A Decision-Analytic Approach to Addressing the Evidence About Football and Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy

Examining later-in-life health risks associated with sport-related concussion and repetitive head impacts: a systematic review of case-control and cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

Concern exists about possible problems with later-in-life brain health, such as cognitive impairment, mental health problems and neurological diseases, in former athletes. We examined the future risk for adverse health effects associated with sport-related concussion, or exposure to repetitive head impacts, in former athletes.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Search of MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, CINAHL Plus and SPORTDiscus in October 2019 and updated in March 2022.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies measuring future risk (cohort studies) or approximating that risk (case-control studies).

RESULTS

Ten studies of former amateur athletes and 18 studies of former professional athletes were included. No postmortem neuropathology studies or neuroimaging studies met criteria for inclusion. Depression was examined in five studies in former amateur athletes, none identifying an increased risk. Nine studies examined suicidality or suicide as a manner of death, and none found an association with increased risk. Some studies comparing professional athletes with the general population reported associations between sports participation and dementia or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) as a cause of death. Most did not control for potential confounding factors (eg, genetic, demographic, health-related or environmental), were ecological in design and had high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Evidence does not support an increased risk of mental health or neurological diseases in former amateur athletes with exposure to repetitive head impacts. Some studies in former professional athletes suggest an increased risk of neurological disorders such as ALS and dementia; these findings need to be confirmed in higher quality studies with better control of confounding factors.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022159486.

Applying the Bradford Hill Criteria for Causation to Repetitive Head Impacts and Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy

Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disease associated with a history of repetitive head impacts (RHI). CTE was described in boxers as early as the 1920s and by the 1950s it was widely accepted that hits to the head caused some boxers to become "punch drunk." However, the recent discovery of CTE in American and Australian-rules football, soccer, rugby, ice hockey, and other sports has resulted in renewed debate on whether the relationship between RHI and CTE is causal. Identifying the strength of the evidential relationship between CTE and RHI has implications for public health and medico-legal issues. From a public health perspective, environmentally caused diseases can be mitigated or prevented. Medico-legally, millions of children are exposed to RHI through sports participation; this demographic is too young to legally consent to any potential long-term risks associated with this exposure. To better understand the strength of evidence underlying the possible causal relationship between RHI and CTE, we examined the medical literature through the Bradford Hill criteria for causation. The Bradford Hill criteria, first proposed in 1965 by Sir Austin Bradford Hill, provide a framework to determine if one can justifiably move from an observed association to a verdict of causation. The Bradford Hill criteria include nine viewpoints by which to evaluate human epidemiologic evidence to determine if causation can be deduced: strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and analogy. We explored the question of causation by evaluating studies on CTE as it relates to RHI exposure. Through this lens, we found convincing evidence of a causal relationship between RHI and CTE, as well as an absence of evidence-based alternative explanations. By organizing the CTE literature through this framework, we hope to advance the global conversation on CTE mitigation efforts.

Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy as a Preventable Environmental Disease

In this Perspective we explore the evolution of our understanding of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) and its relationship with repetitive head injury. As with many neurodegenerative conditions, there is an imperfect correspondence between neuropathology and clinical phenotype, but unlike other neurodegenerative diseases, CTE has a discrete and easily modifiable risk factor: exposure to repetitive head injury. Consequently, evaluation of the evidence regarding exposure to repetitive head injury and CTE risk should be undertaken using public or occupational health frameworks of medical knowledge. The current debate over the existence of CTE as a disease of concern is fuelled in part by immediate medico-legal considerations, and the involvement of high-profile athletes, with inevitable media interest. Moving beyond this debate has significant potential to address and reduce disease impact in the near future, and provide novel insights into mechanisms underlying abnormal protein accumulation in CTE and other neurodegenerative diseases.