A comprehensive evaluation of COVID-19 policies and outcomes in 50 countries and territories

Why nanny statism matters: evidence from the first wave of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

A nanny state imposes restrictions on people's liberty and freedom of action in order to advance their interest and welfare. The extent to which this is desirable, or even ethically acceptable, is debated in the literature. This paper formulates and tests the following hypothesis: the more of a nanny a state has been in the past, the more likely it is that the incumbent government will respond to a new, unknown threat with interventions of a paternalist nature, irrespective of other factors that might contribute to shaping government's response. This hypothesis is then taken to the data using the first wave of COVID-19 as an empirical test.

METHODS

Data are collected from secondary sources for a sample of 99 countries. Nanny statism is measured by the number of paternalist laws and regulations adopted by a country in the past. The response to COVID is proxied by the time of adoption of control and containment measures and their stringency. The public health outcome is measured by the COVID-19 death toll at the end of June 2020. These variables, plus several controls, are then used to estimate a set of linear and probit regressions and a proportional hazard model of the timing of adoption of control and containment measures.

RESULTS

An increase in nanny statism by 0.1 (on a scale from 0 to 10) on average increases the probability of adoption of control and containment measures by 0.077 (i.e. 7.7 percentage points). The central tenement of the hypothesis is therefore consistent with the empirical evidence. The linear and probit regressions also show that there is no evidence of a significant effect of nanny statism on the stringency of the measures adopted. Irrespective of stringency, however, early adoption of control and containment measures is found to reduce the death toll of COVID-19 in the first half of 2020: an increase in nanny statism by 0.1 reduces the COVID death toll by approximately 7%.

CONCLUSIONS

A tradition of nanny statism potentially leads to a more timely and effective public policy response to a new, unknown crisis. Further tests of the hypothesis should look at the relationship between nanny statism and public health outcomes from natural disasters.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis

Background

The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, social distancing and school closures, against the COVID-19 epidemic is debated, particularly for the possible negative effects on vulnerable populations, including children and adolescents. This study therefore aimed to quantify the impact of NPIs on the trend of pediatric hospitalizations during 2 years of pandemic compared to the previous 3 years, also considering two pandemic phases according to the type of adopted NPIs.

Methods

This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study conducted in 12 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding the beginning of NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (up to September 2020) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase with less stringent restrictions. School closure was chosen as delimitation as it particularly concerns young people. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was applied to calculate Hospitalization Rate Ratios (HRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest variation. ITS allows the estimation of changes attributable to an intervention, both in terms of immediate (level change) and sustained (slope change) effects, while accounting for pre-intervention secular trends.

Results

Overall, in the 60 months of the study there were 84,368 cases. Compared to the pre-pandemic years, statistically significant 35 and 19% decreases in hospitalizations were observed during school closure and in the following mitigation measures phase, respectively. The greatest reduction was recorded for "Respiratory Diseases," whereas the "Mental Disorders" category exhibited a significant increase during mitigation measures. ITS analysis confirms a high reduction of level change during school closure for Respiratory Diseases (HRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.08-0.47) and a similar but smaller significant reduction when mitigation measures were enacted. Level change for Mental Disorders significantly decreased during school closure (HRR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30-0.82) but increased during mitigation measures by 28% (HRR 1.28, 95%CI 0.98-1.69).

Conclusion

Our findings provide information on the impact of COVID-19 NPIs which may inform public health policies in future health crises, plan effective control and preventative interventions and target resources where needed.

Suppression of the alpha, delta, and omicron variants of SARS-Cov-2 in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Taiwan was a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outlier, with an extraordinarily long transmission-free record: 253 days without locally transmitted infections while the rest of the world battled wave after wave of infection. The appearance of the alpha variant in May 2021, closely followed by the delta variant, disrupted this transmission-free streak. However, despite low vaccination coverage (<1%), outbreaks were well-controlled.

METHODS

This study analyzed the time to border closure and conducted one-sample t test to compare between Taiwan and Non-Taiwan countries prior to vaccine introduction. The study also collected case data to observe the dynamics of omicron transmission. Time-varying reproduction number,Rt, was calculated and was used to reflect infection impact at specified time points and model trends of future incidence.

RESULTS

The study analyzed and compare the time to border closure in Taiwan and non-Taiwan countries. The mean times to any border closure from the first domestic case within each country were -21 and 5.98 days, respectively (P < .0001). The Taiwanese government invested in quick and effective contact tracing with a precise quarantine strategy in lieu of a strict lockdown. Residents followed recommendations based on self-discipline and unity. The self-discipline in action is evidenced in Google mobility reports. The central and local governments worked together to enact non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including universal masking, social distancing, limited unnecessary gatherings, systematic contact tracing, and enhanced quarantine measures. The people cooperated actively with pandemic-prevention regulations, including vaccination and preventive NPIs.

CONCLUSIONS

This article describes four key factors underlying Taiwan's success in controlling COVID-19 transmission: quick responses; effective control measures with new technologies and rolling knowledge updates; unity and cooperation among Taiwanese government agencies, private companies and organizations, and individual citizens; and Taiwanese self-discipline.

Unraveling implicit human behavioral effects on dynamic characteristics of Covid-19 daily infection rates in Taiwan

We investigate the dynamic characteristics of Covid-19 daily infection rates in Taiwan during its initial surge period, focusing on 79 districts within the seven largest cities. By employing computational techniques, we extract 18 features from each district-specific curve, transforming unstructured data into structured data. Our analysis reveals distinct patterns of asymmetric growth and decline among the curves. Utilizing theoretical information measurements such as conditional entropy and mutual information, we identify major factors of order-1 and order-2 that influence the peak value and curvature at the peak of the curves, crucial features characterizing the infection rates. Additionally, we examine the impact of geographic and socioeconomic factors on the curves by encoding each of the 79 districts with two binary characteristics: North-vs-South and Urban-vs-Suburban. Furthermore, leveraging this data-driven understanding at the district level, we explore the fine-scale behavioral effects on disease spread by examining the similarity among 96 age-group-specific curves within urban districts of Taipei and suburban districts of New Taipei City, which collectively represent a substantial portion of the nation's population. Our findings highlight the implicit influence of human behaviors related to living, traveling, and working on the dynamics of Covid-19 transmission in Taiwan.

Environment contamination and intra-hospital spread of COVID-19 in a tertiary care Hospital in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

The role of environmental contamination in COVID-19 transmission within hospitals is still of interest due to the significant impact of outbreaks globally. However, there is a scarcity of data regarding the utilization of environmental sampling for informing infection control measures during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed incident event investigations conducted at a single center from May 1, 2021, to August 31, 2021. Investigations were initiated following the identification of a COVID-19 confirmed case (referred to as the index case) who had stayed in a hospital area outside the dedicated COVID-19 ward/bed and without specific COVID-19 precautions. Measures to prevent intra-hospital spread included contact tracing, adjusted testing policies, isolation of confirmed cases, quarantine of close contacts, environmental disinfection, and PCR testing of environmental samples.

RESULTS

Among the 18 incident events investigated, the index case was a healthcare personnel in 8 events, a patient in 8 events, and a caregiver in 2 events. The median number of confirmed COVID-19 cases within 14 days was 13 (IQR, 7-31) for events with SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected on environmental surfaces, compared to only one (IQR, 1-1.5) for events without surface contamination (P = 0.04). Environmental contamination was independently associated with a higher number of COVID-19 cases (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study highlights environmental contamination as an indicator of the severity of incident events and provides a framework for incident event management, including a protocol for environmental sampling. Implementing these measures can help prevent the spread of COVID-19 within healthcare facilities.

Preventing and controlling intra-hospital spread of COVID-19 in Taiwan - Looking back and moving forward

COVID-19 has exposed major weaknesses in the healthcare settings. The surge in COVID-19 cases increases the demands of health care, endangers vulnerable patients, and threats occupational safety. In contrast to a hospital outbreak of SARS leading to a whole hospital quarantined, at least 54 hospital outbreaks following a COVID-19 surge in the community were controlled by strengthened infection prevention and control measures for preventing transmission from community to hospitals as well as within hospitals. Access control measures include establishing triage, epidemic clinics, and outdoor quarantine stations. Visitor access restriction is applied to inpatients to limit the number of visitors. Health monitoring and surveillance is applied to healthcare personnel, including self-reporting travel declaration, temperature, predefined symptoms, and test results. Isolation of the confirmed cases during the contagious period and quarantine of the close contacts during the incubation period are critical for containment. The target populations and frequency of SARS-CoV-2 PCR and rapid antigen testing depend on the level of transmission. Case investigation and contact tracing should be comprehensive to identify the close contacts to prevent further transmission. These facility-based infection prevention and control strategies help reduce hospital transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to a minimum in Taiwan.

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models

BACKGROUND

Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but only few models of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have incorporated protective behaviors or vaccination, known to be effective for pandemic control.

METHODS

To improve the accuracy of prediction, we applied newly developed ARIMA models with predictors (mask wearing, avoiding going out, and vaccination) to forecast weekly COVID-19 case growth rates in Canada, France, Italy, and Israel between January 2021 and March 2022. The open-source data was sourced from the YouGov survey and Our World in Data. Prediction performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc).

RESULTS

A model with mask wearing and vaccination variables performed best for the pandemic period in which the Alpha and Delta viral variants were predominant (before November 2021). A model using only past case growth rates as autoregressive predictors performed best for the Omicron period (after December 2021). The models suggested that protective behaviors and vaccination are associated with the reduction of COVID-19 case growth rates, with booster vaccine coverage playing a particularly vital role during the Omicron period. For example, each unit increase in mask wearing and avoiding going out significantly reduced the case growth rate during the Alpha/Delta period in Canada (-0.81 and -0.54, respectively; both p < 0.05). In the Omicron period, each unit increase in the number of booster doses resulted in a significant reduction of the case growth rate in Canada (-0.03), Israel (-0.12), Italy (-0.02), and France (-0.03); all p < 0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

The key findings of this study are incorporating behavior and vaccination as predictors led to accurate predictions and highlighted their significant role in controlling the pandemic. These models are easily interpretable and can be embedded in a "real-time" schedule with weekly data updates. They can support timely decision making about policies to control dynamically changing epidemics.

COVID-19 Cases and Deaths among Healthcare Personnel with the Progression of the Pandemic in Korea from March 2020 to February 2022

Healthcare personnel (HCP) are vulnerable to COVID-19 infection due to their higher risk of contact with infected persons. The numbers of cases and deaths among HCP in Korea were divided into four periods associated with different major variants of SARS-CoV-2: GH clade, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. To evaluate the implication of HCP infection in Korea, we overviewed the pandemic status in Korea and in other countries: the cases, deaths, excess mortality, and vaccination rates in Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In about two years, there were 10,670 HCP cases among all COVID-19 cases (1.15% of 925,975 cases). HCP cases had a lower death rate (%) compared to that for all cases (0.14 versus 0.75). Nurses were the most infected (55.3%), followed by HCP of other categories (28.8%) and doctors (15.9%), while deaths were mostly reported among doctors (9 out of 15, 60%). Cases among HCP gradually increased, but the death rate decreased as the pandemic progressed. Compared to five of the other countries examined, Korea had a higher incidence of cases but a lower mortality, lower excess mortality, and a higher vaccination rate.

Emergence and Persistent Dominance of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.3.7 Variant, Taiwan

Since April 2022, waves of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant cases have surfaced in Taiwan and spread throughout the island. Using high-throughput sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, we analyzed 2,405 PCR-positive swab samples from 2,339 persons and identified the Omicron BA.2.3.7 variant as a major lineage within recent community outbreaks in Taiwan.

Continued demographic shifts in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 from migrant workers to a vulnerable and more elderly local population at risk of severe disease

OBJECTIVES

In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore, the vast majority of infected persons were migrant workers living in dormitories who had few medical comorbidities. In 2021, with the Delta and Omicron waves, this shifted to the more vulnerable, elderly population within the local community. We examined evolving trends among the hospitalised cases of COVID-19.

METHODS

All patients with polymerase chain reaction-positive SARS-CoV-2 admitted from February 2020 to October 2021 were included and subsequently stratified by their year of admission (2020 or 2021). We compared the baseline clinical characteristics, clinical course, and outcomes.

RESULTS

A majority of cases were seen in 2020 (n = 1359), compared with 2021 (n = 422), due to the large outbreaks in migrant worker dormitories. Nevertheless, the greater proportion of locally transmitted cases outside of dormitories in 2021 (78.7% vs 12.3%) meant a significantly older population with more medical comorbidities had COVID-19. This led to an observably higher proportion of patients with severe disease presenting with raised inflammatory markers, need for therapeutics, supplemental oxygenation, and higher mortality.

CONCLUSION

Changing demographics and the characteristics of the exposed populations are associated with distinct differences in clinical presentation and outcomes. Older age remained consistently associated with adverse outcomes.

Qualitative Analysis of a Roundtable Exercise "Reflecting on the COVID-19 Experience of Public Health Professionals"

CONTEXT

Public health professionals around the country faced significant challenges responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Reflecting on their experience is an essential element in making sense of their experience and learning from it.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this qualitative study was to (1) describe the lived experiences of public health professionals working during the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) discuss the effectiveness of a guided reflection exercise to help public health professionals process these experiences, and (3) provide lessons learned and best practices to inform preparation for a future infectious disease pandemic.

DESIGN

Qualitative focus group study design.

SETTING

This activity was conducted at a Midwestern state public health professional meeting.

PARTICIPANTS

Forty-eight public health professionals self-selected to participate in this study.

RESULTS

Five themes were elicited in this analysis, including Communication, Leadership and Collaboration, Data Management, Community Relationships, and Resources and Planning. In addition, public health professionals reported numerous lessons learned, including the need for more leadership from the state government, the conflicted response of their communities, and the benefits of community solidarity where it was present.

CONCLUSIONS

This article provides a detailed account of public health workers' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also provides lessons learned that will help public health workers lead more effectively in the future. Guided reflection on a traumatic professional experience can assist participating individuals in making sense of their experience and learning important lessons from it.

Did the general practice residents well adapt to real public health prevention --a study from the COVID-19 prevention training in China

OBJECT

GP residents's has the obligation to take task with the public health prevetion. GP residents receive the public health training during their college study period and the residents training. The sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, highlight the importance and competence of the community prevention as the front line of epidemic prevention and control, pushing the general practitioner (GP) residents into the front team of epidemic prevention and control. Residents' participation in epidemic prevention and control is not only a field workload participation in public health disease prevention and control, but also a rare and value-oriented training experience. This study aims to explores the research on the training content, ability improvement and cognitive load of the resident, and to demonstrate past and future training effects of epidemic prevention and control.

METHODS

Object cognitive load scale (NASA-TLX scale) and self-developed questionnaires were adopted to conduct a questionnaire survey on resident doctors who were in GP training program from West China Hospital of Sichuan University, and finally 190 questionnaires were collected. SPSS 23.0 statistical software for statistical analysis of data.

RESULT

Most indicators of cognitive load NASA scale are at a "moderate" level by the GP residents, generally indicating that the intensity of on-site epidemic prevention and control (training) can be tolerated. The chi-square test is used to study the status of "How responsible you are for epidemic prevention and control in a community in the future", the residents grade shows no significant difference while " how many months after the outbreak when you participated in the epidemic prevention" shows significant difference, the result show that GP residents already have konwledge and skills for the public health prevetion, they need more attitude and mental preparation. Continuing education will have a significant positive relationship with the GP residents's confidence of the prevetion ofpublic health prevetion.

CONCLUSION

Former medical school education and training at the regulatory training stage have a good effect for residents to master the ability of epidemic prevention and control, and to prepare for the needs of epidemic prevention and control physically and mentally. After this stage, the epidemic prevention and control training under the real situation will make a great contribution to the self-assessment and performance improvement of the final general practitioners.

Measuring the Impact of Future Outbreaks? A Secondary Analysis of Routinely Available Data in Spain

Background: As of 7 January 2022, it is estimated that 5.5 million people worldwide have died from COVID-19. Although the full impact of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) on healthcare systems worldwide is still unknown, we must consider the socio-economic impact. For instance, it has resulted in an 11% decrease in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the European Union. We aim to provide valuable information for policymakers by analysing widely available epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators using Spanish data. Methods: Secondary analysis of routinely available data from various official data sources covering the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 March 2021. To measure the impact of COVID-19 in the population, a set of epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators were used. The interrelationships between these socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators were analysed using Pearson's correlation. Their behaviour was grouped according to their greater capacity to measure the impact of the pandemic and was compared to identify those that are more appropriate to monitor future health crises (primary outcome) using multivariate analysis of canonical correlation for estimating the correlation between indicators using different units of analysis. Results: Data from different time points were analysed. The excess of mortality was negatively correlated with the number of new companies created during the pandemic. The increase in COVID-19 cases was associated with the rise of unemployed workers. Neither GDP nor per capita debt was related to any epidemiological indicators considered in the annual analysis. The canonical models of socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators of each of the time periods analysed were statistically significant (0.80-0.91 p < 0.05). Conclusions: In conclusion, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, excess mortality, incidence, lethality, and unemployment constituted the best group of indicators to measure the impact of the pandemic. These indicators, widely available, could provide valuable information to policymakers and higher management in future outbreaks.

A Comparison of Germany and the United Kingdom Indicates That More SARS-CoV-2 Circulation and Less Restrictions in the Warm Season Might Reduce Overall COVID-19 Burden

(1) Background: Between March 2020 and January 2022 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused five infection waves in Europe. The first and the second wave was caused by wildtype SARS-CoV-2, while the following waves were caused by the variants of concern Alpha, Delta, and Omicron respectively. (2) Methods: In the present analysis, the first four waves were compared in Germany and the UK, in order to examine the COVID-19 epidemiology and its modulation by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). (3) Results: The number of COVID-19 patients on intensive care units and the case fatality rate were used to estimate disease burden, the excess mortality to assess the net effect of NPI and other measures on the population. The UK was more severely affected by the first and the third wave while Germany was more affected by the second wave. The UK had a higher excess mortality during the first wave, afterwards the excess mortality in both countries was nearly identical. While most NPI were lifted in the UK in July 2021, the measures were kept and even aggravated in Germany. Nevertheless, in autumn 2021 Germany was much more affected, nearly resulting in a balanced sum of infections and deaths compared to the UK. Within the whole observation period, in Germany the number of COVID-19 patients on ICUs was up to four times higher than in the UK. Our results show that NPI have a limited effect on COVID-19 burden, seasonality plays a crucial role, and a higher virus circulation in a pre-wave situation could be beneficial. (4) Conclusions: Although Germany put much more effort and resources to fight the pandemic, the net balance of both countries was nearly identical, questioning the benefit of excessive ICU treatments and of the implementation of NPI, especially during the warm season.