Simulated trials: in silico approach adds depth and nuance to the RCT gold-standard

Long-Term Outcomes after Conversion to a Belatacept-Based Immunosuppression in Kidney Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Conversion to a belatacept-based immunosuppression is currently used as a calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) avoidance strategy when the CNI-based standard-of-care immunosuppression is not tolerated after kidney transplantation. However, there is a lack of evidence on the long-term benefit and safety after conversion to belatacept.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled 311 kidney transplant recipients from 2007 to 2020 from two referral centers, converted from CNI to belatacept after transplant according to a prespecified protocol. Patients were matched at the time of conversion to patients maintained with CNIs, using optimal matching. The primary end point was death-censored allograft survival at 7 years. The secondary end points were patient survival, eGFR, and safety outcomes, including serious viral infections, immune-related complications, antibody-mediated rejection, T-cell-mediated rejection, de novo anti-HLA donor-specific antibody, de novo diabetes, cardiovascular events, and oncologic complications.

RESULTS

A total of 243 patients converted to belatacept (belatacept group) were matched to 243 patients maintained on CNIs (CNI control group). All recipient, transplant, functional, histologic, and immunologic parameters were well balanced between the two groups with a standardized mean difference below 0.05. At 7 years post-conversion to belatacept, allograft survival was 78% compared with 63% in the CNI control group ( P < 0.001 for log-rank test). The safety outcomes showed a similar rate of patient death (28% in the belatacept group versus 36% in the CNI control group), active antibody-mediated rejection (6% versus 7%), T-cell-mediated rejection (4% versus 4%), major adverse cardiovascular events, and cancer occurrence (9% versus 11%). A significantly higher rate of de novo proteinuria was observed in the belatacept group as compared with the CNI control group (37% versus 21%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This real-world evidence study shows that conversion to belatacept post-transplant was associated with lower risk of graft failure and acceptable safety outcomes compared with patients maintained on CNIs.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER

Long-term Outcomes after Conversion to Belatacept, NCT04733131 .

A quantitative systems pharmacology workflow toward optimal design and biomarker stratification of atopic dermatitis clinical trials

BACKGROUND

The development of atopic dermatitis (AD) drugs is challenged by many disease phenotypes and trial design options, which are hard to explore experimentally.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to optimize AD trial design using simulations.

METHODS

We constructed a quantitative systems pharmacology model of AD and standard of care (SoC) treatments and generated a phenotypically diverse virtual population whose parameter distribution was derived from known relationships between AD biomarkers and disease severity and calibrated using disease severity evolution under SoC regimens.

RESULTS

We applied this workflow to the immunomodulator OM-85, currently being investigated for its potential use in AD, and calibrated the investigational treatment model with the efficacy profile of an existing trial (thereby enriching it with plausible marker levels and dynamics). We assessed the sensitivity of trial outcomes to trial protocol and found that for this particular example the choice of end point is more important than the choice of dosing regimen and patient selection by model-based responder enrichment could increase the expected effect size. A global sensitivity analysis revealed that only a limited subset of baseline biomarkers is needed to predict the drug response of the full virtual population.

CONCLUSIONS

This AD quantitative systems pharmacology workflow built around knowledge of marker-severity relationships as well as SoC efficacy can be tailored to specific development cases to optimize several trial protocol parameters and biomarker stratification and therefore has promise to become a powerful model-informed AD drug development and personalized medicine tool.

Machine Learning in Clinical Trials: A Primer with Applications to Neurology

We reviewed foundational concepts in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) and discussed ways in which these methodologies may be employed to enhance progress in clinical trials and research, with particular attention to applications in the design, conduct, and interpretation of clinical trials for neurologic diseases. We discussed ways in which ML may help to accelerate the pace of subject recruitment, provide realistic simulation of medical interventions, and enhance remote trial administration via novel digital biomarkers and therapeutics. Lastly, we provide a brief overview of the technical, administrative, and regulatory challenges that must be addressed as ML achieves greater integration into clinical trial workflows.

Repurposing digoxin for geroprotection in patients with frailty and multimorbidity

The geroscience hypothesis proposes biological hallmarks of ageing are modifiable. Increasing evidence supports targeting these hallmarks with therapeutics could prevent and ameliorate age-related conditions - collectively termed "geroprotector drugs". Cellular senescence is a hallmark with considerable potential to be modified with geroprotector drugs. Senotherapeutics are drugs that target cellular senescence for therapeutic benefit. Repurposing commonly used medications with secondary geroprotector properties is a strategy of interest to promote incorporation of geroprotector drugs into clinical practice. One candidate is the cardiac glycoside digoxin. Evidence in mouse models of pulmonary fibrosis, Alzheimer's disease, arthritis and atherosclerosis support digoxin as a senotherapeutic agent. Proposed senolytic mechanisms are upregulation of intrinsic apoptotic pathways and promoting intracellular acidification. Digoxin also appears to have a senomorphic mechanism - altering the T cell pool to ameliorate pro-inflammatory SASP. Despite being widely prescribed to treat atrial fibrillation and heart failure, often in multimorbid older adults, it is not known whether digoxin exerts senotherapeutic effects in humans. Further cellular and animal studies, and ultimately clinical trials with participation of pre-frail older adults, are required to identify whether digoxin has senotherapeutic effect at low dose. This paper reviews the biological mechanisms identified in preliminary cellular and animal studies that support repurposing digoxin as a geroprotector in patients with frailty and multimorbidity.