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Tong L, Ji L, Li D, Xu H. The occurrence of COVID-19 is associated with air quality and relative humidity. J Med Virol 2022; 94:965-970. [PMID: 34647628 PMCID: PMC8661927 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2021] [Revised: 09/23/2021] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
The association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 is important for the prevention and control of COVID-19. However, similar studies are relatively rare in China. This study aims to investigate the association between COVID-19 and meteorological factors, such as average temperature, relative humidity, and air quality index (AQI), and average wind speed. We collected the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 and meteorological factors in Shanghai China from January 10, 2020 to March 31, 2020. A generalized additive model was fitted to quantify the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 during the study period. A negative association between average temperature and daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 was found on lag 13 days. In addition, we observed a significant positive correlation between meteorological factors (AQI, relative humidity) and daily confirmed cases of COVID-19. A 10 increase in AQI (lag1/7/8/9/10 days) was correlated with a 4.2%-9.0% increase in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19. A 1% increase in relative humidity (lag1/4/7/8/9/10 days) was correlated with 1.7%-3.7% increase in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19. However, the associations between average wind speed and the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 is complex in different lag days. In summary, meteorological factors could affect the occurrence of COVID-19. Reducing the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 may be an important public health action for the prevention and control of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ling Tong
- Division of Health Risk Factors Monitoring and Control, Department of Environmental HealthShanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Shanghai Institutes of Preventive MedicineShanghaiChina
| | - Lu Ji
- Department of Infectious Diseases Monitoring and ControlShanghai Yangpu Center for Disease Control and PreventionShanghaiChina
| | - Dan Li
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Ear‐warningChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Huihui Xu
- Division of Health Risk Factors Monitoring and Control, Department of Environmental HealthShanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Shanghai Institutes of Preventive MedicineShanghaiChina
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Huang X, Ma W, Law C, Luo J, Zhao N. Importance of applying Mixed Generalized Additive Model (MGAM) as a method for assessing the environmental health impacts: Ambient temperature and Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI), among elderly in Shanghai, China. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0255767. [PMID: 34383808 PMCID: PMC8360529 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2020] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Association between acute myocardial infarction (AMI) morbidity and ambient temperature has been examined with generalized linear model (GLM) or generalized additive model (GAM). However, the effect size by these two methods might be biased due to the autocorrelation of time series data and arbitrary selection of degree of freedom of natural cubic splines. The present study analyzed how the climatic factors affected AMI morbidity for older adults in Shanghai with Mixed generalized additive model (MGAM) that addressed these shortcomings mentioned. Autoregressive random effect was used to model the relationship between AMI and temperature, PM10, week days and time. The degree of freedom of time was chosen based on the seasonal pattern of temperature. The performance of MGAM was compared with GAM on autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and goodness of fit. One-year predictions of AMI counts in 2011 were conducted using MGAM with the moving average. Between 2007 and 2011, MGAM adjusted the autocorrelation of AMI time series and captured the seasonal pattern after choosing the degree of freedom of time at 5. Using MGAM, results were well fitted with data in terms of both internal (R2 = 0.86) and external validity (correlation coefficient = 0.85). The risk of AMI was relatively high in low temperature (Risk ratio = 0.988 (95% CI 0.984, 0.993) for under 12°C) and decreased as temperature increased and speeded up within the temperature zone from 12°C to 26°C (Risk ratio = 0.975 (95% CI 0.971, 0.979), but it become increasing again when it is 26°C although not significantly (Risk ratio = 0.999 (95% CI 0.986, 1.012). MGAM is more appropriate than GAM in the scenario of response variable with autocorrelation and predictors with seasonal variation. The risk of AMI was comparatively higher when temperature was lower than 12°C in Shanghai as a typical representative location of subtropical climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoqian Huang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Weiping Ma
- Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States of America
- Icahn Institute of Genomics and Multiscale Biology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States of America
| | - Chikin Law
- NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Jianfeng Luo
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- * E-mail:
| | - Naiqing Zhao
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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Gregório V, Pedroza D, Barbosa C, Bezerra G, Montarroyos U, Bonfim C, Medeiros Z. Predicting the detection of leprosy in a hyperendemic area of Brazil: Using time series analysis. Indian J Dermatol Venereol Leprol 2021; 87:651-659. [PMID: 33666042 DOI: 10.25259/ijdvl_1082_19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2019] [Accepted: 06/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Brazil has the second highest prevalence of leprosy worldwide. Autoregressive integrated moving average models are useful tools in surveillance systems because they provide reliable forecasts from epidemiological time series. AIM To evaluate the temporal patterns of leprosy detection from 2001 to 2015 and forecast for 2020 in a hyperendemic area in northeastern Brazil. METHODS A cross-sectional study was conducted using monthly leprosy detection from the Brazil information system for notifiable diseases. The Box-Jenkins method was applied to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. Forecasting models (95% prediction interval) were developed to predict leprosy detection for 2020. RESULTS A total of 44,578 cases were registered with a mean of 247.7 cases per month. The best-fitted model to make forecasts was the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average ((1,1,1); (1,1,1)). It was predicted 0.32 cases/100,000 inhabitants to January of 2016 and 0.38 cases/100,000 inhabitants to December of 2020. LIMITATIONS This study used secondary data from Brazil information system for notifiable diseases; hence, leprosy data may be underreported. CONCLUSION The forecast for leprosy detection rate for December 2020 was < 1 case/100,000 inhabitants. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model has been shown to be appropriate and could be used to forecast leprosy detection rates. Thus, this strategy can be used to facilitate prevention and elimination programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vera Gregório
- Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil
| | - Dinilson Pedroza
- Department of Economics, Catholic University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil
| | - Celivane Barbosa
- Aggeu Magalhães Research Center, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Brazil
| | - Gilberto Bezerra
- Aggeu Magalhães Research Center, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Brazil
| | - Ulisses Montarroyos
- Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil
| | - Cristine Bonfim
- Social Research Division, Joaquim Nabuco Foundation, Ministry of Education, Recife, Brazil
| | - Zulma Medeiros
- Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil
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Ma Y, Liu K, Hu W, Song S, Zhang S, Shao Z. Epidemiological Characteristics, Seasonal Dynamic Patterns, and Associations with Meteorological Factors of Rubella in Shaanxi Province, China, 2005-2018. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020; 104:166-174. [PMID: 33241784 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0585] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Rubella occurs worldwide, causing approximately 100,000 cases annually of congenital rubella syndrome, leading to severe birth defects. Better targeting of public health interventions is needed to achieve rubella elimination goals. To that end, we measured the epidemiological characteristics and seasonal dynamic patterns of rubella and determined its association with meteorological factors in Shaanxi Province, China. Data on rubella cases in Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2018 were obtained from the Chinese National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. The Morlet wavelet analysis was used to estimate temporal periodicity of rubella incidence. Mixed generalized additive models were used to measure associations between meteorological variables (temperature and relative humidity) and rubella incidence. A total of 17,185 rubella cases were reported in Shaanxi during the study period, for an annual incidence of 3.27 cases per 100,000 population. Interannual oscillations in rubella incidence of 0.8-1.4 years, 3.8-4.8 years, and 0.5 years were detected. Both temperature and relative humidity exhibited nonlinear associations with the incidence of rubella. The accumulative relative risk of transmission for the overall pooled estimates was maximized at a temperature of 0.23°C and relative humidity of 41.6%. This study found that seasonality and meteorological factors have impact on the transmission of rubella; public health interventions to eliminate rubella must consider periodic and seasonal fluctuations as well as meteorological factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Ma
- 1Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, People's Republic of China.,2Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, People's Republic of China
| | - Kun Liu
- 1Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, People's Republic of China
| | - Weijun Hu
- 2Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, People's Republic of China
| | - Shuxuan Song
- 1Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, People's Republic of China
| | - Shaobai Zhang
- 2Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhongjun Shao
- 1Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, People's Republic of China
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Meadows KL, Silver GM. The Effects of Various Weather Conditions as a Potential Ischemic Stroke Trigger in Dogs. Vet Sci 2017; 4:vetsci4040056. [PMID: 29144407 PMCID: PMC5753636 DOI: 10.3390/vetsci4040056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2017] [Revised: 11/04/2017] [Accepted: 11/14/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Stroke is the fifth leading cause of death in the United States, and is the leading cause of serious, long-term disability worldwide. There are at least 795,000 new or recurrent strokes each year, and approximately 85% of all stroke occurrences are ischemic. Unfortunately, companion animals are also at risk for ischemic stroke. Although the exact incidence of ischemic stroke in companion animals is unknown, some studies, and the veterinary information network (VIN), report that approximately 3% of neurological case referrals are due to a stroke. There is a long list of predisposing factors associated with the risk of ischemic stroke in both humans and canines; however, these factors do not explain why a stroke happens at a particular time on a particular day. Our understanding of these potential stroke “triggers” is limited, and the effect of transient environmental exposures may be one such “trigger”. The present study investigated the extent to which the natural occurrence of canine ischemic stroke was related to the weather conditions in the time-period immediately preceding the onset of stroke. The results of the present study demonstrated that the change in weather conditions could be a potential stroke trigger, with the strokes evaluated occurring after periods of rapid, large fluctuations in weather conditions. There are currently no epidemiological data on the seasonal variability of ischemic stroke in dogs, and determining whether canine stroke parallels human stroke would further validate the use of companion dogs as an appropriate naturally occurring model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristy L Meadows
- Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine, Tufts University, 200 Westboro Rd., Grafton, MA 01536, USA.
| | - Gena M Silver
- Massachusetts Veterinary Referral Hospital, 20 Cabot Rd., Woburn, MA 01801, USA.
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Zeng Q, Li D, Huang G, Xia J, Wang X, Zhang Y, Tang W, Zhou H. Time series analysis of temporal trends in the pertussis incidence in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016. Sci Rep 2016; 6:32367. [PMID: 27577101 PMCID: PMC5006025 DOI: 10.1038/srep32367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2016] [Accepted: 08/08/2016] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Short-term forecast of pertussis incidence is helpful for advanced warning and planning resource needs for future epidemics. By utilizing the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model as alterative models with R software, this paper analyzed data from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) between January 2005 and June 2016. The ARIMA (0,1,0)(1,1,1)12 model (AICc = 1342.2 BIC = 1350.3) was selected as the best performing ARIMA model and the ETS (M,N,M) model (AICc = 1678.6, BIC = 1715.4) was selected as the best performing ETS model, and the ETS (M,N,M) model with the minimum RMSE was finally selected for in-sample-simulation and out-of-sample forecasting. Descriptive statistics showed that the reported number of pertussis cases by China CDC increased by 66.20% from 2005 (4058 cases) to 2015 (6744 cases). According to Hodrick-Prescott filter, there was an apparent cyclicity and seasonality in the pertussis reports. In out of sample forecasting, the model forecasted a relatively high incidence cases in 2016, which predicates an increasing risk of ongoing pertussis resurgence in the near future. In this regard, the ETS model would be a useful tool in simulating and forecasting the incidence of pertussis, and helping decision makers to take efficient decisions based on the advanced warning of disease incidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qianglin Zeng
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University, School of Clinical Medicine, Chengdu University, China
| | - Dandan Li
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, China
| | - Gui Huang
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University, School of Clinical Medicine, Chengdu University, China
| | - Jin Xia
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University, School of Clinical Medicine, Chengdu University, China
| | - Xiaoming Wang
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University, School of Clinical Medicine, Chengdu University, China
| | - Yamei Zhang
- Central Laboratory, Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University, School of Clinical Medicine, Chengdu University, China
| | - Wanping Tang
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University, School of Clinical Medicine, Chengdu University, China
| | - Hui Zhou
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University, School of Clinical Medicine, Chengdu University, China
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