Age-period-cohort analysis of stroke mortality attributable to high systolic blood pressure in China and Japan

Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen

Background

This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.

Methods

Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.

Results

Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027.

Conclusions

Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Clinical features and FLAIR radiomics nomogram for predicting functional outcomes after thrombolysis in ischaemic stroke

Objective

We explored whether radiomics features extracted from diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images can predict the clinical outcome of patients with acute ischaemic stroke. This study was conducted to investigate and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting acute ischaemic stroke prognosis.

Methods

A total of 257 patients with acute ischaemic stroke from three clinical centres were retrospectively assessed from February 2019 to July 2022. According to the modified Rankin scale (mRS) at 3 months, the patients were divided into a favourable outcome group (mRS of 0-2) and an unfavourable outcome group (mRS of 3-6). The high-throughput features from the regions of interest (ROIs) within the radiologist-drawn contour by AK software were extracted. We used two feature selection methods, minimum redundancy and maximum (mRMR) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm (LASSO), to select the features. Three radiomics models (DWI, FLAIR, and DWI-FLAIR) were established. A radiomics nomogram with patient characteristics and radiomics signature was built using a multivariate logistic regression model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated in the test and validation sets. Ultimately, decision curve analysis was implemented to assess the clinical value of the nomogram.

Results

The FLAIR, DWI, and DWI-FLAIR radiomics model exhibited good prediction performance, with area under the curve (AUCs) of 0.922 (95% CI: 0.876-0.968), 0.875 (95% CI: 0.815-0.935), and 0.895 (95% CI: 0.840-0.950). The radiomics nomogram with clinical characteristics including the overall cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) burden score, hemorrhagic transformation (HT) and admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (NIHSS) score and the FLAIR Radscore presented good discriminatory potential in the training set (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90-0.98) and test set (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.87-1), which was validated in the validation set 1 (AUC = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88-1) and validation set 2 (AUC = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.768-1). In addition, it demonstrated good calibration, and decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical value of this nomogram.

Conclusion

This non-invasive clinical-FLIAR radiomics nomogram shows good performance in predicting ischaemic stroke prognosis after thrombolysis.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

The global burden of disease attributable to metabolic risks in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019

AIM

Our study aimed to survey the burden of disease attributed to metabolic risks (MRs) and secondary MR from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Using methodological framework of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we reported the global number, age-standardized rate and population attributable fraction of deaths and disability adjusted life years related to MRs and secondary MR. Furthermore, we analyzed the global burden caused by MRs and secondary MR in detail by gender, age, region, country, disease and Socio-demographic Index level.

RESULTS

The number (million) of deaths and DALYs caused by MRs was 18.6 and 462.8 in 2019, with an increase of 43.6 % and 75.0 % since 1990. However, the ASR of deaths and DALYs attributed to MRs had a decrease of 23.3 % and 17.0 % since 1990. The burden caused by MRs and secondary MR raised with age, and the burden was the heaviest in low - and middle-income countries, especially in Middle East & North Africa. For diseases, the heaviest burden attributed to MRs was observed in ischemic heart disease, followed by stroke.

CONCLUSION

The burden of disease attributed to MRs has continued to rise in the past 30 years, particularly for men and low-middle SDI regions. Therefore, the government should take corresponding actions to reduce the impact of MRs on population health.