Prognostic nomogram integrated systemic inflammation score for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma undergoing radical esophagectomy

A narrative review of prognostic indices in the evaluation of gastrointestinal cancers

Background and Objective

Accurate cancer prognostication allows for conscious decision-making. There is a need for precise indices, along with predictive biomarkers, which aid cancer prognostication. We sought to conduct an overview of the current state of prognostic indices and biomarkers in the evaluation of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers, specifically esophageal, colon and rectal.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive review of articles in the PubMed database between September 2001 and February 2022. Only articles written in English were included. We reviewed retrospective analyses and prospective observational studies.

Key Content and Findings

Nomograms are well-described tools that provide estimates of specific cancer-related events, such as overall survival (OS). They are also useful in unroofing specific patient-related variables, which may be associated with cancer survival. Certain prognostic indices have been tested against each other with the goal of discerning superiority. Finally, specific biomarkers have emerged as promising prognostic indicators.

Conclusions

Nomograms play a significant role in the prognostication of GI cancer. The identification of specific biomarkers in cancer prognostication is evolving. As we embark on the era of precision medicine, further investigation of reliable prognostic indices and biomarkers is needed.

Prognostic value of the combined preoperative plasma fibrinogen and systemic inflammatory indexes in ESCC patients

The prognostic indexes based on the combination of preoperative fibrinogen and systemic inflammatory indexes may have greater predictive value in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). It was found that the predictive ability of F-NLR was more valuable than other systemic inflammatory indexes. The preoperative F-NLR score was closely related to the TNM stage, and could be used as an important independent prognostic index for patients with ESCC. Then the nomogram model constructed by F-NLR and TNM stage had higher prognostic ability than that of AJCC stage for ESCC patients. Preoperative F-NLR is a new independent prognostic index and a potential marker for treatment response monitoring in patients with ESCC.

Novel nomograms predicting the survival of patients with nonsurgical thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with IMRT: A retrospective analysis

The purpose of this study was to evaluate several preradiotherapy serum inflammatory indicators, including the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and systemic inflammation score (SIS), and compare which of these indicators had the highest value in predicting survival. Inflammatory markers were combined with traditional prognostic factors, and novel nomogram models were developed to predict overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. A total of 245 patients were enrolled. The Kaplan-Meier method and univariate and multivariate analyses were used to compare survival differences. A total of 239 patients met the eligibility criteria. The survival numbers at 1, 3, and 5 years were 176, 83, and 62, respectively. The OS and PFS rates estimated at 1, 3, and 5 years were 74.6%, 36.8%, and 26.5% and 58.4%, 31.3%, and 20.5%, respectively. The differences in patients' OS and PFS were significant when univariate analysis was applied based on inflammation-based measures. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor length, tumor stage, tumor/node/metastasis stage, chemotherapy, and SIS value were predictive variables for OS and PFS. The nomogram model established based on the multivariate models of the training data set had good predictive ability. The unadjusted C-index was 0.701 (95% CI, 0.662-0.740) and 0.695 (95% CI, 0.656-0.734) for OS and PFS, respectively. This study showed that the SIS-based nomogram could accurately predict the OS and PFS of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Deep-learning-based classification of desmoplastic reaction on H&E predicts poor prognosis in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma

AIMS

Desmoplastic reaction (DR) categorisation has been shown to be a promising prognostic factor in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The usual DR evaluation is performed using semiquantitative scores, which can be subjective. This study aimed to investigate whether a deep-learning classifier could be used for DR classification. We further assessed the prognostic significance of the deep-learning classifier and compared it to that of manual DR reporting and other pathological factors currently used in the clinic.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From 222 surgically resected ESCC cases, 31 randomly selected haematoxylin-eosin-digitised whole slides of patients with immature DR were used to train and develop a deep-learning classifier. The classifier was trained for 89 370 iterations. The accuracy of the deep-learning classifier was assessed to 30 unseen cases, and the results revealed a Dice coefficient score of 0.81. For survival analysis, the classifier was then applied to the entire cohort of patients, which was split into a training (n = 156) and a test (n = 66) cohort. The automated DR classification had a higher prognostic significance for disease-specific survival than the manually classified DR in both the training and test cohorts. In addition, the automated DR classification outperformed the prognostic accuracy of the gold-standard factors of tumour depth and lymph node metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that DR can be objectively and quantitatively assessed in ESCC using a deep-learning classifier and that automatically classed DR has a higher prognostic significance than manual DR and other features currently used in the clinic.

Clinical Significance of Nutrition and Inflammation in Esophageal Cancer Patients with Surgery: A Meta-Analysis

Many studies have reported that the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) may be associated with prognosis of esophageal cancer (EC); however, the results are inconsistent. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of preoperative GNRI and CAR on the prognosis of EC. PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases were searched. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to analyze the relationship between GNRI/CAR and prognosis. Publication bias was estimated using Begg's funnel plot asymmetry test and Egger's test. A total of 21 studies comprising 5,018 patients were included in the meta-analysis. A decreased GNRI was significantly associated with poorer overall survival (OS) (HR = 1.808, 95% CI: 1.489-2.196, P < 0.001) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (HR = 1.769, 95% CI: 1.193-2.624, P = 0.005), and an increased CAR was significantly associated with lower OS (HR = 2.179, 95% CI: 1.587-2.992, P < 0.001), CSS (HR = 1.733, 95% CI: 1.333-2.253, P < 0.001), and recurrence-free survival (HR = 2.178, 95% CI: 1.328-3.573, P = 0.002). Thus, preoperative GNRI and CAR may be noninvasive and powerful tools for predicting survival outcomes in patients with EC.

Prognostic and Clinicopathologic Significance of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Esophageal Cancer: An Update Meta-Analysis

Background: Esophageal cancer is one of the most common cancers with significant morbidity and mortality. It is important to predict the prognosis of patients. The purpose of this study was to comprehensively assess the prognostic and clinicopathologic significance of NLR in patients with esophageal cancer. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, Web of Science, MEDLINE, and CNKI. This meta-analysis was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used as the effect estimation to evaluate the prognostic role of NLR. Odds ratio (OR) was used to evaluate the relation between NLR and clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: A total of 8431 patients from 32 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled results showed that elevated NLR might predict poor prognosis: The factors considered included overall survival (OS) (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.40-1.75; P < .001), cancer-specific survival (CSS) (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.09-1.49; P < .001), progression-free survival (PFS) (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.29-1.72; P < .001), and disease-free survival (DFS) (HR,1.58; 95% CI, 1.27-1.97; P < .001). High NLR was also associated with tumor differentiation, tumor length, tumor invasion depth, lymph node metastasis, and clinical stage. No significant association was observed between NLR and metastasis stage (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 0.98-2.98; P = .058). Conclusions: The results of this meta-analysis suggest that elevated NLR value might predict poor prognosis (OS, CSS, PFS, and DFS), according to abnormal clinicopathologic parameters.

Prognostic value of preoperative peripheral blood mean platelet volume/platelet count ratio (MPV/PC) in patients with resectable cervical cancer

BACKGROUND

The mean platelet volume/platelet count ratio (MPV/PC) ratio based on the preoperative peripheral MPV and PCcan be used to predict the prognosis of multiple malignant tumors.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of MPV/PC in cervical cancer patients.

METHODS

This study enrolled 408 patients who had undergone radical surgery for cervical cancer and evaluated the correlation of MPV/PC with patient prognosis in the primary cohort and validation cohort. Additionally, independent prognostic factors were incorporated to construct the prognostic nomogram, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) value was calculated to analyze the prognostic predictive ability of the nomogram.

RESULTS

In the primary cohort, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that the overall survival (OS) for patients with MPV/PC ≤ 0.41 was significantly lower than that in patients with MPV/PC > 0.41. MPV/PC was an independent prognostic factor for resectable cervical cancer patients. Compared with neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) or monocyte/lymphocyte ratio (MLR), the AUC values of MPV/PC in predicting the 3- and 5-year survival rates for cervical cancer patients were greater. Similar results were verified in the validation cohort. Subsequently, the nomogram constructed based on MPV/PC, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) classification and lymphovascular invasion performed well to accurately predict the prognosis of cervical cancer patients. The 3- and 5-year survival rates predicted by the nomogram were highly consistent with the real observations. Similar results were also displayed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

MPV/PC may be used as a novel independent prognostic factor for patients with resectable cervical cancer. Compared with the FIGO classification system, the nomogram integrating MPV/PC maybe reliably predict the survival of cervical cancer patients after radical surgery.

The value of complete blood count for the prognosis analysis of preoperative esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive value of preoperative complete blood count for the survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

METHODS

A total of 1587 patients with pathologically confirmed esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent esophagectomy in the Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Xinjiang Medical University from January 2010 to December 2019 were collected by retrospective study. A total of 359 patients were as the validation cohort from January 2015 to December 2016, and the remaining 1228 patients were as the training cohort. The relevant clinical data were collected by the medical record system, and the patients were followed up by the hospital medical record follow-up system. The follow-up outcome was patient death. The survival time of all patients was obtained. The Cox proportional hazards regression model and nomogram were established to predict the survival prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma by the index, their cut-off values obtained the training cohort by the ROC curve. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was established to express the overall survival rate. The 3-year and 5-year calibration curves and C-index were used to determine the accuracy and discrimination of the prognostic model. The decision curve analysis was used to predict the potential of clinical application. Finally, the validation cohort was used to verify the results of the training cohort.

RESULTS

The cut-off values of NLR, NMR, LMR, RDW and PDW in complete blood count of the training cohort were 3.29, 12.77, 2.95, 15.05 and 13.65%, respectively. All indicators were divided into high and low groups according to cut-off values. Univariate Cox regression analysis model showed that age (≥ 60), NLR (≥3.29), LMR (< 2.95), RDW (≥15.05%) and PDW (≥13.65%) were risk factors for the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; multivariate Cox regression analysis model showed that age (≥ 60), NLR (≥3.29) and LMR (< 2.95) were independent risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that age <  60, NLR < 3.52 and LMR ≥ 2.95 groups had higher overall survival (p <  0.05). The 3-year calibration curve indicated that its predictive probability overestimate the actual probability. 5-year calibration curve indicated that its predictive probability was consistent with the actual probability. 5 c-index was 0.730 and 0.737, respectively, indicating that the prognostic model had high accuracy and discrimination. The decision curve analysis indicated good potential for clinical application. The validation cohort also proved the validity of the prognostic model.

CONCLUSION

NLR and LMR results in complete blood count results can be used to predict the survival prognosis of patients with preoperative esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) and Monocyte-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR) Predict Clinical Outcome in Patients with Stage IIB Cervical Cancer

Introduction

Stage IIB cervical cancer (CC) is an advanced stage CC with poor prognosis. Inflammatory response plays a crucial role in the development of CC, and systemic inflammatory indexes were related to the prognosis in several cancers. The objective of the study was to determine the prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), basophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (BLR), and systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) as inflammatory indexes in patients with stage IIB CC.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective study was performed in 260 patients with stage IIB CC. PLR, NLR, MLR, BLR, and SIRI were obtained from routine blood tests. Prognosis information of the patients was acquired from regular clinical follow-up. Recurrence and response to therapy were determined through electronic medical records (EMRs). Correlations of the inflammatory indexes with overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), recurrence, and response to therapy were analyzed using SPSS version 26.0 software.

Results

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses suggested that NLR, MLR, and SIRI had better predictive value than PLR as well as BLR in the prognosis and recurrence risk. Both univariate and multivariate survival analyses showed that higher NLR and MLR were significantly associated with shorter OS as well as PFS, whereas SIRI was not an independent predictive factor of PFS. Chi-square test results revealed that increased NLR was significantly correlated with higher recurrence rate (P=0.046), and increased MLR showed significant correlation with elevated recurrence risk (P=0.002). Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses for response to therapy indicated that elevated NLR was associated with decreased complete remission (CR) rate (P=0.031), and the P value lost statistical significance while being adjusted by tumor size (P=0.108).

Conclusions

For patients with stage IIB CC, both NLR and MLR are independent prognostic factors as well as risk factors for recurrence; NLR serves as a potential marker for therapeutic response.

A Nutrition and Inflammation-Related Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival in Surgically Resected Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC) Patients

Pretreatment inflammation-based biomarkers and the prognostic nutrition index (PNI) have been used to evaluate prognosis in cancer patients. However, few studies have focused on the prognostic value of post-treatment inflammation-based biomarkers and PNI in ESCC patients. We aimed to investigate the values of pre/post-treatment inflammatory parameters and PNI for establishing a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in ESCC patients. A retrospective review was performed on 268 ESCC patients with esophagectomy. The prognostic values of inflammatory and nutrition indexes were evaluated. Based on the results of multivariable Cox analysis, a nomogram was developed. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined using the concordance-index (C-index) and a calibration curve and subsequently compared to tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). PreSII, PostSII, PrePNI, N stage, and TNM classification were assembled into a nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.774, and the area under curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.862. DCA demonstrated that the established nomogram was a better predictive model compared to the TNM system. The developed nomogram with superior predictive ability provides more valuable prognostic information for patients and clinicians than TNM classification.

A New Index AGR-PLR Score (APS) for Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Undergoing Radical Esophagectomy

Purpose

Biomarkers of the systemic inflammatory response and nutritional-related indicators have been used to assess the host anti-tumor immune response and predict prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However, a new indicator system combining platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and albumin-globulin ratio (AGR), AGR-PLR score (APS), has not yet been evaluated for the prognosis prediction among ESCC patients.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed, including 633 patients with ESCC, comprising 450 in the training cohort and 183 in the validation cohort.

Results

In this study, we found that the overall survival time among patients with an APS of 2 was significantly shorter than that among patients with an APS of 1, and the survival time of patients with an APS of 1 was significantly shorter than that of patients with an APS of 0. Multivariate analysis showed that the APS was an independent prognostic factor for patients with ESCC. The APS demonstrated better prognostic accuracy and effectiveness for ESCC patients than either PLR or AGR alone. In addition, a new prediction nomogram was established according to tumor grade, APS, and tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) stage. Compared with the traditional 8th version of TNM staging system, this nomogram demonstrated improved sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of 3- and 5-year survival.

Conclusion

APS is a novel independent prognostic indicator for the radical resection of ESCC and a potential biomarker for monitoring the therapeutic response.

A novel nomogram with preferable capability in predicting the overall survival of patients after radical esophageal cancer resection based on accessible clinical indicators: A comparison with AJCC staging

BACKGROUND

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a malignant tumor with high mortality. Nomogram is an important tool used in clinical prognostic assessment. We aimed to establish a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of EC patients after radical esophagectomy.

METHODS

Data pertaining to the survival, demography, and clinicopathology of 311 EC patients who underwent radical esophagectomy were retrospectively investigated. The nomogram was established based on Cox hazard regression analysis. The calibration curves and Harrell's concordance index (C-index) were used to verify the predictive accuracy and ROC curves were used to assess the efficacy of the nomogram. Kaplan-Meier curves showed the prognostic value of the related risk classification system. Pearson correlation test was performed to determine the correlation between the risk classification system and TNM staging.

RESULTS

The median OS and 5-year survival rates in the primary and validation cohorts were 44 months and 29.8%, and 52 months and 27.1%, respectively. We used six independent prognostic factors-age, Sex, AGR, PRL, N stage, and PNI-in the nomogram. The C-index of nomogram was 0.75 and 0.70 in the primary and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves indicated high consistency between actual and predicted OS. ROC curves showed that nomogram has a better efficacy compared with TNM staging in both cohorts. Patients were divided into three risk groups according to the total nomogram score, the median OS in each group was significantly different in both cohorts. Furthermore, the risk classification system was strongly correlated with the T and N staging system and exhibited a better OS prediction capability.

CONCLUSIONS

We established a novel and practical nomogram with a subordinate risk classification system to predict the OS of patients after radical esophagectomy. Compared with AJCC staging, this nomogram had preferable clinical capability in terms of individual prognosis assessment.

Prognostic value of the systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) before and after surgery in operable breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND

The new systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) constructed based on neutrophil, monocyte and lymphocyte counts in peripheral blood is considered to be related to the prognosis of a variety of tumours.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of the SIRI in operable breast cancer patients and establish a nomogram to predict the survival of breast cancer patients.

METHODS

A total of 949 patients with operable breast cancer were enrolled in the present study.

RESULTS

The overall survival (OS) of breast cancer patients with SIRI ⩽ 0.65 was significantly higher than that of breast cancer patients with SIRI > 0.65 (P< 0.001). A nomogram generated based on SIRI, grade and TNM stage and SIRI predicted the 5- and 10-year survival rates of breast cancer patients more accurately than TNM stage alone. In addition, the change in SIRI relative to baseline at 4 weeks after surgery was closely related to the survival of breast cancer patients. Compared with those with no SIRI changes (absolute value of variation < 25%), breast cancer patients with an increase in SIRI > 75% or 25-75% had worse OS (P< 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The SIRI before and after surgery is closely related to the prognosis of breast cancer patients.

Prognostic Significance of the Lung Immune Prognostic Index in Patients with Resected Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Background

The lung immune prognostic index (LIPI), a novel index combined with serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (dNLR), is recently proposed to predict prognosis in lung cancer. The LIPI is not a unique indicator for lung cancer. However, the prognostic role of LIPI has not yet been evaluated in extra-pulmonary cancer. The aim of this study was to determine whether LIPI is still a useful prognostic indicator for patients with resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods

The clinical data including preoperative laboratory results for 361 consecutive resected ESCC cases from 2007 to 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. A LIPI based on serum LDH and dNLR was conducted, characterizing into 3 groups (LIPI 0, 1 and 2). The association between LIPI and cancer-specific survival (CSS) was analyzed according to the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression analysis with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). A nomogram model was conducted by R 3.6.0 software.

Results

In this study, 220 (60.9%), 100 (27.7%) and 41 (11.4%) patients had a LIPI of 0, 1 and 2, respectively. The 5-year CSS for LIPI 0, 1 and 2 was 40.9%, 19.0% and 9.8%, respectively (P<0.001). Subgroup analysis based on TNM stage revealed that HALP was also significantly related to CSS in any stage (TNM I: P=0.002; TNM II: P=0.009; TNM III: P=0.031). The LIPI serves as an independent predictor regarding CSS in multivariate analyses in patients with resected ESCC. Compared to LIPI 0, LIPI 1 and 2 had an HR of 1.419 (95% CI: 1.063–1.895, P=0.018) and 2.064 (95% CI: 1.403–3.036, P<0.001) regarding CSS, respectively. A nomogram was also developed in individualized CSS prediction based on LIPI in patients with resected ESCC.

Conclusion

To the best of our knowledge, the present study is the first study to explore the association between LIPI and prognosis in patients with extra-pulmonary cancer. The LIPI, combined with LDH and dNLR, is still a potential independent prognostic marker in patients with resected ESCC.

A Novel Prognostic Marker Systemic Inflammation Response Index (SIRI) for Operable Cervical Cancer Patients

It has been confirmed that the systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) based on peripheral blood neutrophil, monocyte and lymphocyte counts can be used for the prognostication of patients with various malignant tumors. However, the prognostic value of SIRI in cervical cancer patients has not yet been reported. This study found that a higher SIRI was related to lymphovascular invasion and was also significantly associated with FIGO stage, radiotherapy, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and monocyte/lymphocyte ratio (MLR) but not related to other clinical and pathological parameters. According to the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, a high SIRI was associated with the poor prognosis of cervical cancer patients in the primary and validation groups. SIRI, NLR, PLR, and MLR can all be used to determine the prognosis of patients with operable cervical cancer. Moreover, it was confirmed that only SIRI was an independent prognostic factor for patients with operable cervical cancer. The same result was obtained in the propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. In the ROC curve analysis, SIRI was more accurate in predicting the prognosis of cervical cancer patients. Then, a nomogram was established based on SIRI, FIGO stage and lymphovascular invasion, which could determine the prognosis of cervical cancer patients more accurately than FIGO stage. The validation cohort showed the same results. In addition, the changes in SIRI relative to the baseline value at 4–8 weeks after surgery were closely related to the survival of cervical cancer patients. Compared with those with unchanged SIRI (absolute value of variation <25%), cervical cancer patients with an increase in SIRI > 75% had worse OS (P < 0.001), while patients with a decrease in SIRI > 75% had a better prognosis (P < 0.001). SIRI can serve as a new independent prognostic index and a potential marker for therapeutic response monitoring in patients with curable cervical cancer. Compared with the traditional FIGO staging system, the nomogram integrating SIRI can predict the survival of cervical cancer patients more objectively and reliably after radical surgery.

The prognostic value of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio in cancer: An updated meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated that the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) is correlated with the clinical outcomes of solid tumors. However, the available data have not been systematically evaluated. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to explore the prognostic value of the CAR in solid tumors.

METHODS

Eligible studies were identified from the PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science electronic databases. The clinical characteristics, disease -free survival (DFS) /progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were extracted from the eligible studies. The pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated with STATA 12.0 software. We also performed subgroup, meta-regression and sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In total, twenty-seven eligible studies including 10556 patients were enrolled in the present meta-analysis. The pooled HRs with 95% confidence intervals showed that the CAR was significantly associated with poor OS (HR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.71-2.22) and DFS/PFS (HR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.61-2.07) in patients with solid tumors. Although publication bias was found in the studies with regard to OS, a further trim and fill analysis revealed that the adjusted HR was 1.82 (95% CI: 1.69-1.96), which was close to the original HR. Subgroup analysis confirmed the CAR as a strong prognostic marker in patients with solid tumors, regardless of the tumor type, detection time, cut-off value, sample size and area.

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analysis indicated that a high CAR might be an unfavorable prognostic marker for OS and DFS/PFS in patients with solid tumors.

Prognostic role of the pretreatment C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in gastric cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In recent years, several studies have investigated the prognostic role of the pretreatment C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) in gastric cancer and yielded conflicting results. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to assess the prognostic role of the pretreatment CAR in gastric cancer.

METHODS

Studies assessing the prognostic role of the pretreatment CAR in patients with gastric cancer were searched from PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library up to June 6, 2019. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were estimated using a fixed-effects model.

RESULTS

Eight observational studies including 3102 patients were enrolled in this meta-analysis. The pooled result showed that patients with a high CAR had worse OS (pooled HR = 1.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.55-2.26; P < .001). Results from subgroup analyses indicated that patient country, adjuvant chemotherapy rate, and CAR cut-off value could not affected the property of the correlation (P < .001). However, the intensity of the correlation was affected by these factors. In addition, patients with a high CAR had significantly worse RFS (pooled HR = 2.11; 95% CI = 1.41-3.15; P < .001) and CSS (HR = 1.59; 95% CI = 1.08-2.35; P = .019).

CONCLUSION

A high pretreatment CAR was significantly associated with poor survival for patients with gastric cancer. The prognostic significance of the pretreatment CAR in gastric cancer is need to be confirmed by clinical trials of large sample size.

Prognostic role of pre-treatment C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in esophageal cancer: a meta-analysis

Background

In recent years, the role of pre-treatment C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) in prognosis of esophageal cancer (EC) has been investigated by several studies. This meta-analysis aimed to provide a more accurate and objective assessment of the prognostic value of pre-treatment CAR in EC.

Methods

Studies assessing the role of pre-treatment CAR in prognosis of EC were searched from PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library (last update by April 16, 2019). The hazard ratios (HRs) of CAR and the corresponding 95% CIs for overall survival (OS) or cancer-specific survival (CSS) in EC were extracted for pooled analysis.

Results

A total of eight observational studies including 2255 patients were collected. The pooled analysis showed that high CAR was related to worse OS in EC (pooled HR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.40–2.35; P < 0.001). Subgroup analyses showed that the negative correlation between the CAR and OS was consistently demonstrated in subgroups stratified by country, pathological type, and cut-off value (P < 0.05). However, there was no relation between CAR and OS in subgroup of patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy at a proportion of 100% (HR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.56–2.69; P = 0.715). In addition, high CAR was also related to worse CSS in EC (pooled HR = 2.61; 95% CI = 1.67–4.06; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

High pre-treatment CAR was an adverse prognostic factor for EC patients. More large-sample clinical trials are still needed to verify the prognostic value of pre-treatment CAR in EC.

Prognostic Value of the Systemic Inflammation Response Index in Patients with Adenocarcinoma of the Oesophagogastric Junction: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

Systemic inflammation is closely related to the occurrence and development of tumours. Based on preoperative neutrophil, monocyte, and lymphocyte counts, a new systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) was established, and the predictive ability of the SIRI for the survival of patients with adenocarcinoma of the oesophagogastric junction (AEG) was evaluated by propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. A total of 302 AEG patients undergoing radical surgery were studied. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive capabilities of the SIRI. PSM was implemented to balance the baseline characteristics. The results showed that the SIRI, PLR, NLR, and MLR were associated with overall survival (OS) in AEG patients based on the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the SIRI was an independent prognostic factor. The AUC for the SIRI was significantly greater than that for the NLR, PLR, and MLR in predicting the 3- and 5-year OS of AEG patients. In PSM analysis, the SIRI remained an independent prognostic indicator of OS in AEG patients. The SIRI is a novel, simple, and inexpensive prognostic predictor for AEG. The prognostic value of the SIRI is superior to that of the PLR, NLR, and MLR. The SIRI can be used to distinguish the prognosis of AEG patients with different TNM stages and can be an important supplement to TNM staging.

Circulating serum exosomal aHIF is a novel prognostic predictor for epithelial ovarian cancer

Purpose

Exosomes are key mediators of cellular communication by transporting molecules, including long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs), and have been regarded as promising non-invasive biomarkers. This study aimed to evaluate the expression pattern and clinical significance of serum exosomal lncRNA antisense hypoxia inducible factor (aHIF) in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC).

Patients and methods

Sixty-two EOC patients in Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University were enrolled. The expression levels of aHIF in tissues and serum exosomes were examined by RT-qPCR. The origin of serum exosomal aHIF was explored in vitro and in vivo. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic factors of EOC. A prognostic predictive nomogram was formulated in R software.

Results

We isolated exosomes, identified exosomal aHIF in the serum of EOC patients. The expression of serum exosomal aHIF was higher in EOC patients and was correlated with the aHIF level in EOC tissues. In vitro and in vivo, the results indicated that serum exosomal aHIF was derived from tumor cells. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that EOC patients with higher serum exosomal aHIF expression had poorer overall survival. Cox multivariate regression model revealed that FIGO stage, residual tumor size, and serum exosomal aHIF level were independent prognostic factors of EOC. Based on the prognostic value of serum exosomal aHIF, we established a nomogram model that showed a good predictive ability for EOC patients.

Conclusion

Serum exosomal aHIF is overexpressed in EOC and can serve as a noninvasive predictive biomarker for unfavorable prognosis.

Prognostic value of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio in esophageal cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

In recent years, some studies suggested that the pretreatment C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) may be predictive for prognosis of esophageal cancer (EC), but their results were inconsistent. Therefore, the current meta-analysis was preformed to better determine the prognostic value of pretreatment CAR in EC. The PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and PubMed Central databases were searched up to January 10, 2019 to identify studies evaluating the correlation between CAR and prognosis of EC. The primary outcome was the overall survival (OS) and secondary outcomes were disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to estimate the predictive role of CAR for prognosis in EC. Based on the results of this research, a total of 11 studies with 2930 patients diagnosed as EC were included. Pooled results suggested that elevated pretreatment CAR was significantly associated with poor OS (HR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.31-2.47, P < .001) with high heterogeneity (I² = 86.5%, P < .001) and poor CSS (HR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.33-2.22, P < .001) without heterogeneity (I² = 0.0%, P < .323); however, no significant association was observed between pretreatment CAR and DFS (HR = 1.41, 95% CI: 0.60-3.34, P = .429) with high heterogeneity (I² = 76.7%, P < .038). Subgroup analyses further manifested that EC patients with higher CAR had worse OS. An elevated pretreatment CAR may indicate poor survival in patients with EC. Thus, pretreatment CAR may serve as a promising biomarker in EC and could be used to predict prognosis and help decision-making in clinical work.

Association of the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index and systemic inflammation with survival in gastric cancer patients after radical gastrectomy

PURPOSE

To examine the associations of the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) and preoperative systemic inflammation with survival in gastric cancer (GC) patients who underwent radical gastrectomy.

METHODS

Data from patients with GC who underwent radical gastrectomy between January 2009 and December 2014 in Fujian Medical University Union Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the prognostic factors. The relationship between the ACCI and systemic inflammation of the patients was explored, and the prognostic value of a new scoring system based on the ACCI and systemic inflammation (ANLR) was evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 2257 patients with GC were included. The ACCI and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (both P < 0.001) by multivariate analysis. A higher ACCI was an independent predictor of the increase in preoperative NLR (P < 0.001). Based on the preoperative ACCI and NLR, we established a novel marker, ANLR. Multivariate analysis showed that the ANLR was a significant independent predictor of 5-year OS (P < 0.001). The Harrell's C-statistics (C-index) of a model combining the ANLR and pTNM was 0.744 (95% CI: 0.728-0.760), which was significantly higher than the pTNM stage (0.717, 95% CI: 0.702-0.731; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The ACCI of patients with gastric cancer was associated with preoperative systemic inflammation. The ACCI combined with the NLR, which are commonly collected biomarkers, could enhance prognostication for GC patients.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as prognostic marker in esophageal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

A high preoperative neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been shown in several studies as a predictor of worse survival in many solid neoplasms, including esophageal cancer, but its impact remains unclear. The goal of this systematic review was to gain all the evidence about NLR in order to analyse its potential in predicting survival in esophageal cancer. Therefore, we conducted a systematic literature search of all relevant studies reporting data on NLR as prognostic marker in esophageal cancer patients. We considered overall survival (OS) as primary outcome, disease-free survival (DFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) as secondary outcomes. We included studies with a directly or indirectly available hazard ratio (HR), furthermore we used both fixed effect model and random effect model depending on heterogeneity. We included a total of 20 studies, published between 2011 and 2017, consisting of 6,457 patients. The NLR cut-off value ranges from 1.7 to 5. The HR for OS of all included studies was 1.60. The HR for DFS and PFS was 1.75 and 1.66 respectively. The survival sub-analysis about tumor characteristics, treatment modality, blood sample timing also confirmed NLR prognostic relevance with statistically significant results. The meta-analysis showed that high preoperative NLR is associated with worse survival in esophageal cancer, as shown in several solid tumors, but its use in the clinical practice is still underestimated. High-quality studies are needed to assess the most effective cut-off in survival prognostication and NLR relevance on postoperative complications.

Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) is useful to predict survival outcomes in patients with surgically resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background: The systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) has been reported to be associated with patient survival in various kinds of solid tumors. However, just few studies have focused on its prognostic value in patients with surgically resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Materials and Methods: This study was a single-institution, retrospective analysis of 468 ESCC patients who underwent curative esophagectomy at the Department of Thoracic Surgery, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College between 2005 and 2008. The receiver operating curve (ROC) was plotted to compare the discrimination ability of the SII and other inflammatory factors for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model.

Results: The SII, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were all associated with OS in ESCC patients. The SII, NLR, and PLR were independent prognostic factors for OS (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.604, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.247-2.063, P < 0.001; HR = 1.396, 95% CI 1.074-1.815, P = 0.013; HR = 1.370, 95% CI 1.067-1.758, P = 0.013, respectively) and DFS (HR = 1.681, 95% CI 1.307-2.162, P < 0.001; HR = 1.376, 95% CI 1.059-1.788, P = 0.017; HR = 1.398, 95% CI 1.089-1.794, P = 0.009, respectively). The area under the curve (AUC) for SII was bigger than NLR, PLR, and MLR (0.553, 0.540, 0.532, and 0.521, respectively).

Conclusion: The SII is a simple and promising prognostic predictor for patients with surgically resected ESCC. The prognostic value of SII is superior to those of the NLR, PLR and MLR. Moreover, the SII retained prognostic significance in stage I-II ESCC subgroup (OS, DFS) and stage III ESCC subgroup (DFS).

A model based on endoscopic morphology of submucosal esophageal squamous cell carcinoma for determining risk of metastasis on lymph nodes

Background

It is important to identify patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in T1b stage that are the least likely to metastasize on the lymph nodes, to undergo endoscopic resection, especially for the patients unfit for esophagectomy. The relationship between endoscopic morphology and frequency of nodal metastasis has never been well studied. The aims of the study were to investigate the predictive value of endoscopic morphology for lymphatic metastasis, and to develop a risk stratification model in submucosal (T1b) ESCC.

Methods

Pathologic variables of patients with T1b ESCC who underwent esophagectomy from 2006 through 2016 were collected and divided into training sets (patients between 2006 and 2011) and validation sets (patients between 2012 and 2016). The endoscopic morphology of the tumor was determined by analyzing endoscopic reports according to the Paris classification. The correlation between the clinicopathological factors and nodal metastasis was examined. A prediction model was developed to estimate the risk of metastasis using these predictors.

Results

A total of 175 patients were included in this study. A tumor with an endoscopic shape of flat type (0-II type as Paris classification was defined) was significantly related to lower risk of lymphatic metastasis with the frequency of 15.5% (OR: 3.049, 95% CI: 1.363-6.819, P=0.005). The combination of endoscopic morphology with other pathologic characteristics including lymphovascular invasion, length of tumor, depth of tumor invasion into submucosa, and tumor differentiation improved the predictive value of the nodal metastasis. The risk stratification model was developed with a C-index of 0.726 (95% CI: 0.702-0.751), which identified a low risk subgroup with a lymph node rate of 7.2%.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that when a tumor is in flat shape (0-II type) it is related to a less lymphatic metastasis, and the combination of the endoscopic morphology with the other four pathologic variables can yield a more robust approach to predict the risk of lymphatic metastasis in submucosal ESCC.

Nomogram incorporating clinicopathological parameters to predict the survival of patients with mantle cell lymphoma

This study intended to present a practicable prognostic nomogram for patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). The clinical data of 281 patients were reviewed. A nomogram that could predict overall survival (OS) was constructed based on the Cox proportional hazard model. To compare the capacity of the nomogram with the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and MCL International Prognostic Index (MIPI) scoring systems, we used the concordance index (C-index) to validate the veracity and the calibration curve. Age, Eastern Cooperation Oncology Group, lactate dehydrogenase, white cell count and Ki-67 were independent prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis and were subsequently included in the nomogram construction. The C-index was 0.81 and 0.79 in the primary and validation cohorts, respectively, which were superior to the predictive capacity of the IPI and MIPI systems in both cohorts. The nomogram makes it possible for physicians to predict patient OS individually and correctly, but certain limitations are noted.

Development and validation of nomogram based on SIRI for predicting the clinical outcome in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinomas

The Systemic Inflammation Response Index (SIRI), based on peripheral lymphocyte, neutrophil, and monocyte counts, was recently investigated as a prognostic marker for several tumors. However, use of the SIRI has not been reported for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We evaluated the prognostic value of the SIRI in primary and validation cohorts. We also established an effective prognostic nomogram for NPC based on clinicopathological parameters and the SIRI. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration curve and were compared with tumor-node-metastasis classifications. Our Kaplan-Meier survival analysis results showed that the SIRI was associated with the overall survival of patients with NPC in the primary and validation cohorts. The SIRI was identified to be an independent prognostic factor for NPC. In addition, we developed and validated a new prognostic nomogram that integrated clinicopathological factors and the SIRI. This nomogram can efficiently predict the prognosis of patients with NPC. The SIRI is a novel, simple and inexpensive prognostic predictor for patients with NPC. The SIRI has important value for predicting the prognosis of patients with NPC and developing individualized treatment plans.

Predicting prognosis in resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma using a clinical nomogram and recursive partitioning analysis

BACKGROUND

Development demand of precise medicine in resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) require to recognize patients at high risk treated by surgery alone. Thus, our aim was to construct a clinical nomogram and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) to predict long-term survival in ESCC treated by surgery alone.

METHODS

Based on the patients with ESCC who treated by three-incisional esophagectomy and two-field lymphadenectomy alone, we identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for survival to build a nomogram. The nomogram was calibrated for overall survival (OS) and the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability was measured by concordance index (c-index) and Akaike information criterion (AIC). Based on the nomogram, the RPA was performed for risk stratification.

RESULTS

A total of 747 patients were included for analysis. Five independent prognostic factors were identified and entered into the nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The AIC value of the nomogram was lower than that of the 7th edition staging system, whereas the c-index of the nomogram was higher than that of the 7th edition staging system. The risk groups stratified by RPA allowed significant distinction between survival curves within respective TNM categories.

CONCLUSION

The RPA based on a clinical nomogram appears to be suitable for risk stratification in OS for resected ESCC. This practical system may help clinicians in decision making and design of clinical studies.

Survival prediction tools for esophageal and gastroesophageal junction cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Clinical, pathological, and molecular information combined with cancer stage in prognostication algorithms can offer more personalized estimates of survival, which might guide treatment choices. Our aim was to evaluate the quality of prognostication tools in esophageal cancer.

METHODS

We systematically searched MedLine and Embase from 2005 to 2017 for studies reporting development or validation of models predicting long-term survival in esophageal cancer. We evaluated tools using the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies guidelines and the American Joint Committee on Cancer acceptance criteria for risk models.

RESULTS

We identified 16 prognostication tools for patients treated with curative intent and 1 for patients with metastatic disease. These tools frequently excluded adenocarcinoma, contained outdated data, and were developed with a limited sample size. Nine tools were developed in China for squamous cell cancer, and 11 used data on patients diagnosed before 2010. Most tools excluded key prognostic factors such as age and sex. Tumor stage and grade were the most commonly, but not universally, included factors. Twelve tools were designed to predict overall survival; 5 predicted cancer-specific survival. Bootstrap internal validation was performed for most tools; c-statistics ranged from 0.63 to 0.77 and graphically evaluated calibration was "good." Five tools were externally validated; c-statistics ranged from 0.70 to 0.77.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing tools cannot be confidently used for esophageal cancer prognostication in current clinical practice. Better-quality tools might help to more individually and accurately estimate disease course, select further treatments, and risk-stratify for future clinical trials.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as prognostic indicator in gastrointestinal cancers: a systematic review and meta-analysis

An accurate, time efficient, and inexpensive prognostic indicator is needed to reduce cost and assist with clinical decision making for cancer management. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), which is derived from common serum testing, has been explored in a variety of cancers. We sought to determine its prognostic value in gastrointestinal cancers and performed a meta-analysis of published studies using the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines. Included were randomized control trials and observational studies that analyzed humans with gastrointestinal cancers that included NLR and hazard ratios (HR) with overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and/or cancer-specific survival (CSS).

We analyzed 144 studies comprising 45,905 patients, two-thirds of which were published after 2014. The mean, median, and mode cutoffs for NLR reporting OS from multivariate models were 3.4, 3.0, 5.0 (±IQR 2.5-5.0), respectively. Overall, NLR greater than the cutoff was associated with a HR for OS of 1.63 (95% CI, 1.53-1.73; P < 0.001). This association was observed in all subgroups based on tumor site, stage, and geographic region. HR for elevated NLR for DFS, PFS, and CSS were 1.70 (95% CI, 1.52-1.91, P < 0.001), 1.64 (95% CI, 1.36-1.97, P < 0.001), and 1.83 (95% CI, 1.50-2.23, P < 0.001), respectively.

Available evidence suggests that NLR greater than the cutoff reduces OS, independent of geographic location, gastrointestinal cancer type, or stage of cancer. Furthermore, DFS, PFS, and CSS also have worse outcomes with elevated NLR.

Prediction models for patients with esophageal or gastric cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Clinical prediction models are increasingly used to predict outcomes such as survival in cancer patients. The aim of this study was threefold. First, to perform a systematic review to identify available clinical prediction models for patients with esophageal and/or gastric cancer. Second, to evaluate sources of bias in the included studies. Third, to investigate the predictive performance of the prediction models using meta-analysis.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and The Cochrane Library were searched for publications from the year 2000 onwards. Studies describing models predicting survival, adverse events and/or health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for esophageal or gastric cancer patients were included. Potential sources of bias were assessed and a meta-analysis, pooled per prediction model, was performed on the discriminative abilities (c-indices).

Results

A total of 61 studies were included (45 development and 16 validation studies), describing 47 prediction models. Most models predicted survival after a curative resection. Nearly 75% of the studies exhibited bias in at least 3 areas and model calibration was rarely reported. The meta-analysis showed that the averaged c-index of the models is fair (0.75) and ranges from 0.65 to 0.85.

Conclusion

Most available prediction models only focus on survival after a curative resection, which is only relevant to a limited patient population. Few models predicted adverse events after resection, and none focused on patient’s HRQoL, despite its relevance. Generally, the quality of reporting is poor and external model validation is limited. We conclude that there is a need for prediction models that better meet patients’ information needs, and provide information on both the benefits and harms of the various treatment options in terms of survival, adverse events and HRQoL.

Development and validation of nomogram based on miR-203 and clinicopathological characteristics predicting survival after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery for patients with non-metastatic osteosarcoma

Background

Recently, nomograms have been used as models for risk prediction in malignant tumor because they can predict the outcome of interest for a certain individual based on many variables. This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for osteosarcoma based on the clinicopathological factors and microRNA-203.

Results

The results showed that miR-203 expression was significantly lower in osteosarcoma tissues compared with the corresponding adjacent tissues (P < 0.001). Patients with low miR-203 expression had poor overall survival (OS) in osteosarcoma. The histological type, tumor size, AJCC stage and miR-203 expression were integrated in the nomogram. The nomogram showed significantly better prediction of OS than for patients with non-metastatic osteosarcoma. The ROC curve also showed higher specificity and sensitivity for predicting 3- and 5-year osteosarcoma patients’ survival compared with AJCC stage. The decision curve analysis also indicated more potential of clinical application of the nomogram compared with AJCC staging system. Moreover, our findings were supported by the validation cohort.

Materials and Methods

We retrospectively investigated 301 patients with non-metastatic osteosarcoma. Data from primary cohort (n = 198) were used to develop multivariate nomograms. This nomogram was internally validated for discrimination and calibration with bootstrap samples and was externally validated with an independent patient cohort (n = 103).

Conclusions

Our proposed nomogram showed more accurate prognostic prediction for patients with non-metastatic osteosarcoma.

Development and validation of nomogram based on lncRNA ZFAS1 for predicting survival in lymph node-negative esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients

Background

There is increasing evidence of a relationship between long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) and cancer. This study aimed to examine the prognostic value of the lncRNA ZFAS1 in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Results

The results showed that ZFAS1 expression was significantly higher in ESCC tissues compared with the corresponding adjacent normal tissues (P < 0.001). ESCC patients with high ZFAS1 expression had a poor overall survival (OS). Histological grade, T stage and ZFAS1 expression were integrated to develop the nomogram. The nomogram showed a significantly better prediction of OS for patients with lymph node-negative ESCC. The ROC curve also showed higher specificity and sensitivity for predicting 3- and 5-year ESCC patient survival compared with the AJCC staging system. The decision curve analysis also indicated a greater potential for the nomogram in clinical application compared with the AJCC staging system. Importantly, our findings were supported by a validation cohort.

Materials and Methods

We retrospectively investigated 398 lymph node-negative ESCC patients. Data from the primary cohort (n = 246) were used to develop a multivariate nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated for discrimination and calibration with bootstrap samples and was externally validated with an independent patient cohort (n = 152).

Conclusions

Our proposed nomogram, which integrates clinicopathological factors and ZFAS1 expression, can accurately predict the prognosis of lymph node-negative ESCC patients without preoperative chemoradiotherapy.

MABp1 for the treatment of colorectal cancer

INTRODUCTION

Inflammation is an established process in colorectal cancer development and a hallmark of progression, and pro-inflammatory cytokines have been implicated in the morbidity and functional compromise associated with malignancy. MABp1, described as a first-in-class true human antibody against interleukin-1α, has undergone clinical trial evaluation in a number of indications, recently completing late phase clinical trial testing under Fast Track designation for cancer anorexia-cachexia syndrome in colorectal cancer patients. To date, MABp1 has been evaluated as a novel therapeutic strategy to ameliorate phenotypic factors associated with poor prognosis in colorectal cancer patients. Areas covered: In this review, the authors discuss the clinical trial data available to date for this antibody in colorectal cancer, including novel clinical trial endpoints utilized to evaluate sarcopenia and inflammation, as well as the proposed role of interleukin-1α antagonism in leading to improved patient outcomes. Expert opinion: There is a multitude of antibodies in therapeutic development in oncology, and MABp1 is a novel class of antibody which has been safely tolerated to date. Clinical studies of this agent suggest a significant improvement in lean body mass, though additional results evaluating the impact of targeting inflammation as a strategy to delay disease progression in this population are awaited.

A retrospective study on the prognostic value of preoperative neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio in patients with primary small-cell carcinoma of the esophagus

INTRODUCTION

There is increasing evidence that systemic inflammation influences the prognosis in patients with malignant tumors. The aim of this research was to investigate the prognostic value of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with primary small-cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed 129 patients with primary small-cell carcinoma of the esophagus who underwent esophagectomy in The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University between January 2008 and December 2010. NLRs were calculated by using the following formula: peripheral neutrophil count/lymphocyte count (10⁹/L). Correlations of NLR with other clinicopathologic data and prognosis were analyzed. The survival rate was calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. The differences between groups were compared by using the log-rank test. Cox regression was used to analyze the factors that may affect the survival of the patients.

RESULTS

The survival rate was found to be related to tumor stage, tumor location, nodal metastasis, TNM stage, histology, adjuvant therapy, and NLR (all P<0.05). High-NLR group had significantly poorer survival than low-NLR group (1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates: 46.6% vs 57.1%, 21.9% vs 50.0%, and 5.5% vs 23.2%, respectively, P=0.002). NLR was identified as an independent prognostic factor for patients with primary small-cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

CONCLUSION

NLR is a valuable clinical marker in preoperative estimation as well as prognosis prediction for patients with primary small-cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

Prognostic and clinicopathologic significance of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: evidence from a meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Evidence from an increasing number of studies has demonstrated that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a prognostic factor for various cancers. However, it is unclear whether NLR predicts prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the prognostic and clinicopathologic significance of NLR in patients with ESCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Selected studies were identified by searches in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases and filtered using our prepared criteria. The hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio were chosen as effect measures to assess the prognostic role of NLR and its clinicopathologic significance in ESCC. In total, nine studies containing 2,513 patients were enrolled.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that elevated NLR was associated with worse overall survival in ESCC patients (pooled HR =1.314; 95% confidence interval, 1.164-1.484; P<0.001). Elevated NLR was also associated with unfavorable characteristics regarding depth of tumor invasion, tumor size, clinical stage, and differentiation degree.

CONCLUSION

The results of our meta-analysis suggest that a high NLR value might represent a poor prognosis and worse clinicopathologic characteristics for patients with ESCC.

Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index Predicts Prognosis of Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Propensity Score-matched Analysis

Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), based on peripheral lymphocyte, neutrophil, and platelet counts, was recently investigated as a prognostic marker in several tumors. However, SII has not been reported in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We evaluated the prognostic value of the SII in 916 patients with ESCC who underwent radical surgery. Univariate and multivariate analyses were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to compare the discrimination ability for OS. PSM (propensity score matching) was carried out to imbalance the baseline characteristics. Our results showed that SII, PLR, NLR and MLR were all associated with OS in ESCC patients in the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. However, only SII was an independent risk factor for OS (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.53, P = 0.042) among these systemic inflammation scores. The AUC for SII was bigger than PLR, NLR and MLR. In the PSM analysis, SII still remained an independent predictor for OS (HR = 1.30, CI 1.05–1.60, P = 0.018). SII is a novel, simple and inexpensive prognostic predictor for patients with ESCC undergoing radical esophagectomy. The prognostic value of SII is superior to PLR, NLR and MLR.

Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Survival of Esophageal Cancer Patients after Esophagectomy

The aim of this study was to construct an effective clinical nomogram for predicting the survival of esophageal cancer patients after esophagectomy. We identified esophageal cancer patients (n = 4,281) who underwent esophagectomy between 1988 and 2007 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries database. Clinically significant parameters for survival were used to construct a nomogram based on Cox regression analyses. The model was validated using bootstrap resampling and a Chinese cohort (n = 145). A total of 4,109 patients from the SEER database were included for analysis. The multivariate analyses showed that the factors of age, race, histology, tumor site, tumor size, grade and depth of invasion, and the numbers of metastases and retrieved nodes were independent prognostic factors. All of these factors were selected into the nomogram. The nomogram showed a clear prognostic superiority over the seventh AJCC-TNM classification (C-index: SEER cohort, 0.716 vs 0.693, respectively; P < 0.01; Chinese cohort, 0.699 vs 0.680, respectively; P < 0.01). Calibration of the nomogram predicted the probabilities of 3- and 5-year survival, which corresponded closely with the actual survival rates. This novel prognostic model may improve clinicians’ abilities to predict individualized survival and to make treatment recommendations.