Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora

Host tree availability shapes potential distribution of a target epiphytic moss species more than direct climate effects

Climate change significantly impacts the distribution of woody plants, indirectly influencing the dynamics of entire ecosystems. Understanding species' varied responses to the environment and their reliance on biotic interactions is crucial for predicting the global changes' impact on woodland biodiversity. Our study focusses on Dicranum viride, a moss of conservation priority, and its dependence on specific phorophytes (host trees). Using species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques, we initially modelled its distribution using climate-only variables. As a novel approach, we also modelled the distribution of the main phorophyte species and incorporated them into D. viride SDM alongside climate data. Finally, we analysed the overlap of climatic and geographic niches between the epiphyte and the phorophytes. Inclusion of biotic interactions significantly improved model performance, with phorophyte availability emerging as the primary predictor. This underscores the significance of epiphyte-phorophyte interactions, supported by substantial niche overlap. Predictions indicate a potential decline in the suitability of most of the current areas for D. viride, with noticeable shifts towards the northern regions of Europe. Our study underscores the importance of incorporating biotic interactions into SDMs, especially for dependent organisms. Understanding such connections is essential to implement successful conservation strategies and adapt forest management practices to environmental changes.

A multitaxa approach to biodiversity inventory in Matela protected area (Terceira, Azores, Portugal)

Background

This manuscript is the first contribution of the project, "Matela - uma ilha de biodiversidade" ("Matela - an island of biodiversity"), that aims to restore the native vegetation within the Azorean Protected Area of the Terceira Island Nature Park known as the "Protected Area for the Management of Habitats or Species of Matela" (TER08), situated on Terceira Island, the Azores Archipelago, Portugal. This small fragment of native forest, positioned at a low-medium altitude (300-400 m a.s.l.), is facing some conservation impacts as a consequence of the spread of different invasive exotic plant species, mainly Pittosporumundulatum, Rubusulmifolius and Hedychiumgardnerianum. The database we present encompasses diverse taxonomic groups, including bryophytes, vascular plants, arthropods, birds and mammals. It is derived from intensive sampling campaigns conducted in 2022, but some data from a previous vascular plant survey in 2015 were also included. The objective of this study was to provide an updated inventory of bryophytes, vascular plants, arthropods, birds and mammals within this protected area. In this way we are providing the reference conditions necessary for the monitoring of the impacts of the current ongoing restoration efforts within the project "Matela - an island of biodiversity". Whenever feasible, the present inventory is juxtaposed with historical data from previous surveys conducted in Matela.

New information

In the realm of bryophytes, our analysis revealed the presence of 75 taxa, comprising 44 mosses and 32 liverworts. Amongst these, 71 were indigenous, while three remained indeterminate and one, Campylopusintroflexus, was identified as invasive. A comparison with previous historical data revealed a decrease in species richness, which was partially counterbalanced by the discovery of 23 new recorded species in the area.Regarding vascular plants, we distinguished 54 species, comprising 28 indigenous and 26 introduced taxa. Almost 80% of the inventoried species (n = 43) were newly documented in Matela.The study of arthropods encompassed a total of 103 taxa. Within the realm of soil arthropods, we documented eight indigenous and 25 introduced taxa, witnessing the disappearance of endemic species alongside a substantial increase in introduced ones between 2002 and 2022. Canopy arthropods, totalling 36 indigenous and 18 introduced taxa, exhibited few changes when compared with data from 2002. SLAM traps captured 24 indigenous and 15 introduced arthropod taxa and no historical data are available for comparison.As for avian species, we noted 12 indigenous birds and one introduced species, confirming the presence of most of the historical recorded native species.The mammalian census revealed eight introduced species, setting new precedents for Matela, alongside the identification of one endemic species: the Azorean endemic bat Nyctalusazoreum.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

Effects of a short-term temperature increase on arthropod communities associated with pastures

The impact of climate change on islands is expected to cause dramatic consequences on native biodiversity. However, limited data are available for arthropod communities in island agroecosystems. In this study, we simulate a small-scale climatic change (average of +1.2°C), using Open Top Chambers (OTCs) in forage crops in the Azores Archipelago (Portugal) and test the responses of arthropod communities associated with intensively-managed pastures. At three sites, twenty 1 x 1 m plots were established: 10 treatment plots with OTCs and 10 control plots. Arthropods were sampled with pitfall traps on two sampling events (winter and summer of 2020). When considering all species collected, arthropods' abundance was lower in OTCs. Specific taxa, namely spiders and beetles, showed a fast response to the OTCs' presence. The assemblage of non-indigenous spiders well adapted to pastures showed a significant difference in diversity with a slightly greater richness, but lower abundance inside the warmer plots. However, the presence of OTCs resulted in a decrease in beetle richness and abundance. This decline may be attributed to the multiple effects of warming. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct further investigations to elucidate the ecological processes that underlie the observed patterns.

Seasonal Hydration Status of Common Bryophyte Species in Azorean Native Vegetation

Bryophytes play a crucial role in the ecosystem's water compartment due to their unique ability to retain water. However, their role within temperate native ecosystems is mostly unknown. To address this knowledge gap, a study was conducted on Terceira Island (Azores), focusing on 14 bryophyte species found at different altitudes (40 m, 683 m, and 1012 m); five samples were collected monthly, per species and location, and their fresh, saturated, and dry weights were examined in the laboratory; four species were collected from more than one site. Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to assert the influence of climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) and environmental variables on two water indicators: field water content (FWC) and relative water content (RWC). None of the examined factors, per se, were able to explain all cases. Species appear to respond to climate according to a limiting factor effect: at lower elevations, precipitation was determinant, while at medium elevations, FWC was influenced by a combination of precipitation and relative humidity. At higher elevations, temperature was retained for seven of the nine studied species. The RWC values indicated that the 14 bryophyte species remained hydrated throughout the year but rarely reached their maximum water-holding capacity, even at the highest altitude. Understanding the mechanisms by which native bryophytes acquire, store, and release water is crucial for comprehending the resilience of native vegetation in the face of climate change. This knowledge can also enable the development of strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change and protect vital water resources.

Climate Change May Pose Additional Threats to the Endangered Endemic Species Encalypta buxbaumioidea in China

Rare and endangered plant species (REPs) are important in biodiversity conservation, and some REPs with narrow habitats are facing serious challenges from climate change. Encalypta buxbaumioidea T. Cao, C, Gao & X, L. Bai is an endangered bryophyte species that is endemic to China. To explore the consequences of climate change on the geographic distribution of this endangered species, we used maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution of this species in China under current and three future scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) of two time periods (2050 and 2070) in China and assessed its conservation gaps. Twelve species occurrence sites and nine environmental variables were used in the modeling process. The results show that E. buxbaumioidea distribution is affected mainly by the annual mean temperature, isothermality, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and NDVI. According to species response curves, this species preferred habitats with annual mean temperature from −3 to 6 °C, precipitation of the coldest quarter from 14 to 77 mm, isothermality of more than 70%, and NDVI in the second quarter from 0.15 to 0.68. Currently, the most suitable habitat for this species is mainly distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet plateau, which is about 1.97 × 105 km2. The range would sharply reduce to 0.13–0.56% under future climate change. Nature reserves overlap with only 7.32% of the current distribution and would cover a much less portion of the area occupied by the species in the future scenarios, which means the current protected areas network is insufficient. Our results show that endangered bryophyte species are susceptible to environmental stress, especially climate change; therefore, the habitats of bryophytes should be taken into account when it comes to setting up protected areas.

The danger and indeterminacy of forfeiting perching space of bryophytes from climate shift: a case study for 115 species in China

Identifying the danger and expressing the indeterminacy of forfeiting perching space of species induced by rapid climate warming is crucial for biodiversity risk management under future changes in climate conditions. The scenarios of climate shift named the representative concentration pathways, the categorizing technique with regard to fuzzy-set, and Monte Carlo scheme was employed to survey the indeterminacy and the danger of forfeiting perching space caused by climate warming for 115 bryophytes in China. For the deterministic scenarios of climate shift, the richness of 115 bryophytes improved in several areas in north-eastern China, while it dropped in some areas in southern, eastern, south-eastern, and central China. In addition, for the deterministic scheme of altering climatic state, the count for bryophytes with the proportion of contracting the present areal range as less than 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% was belike 34-38, 19-38, 24-35, 9-19, and 4-9, separately; the count of bryophytes with the ratio of the occupying entire areal range as over 80%, 60-80%, and less than 20% was roughly 97-109, 4-14, and 2-8, separately. For the scenarios of randomly change in climate state, the number of bryophytes with a various proportion of forfeiting the present perching space dropped with enhancing the possibility; with the likelihood beyond 0.6, the count of bryophytes with forfeiting present perching space as less than 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and high than 80% of the present areal range was approximately 7-14, 2-10, 0-7, 2-9, and 13-20, separately; the number of bryophytes with the ratio of occupying the whole areal range as less than 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% was more or less 1-3, 0-3, 1-5, 1-3, and 38-44, separately. Roughly 48 bryophytes would face the risk of extinction from climate warming, including endemic and non-endemic species. Forfeiting perching space induced by climate warming would cause variations in species composition and the disappearance of some ecological functions associated with these bryophytes. The inconstancy of forfeiting areal range caused by climate warming should be incorporated into the policy-making of conservation bryophytes for adaptation of climate warming.

Amorim I, Ashby S, Gabriel R, Arroz AM. Cultural probes for environmental education: Designing learning materials to engage children and teenagers with local biodiversity

Direct contact with nature is paramount in deepening children’s and teenagers’ interest in biodiversity. Learning materials chosen to convey information and engage participants during outings in nature-rich environments are varied and can support rich learning experiences. For this purpose, learning materials can be acquired "off-the-shelf" or developed for site-specific locations or projects. However, there is little guidance on potential techniques for those wishing to generate contextually relevant materials. With the view of responding to this challenge, we propose the cultural probes technique. We demonstrate that the technique, commonly used in qualitative research to generate novel insights in conversation with participants, can instigate innovative and thoughtful approaches to materials designed for children and teenagers to explore nature. We present a toolkit that draws on the literature on cultural probes, inquiry-based learning, and the value of sensory, emotional, and aesthetic experiences in environmental education for structuring interactions with participants. To test our approach, we applied a descriptive research design and mixed-methods approach for collecting questions from youths between the ages of 10 and 18, inspired by a nature walk and a set of exploratory tasks executed through the toolkit. Specifically, we tested our toolkit along a trail in the Nature Park of Terceira, situated in the Azores, a Portuguese volcanic archipelago in the North Atlantic. Here, we present and reflect on the data collected during one visit organized over two days with two groups of participants and one post-trail activity directed at both groups. Results demonstrate that the open-ended and playful nature of cultural probes offers a novel way to engage youths with nature-rich environments through questioning. This contribution further highlights the potential of cultural probes for instigating encounters that tap into the value of sensory, emotional, and aesthetic experience in nature, with positive outcomes for participants.

Scientists' warning - The outstanding biodiversity of islands is in peril

Despite islands contributing only 6.7% of land surface area, they harbor ~20% of the Earth’s biodiversity, but unfortunately also ~50% of the threatened species and 75% of the known extinctions since the European expansion around the globe. Due to their geological and geographic history and characteristics, islands act simultaneously as cradles of evolutionary diversity and museums of formerly widespread lineages—elements that permit islands to achieve an outstanding endemicity. Nevertheless, the majority of these endemic species are inherently vulnerable due to genetic and demographic factors linked with the way islands are colonized. Here, we stress the great variation of islands in their physical geography (area, isolation, altitude, latitude) and history (age, human colonization, human density). We provide examples of some of the most species rich and iconic insular radiations. Next, we analyze the natural vulnerability of the insular biota, linked to genetic and demographic factors as a result of founder events as well as the typically small population sizes of many island species. We note that, whereas evolution toward island syndromes (including size shifts, derived insular woodiness, altered dispersal ability, loss of defense traits, reduction in clutch size) might have improved the ability of species to thrive under natural conditions on islands, it has simultaneously made island biota disproportionately vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures such as habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive species, and climate change. This has led to the documented extinction of at least 800 insular species in the past 500 years, in addition to the many that had already gone extinct following the arrival of first human colonists on islands in prehistoric times. Finally, we summarize current scientific knowledge on the ongoing biodiversity loss on islands worldwide and express our serious concern that the current trajectory will continue to decimate the unique and irreplaceable natural heritage of the world’s islands. We conclude that drastic actions are urgently needed to bend the curve of the alarming rates of island biodiversity loss.

Macaronesia as a Fruitful Arena for Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology

Research in Macaronesia has led to substantial advances in ecology, evolution and conservation biology. We review the scientific developments achieved in this region, and outline promising research avenues enhancing conservation. Some of these discoveries indicate that the Macaronesian flora and fauna are composed of rather young lineages, not Tertiary relicts, predominantly of European origin. Macaronesia also seems to be an important source region for back-colonisation of continental fringe regions on both sides of the Atlantic. This group of archipelagos (Azores, Madeira, Selvagens, Canary Islands, and Cabo Verde) has been crucial to learn about the particularities of macroecological patterns and interaction networks on islands, providing evidence for the development of the General Dynamic Model of oceanic island biogeography and subsequent updates. However, in addition to exceptionally high richness of endemic species, Macaronesia is also home to a growing number of threatened species, along with invasive alien plants and animals. Several innovative conservation and management actions are in place to protect its biodiversity from these and other drivers of global change. The Macaronesian Islands are a well-suited field of study for island ecology and evolution research, mostly due to its special geological layout with 40 islands grouped within five archipelagos differing in geological age, climate and isolation. A large amount of data is now available for several groups of organisms on and around many of these islands. However, continued efforts should be made toward compiling new information on their biodiversity, to pursue various fruitful research avenues and develop appropriate conservation management tools.

The Role of Climate and Topography in Shaping the Diversity of Plant Communities in Cabo Verde Islands

The flora and vegetation of the archipelago of Cabo Verde is dominated by Macaronesian, Mediterranean, and particularly by African tropical elements, resulting from its southernmost location, when compared to the other islands of the Macaronesia (i.e., Azores, Madeira, Selvagens, and Canary Islands). Very likely, such a geographical position entailed higher susceptibility to extreme climatic fluctuations, namely those associated with the West African Monsoon oscillations. These fluctuations led to a continuous aridification, which is a clear trend shown by most recent studies based on continental shelf cores. Promoting important environmental shifts, such climatic fluctuations are accepted as determinant to explain the current spatial distribution patterns of taxa, as well as the composition of the plant communities. In this paper, we present a comprehensive characterization of the main plant communities in Cabo Verde, and we discuss the role of the climatic and topoclimatic diversity in shaping the vegetation composition and distribution of this archipelago. Our study reveals a strong variation in the diversity of plant communities across elevation gradients and distinct patterns of richness among plant communities. Moreover, we present an overview of the biogeographical relationships of the Cabo Verde flora and vegetation with the other Macaronesian Islands and northwestern Africa. We discuss how the distribution of plant communities and genetic patterns found among most of the endemic lineages can be related to Africa’s ongoing aridification, exploring the impacts of a process that marks northern Africa from the Late Miocene until the present.

Species conservation profile of moths (Insecta, Lepidoptera) from Azores, Portugal

Background

The few remnants of Azorean native forests harbour a unique set of endemic moths (Insecta, Lepidoptera), some of them under severe long term threats due to small sized habitats or climatic changes. In this contribution, we present the IUCN Red List profiles of 34 endemic moths to the Azorean archipelago, including species belonging to two diverse families: Noctuidae (11 species) and Crambidae (eight species). The objective of this paper is to assess all endemic Azorean moth species and advise on possible future research and conservation actions critical for the long-trem survival of the most endangered species.

New information

Most species have a large distribution (i.e. 58% occur in at least four islands), very large extent of occurrence (EOO) and a relatively large area of occupancy (AOO). Only nine species are single-island endemics, three of them from Flores, three from São Miguel and one from Pico, São Jorge and Faial. Most of the species also experience continuing decline in habitat quality, number of locations and subpopulations caused by the ongoing threat from pasture intensification, forestry, invasive plant species and future climatic changes. The lack of new records may indicate that one of the species previously named is extinct (Eupitheciaogilviata). Therefore, we suggest as future conservation actions: (1) a long-term species monitoring plan and (2) control of invasive species.

Species conservation profiles of endemic spiders (Araneae) from Madeira and Selvagens archipelagos, Portugal

Background

The North Atlantic archipelagos of Madeira and Selvagens present a unique biological diversity including, presently, 56 endemic spider species. Several recent projects provide valuable information on their distribution across most islands and habitats. To date, the only endemic spider assessed according to the IUCN Red List criteria is Hognaingens. The objective of this paper is to assess all remaining endemic species and advise on possible future conservation actions critical for the survival of endangered species.

New information

Seven species were found to have a continuing decline in either range or population size. Their decline can be mostly attributed to habitat destruction or degradation, invasive plant species that reduce quality of habitat, forest fires at high mountain regions and possible competition for resources from invasive congeners. The tetragnathid M.barreti is considered as possibly extinct due to the suspected impact of a competing species. Although most endemic spiders from the Madeira and Selvagens archipelagos have relatively low extinction risk due to the good condition and protection of the laurisilva forests where many live, there are a number of species requiring urgent attention and protection measures. These include all cave and mountain-restricted species as well as those threatened by competing congeners or invasive plants. Extending current protected areas, restoring original habitats of threatened species and the control of invasive taxa should remain a priority for species survival.

Plant invasion and speciation along elevational gradients on the oceanic island La Palma, Canary Islands

Ecosystems that provide environmental opportunities but are poor in species and functional richness generally support speciation as well as invasion processes. These processes are expected not to be equally effective along elevational gradients due to specific ecological, spatial, and anthropogenic filters, thus controlling the dispersal and establishment of species. Here, we investigate speciation and invasion processes along elevational gradients. We assess the vascular plant species richness as well as the number and percentage of endemic species and non-native species systematically along three elevational gradients covering large parts of the climatic range of La Palma, Canary Islands. Species richness was negatively correlated with elevation, while the percentage of Canary endemic species showed a positive relationship. However, the percentage of Canary-Madeira endemics did not show a relationship with elevation. Non-native species richness (indicating invasion) peaked at 500 m elevation and showed a consistent decline until about 1,200 m elevation. Above that limit, no non-native species were present in the studied elevational gradients. Ecological, anthropogenic, and spatial filters control richness, diversification, and invasion with elevation. With increase in elevation, richness decreases due to species-area relationships. Ecological limitations of native ruderal species related to anthropogenic pressure are in line with the absence of non-native species from high elevations indicating directional ecological filtering. Increase in ecological isolation with elevation drives diversification and thus increased percentages of Canary endemics. The best preserved eastern transect, including mature laurel forests, is an exception. The high percentage of Canary-Madeira endemics indicates the cloud forest's environmental uniqueness-and thus ecological isolation-beyond the Macaronesian islands.