The Role of Movement Restrictions in Limiting the Economic Impact of Livestock Infections

Geographic expansion of Fasciola hepatica (Linnaeus, 1758) due to changes in land use and cover in Brazil

Fasciolosis is caused by parasites of the genus Fasciola, affecting animals and humans worldwide. In South America, the disease is a result of infection with Fasciola hepatica and although animal infections are more frequently reported, the full extent of the impact on human health due to underdiagnosis remains uncertain. This study analyzed changes in land use and the distribution of F. hepatica in bovine livers in Brazil over 18 years. Data on land use and land cover were collected from the Mapbiomas Project. Data on 414,481,963 slaughtered cattle and condemned livers due to F. hepatica infection were obtained from 4,433 municipalities. Joinpoint analysis was used to study the time series, and the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model was utilized to explore the behavior of F. hepatica infection. In the North, pasture areas significantly increased (P = 0.000001), while forested areas decreased (P = 0.000001). The midwestern and northern regions concentrated the highest number (>290 million) of cattle slaughtered in Brazil. More than 2 million bovine livers were infected by F. hepatica. The infected cattle originated from 194 municipalities in 2002, increasing to 747 in 2020. We consider that the changes in land use and intense cattle transportation may have caused the expansion of F. hepatica. The SIR model analyzed the spread of the disease looking at all six biomes: Caatinga, Amazon Forest, Cerrado, Pantanal, Atlantic Forest, and Pampa. Moreover, this infection not only threatens the health of animals but is also a major concern to biodiversity and vulnerable human communities in South America. Emblematic biomes such as the Amazon basin already face challenges with logging, desertification, and loss of biodiversity. Therefore, strategies for mitigating infection should include controlling illegal pasture areas, establishing health inspections of animal transport, quarantine of newly arrived animals, and livestock zoning, as well as clear One Health policies.

Evaluation of foot and mouth disease control measures: Simulating two endemic areas of Thailand

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease in Thailand, with outbreaks occurring every year. However, the effects of FMD control measures in Thailand have received little research attention. Epidemiological models have been widely used to evaluate FMD outbreak control, but such a model has never been developed for Thailand. We constructed a stochastic between-farm transmission model to evaluate FMD control measures. The epidemiological unit of the model was the farm, which could be in different states: susceptible, latent, undetected infectious, detected infectious and recovered. The between-farm transmission was calculated by the sum of distance-dependent transmission and trade network transmission using parameters derived from FMD outbreaks in 2016-2017. We used this model to simulate the outbreaks with and without the implementation of the following control measures: culling all animals on infected farms, ring vaccination, animal movement restrictions and isolation of infected farms. The control measures were evaluated by estimating the number of secondarily infected farms and the outbreak duration for each scenario. The model was simulated in two study areas located in the Lamphaya Klang subdistrict (high farm density) and the Bo Phloi district (low farm density). The effects of control measures differed between the two study areas. When farm density was high, rigid control measures were required to prevent a major outbreak. Among all options, culling the animals on infected farms resulted in the lowest number of infected farms and the shortest outbreak duration. In contrast, for an area with a low farm density, less stringent control measures were sufficient to control the usually minor outbreaks. The results indicate that different areas require a different approach to control an outbreak of FMD.

The aquaculture disease network model (AquaNet-Mod): A simulation model to evaluate disease spread and controls for the salmonid industry in England and Wales

Infectious disease causes significant mortality in wild and farmed systems, threatening biodiversity, conservation and animal welfare, as well as food security. To mitigate impacts and inform policy, tools such as mathematical models and computer simulations are valuable for predicting the potential spread and impact of disease. This paper describes the development of the Aquaculture Disease Network Model, AquaNet-Mod, and demonstrates its application to evaluating disease epidemics and the efficacy of control, using a Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) case study. AquaNet-Mod is a data-driven, stochastic, state-transition model. Disease spread can occur via four different mechanisms, i) live fish movement, ii) river based, iii) short distance mechanical and iv) distance independent mechanical. Sites transit between three disease states: susceptible, clinically infected and subclinically infected. Disease spread can be interrupted by the application of disease mitigation measures and controls such as contact tracing, culling, fallowing and surveillance. Results from a VHS case study highlight the potential for VHS to spread to 96% of sites over a 10 year time horizon if no disease controls are applied. Epidemiological impact is significantly reduced when live fish movement restrictions are placed on the most connected sites and further still, when disease controls, representative of current disease control policy in England and Wales, are applied. The importance of specific disease control measures, particularly contact tracing and disease detection rate, are also highlighted. The merit of this model for evaluation of disease spread and the efficacy of controls, in the context of policy, along with potential for further application and development of the model, for example to include economic parameters, is discussed.

HoBi-like Pestivirus Is Highly Prevalent in Cattle Herds in the Amazon Region (Northern Brazil)

Pestiviruses are globally distributed and cause substantial economic losses to the cattle industry. In Brazil, the country with the world's largest cattle population, pestivirus infections are well described in some regions, such as in the south, where a high frequency of BVDV-2 is described and contrasts with the high prevalence of HoBi-like pestivirus (HoBiPeV) in the northeast. However, there is a lack of information about pestiviruses in the Amazon Region, in northern Brazil, with a cattle population estimated at 55.7 million head, which has a significant impact on the international livestock market. Therefore, this study investigated the seroprevalence and genetic variability of ruminant pestiviruses in 944 bovine serum samples from four states in northern Brazil: Pará (PA), Amapá (AP), Roraima (RR), and Amazonas (AM). Our results showed that 45.4% of the samples were seropositive (19.8% for BVDV-1, 14.1% for BVDV-2, and 20.9% for HoBiPeV). All samples were tested by RT-qPCR, and three were positive and classified as HoBiPeV in a phylogenetic analysis. These serological and molecular results contrast with those from other regions of the world, suggesting that the northern Brazilian states have a high prevalence of all bovine pestiviruses including HoBiPeV.

Cattle transport network predicts endemic and epidemic foot-and-mouth disease risk on farms in Turkey

The structure of contact networks affects the likelihood of disease spread at the population scale and the risk of infection at any given node. Though this has been well characterized for both theoretical and empirical networks for the spread of epidemics on completely susceptible networks, the long-term impact of network structure on risk of infection with an endemic pathogen, where nodes can be infected more than once, has been less well characterized. Here, we analyze detailed records of the transportation of cattle among farms in Turkey to characterize the global and local attributes of the directed—weighted shipments network between 2007-2012. We then study the correlations between network properties and the likelihood of infection with, or exposure to, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) over the same time period using recorded outbreaks. The shipments network shows a complex combination of features (local and global) that have not been previously reported in other networks of shipments; i.e. small-worldness, scale-freeness, modular structure, among others. We find that nodes that were either infected or at high risk of infection with FMD (within one link from an infected farm) had disproportionately higher degree, were more central (eigenvector centrality and coreness), and were more likely to be net recipients of shipments compared to those that were always more than 2 links away from an infected farm. High in-degree (i.e. many shipments received) was the best univariate predictor of infection. Low in-coreness (i.e. peripheral nodes) was the best univariate predictor of nodes always more than 2 links away from an infected farm. These results are robust across the three different serotypes of FMD observed in Turkey and during periods of low-endemic prevalence and high-prevalence outbreaks.

Contact network epidemiology has been extensively used in the context of infectious diseases, primarily focusing on epidemic diseases. In this paper we use detailed recorded data about cattle exchange between farms in Turkey from 2007 to 2012, to build, analyze and characterize the directed-weighted complex network of shipments of cattle. Additionally, using outbreaks data about recorded cases of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Turkey, we assess the correlation between the “farm’s” position in the network (importance) and the risk of being infected with FMD, which has been endemic in Turkey for a long time. We find some network measures that are more likely to identify high-risk and low-risk farms (in-degree and in-coreness, respectively) when proposing strategies for surveillance or containment of an infectious disease.

A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot-and-mouth disease in endemic regions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a virulent and economically important disease of livestock, still endemic in many areas of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission from persistently infected livestock, also known as carriers, has been proposed as a mechanism to support the persistence of FMD in endemic regions. However, whether carrier livestock can infect susceptible animals is controversial; recovered virus is infectious and there are claims of field transmission, but it remains undemonstrated experimentally. Alternate hypotheses for persistence include the movement of livestock within and between regions, and fomite contamination of the environment. Using a stochastic compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, we investigate the minimum rates of carrier transmission necessary to contribute to the maintenance of FMD in a region, and compare this to the alternate mechanism of persistence through cattle shipments. We find that carrier transmission can theoretically support persistence even at transmission rates much lower than the highest realistic rates previously proposed, and that the parameters with the most effect on the feasibility of carrier-mediated persistence are the average duration of both the carrier phase and natural immunity. However, shipment-mediated persistence remains a viable alternate mechanism for persistence without carrier transmission.

Determining Food Stability to Achieve Food Security

Food security, as part as public health protection, constitutes one of the main objectives for countries aiming to ensure the health of all their citizens. However, food security is compromised worldwide by conflict, political instability, or economic crises, both in developed and developing countries. Conversely, because of the importance of agriculture to the economies of rural areas both in developed and developing countries, this sector can contribute to improving food stability, as well as to furthering food security. Thus, livestock and traditional meat products represent a key factor in ensuring food availability. Overall, biosecurity measures improve animal welfare by decreasing the occurrence of diseases that compromise the stability by causing fluctuations in the availability of meat and animal-derived food products such as milk, eggs, or traditional fermented products. As a consequence, an absence of biosecurity measures affects food security (in its quantitative definition, as described above) as well as the productive, sanitary, and environmental sustainability of the rural environment. Products of animal origin support local trade and the regional economy, while contributing to the availability of foods without great external dependence. The manufacture of foods of animal origin aims to create products that are durable and that maintain food availability for long periods of time, even during seasons with scarce resources. Thus, dry-cured or fermented meat products play an important role in food availability. Food security also refers to food access under healthy economic conditions; therefore, knowledge of the main tools that guarantee the safety of these kinds of food products is essential to achieving food stability and further food security.

Quantifying the Economic Impact of Bovine Tuberculosis on Livestock Farms in South-Western Spain

Simple Summary

Spain is the fifth largest beef cattle producer in the European Union. Animal tuberculosis (TB) is one of the primary limitations of beef cattle farming in the affected countries. The closed herd policy is an effective tool against animal TB, being based on rearing the calves born on the farm for replacement. When the disease appears on a farm, a series of decisions must be taken that will cause substantial losses for three main reasons: First, the final balance generated by the slaughter of infected animals; second, the lower sales revenue derived from the replacement of the slaughtered cattle; and third, the costs incurred from immobilizing the rest of the animals in the herd. Quantifying the impact of TB is determined by the loss of profit, with the consequences being different in relative terms depending on each farm, where those with larger numbers of head of cattle are more resilient to a given number of positive cases. It also contributes to the debate about the optimal balance of cost sharing between the government and farmers.

Abstract

Pasture-based livestock farming generates income in regions with limited resources and is key to biodiversity conservation. However, costs derived from fighting disease can make the difference between profit and loss, eventually compromising farm survival. Animal TB (TB), a chronic infection of cattle and other domestic and wild hosts, is one of the primary limitations of beef cattle farming in some parts of Europe. When an animal tests positive for TB, a loss of profit is caused in the farm, which is due mainly to the animal’s slaughter, replacement of the slaughtered animal and the need to immobilize the rest of the herd. We estimated the economic impact in terms of loss of profit as a result of incremental costs and forgone incomes. We show that farms with a larger number of heads are more capable of dealing with the loss of profit caused by the disease. The quantification of the loss of profit contributes to the ongoing debate on the co-sharing of TB costs between government and farmers. The compensation farmers receive from the public administration to mitigate the economic effects of the disease control interventions is only intended to balance the loss due to slaughter of the infected cattle, being the loss of profit a more global concept.