The implications of globalization on COVID-19 vaccination in Europe

Does education influence COVID-19 vaccination? A global view

After the recent hard attempts felt on a global scale, notably in the health sector, the steady efforts of scientists have been materialized in maybe one of the most expected findings of the last decades, i.e. the launching of the COVID-19 vaccines. Although it is not our goal to plead for vaccination, as the decision in this regard is a matter of individual choice, we believe it is necessary and enlightening to analyze how one's educational status interferes with COVID-19 vaccination. There are discrepancies between world states vis-à-vis their well-being and their feedback to crises, and from the collection of features that can segregate the states in handling vaccination, in this paper, the spotlight is on education. We are referring to this topic because, generally, researches converge rather on the linkage between economic issues and COVID-19 vaccination, while education levels are less tackled in relation to this. To notice the weight of each type of education (primary, secondary, tertiary) in this process, we employ an assortment of statistical methods, for three clusters: 45 low-income countries (LICs), 72 middle-income countries (MICs) and 53 high-income countries (HICs). The estimates suggest that education counts in the COVID-19 vaccination, the tertiary one having the greatest meaning in accepting it. It is also illustrated that the imprint of education on vaccination fluctuates across the country groups scrutinized, with HICs recording the upper rates. The heterogeneity of COVID-19 vaccination-related behaviors should determine health authorities to treat this subject differently. To expand the COVID-19 vaccines uptake, they should be in an ongoing dialogue with all population categories and, remarkably, with those belonging to vulnerable communities, originated mostly in LICs. Education is imperative for vaccination, and it would ought to be on the schedule of any state, for being assimilated into health strategies and policies.

Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19

As COVID-19 vaccines became widely available worldwide, many countries implemented vaccination certification, also known as a "green pass", to promote and expedite vaccination on containing virus spread from the latter half of 2021. This policy allowed those vaccinated to have more freedom in public activities compared to more constraints on the unvaccinated in addition to existing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Accordingly, the vaccination certification also induced heterogeneous behaviors of unvaccinated and vaccinated groups. This makes it essential yet challenging to model the behavioral impact of vaccination certification on the two groups and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 within and between the groups. Very limited quantitative work is available for addressing these purposes. Here we propose an extended epidemiological model SEIQRD[Formula: see text] to effectively distinguish the behavioral impact of vaccination certification on unvaccinated and vaccinated groups through incorporating two contrastive transmission chains. SEIQRD[Formula: see text] also quantifies the impact of the green pass policy. With the resurgence of COVID-19 in Greece, Austria, and Israel in 2021, our simulation results indicate that their implementation of vaccination certification brought about more than a 14-fold decrease in the total number of infections and deaths as compared to a scenario with no such a policy. Additionally, a green pass policy may offer a reasonable practical solution to strike the balance between public health and individual's freedom during the pandemic.

Influence of Seasonality and Public-Health Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Europe

BACKGROUND

Most government efforts to control the COVID-19 pandemic revolved around non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. However, many respiratory diseases show distinctive seasonal trends. In this manuscript, we examined the contribution of these three factors to the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Pearson correlation coefficients and time-lagged analysis were used to examine the relationship between NPIs, vaccinations and seasonality (using the average incidence of endemic human beta-coronaviruses in Sweden over a 10-year period as a proxy) and the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic as tracked by deaths; cases; hospitalisations; intensive care unit occupancy and testing positivity rates in six Northern European countries (population 99.12 million) using a population-based, observational, ecological study method.

FINDINGS

The waves of the pandemic correlated well with the seasonality of human beta-coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1). In contrast, we could not find clear or consistent evidence that the stringency of NPIs or vaccination reduced the progression of the pandemic. However, these results are correlations and not causations.

IMPLICATIONS

We hypothesise that the apparent influence of NPIs and vaccines might instead be an effect of coronavirus seasonality. We suggest that policymakers consider these results when assessing policy options for future pandemics.

LIMITATIONS

The study is limited to six temperate Northern European countries with spatial and temporal variations in metrics used to track the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic. Caution should be exercised when extrapolating these findings.

COVID-19 vaccination and governance in the case of low, middle and high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Global crises, regardless of the place where they started to spread or of the factors that triggered them, require a comprehensive approach, primarily based on good communication, cooperation and mutual support. No individual and no institution should remain indifferent to crises but, on the contrary, be fully aware that any involvement in curbing them matters. Although humanity can be affected by various types of crises, in this paper we refer to the one related to COVID-19 pandemic. There are certain reasons that come to justify our choice: first of all, being a shock with a strong impact on people, its analysis should be performed from several angles; this may bring to light an image with its disparate propagation and measures to counteract it both in developed countries, and especially in those with a shortage of resources. Secondly, in the context of the emergence of vaccines against COVID-19, it is helpful to have an overview of COVID-19 through the lens of the relationship between the vaccination process and the elements that characterize governance, with a differentiated dashboard by country categories worldwide: low, middle and high-income countries. Our study is far from capturing the complexity arising from such social problem, but rather aims to outline the defining role of governance when it comes to providing firm reactions to the COVID-19 crisis.

METHODS

Given that our sample consists of a large number of countries, namely 170, first, examined all together, and then, split into three groups (high, middle and low-income), it is challenging to address governance in association with COVID-19 vaccination, in order to see how much they interact and how each of the six aggregate governance indicators of the World Bank (Worldwide Governance Indicators) is reflected in this process. Even if they do not oscillate strongly over relatively short periods of time, reporting on health issues requires a sequential inventory, considering closer time intervals, so as to be able to act promptly. Thus, to better distinguish how the COVID-19 vaccination process evolved in low, middle and high-income countries, but also how it was imprinted by governance, we present the situation quarterly (March, June, September and December), in 2021, the year when the immunization campaigns were the most intense at the global level. Regarding the applied methods, we mention both OLS regressions with robust estimators and a panel model, used to investigate the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination, some of them describing the good governance, as well as other dimensions.

RESULTS

The findings point out that the influence of governance on COVID-19 vaccination differs depending on whether a country belongs to high, middle or low-income typology: the strongest determinism of governance on vaccination is encountered in high-income countries, and the weakest in low-income ones; in some cases, governance does not matter significantly. However, exploring the three groups of states included in the research, it is observed that the most relevant factors in this relationship are government effectiveness, regulatory quality and control of corruption.

CONCLUSIONS

Besides the order of importance of governance indicators on COVID-19 vaccination, our study indicates that, overall, governance positively shapes the vaccination rate at the level of the chosen sample. In normative terms, these findings can be translated particularly by the fact that they can serve as information to raise awareness on the relevance of the existence of an institutional framework that allows the formulation of strategies according to the patterns of each country, especially since the actionable tools depend on the available resources. As a general conclusion, public policies should be designed in such a way as to strengthen trust in vaccination regulations and in governments, to reduce the multifaceted negative effects of this health crisis and to hope for its total end.