The psychological and political correlates of conspiracy theory beliefs

Leveraging artificial intelligence to identify the psychological factors associated with conspiracy theory beliefs online

Given the profound societal impact of conspiracy theories, probing the psychological factors associated with their spread is paramount. Most research lacks large-scale behavioral outcomes, leaving factors related to actual online support for conspiracy theories uncertain. We bridge this gap by combining the psychological self-reports of 2506 Twitter (currently X) users with machine-learning classification of whether the textual data from their 7.7 million social media engagements throughout the pandemic supported six common COVID-19 conspiracy theories. We assess demographic factors, political alignment, factors derived from theory of reasoned action, and individual psychological differences. Here, we show that being older, self-identifying as very left or right on the political spectrum, and believing in false information constitute the most consistent risk factors; denialist tendencies, confidence in one's ability to spot misinformation, and political conservativism are positively associated with support for one conspiracy theory. Combining artificial intelligence analyses of big behavioral data with self-report surveys can effectively identify and validate risk factors for phenomena evident in large-scale online behaviors.

The political, psychological, and social correlates of cryptocurrency ownership

Cryptocurrency is a digital asset secured by cryptography that has become a popular medium of exchange and investment known for its anonymous transactions, unregulated markets, and volatile prices. Given the popular subculture of traders it has created, and its implications for financial markets and monetary policy, scholars have recently begun to examine the political, psychological, and social characteristics of cryptocurrency investors. A review of the existing literature suggests that cryptocurrency owners may possess higher-than-average levels of nonnormative psychological traits and exhibit a range of non-mainstream political identities. However, this extant literature typically employs small nonrepresentative samples of respondents and examines only a small number of independent variables in each given study. This presents the opportunity for both further testing of previous findings as well as broader exploratory analyses including more expansive descriptive investigations of cryptocurrency owners. To that end, we polled 2,001 American adults in 2022 to examine the associations between cryptocurrency ownership and individual level political, psychological, and social characteristics. Analyses revealed that 30% of our sample have owned some form of cryptocurrency and that these individuals exhibit a diversity of political allegiances and identities. We also found that crypto ownership was associated with belief in conspiracy theories, "dark" personality characteristics (e.g., the "Dark Tetrad" of narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism), and more frequent use of alternative and fringe social media platforms. When examining a more comprehensive multivariate model, the variables that most strongly predict cryptocurrency ownership are being male, relying on alternative/fringe social media as one's primary news source, argumentativeness, and an aversion to authoritarianism. These findings highlight numerous avenues for future research into the people who buy and trade cryptocurrencies and speak to broader global trends in anti-establishment attitudes and nonnormative behaviors.

The sociodemographic correlates of conspiracism

Despite hundreds of studies examining belief in conspiracy theories, it is still unclear who-demographically-is most likely to believe such theories. To remedy this knowledge gap, we examine survey data containing various operationalizations of conspiracism across diverse sociopolitical contexts. Study 1 employs a 2021 U.S. survey (n = 2021) to examine associations between sociodemographic characteristics and beliefs in 39 conspiracy theories. Study 2 similarly employs a survey of 20 countries (n = 26,416) and 11 conspiracy theory beliefs. Study 3 reports results from a 2020 U.S. survey (n = 2015) measuring perceptions about which groups are engaging in conspiracies. Study 4 interrogates data from nine U.S. surveys (2012-2022; n = 14,334) to examine the relationships between sociodemographic characteristics and generalized conspiracy thinking. Study 5 synchronizes studies 1-4 to provide an intersectional analysis of conspiracy theory belief. Across studies, we observe remarkably consistent patterns: education, income, age (older), and White identification are negatively related to conspiracism, while Black identification is positively related. We conclude by discussing why conspiracy theories may appeal most to historically marginalized groups and how our findings can inform efforts to mitigate the negative effects of conspiracy theories.

People do change their beliefs about conspiracy theories-but not often

Recent research has produced a significant body of knowledge about the antecedents and consequences of individual differences in belief in conspiracy theories. What is less clear, however, is the extent to which individuals' beliefs in conspiracy theories vary over time (i.e., within-person variation). In this descriptive and exploratory study, we therefore aimed to describe within-person variability in belief in conspiracy theories. We collected data from 498 Australians and New Zealanders using an online longitudinal survey, with data collected at monthly intervals over 6 months (March to September 2021). Our measure of conspiracy theories included items describing ten conspiracy theories with responses on a 5-point Likert scale. While there was substantial between-person variance, there was much less within-person variance (intraclass r = 0.91). This suggests that beliefs in conspiracy theories were highly stable in our sample. This stability implies that longitudinal studies testing hypotheses about the causes and consequences of belief in conspiracy theories may require large samples of participants and time points to achieve adequate power. It also implies that explanations of belief in conspiracy theories need to accommodate the observation that beliefs in such theories vary much more between people than within people.

Correlation between coronavirus conspiracism and antisemitism: a cross-sectional study in the United Kingdom

This article presents the findings of a survey of UK-resident adults ([Formula: see text] = 1790) carried out in December 2021 and designed to test for a relationship between antisemitism and coronavirus conspiracism. Antisemitism was measured using the Generalised Antisemitism (GeAs) scale, and coronavirus conspiracism was measured using a version of the Flexible Inventory of Conspiracy Suspicions (FICS). Hypotheses and methodology were pre-registered, and all data and code are open. There was found to be a positive correlation between coronavirus conspiracy suspicions and Generalised Antisemitism, robust to demographic controls. This correlation appears to be entirely accounted for by older forms of antisemitism: antisemitism as expressed in relation to Israel and its supporters was found to be associated with coronavirus conspiracism only because both of these variables were associated with antisemitism as expressed in relation to Jews identified as Jews. Statistical analysis suggests that these findings may be generalised from the sample to the UK adult population with some confidence, although no data were collected in other national contexts, such that generalisation to other national contexts must remain speculative.

Vaccine Conspiracy Beliefs Scale: Validation and Measurement Invariance in a Youth Sample

The Vaccine Conspiracy Beliefs Scale (VCBS) is a widely used measure of conspiracy beliefs about vaccines, but evidence of its validity and measurement invariance, especially in youth samples, is still largely missing. The present study examined VCBS scores' factor structure, measurement invariance, convergent and discriminant validity, and incremental predictive validity. A sample of 803 Serbian youths (age range 15-24; 59.2% females) was recruited for the study. A modified single-factor model of the VCBS was supported, and showed evidence of full scalar invariance across gender, age, vaccination status, and personal history of COVID-19. Evidence of the VCBS scores' convergent and discriminant validity was obtained by examining associations with general conspiracy beliefs, vaccination attitudes, vaccination knowledge, intentions to get vaccinated against COVID-19, paranoia worries, fear of injections and blood draws, importance of God, self-rated health, and self-rated family's financial situation. The VCBS scores predicted a unique variance in the intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19, over and above vaccination attitudes and vaccination knowledge. The results suggest that the VCBS is a valid measure of vaccine conspiracy beliefs in youth.

On modeling the correlates of conspiracy thinking

While a robust literature on the psychology of conspiracy theories has identified dozens of characteristics correlated with conspiracy theory beliefs, much less attention has been paid to understanding the generalized predisposition towards interpreting events and circumstances as the product of supposed conspiracies. Using a unique national survey of 2015 U.S. adults from October 2020, we investigate the relationship between this predisposition-conspiracy thinking-and 34 different psychological, political, and social correlates. Using conditional inference tree modeling-a machine learning-based approach designed to facilitate prediction using a flexible modeling methodology-we identify the characteristics that are most useful for orienting individuals along the conspiracy thinking continuum, including (but not limited to): anomie, Manicheanism, support for political violence, a tendency to share false information online, populism, narcissism, and psychopathy. Altogether, psychological characteristics are much more useful in predicting conspiracy thinking than are political and social characteristics, though even our robust set of correlates only partially accounts for variance in conspiracy thinking.

Dark Triad and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: the role of conspiracy beliefs and risk perception

With the spread of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the mass vaccination plan represents the primary weapon to control the infection curve. Unfortunately, vaccine hesitancy also spread out worldwide. This led to exploring the critical factors that prevent vaccination from improving the efficacy of vaccine campaigns. In the present study, the role of the Dark Triad (psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and narcissism) in vaccine hesitancy was investigated, considering the sequential mediating effects of conspiracy beliefs and risk perception. Via a cross-sectional design, the study was conducted with 210 participants surveyed using an online questionnaire to assess the Dark Triad, vaccine hesitancy, conspiracy beliefs, risk perception, and a set of demographic and socio-cultural control variables. Results showed that conspiracy beliefs and risk perception fully mediated the association between the Dark Triad and vaccine hesitancy. This finding suggested that albeit personality accounts for individual differences in human behaviour, vaccine hesitancy is also affected by irrational and false beliefs that, in turn, weaken the risk perception associated with COVID-19. Implications and future research directions were discussed.