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Lucas TCD, Davis EL, Ayabina D, Borlase A, Crellen T, Pi L, Medley GF, Yardley L, Klepac P, Gog J, Déirdre Hollingsworth T. Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021; 376:20200270. [PMID: 34053257 PMCID: PMC8165588 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim C. D. Lucas
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Emma L. Davis
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Diepreye Ayabina
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Anna Borlase
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Thomas Crellen
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Li Pi
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Graham F. Medley
- MathSys CDT, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease and Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Lucy Yardley
- School of Psychology, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- School of Psychological Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Petra Klepac
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department for Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Julia Gog
- Department for Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Ali F, Dogan S, Amin M, Hussain K, Ryu K. Brand anthropomorphism, love and defense: does attitude towards social distancing matter? SERVICE INDUSTRIES JOURNAL 2021. [DOI: 10.1080/02642069.2020.1867542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Faizan Ali
- Muma College of Business, University of South Florida, Sarasota, FL, USA
| | - Seden Dogan
- Faculty of Tourism, Ondokuz Mayis University, Samsun, Turkey
| | - Muslim Amin
- School of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Business and Law, Taylors University, Malaysia
| | - Kashif Hussain
- Faculty of Social Sciences & Leisure Management, Taylors University, Malaysia
| | - Kisang Ryu
- College of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Sejong University, South Korea
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Rothstein MA. Currents in contemporary ethics. Should health care providers get treatment priority in an influenza pandemic? THE JOURNAL OF LAW, MEDICINE & ETHICS : A JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF LAW, MEDICINE & ETHICS 2010; 38:412-9. [PMID: 20579237 PMCID: PMC3033763 DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-720x.2010.00499.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
The 2009 pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) was relatively mild, but a subsequent outbreak of pandemic influenza could be much worse. According to projections from the Department of Health and Human Services, the potential health consequences of a severe (1918-like) influenza pandemic in the United States could be literally overwhelming: up to 1.9 million deaths; 90 million people sick; 45 million people needing outpatient care; 9.9 million people hospitalized, of whom 1.485 million would need treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU); and 742,500 patients needing mechanical ventilators. Even a less cataclysmic, moderate pandemic (like 1958 or 1968) would result in 209,000 deaths; 90 million people sick; 45 million people needing outpatient care; 865,000 people hospitalized, of whom 128,750 would need treatment in an ICU; and 64,875 patients needing mechanical ventilators.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark A Rothstein
- Institute for Bioethics, Health Policy and Law, University of Louisville School of Medicine, Kentucky, USA.
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Baum NM, Jacobson PD, Goold SD. "Listen to the people": public deliberation about social distancing measures in a pandemic. THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF BIOETHICS : AJOB 2009; 9:4-14. [PMID: 19882444 DOI: 10.1080/15265160903197531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Public engagement in ethically laden pandemic planning decisions may be important for transparency, creating public trust, improving compliance with public health orders, and ultimately, contributing to just outcomes. We conducted focus groups with members of the public to characterize public perceptions about social distancing measures likely to be implemented during a pandemic. Participants expressed concerns about job security and economic strain on families if businesses or school closures are prolonged. They shared opposition to closure of religious organizations, citing the need for shared support and worship during times of crises. Group discussions elicited evidence of community-mindedness (e.g., recognition of an extant duty not to infect others), while some also acknowledged strong self-interest. Participants conveyed desire for opportunities for public input and education, and articulated distrust of government. Social distancing measures may be challenging to implement and sustain due to strains on family resources and lack of trust in government.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nancy M Baum
- University of Michigan School of Public Health., Health Management and Policy, 109 Observatory, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
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Sturtevant JL, Anema A, Brownstein JS. The new International Health Regulations: considerations for global public health surveillance. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2008; 1:117-21. [PMID: 18388639 DOI: 10.1097/dmp.0b013e318159cbae] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Global public health surveillance is critical for the identification and prevention of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. The World Health Organization recently released revised International Health Regulations (IHR) that serve as global legislation and provide guidelines for surveillance systems. The IHR aim to identify and prevent spread of these infectious diseases; however, there are some practical challenges that limit the usability of these regulations. IHR requires Member States to build necessary infrastructure for global surveillance, which may not be possible in underdeveloped countries. A large degree of freedom is given to each individual government and therefore different levels of reporting are common, with substantial emphasis on passive reporting. The IHR need to be enforceable and enforced without impinging on government autonomy or human rights. Unstable governments and developing countries require increased assistance in setting up and maintaining surveillance systems. This article addresses some challenges and potential solutions to the ability of national governments to adhere to the global health surveillance requirements detailed in the IHR. The authors review some practical challenges such as inadequate surveillance and reporting infrastructure, and legal enforcement and maintenance of individual human rights.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica L Sturtevant
- Harvard School of Public Health and the Children's Hospital Informatics Program (CHIP) at the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology, MA, USA
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