Competitive release and facilitation of drug-resistant parasites after therapeutic chemotherapy in a rodent malaria model

Niche availability and competitive loss by facilitation control proliferation of bacterial strains intended for soil microbiome interventions

Microbiome engineering - the targeted manipulation of microbial communities - is considered a promising strategy to restore ecosystems, but experimental support and mechanistic understanding are required. Here, we show that bacterial inoculants for soil microbiome engineering may fail to establish because they inadvertently facilitate growth of native resident microbiomes. By generating soil microcosms in presence or absence of standardized soil resident communities, we show how different nutrient availabilities limit outgrowth of focal bacterial inoculants (three Pseudomonads), and how this might be improved by adding an artificial, inoculant-selective nutrient niche. Through random paired interaction assays in agarose micro-beads, we demonstrate that, in addition to direct competition, inoculants lose competitiveness by facilitating growth of resident soil bacteria. Metatranscriptomics experiments with toluene as selective nutrient niche for the inoculant Pseudomonas veronii indicate that this facilitation is due to loss and uptake of excreted metabolites by resident taxa. Generation of selective nutrient niches for inoculants may help to favor their proliferation for the duration of their intended action while limiting their competitive loss.

Frequency-dependent ecological interactions increase the prevalence, and shape the distribution, of pre-existing drug resistance

The evolution of resistance remains one of the primary challenges for modern medicine from infectious diseases to cancers. Many of these resistance-conferring mutations often carry a substantial fitness cost in the absence of treatment. As a result, we would expect these mutants to undergo purifying selection and be rapidly driven to extinction. Nevertheless, pre-existing resistance is frequently observed from drug-resistant malaria to targeted cancer therapies in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and melanoma. Solutions to this apparent paradox have taken several forms from spatial rescue to simple mutation supply arguments. Recently, in an evolved resistant NSCLC cell line, we found that frequency-dependent ecological interactions between ancestor and resistant mutant ameliorate the cost of resistance in the absence of treatment. Here, we hypothesize that frequency-dependent ecological interactions in general play a major role in the prevalence of pre-existing resistance. We combine numerical simulations with robust analytical approximations to provide a rigorous mathematical framework for studying the effects of frequency-dependent ecological interactions on the evolutionary dynamics of pre-existing resistance. First, we find that ecological interactions significantly expand the parameter regime under which we expect to observe pre-existing resistance. Next, even when positive ecological interactions between mutants and ancestors are rare, these resistant clones provide the primary mode of evolved resistance because even weak positive interaction leads to significantly longer extinction times. We then find that even in the case where mutation supply alone is sufficient to predict pre-existing resistance, frequency-dependent ecological forces still contribute a strong evolutionary pressure that selects for increasingly positive ecological effects (negative frequency-dependent selection). Finally, we genetically engineer several of the most common clinically observed resistance mechanisms to targeted therapies in NSCLC, a treatment notorious for pre-existing resistance. We find that each engineered mutant displays a positive ecological interaction with their ancestor. As a whole, these results suggest that frequency-dependent ecological effects can play a crucial role in shaping the evolutionary dynamics of pre-existing resistance.

Modeling resistance to the broadly neutralizing antibody PGT121 in people living with HIV-1

PGT121 is a broadly neutralizing antibody in clinical development for the treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infection via passive administration. PGT121 targets the HIV-1 V3-glycan and demonstrated potent antiviral activity in a phase I clinical trial. Resistance to PGT121 monotherapy rapidly occurred in the majority of participants in this trial with the sampled rebound viruses being entirely resistant to PGT121 mediated neutralization. However, two individuals experienced long-term ART-free viral suppression following antibody infusion and retained sensitivity to PGT121 upon viral rebound. Here, we develop mathematical models of the HIV-1 dynamics during this phase I clinical trial. We utilize these models to understand the dynamics leading to PGT121 resistance and to identify the mechanisms driving the observed long-term viral control. Our modeling highlights the importance of the relative fitness difference between PGT121 sensitive and resistant subpopulations prior to treatment. Specifically, by fitting our models to data, we identify the treatment-induced competitive advantage of previously existing or newly generated resistant population as a primary driver of resistance. Finally, our modeling emphasizes the high neutralization ability of PGT121 in both participants who exhibited long-term viral control.

Drug dependence in cancer is exploitable by optimally constructed treatment holidays

Cancers with acquired resistance to targeted therapy can become simultaneously dependent on the presence of the targeted therapy drug for survival, suggesting that intermittent therapy may slow resistance. However, relatively little is known about which tumours are likely to become dependent and how to schedule intermittent therapy optimally. Here we characterized drug dependence across a panel of over 75 MAPK-inhibitor-resistant BRAFV600E mutant melanoma models at the population and single-clone levels. Melanocytic differentiated models exhibited a much greater tendency to give rise to drug-dependent progeny than their dedifferentiated counterparts. Mechanistically, acquired loss of microphthalmia-associated transcription factor in differentiated melanoma models drives ERK-JunB-p21 signalling to enforce drug dependence. We identified the optimal scheduling of 'drug holidays' using simple mathematical models that we validated across short and long timescales. Without detailed knowledge of tumour characteristics, we found that a simple adaptive therapy protocol can produce near-optimal outcomes using only measurements of total population size. Finally, a spatial agent-based model showed that optimal schedules derived from exponentially growing cells in culture remain nearly optimal in the context of tumour cell turnover and limited environmental carrying capacity. These findings may guide the implementation of improved evolution-inspired treatment strategies for drug-dependent cancers.

The impact of Fisher's reproductive compensation on raising equilibrium frequencies of semidominant, nonlethal mutations under mutation/selection balance

Fisher's reproductive compensation (fRC) occurs when a species' demography means the death of an individual results in increased survival probability of his/her relatives, usually assumed to be full sibs. This likely occurs in many species, including humans. Several important recessive human genetic diseases cause early foetal/infant death allowing fRC to act on these mutations. The impact of fRC on these genetic conditions has been previously calculated and shown to be substantial as quantified by ω, the fold increase in equilibrium frequencies of the mutation under fRC compared with its absence, i.e. ω = 1.22 and ω = 1.33 for autosomal and sex-linked loci, respectively. However, the impact of fRC on the frequency of the much larger class of semidominant, nonlethal mutations is unknown. This is calculated here as ω = 2 - h*s for autosomal loci and ω up to 2 for sex-linked loci where h is dominance (varied between 0.05 and 0.95) and s is selection coefficient (varied between 0.05 and 0.9). These results show that the actions of fRC can almost double the equilibrium frequency of deleterious mutations with low values of h and/or s (noting that "low" is s∼0.05 to 0.1). It is noted that fRC may act differentially across the genome with genes expressed early in life being fully exposed to fRC while those expressed later in life may be unaffected; this could lead to systematic differences in deleterious allele frequency across the genome.

Can incorporating genotyping data into efficacy estimators improve efficiency of early phase malaria vaccine trials?

BACKGROUND

Early phase malaria vaccine field trials typically measure malaria infection by PCR or thick blood smear microscopy performed on serially sampled blood. Vaccine efficacy (VE) is the proportion reduction in an endpoint due to vaccination and is often calculated as VEHR = 1-hazard ratio or VERR = 1-risk ratio. Genotyping information can distinguish different clones and distinguish multiple infections over time, potentially increasing statistical power. This paper investigates two alternative VE endpoints incorporating genotyping information: VEmolFOI, the vaccine-induced proportion reduction in incidence of new clones acquired over time, and VEC, the vaccine-induced proportion reduction in mean number of infecting clones per exposure.

METHODS

Power of VEmolFOI and VEC was compared to that of VEHR and VERR by simulations and analytic derivations, and the four VE methods were applied to three data sets: a Phase 3 trial of RTS,S malaria vaccine in 6912 African infants, a Phase 2 trial of PfSPZ Vaccine in 80 Burkina Faso adults, and a trial comparing Plasmodium vivax incidence in 466 Papua New Guinean children after receiving chloroquine + artemether lumefantrine with or without primaquine (as these VE methods can also quantify effects of other prevention measures). By destroying hibernating liver-stage P. vivax, primaquine reduces subsequent reactivations after treatment completion.

RESULTS

In the trial of RTS,S vaccine, a significantly reduced number of clones at first infection was observed, but this was not the case in trials of PfSPZ Vaccine or primaquine, although the PfSPZ trial lacked power to show a reduction. Resampling smaller data sets from the large RTS,S trial to simulate phase 2 trials showed modest power gains from VEC compared to VEHR for data like those from RTS,S, but VEC is less powerful than VEHR for trials in which the number of clones at first infection is not reduced. VEmolFOI was most powerful in model-based simulations, but only the primaquine trial collected enough serial samples to precisely estimate VEmolFOI. The primaquine VEmolFOI estimate decreased after most control arm liver-stage infections reactivated (which mathematically resembles a waning vaccine), preventing VEmolFOI from improving power.

CONCLUSIONS

The power gain from the genotyping methods depends on the context. Because input parameters for early phase power calculations are often uncertain, these estimators are not recommended as primary endpoints for small trials unless supported by targeted data analysis.

TRIAL REGISTRATIONS

NCT00866619, NCT02663700, NCT02143934.

Drug selection pressure and fitness cost for artemether-resistant Plasmodium berghei ANKA parasites in vivo

BACKGROUND

The clinical use of artemisinin-based combination therapies is threatened by increasing failure rates due to the emergence and spread of multiple drug resistance genes in most human Plasmodium strains. The aim of this study was to generate artemether-resistant (AMR) parasites from Plasmodium berghei ANKA (AMS), and determine their fitness cost.

METHODS

Artemether resistance was generated by increasing drug pressure doses gradually for 9 months. Effective doses (ED50 and ED90) were determined using the 4-day suppressive test, and the indices of resistance (I) at 50% and 90% (I50 and I90) were determined using the ratio of either ED50 or ED90 of AMR to AMS, respectively. The stability of the AMR parasites was evaluated by: five drug-free passages (5DFPs), 3 months of cryopreservation (CP), and drug-free serial passages (DFSPs) for 4 months. Analysis of variance was used to compare differences in growth rates between AMR and AMS with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

ED50 and ED90 of AMS were 0.61 and 3.43 mg/kg/day respectively. I50 and I90 after 20 cycles of artemether selection pressure were 19.67 and 21.45, respectively; 5DFP values were 39.16 and 15.27, respectively; 3-month CP values were 29.36 and 10.79, respectively; and DFSP values were 31.34 and 12.29, respectively. The mean parasitaemia value of AMR (24.70% ± 3.60) relative to AMS (37.66% ± 3.68) at Day 7 post infection after DFSPs revealed a fitness cost of 34.41%.

CONCLUSION

A moderately stable AMRP. berghei line was generated. Known and unknown mutations may be involved in modulating artemether resistance, and therefore molecular investigations are recommended.

Evolutionary rescue on genotypic fitness landscapes

Populations facing adverse environments, novel pathogens or invasive competitors may be destined to extinction if they are unable to adapt rapidly. Quantitative predictions of the probability of survival through adaptation, evolutionary rescue, have been previously developed for one of the most natural and well-studied mappings from an organism's traits to its fitness, Fisher's geometric model (FGM). While FGM assumes that all possible trait values are accessible via mutation, in many applications only a finite set of rescue mutations will be available, such as mutations conferring resistance to a parasite, predator or toxin. We predict the probability of evolutionary rescue, via de novo mutation, when this underlying genetic structure is included. We find that rescue probability is always reduced when its genetic basis is taken into account. Unlike other known features of the genotypic FGM, however, the probability of rescue increases monotonically with the number of available mutations and approaches the behaviour of the classical FGM as the number of available mutations approaches infinity.

Multispecies coinfections and presence of antibiotics shape resistance and fitness costs in a pathogenic bacterium

Increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a challenge for treatment of bacterial diseases. In real life, bacterial infections are typically embedded within complex multispecies communities and influenced by the environment, which can shape costs and benefits of AMR. However, knowledge of such interactions and their implications for AMR in vivo is limited. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated fitness-related traits of a pathogenic bacterium (Flavobacterium columnare) in its fish host, capturing the effects of bacterial antibiotic resistance, coinfections between bacterial strains and metazoan parasites (fluke Diplostomum pseudospathaceum) and antibiotic exposure. We quantified real-time replication and virulence of sensitive and resistant bacteria and demonstrate that both bacteria can benefit from coinfection in terms of persistence and replication, depending on the coinfecting partner and antibiotic presence. We also show that antibiotics can benefit resistant bacteria by increasing bacterial replication under coinfection with flukes. These results emphasize the importance of diverse, inter-kingdom coinfection interactions and antibiotic exposure in shaping costs and benefits of AMR, supporting their role as significant contributors to spread and long-term persistence of resistance.

Dynamics of parasite growth in genetically diverse Plasmodium falciparum isolates

Multiple parasite lineages with different proliferation rates or fitness may coexist within a clinical malaria isolate, resulting in complex growth interactions and variations in phenotype. To elucidate the dynamics of parasite growth in multiclonal isolates, we measured growth rates (GRs) of three Plasmodium falciparum Cambodian isolates, including IPC_3445 (MRA-1236), IPC_5202 (MRA-1240), IPC_6403 (MRA-1285), and parasite lineages previously cloned from each of these isolates by limiting dilution. Following synchronization, in vitro cultures of each parasite line were maintained over four consecutive asexual cycles (192 h), with thin smears prepared at each 48-h cycle to estimate GR and fold change in parasitemia (FCP). Cell cycle time (CCT), the duration it takes for ring-stage parasites to develop into mature schizonts, was measured by monitoring the development of 0-3-h post-invasion rings for up to 52 h post-incubation. Laboratory lines 3D7 (MRA-102) and Dd2 (MRA-150) were used as controls. Significant differences in GR, FCP, and CCT were observed between parasite isolates and clonal lineages from each isolate. The parasite lines studied here have well-defined growth phenotypes and will facilitate basic malaria research and development of novel malaria interventions. These lines are available to malaria researchers through the MR4 collection of NIAID's BEI Resources Program.

Evolution-Informed Strategies for Combating Drug Resistance in Cancer

The ever-changing nature of cancer poses the most difficult challenge oncologists face today. Cancer's remarkable adaptability has inspired many to work toward understanding the evolutionary dynamics that underlie this disease in hopes of learning new ways to fight it. Eco-evolutionary dynamics of a tumor are not accounted for in most standard treatment regimens, but exploiting them would help us combat treatment-resistant effectively. Here, we outline several notable efforts to exploit these dynamics and circumvent drug resistance in cancer.

Hygiene may attenuate selection for antibiotic resistance by changing microbial community structure

Good hygiene, in both health care and the community, is central to containing the rise of antibiotic resistance, as well as to infection control more generally. But despite the well-known importance, the ecological mechanisms by which hygiene (or other transmission control measures) affect the evolution of resistance remain to be elucidated. Using metacommunity ecology theory, we here propose that hygiene attenuates the effect of antibiotic selection pressure. Specifically, we predict that hygiene limits the scope for antibiotics to induce competitive release of resistant bacteria within treated hosts, and that this is due to an effect of hygiene on the distribution of resistant and sensitive strains in the host population. We show this in a mathematical model of bacterial metacommunity dynamics, and test the results against data on antibiotic resistance, antibiotic treatment, and the use of alcohol-based hand rub in long-term care facilities. The data are consistent with hand rub use attenuating the resistance promoting effect of antibiotic treatment. Our results underscore the importance of hygiene, and point to a concrete way to weaken the link between antibiotic use and increasing resistance.

Range-Bounded Adaptive Therapy in Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Adaptive therapy with abiraterone acetate (AA), whereby treatment is cycled on and off, has been presented as an alternative to continuous therapy for metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). It is hypothesized that cycling through treatment allows sensitive cells to competitively suppress resistant cells, thereby increasing the amount of time that treatment is effective. It has been proposed that there exists a subset of patients for whom this competition can be enhanced through slight modifications. Here, we investigate how adaptive AA can be modified to extend time to progression using a simple mathematical model of stem cell, non-stem cell, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) dynamics. The model is calibrated to longitudinal PSA data from 16 mCRPC patients undergoing adaptive AA in a pilot clinical study at Moffitt Cancer Center. Model parameters are then used to simulate range-bounded adaptive therapy (RBAT) whereby treatment is modulated to maintain PSA levels between pre-determined patient-specific bounds. Model simulations of RBAT are compared to the clinically applied adaptive therapy and show that RBAT can further extend time to progression, while reducing the cumulative dose patients received in 11/16 patients. Simulations also show that the cumulative dose can be reduced by up to 40% under RBAT. Through small modifications to the conventional adaptive therapy design, our study demonstrates that RBAT offers the opportunity to improve patient care, particularly in those patients who do not respond well to conventional adaptive therapy.

Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium falciparum and Distribution of Antimalarial Drug Resistance Mutations in Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Infections

Malaria control relies on passive case detection, and this strategy fails detecting asymptomatic infections. In addition, infections in endemic areas harbor multiple parasite genotypes that could affect case management and malaria epidemiology.

Measuring competitive exclusion in non-small cell lung cancer

In this study, we experimentally measure the frequency-dependent interactions between a gefitinib-resistant non-small cell lung cancer population and its sensitive ancestor via the evolutionary game assay. We show that cost of resistance is insufficient to accurately predict competitive exclusion and that frequency-dependent growth rate measurements are required. Using frequency-dependent growth rate data, we then show that gefitinib treatment results in competitive exclusion of the ancestor, while the absence of treatment results in a likely, but not guaranteed, exclusion of the resistant strain. Then, using simulations, we demonstrate that incorporating ecological growth effects can influence the predicted extinction time. In addition, we show that higher drug concentrations may not lead to the optimal reduction in tumor burden. Together, these results highlight the potential importance of frequency-dependent growth rate data for understanding competing populations, both in the laboratory and as we translate adaptive therapy regimens to the clinic.

Low Complexity of Infection Is Associated With Molecular Persistence of Plasmodium falciparum in Kenya and Tanzania

Background

Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) is a threat to malaria elimination. ACT-resistance in Asia raises concerns for emergence of resistance in Africa. While most data show high efficacy of ACT regimens in Africa, there have been reports describing declining efficacy, as measured by both clinical failure and prolonged parasite clearance times.

Methods

Three hundred children aged 2-10 years with uncomplicated P. falciparum infection were enrolled in Kenya and Tanzania after receiving treatment with artemether-lumefantrine. Blood samples were taken at 0, 24, 48, and 72 h, and weekly thereafter until 28 days post-treatment. Parasite and host genetics were assessed, as well as clinical, behavioral, and environmental characteristics, and host anti-malarial serologic response.

Results

While there was a broad range of clearance rates at both sites, 85% and 96% of Kenyan and Tanzanian samples, respectively, were qPCR-positive but microscopy-negative at 72 h post-treatment. A greater complexity of infection (COI) was negatively associated with qPCR-detectable parasitemia at 72 h (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.53-0.94), and a greater baseline parasitemia was marginally associated with qPCR-detectable parasitemia (1,000 parasites/uL change, OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03). Demographic, serological, and host genotyping characteristics showed no association with qPCR-detectable parasitemia at 72 h. Parasite haplotype-specific clearance slopes were grouped around the mean with no association detected between specific haplotypes and slower clearance rates.

Conclusions

Identifying risk factors for slow clearing P. falciparum infections, such as COI, are essential for ongoing surveillance of ACT treatment failure in Kenya, Tanzania, and more broadly in sub-Saharan Africa.

Microbial Interspecies Interactions and Their Impact on the Emergence and Spread of Antimicrobial Resistance

Bacteria are social organisms that commonly live in dense communities surrounded by a multitude of other species. The competitive and cooperative interactions between these species not only shape the bacterial communities but also influence their susceptibility to antimicrobials. While several studies have shown that mixed-species communities are more tolerant toward antimicrobials than their monospecies counterparts, only limited empirical data are currently available on how interspecies interactions influence resistance development. We here propose a theoretic framework outlining the potential impact of interspecies social behavior on different aspects of resistance development. We identify factors by which interspecies interactions might influence resistance evolution and distinguish between their effect on (a) the emergence of a resistant mutant and (b) the spread of this resistance throughout the population. Our analysis indicates that considering the social life of bacteria is imperative to the rational design of more effective antibiotic treatment strategies with a minimal hazard for resistance development. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Microbiology, Volume 76 is September 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Malaria chemoprevention and drug resistance: a review of the literature and policy implications

Chemoprevention strategies reduce malaria disease and death, but the efficacy of anti-malarial drugs used for chemoprevention is perennially threatened by drug resistance. This review examines the current impact of chemoprevention on the emergence and spread of drug resistant malaria, and the impact of drug resistance on the efficacy of each of the chemoprevention strategies currently recommended by the World Health Organization, namely, intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp); intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi); seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC); and mass drug administration (MDA) for the reduction of disease burden in emergency situations. While the use of drugs to prevent malaria often results in increased prevalence of genetic mutations associated with resistance, malaria chemoprevention interventions do not inevitably lead to meaningful increases in resistance, and even high rates of resistance do not necessarily impair chemoprevention efficacy. At the same time, it can reasonably be anticipated that, over time, as drugs are widely used, resistance will generally increase and efficacy will eventually be lost. Decisions about whether, where and when chemoprevention strategies should be deployed or changed will continue to need to be made on the basis of imperfect evidence, but practical considerations such as prevalence patterns of resistance markers can help guide policy recommendations.

Potential Emergence of Plasmodium Resistance to Artemisinin Induced by the Use of Artemisia annua for Malaria and COVID-19 Prevention in Sub-African Region

Plasmodium resistance to antimalarial drugs is an obstacle to the elimination of malaria in endemic areas. This situation is particularly dramatic for Africa, which accounts for nearly 92% of malaria cases worldwide. Drug pressure has been identified as a key factor in the emergence of antimalarial drug resistance. Indeed, this pressure is favoured by several factors, including the use of counterfeit forms of antimalarials, inadequate prescription controls, poor adherence to treatment regimens, dosing errors, and the increasing use of other forms of unapproved antimalarials. This resistance has led to the replacement of chloroquine (CQ) by artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) which are likely to become ineffective in the coming years due to the uncontrolled use of Artemisia annua in the sub-Saharan African region for malaria prevention and COVID-19. The use of Artemisia annua for the prevention of malaria and COVID-19 could be an important factor in the emergence of resistance to Artemisinin-based combination therapies.

Parasite co-infection: an ecological, molecular and experimental perspective

Laboratory studies of pathogens aim to limit complexity in order to disentangle the important parameters contributing to an infection. However, pathogens rarely exist in isolation, and hosts may sustain co-infections with multiple disease agents. These interact with each other and with the host immune system dynamically, with disease outcomes affected by the composition of the community of infecting pathogens, their order of colonization, competition for niches and nutrients, and immune modulation. While pathogen-immune interactions have been detailed elsewhere, here we examine the use of ecological and experimental studies of trypanosome and malaria infections to discuss the interactions between pathogens in mammal hosts and arthropod vectors, including recently developed laboratory models for co-infection. The implications of pathogen co-infection for disease therapy are also discussed.

Intermittent radiotherapy as alternative treatment for recurrent high grade glioma: a modeling study based on longitudinal tumor measurements

Recurrent high grade glioma patients face a poor prognosis for which no curative treatment option currently exists. In contrast to prescribing high dose hypofractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (HFSRT, [Formula: see text] Gy [Formula: see text] 5 in daily fractions) with debulking intent, we suggest a personalized treatment strategy to improve tumor control by delivering high dose intermittent radiation treatment (iRT, [Formula: see text] Gy [Formula: see text] 1 every 6 weeks). We performed a simulation analysis to compare HFSRT, iRT and iRT plus boost ([Formula: see text] Gy [Formula: see text] 3 in daily fractions at time of progression) based on a mathematical model of tumor growth, radiation response and patient-specific evolution of resistance to additional treatments (pembrolizumab and bevacizumab). Model parameters were fitted from tumor growth curves of 16 patients enrolled in the phase 1 NCT02313272 trial that combined HFSRT with bevacizumab and pembrolizumab. Then, iRT +/- boost treatments were simulated and compared to HFSRT based on time to tumor regrowth. The modeling results demonstrated that iRT + boost(- boost) treatment was equal or superior to HFSRT in 15(11) out of 16 cases and that patients that remained responsive to pembrolizumab and bevacizumab would benefit most from iRT. Time to progression could be prolonged through the application of additional, intermittently delivered fractions. iRT hence provides a promising treatment option for recurrent high grade glioma patients for prospective clinical evaluation.

Species interactions drive the spread of ampicillin resistance in human-associated gut microbiota

Background and objectives

Slowing the spread of antimicrobial resistance is urgent if we are to continue treating infectious diseases successfully. There is increasing evidence microbial interactions between and within species are significant drivers of resistance. On one hand, cross-protection by resistant genotypes can shelter susceptible microbes from the adverse effects of antibiotics, reducing the advantage of resistance. On the other hand, antibiotic-mediated killing of susceptible genotypes can alleviate competition and allow resistant strains to thrive (competitive release). Here, by observing interactions both within and between species in microbial communities sampled from humans, we investigate the potential role for cross-protection and competitive release in driving the spread of ampicillin resistance in the ubiquitous gut commensal and opportunistic pathogen Escherichia coli.

Methodology

Using anaerobic gut microcosms comprising E.coli embedded within gut microbiota sampled from humans, we tested for cross-protection and competitive release both within and between species in response to the clinically important beta-lactam antibiotic ampicillin.

Results

While cross-protection gave an advantage to antibiotic-susceptible E.coli in standard laboratory conditions (well-mixed LB medium), competitive release instead drove the spread of antibiotic-resistant E.coli in gut microcosms (ampicillin boosted growth of resistant bacteria in the presence of susceptible strains).

Conclusions and implications

Competition between resistant strains and other members of the gut microbiota can restrict the spread of ampicillin resistance. If antibiotic therapy alleviates competition with resident microbes by killing susceptible strains, as here, microbiota-based interventions that restore competition could be a key for slowing the spread of resistance.

Lay Summary

Slowing the spread of global antibiotic resistance is an urgent task. In this paper, we ask how interactions between microbial species drive the spread of resistance. We show that antibiotic killing of susceptible microbes can free up resources for resistant microbes and allow them to thrive. Therefore, we should consider microbes in light of their social interactions to understand the spread of resistance.

Modeling the effect of vaccination on selection for antibiotic resistance in Streptococcus pneumonia e

Vaccines against bacterial pathogens can protect recipients from becoming infected with potentially antibiotic-resistant pathogens. However, by altering the selective balance between antibiotic-sensitive and antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains, vaccines may also suppress-or spread-antibiotic resistance among unvaccinated individuals. Predicting the outcome of vaccination requires knowing what drives selection for drug-resistant bacterial pathogens and what maintains the circulation of both antibiotic-sensitive and antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria. To address this question, we used mathematical modeling and data from 2007 on penicillin consumption and penicillin nonsusceptibility in Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) invasive isolates from 27 European countries. We show that the frequency of penicillin resistance in S. pneumoniae can be explained by between-host diversity in antibiotic use, heritable diversity in pneumococcal carriage duration, or frequency-dependent selection brought about by within-host competition between antibiotic-resistant and antibiotic-sensitive S. pneumoniae strains. We used our calibrated models to predict the impact of non-serotype-specific pneumococcal vaccination upon the prevalence of S. pneumoniae carriage, incidence of disease, and frequency of S. pneumoniae antibiotic resistance. We found that the relative strength and directionality of competition between drug-resistant and drug-sensitive pneumococcal strains was the most important determinant of whether vaccination would promote, inhibit, or have little effect upon the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Last, we show that country-specific differences in pathogen transmission substantially altered the predicted impact of vaccination, highlighting that policies for managing antibiotic resistance with vaccines must be tailored to a specific pathogen and setting.

Immune selection suppresses the emergence of drug resistance in malaria parasites but facilitates its spread

Although drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum typically evolves in regions of low transmission, resistance spreads readily following introduction to regions with a heavier disease burden. This suggests that the origin and the spread of resistance are governed by different processes, and that high transmission intensity specifically impedes the origin. Factors associated with high transmission, such as highly immune hosts and competition within genetically diverse infections, are associated with suppression of resistant lineages within hosts. However, interactions between these factors have rarely been investigated and the specific relationship between adaptive immunity and selection for resistance has not been explored. Here, we developed a multiscale, agent-based model of Plasmodium parasites, hosts, and vectors to examine how host and parasite dynamics shape the evolution of resistance in populations with different transmission intensities. We found that selection for antigenic novelty (“immune selection”) suppressed the evolution of resistance in high transmission settings. We show that high levels of population immunity increased the strength of immune selection relative to selection for resistance. As a result, immune selection delayed the evolution of resistance in high transmission populations by allowing novel, sensitive lineages to remain in circulation at the expense of the spread of a resistant lineage.

In contrast, in low transmission settings, we observed that resistant strains were able to sweep to high population prevalence without interference. Additionally, we found that the relationship between immune selection and resistance changed when resistance was widespread. Once resistance was common enough to be found on many antigenic backgrounds, immune selection stably maintained resistant parasites in the population by allowing them to proliferate, even in untreated hosts, when resistance was linked to a novel epitope. Our results suggest that immune selection plays a role in the global pattern of resistance evolution.

Drug resistance in the malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, presents an ongoing public health challenge, but aspects of its evolution are poorly understood. Although antimalarial resistance is common worldwide, it can typically be traced to just a handful of evolutionary origins. Counterintuitively, although Sub Saharan Africa bears 90% of the global malaria burden, resistance typically originates in regions where transmission intensity is low. In high transmission regions, infections are genetically diverse, and hosts have significant standing adaptive immunity, both of which are known to suppress the frequency of resistance within infections. However, interactions between immune-driven selection, transmission intensity, and resistance have not been investigated. Using a multiscale, agent-based model, we found that high transmission intensity slowed the evolution of resistance via its effect on host population immunity. High host immunity strengthened selection for antigenic novelty, interfering with selection for resistance and allowing sensitive lineages to suppress resistant lineages in untreated hosts. However, once resistance was common in the circulating parasite population, immune selection maintained it in the population at a high prevalence. Our findings provide a novel explanation for observations about the origin of resistance and suggest that adaptive immunity is a critical component of selection.

Assessment of cooperative antibiotic resistance of Salmonella Typhimurium within heterogeneous population

This study was designed to investigate the cooperative resistance in the mixed culture of antibiotic-sensitive and antibiotic-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium. Strains of S. Typhimurium ATCC 19585 (ST^S) and clinically isolated antibiotic-resistant S. Typhimurium CCARM 8009 (ST^R) grown in single and mixture with 1 × MIC ceftriaxone (CEF) were used to determine the viability, β-lactamase activity, and gene expression. The MIC₅₀ values of ST^R to CEF was increased by more than 5-fold with increasing inoculum densities from 10² to 10⁷ CFU/mL. ST^S was resistant to 1 × MIC CEF in the mixed culture of ST^S and ST^R, showing the more than 10⁸ CFU/mL after 20 h of incubation at 37 °C. The highest β-lactamase activity was 18 μmol/min/mL in the mixed culture, corresponding to the highest relative expression of β-lactamase-related genes (bla_TEM). These results shed new light on the cooperative resistance of antibiotic-sensitive bacteria within a heterogeneous population including β-lactamase-producing bacteria.

The Use and Underuse of Model Systems in Infectious Disease Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

AbstractEver since biologists began studying the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases (EEID), laboratory-based model systems have been important for developing and testing theory. Yet what EEID researchers mean by the term "model systems" and what they want from them is unclear. This uncertainty hinders our ability to maximally exploit these systems, identify knowledge gaps, and establish effective new model systems. Here, we borrow a definition of model systems from the biomolecular sciences to assess how EEID researchers are (and are not) using 10 key model systems. According to this definition, model systems in EEID are not being used to their fullest and, in fact, cannot even be considered model systems. Research using these systems consistently addresses only two of the three fundamental processes that underlie disease dynamics-transmission and disease, but not recovery. Furthermore, studies tend to focus on only a few scales of biological organization that matter for disease ecology and evolution. Moreover, the field lacks an infrastructure to perform comparative analyses. We aim to begin a discussion of what we want from model systems, which would further progress toward a thorough, holistic understanding of EEID.

Dissection of haplotype-specific drug response phenotypes in multiclonal malaria isolates

Natural infections of Plasmodium falciparum, the parasite responsible for the deadliest form of human malaria, often comprise multiple parasite lineages (haplotypes). Multiclonal parasite isolates may exhibit variable phenotypes including different drug susceptibility profiles over time due to the presence of multiple haplotypes. To test this hypothesis, three P. falciparum Cambodian isolates IPC_3445 (MRA-1236), IPC_5202 (MRA-1240) and IPC_6403 (MRA-1285) suspected to be multiclonal were cloned by limiting dilution, and the resulting clones genotyped at 24 highly polymorphic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Isolates harbored up to three constituent haplotypes, and exhibited significant variability (p < 0.05) in susceptibility to chloroquine, mefloquine, artemisinin and piperaquine as measured by half maximal drug inhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) assays and parasite survival assays, which measure viability following exposure to pharmacologically relevant concentrations of antimalarial drugs. The IC₅₀ of the most abundant haplotype frequently reflected that of the uncloned parental isolate, suggesting that a single haplotype dominates the antimalarial susceptibility profile and masks the effect of minor frequency haplotypes. These results indicate that phenotypic variability in parasite isolates is often due to the presence of multiple haplotypes. Depending on intended end-use, clinical isolates should be cloned to yield single parasite lineages with well-defined phenotypes and genotypes. The availability of such standardized clonal parasite lineages through NIAID's BEI Resources program will aid research directed towards the development of diagnostics and interventions including drugs against malaria.

The Antibiotic Dosage of Fastest Resistance Evolution: gene amplifications underpinning the inverted-U

To determine the dosage at which antibiotic resistance evolution is most rapid, we treated Escherichia coli in vitro, deploying the antibiotic erythromycin at dosages ranging from zero to high. Adaptation was fastest just below erythromycin’s minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) and genotype-phenotype correlations determined from whole genome sequencing revealed the molecular basis: simultaneous selection for copy number variation in three resistance mechanisms which exhibited an “inverted-U” pattern of dose-dependence, as did several insertion sequences and an integron. Many genes did not conform to this pattern, however, reflecting changes in selection as dose increased: putative media adaptation polymorphisms at zero antibiotic dosage gave way to drug target (ribosomal RNA operon) amplification at mid dosages whereas prophage-mediated drug efflux amplifications dominated at the highest dosages. All treatments exhibited E. coli increases in the copy number of efflux operons acrAB and emrE at rates that correlated with increases in population density. For strains where the inverted-U was no longer observed following the genetic manipulation of acrAB, it could be recovered by prolonging the antibiotic treatment at subMIC dosages.

Adaptive Therapy for Metastatic Melanoma: Predictions from Patient Calibrated Mathematical Models

Adaptive therapy is an evolution-based treatment approach that aims to maintain tumor volume by employing minimum effective drug doses or timed drug holidays. For successful adaptive therapy outcomes, it is critical to find the optimal timing of treatment switch points in a patient-specific manner. Here we develop a combination of mathematical models that examine interactions between drug-sensitive and resistant cells to facilitate melanoma adaptive therapy dosing and switch time points. The first model assumes genetically fixed drug-sensitive and -resistant popul tions that compete for limited resources. The second model considers phenotypic switching between drug-sensitive and -resistant cells. We calibrated each model to fit melanoma patient biomarker changes over time and predicted patient-specific adaptive therapy schedules. Overall, the models predict that adaptive therapy would have delayed time to progression by 6-25 months compared to continuous therapy with dose rates of 6-74% relative to continuous therapy. We identified predictive factors driving the clinical time gained by adaptive therapy, such as the number of initial sensitive cells, competitive effect, switching rate from resistant to sensitive cells, and sensitive cell growth rate. This study highlights that there is a range of potential patient-specific benefits of adaptive therapy and identifies parameters that modulate this benefit.

An adjunctive therapy administered with an antibiotic prevents enrichment of antibiotic-resistant clones of a colonizing opportunistic pathogen

A key challenge in antibiotic stewardship is figuring out how to use antibiotics therapeutically without promoting the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Here, we demonstrate proof of concept for an adjunctive therapy that allows intravenous antibiotic treatment without driving the evolution and onward transmission of resistance. We repurposed the FDA-approved bile acid sequestrant cholestyramine, which we show binds the antibiotic daptomycin, as an 'anti-antibiotic' to disable systemically-administered daptomycin reaching the gut. We hypothesized that adjunctive cholestyramine could enable therapeutic daptomycin treatment in the bloodstream, while preventing transmissible resistance emergence in opportunistic pathogens colonizing the gastrointestinal tract. We tested this idea in a mouse model of Enterococcus faecium gastrointestinal tract colonization. In mice treated with daptomycin, adjunctive cholestyramine therapy reduced the fecal shedding of daptomycin-resistant E. faecium by up to 80-fold. These results provide proof of concept for an approach that could reduce the spread of antibiotic resistance for important hospital pathogens.

Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment

We investigate the evolutionary rescue of a microbial population in a gradually deteriorating environment, through a combination of analytical calculations and stochastic simulations. We consider a population destined for extinction in the absence of mutants, which can survive only if mutants sufficiently adapted to the new environment arise and fix. We show that mutants that appear later during the environment deterioration have a higher probability to fix. The rescue probability of the population increases with a sigmoidal shape when the product of the carrying capacity and of the mutation probability increases. Furthermore, we find that rescue becomes more likely for smaller population sizes and/or mutation probabilities if the environment degradation is slower, which illustrates the key impact of the rapidity of environment degradation on the fate of a population. We also show that our main conclusions are robust across various types of adaptive mutants, including specialist and generalist ones, as well as mutants modeling antimicrobial resistance evolution. We further express the average time of appearance of the mutants that do rescue the population and the average extinction time of those that do not. Our methods can be applied to other situations with continuously variable fitnesses and population sizes, and our analytical predictions are valid in the weak-to-moderate mutation regime.

The effect of competition on the control of invading plant pathogens

New invading pathogen strains must compete with endemic pathogen strains to emerge and spread. As disease control measures are often non-specific, that is, they do not distinguish between strains, applying control not only affects the invading pathogen strain but the endemic as well. We hypothesize that the control of the invasive strain could be compromised due to the non-specific nature of the control.A spatially explicit model, describing the East African cassava mosaic virus-Uganda strain (EACMV-UG) outbreak, is used to evaluate methods of controlling both disease incidence and spread of invading pathogen strains in pathosystems with and without an endemic pathogen strain present.We find that while many newly introduced or intensified control measures (such as resistant cultivars or roguing) decrease the expected incidence, they have the unintended consequence of increasing, or at least not reducing, the speed with which the invasive pathogen spreads geographically. We identify the controls that cause this effect and methods in which these controls may be applied to prevent it.We found that the spatial spread of the invading strain is chiefly governed by the incidence at the wave front. Control can therefore be applied, or intensified, once the wave front has passed without increasing the pathogen's rate of spread.When trade of planting material occurs, it is possible that the planting material is already infected. The only forms of control in this study that reduces the speed of geographic spread, regardless of the presence of an endemic strain, are those that reduce the amount of trade and the distance over which trade takes place. Synthesis and applications. The best control strategy depends on the presence of competing endemic strains. Applying or intensifying the control can slow the rate of spread when absent but increase it if present. Imposing trade restrictions before the epidemic has reached a given area and intensifying other control methods only when the wave front has passed is the most effective way of both slowing down spread and controlling incidence when a competing endemic strain is present and is the safest approach when its presence is unknown.

Effect of drug dose and timing of treatment on the emergence of drug resistance in vivo in a malaria model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

There is a significant interest in identifying clinically effective drug treatment regimens that minimize the de novo evolution of antimicrobial resistance in pathogen populations. However, in vivo studies that vary treatment regimens and directly measure drug resistance evolution are rare. Here, we experimentally investigate the role of drug dose and treatment timing on resistance evolution in an animal model.

METHODOLOGY

In a series of experiments, we measured the emergence of atovaquone-resistant mutants of Plasmodium chabaudi in laboratory mice, as a function of dose or timing of treatment (day post-infection) with the antimalarial drug atovaquone.

RESULTS

The likelihood of high-level resistance emergence increased with atovaquone dose. When varying the timing of treatment, treating either very early or late in infection reduced the risk of resistance. When we varied starting inoculum, resistance was more likely at intermediate inoculum sizes, which correlated with the largest population sizes at time of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

(i) Higher doses do not always minimize resistance emergence and can promote the emergence of high-level resistance. (ii) Altering treatment timing affects the risk of resistance emergence, likely due to the size of the population at the time of treatment, although we did not test the effect of immunity whose influence may have been important in the case of late treatment. (iii) Finding the 'right' dose and 'right' time to maximize clinical gains and limit resistance emergence can vary depending on biological context and was non-trivial even in our simplified experiments.

LAY SUMMARY

In a mouse model of malaria, higher drug doses led to increases in drug resistance. The timing of drug treatment also impacted resistance emergence, likely due to the size of the population at the time of treatment.

Antibiotics can be used to contain drug-resistant bacteria by maintaining sufficiently large sensitive populations

Standard infectious disease practice calls for aggressive drug treatment that rapidly eliminates the pathogen population before resistance can emerge. When resistance is absent, this elimination strategy can lead to complete cure. However, when resistance is already present, removing drug-sensitive cells as quickly as possible removes competitive barriers that may slow the growth of resistant cells. In contrast to the elimination strategy, a containment strategy aims to maintain the maximum tolerable number of pathogens, exploiting competitive suppression to achieve chronic control. Here, we combine in vitro experiments in computer-controlled bioreactors with mathematical modeling to investigate whether containment strategies can delay failure of antibiotic treatment regimens. To do so, we measured the "escape time" required for drug-resistant Escherichia coli populations to eclipse a threshold density maintained by adaptive antibiotic dosing. Populations containing only resistant cells rapidly escape the threshold density, but we found that matched resistant populations that also contain the maximum possible number of sensitive cells could be contained for significantly longer. The increase in escape time occurs only when the threshold density-the acceptable bacterial burden-is sufficiently high, an effect that mathematical models attribute to increased competition. The findings provide decisive experimental confirmation that maintaining the maximum number of sensitive cells can be used to contain resistance when the size of the population is sufficiently large.

Prostate-specific antigen dynamics predict individual responses to intermittent androgen deprivation

Intermittent androgen deprivation therapy (IADT) is an attractive treatment for biochemically recurrent prostate cancer (PCa), whereby cycling treatment on and off can reduce cumulative dose and limit toxicities. We simulate prostate-specific antigen (PSA) dynamics, with enrichment of PCa stem-like cell (PCaSC) during treatment as a plausible mechanism of resistance evolution. Simulated PCaSC proliferation patterns correlate with longitudinal serum PSA measurements in 70 PCa patients. Learning dynamics from each treatment cycle in a leave-one-out study, model simulations predict patient-specific evolution of resistance with an overall accuracy of 89% (sensitivity = 73%, specificity = 91%). Previous studies have shown a benefit of concurrent therapies with ADT in both low- and high-volume metastatic hormone-sensitive PCa. Model simulations based on response dynamics from the first IADT cycle identify patients who would benefit from concurrent docetaxel, demonstrating the feasibility and potential value of adaptive clinical trials guided by patient-specific mathematical models of intratumoral evolutionary dynamics.

Co-transmission of Related Malaria Parasite Lineages Shapes Within-Host Parasite Diversity

In high-transmission regions, we expect parasite lineages within complex malaria infections to be unrelated due to parasite inoculations from different mosquitoes. This project was designed to test this prediction. We generated 485 single-cell genome sequences from fifteen P. falciparum malaria patients from Chikhwawa, Malawi-an area of intense transmission. Patients harbored up to seventeen unique parasite lineages. Surprisingly, parasite lineages within infections tend to be closely related, suggesting that superinfection by repeated mosquito bites is rarer than co-transmission of parasites from a single mosquito. Both closely and distantly related parasites comprise an infection, suggesting sequential transmission of complex infections between multiple hosts. We identified tetrads and reconstructed parental haplotypes, which revealed the inbred ancestry of infections and non-Mendelian inheritance. Our analysis suggests strong barriers to secondary infection and outbreeding amongst malaria parasites from a high transmission setting, providing unexpected insights into the biology and transmission of malaria.

Systematic comparison of coexistence in models of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant pathogen strains

A number of mathematical models have recently been proposed to explain empirical trends of pathogen diversity. In particular, long-term coexistence of both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant variants of a single pathogen is something of a mystery, given that simple models of pathogens competing for the same ecological niche predict competitive exclusion, and more complex models admitting coexistence require assumptions that may not be justified. Coinfection is among the candidate mechanisms to generate coexistence, as it occurs in many pathogens and provides the opportunity for strains to interact directly. Recently, coinfection and competitive release have been described as creating a form of negative frequency-dependent selection that promotes coexistence, and a range of models containing coinfection have been proposed as having generic stable coexistence of multiple strains. This abundance of new models presents the challenge of comparison and interpretation. To this end, we describe a dimensionless quantity that can be used to compare the amount of coexistence generated by different models. We focus on models that include coinfection, although this framework could be generalized to a larger class of structured models.

Mathematical modelling for antibiotic resistance control policy: do we know enough?

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics remain the cornerstone of modern medicine. Yet there exists an inherent dilemma in their use: we are able to prevent harm by administering antibiotic treatment as necessary to both humans and animals, but we must be mindful of limiting the spread of resistance and safeguarding the efficacy of antibiotics for current and future generations. Policies that strike the right balance must be informed by a transparent rationale that relies on a robust evidence base.

MAIN TEXT

One way to generate the evidence base needed to inform policies for managing antibiotic resistance is by using mathematical models. These models can distil the key drivers of the dynamics of resistance transmission from complex infection and evolutionary processes, as well as predict likely responses to policy change in silico. Here, we ask whether we know enough about antibiotic resistance for mathematical modelling to robustly and effectively inform policy. We consider in turn the challenges associated with capturing antibiotic resistance evolution using mathematical models, and with translating mathematical modelling evidence into policy.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that in spite of promising advances, we lack a complete understanding of key principles. From this we advocate for priority areas of future empirical and theoretical research.

Aggressive or moderate drug therapy for infectious diseases? Trade-offs between different treatment goals at the individual and population levels

Antimicrobial resistance is one of the major public health threats of the 21st century. There is a pressing need to adopt more efficient treatment strategies in order to prevent the emergence and spread of resistant strains. The common approach is to treat patients with high drug doses, both to clear the infection quickly and to reduce the risk of de novo resistance. Recently, several studies have argued that, at least in some cases, low-dose treatments could be more suitable to reduce the within-host emergence of antimicrobial resistance. However, the choice of a drug dose may have consequences at the population level, which has received little attention so far. Here, we study the influence of the drug dose on resistance and disease management at the host and population levels. We develop a nested two-strain model and unravel trade-offs in treatment benefits between an individual and the community. We use several measures to evaluate the benefits of any dose choice. Two measures focus on the emergence of resistance, at the host level and at the population level. The other two focus on the overall treatment success: the outbreak probability and the disease burden. We find that different measures can suggest different dosing strategies. In particular, we identify situations where low doses minimize the risk of emergence of resistance at the individual level, while high or intermediate doses prove most beneficial to improve the treatment efficiency or even to reduce the risk of resistance in the population.

Rodent malaria in Gabon: Diversity and host range

Malaria parasites infect a wide range of vertebrate hosts, such as reptiles, birds and mammals (i.e., primates, ungulates, bats, and rodents). Four Plasmodium species and their subspecies infect African Muridae. Since their discoveries in the 1940s, these rodent Plasmodium species have served as biological models to explore many aspects of the biology of malaria agents and their interactions with their hosts. Despite that, surprisingly, little is known about their ecology, natural history and evolution. Most field studies on these parasites, performed from the 1940s to the early 1980s, showed that all rodent Plasmodium species infect only one main host species, the thicket rat. In the present study, we re-explored the diversity of Plasmodium parasites infecting rodent species living in peridomestic habitats in Gabon, Central Africa. Using molecular approaches, we found that at least two Plasmodium species (Plasmodium vinckei and Plasmodium yoelii) circulated among five rodent species (including the invasive species Mus musculus). This suggests that the host range of these parasites might be larger than previously considered. Our results also showed that the diversity of these parasites could be higher than currently recognized, with the discovery of a new phylogenetic lineage that could represent a new species of rodent Plasmodium.

•

Circulation of at least two Plasmodium species in multiple rodent species in Gabon.

•

African rodent Plasmodium host range is higher than previously recognized.

•

Existence of a potentially new Plasmodium species (Plasmodium sp GAB), closely related to Plasmodium yoelii.

Multiple-Strain Malaria Infection and Its Impacts on Plasmodium falciparum Resistance to Antimalarial Therapy: A Mathematical Modelling Perspective

The emergence of parasite resistance to antimalarial drugs has contributed significantly to global human mortality and morbidity due to malaria infection. The impacts of multiple-strain malarial parasite infection have further generated a lot of scientific interest. In this paper, we demonstrate, using the epidemiological model, the effects of parasite resistance and competition between the strains on the dynamics and control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The analysed model has a trivial equilibrium point which is locally asymptotically stable when the parasite's effective reproduction number is less than unity. Using contour plots, we observed that the efficacy of antimalarial drugs used, the rate of development of resistance, and the rate of infection by merozoites are the most important parameters in the multiple-strain P. falciparum infection and control model. Although the drug-resistant strain is shown to be less fit, the presence of both strains in the human host has a huge impact on the cost and success of antimalarial treatment. To reduce the emergence of resistant strains, it is vital that only effective antimalarial drugs are administered to patients in hospitals, especially in malaria-endemic regions. Our results emphasize the call for regular and strict surveillance on the use and distribution of antimalarial drugs in health facilities in malaria-endemic countries.

Within-host dynamics shape antibiotic resistance in commensal bacteria

The spread of antibiotic resistance, a major threat to human health, is poorly understood. Simple population-level models of bacterial transmission predict that above a certain rate of antibiotic consumption in a population, resistant bacteria should completely eliminate non-resistant strains, while below this threshold they should be unable to persist at all. This prediction stands at odds with empirical evidence showing that resistant and non-resistant strains coexist stably over a wide range of antibiotic consumption rates. Not knowing what drives this long-term coexistence is a barrier to developing evidence-based strategies for managing the spread of resistance. Here, we argue that competition between resistant and sensitive pathogens within individual hosts gives resistant pathogens a relative fitness benefit when they are rare, promoting coexistence between strains at the population level. To test this hypothesis, we embed mechanistically explicit within-host dynamics in a structurally neutral pathogen transmission model. Doing so allows us to reproduce patterns of resistance observed in the opportunistic pathogens Escherichia coli and Streptococcus pneumoniae across European countries and to identify factors that may shape resistance evolution in bacteria by modulating the intensity and outcomes of within-host competition.

Genetically diverse Plasmodium falciparum infections, within-host competition and symptomatic malaria in humans

There is a large genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum strains that infect people causing diverse malaria symptoms. This study was carried out to explore the effect of mixed-strain infections and the extent to which some specific P. falciparum variants are associated with particular malaria symptoms. P. falciparum isolates collected during pharmacovigilance study in Nanoro, Burkina Faso were used to determine allelic variation in two polymorphic antigens of the merozoite surface (msp1 and msp2). Overall, parasite density did not increase with additional strains, suggesting the existence of within-host competition. Parasite density was influenced by msp1 allelic families with highest parasitaemia observed in MAD20 allelic family. However, when in mixed infections with allelic family K1, MAD20 could not grow to the same levels as it would alone, suggesting competitive suppression in these mixed infections. Host age was associated with parasite density. Overall, older patients exhibited lower parasite densities than younger patients, but this effect varied with the genetic composition of the isolates for the msp1 gene. There was no effect of msp1 and msp2 allelic family variation on body temperature. Haemoglobin level was influenced by msp2 family with patients harboring the FC27 allele showing lower haemoglobin level than mono-infected individuals by the 3D7 allele. This study provides evidence that P. falciparum genetic diversity influenced the severity of particular malaria symptoms and supports the existence of within-host competition in genetically diverse P. falciparum.

Adaptive plasticity in the gametocyte conversion rate of malaria parasites

Sexually reproducing parasites, such as malaria parasites, experience a trade-off between the allocation of resources to asexual replication and the production of sexual forms. Allocation by malaria parasites to sexual forms (the conversion rate) is variable but the evolutionary drivers of this plasticity are poorly understood. We use evolutionary theory for life histories to combine a mathematical model and experiments to reveal that parasites adjust conversion rate according to the dynamics of asexual densities in the blood of the host. Our model predicts the direction of change in conversion rates that returns the greatest fitness after perturbation of asexual densities by different doses of antimalarial drugs. The loss of a high proportion of asexuals is predicted to elicit increased conversion (terminal investment), while smaller losses are managed by reducing conversion (reproductive restraint) to facilitate within-host survival and future transmission. This non-linear pattern of allocation is consistent with adaptive reproductive strategies observed in multicellular organisms. We then empirically estimate conversion rates of the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi in response to the killing of asexual stages by different doses of antimalarial drugs and forecast the short-term fitness consequences of these responses. Our data reveal the predicted non-linear pattern, and this is further supported by analyses of previous experiments that perturb asexual stage densities using drugs or within-host competition, across multiple parasite genotypes. Whilst conversion rates, across all datasets, are most strongly influenced by changes in asexual density, parasites also modulate conversion according to the availability of red blood cell resources. In summary, increasing conversion maximises short-term transmission and reducing conversion facilitates in-host survival and thus, future transmission. Understanding patterns of parasite allocation to reproduction matters because within-host replication is responsible for disease symptoms and between-host transmission determines disease spread.

Malaria parasites in the host replicate asexually and, during each replication cycle, some asexuals transform into sexual stages that enable between-host transmission. It is not understood why the rate of conversion to sexual stages varies during infections despite its importance for the severity and spread of the disease. We combined a mathematical model and experiments to show that parasites adjust conversion rates depending on changes in their in-host population size. When population sizes plummet, between-host transmission is prioritised. However, smaller losses in number elicit reproductive restraint, which facilitates in-host survival and future transmission. We show that increased and decreased conversion in response to a range of in-host environments are actually part of one continuum: a sophisticated reproductive strategy similar to that of multicellular organisms.

Intra-host dynamics of co-infecting parasite genotypes in asymptomatic malaria patients

Malaria-infected individuals often harbor mixtures of genetically distinct parasite genotypes. We studied intra-host dynamics of parasite genotypes co-infecting asymptomatic adults in an area of intense malaria transmission in Chikhwawa, Malawi. Serial blood samples (5 ml) were collected over seven consecutive days from 25 adults with asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum malaria and analyzed to determine whether a single peripheral blood sample accurately captures within-host parasite diversity. Blood samples from three of the participants were also analyzed by limiting dilution cloning and SNP genotyping of the parasite clones isolated to examine both the number and relatedness of co-infecting parasite haplotypes. We observed rapid turnover of co-infecting parasite genotypes in 88% of the individuals sampled (n = 22) such that the genetic composition of parasites infecting these individuals changed dramatically over the course of seven days of follow up. Nineteen of the 25 individuals sampled (76%) carried multiple parasite genotypes at baseline. Analysis of serial blood samples from three of the individuals revealed that they harbored 6, 12 and 17 distinct parasite haplotypes respectively. Approximately 70% of parasite haplotypes recovered from the three extensively sampled individuals were unrelated (proportion of shared alleles <83.3%) and were deemed to have primarily arisen from superinfection (inoculation of unrelated parasite haplotypes through multiple mosquito bites). The rest were related at the half-sib level or greater and were deemed to have been inoculated into individual human hosts via parasite co-transmission from single mosquito bites. These findings add further to the growing weight of evidence indicating that a single blood sample poorly captures within-host parasite diversity and underscore the importance of repeated blood sampling to accurately capture within-host parasite ecology. Our data also demonstrate a more pronounced role for parasite co-transmission in generating within-host parasite diversity in high transmission settings than previously assumed. Taken together, these findings have important implications for understanding the evolution of drug resistance, malaria transmission, parasite virulence, allocation of gametocyte sex ratios and acquisition of malaria immunity.

An ecosystem framework for understanding and treating disease

Pathogens and cancers are pervasive health risks in the human population. I argue that if we are to better understand disease and its treatment, then we need to take an ecological perspective of disease itself. I generalize and extend an emerging framework that views disease as an ecosystem and many of its components as interacting in a community. I develop the framework for biological etiological agents (BEAs) that multiply within humans—focusing on bacterial pathogens and cancers—but the framework could be extended to include other host and parasite species. I begin by describing why we need an ecosystem framework to understand disease, and the main components and interactions in bacterial and cancer disease ecosystems. Focus is then given to the BEA and how it may proceed through characteristic states, including emergence, growth, spread and regression. The framework is then applied to therapeutic interventions. Central to success is preventing BEA evasion, the best known being antibiotic resistance and chemotherapeutic resistance in cancers. With risks of evasion in mind, I propose six measures that either introduce new components into the disease ecosystem or manipulate existing ones. An ecosystem framework promises to enhance our understanding of disease, BEA and host (co)evolution, and how we can improve therapeutic outcomes.

Within-host competition can delay evolution of drug resistance in malaria

In the malaria parasite P. falciparum, drug resistance generally evolves first in low-transmission settings, such as Southeast Asia and South America. Resistance takes noticeably longer to appear in the high-transmission settings of sub-Saharan Africa, although it may spread rapidly thereafter. Here, we test the hypothesis that competitive suppression of drug-resistant parasites by drug-sensitive parasites may inhibit evolution of resistance in high-transmission settings, where mixed-strain infections are common. We employ a cross-scale model, which simulates within-host (infection) dynamics and between-host (transmission) dynamics of sensitive and resistant parasites for a population of humans and mosquitoes. Using this model, we examine the effects of transmission intensity, selection pressure, fitness costs of resistance, and cross-reactivity between strains on the establishment and spread of resistant parasites. We find that resistant parasites, introduced into the population at a low frequency, are more likely to go extinct in high-transmission settings, where drug-sensitive competitors and high levels of acquired immunity reduce the absolute fitness of the resistant parasites. Under strong selection from antimalarial drug use, however, resistance spreads faster in high-transmission settings than low-transmission ones. These contrasting results highlight the distinction between establishment and spread of resistance and suggest that the former but not the latter may be inhibited in high-transmission settings. Our results suggest that within-host competition is a key factor shaping the evolution of drug resistance in P. falciparum.

The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum has evolved resistance to most antimalarial drugs, greatly complicating treatment and control of the disease. Curiously, although sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of the global burden of malaria, the evolution of drug resistance in Africa has been markedly delayed compared to Asia and the Americas. One reason might be that, in a population in which the prevalence of infection is high, a newly emerged drug-resistant strain faces a high risk of extinction due to competition from drug-sensitive parasites that already “occupy” most of the host population. Using a mathematical model, we confirm that drug-resistant parasites face a much greater risk of extinction in a “high-transmission” setting like sub-Saharan Africa than in a “low-transmission” setting like Southeast Asia. However, we also find that when drug-resistant parasites manage to avoid extinction, their subsequent spread may be more rapid in high-transmission settings than in low-transmission settings, especially when selection is strong. These results offer a novel explanation for global patterns of drug resistance evolution in malaria and suggest a new dimension to consider in resistance prevention and containment efforts: namely, the intrinsic favorability of low- and high-transmission settings for establishment and spread of drug resistance.

The impact of within-host ecology on the fitness of a drug-resistant parasite

Background and objectives

The rate of evolution of drug resistance depends on the fitness of resistant pathogens. The fitness of resistant pathogens is reduced by competition with sensitive pathogens in untreated hosts and so enhanced by competitive release in drug-treated hosts. We set out to estimate the magnitude of those effects on a variety of fitness measures, hypothesizing that competitive suppression and competitive release would have larger impacts when resistance was rarer to begin with.

Methodology

We infected mice with varying densities of drug-resistant Plasmodium chabaudi malaria parasites in a fixed density of drug-sensitive parasites and followed infection dynamics using strain-specific quantitative PCR.

Results

Competition with susceptible parasites reduced the absolute fitness of resistant parasites by 50–100%. Drug treatment increased the absolute fitness from 2- to >10 000-fold. The ecological context and choice of fitness measure was responsible for the wide variation in those estimates. Initial population growth rates poorly predicted parasite abundance and transmission probabilities.

Conclusions and implications

(i) The sensitivity of estimates of pathogen fitness to ecological context and choice of fitness measure make it difficult to derive field-relevant estimates of the fitness costs and benefits of resistance from experimental settings. (ii) Competitive suppression can be a key force preventing resistance from emerging when it is rare, as it is when it first arises. (iii) Drug treatment profoundly affects the fitness of resistance. Resistance evolution could be slowed by developing drug use policies that consider in-host competition.

Community interactions and spatial structure shape selection on antibiotic resistant lineages

Polymicrobial interactions play an important role in shaping the outcome of antibiotic treatment, yet how multispecies communities respond to antibiotic assault is still little understood. Here we use an individual-based simulation model of microbial biofilms to investigate how competitive and mutualistic interactions between an antibiotic-resistant and a susceptible strain (or species) influence the two-lineage community response to antibiotic exposure. Our model predicts that while increasing competition and antibiotics leads to increasing competitive release of the antibiotic-resistant strain, hitting a mutualistic community of cross-feeding species with antibiotics leads to a mutualistic suppression effect where both susceptible and resistant species are harmed. We next show that the impact of antibiotics is further governed by emergent spatial feedbacks within communities. Mutualistic cross-feeding communities can rescue susceptible members by subsidizing their growth inside the biofilm despite lack of access to the nutrient-rich and high-antibiotic growing front. Moreover, we show that antibiotic detoxification by resistant cells can protect nearby susceptible cells, but such cross-protection is more effective in mutualistic communities because mutualism drives mixing of resistant and susceptible cells. In contrast, competition leads to segregation, which ultimately prevents susceptible cells to profit from detoxification. Understanding how the interplay between microbial metabolic interactions and community spatial structuring shapes the outcome of antibiotic treatment can be key to effectively leverage the power of antibiotics and promote microbiome health.

Pathogens -microorganisms that make us sick- often live within dynamic and complex multispecies communities, where they may not only compete for limiting resources but also exchange beneficial resources or services with other resident species. While antibiotics are commonly used to get rid of such harmful microbes, the community-wide effects of antibiotic treatment and its consequences for antibiotic resistance are still not well understood. How do competitive or mutually beneficial interactions between antibiotic resistant and susceptible species influence community resistance to antibiotics? Here we investigate this question using a computational model. We find that antibiotic exposure favours the resistant lineage when resistant and susceptible strains are competitors but harms both types when they are mutualists. With antibiotic-detoxifying resistant cells, cross-protection of susceptible cells is more effective in mutualistic communities because mutualism drives mixing of susceptible and resistant cells. In contrast, competition leads to their segregation, precluding susceptible cells to profit from their competitor’s local detoxification. Our findings highlight that knowing not only what species are present but also how they interact with each other and arrange themselves in space is central to understanding antibiotic resistance and to informing the development of strategies that promote microbiome health.

Putting evolution in elimination: Winning our ongoing battle with evolving malaria mosquitoes and parasites

Since 2000, the world has made significant progress in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality, and several countries in Africa, South America and South-East Asia are working hard to eliminate the disease. These elimination efforts continue to rely heavily on antimalarial drugs and insecticide-based interventions, which remain the cornerstones of malaria treatment and prevention. However, resistance has emerged against nearly every antimalarial drug and insecticide that is available. In this review we discuss the evolutionary consequences of the way we currently implement antimalarial interventions, which is leading to resistance and may ultimately lead to control failure, but also how evolutionary principles can be applied to extend the lifespan of current and novel interventions. A greater understanding of the general evolutionary principles that are at the core of emerging resistance is urgently needed if we are to develop improved resistance management strategies with the ultimate goal to achieve a malaria-free world.