Assessing individual risk and the latent transmission of COVID-19 in a population with an interaction-driven temporal model

Static graph approximations of dynamic contact networks for epidemic forecasting

Epidemic modeling is essential in understanding the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and devising effective intervention strategies to control them. Recently, network-based disease models have integrated traditional compartment-based modeling with real-world contact graphs and shown promising results. However, in an ongoing epidemic, future contact network patterns are not observed yet. To address this, we use aggregated static networks to approximate future contacts for disease modeling. The standard method in the literature concatenates all edges from a dynamic graph into one collapsed graph, called the full static graph. However, the full static graph often leads to severe overestimation of key epidemic characteristics. Therefore, we propose two novel static network approximation methods, DegMST and EdgeMST, designed to preserve the sparsity of real world contact network while remaining connected. DegMST and EdgeMST use the frequency of temporal edges and the node degrees respectively to preserve sparsity. Our analysis show that our models more closely resemble the network characteristics of the dynamic graph compared to the full static ones. Moreover, our analysis on seven real-world contact networks suggests EdgeMST yield more accurate estimations of disease dynamics for epidemic forecasting when compared to the standard full static method.

Evaluating the dynamic interplay of social distancing policies regarding airborne pathogens through a temporal interaction-driven model that uses real-world and synthetic data

OBJECTIVE

The recent SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has exhibited diverse patterns of spread across countries and communities, emphasizing the need to consider the underlying population dynamics in modeling its progression and the importance of evaluating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in combating viral transmission within human communities. Such an understanding requires accurate modeling of the interplay between the community dynamics and the disease propagation dynamics within the community.

METHODS

We build on an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks that we have defined. Using the model, we evaluate the effectiveness of temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal social distancing policies. Temporal social distancing involves a pure dilation of the timeline while preserving individual activity potential and thus prolonging the period of interaction; spatial distancing corresponds to social distancing pods; and spatiotemporal distancing pertains to the situation in which fixed subgroups of the overall group meet at alternate times. We evaluate these social distancing policies over real-world interactions' data and over history-preserving synthetic temporal random networks. Furthermore, we evaluate the policies for the disease's with different number of initial patients, corresponding to either the phase in the progression of the infection through a community or the number of patients infected together at the initial infection event. We expand our model to consider the exposure to viral load, which we correlate with the meetings' duration.

RESULTS

Our results demonstrate the superiority of decreasing social interactions (i.e., time dilation) within the community over partial isolation strategies, such as the spatial distancing pods and the spatiotemporal distancing strategy. In addition, we found that slow-spreading pathogens (i.e., pathogens that require a longer exposure to infect) spread roughly at the same rate as fast-spreading ones in highly active communities. This result is surprising since the pathogens may follow different paths. However, we demonstrate that the dilation of the timeline considerably slows the spread of the slower pathogens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that the temporal dynamics of a community have a more significant effect on the spread of the disease than the characteristics of the spreading processes.