Issues of intervention aimed at preventing prospective surplus of physicians in Japan

Future projection of the physician workforce and its geographical equity in Japan: a cohort-component model

INTRODUCTION

The geographical inequity of physicians is a serious problem in Japan. However, there is little evidence of inequity in the future geographical distribution of physicians, even though the future physician supply at the national level has been estimated. In addition, possible changes in the age and sex distribution of future physicians are unclear. Thus, the purpose of this study is to project the future geographical distribution of physicians and their demographics.

METHODS

We used a cohort-component model with the following assumptions: basic population, future mortality rate, future new registration rate, and future in-migration and out-migration rates. We examined changes in the number of physicians from 2005 to 2035 in secondary medical areas (SMAs) in Japan. To clarify the trends by regional characteristics, SMAs were divided into four groups based on urban or rural status and initial physician supply (lower/higher). The number of physicians was calculated separately by sex and age strata.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2035, the absolute number of physicians aged 25-64 will decline by 6.1% in rural areas with an initially lower physician supply, but it will increase by 37.0% in urban areas with an initially lower supply. The proportion of aged physicians will increase in all areas, especially in rural ones with an initially lower supply, where it will change from 14.4% to 31.3%. The inequity in the geographical distribution of physicians will expand despite an increase in the number of physicians in rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the geographical disparity of physicians will worsen from 2005 to 2035. Furthermore, physicians aged 25-64 will be more concentrated in urban areas, and physicians will age more rapidly in rural places than urban ones. The regional disparity in the physician supply will worsen in the future if new and drastic measures are not taken.

Examining changes in the equity of physician distribution in Japan: a specialty-specific longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

In this longitudinal study, we examined changes in the geographical distribution of physicians in Japan from 2000 to 2014 by clinical specialty with adjustments for healthcare demand based on population structure.

METHODS

The Japanese population was adjusted for healthcare demand using health expenditure per capita stratified by age and sex. The numbers of physicians per 100 000 demand-adjusted population (DAP) in 2000 and 2014 were calculated for subprefectural regions known as secondary medical areas. Disparities in the geographical distribution of physicians for each specialty were assessed using Gini coefficients. A subgroup analysis was conducted by dividing the regions into four groups according to urban-rural classification and initial physician supply.

RESULTS

Over the study period, the number of physicians per 100 000 DAP decreased in all specialties assessed (internal medicine: -6.9%, surgery: -26.0%, orthopaedics: -2.1%, obstetrics/gynaecology (per female population): -17.5%) except paediatrics (+33.3%) and anaesthesiology (+21.1%). No reductions in geographical disparity were observed in any of the specialties assessed. Geographical disparity increased substantially in internal medicine, surgery and obstetrics and gynaecology(OB/GYN). Rural areas with lower initial physician supply experienced the highest decreases in physicians per 100 000 DAP for all specialties assessed except paediatrics and anaesthesiology. In contrast, urban areas with lower initial physician supply experienced the lowest decreases in physicians per 100 000 DAP in internal medicine, surgery, orthopaedics and OB/GYN, but the highest increase in anaesthesiology.

CONCLUSION

Between 2000 and 2014, the number of physicians per 100 000 DAP in Japan decreased in all specialties assessed except paediatrics and anaesthesiology. There is also a growing urban-rural disparity in physician supply in all specialties assessed except paediatrics. Additional measures may be needed to resolve these issues and improve physician distribution in Japan.

Examining sufficiency and equity in the geographic distribution of physicians in Japan: a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to longitudinally examine the geographic distribution of physicians in Japan with adjustment for healthcare demand according to changes in population age structure.

METHODS

We examined trends in the number of physicians per 100 000 population in Japan's secondary medical areas (SMAs) from 2000 to 2014. Healthcare demand was adjusted using health expenditure per capita. Trends in the Gini coefficient and the number of SMAs with a low physician supply were analysed. A subgroup analysis was also conducted where SMAs were divided into 4 groups according to urban-rural classification and initial physician supply.

RESULTS

The time-based changes in the Gini coefficient and the number of SMAs with a low physician supply indicated that the equity in physician distribution had worsened throughout the study period. The number of physicians per 100 000 population had seemingly increased in all groups, with increases of 22.9% and 34.5% in urban groups with higher and lower initial physician supply, respectively. However, after adjusting healthcare demand, physician supply decreased by 1.3% in the former group and increased by 3.5% in the latter group. Decreases were also observed in the rural groups, where the number of physicians decreased by 4.4% in the group with a higher initial physician supply and 7.6% in the group with a lower initial physician supply.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the total number of physicians increased in Japan, demand-adjusted physician supply decreased in recent years in all areas except for urban areas with a lower initial physician supply. In addition, the equity of physician distribution had consistently deteriorated since 2000. The results indicate that failing to adjust healthcare demand will produce misleading results, and that there is a need for major reform of Japan's healthcare system to improve physician distribution.

Follow-up study of the regional quota system of Japanese medical schools and prefecture scholarship programmes: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Given the shortage of physicians, particularly in rural areas, the Japanese government has rapidly expanded the number of medical school students by adding chiikiwaku (regional quotas) since 2008. Quota entrants now account for 17% of all medical school entrants. Quota entrants are usually local high school graduates who receive a scholarship from the prefecture government. In exchange, they temporarily practise in that prefecture, including its rural areas, after graduation. Many prefectures also have scholarship programmes for non-quota students in exchange for postgraduate in-prefecture practice. The objective of this cohort study, conducted by the Japanese Council for Community-based Medical Education, is to evaluate the outcomes of the quota admission system and prefecture scholarship programmes nationwide.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

There are 3 groups of study participants: quota without scholarship, quota with scholarship and non-quota with scholarship. Under the support of government ministries and the Association of Japan Medical Colleges, and participation of all prefectures and medical schools, passing rate of the National Physician License Examination, scholarship buy-out rate, geographic distribution and specialties distribution of each group are analysed. Participants who voluntarily participated are followed by linking their baseline information to data in the government's biennial Physician Census. Results to date have shown that, despite medical schools' concerns about academic quality, the passing rate of the National Physician License Examination in each group was higher than that of all medical school graduates.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Ethics Committee for Epidemiological Research of Hiroshima University and the Research Ethics Committee of Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences permitted this study. No individually identifiable results will be presented in conferences or published in journals. The aggregated results will be reported to concerned government ministries, associations, prefectures and medical schools as data for future policy planning.

Physician scarcity is a predictor of further scarcity in US, and a predictor of concentration in Japan

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of geographic diffusion of physicians from medically oversupplied toward undersupplied areas driven by economic competition among physicians and political interventions in Japan and US.

METHODS

A quantitative evaluation of physician workforce changes at the community level between 1980 and 2005, using municipality-based (Japan) and county-based (US) census data.

RESULTS

The overall number of physicians per 100,000 population (physician-to-population ratio: PPR) increased from 130 to 203 in Japan and 158 to 234 in US. In this context, a higher proportion (30.1%) of the quintile communities with lowest PPRs in 1980 has further decreased their PPRs in US than in Japan (21.6% in 2005). In multivariate analysis low PPR was a positive predictor of PPR decrease in the US communities (odds ratio 1.26; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.58), while it was a negative predictor in Japanese communities (0.69; 0.57-0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Physician scarcity is associated with further scarcity in US communities, while scarcity is associated with recovery from scarcity in Japanese communities. Competition-based physician diffusion strategies and various interventions to address the maldistribution of physicians apparently have not worked effectively in US compared with Japan.

The distribution and transitions of physicians in Japan: a 1974-2004 retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In Japan, physicians freely choose their specialty and workplace, because to date there is no management system to ensure a balanced distribution of physicians. Physicians in Japan start their careers in hospitals, then become specialists, and then gradually leave hospitals to work in private clinics and take on primary care roles in their specialty fields. The present study aimed to analyse national trends in the distribution and career transitions of physicians among types of facilities and specialties over a 30-year period.

METHODS

We obtained an electronic file containing physician registration data from the Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists. Descriptive statistics and data on movement between facilities (hospitals and clinics) for all physicians from 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2004 were analysed. Descriptive statistics for the groups of physicians who graduated in 1970, 1980 and 1990 were also analysed, and we examined these groups over time to evaluate their changes of occupation and specialty.

RESULTS

The number of physicians per 100,000 population was 113 in 1974, and rose to 212 by 2004. The number of physicians working in hospitals increased more than threefold. In Japan, while almost all physicians choose hospital-based positions at the beginning of their career, around 20% of physicians withdrew from hospitals within 10 years, and this trend of leaving hospitals was similar among generations. Physicians who graduated in 1980 and registered in general surgery, cardiovascular surgery or paediatric surgery were 10 times more likely to change their specialty, compared with those who registered in internal medicine. More than half of the physicians who registered in 1970 had changed their specialties within a period of 30 years.

CONCLUSION

The government should focus primarily on changing the physician fee schedule, with careful consideration of the balance between office-based physicians and hospital-based physicians and among specialties. To implement effective policies in managing health care human resources, policy-makers should also pay attention to continuously monitoring physicians' practising status and career motivations; and national consensus is needed regarding the number of physicians required in each type of facility and specialty as well as region.

Medical education program with obligatory rural service: analysis of factors associated with obligation compliance

OBJECTIVES

National or local governmental scholarship programs for medical students with a period of contractual obligation to serve in rural areas are a possible solution to the shortage of rural physicians in many countries. This study reports the outcomes of Jichi Medical University (JMU), one such program, and assesses which personal and familial factors of its graduates have positive impacts on their fulfillment of rural obligation.

METHODS

JMU has a unique contract system under which all the graduates have the obligation to work in rural areas in exchange for having their undergraduate tuition waived. In this retrospective cohort study, personal, familial, and academic information of 2988 JMU students who graduated between 1978 and 2006 was collected on admission and graduation, and follow-up information on contract fulfillment status was collected every year after graduation.

RESULTS

Overall 97% of JMU graduates have completed or are completing their contracts. Graduates who complied with the rural obligation were more likely to have attended public high schools, specialize in primary care, and have had shorter careers than those who broke the contract. The graduates who broke their contracts had mothers with higher academic background than compliers did.

CONCLUSIONS

JMU attained a high rate of obligation compliance. Familial background of entrants and primary care specialty of graduates may be key factors to the contract compliance.

The shift of residents from university to non-university hospitals in Japan: a survey study

BACKGROUND

Between 2003 and 2004, when the new postgraduate medical education program was introduced in Japan, the number of university residents decreased from 5,923 to 3,264 (-31%), whereas the number of non-university residents increased from 2,243 to 4,110 (+45%).

OBJECTIVE

To identify potential reasons for the shift of residents from university to non-university hospitals.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional mailed survey.

PARTICIPANTS

The subjects were 1,794 2nd-year residents at 91 university hospitals and 2,010 2nd-year residents at 659 non-university hospitals.

MEASUREMENTS

Data on hospital demographics, resident demographics, and resident satisfaction with training were collected in 2006 and were compared between university and non-university hospitals.

RESULTS

Compared to non-university hospitals, university hospitals were more likely to have >700 beds (55% vs. 10%, p<0.001) and to have more teaching resources and free access to international medical journals (84% vs. 62%, p<0.001). Nevertheless, one-half (47%) of the university residents reported that they were not satisfied with the residency system and clinical skills training and attributed their dissatisfaction to "daily chores," "low salary," and "poor clinical opportunities." Logistic regression analyses indicated that the proportions of residents who were satisfied with income (OR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.26-0.40) and the residency system (OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.40-0.68) and clinical skills training (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.60-0.99) were significantly lower for university residents than for non-university residents.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital size and teaching resources do not overcome the other characteristics of university hospitals that lead to residents' dissatisfaction.