Agent-based modelling study of antimicrobial-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission in men who have sex with men: towards individualised diagnosis and treatment

Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium-A Modeling Study

Mathematical modeling is widely used for describing infection transmission and evaluating interventions. The lack of reliable social parameters in the literature has been mentioned by many modeling studies, leading to limitations in the validity and interpretation of the results. Using data from the European MSM Internet survey 2017, we developed a network model to describe sex acts among MSM in Belgium. The model simulates daily sex acts among steady, persistent casual and one-off partners in a population of 10,000 MSM, grouped as low- or high-activity by using three different definitions. Model calibration was used to estimate partnership duration and homophily rates to match the distribution of cumulative sex partners over 12 months. We estimated an average duration between 1065 and 1409 days for steady partnerships, 4-6 and 251-299 days for assortative high- and low-activity individuals and 8-13 days for disassortative persistent casual partnerships, respectively, varying across the three definitions. High-quality data on social network and behavioral parameters are scarce in the literature. Our study addresses this lack of information by providing a method to estimate crucial parameters for network specification.

Evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of chlamydia management strategies in Hong Kong: A modeling study

Objectives

To illustrate the epidemiologic and cost-effectiveness impact of shifting the focus from population-based screening toward a targeted management approach for genital chlamydia infection.

Design

Modeling study, implementing an individual-based, stochastic, dynamic network model.

Setting

Hong Kong.

Population

A hypothetical sample network of 10,000 people with a partnership distribution based on Hong Kong's sexually active population of reproductive age (age 18–49 years).

Interventions

In this study, we present several scenarios with different implementations of universal vs. targeted screening (based on partner numbers). We also explored the impact of (1) screening only, (2) screening plus expedited partner therapy, and (3) screening plus partner testing.

Primary outcome measures

Change of chlamydia prevalence before and after implementing the different strategies. The cost-effectiveness analysis reports total direct cost from a health provider perspective, the QALYs gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

Results

In comparing the effects of universal screening only and targeted screening of the high-risk population, the mean prevalence during the 10th year of intervention was 2.75 ± 0.30% and 2.35 ± 0.21%, respectively (compared with 3.24 ± 0.30% and 3.35 ± 0.21% before the interventions, respectively). The addition of contact tracing to the latter targeted screening scenario reduces the mean prevalence during the 10th year of intervention to 1.48 ± 0.13% (compared with 3.31 ± 0.33% at baseline) in the best-case of testing before treatment and maximal contact-tracing effectiveness (40%). Overall, the most effective scenarios were those for which interventions focused on the high-risk population defined by the number of partners, with contact tracing included. The ICER for targeted screening with contact tracing at 20% and 40% efficiency was $4,634 and $7,219 per QALY gained, respectively (10-year time horizon). Expedited partner therapy did not significantly impact overall chlamydia prevalence and caused overtreatment.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that targeted screening with strengthened contact tracing efforts is the most cost-effective strategy to reduce the prevalence of chlamydia in Hong Kong.

What can be learnt from a qualitative evaluation of implementing a rapid sexual health testing, diagnosis and treatment service?

OBJECTIVES

To investigate experiences of implementing a new rapid sexual health testing, diagnosis and treatment service.

DESIGN

A theory-based qualitative evaluation with a focused ethnographic approach using non-participant observations and interviews with patient and clinic staff. Normalisation process theory was used to structure interview questions and thematic analysis.

SETTING

A sexual health centre in Bristol, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

26 patients and 21 staff involved in the rapid sexually transmitted infection (STI) service were interviewed. Purposive sampling was aimed for a range of views and experiences and sociodemographics and STI results for patients, job grades and roles for staff. 40 hours of observations were conducted.

RESULTS

Implementation of the new service required co-ordinated changes in practice across multiple staff teams. Patients also needed to make changes to how they accessed the service. Multiple small 'pilots' of process changes were necessary to find workable options. For example, the service was introduced in phases beginning with male patients. This responsive operating mode created challenges for delivering comprehensive training and communication in advance to all staff. However, staff worked together to adjust and improve the new service, and morale was buoyed through observing positive impacts on patient care. Patients valued faster results and avoiding unnecessary treatment. Patients reported that they were willing to drop-off self-samples and return for a follow-up appointment, enabling infection-specific treatment in accordance with test results, thus improving antimicrobial stewardship.

CONCLUSIONS

The new service was acceptable to staff and patients. Implementation of service changes to improve access and delivery of care in the context of stretched resources can pose challenges for staff at all levels. Early evaluation of pilots of process changes played an important role in the success of the service by rapidly feeding back issues for adjustment. Visibility to staff of positive impacts on patient care is important in maintaining morale.

Visible colorimetric growth indicators of Neisseria gonorrhoeae for low-cost diagnostic applications

N. gonorrhoeae is one of the most pressing antibiotic resistant threats of our time and low-cost diagnostics that can easily identify antibiotic resistance are desperately needed. However, N. gonorrhoeae responds so uniquely to growth conditions that it cannot be assumed gonorrhea will respond to common microbiological methods used for other pathogenic organisms. In this paper, we explore visual colorimetric indicators of N. gonorrhoeae growth that can be seen without a microscope or spectrophotometer. We evaluate growth media, pH indicators, resazurin-based dyes, and tetrazolium-based dyes for their use in simple colorimetric system. Overall, we identified Graver Wade media as the best at supporting robust gonococcal growth while also providing the least background when analyzing results of colorimetric tests. XTT, a tetrazolium-based dye, proved to show to brightest color change over time and not negatively impact the natural growth of N. gonorrhoeae. However, other dyes including PrestoBlue, MTT, and NBT are less expensive than XTT and work well when added after bacterial growth has already occurred. By identifying the specific use cases of these dyes, this research lays the groundwork for future development of a color-based antibiotic susceptibility low-cost test for N. gonorrhoeae.

Antimicrobial resistance point-of-care testing for gonorrhoea treatment regimens: cost-effectiveness and impact on ceftriaxone use of five hypothetical strategies compared with standard care in England sexual health clinics

Background

Widespread ceftriaxone antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threatens Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) treatment, with few alternatives available. AMR point-of-care tests (AMR POCT) may enable alternative treatments, including abandoned regimens, sparing ceftriaxone use. We assessed cost-effectiveness of five hypothetical AMR POCT strategies: A-C included a second antibiotic alongside ceftriaxone; and D and E consisted of a single antibiotic alternative, compared with standard care (SC: ceftriaxone and azithromycin).

Aim

Assess costs and effectiveness of AMR POCT strategies that optimise NG treatment and reduce ceftriaxone use.

Methods

The five AMR POCT treatment strategies were compared using a decision tree model simulating 38,870 NG-diagnosed England sexual health clinic (SHC) attendees; A micro-costing approach, representing cost to the SHC (for 2015/16), was employed. Primary outcomes were: total costs; percentage of patients given optimal treatment (regimens curing NG, without AMR); percentage of patients given non-ceftriaxone optimal treatment; cost-effectiveness (cost per optimal treatment gained).

Results

All strategies cost more than SC. Strategy B (azithromycin and ciprofloxacin (azithromycin preferred); dual therapy) avoided most suboptimal treatments (n = 48) but cost most to implement (GBP 4,093,844 (EUR 5,474,656)). Strategy D (azithromycin AMR POCT; monotherapy) was most cost-effective for both cost per optimal treatments gained (GBP 414.67 (EUR 554.53)) and per ceftriaxone-sparing treatment (GBP 11.29 (EUR 15.09)) but with treatment failures (n = 34) and suboptimal treatments (n = 706).

Conclusions

AMR POCT may enable improved antibiotic stewardship, but require net health system investment. A small reduction in test cost would enable monotherapy AMR POCT strategies to be cost-saving.

Gonorrhoea: tackling the global epidemic in the era of rising antimicrobial resistance

This Special Issue of Sexual Health aims to collate the latest evidence base focussed on understanding the current epidemic and transmission of gonorrhoea, choice of treatment, molecular epidemiology application, concerns about antimicrobial resistance and alternative prevention and control for gonorrhoea.