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Falchetta G, De Cian E, Sue Wing I, Carr D. Global projections of heat exposure of older adults. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3678. [PMID: 38744815 PMCID: PMC11094092 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47197-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 03/24/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations' vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177-246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giacomo Falchetta
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy.
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice, Italy.
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
| | - Enrica De Cian
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice, Italy
- Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University, Venice, Italy
| | - Ian Sue Wing
- Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
| | - Deborah Carr
- Department of Sociology, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
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Xiao L, Wang Q, Ni H, Xu T, Cai X, Dai T, Wang L, Song C, Li Y, Li F, Meng T, Sheng H, Yu X, Zeng Q, Guo P, Zhang X. Effects of temperature anomaly on sperm quality: A multi-center study of 33,234 men. Heliyon 2024; 10:e26765. [PMID: 38434420 PMCID: PMC10907732 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2023] [Revised: 02/17/2024] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Backgrounds Global fertility rates continue to decline and sperm quality is a prime factor affecting male fertility. Both extreme cold and heat have been demonstrated to be associated with decreased sperm quality, but no epidemiological studies have considered human adaptation to long-term temperature. Our aim was to conduct a multi-center retrospective cohort study to investigate exposure-response relationship between temperature anomaly (TA) that deviate from long-term climate patterns and sperm quality. Methods A total of 78,952 semen samples measured in 33,234 donors from 6 provincial human sperm banks in China were collected. This study considered heat and cold acclimatization to prolonged exposure in humans and explored the exposure-response relationship between TAs and sperm quality parameters (sperm concentrations, sperm count, progressive motility, progressive sperm count, total motility and total motile sperm count) during the hot and cold seasons, respectively. Linear mixed models and generalized linear models were built separately for specific centers to pool in a meta-analysis to obtain the pooled effect of TA on sperm quality, considering repeated measurements data structure and spatial heterogeneity. Results We identified an inverted U-shaped exposure-response relationship between TA and sperm quality during the hot season. Significant negative effect of anomalous cold on sperm quality during the hot season was found after additional adjustment for Body mass index, marital status and childbearing history. The heat-related TA in hot season was significantly negatively associated with sperm concentration, progressive sperm count and total motile sperm count (all P-values<0.05). After adjusting the relative humidity, the cold-related TA in cold season was negatively associated with the sperm total motility (P-values<0.05). Conclusions Our results suggest both heat-related and cold-related TAs are associated with decreased sperm quality. The findings highlight the importance of reducing exposure to anomalous temperatures to protect male fertility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lina Xiao
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Qiling Wang
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Male Reproduction and Genetics, Guangzhou, China
- Department of Andrology, Guangdong Provincial Reproductive Science Institute (Guangdong Provincial Fertility Hospital), China
| | - Haobo Ni
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Ting Xu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Xiaoyan Cai
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Tingting Dai
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Lingxi Wang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Chunying Song
- Human Sperm Bank, The Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences, Taiyuan, China
| | - Yushan Li
- Human Sperm Bank, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Fuping Li
- Human Sperm Bank, The Key Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children of Ministry of Education, West China Second University Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Tianqing Meng
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- Human Sperm Bank, Reproductive Medicine Center, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Huiqiang Sheng
- Human Sperm Bank, The Zhejiang Provincial Maternal and Child and Reproductive Health Care Center, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xiaolin Yu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Qinghui Zeng
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Pi Guo
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China
| | - Xinzong Zhang
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Male Reproduction and Genetics, Guangzhou, China
- Department of Andrology, Guangdong Provincial Reproductive Science Institute (Guangdong Provincial Fertility Hospital), China
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Powis CM, Byrne D, Zobel Z, Gassert KN, Lute AC, Schwalm CR. Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadg9297. [PMID: 37682995 PMCID: PMC10491292 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg9297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023]
Abstract
As our planet warms, a critical research question is when and where temperatures will exceed the limits of what the human body can tolerate. Past modeling efforts have investigated the 35°C wet-bulb threshold, proposed as a theoretical upper limit to survivability taking into account physiological and behavioral adaptation. Here, we conduct an extreme value theory analysis of weather station observations and climate model projections to investigate the emergence of an empirically supported heat compensability limit. We show that the hottest parts of the world already experience these heat extremes on a limited basis and that under moderate continued warming parts of every continent, except Antarctica, will see a rapid increase in their extent and frequency. To conclude, we discuss the consequences of the emergence of this noncompensable heat and the need for incorporating different critical thermal limits into heat adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carter M. Powis
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David Byrne
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Woods Hole, Falmouth, MA, USA
| | - Zachary Zobel
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Woods Hole, Falmouth, MA, USA
| | | | - A. C. Lute
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Woods Hole, Falmouth, MA, USA
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Navas-Martín MÁ, López-Bueno JA, Ascaso-Sánchez MS, Follos F, Vellón JM, Mirón IJ, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J, Linares C. Territory Differences in Adaptation to Heat among Persons Aged 65 Years and Over in Spain (1983-2018). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4168. [PMID: 36901177 PMCID: PMC10002076 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20054168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is currently regarded as the greatest global threat to human health, and its health-related consequences take different forms according to age, sex, socioeconomic level, and type of territory. The aim of this study is to ascertain the differences in vulnerability and the heat-adaptation process through the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) among the Spanish population aged ≥65 years by territorial classification. A retrospective, longitudinal, ecological time-series study, using provincial data on daily mortality and maximum daily temperature across the period 1983-2018, was performed, differentiating between urban and nonurban populations. The MMTs in the study period were higher for the ≥65-year age group in urban provinces, with a mean value of 29.6 °C (95%CI 29.2-30.0) versus 28.1 °C (95%CI 27.7-28.5) in nonurban provinces. This difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In terms of adaptation levels, higher average values were obtained for nonurban areas, with values of 0.12 (95%CI -0.13-0.37), than for urban areas, with values of 0.09 (95%CI -0.27-0.45), though this difference was not statistically significant (p < 0.05). These findings may contribute to better planning by making it possible to implement more specific public health prevention plans. Lastly, they highlight the need to conduct studies on heat-adaptation processes, taking into account various differential factors, such as age and territory.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Doctorate Program in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education, 28015 Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Fernando Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol, 15401 A Coruña, Spain
| | | | - Isidro Juan Mirón
- Regional Health Authority of Castile La Mancha, 45500 Torrijos, Spain
| | | | | | - Julio Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Cristina Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
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