Natural course of progression of liver fibrosis in Japanese patients with chronic liver disease type C--a study of 527 patients at one establishment

Involvement of proliferation of atypical hepatocytes and CDT 1 in the liver cancer of rats administered the diethylnitrosamine

We have reported that extent of proliferation of atypical hepatocytes (POAH) in non-cancerous liver in hepatocellular carcinoma and chromatin licensing and DNA replication factor 1 (CDT1) are associated with postoperative recurrence. Here, we investigated whether extent of POAH and expression of CDT1 in liver are also associated with chemically induced liver cancer in rats. Male Fisher strain rats were orally administered diethylnitrosamine (DEN) in their drinking water and sacrificed at 6, 8, 12, or 14 weeks after start of DEN administration. We serially monitored changes in extent of POAH, CDT1 expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC), and CDT1 mRNA expression in liver by real-time quantitative PCR. The extent of POAH in liver progressed in a time-dependent manner after start of DEN administration. CDT1 expression was higher at 8 weeks than at 6 weeks by IHC, suggesting that CDT1 expression may be a marker of POAH severity. CDT1 mRNA expression in liver was significantly higher at 12 weeks than at 6 weeks (p<0.0001). We found that extent of POAH and the expression of CDT1 are also important factors in the development of chemical carcinogen-induced hepatocarcinogenesis. Furthermore, the association with POAH and CDT1 expression in carcinogenic process is important regardless of the cause of hepatocarcinogenesis.

The proliferation of atypical hepatocytes and CDT1 expression in noncancerous tissue are associated with the postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

Recently, we reported that extent of proliferation of atypical hepatocytes (atypical hepatocytes) was most important histological risk factor for development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from chronic hepatitis C or liver cirrhosis. Here, we aimed to clarify whether the atypical hepatocytes in noncancerous sections is also involved in postoperative recurrence. Furthermore, we investigated significant genes involved in the atypical hepatocytes. Association between the extent of atypical hepatocytes in noncancerous tissue and postoperative recurrence was validated in 356 patients with HCC. Next, we identified putative signature genes involved in extent of atypical hepatocytes. First, atypical hepatocytes or hepatocytes other than the atypical hepatocyte in noncancerous sections of 4 HCC patients were selectively collected by laser capture microdissection (LCM). Second, the gene expression profiles of the selected hepatocyte populations were compared using Ion AmpliSeq Transcriptome Human Gene Expression Kit (Thermo Fisher SCIENTIFIC, Waltham, MA, USA) analysis. Finally, we validated the mRNA expression of the extracted genes in noncancerous frozen liver tissue from 62 patients with HCC by RT-qPCR to identify the signature genes involved in both the extent of atypical hepatocytes and postoperative recurrence. Furthermore, the extent of atypical hepatocytes and CDT1 expression in noncancerous sections from 8 patients with HCC were also validated by selectively collecting samples using LCM. The extent of atypical hepatocytes was associated with postoperative recurrence. Of the genes that showed significant differences in expression levels between two populations, the expression of the chromatin licensing and DNA replication factor 1 (CDT1) gene was most strongly associated with the extent of atypical hepatocytes and was also associated with postoperative recurrence. Furthermore, CDT1-positive cells that exhibited stronger expression resembled those morphologically considered to be atypical hepatocytes. CDT1 and Ki-67 were colocalized in the nuclei of both hepatocytes and cancer cells. The hepatocytes in noncancerous livers were not uniform in each hepatocyte population, suggesting that the accumulation of genetic abnormalities was variable. We found that the strong degree of atypical hepatocytes and high CDT1 mRNA expression represent a high carcinogenic state of the liver. Thus, we consider the evaluation of degree of these could support the personalized medicine.

Emergence of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2c Infection Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Men Who Have Sex With Men in Tokyo, Japan

ABSTRACT

We report on hepatitis C virus genotype 2c infection in 12 human immunodeficiency virus-infected men who have sex with men in Tokyo, Japan. The uncommon strains from the 12 patients were genetically clustered; they suggested an emerging outbreak in this population at high risk of sexually transmitted infections.

Comparison of liver disease state progression in patients with eradication of versus persistent infection with hepatitis C virus: Markov chain analysis

To investigate the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication after antiviral therapy versus those with persistent HCV infection. Four hundred and eighty patients (5259 person-years [PYs]) who received interferon-based therapy and achieved sustained virologic response and 848 patients (3853 PYs) with persistent HCV infection were included. In the analysis of 1-year liver disease state transition probability matrices using Markov chain models, progression to cirrhosis from the chronic hepatitis state was observed (0.00%-0.63%) in patients with HCV eradication. Among patients with chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis and HCV eradication, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development was observed in males aged ≥ 50 years (0.97%-1.96%) and females aged ≥ 60 years (0.26%-5.00%). Additionally, in patients with cirrhosis and HCV eradication, improvement to chronic hepatitis was also observed (4.94%-10.64%). Conversely, in patients with chronic hepatitis and persistent HCV infection, progression to cirrhosis was observed in males aged ≥ 30 years and female aged ≥ 40 years (0.44%-1.99%). In males aged ≥ 40 years and female aged ≥ 50 years with cirrhosis, the transition probability for HCC was relatively high (4.17%-14.02%). Under the assumption of either chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis at age 40 or 60 years as the starting condition for simulation over the next 30 or 40 years, respectively, the probability of HCC was higher in patients with persistent HCV infection than those with HCV eradication. In conclusion, HCV eradication can reduce the risk of developing cirrhosis or HCC in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with eradicated chronic hepatitis C virus: An analysis using a Markov chain model

AIM

The long-term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have received antiviral therapy and who demonstrate HCV eradication remains incompletely characterized. In this study, we investigated the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with eradication of HCV.

METHODS

A total of 552 patients with chronic HCV infection (6815 person-years) who were treated with interferon-based therapy and who achieved sustained virologic response were included. Yearly transition probabilities for each liver state (chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) were calculated using a Markov chain model.

RESULTS

In the analysis of 1-year liver disease state transition probabilities, progression to cirrhosis occurred in 0.5-2.1% of male patients with chronic hepatitis across all age groups. In male patients with cirrhosis, HCC developed in 0.6-1.9% of patients over the age of 50 years. In female patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis occurred in 0.4-2.1% of patients across all age groups. In addition, in female patients with cirrhosis, HCC developed in those aged 60-69 (0.4%) and 70-79 (0.4%) years. Under the assumption of either a chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis state at age 40 or 60 years as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 or 20 years, respectively, the probability of HCC gradually increased with age and was higher in male patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The development or progression of cirrhosis and the development of HCC are risks in HCV patients despite HCV eradication, not only in those with cirrhosis but also in those with chronic hepatitis.

Noninvasive Assessment of Liver Fibrosis: Current and Future Clinical and Molecular Perspectives

Liver fibrosis is one of the risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. The staging of liver fibrosis can be evaluated only via a liver biopsy, which is an invasive procedure. Noninvasive methods for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis can be divided into morphological tests such as elastography and serum biochemical tests. Transient elastography is reported to have excellent performance in the diagnosis of liver fibrosis and has been accepted as a useful tool for the prediction of HCC development and other clinical outcomes. Two-dimensional shear wave elastography is a new technique and provides a real-time stiffness image. Serum fibrosis markers have been studied based on the mechanism of fibrogenesis and fibrolysis. In the healthy liver, homeostasis of the extracellular matrix is maintained directly by enzymes called matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their specific inhibitors, tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs). MMPs and TIMPs could be useful serum biomarkers for liver fibrosis and promising candidates for the treatment of liver fibrosis. Further studies are required to establish liver fibrosis-specific markers based on further clinical and molecular research. In this review, we summarize noninvasive fibrosis tests and molecular mechanism of liver fibrosis in current daily clinical practice.

Fibrosis-4, aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio for risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients: comparison with liver biopsy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is well known that hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) develops as a consequence of hepatic fibrosis progression. Thus, early identification of advanced liver fibrosis is very important. This study evaluated the prognostic value of FIB-4, the aspartate transaminase to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and the gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-toplatelet ratio (GPR) for predicting HCC development using histological fibrosis stage as a reference in Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.

METHODS

A total of 444 CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy and serological tests for determining noninvasive serum fibrosis markers were enrolled. All patients were followed to monitor HCC development.

RESULTS

The histological fibrosis stage showed best performance in predicting HCC development at 5 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.783) and 7 years (AUROC = 0.766), followed by FIB-4 (AUROC = 0.753 at 5 years, 0.698 at 7 years), APRI (AUROC = 0.658 at 5 years, 0.572 at 7 years), and GPR (AUROC = 0.638 at 5 years, 0.603 at 7 years). When we classified risk groups according to the histological fibrosis stage (F4 vs. F0-3) and FIB-4 (FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 vs. FIB-4 < 3.25), patients in the high-risk group were found to have a significantly higher probability of developing HCC than those in the low-risk group (P=0.005 and 0.022, respectively, log-rank test).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that FIB-4 is useful for the noninvasive prediction of HCC development, while APRI and GPR were less useful.

Platelet indices significantly correlate with liver fibrosis in HCV-infected patients

AIM

A total of 241 patients with chronic HCV infection were recruited to investigate the association between liver fibrosis and PLT counts, as well as with MPV, PDW and P-LCR indices.

METHODS

The determination of PLT indices was carried out using a Sysmex XT-1800i automated hematology analyzer. Serological tests for HA, LN, C-IV and PIIINP were performed in 210 patients. The liver stiffness was measured in 69 patients by transient elastography (FibroScan).

RESULTS

The analysis showed that the four serum fibrosis markers were negatively correlated with PLT counts, but positively correlated with the MPV, PDW and P-LCR values. Moreover, a similar pattern was found after analyzing the FibroScan measurements, which were negatively correlated with PLT counts, but positively correlated with MPV, PDW and P-LCR values. We subdivided the HCV-infected patients into mild and advanced fibrosis groups. The PLT counts were significantly decreased and the MPV, PDW and P-LCR values were significantly increased in the advanced fibrosis group when compared with the mild fibrosis group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that not only the PLT counts but also the MPV, PDW and P-LCR indices significantly correlate with liver fibrosis in HCV-infected patients. Therefore, these indices may be useful laboratory measures for evaluating liver fibrosis progression.

Full-Genome Analysis of Hepatitis C Virus in Japanese and Non-Japanese Patients Coinfected With HIV-1 in Tokyo

BACKGROUND

Acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is increasing among HIV-1-infected individuals in Tokyo. Appropriate clinical management is needed.

SETTING

To delineate the epidemiological status of HCV transmission, we analyzed stocked plasma samples of HCV/HIV-1-coinfected patients seen at the largest referral center for HIV care in Tokyo.

METHODS

HCV full-genome sequences were amplified and determined using next-generation sequencing. HCV genotyping and phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses of thus obtained sequences were performed and combined with the analysis of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase sequences.

RESULTS

HCV phylogenetic analysis identified 3 dense clusters containing cases of men who have sex with men (MSM) and injection drug users (IDUs). Most of the confirmed acute infection cases were included within these clusters, indicating that the clustered viruses are currently being actively transmitted among HIV-1-infected MSM and IDU. Phylodynamic analysis indicated population expansion of one of these clusters from 2006 to 2008, during which the largest number of HIV-1-infected MSM was diagnosed in Tokyo. HIV-1 reverse transcriptase sequences of HCV-coinfected patients included in the same clusters did not converge together and did not form clusters, but rather diverged in the area of subtype B in the phylogenetic tree, indicating that they acquired HCV infection from individuals different from those from whom they had acquired HIV-1 infection. It is considered that these MSM changed their sexual partners and that IDU changed their drug use groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The results warrant careful monitoring of high-risk groups including MSM and IDU and early introduction of HCV treatment to prevent HCV epidemic.

Natural history of liver-related disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection: An analysis using a Markov chain model

BACKGROUND

Long-term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) remains incompletely characterized. We investigated the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with chronic HCV infection who have not received antiviral therapy.

METHODS

A total of 2304 patients with chronic HCV who were not received interferon-based therapy were included.

RESULTS

In the assessment of 1-year disease state of liver transition probabilities, progression to chronic hepatitis occurred in 12% to 14% of patients across all age groups in male asymptomatic carriers. In male patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis was observed mostly in the 60 to 69 (7.6%) and ≥70 age groups (9.6%). In addition, in male patients with cirrhosis, HCC development occurred in approximately 5% of patients over the age of 40. In female asymptomatic carriers, progression to chronic hepatitis was observed in 6% to 14% of patients across all age groups. In female patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis was observed mostly in the 60 to 69 (8.7%) and ≥70 (7.4%) age groups. In addition, in female patients with cirrhosis, HCC development occurred in 0.9% to 3.3% of patients over the age of 50. Under assumptions of either chronic hepatitis or asymptomatic carrier state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the following 40 years, the probability of HCC gradually increased with age and was higher in male patients.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a risk of cirrhosis or HCC development in HCV patients with not only chronic hepatitis but the asymptomatic carrier state as well.

The comprehensive outcomes of hepatitis C virus infection: A multi-faceted chronic disease

Treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been revolutionized with the introduction of pangenotypic, interferon- and ribavirin-free regimens associated with high cure rates and a low side effect profile. Additionally, there is evidence that HCV cure reduces HCV complications, improves patient-reported outcomes and is cost-saving in most western countries in the long term. This is a review of the comprehensive burden of HCV and the value of eliminating HCV infection. With the introduction of the interferon-free all-oral, once a day pill treatment regimen for the cure of HCV, the potential to eliminate HCV by 2030 has become a possibility for some regions of the world. Nevertheless, there are barriers to screening, linkage to care, and treatment in many countries that must be overcome in order to reach this goal. In conclusion, globally, work must continue to ensure national policies are in place to support screening, linkage to care and affordable treatment in order to eliminate HCV.

Epidemiologic features of 348 children with hepatitis C virus infection over a 30-year period: a nationwide survey in Japan

BACKGROUND

Although the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among children may be rapidly changing, few reports have characterized large nationwide cohorts of children with HCV infection. We, therefore, sought to clarify the epidemiology and natural history of HCV infection in Japanese children born over the last three decades.

METHODS

Sixty-five pediatric centers retrospectively and prospectively recruited consecutive, otherwise-healthy HCV-infected children born during 1986 to 2015.

RESULTS

Entry criteria were met by 348 children. Age at initial diagnosis of infection has decreased significantly in recent years. Cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were not identified. Prevalence of spontaneous clearance and of interferon treatment with/without ribavirin were 9 and 54%, respectively. Maternal transmission has increased significantly, representing over 99% of cases in the last decade. No transfusion-related cases have been seen after 1994. HCV genotype 2 has increased to become the most prevalent in Japanese children. Histopathology examination of liver specimens showed no or mild fibrosis in most children with chronic hepatitis C; none showed cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This largest nationwide cohort study of Asian children with HCV infection spanned the last three decades. None of these Japanese children developed cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. Maternal transmission increased to account for 99% of cases during the last decade. Genotype 2 now is most prevalent in these children. Histopathologically, most children with chronic hepatitis C showed mild fibrosis or none.

Prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure using transient elastography in patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

It is essential to accurately predict Postoperative liver failure (PHLF) which is a life-threatening complication. Liver hardness measurement (LSM) is widely used in non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis. The aims of this study were to explore the application of preoperative liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by transient elastography in predicting postoperative liver failure (PHLF) in patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma.

Methods

The study included 247 consecutive patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent hepatectomy between May 2015 and September 2015. Detailed preoperative examinations including LSM were performed before hepatectomy. The endpoint was the development of PHLF.

Results

All of the patients had chronic hepatitis B defined as the presence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) for more than 6 months and 76 (30.8%) had cirrhosis. PHLF occurred in 37 (14.98%) patients. Preoperative LSM (odds ratio, OR, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 1.13–1.29; P < 0.001) and international normalized ratio (INR) (OR, 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01–1.12; P < 0.05) were revealed to be independent risk factors for PHLF, and a new model was defined as LSM-INR index (LSM-INR index = 0.191*LSM + 6.317*INR-11.154). The optimal cutoff values of LSM and LSM-INR index for predicting PHLF were 14 kPa (AUC 0.86, 95% CI: 0.811–0.901, P < 0.001) and −1.92 (AUC 0.87, 95% CI: 0.822–0.909, P < 0.001), respectively.

Conclusions

LSM can be helpful for surgeons to make therapeutic decisions in patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma.

Cost-Outcome Description of PEG-IFN-α2b+RBV for Hepatitis C: Results Based on the Interferon Database

Economic evaluation of drugs is used in decision-making on medical care and public policy. Recently, real-world data (RWD) have been used in the analysis. In this study, we discuss the risk and benefits of using RWD for economic evaluation. We conducted a cost-outcome description with RWD from a nationwide registry providing information on hepatitis treatment in Japan and estimated the utility of the analysis. We evaluated the cost-outcome description of peginterferon plus ribavirin (PEG-IFN-α2b+RBV) treatment in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. Simulations were based on a Markov model. The cohorts were set using data from the registry and we assumed a societal perspective for the calculation of costs. The dose and drug cost were chosen based on the Japanese Guidelines for the Management of Hepatitis C Virus Infection or package inserts. Model details and parameters were as described in previous studies. The simulations were performed for a period of 10 years with no discount rate. We estimated 2.5 million JPY per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) in 48-week PEG-IFN-α2b+RBV treatment for a period of 10 years. The results of this study are in agreement with previous HCV treatment economic evaluation studies in Japan. We analyzed the statistics of the HCV-infected patients at each disease stage using the data in our registry and calculated the costs. The results of this study more closely reflect a real-world clinical situation compared to the widely used randomized clinical trial method, which estimates clinical trial results and scenarios.

Prediction of Fibrosis Progression Rate in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Genotype 4: Role of Cirrhosis Risk Score and Host Factors

The rate of liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients is highly variable and affected by different factors. This study aimed to assess the role of cirrhosis risk score (CRS) based on 7 genetic variants (7 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) and host factors (age and sex) in the prediction of the rate of fibrosis progression in CHC. Duration of infection was determined in 115 patients. The fibrosis progression rate (FPR) per year was calculated as the ratio between fibrosis stage and the duration of infection. SNP genotyping were performed and CRS was determined based on it. FPR was significantly elevated in patients who acquired infection at age >40 years versus those who acquired infection at 30-40 years and those who acquired infection at <30 years. Median FPR was significantly higher in males than females (0.17 vs. 0.15) with P = 0.001. CRS value ≥0.8 is predictive of patients with high risk for cirrhosis, and CRS value <0.5 is predictive of patients with low risk for cirrhosis. There was significant positive correlation between CRS and FPR (P ≤ 0.001). CRS based on 7 SNPs at cutoff value ≥0.8, age at infection >40 years, and male sex are predictors of higher FPR.

Serum Wisteria Floribunda Agglutinin-Positive Mac-2 Binding Protein Could Not Always Predict Early Cirrhosis in Non-Viral Liver Diseases

Background: Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2-binding protein (WFA(+)-M2BP) is a novel non-invasive marker of liver fibrosis. The goal of the study was to investigate whether the novel serum biomarker WFA(+)-M2BP or other non-invasive markers are useful for the prediction of liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), and primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Methods: We examined a significant correlation between serum WFA(+)-M2BP levels and histological staging of fibrosis in several chronic liver diseases, such as NASH, AIH, and PBC. Results: WFA(+)-M2BP could not predict hepatic fibrosis in these patients. We also showed that the level of platelet counts is a useful predictor of hepatic fibrosis progression in patients with NASH, AIH, and PBC. There was a significant correlation between staging of fibrosis and grading of activity in the liver in all groups except for AIH patients. Conclusion: Platelet counts can predict hepatic fibrosis in patients with NASH, AIH, or PBC. Clinicians should pay attention to the grading of liver activity in the use of WFA(+)-M2BP.

Daclatasvir and asunaprevir treatment improves liver function parameters and reduces liver fibrosis markers in chronic hepatitis C patients

AIM

Although interferon (IFN)-free antiviral therapy is expected to improve the treatment response for chronic hepatitis C, the effect on liver function and liver fibrosis is unknown. In this study, we analyzed the long-term follow up of liver function parameters and liver fibrosis markers in genotype 1b hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients treated with daclatasvir and asunaprevir.

METHODS

Thirty patients were treated with daclatasvir and asunaprevir for 24 weeks, and 26 patients achieved sustained virological response (SVR). We measured liver function parameters, serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and albumin levels and liver fibrosis markers, hyaluronic acid, type IV collagen and Mac-2-binding protein (M2BPGi) before and after (median, 27 months; range, 17-47) completion of the treatment in SVR and non-SVR patients. We also measured serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels during the therapy and follow-up period.

RESULTS

Pretreatment serum ALT and albumin levels and liver fibrosis markers were similar between SVR and non-SVR patients. Twenty-seven months after treatment, serum ALT and albumin levels significantly improved only in SVR patients. Although there was no change in non-SVR patients, platelet count and serum liver fibrosis markers significantly improved in SVR patients. Serum AFP levels rapidly decreased during the treatment in both SVR and non-SVR patients, but the change was significant only in SVR patients.

CONCLUSION

Successful viral eradication by IFN-free daclatasvir and asunaprevir therapy could lead to improved liver function parameters and reduced liver fibrosis markers and AFP levels. This treatment has the potential to improve liver fibrosis and decrease the incidence of hepatocarcinogenesis.

Long-term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C who did not receive interferon-based therapy: causes of death and analysis based on the FIB-4 index

BACKGROUND

Interferon (IFN)-based therapy has been reported to reduce the liver-related mortality rate in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, predictors of survival and causes of death, including non-liver-related causes, have not been sufficiently investigated in chronic HCV patients who have not received IFN-based therapy.

METHODS

A total of 1723 patients with chronic HCV infection who were not treated with IFN-based therapy were enrolled. Survival from liver-related diseases and non-liver-related diseases and causes of death were analyzed on the basis of the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, an index of liver fibrosis.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 10.3 years. Of 465 patients who died during the follow-up period, 48.4 % died of liver-related diseases; of the remainder, 51.6 % died of non-liver-related diseases. On the basis of FIB-4 index, the liver-related mortality rate increased as the FIB-4 index increased: 16.1 % in the FIB-4 index < 1.45 group, 36.7 % in the 1.45 ≤ FIB-4 index ≤ 3.25 group, and 58.7 % in the FIB-4 index > 3.25 group (p < 0.001). Conversely, the non-liver-related mortality rate decreased as the FIB-4 index increased: 83.9, 63.3, and 41.3 %, respectively (p = 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, a FIB-4 index greater than 3.25 was identified as a risk factor independently associated with both liver-related death (hazard ratio 13.020; 95 % confidence interval 4.155-40.770) and non-liver-related death (hazard ratio 1.667; 95 % confidence interval 1.188-2.340).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with chronic HCV infection and an elevated FIB-4 index may benefit from monitoring not only for the development of liver-related diseases but also for the development of non-liver-related diseases.

Utility of the FIB-4 Index for hepatocarcinogenesis in hepatitis C virus carriers with normal alanine aminotransferase levels

The FIB-4 index is a simple formula using age, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and platelet count to evaluate liver fibrosis. We investigated the ability of the FIB-4 index for hepatocarcinogenesis in hepatitis C virus (HCV) carriers with normal ALT levels. A total of 516 patients with ALT levels persistently at or below 40 IU/L during an observation period of over 3 years were included. Factors associated with the development of HCC were determined. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developed in 60 of 516 patients (11.6%). The incidence rate of HCC at 5 and 10 years was 2.6% and 17.6%, respectively. When patients were categorized according to the FIB-4 index as ≤ 2.0 (n = 226), >2.0 and ≤ 4.0 (n = 169), and > 4.0 (n = 121), the cumulative incidence of HCC at 5 years was 0.5%, 1.3% and 8.0%, respectively, and 2.8%, 25.6% and 37.1% at 10 years, respectively. Patients with FIB-4 index >4.0 were at the highest risk (P < 0.001). Factors that were significantly associated with HCC in the multivariate analysis were FIB-4 index >2.0 (hazard ratio (HR), 7.690), FIB-4 index >4.0 (HR, 8.991), α-fetoprotein (AFP) >5 ng/mL (HR, 2.742), AFP >10 ng/mL (HR, 4.915) and total bilirubin >1.2 mg/dL (HR, 2.142). A scoring system for hepatocarcinogenesis that combines the FIB-4 index and AFP predicted patient outcomes with excellent discriminative ability. The FIB-4 index is strongly associated with the risk of HCC in HCV carriers with normal ALT levels.

Long-term follow-up of chronic hepatitis C patients treated with interferon-alpha: risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in a single center over 10 years

OBJECTIVES

Interferon (IFN)-based therapy for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is cost-effective and is associated with reduced risk of disease progression. We aimed to assess the incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to identify risk factors associated with disease progression.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 280 CHC patients who were registered at our hospital between 2001 and 2010.

RESULTS

About 80% of patients received antiviral treatment. The 10-year cumulative incidence of cirrhosis was significantly lower among patients who received antiviral therapy than among those who did not (8.3 vs. 44.0%; p = 0.001). Among them, patients with sustained virological response (SVR) had a significantly lower incidence of cirrhosis than those without SVR (0.6 vs. 33.9%; p < 0.001). Cox proportional hazards regression showed that SVR was the significant independent factor for reducing the risk of cirrhosis (hazard ratio, HR = 0.03; p = 0.034). The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was higher among patients who did not receive antiviral therapy than among those who did (43.9 vs. 6.1%; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that underlying cirrhosis was the only independent risk factor associated with HCC development (HR = 7.70; p = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

SVR secondary to IFN-based therapy could reduce cirrhosis development in CHC patients. Underlying cirrhosis was the strongest predictor of HCC development.

Clinical utility of simple non-invasive liver fibrosis indices for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among Egyptian patients

AIM

Serological indices for liver fibrosis have been widely used to estimate liver fibrosis, but as far as we know they have not been tested to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim is to study the clinical usefulness of some simple non-invasive fibrosis indices in the prediction of HCC among Egyptian patients.

METHODS

Ninety patients with HCC who were presented to the National Cancer Institute, Cairo University, were included in this study, together with 30 patients with cirrhosis as a benign control group and 30 apparently healthy volunteers as a normal control group. FIB4 Score, Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST) to Platelet (PLT) Ratio Index (APRI) Score, AST/PLT ratio, Age/PLT Index and AST/alanine aminotransferase indices were calculated for all patients and controls and were tested for their clinical use to predict HCC.

RESULTS

Double combination between alpha-fetoprotein and FIB4 Score when either one was abnormal showed the highest diagnostic performance between the HCC group and the cirrhosis and control groups with sensitivity and specificity of (93% and 96%), respectively, whereas the APRI Score was the best to differentiate between the cirrhosis and control groups with sensitivity and specificity of 100% each.

CONCLUSIONS

Using some simple non-costly indices can accurately predict HCC and differentiate it from cirrhosis and normal control cases among Egyptian patients, it can also differentiate cirrhosis from normal controls, so can be used as diagnostic and screening tools for both HCC and liver cirrhosis among the Egyptian population.

Elevated serum levels of Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2 binding protein predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C patients

The Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2-binding protein (WFA+-M2BP) was recently shown to be a liver fibrosis glycobiomarker with a unique fibrosis-related glycoalteration. We evaluated the ability of WFA+-M2BP to predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who were infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV). A total of 707 patients who had been admitted to our hospital with chronic HCV infection without other potential risk factors were evaluated to determine the ability of WFA+-M2BP to predict the development of HCC; factors evaluated included age, sex, viral load, genotypes, fibrosis stage, aspartate and alanine aminotransferase levels, bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), WFA+-M2BP, and the response to interferon (IFN) therapy. Serum WFA+-M2BP levels were significantly increased according to the progression of liver fibrosis stage (P<0.001). In each distinctive stage of fibrosis (F0-F1, F2, F3, and F4), the risk of development of HCC was increased according to the elevation of WFA+-M2BP. Multivariate analysis identified age>57 years, F4, AFP>20 ng/mL, WFA+-M2BP ≥4, and WFA+-M2BP 1-4 as well as the response to IFN (no therapy vs. sustained virological response) as independent risk factors for the development of HCC. The time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that the WFA+-M2BP assay predicted the development of HCC with higher diagnostic accuracy than AFP.

CONCLUSION

WFA+-M2BP can be applied as a useful surrogate marker for the risk of HCC development, in addition to liver biopsy.

Prediction of liver stiffness hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C patients on interferon-based anti-viral therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) for assessing the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients receiving interferon (IFN) therapy.

METHODS

One hundred fifty-one CHC patients who underwent LSM and received IFN therapy were included in the estimation cohort, and 56 were included in the validation study. The cumulative HCC incidences were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier plot analysis and the log-rank test. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of variables for HCC.

RESULTS

In the estimation cohort, 9 of 151 patients developed HCC during the median follow-up time of 722 days. Multivariate analysis identified three independent risk factors for HCC: LSM (≥ 14.0 kPa, HR 5.58, P = 0.020), platelet count (< 14.1 × 10(4) /μL, HR 5.59, P = 0.034), and non-sustained virological response (HR 8.28, P = 0.049). The cumulative incidence of HCC development at 3 years was 59.6%, 8.2%, and 0.0% in patients with all three risk factors, one to two risk factors, and none of these risk factors, respectively. The incidence of HCC was significantly different between these groups (P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, HCC incidence was also significantly different with respect to these risk factors (P = 0.037).

CONCLUSION

LSM, platelet count, and IFN-therapeutic effect could be used to successfully stratify the risk of HCC in patients receiving IFN therapy and demonstrate the usefulness of LSM before IFN therapy for the management of CHC patients.

Histopathology of type C liver disease for determining hepatocellular carcinoma risk factors

AIM: To evaluate the histopathological findings of type C liver disease to determine risk factors for development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS: We studied 232 patients, who underwent liver biopsy for type C chronic liver disease between 1992 and 2009, with sustained virological response (SVR) after interferon therapy. The patients were divided into two groups according to the F stage 0 + 1 + 2 group (n = 182) and F3 + 4 group (n = 50). We prospectively observed and compared the incidence of HCC of the patients with SVR in the F0 + 1 + 2 and F3 + 4 groups. Then, the background factors and liver histopathological findings, including the degree of fibrosis, F stage, inflammation, necrosis, bile duct obstruction, fat deposition, and degree of irregular regeneration (IR) of hepatocytes, were correlated with the risk of developing HCC.

RESULTS: HCC developed in three of 182 (1.6%) patients in the F0 + 1 + 2 group, and four of 50 (8.0%) in the F3 + 4 group. The cumulative incidence of HCC in the former group was found to be significantly lower than in the F3 + 4 group (log rank test P = 0.0224). The presence of atypical hepatocytes among IR of hepatocytes in the F3 + 4 group resulted in a higher cumulative incidence of HCC, and was significantly correlated with risk of HCC development (RR = 20.748, 95%CI: 1.335-322.5, P = 0.0303).

CONCLUSION: Atypical hepatocytes among the histopathological findings of type C liver disease may be an important risk factor for HCC development along with progression of liver fibrosis.

Assessment of disease progression in patients with transfusion-associated chronic hepatitis C using transient elastography

AIM

To evaluate the relationship between liver stiffness and duration of infection in blood transfusion-associated hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients with or without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Between December 2006 and June 2008, a total of 524 transfusion-associated HCV-RNA positive patients with or without HCC were enrolled. Liver stiffness was obtained noninvasively by using Fibroscan (Echosens, Paris, France). The date of blood transfusion was obtained by interview. Duration of infection was derived from the interval between the date of blood transfusion and the date of liver stiffness measurement (LSM). Patients were stratified into four groups based on the duration of infection (17-29 years; 30-39 years; 40-49 years; and 50-70 years). The difference in liver stiffness between patients with and without HCC was assessed in each group. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the factors associated with liver stiffness.

RESULTS

A total of 524 patients underwent LSM. Eight patients were excluded because of unsuccessful measurements. Thus 516 patients were included in the current analysis (225 with HCC and 291 without). The patients were 244 men and 272 women, with a mean age of 67.8 ± 9.5 years. The median liver stiffness was 14.3 kPa (25.8 in HCC group and 7.6 in non-HCC group). The patients who developed HCC in short duration of infection were male dominant, having lower platelet count, with a history of heavier alcohol consumption, showing higher liver stiffness, and receiving blood transfusion at an old age. Liver stiffness was positively correlated with duration of infection in patients without HCC (r = 0.132, P = 0.024) but not in patients with HCC (r = -0.103, P = 0.123). Liver stiffness was significantly higher in patients with HCC than in those without in each duration group (P < 0.0001). The factors significantly associated with high liver stiffness in multiple regression were age at blood transfusion (P < 0.0001), duration of infection (P = 0.0015), and heavy alcohol consumption (P = 0.043).

CONCLUSION

Although liver stiffness gradually increases over time, HCC develops in patients with high stiffness value regardless of the duration of infection.

Alpha-fetoprotein above normal levels as a risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients infected with hepatitis C virus

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive risk factors are required for predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) not only in patients with cirrhosis but also in those with chronic hepatitis who are infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV).

METHODS

A total of 707 patients with chronic HCV infection without other risks were evaluated for the predictive value of noninvasive risk factors for HCC, including age, sex, viral load, genotype, fibrosis stage, aspartate and alanine aminotransferase levels, bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at entry to the study, as well as interferon (IFN) therapy they received.

RESULTS

The ten-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC for patients with fibrosis stages F0/F1, F2, F3, and F4 were 2.5, 12.8, 19.3, and 55.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified age ≥57 years [hazard ratio (HR) 2.026, P = 0.004], fibrosis stage F4 (HR 3.957, P < 0.001), and AFP 6-20 ng/mL (HR 1.942, P = 0.030) and ≥20 ng/mL (HR 3.884, P < 0.001), as well as the response to IFN [relative risk (RR) 0.099, P < 0.001], as independent risk factors for the development of HCC. The ten-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC in the patients with AFP levels of <6, 6-20, and ≥20 ng/mL at entry were 6.0, 24.6, and 47.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Not only high (>20 ng/mL), but also even slightly elevated (6-20 ng/mL) AFP levels, could serve as a risk factor for HCC to complement the fibrosis stage. In contrast, AFP levels <6 ng/mL indicate a low risk of HCC development in patients infected with HCV, irrespective of the fibrosis stage.

Validation of P2/MS for reflecting hepatic fibrosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

P2/MS is known as a simple, accurate, and noninvasive marker for determination of the degree of hepatic fibrosis in patients with viral hepatitis. We aimed to validate P2/MS in patients with HCC.

METHODS

Consecutive HCC patients who underwent surgical resection between June 2007 and March 2009 at Seoul National University Hospital were enrolled. Fibrosis stage was reviewed and assessed according to METAVIR scoring. P2/MS values [platelet count (10(9)/L)](2)/[monocyte fraction (%)(x)segmented neutrophil fraction (%)] and other noninvasive fibrosis scoring systems were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 171 patients were included; seven patients with METAVIR F1, 31 with F2, 41 with F3, and 92 with F4. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of P2/MS was 0.804 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.681~0.927] for detection of significant fibrosis (F2-F4) and 0.769 (95% CI, 0.698~0.839) for detection of histological cirrhosis (F4). At a value < 62, P2/MS detected significant fibrosis with a specificity of 85.7% (95% CI, 42.0~99.2) and a positive likelihood ratio of 4.268 (95% CI, 0.692~26.309); and at a value > 115, P2/MS ruled out significant fibrosis with a sensitivity of 90.2% (95% CI, 84.4~94.1) and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.34 (95% CI, 0.106~0.095). P2/MS had a superior efficacy for detection of hepatic fibrosis in patients with HCC compared to the other noninvasive panels.

CONCLUSIONS

P2/MS can accurately detect fibrosis in patients with HCC. Thus, P2/MS might be utilized as a noninvasive index reflecting the degree of hepatic fibrosis in HCC patients.

Multi-state Markov models for disease progression in the presence of informative examination times: an application to hepatitis C

In many chronic diseases it is important to understand the rate at which patients progress from infection through a series of defined disease states to a clinical outcome, e.g. cirrhosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals or AIDS in HIV-infected individuals. Typically data are obtained from longitudinal studies, which often are observational in nature, and where disease state is observed only at selected examinations throughout follow-up. Transition times between disease states are therefore interval censored. Multi-state Markov models are commonly used to analyze such data, but rely on the assumption that the examination times are non-informative, and hence the examination process is ignorable in a likelihood-based analysis. In this paper we develop a Markov model that relaxes this assumption through the premise that the examination process is ignorable only after conditioning on a more regularly observed auxiliary variable. This situation arises in a study of HCV disease progression, where liver biopsies (the examinations) are sparse, irregular, and potentially informative with respect to the transition times. We use additional information on liver function tests (LFTs), commonly collected throughout follow-up, to inform current disease state and to assume an ignorable examination process. The model developed has a similar structure to a hidden Markov model and accommodates both the series of LFT measurements and the partially latent series of disease states. We show through simulation how this model compares with the commonly used ignorable Markov model, and a Markov model that assumes the examination process is non-ignorable.

Bias in Markov models of disease

We examine bias in Markov models of diseases, including both chronic and infectious diseases. We consider two common types of Markov disease models: ones where disease progression changes by severity of disease, and ones where progression of disease changes in time or by age. We find sufficient conditions for bias to exist in models with aggregated transition probabilities when compared to models with state/time dependent transition probabilities. We also find that when aggregating data to compute transition probabilities, bias increases with the degree of data aggregation. We illustrate by examining bias in Markov models of Hepatitis C, Alzheimer's disease, and lung cancer using medical data and find that the bias is significant depending on the method used to aggregate the data. A key implication is that by not incorporating state/time dependent transition probabilities, studies that use Markov models of diseases may be significantly overestimating or underestimating disease progression. This could potentially result in incorrect recommendations from cost-effectiveness studies and incorrect disease burden forecasts.

Hepatitis C virus genotype 1b as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma development: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a known risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but whether the risk varies among patients infected with different HCV genotypes is still controversial. We performed a meta-analysis to clarify whether the genotype 1b is associated with a higher risk of HCC than other genotypes.

METHODS

We identified 57 relevant papers through a literature search to December 2007 but, since age could represent a major confounder, we focused the meta-analysis on the 21 studies presenting age-adjusted risk estimates for HCV genotype 1b vs. other genotypes. We used random-effects models with the DerSimonian-Laird method and assessed heterogeneity between studies and publication bias.

RESULTS

Patients infected with HCV genotype 1b have almost double the risk to develop HCC than those infected with other genotypes (Relative Risk (95% Confidence Intervals) = 1.78(1.36-2.32)). The pooled risk estimate was somewhat lower when we restricted the analysis to the eight studies conducted in patients with liver cirrhosis (1.60;1.07-2.39) or considering the 36 studies presenting only crude data (1.63;1.30-2.06). In seven studies excluding patients with liver cirrhosis, the RR (95% CI) increased to 2.46(1.69-3.59).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis suggests that HCV genotype 1b plays an important role in HCC development, especially in patients with early stage liver disease.

Natural history of hepatic fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C virus infection in India

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The rate of fibrosis progression per year can predict the time for the development of cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We assessed the rate of fibrosis progression and the predictors of disease severity in Indian CHC patients.

METHODS

Of the 355 treatment-naïve, histologically-proven CHC patients, the precise duration of infection (from the time of exposure to HCV until liver biopsy) could be determined in 213 patients (age = 41.6 +/- 14.7 years, male : female = 139 : 74, genotype 3 = 75%). The rate of fibrosis progression per year was calculated. The correlation of the advanced degree of fibrosis and age, duration of infection, age at the onset of infection, sex, mode of infection, hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype, histological activity index (HAI), and the presence of diabetes mellitus were studied.

RESULTS

The median rate of fibrosis progression per year was 0.25 (0.0-1.5) fibrosis units. The fibrosis progression rate was higher in patients who acquired infection at > 30 years of age, those < 30 years (0.33 vs 0.15; P < 0.001), and those who acquired HCV infection with a history of blood transfusion than with other modes of transmission (0.25 vs 0.19; P = 0.04). The median time to progress to cirrhosis was 16 years. The multivariate analysis found that the HAI score (odds ratio [OR]= 14.03; P < 0.001) and the duration of infection > 10 years (OR = 4.83; P < 0.001) correlated with severe liver disease (fibrosis > or = 3).

CONCLUSION

The median rate of fibrosis progression per year in Indian CHC patients is 0.25 fibrosis units. A higher HAI and longer duration of infection are associated with a significant risk of advanced liver disease, and merit early therapeutic interventions.

Clinicopathological features, background liver disease, and survival analysis of HCV-positive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: differences between young and elderly patients

BACKGROUND

The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence and characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody-positive elderly patients with chronic hepatitis without cirrhosis.

METHODS

The study included 65 patients who developed HCC at >or=75 years of age and who received their first HCC therapy at Toranomon Hospital between 1985 and 2005. Their clinicopathological and laboratory data were analyzed and compared with those of 33 patients who developed HCC at <or=50 years of age during the same period.

RESULTS

The ratio of women patients in the elderly group (M: F = 1.1: 1) was higher than in the younger group (M: F = 5.6: 1). Also, patients in the elderly group had better liver function and prothrombin activity (P = 0.001), and lower total bilirubin (P = 0.002) than the young group. Only 11 of 65 elderly patients were diagnosed with liver cirrhosis by biopsy or peritoneoscopy before or at the time of development of HCC. Based on a discriminate score using gamma-globulin, hyaluronate level, platelet count, and sex, 27 (41.5%) elderly patients were considered to have chronic hepatitis, compared with six of 33 (18.1%) patients in the young group (P = 0.025). There were no differences in tumor number or size or tumor markers between the two groups. Survival rate was higher in the younger patients (P = 0.002), who were more likely to receive radical treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed distinct differences in HCV-related HCC between elderly and young patients and suggested that elderly patients (especially women) could develop HCC even when liver histology shows chronic hepatitis and lack of cirrhosis.

Comparison of liver biopsy and transient elastography based on clinical relevance

BACKGROUND

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography has recently been validated for the evaluation of liver fibrosis in chronic liver diseases. The present study focused on cases in which liver biopsy and LSM were discordant.

METHODS

Three hundred eighty-six patients with chronic hepatitis C who underwent a liver biopsy between December 2004 and April 2007 were studied. First, the optimal cut-off value of LSM was selected for the determination of cirrhosis based on the receiver operating characteristic curve. Then, the cases in which liver histology and evaluation by LSM were discordant were selected. Laboratory test results such as serum total bilirubin concentration, prothrombin activity, albumin concentration, platelet count and the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, together with the presence of esophageal varices, were analyzed.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off value was chosen to be 15.9 kPa for cirrhosis (fibrosis stage [F] 4) determination to maximize the sum of sensitivity (78.9%) and specificity (81.0%). There were 78 discordant cases: 51 patients showed an LSM of 15.9 kPa or higher and a fibrosis stage of F1 to F3 (high LSM group), and 27 patients had an LSM lower than 15.9 kPa and a fibrosis stage of F4 (low LSM group). Esophageal varices were seen in 11 patients in the high LSM group (n=51) and in no patients in the low LSM group (n=27) (P=0.0012). The aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index was significantly higher in the high LSM group (1.49 versus 0.89, P=0.019). Other parameters did not differ significantly. However, platelet count, prothrombin activity and albumin concentration tended to be lower in the high LSM group.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a high LSM need proper attention for cirrhosis, even if liver biopsy does not reveal cirrhosis.

Liver fibrosis is associated with decreased peripheral platelet count in patients with chronic hepatitis B and C

Thrombocytopenia is a common complication of chronic liver diseases, but its pathogenesis is not clear. Although generally attributed to hypersplenism, other factors should also be considered. We investigated the relationship between the peripheral platelet count and the degree of fibrosis in patients with chronic viral hepatitis. In an effort to avoid the effects of hypersplenism, we excluded patients with splenomegaly and/or bi- or pan-cytopenia. Seven hundred eighty-four patients (265 chronic viral hepatitis C and 519 chronic viral hepatitis B) were included in the study. Univariate analysis showed that the peripheral platelet count had a negative correlation with fibrosis score, necroinflammatory activity, and age in both groups. In multivariate analysis, the peripheral platelet count had a similar correlation with the fibrosis score and age, but not with necroinflammatory activity, in both groups. The peripheral platelet count decreased more significantly in females with chronic hepatitis C but not in the chronic hepatitis B group. In conclusion, a decrease in peripheral platelet count may be a sign of an increase in the degree of fibrosis during the course of chronic viral hepatitis B and C and factors other than hypersplenism may play a role in this decrease in the peripheral platelet count.

Progression to cirrhosis in hepatitis C patients: an age-dependent process

BACKGROUND

Age at infection is known to be associated with disease progression rate in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients. The aim of this study was to assess when cirrhosis is expected to occur according to host and viral factors.

METHODS

Fibrosis progression was studied in 247 naive HCV patients using multiple regression analysis. The expected age at cirrhosis was calculated for each patient.

RESULTS

Progression rate was 0.13, 0.14, 0.27, and 0.36 U of fibrosis/year for patients with age at infection <or=19, 20-24, 25-36 and >or=37 years, respectively. Age at infection above 37 years was independently associated with fast progression (rate>0.13; P=0.001). Body mass index >25 kg/m2 and alanine aminotransferase>3 x ULN are also possibly associated with faster progression. Based on progression rates, the expected age at cirrhosis is 65.4, 64.6, 64.8 and 69.4 years for age at infection <or=19, 20-24, 25-36, >or=37 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Most HCV patients, if untreated, are expected to develop cirrhosis at about 65 years, irrespective of the age at infection. Thus, age itself seems even more important than age at infection for predicting the occurrence of liver cirrhosis. A specific active monitoring and therapeutic approach should be adopted in older patients to prevent progression to cirrhosis and its complications.

Interferon therapy improves the irregular regeneration of hepatocytes in liver in patients with C-viral chronic hepatitis and liver cirrhosis

We examined changes in the degree of irregular regeneration (IR) of hepatocytes and the F stage in patients with C-viral chronic hepatitis (CH) and liver cirrhosis (LC) who received interferon (IFN) therapy. The IFN-treated group consisted of 148 C-viral CH and LC patients; the IFN-untreated (UT) group consisted of 42 patients. The liver biopsy specimens were examined histologically, followed by a separate scoring of the degree of IR of hepatocytes which was classified into the following 5 grades and scored (IR score): score 0 (none), 1 (minimal), 2 (mild), 3 (moderate) and 4 (severe). The annual rates of the IR score were -0.593 in sustained virologic responders, -0.188 in sustained biochemical responders, 0.071 in nonresponders and 0.121 in UT patients. The annual rates of the F stage were -0.218 in sustained virologic responders, -0.061 in sustained biochemical responders, 0.123 in nonresponders and 0.157 in UT patients. The cumulative probability of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence was significantly higher in groups of IFN-treated patients without improvement of IR scores than in groups with improvement of IR scores. Multivariate analyses revealed that a lack of improvement in the IR score was a cardinal risk factor for the development of HCC in C-viral CH and LC patients. Our data suggest that IFN therapy leads to an improvement in the degree of IR of hepatocytes and thereby influences the development of HCC in patients with CH and LC.

Clinical significance of evaluation of serum zinc concentrations in C-viral chronic liver disease

We evaluated zinc concentrations in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive chronic liver disease and correlated them with the clinical profiles of the patients. A total of 100 patients with chronic hepatitis (CH), 29 with liver cirrhosis (LC), and 6 who were asymptomatic HCV carriers (ASC) were examined. All of the patients were positive for serum HCV RNA. One hundred eighteen HCV antibody-positive hepatocellear carcinoma (HCC) patients and 11 healthy subjects also were included in this study. Serum zinc concentrations were evaluated using conventional atomic absorption spectrometry. The median concentration of zinc in patients with CH was statistically lower than that in healthy control subjects. The median zinc concentrations of the LC and HCC groups were significantly lower than that of the CH group. A significant correlation was observed between the zinc concentrations and the platelet counts and albumin concentrations. The zinc concentrations did not correlate with tumor size and number and decreased with the development of Child-Pugh stage. The cumulative survival rate after therapy for HCC nodules in the low zinc concentration group was significantly lower than in the high group. We conclude that the serum concentration of zinc influences the clinical profiles in patients with C-viral chronic liver disease.

A simple noninvasive index for predicting long-term outcome of chronic hepatitis C after interferon-based therapy

Changes in hepatic fibrosis after interferon-based therapy may be important in determining the long-term outcome of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The use of liver biopsy for posttreatment assessment is not a viable option as a routine follow-up procedure. This study evaluated the predictive value of a simple noninvasive index, the aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index assessed 6 months after end of treatment (APRI-M6). We evaluated APRI-M6, platelet-M6, AST-M6, and alpha-fetoprotein-M6 of 776 CHC patients with interferon-based therapy as well as the parameters at baseline of 562 untreated patients who were evaluated to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality, during a mean follow-up period of 4.75 (1.0-12.2) and 5.15 (1.0-16) years, respectively. Based on analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and using optimized cutoff point, the APRI-M6 and platelet-M6 had superior prediction models for long-term outcome with area under the curve of 0.870-0.875 and 0.824-0.847, respectively, and accuracy of 78%-81% and 76%-78%, respectively, for interferon-based-treated patients. The predictive values of all 4 parameters were poor in untreated patients. In subgroup analysis, the APRI-M6 provided a more consistent prediction ratio than platelet-M6 for sustained responders and cirrhosis-free subgroups; both parameters had similar prediction power for nonresponders and were unsatisfactory in patients with cirrhosis. According to Cox proportional hazards analysis, cirrhosis and APRI-M6 were the 2 most important factors for predicting HCC. In conclusion, APRI-M6 can accurately predict the long-term outcome of patients subjected to interferon-based treatment. Nevertheless, the data needs further validation, particularly since the predictive accuracy for patients with cirrhosis is low.

Epidemiology and natural history of hepatitis C virus infection in injection drug users: implications for treatment

Effective methods to diminish the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among injection drug users (IDUs) require consideration of the epidemiology and natural history of both hepatitis C and drug use. Most HCV infections are due to injection drug use, and most IDUs have HCV infection. In addition, HCV infection often occurs with other medical problems, such as human immunodeficiency virus infection and depression, which may complicate its recognition and management. Infection with HCV can be fatal, but usually not until years later, and persons may be unaware of the infection, allowing an individual to infect many others. Effective treatment is available for HCV infection; however, the therapy is prolonged, involving both weekly injections and daily oral medication, and is typically associated with significant adverse effects, such as fatigue, depression, and, rarely, life-threatening complications. Although clearly some IDUs want their HCV infection to be treated, many are unwilling or unable to initiate or sustain treatment with currently available therapies, and IDUs who are treated require considerable, multidimensional support. Solutions to the problem of HCV infection among IDUs must account for these facts.

Measurement of human intercellular adhesion molecule 1 in the blood is useful for predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinomas from chronic hepatitis C and liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

We measured the concentrations of serum intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (sICAM-1) in patients with C-viral chronic liver diseases and started prospective studies immediately thereafter, in order to determine whether the concentration of sICAM-1 is useful for predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following C-viral chronic hepatitis (CH) and liver cirrhosis (LC).

METHODS

We studied 74 patients with CH, 18 with LC, and 28 patients with HCC who visited our institute from 1993 through 1996. All were positive for hepatitis C virus RNA in the blood. The concentrations of sICAM-1 were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits. The expression of ICAM-1 in the liver was detected by indirect immunoperoxidase staining.

RESULTS

The concentrations of sICAM-1 were significantly higher in patients with LC and HCC than in patients with CH. The sICAM-1 concentrations were high in patients whose platelet counts were low. ICAM-1 in the liver was localized to the endoplasmic reticulum or the membrane of cancer cells. The cumulative rate of occurrence of HCC from CH or LC was significantly higher in the high-sICAM-1 group (>400 ng/ml) than in the low-sICAM-1 group. Multivariate analysis revealed that elevation of the sICAM-1 concentration is a significant risk factor for the occurrence of HCC.

CONCLUSION

Evaluation of the sICAM-1 concentration is useful for prediction of the occurrence of HCC in patients with C-viral CH or LC.

Treatment of interferon-α for chronic hepatitis C

Combination therapy with polyethylene glycosylated IFN-alpha2a or IFN-alpha2b and ribavirin is currently the standard therapy for chronic hepatitis C. However, even with this therapy, hepatitis C virus cannot be eradicated in 50% of patients with refractory chronic hepatitis C. In addition, withdrawal or dose reduction occurs in approximately 40% of patients due to adverse effects. This treatment is also a contraindication in some patients, such as in patients with coexisting diseases or in elderly patients. For these patients, standard IFN-alpha monotherapy is even safer and more effective. In patients with chronic hepatitis C, IFN-alpha monotherapy results in a significant increase in the cumulative survival rate by suppressing the progression to hepatocellular carcinoma or liver failure. In addition, other efficacious therapeutic regimens have been employed, such as prolonged administration of standard IFN-alpha in elderly patients; prolonged low-dose continuous administration in patients with decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma postoperative patients; and combination therapy with 5-fluorouracil and standard IFN-alpha for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Monotherapy with standard IFN-alpha should thus be recognised as one of the important therapeutic strategies for chronic hepatitis C.

Estimated progression rates in three United Kingdom hepatitis C cohorts differed according to method of recruitment

OBJECTIVES

To estimate hepatitis C virus (HCV) progression rates between disease stages prior to cirrhosis, using data from liver biopsies in three observational cohorts. To demonstrate how the method of cohort recruitment can influence the estimation of HCV-progression rates.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Data came from three United Kingdom observational cohorts, assembled from different referral sources. In total, 987 HCV-infected patients with an estimated (or known) date of infection and at least one histologically scored liver biopsy were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. Liver biopsy scores were used to determine the stage of HCV-related liver disease. A three-state continuous time Markov model was used to estimate covariate-specific average probabilities of progression of disease.

RESULTS

After adjusting for confounders, considerably different rates of disease progression were estimated in the three cohorts. For a group of patients with the same demographics, the estimated 20-year probability of progression to cirrhosis was 12% (95% confidence interval CI = 6-22) in a hospital-based cohort, 6% (95% CI = 3-13) in a posttransfusion cohort, and 23% (95% CI = 14-37) in a cohort recruited from a tertiary referral center.

CONCLUSION

Researchers using estimates of disease progression should be aware that the method of cohort recruitment has considerable influence on the progression rates that are derived.

Natural history of hepatitis C

Fifteen years after the discovery of the hepatitis C virus, a substantial amount of information has been learned about the natural history of infection. Testing for viral nucleic acid made it possible to accurately diagnose chronic infection and provided a more precise estimate of the overall frequency of viral persistence. Although cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma can arise in persons with chronic hepatitis C, these outcomes do not always occur. The cirrhosis risk is greater in those who are infected at older ages, those who drink >50 g of alcohol each day, and persons coinfected with HIV. However, much of the person-to-person variability in progression of chronic hepatitis C remains unexplained. The ability to detect persons at highest risk of progression remains incomplete and represents an important future challenge in the understanding of the natural history of hepatitis C.

Impact of interferon-alpha therapy on liver fibrosis progression in patients with HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B

The possible effect of interferon-alpha (IFNa) on liver fibrosis progression has not been adequately studied in chronic hepatitis B. We evaluated 147 patients with HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B who had > or =2 liver biopsies and had been treated with IFNa (n = 120) or had remained untreated (n = 27). The median interval between the two biopsies was 24 (12-160) months. All biopsies were scored blindly by a single liver histopathologist according to the classification of Ishak et al. (J Hepatol 1995; 22: 696-699). IFNa induced sustained biochemical response in 30, initial response and subsequent relapse in 57 and no response in 33 patients. Fibrosis improved in 17.5% of treated (sustained responders: 40%, relapsers: 9%, nonresponders: 12%) and 4% of untreated patients and worsened in 34% (sustained responders: 7%, relapsers: 40%, nonresponders: 48%) and 70% of cases, respectively (P = 0.002). The annual rate of fibrosis progression was worse in the untreated (0.427 +/- 0.119) than in treated patients (0.067 +/- 0.052, P = 0.001). However, the fibrosis progression rate in the untreated patients was not significantly different than the net fibrosis progression rate (after subtraction of IFNa duration) in nonresponders or relapsers. In multivariate analysis, worse fibrosis progression rate was associated with older age (P = 0.010), worse baseline grading score (P < 0.001), lower baseline fibrosis (P = 0.035) and the type of response to IFNa (P = 0.032). In conclusion, in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B, IFNa significantly reduces the rate of fibrosis progression, but such an effect is mainly observed in patients with sustained biochemical responses. In relapsers and nonresponders, fibrosis benefit equals the treatment period. The strongest factor associated with fibrosis progression is the change in necroinflammatory activity.