Ambulatory seizure forecasting with a wrist-worn device using long-short term memory deep learning

User experience of a seizure risk forecasting app: A mixed methods investigation

OBJECTIVE

Over recent years, there has been a growing interest in exploring the utility of seizure risk forecasting, particularly how it could improve quality of life for people living with epilepsy. This study reports on user experiences and perspectives of a seizure risk forecaster app, as well as the potential impact on mood and adjustment to epilepsy.

METHODS

Active app users were asked to complete a survey (baseline and 3-month follow-up) to assess perspectives on the forecast feature as well as mood and adjustment. Post-hoc, nine neutral forecast users (neither agreed nor disagreed it was useful) completed semi-structured interviews, to gain further insight into their perspectives of epilepsy management and seizure forecasting. Non-parametric statistical tests and inductive thematic analyses were used to analyse the quantitative and qualitative data, respectively.

RESULTS

Surveys were completed by 111 users. Responders consisted of "app users" (n = 58), and "app and forecast users" (n = 53). Of the "app and forecast users", 40 % believed the forecast was accurate enough to be useful in monitoring for seizure risk, and 60 % adopted it for purposes like scheduling activities and helping mental state. Feeling more in control was the most common response to both high and low risk forecasted states. In-depth interviews revealed five broad themes, of which 'frustrations with lack of direction' (regarding their current epilepsy management approach), 'benefits of increased self-knowledge' and 'current and anticipated usefulness of forecasting' were the most common.

SIGNIFICANCE

Preliminary results suggest that seizure risk forecasting can be a useful tool for people with epilepsy to make lifestyle changes, such as scheduling daily events, and experience greater feelings of control. These improvements may be attributed, at least partly, to the improvements in self-knowledge experienced through forecast use.

Autonomic biosignals, seizure detection, and forecasting

Wearable devices have attracted significant attention in epilepsy research in recent years for their potential to enhance patient care through improved seizure monitoring and forecasting. This narrative review presents a detailed overview of the current clinical state of the art while addressing how devices that assess autonomic nervous system (ANS) function reflect seizures and central nervous system (CNS) state changes. This includes a description of the interactions between the CNS and the ANS, including physiological and epilepsy-related changes affecting their dynamics. We first discuss technical aspects of measuring autonomic biosignals and considerations for using ANS sensors in clinical practice. We then review recent seizure detection and seizure forecasting studies, highlighting their performance and capability for seizure detection and forecasting using devices measuring ANS biomarkers. Finally, we address the field's challenges and provide an outlook for future developments.

Prospective validation of a seizure diary forecasting falls short

OBJECTIVE

Recently, a deep learning artificial intelligence (AI) model forecasted seizure risk using retrospective seizure diaries with higher accuracy than random forecasts. The present study sought to prospectively evaluate the same algorithm.

METHODS

We recruited a prospective cohort of 46 people with epilepsy; 25 completed sufficient data entry for analysis (median = 5 months). We used the same AI method as in our prior study. Group-level and individual-level Brier Skill Scores (BSSs) compared random forecasts and simple moving average forecasts to the AI.

RESULTS

The AI had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .82. At the group level, the AI outperformed random forecasting (BSS = .53). At the individual level, AI outperformed random in 28% of cases. At the group and individual level, the moving average outperformed the AI. If pre-enrollment (nonverified) diaries (with presumed underreporting) were included, the AI significantly outperformed both comparators. Surveys showed most did not mind poor-quality LOW-RISK or HIGH-RISK forecasts, yet 91% wanted access to these forecasts.

SIGNIFICANCE

The previously developed AI forecasting tool did not outperform a very simple moving average forecasting in this prospective cohort, suggesting that the AI model should be replaced.

Detection of focal to bilateral tonic-clonic seizures using a connected shirt

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to develop and evaluate a machine learning-based algorithm for the detection of focal to bilateral tonic-clonic seizures (FBTCS) using a novel multimodal connected shirt.

METHODS

We prospectively recruited patients with epilepsy admitted to our epilepsy monitoring unit and asked them to wear the connected shirt while under simultaneous video-electroencephalographic monitoring. Electrocardiographic (ECG) and accelerometric (ACC) signals recorded with the connected shirt were used for the development of the seizure detection algorithm. First, we used a sliding window to extract linear and nonlinear features from both ECG and ACC signals. Then, we trained an extreme gradient boosting algorithm (XGBoost) to detect FBTCS according to seizure onset and offset annotated by three board-certified epileptologists. Finally, we applied a postprocessing step to regularize the classification output. A patientwise nested cross-validation was implemented to evaluate the performances in terms of sensitivity, false alarm rate (FAR), time in false warning (TiW), detection latency, and receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC).

RESULTS

We recorded 66 FBTCS from 42 patients who wore the connected shirt for a total of 8067 continuous hours. The XGBoost algorithm reached a sensitivity of 84.8% (56/66 seizures), with a median FAR of .55/24 h and a median TiW of 10 s/alarm. ROC-AUC was .90 (95% confidence interval = .88-.91). Median detection latency from the time of progression to the bilateral tonic-clonic phase was 25.5 s.

SIGNIFICANCE

The novel connected shirt allowed accurate detection of FBTCS with a low false alarm rate in a hospital setting. Prospective studies in a residential setting with a real-time and online seizure detection algorithm are required to validate the performance and usability of this device.

Necessary for seizure forecasting outcome metrics: seizure frequency and benchmark model

Work is ongoing to advance seizure forecasting, but the performance metrics used to evaluate model effectiveness can sometimes lead to misleading outcomes. For example, some metrics improve when tested on patients with a particular range of seizure frequencies (SF). This study illustrates the connection between SF and metrics. Additionally, we compared benchmarks for testing performance: a moving average (MA) or the commonly used permutation benchmark. Three data sets were used for the evaluations: (1) Self-reported seizure diaries of 3,994 Seizure Tracker patients; (2) Automatically detected (and sometimes manually reported or edited) generalized tonic-clonic seizures from 2,350 Empatica Embrace 2 and Mate App seizure diary users, and (3) Simulated datasets with varying SFs. Metrics of calibration and discrimination were computed for each dataset, comparing MA and permutation performance across SF values. Most metrics were found to depend on SF. The MA model outperformed or matched the permutation model in all cases. The findings highlight SF's role in seizure forecasting accuracy and the MA model's suitability as a benchmark. This underscores the need for considering patient SF in forecasting studies and suggests the MA model may provide a better standard for evaluating future seizure forecasting models.

Human Activity Recognition Algorithm with Physiological and Inertial Signals Fusion: Photoplethysmography, Electrodermal Activity, and Accelerometry

Inertial signals are the most widely used signals in human activity recognition (HAR) applications, and extensive research has been performed on developing HAR classifiers using accelerometer and gyroscope data. This study aimed to investigate the potential enhancement of HAR models through the fusion of biological signals with inertial signals. The classification of eight common low-, medium-, and high-intensity activities was assessed using machine learning (ML) algorithms, trained on accelerometer (ACC), blood volume pulse (BVP), and electrodermal activity (EDA) data obtained from a wrist-worn sensor. Two types of ML algorithms were employed: a random forest (RF) trained on features; and a pre-trained deep learning (DL) network (ResNet-18) trained on spectrogram images. Evaluation was conducted on both individual activities and more generalized activity groups, based on similar intensity. Results indicated that RF classifiers outperformed corresponding DL classifiers at both individual and grouped levels. However, the fusion of EDA and BVP signals with ACC data improved DL classifier performance compared to a baseline DL model with ACC-only data. The best performance was achieved by a classifier trained on a combination of ACC, EDA, and BVP images, yielding F1-scores of 69 and 87 for individual and grouped activity classifications, respectively. For DL models trained with additional biological signals, almost all individual activity classifications showed improvement (p-value < 0.05). In grouped activity classifications, DL model performance was enhanced for low- and medium-intensity activities. Exploring the classification of two specific activities, ascending/descending stairs and cycling, revealed significantly improved results using a DL model trained on combined ACC, BVP, and EDA spectrogram images (p-value < 0.05).

Advancements in Wearable Digital Health Technology: A Review of Epilepsy Management

This review explores recent advancements in wearable digital health technology specifically designed to manage epilepsy. Epilepsy presents unique challenges in monitoring and management due to the unpredictable nature of seizures. Wearable devices offer continuous monitoring and real-time data collection, providing insights into seizure patterns and trends. Wearable technology is important in epilepsy management because it enables early detection, prediction, and personalized intervention, empowering patients and healthcare providers. Key findings highlight the potential of wearable devices to improve seizure detection accuracy, enhance patient empowerment through real-time monitoring, and facilitate data-driven decision-making in clinical practice. However, further research is needed to validate the accuracy and reliability of these devices across diverse patient populations and clinical settings. Collaborative efforts between researchers, clinicians, technology developers, and patients are essential to drive innovation and advancements in wearable digital health technology for epilepsy management, ultimately improving outcomes and quality of life for individuals with this neurological condition.

Real-Time Seizure Detection Using Behind-the-Ear Wearable System

INTRODUCTION

This study examines the usability and comfort of a behind-the-ear seizure detection device called brain seizure detection (BrainSD) that captures ictal electroencephalogram (EEG) data using four scalp electrodes.

METHODS

This is a feasibility study. Thirty-two patients admitted to a level 4 Epilepsy Monitoring Unit were enrolled. The subjects wore BrainSD and the standard 21-channel video-EEG simultaneously. Epileptologists analyzed the EEG signals collected by BrainSD and validated it using video-EEG data to confirm its accuracy. A poststudy survey was completed by each participant to evaluate the comfort and usability of the device. In addition, a focus group of UT Southwestern epileptologists was held to discuss the features they would like to see in a home EEG-based seizure detection device such as BrainSD.

RESULTS

In total, BrainSD captured 11 of the 14 seizures that occurred while the device was being worn. All 11 seizures captured on BrainSD had focal onset, with three becoming bilateral tonic-clonic and one seizure being of subclinical status. The device was worn for an average of 41 hours. The poststudy survey showed that most users found the device comfortable, easy-to-use, and stated they would be interested in using BrainSD. Epileptologists in the focus group expressed a similar interest in BrainSD.

CONCLUSIONS

Brain seizure detection is able to detect EEG signals using four behind-the-ear electrodes. Its comfort, ease-of-use, and ability to detect numerous types of seizures make BrainSD an acceptable at-home EEG detection device from both the patient and provider perspective.

Prospective validation of a seizure diary forecasting falls short

OBJECTIVE

Recently, a deep learning AI model forecasted seizure risk using retrospective seizure diaries with higher accuracy than random forecasts. The present study sought to prospectively evaluate the same algorithm.

METHODS

We recruited a prospective cohort of 46 people with epilepsy; 25 completed sufficient data entry for analysis (median 5 months). We used the same AI method as in our prior study. Group-level and individual-level Brier Skill Scores (BSS) compared random forecasts and simple moving average forecasts to the AI.

RESULTS

The AI had an AUC of 0.82. At the group level, the AI outperformed random forecasting (BSS=0.53). At the individual level, AI outperformed random in 28% of cases. At the group and individual level, the moving average outperformed the AI. If pre-enrollment (non-verified) diaries (with presumed under-reporting) were included, the AI significantly outperformed both comparators. Surveys showed most did not mind poor quality LOW-RISK or HIGH-RISK forecasts, yet 91% wanted access to these forecasts.

SIGNIFICANCE

The previously developed AI forecasting tool did not outperform a very simple moving average forecasting this prospective cohort, suggesting that the AI model should be replaced.

SmartWear body sensors for neurological and neurosurgical patients: A review of current and future technologies

Background/objective

Recent technological advances have allowed for the development of smart wearable devices (SmartWear) which can be used to monitor various aspects of patient healthcare. These devices provide clinicians with continuous biometric data collection for patients in both inpatient and outpatient settings. Although these devices have been widely used in fields such as cardiology and orthopedics, their use in the field of neurosurgery and neurology remains in its infancy.

Methods

A comprehensive literature search for the current and future applications of SmartWear devices in the above conditions was conducted, focusing on outpatient monitoring.

Findings

Through the integration of sensors which measure parameters such as physical activity, hemodynamic variables, and electrical conductivity - these devices have been applied to patient populations such as those at risk for stroke, suffering from epilepsy, with neurodegenerative disease, with spinal cord injury and/or recovering from neurosurgical procedures. Further, these devices are being tested in various clinical trials and there is a demonstrated interest in the development of new technologies.

Conclusion

This review provides an in-depth evaluation of the use of SmartWear in selected neurological diseases and neurosurgical applications. It is clear that these devices have demonstrated efficacy in a variety of neurological and neurosurgical applications, however challenges such as data privacy and management must be addressed.

Seizure forecasting: Bifurcations in the long and winding road

To date, the unpredictability of seizures remains a source of suffering for people with epilepsy, motivating decades of research into methods to forecast seizures. Originally, only few scientists and neurologists ventured into this niche endeavor, which, given the difficulty of the task, soon turned into a long and winding road. Over the past decade, however, our narrow field has seen a major acceleration, with trials of chronic electroencephalographic devices and the subsequent discovery of cyclical patterns in the occurrence of seizures. Now, a burgeoning science of seizure timing is emerging, which in turn informs best forecasting strategies for upcoming clinical trials. Although the finish line might be in view, many challenges remain to make seizure forecasting a reality. This review covers the most recent scientific, technical, and medical developments, discusses methodology in detail, and sets a number of goals for future studies.

Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Applications to Epilepsy: a Review for the Practicing Epileptologist

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are data-driven techniques to translate raw data into applicable and interpretable insights that can assist in clinical decision making. Some of these tools have extremely promising initial results, earning both great excitement and creating hype. This non-technical article reviews recent developments in ML/AI in epilepsy to assist the current practicing epileptologist in understanding both the benefits and limitations of integrating ML/AI tools into their clinical practice.

RECENT FINDINGS

ML/AI tools have been developed to assist clinicians in almost every clinical decision including (1) predicting future epilepsy in people at risk, (2) detecting and monitoring for seizures, (3) differentiating epilepsy from mimics, (4) using data to improve neuroanatomic localization and lateralization, and (5) tracking and predicting response to medical and surgical treatments. We also discuss practical, ethical, and equity considerations in the development and application of ML/AI tools including chatbots based on Large Language Models (e.g., ChatGPT). ML/AI tools will change how clinical medicine is practiced, but, with rare exceptions, the transferability to other centers, effectiveness, and safety of these approaches have not yet been established rigorously. In the future, ML/AI will not replace epileptologists, but epileptologists with ML/AI will replace epileptologists without ML/AI.

Seizure forecasting using minimally invasive, ultra-long-term subcutaneous electroencephalography: Individualized intrapatient models

OBJECTIVE

One of the most disabling aspects of living with chronic epilepsy is the unpredictability of seizures. Cumulative research in the past decades has advanced our understanding of the dynamics of seizure risk. Technological advances have recently made it possible to record pertinent biological signals, including electroencephalogram (EEG), continuously. We aimed to assess whether patient-specific seizure forecasting is possible using remote, minimally invasive ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG.

METHODS

We analyzed a two-center cohort of ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG recordings, including six patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy monitored for 46-230 days with median 18 h/day of recorded data, totaling >11 000 h of EEG. Total electrographic seizures identified by visual review ranged from 12 to 36 per patient. Three candidate subject-specific long short-term memory network deep learning classifiers were trained offline and pseudoprospectively on preictal (1 h before) and interictal (>1 day from seizures) EEG segments. Performance was assessed relative to a random predictor. Periodicity of the final forecasts was also investigated with autocorrelation.

RESULTS

Depending on each architecture, significant forecasting performance was achieved in three to five of six patients, with overall mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .65-.74. Significant forecasts showed sensitivity ranging from 64% to 80% and time in warning from 10.9% to 44.4%. Overall, the output of the forecasts closely followed patient-specific circadian patterns of seizure occurrence.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates proof-of-principle for the possibility of subject-specific seizure forecasting using a minimally invasive subcutaneous EEG device capable of ultra-long-term at-home recordings. These results are encouraging for the development of a prospective seizure forecasting trial with minimally invasive EEG.

Seizure forecasting: Where do we stand?

A lot of mileage has been made recently on the long and winding road toward seizure forecasting. Here we briefly review some selected milestones passed along the way, which were discussed at the International Conference for Technology and Analysis of Seizures-ICTALS 2022-convened at the University of Bern, Switzerland. Major impetus was gained recently from wearable and implantable devices that record not only electroencephalography, but also data on motor behavior, acoustic signals, and various signals of the autonomic nervous system. This multimodal monitoring can be performed for ultralong timescales covering months or years. Accordingly, features and metrics extracted from these data now assess seizure dynamics with a greater degree of completeness. Most prominently, this has allowed the confirmation of the long-suspected cyclical nature of interictal epileptiform activity, seizure risk, and seizures. The timescales cover daily, multi-day, and yearly cycles. Progress has also been fueled by approaches originating from the interdisciplinary field of network science. Considering epilepsy as a large-scale network disorder yielded novel perspectives on the pre-ictal dynamics of the evolving epileptic brain. In addition to discrete predictions that a seizure will take place in a specified prediction horizon, the community broadened the scope to probabilistic forecasts of a seizure risk evolving continuously in time. This shift of gears triggered the incorporation of additional metrics to quantify the performance of forecasting algorithms, which should be compared to the chance performance of constrained stochastic null models. An imminent task of utmost importance is to find optimal ways to communicate the output of seizure-forecasting algorithms to patients, caretakers, and clinicians, so that they can have socioeconomic impact and improve patients' well-being.

Artificial intelligence-enhanced epileptic seizure detection by wearables

OBJECTIVE

Wrist- or ankle-worn devices are less intrusive than the widely used electroencephalographic (EEG) systems for monitoring epileptic seizures. Using custom-developed deep-learning seizure detection models, we demonstrate the detection of a broad range of seizure types by wearable signals.

METHODS

Patients admitted to the epilepsy monitoring unit were enrolled and asked to wear wearable sensors on either wrists or ankles. We collected patients' electrodermal activity, accelerometry (ACC), and photoplethysmography, from which blood volume pulse (BVP) is derived. Board-certified epileptologists determined seizure onset, offset, and types using video and EEG recordings per the International League Against Epilepsy 2017 classification. We applied three neural network models-a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a CNN-long short-term memory (LSTM)-based generalized detection model and an autoencoder-based personalized detection model-to the raw time-series sensor data to detect seizures and utilized performance measures, including sensitivity, false positive rate (the number of false alarms divided by the total number of nonseizure segments), number of false alarms per day, and detection delay. We applied a 10-fold patientwise cross-validation scheme to the multisignal biosensor data and evaluated model performance on 28 seizure types.

RESULTS

We analyzed 166 patients (47.6% female, median age = 10.0 years) and 900 seizures (13 254 h of sensor data) for 28 seizure types. With a CNN-LSTM-based seizure detection model, ACC, BVP, and their fusion performed better than chance; ACC and BVP data fusion reached the best detection performance of 83.9% sensitivity and 35.3% false positive rate. Nineteen of 28 seizure types could be detected by at least one data modality with area under receiver operating characteristic curve > .8 performance.

SIGNIFICANCE

Results from this in-hospital study contribute to a paradigm shift in epilepsy care that entails noninvasive seizure detection, provides time-sensitive and accurate data on additional clinical seizure types, and proposes a novel combination of an out-of-the-box monitoring algorithm with an individualized person-oriented seizure detection approach.

Seizure forecasting using minimally invasive, ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG: Generalizable cross-patient models

This study describes a generalized cross-patient seizure-forecasting approach using recurrent neural networks with ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG (sqEEG) recordings. Data from six patients diagnosed with refractory epilepsy and monitored with an sqEEG device were used to develop a generalized algorithm for seizure forecasting using long short-term memory (LSTM) deep-learning classifiers. Electrographic seizures were identified by a board-certified epileptologist. One-minute data segments were labeled as preictal or interictal based on their relationship to confirmed seizures. Data were separated into training and testing data sets, and to compensate for the unbalanced data ratio in training, noise-added copies of preictal data segments were generated to expand the training data set. The mean and standard deviation (SD) of the training data were used to normalize all data, preserving the pseudo-prospective nature of the analysis. Different architecture classifiers were trained and tested using a leave-one-patient-out cross-validation method, and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance classifiers. The importance of each input signal was evaluated using a leave-one-signal-out method with repeated training and testing for each classifier. Cross-patient classifiers achieved performance significantly better than chance in four of the six patients and an overall mean AUC of 0.602 ± 0.126 (mean ± SD). A time in warning of 37.386% ± 5.006% (mean ± std) and sensitivity of 0.691 ± 0.068 (mean ± std) were observed for patients with better than chance results. Analysis of input channels showed a significant contribution (p < .05) by the Fourier transform of signals channels to overall classifier performance. The relative contribution of input signals varied among patients and architectures, suggesting that the inclusion of all signals contributes to robustness in a cross-patient classifier. These early results show that it is possible to forecast seizures training with data from different patients using two-channel ultra-long-term sqEEG.

Can heart rate variability identify a high-risk state of upcoming seizure?

Heart rate variability (HRV) is an accessible and convenient means to assess the sympathetic/parasympathetic balance. Autonomic dysfunctions may reflect a pro-ictal state and occur before the seizure onset. Previous studies have reported HRV-based models to identify preictal states in continuous electrocardiogram (EKG) monitoring. Here, we evaluated the ability of HRV metrics extracted from daily single resting-state periods to estimate the risk of upcoming seizure(s) using probabilistic forecasts. Daily standardized 10-min vigilance-controlled EKG periods were recorded in 15 patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy who underwent intracerebral electroencephalography (EEG). Analyses of a total of 156 periods, based on machine learning approaches, suggested that HRV features can identify preictal states with a median AUC of 0.75 [0.68;0.99]. Pseudoprospective daily forecasts yielded a median Brier score of 0.3 [0.18;0.48]. About 60% of preictal days were correctly forecasted, while false positive predictions were noticed in 24% of interictal days. Daily resting HRV seems to capture information on autonomic variations that may reflect a pro-ictal state. The method could be embedded in an ambulatory clinical seizure prediction device, but additional modalities (prodromes, EEG-based features, etc.) should be associated to improve its performance.

The evolution of antiseizure medication therapy selection in adults: Is artificial intelligence -assisted antiseizure medication selection ready for prime time?

Antiseizure medications (ASMs) are the mainstay of symptomatic epilepsy treatment. The primary goal of pharmacotherapy with ASMs in epilepsy is to achieve complete seizure remission while minimizing therapy-related adverse events. Over the years, more ASMs have been introduced, with approximately 30 now in everyday use. With such a wide variety, much guidance is needed in choosing ASMs for initial therapy, subsequent replacement monotherapy, or adjunctive therapy. The specific ASMs are typically tailored by the patient's related factors, including epilepsy syndrome, age, sex, comorbidities, and ASM characteristics, including the spectrum of efficacy, pharmacokinetic properties, safety, and tolerability. Weighing these key clinical variables requires experience and expertise that may be limited. Furthermore, with this approach, patients may endure multiple trials of ineffective treatments before the most appropriate ASM is found. A more reliable way to predict response to different ASMs is needed so that the most effective and tolerated ASM can be selected. Soon, alternative approaches, such as deep machine learning (ML), could aid the individualized selection of the first and subsequent ASMs. The recognition of epilepsy as a network disorder and the integration of personalized epilepsy networks in future ML platforms can also facilitate the prediction of ASM response. Augmenting the conventional approach with artificial intelligence (AI) opens the door to personalized pharmacotherapy in epilepsy. However, more work is needed before these models are ready for primetime clinical practice.

Perceived seizure risk in epilepsy: Chronic electronic surveys with and without concurrent electroencephalography

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies suggested that patients with epilepsy might be able to forecast their own seizures. This study aimed to assess the relationships between premonitory symptoms, perceived seizure risk, and future and recent self-reported and electroencephalographically (EEG)-confirmed seizures in ambulatory patients with epilepsy in their natural home environments.

METHODS

Long-term e-surveys were collected from patients with and without concurrent EEG recordings. Information obtained from the e-surveys included medication adherence, sleep quality, mood, stress, perceived seizure risk, and seizure occurrences preceding the survey. EEG seizures were identified. Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the assessment of the relationships. Results were compared with the seizure forecasting classifiers and device forecasting literature using a mathematical formula converting OR to equivalent area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Fifty-four subjects returned 10 269 e-survey entries, with four subjects acquiring concurrent EEG recordings. Univariate analysis revealed that increased stress (OR = 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12-3.61, AUC = .61, p = .02) was associated with increased relative odds of future self-reported seizures. Multivariate analysis showed that previous self-reported seizures (OR = 5.37, 95% CI = 3.53-8.16, AUC = .76, p < .001) were most strongly associated with future self-reported seizures, and high perceived seizure risk (OR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.87-5.95, AUC = .69, p < .001) remained significant when prior self-reported seizures were added to the model. No correlation with medication adherence was found. No significant association was found between e-survey responses and subsequent EEG seizures.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our results suggest that patients may tend to self-forecast seizures that occur in sequential groupings and that low mood and increased stress may be the result of previous seizures rather than independent premonitory symptoms. Patients in the small cohort with concurrent EEG showed no ability to self-predict EEG seizures. The conversion from OR to AUC values facilitates direct comparison of performance between survey and device studies involving survey premonition and forecasting.

Forecasting seizure likelihood from cycles of self-reported events and heart rate: a prospective pilot study

BACKGROUND

Seizure risk forecasting could reduce injuries and even deaths in people with epilepsy. There is great interest in using non-invasive wearable devices to generate forecasts of seizure risk. Forecasts based on cycles of epileptic activity, seizure times or heart rate have provided promising forecasting results. This study validates a forecasting method using multimodal cycles recorded from wearable devices.

METHOD

Seizure and heart rate cycles were extracted from 13 participants. The mean period of heart rate data from a smartwatch was 562 days, with a mean of 125 self-reported seizures from a smartphone app. The relationship between seizure onset time and phases of seizure and heart rate cycles was investigated. An additive regression model was used to project heart rate cycles. The results of forecasts using seizure cycles, heart rate cycles, and a combination of both were compared. Forecasting performance was evaluated in 6 of 13 participants in a prospective setting, using long-term data collected after algorithms were developed.

FINDINGS

The results showed that the best forecasts achieved a mean area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 for 9/13 participants showing performance above chance during retrospective validation. Subject-specific forecasts evaluated with prospective data showed a mean AUC of 0.77 with 4/6 participants showing performance above chance.

INTERPRETATION

The results of this study demonstrate that cycles detected from multimodal data can be combined within a single, scalable seizure risk forecasting algorithm to provide robust performance. The presented forecasting method enabled seizure risk to be estimated for an arbitrary future period and could be generalised across a range of data types. In contrast to earlier work, the current study evaluated forecasts prospectively, in subjects blinded to their seizure risk outputs, representing a critical step towards clinical applications.

FUNDING

This study was funded by an Australian Government National Health & Medical Research Council and BioMedTech Horizons grant. The study also received support from the Epilepsy Foundation of America's 'My Seizure Gauge' grant.

Perceived seizure risk in epilepsy â€" Chronic electronic surveys with and without concurrent EEG

Objective

Previous studies suggested that patients with epilepsy might be able to fore-cast their own seizures. We sought to assess the relationships of premonitory symptoms and perceived seizure risk with future and recent self-reported and EEG-confirmed seizures in the subjects living with epilepsy in their natural home environments.

Methods

We collected long-term e-surveys from ambulatory patients with and without concurrent EEG recordings. Information obtained from the e-surveys included medication compliance, sleep quality, mood, stress, perceived seizure risk and seizure occurrences preceding the survey. EEG seizures were identified. Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the assessment of the relationships. Results were compared with device seizure forecasting literature using a mathematical formula converting OR to equivalent area under the curve (AUC).

Results

Sixty-nine subjects returned 12,590 e-survey entries, with four subjects acquiring concurrent EEG recordings. Univariate analysis revealed increased stress (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = [1.52, 4.14], p < 0.001) and decreased mood (0.32, [0.13, 0.82], 0.02) were associated with increased relative odds of future self-reported seizures. On multivariate analysis, previous self-reported seizures (4.24, [2.69, 6.68], < 0.001) were most strongly associated with future self-reported seizures, and high perceived seizure risk (3.30, [1.97, 5.52], < 0.001) remained significant when prior self-reported seizures were added to the model. No significant association was found between e-survey responses and subsequent EEG seizures.

Significance

It appears that patients may tend to self-forecast seizures that occur in sequential groupings. Our results suggest that low mood and increased stress may be the result of previous seizures rather than independent premonitory symptoms. Patients in the small cohort with concurrent EEG showed no ability to self-predict EEG seizures. The conversion from OR to AUC values facilitates direct comparison of performance between survey and device studies involving survey premonition and forecasting.

Key points

Long-term e-surveys data and concurrent EEG signals were collected across three study sites to assess the ability of the patients to self-forecast their seizures.Patients may tend to self-forecast self-reported seizures that occur in sequential groupings.Factors, such as mood and stress, may not be independent premonitory symptoms but may be the consequence of recent seizures.No ability to self-forecast EEG confirmed seizures was observed in a small cohort with concurrent EEG validation.A mathematic relation between OR and AUC provides a means to compare forecasting performance between survey and device studies.

Systemic inflammation as a biomarker of seizure propensity and a target for treatment to reduce seizure propensity

People with diabetes can wear a device that measures blood glucose and delivers just the amount of insulin needed to return the glucose level to within bounds. Currently, people with epilepsy do not have access to an equivalent wearable device that measures a systemic indicator of an impending seizure and delivers a rapidly acting medication or other intervention (e.g., an electrical stimulus) to terminate or prevent a seizure. Given that seizure susceptibility is reliably increased in systemic inflammatory states, we propose a novel closed-loop device where release of a fast-acting therapy is governed by sensors that quantify the magnitude of systemic inflammation. Here, we review the evidence that patients with epilepsy have raised levels of systemic indicators of inflammation than controls, and that some anti-inflammatory drugs have reduced seizure occurrence in animals and humans. We then consider the options of what might be incorporated into a responsive anti-seizure system.

Seizure count forecasting to aid diagnostic testing in epilepsy

OBJECTIVE

Epilepsy monitoring unit (EMU) admissions are critical for presurgical evaluation of drug-resistant epilepsy but may be nondiagnostic if an insufficient number of seizures are recorded. Seizure forecasting algorithms have shown promise for estimating the likelihood of seizures as a binary event in individual patients, but methods to predict how many seizures will occur remain elusive. Such methods could increase the diagnostic yield of EMU admissions and help patients mitigate seizure-related morbidity. Here, we evaluated the performance of a state-space method that uses prior seizure count data to predict future counts.

METHODS

A Bayesian negative-binomial dynamic linear model (DLM) was developed to forecast daily electrographic seizure counts in 19 patients implanted with a responsive neurostimulation (RNS) device. Holdout validation was used to evaluate performance in predicting the number of electrographic seizures for forecast horizons ranging 1-7 days ahead.

RESULTS

One-day-ahead prediction of the number of electrographic seizures using a negative-binomial DLM resulted in improvement over chance in 73.1% of time segments compared to a random chance forecaster and remained >50% for forecast horizons of up to 7 days. Superior performance (mean error = .99) was obtained in predicting the number of electrographic seizures in the next day compared to three traditional methods for count forecasting (integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model or INGARCH, 1.10; Croston, 1.06; generalized linear autoregressive moving average model or GLARMA, 2.00). Number of electrographic seizures in the preceding day and laterality of electrographic pattern detections had highest predictive value, with greater number of electrographic seizures and RNS magnet swipes in the preceding day associated with a higher number of electrographic seizures the next day.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates that DLMs can predict the number of electrographic seizures a patient will experience days in advance with above chance accuracy. This study represents an important step toward the translation of seizure forecasting methods into the optimization of EMU admissions.

Forecasting psychogenic non-epileptic seizure likelihood from ambulatory EEG and ECG

Objective.Critical slowing features (variance and autocorrelation) of long-term continuous electroencephalography (EEG) and electrocardiography (ECG) data have previously been used to forecast epileptic seizure onset. This study tested the feasibility of forecasting non-epileptic seizures using the same methods. In doing so, we examined if long-term cycles of brain and cardiac activity are present in clinical physiological recordings of psychogenic non-epileptic seizures (PNES).Approach.Retrospectively accessed ambulatory EEG and ECG data from 15 patients with non-epileptic seizures and no background of epilepsy were used for developing the forecasting system. The median period of recordings was 161 h, with a median of 7 non-epileptic seizures per patient. The phases of different cycles (5 min, 1 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h) of EEG and RR interval (RRI) critical slowing features were investigated. Forecasters were generated using combinations of the variance and autocorrelation of both EEG and the RRI of the ECG at each of the aforementioned cycle lengths. Optimal forecasters were selected as those with the highest area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC).Main results.It was found that PNES events occurred in the rising phases of EEG feature cycles of 12 and 24 h in duration at a rate significantly above chance. We demonstrated that the proposed forecasters achieved performance significantly better than chance in 8/15 of patients, and the mean AUC of the best forecaster across patients was 0.79.Significance.To our knowledge, this is the first study to retrospectively forecast non-epileptic seizures using both EEG and ECG data. The significance of EEG in the forecasting models suggests that cyclic EEG features of non-epileptic seizures exist. This study opens the potential of seizure forecasting beyond epilepsy, into other disorders of episodic loss of consciousness or dissociation.

Translational gaps and opportunities for medical wearables in digital health

A confluence of advances in biosensor technologies, enhancements in health care delivery mechanisms, and improvements in machine learning, together with an increased awareness of remote patient monitoring, has accelerated the impact of digital health across nearly every medical discipline. Medical grade wearables-noninvasive, on-body sensors operating with clinical accuracy-will play an increasingly central role in medicine by providing continuous, cost-effective measurement and interpretation of physiological data relevant to patient status and disease trajectory, both inside and outside of established health care settings. Here, we review current digital health technologies and highlight critical gaps to clinical translation and adoption.

Utilizing Data from Wearable Technologies in the Era of Telemedicine to Assess Patient Function and Outcomes in Neurosurgery: Systematic Review and Time-Trend Analysis of the Literature

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has driven the increased use of telemedicine and the adoption of wearable technology in neurosurgery. We reviewed studies exploring the use of wearables on neurosurgical patients and analyzed wearables' scientific production trends.

METHODS

The review encompassed PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Bibliometric analysis was performed using citation data of the included studies through Elsevier's Scopus database. Linear regression was utilized to understand scientific production trends. All analyses were performed on R 4.1.2.

RESULTS

We identified 979 studies. After screening, 49 studies were included. Most studies evaluated wearable technology use for patients with spinal pathology (n = 31). The studies were published over a 24-year period (1998-2021). Forty-seven studies involved wearable device use relevant to telemedicine. Bibliometric analysis revealed a compounded annual growth rate of 7.3%, adjusted for inflation, in annual scientific production from 1998 to 2021 (coefficient=1.3; 95% Confidence Interval = [0.7, 1.9], P < 0.01). Scientific production steadily increased in 2014 (n = 1) and peaked from 2019 (n = 8) to 2021 (n = 13) in correlation with the COVID-19 pandemic. Publications spanned 34 journals, averaged 24.4 citations per article, 3.0 citations per year per article, and 8.3 authors per article.

CONCLUSION

Wearables can provide clinicians with objective measurements to determine patient function and quality of life. The rise in articles related to wearables in neurosurgery demonstrates the increased adoption of wearable devices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Wearable devices appear to be a key component in this era of telemedicine and their positive utility and practicality are increasingly being realized in neurosurgery.

Seizure Detection and Prediction by Parallel Memristive Convolutional Neural Networks

During the past two decades, epileptic seizure detection and prediction algorithms have evolved rapidly. However, despite significant performance improvements, their hardware implementation using conventional technologies, such as Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS), in power and area-constrained settings remains a challenging task; especially when many recording channels are used. In this paper, we propose a novel low-latency parallel Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architecture that has between 2-2,800x fewer network parameters compared to State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) CNN architectures and achieves 5-fold cross validation accuracy of 99.84% for epileptic seizure detection, and 99.01% and 97.54% for epileptic seizure prediction, when evaluated using the University of Bonn Electroencephalogram (EEG), CHB-MIT and SWEC-ETHZ seizure datasets, respectively. We subsequently implement our network onto analog crossbar arrays comprising Resistive Random-Access Memory (RRAM) devices, and provide a comprehensive benchmark by simulating, laying out, and determining hardware requirements of the CNN component of our system. We parallelize the execution of convolution layer kernels on separate analog crossbars to enable 2 orders of magnitude reduction in latency compared to SOTA hybrid Memristive-CMOS Deep Learning (DL) accelerators. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of non-idealities on our system and investigate Quantization Aware Training (QAT) to mitigate the performance degradation due to low Analog-to-Digital Converter (ADC)/Digital-to-Analog Converter (DAC) resolution. Finally, we propose a stuck weight offsetting methodology to mitigate performance degradation due to stuck [Formula: see text] memristor weights, recovering up to 32% accuracy, without requiring retraining. The CNN component of our platform is estimated to consume approximately 2.791 W of power while occupying an area of 31.255 mm² in a 22 nm FDSOI CMOS process.

More to Less (M2L): Enhanced Health Recognition in the Wild with Reduced Modality of Wearable Sensors

Accurately recognizing health-related conditions from wearable data is crucial for improved healthcare outcomes. To improve the recognition accuracy, various approaches have focused on how to effectively fuse information from multiple sensors. Fusing multiple sensors is a common choice in many applications, but may not always be feasible in real-world scenarios. For example, although combining biosignals from multiple sensors (i.e., a chest pad sensor and a wrist wearable sensor) has been proved effective for improved performance, wearing multiple devices might be impractical in the free-living context. To solve the challenges, we propose an effective more to less (M2L) learning framework to improve testing performance with reduced sensors through leveraging the complementary information of multiple modalities during training. More specifically, different sensors may carry different but complementary information, and our model is designed to enforce collaborations among different modalities, where positive knowledge transfer is encouraged and negative knowledge transfer is suppressed, so that better representation is learned for individual modalities. Our experimental results show that our framework achieves comparable performance when compared with the full modalities. Our code and results will be available at https://github.com/comp-well-org/More2Less.git.