Colloquium paper: extinction as the loss of evolutionary history

Historical DNA solves century-old mystery on sessility in freshwater gastropods

Extinction rates are increasing unabatedly but resources available for conservation action are limited. Therefore, some conservationists are pushing for ecology- and evolution-based conservation choices, prioritizing taxa with phylogenetic and trait-based originality. Extinction of original taxa may result in a disproportionate loss of evolutionary innovations and potentially prevent transformative changes in living systems. Here, we generated historical DNA data from an almost 120-year-old syntype of the enigmatic sessile snail Helicostoa sinensis from the Three Gorges region of the Yangtze River (PR China), using a next-generation sequencing protocol developed for ancient DNA. In a broader phylogenetic context, we assessed the phylogenetic and trait-based originality of this enigmatic taxon to solve the century-old puzzle of sessility in freshwater gastropods. Our multi-locus data confirm the phylogenetic and trait-based originality of H. sinensis. It is an ultra-rare, subfamily-level taxon (Helicostoinae stat. nov.) within the family Bithyniidae, which exhibits the evolutionary innovation of sessility. While we conservatively classify H. sinensis as "Critically Endangered", there is mounting evidence of the biological annihilation of this endemic species. Although rapidly rising extinction rates in invertebrates are increasingly recognized, the potential loss of originality in these "little things that run the world" has received little attention. We therefore call for comprehensive surveys of originality in invertebrates, particularly from extreme environments such as rapids of large rivers, as a basis for urgently needed ecology- and evolution-based conservation decisions.

Past, present, and future climate space of the only endemic vertebrate genus of the Italian peninsula

The two extant Salamandrina species represent a unique case of morphology, ecology, and ethology among urodeles. The range of this genus is currently limited to Italy, where it represents the only endemic vertebrate genus, but its past range extended over a much broader area of Europe, including the Iberian and Balkan peninsulas. ENM analyses using modern occurrences of Salamandrina demonstrate that the current climate of the majority of Europe, and especially areas where fossils of this genus were found, is currently not suitable for this genus, neither was it suitable during the last 3.3 million years. This result allows possible assumptions about the climatic influence on the former extirpation of this salamander from several areas of Europe. Furthermore, it shows that, during Pliocene–Pleistocene climatic oscillations, Mediterranean peninsulas, despite being generally considered together because of similar latitude, had different potential to effectively become glacial refugia for this salamander, and possibly for other species as well. Future projections using different CO₂ emission scenarios predict that climatic suitability will be even more drastically reduced during the next 50 years, underlining once more the importance of conservation strategies and emission-reducing policies.

New austrolimulid from Russia supports role of Early Triassic horseshoe crabs as opportunistic taxa

Horseshoe crabs are extant marine euchelicerates that have a fossil record extending well into the Palaeozoic. Extreme xiphosurid morphologies arose during this evolutionary history. These forms often reflected the occupation of freshwater or marginal conditions. This is particularly the case for Austrolimulidae—a xiphosurid family that has recently been subject to thorough taxonomic examination. Expanding the austrolimulid record, we present new material from the Olenekian-aged Petropavlovka Formation in European Russia and assign this material to Attenborolimulus superspinosus gen. et sp. nov. A geometric morphometric analysis of 23 horseshoe crab genera illustrates that the new taxon is distinct from limulid and paleolimulid morphologies, supporting the assignment within Austrolimulidae. In considering Triassic austrolimulids, we suggest that the hypertrophy or reduction in exoskeletal sections illustrate how species within the family evolved as opportunistic taxa after the end-Permian extinction.

The dimensions of evolutionary potential in biological conservation

It is now well admitted by ecologists that the conservation of biodiversity should imply preserving the evolutionary processes that will permit its adaptation to ongoing and future environmental changes. This is attested by the ever-growing reference to the conservation of evolutionary potential in the scientific literature. The impression that one may have when reading papers is that conserving evolutionary potential can only be a good thing, whatever biological system is under scrutiny. However, different objectives, such as maintaining species richness versus ecosystem services, may express different, when not conflicting, underlying values attributed to biodiversity. For instance, biodiversity can be intrinsically valued, as worth it to be conserved per se, or it can be conserved as a means for human flourishing. Consequently, both the concept of evolutionary potential and the prescriptions derived from the commitment to conserve it remain problematic, due to a lack of explicit mention of the norms underlying different conservation visions. Here, we contend that those who advocate for the conservation of evolutionary potential should position their conception along four dimensions: what vehicles instantiate the evolutionary potential relevant to their normative commitment; what temporality is involved; how measurable evolutionary potential is, and what degree of human influence is tolerated. We need to address these dimensions if we are to determine why and when the maintenance of evolutionary potential is an appropriate target for the conservation of biodiversity.

The effect of railways on bird diversity in farmland

With a length exceeding 210,000 km in Europe, railways are common linear features dissecting landscapes. However, the impact of railway networks on biodiversity is equivocal. In this study, we investigated the effect of railway embankments on bird diversity components in an agricultural landscape in southern Poland. Forty transects including 20 along railways and 20 as controls in open fields were established. Birds were counted twice in 2009, and environmental characteristics were estimated for each transect. Ordination techniques and generalized additive models were used to compare species composition, richness, abundance, conservation status, population trends and phylogenetic and functional diversity indices between railway and field transects. Species richness and phylogenetic diversity but not abundance nor functional diversity were higher along railway transects than along field transects. Diversity indices near railways, mostly species richness and phylogenetic diversity, were positively associated with bush cover, wet meadow cover, wetland cover and the slope of the railway but negatively associated with dry meadow cover and field cover. Our study shows that railway embankments may be beneficial for bird diversity but probably do not alter the functional properties of bird communities as much as open fields. Proper management of these linear habitats may increase their value for birds and contribute to long-term bird community persistence.

Preserving the tree of life of the fish family Cyprinidae in Africa in the face of the ongoing extinction crisis

Our understanding of how the phylogenetic tree of fishes might be affected by the ongoing extinction risk is poor. This is due to the unavailability of comprehensive DNA data, especially for many African lineages. In addition, the ongoing taxonomic confusion within some lineages, e.g., Cyprinidae, makes it difficult to contribute to the debate on how the fish tree of life might be shaped by extinction. Here, we combine COI sequences and taxonomic information to assemble a fully sampled phylogeny of the African Cyprinidae and investigate whether we might lose more phylogenetic diversity (PD) than expected if currently threatened species go extinct. We found evidence for phylogenetic signal in extinction risk, suggesting that some lineages might be at higher risk than others. Based on simulated extinctions, we found that the loss of all threatened species, which approximates 37% of total PD, would lead to a greater loss of PD than expected, although highly evolutionarily distinct species are not particularly at risk. Pending the reconstruction of an improved multi-gene phylogeny, our results suggest that prioritizing high-EDGE species (evolutionary distinct and globally endangered species) in conservation programmes, particularly in some geographic regions, would contribute significantly to safeguarding the tree of life of the African Cyprinidae.

The topology of evolutionary novelty and innovation in macroevolution

Sewall Wright's fitness landscape introduced the concept of evolutionary spaces in 1932. George Gaylord Simpson modified this to an adaptive, phenotypic landscape in 1944 and since then evolutionary spaces have played an important role in evolutionary theory through fitness and adaptive landscapes, phenotypic and functional trait spaces, morphospaces and related concepts. Although the topology of such spaces is highly variable, from locally Euclidean to pre-topological, evolutionary change has often been interpreted as a search through a pre-existing space of possibilities, with novelty arising by accessing previously inaccessible or difficult to reach regions of a space. Here I discuss the nature of evolutionary novelty and innovation within the context of evolutionary spaces, and argue that the primacy of search as a conceptual metaphor ignores the generation of new spaces as well as other changes that have played important evolutionary roles.This article is part of the themed issue 'Process and pattern in innovations from cells to societies'.

Developmental push or environmental pull? The causes of macroevolutionary dynamics

Have the large-scale evolutionary patterns illustrated by the fossil record been driven by fluctuations in environmental opportunity, by biotic factors, or by changes in the types of phenotypic variants available for evolutionary change? Since the Modern Synthesis most evolutionary biologists have maintained that microevolutionary processes carrying on over sufficient time will generate macroevolutionary patterns, with no need for other pattern-generating mechanisms such as punctuated equilibrium or species selection. This view was challenged by paleontologists in the 1970s with proposals that the differential sorting and selection of species and clades, and the effects of biotic crises such as mass extinctions, were important extensions to traditional evolutionary theory. More recently those interested in macroevolution have debated the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors in driving macroevolutionary patterns and have introduced comparative phylogenetic methods to analyze the rates of change in taxonomic diversity. Applying Peter Godfrey-Smith's distinction between distributional explanations and explanations focusing on the origin of variation, most macroevolutionary studies have provided distributional explanations of macroevolutionary patterns. Comparative studies of developmental evolution, however, have implicated the origin of variants as a driving macroevolution force. In particular, the repatterning of gene regulatory networks provides new insights into the origins of developmental novelties. This raises the question of whether macroevolution has been pulled by the generation of environmental opportunity, or pushed by the introduction of new morphologies. The contrast between distributional and origination scenarios has implications for understanding evolutionary novelty and innovation and how macroevolutionary process may have evolved over time.

Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in long-term time series and palaeoecological records: deep sea as a test bed

The link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) over long temporal scales is poorly understood. Here, we investigate biological monitoring and palaeoecological records on decadal, centennial and millennial time scales from a BEF framework by using deep sea, soft-sediment environments as a test bed. Results generally show positive BEF relationships, in agreement with BEF studies based on present-day spatial analyses and short-term manipulative experiments. However, the deep-sea BEF relationship is much noisier across longer time scales compared with modern observational studies. We also demonstrate with palaeoecological time-series data that a larger species pool does not enhance ecosystem stability through time, whereas higher abundance as an indicator of higher ecosystem functioning may enhance ecosystem stability. These results suggest that BEF relationships are potentially time scale-dependent. Environmental impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning may be much stronger than biodiversity impacts on ecosystem functioning at long, decadal-millennial, time scales. Longer time scale perspectives, including palaeoecological and ecosystem monitoring data, are critical for predicting future BEF relationships on a rapidly changing planet.

Life in the Aftermath of Mass Extinctions

The vast majority of species that have ever lived went extinct sometime other than during one of the great mass extinction events. In spite of this, mass extinctions are thought to have outsized effects on the evolutionary history of life. While part of this effect is certainly due to the extinction itself, I here consider how the aftermaths of mass extinctions might contribute to the evolutionary importance of such events. Following the mass loss of taxa from the fossil record are prolonged intervals of ecological upheaval that create a selective regime unique to those times. The pacing and duration of ecosystem change during extinction aftermaths suggests strong ties between the biosphere and geosphere, and a previously undescribed macroevolutionary driver - earth system succession. Earth system succession occurs when global environmental or biotic change, as occurs across extinction boundaries, pushes the biosphere and geosphere out of equilibrium. As species and ecosystems re-evolve in the aftermath, they change global biogeochemical cycles - and in turn, species and ecosystems - over timescales typical of the geosphere, often many thousands to millions of years. Earth system succession provides a general explanation for the pattern and timing of ecological and evolutionary change in the fossil record. Importantly, it also suggests that a speed limit might exist for the pace of global biotic change after massive disturbance - a limit set by geosphere-biosphere interactions. For mass extinctions, earth system succession may drive the ever-changing ecological stage on which species evolve, restructuring ecosystems and setting long-term evolutionary trajectories as they do.

Phylogenetic Clustering of Origination and Extinction across the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction

Mass extinctions can have dramatic effects on the trajectory of life, but in some cases the effects can be relatively small even when extinction rates are high. For example, the Late Ordovician mass extinction is the second most severe in terms of the proportion of genera eliminated, yet is noted for the lack of ecological consequences and shifts in clade dominance. By comparison, the end-Cretaceous mass extinction was less severe but eliminated several major clades while some rare surviving clades diversified in the Paleogene. This disconnect may be better understood by incorporating the phylogenetic relatedness of taxa into studies of mass extinctions, as the factors driving extinction and recovery are thought to be phylogenetically conserved and should therefore promote both origination and extinction of closely related taxa. Here, we test whether there was phylogenetic selectivity in extinction and origination using brachiopod genera from the Middle Ordovician through the Devonian. Using an index of taxonomic clustering (R_CL) as a proxy for phylogenetic clustering, we find that A) both extinctions and originations shift from taxonomically random or weakly clustered within families in the Ordovician to strongly clustered in the Silurian and Devonian, beginning with the recovery following the Late Ordovician mass extinction, and B) the Late Ordovician mass extinction was itself only weakly clustered. Both results stand in stark contrast to Cretaceous-Cenozoic bivalves, which showed significant levels of taxonomic clustering of extinctions in the Cretaceous, including strong clustering in the mass extinction, but taxonomically random extinctions in the Cenozoic. The contrasting patterns between the Late Ordovician and end-Cretaceous events suggest a complex relationship between the phylogenetic selectivity of mass extinctions and the long-term phylogenetic signal in origination and extinction patterns.

Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic groups and test the assumption that preserving ED and PD also protects rare species and ecosystem services. Such research will be useful to inform and guide the conservation of Earth's biodiversity and the services it provides.

Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras

When taxa go extinct, unique evolutionary history is lost. If extinction is selective, and the intrinsic vulnerabilities of taxa show phylogenetic signal, more evolutionary history may be lost than expected under random extinction. Under what conditions this occurs is insufficiently known. We show that late Cenozoic climate change induced phylogenetically selective regional extinction of northern temperate trees because of phylogenetic signal in cold tolerance, leading to significantly and substantially larger than random losses of phylogenetic diversity (PD). The surviving floras in regions that experienced stronger extinction are phylogenetically more clustered, indicating that non-random losses of PD are of increasing concern with increasing extinction severity. Using simulations, we show that a simple threshold model of survival given a physiological trait with phylogenetic signal reproduces our findings. Our results send a strong warning that we may expect future assemblages to be phylogenetically and possibly functionally depauperate if anthropogenic climate change affects taxa similarly.

The Early Origin of the Antarctic Marine Fauna and Its Evolutionary Implications

The extensive Late Cretaceous – Early Paleogene sedimentary succession of Seymour Island, N.E. Antarctic Peninsula offers an unparalleled opportunity to examine the evolutionary origins of a modern polar marine fauna. Some 38 modern Southern Ocean molluscan genera (26 gastropods and 12 bivalves), representing approximately 18% of the total modern benthic molluscan fauna, can now be traced back through at least part of this sequence. As noted elsewhere in the world, the balance of the molluscan fauna changes sharply across the Cretaceous – Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary, with gastropods subsequently becoming more diverse than bivalves. A major reason for this is a significant radiation of the Neogastropoda, which today forms one of the most diverse clades in the sea. Buccinoidea is the dominant neogastropod superfamily in both the Paleocene Sobral Formation (SF) (56% of neogastropod genera) and Early - Middle Eocene La Meseta Formation (LMF) (47%), with the Conoidea (25%) being prominent for the first time in the latter. This radiation of Neogastropoda is linked to a significant pulse of global warming that reached at least 65°S, and terminates abruptly in the upper LMF in an extinction event that most likely heralds the onset of global cooling. It is also possible that the marked Early Paleogene expansion of neogastropods in Antarctica is in part due to a global increase in rates of origination following the K/Pg mass extinction event. The radiation of this and other clades at ∼65°S indicates that Antarctica was not necessarily an evolutionary refugium, or sink, in the Early – Middle Eocene. Evolutionary source – sink dynamics may have been significantly different between the Paleogene greenhouse and Neogene icehouse worlds.

Body size and extinction risk in terrestrial mammals above the species level

Mammalian body mass strongly correlates with life history and population properties at the scale of mouse to elephant. Large body size is thus often associated with elevated extinction risk. I examined the North American fossil record (28-1 million years ago) of 276 terrestrial genera to uncover the relationship between body size and extinction probability above the species level. Phylogenetic comparative analysis revealed no correlation between sampling-adjusted durations and body masses ranging 7 orders of magnitude, an observation that was corroborated by survival analysis. Most of the ecological and temporal groups within the data set showed the same lack of relationship. Size-biased generic extinctions do not constitute a general feature of the Holarctic mammalian faunas in the Neogene. Rather, accelerated loss of large mammals occurred during intervals that experienced combinations of regional aridification and increased biomic heterogeneity within continents. The latter phenomenon is consistent with the macroecological prediction that large geographic ranges are critical to the survival of large mammals in evolutionary time. The frequent lack of size selectivity in generic extinctions can be reconciled with size-biased species loss if extinctions of large and small mammals at the species level are often driven by ecological perturbations of different spatial and temporal scales, while those at the genus level are more synchronized in time as a result of fundamental, multiscale environmental shifts.

Predicting the loss of phylogenetic diversity under non-stationary diversification models

For many species, the current high rates of extinction are likely to result in a significant loss of biodiversity. The evolutionary heritage of biodiversity is frequently quantified by a measure called phylogenetic diversity (PD). We predict the loss of PD under a wide class of phylogenetic tree models, where speciation rates and extinction rates may be time-dependent, and assuming independent random species extinctions at the present. We study the loss of PD when K contemporary species are selected uniformly at random from the N extant species as the surviving species, while the remaining N-K become extinct (N and K being random variables). We consider two models of species sampling, the so-called field of bullets model, where each species independently survives the extinction event at the present with probability p, and a model for which the number of surviving species is fixed. We provide explicit formulae for the expected remaining PD in both models, conditional on N=n, conditional on K=k, or conditional on both events. When N=n is fixed, we show the convergence to an explicit deterministic limit of the ratio of new to initial PD, as n→∞, both under the field of bullets model, and when K=kn is fixed and depends on n in such a way that kn/n converges to p. We also prove the convergence of this ratio as T→∞ in the supercritical, time-homogeneous case, where N simultaneously goes to ∞, thereby strengthening previous results of Mooers et al. (2012).

Extinction space--a method for the quantification and classification of changes in morphospace across extinction boundaries

Three main modes of extinction are responsible for reductions in morphological disparity: (1) random (caused by a nonselective extinction event); (2) marginal (a symmetric, selective extinction event trimming the margin of morphospace); and (3) lateral (an asymmetric, selective extinction event eliminating one side of the morphospace). These three types of extinction event can be distinguished from one another by comparing changes in three measures of morphospace occupation: (1) the sum of range along the main axes; (2) the sum of variance; and (3) the position of the centroid. Computer simulations of various extinction events demonstrate that the pre-extinction distribution of taxa (random or normal) in the morphospace has little influence on the quantification of disparity changes, whereas the modes of the extinction events play the major role. Together, the three disparity metrics define an "extinction-space" in which different extinction events can be directly compared with one another. Application of this method to selected extinction events (Frasnian-Famennian, Devonian-Carboniferous, and Permian-Triassic) of the Ammonoidea demonstrate the similarity of the Devonian events (selective extinctions) but the striking difference from the end-Permian event (nonselective extinction). These events differ in their mode of extinction despite decreases in taxonomic diversity of similar magnitude.

The chromatin insulator CTCF and the emergence of metazoan diversity

The great majority of metazoans belong to bilaterian phyla. They diversified during a short interval in Earth's history known as the Cambrian explosion, ~540 million years ago. However, the genetic basis of these events is poorly understood. Here we argue that the vertebrate genome organizer CTCF (CCCTC-binding factor) played an important role for the evolution of bilaterian animals. We provide evidence that the CTCF protein and a genome-wide abundance of CTCF-specific binding motifs are unique to bilaterian phyla, but absent in other eukaryotes. We demonstrate that CTCF-binding sites within vertebrate and Drosophila Hox gene clusters have been maintained for several hundred million years, suggesting an ancient origin of the previously known interaction between Hox gene regulation and CTCF. In addition, a close correlation between the presence of CTCF and Hox gene clusters throughout the animal kingdom suggests conservation of the Hox-CTCF link across the Bilateria. On the basis of these findings, we propose the existence of a Hox-CTCF kernel as principal organizer of bilaterian body plans. Such a kernel could explain (i) the formation of Hox clusters in Bilateria, (ii) the diversity of bilaterian body plans, and (iii) the uniqueness and time of onset of the Cambrian explosion.

A comparison of the effects of random and selective mass extinctions on erosion of evolutionary history in communities of digital organisms

The effect of mass extinctions on phylogenetic diversity and branching history of clades remains poorly understood in paleobiology. We examined the phylogenies of communities of digital organisms undergoing open-ended evolution as we subjected them to instantaneous “pulse” extinctions, choosing survivors at random, and to prolonged “press” extinctions involving a period of low resource availability. We measured age of the phylogenetic root and tree stemminess, and evaluated how branching history of the phylogenetic trees was affected by the extinction treatments. We found that strong random (pulse) and strong selective extinction (press) both left clear long-term signatures in root age distribution and tree stemminess, and eroded deep branching history to a greater degree than did weak extinction and control treatments. The widely-used Pybus-Harvey gamma statistic showed a clear short-term response to extinction and recovery, but differences between treatments diminished over time and did not show a long-term signature. The characteristics of post-extinction phylogenies were often affected as much by the recovery interval as by the extinction episode itself.

Deep-time phylogenetic clustering of extinctions in an evolutionarily dynamic clade (Early Jurassic ammonites)

Conservation biologists and palaeontologists are increasingly investigating the phylogenetic distribution of extinctions and its evolutionary consequences. However, the dearth of palaeontological studies on that subject and the lack of methodological consensus hamper our understanding of that major evolutionary phenomenon. Here we address this issue by (i) reviewing the approaches used to quantify the phylogenetic selectivity of extinctions and extinction risks; (ii) investigating with a high-resolution dataset whether extinctions and survivals were phylogenetically clustered among early Pliensbachian (Early Jurassic) ammonites; (iii) exploring the phylogenetic and temporal maintenance of this signal. We found that ammonite extinctions were significantly clumped phylogenetically, a pattern that prevailed throughout the 6.6 Myr-long early Pliensbachian interval. Such a phylogenetic conservatism did not alter – or may even have promoted – the evolutionary success of this major cephalopod clade. However, the comparison of phylogenetic autocorrelation among studies remains problematic because the notion of phylogenetic conservatism is scale-dependent and the intensity of the signal is sensitive to temporal resolution. We recommend a combined use of Moran's I, Pearson's ϕ and Fritz and Purvis' D statistics because they highlight different facets of the phylogenetic pattern of extinctions and/or survivals.

Ecophylogenetics: advances and perspectives

Ecophylogenetics can be viewed as an emerging fusion of ecology, biogeography and macroevolution. This new and fast-growing field is promoting the incorporation of evolution and historical contingencies into the ecological research agenda through the widespread use of phylogenetic data. Including phylogeny into ecological thinking represents an opportunity for biologists from different fields to collaborate and has provided promising avenues of research in both theoretical and empirical ecology, towards a better understanding of the assembly of communities, the functioning of ecosystems and their responses to environmental changes. The time is ripe to assess critically the extent to which the integration of phylogeny into these different fields of ecology has delivered on its promise. Here we review how phylogenetic information has been used to identify better the key components of species interactions with their biotic and abiotic environments, to determine the relationships between diversity and ecosystem functioning and ultimately to establish good management practices to protect overall biodiversity in the face of global change. We evaluate the relevance of information provided by phylogenies to ecologists, highlighting current potential weaknesses and needs for future developments. We suggest that despite the strong progress that has been made, a consistent unified framework is still missing to link local ecological dynamics to macroevolution. This is a necessary step in order to interpret observed phylogenetic patterns in a wider ecological context. Beyond the fundamental question of how evolutionary history contributes to shape communities, ecophylogenetics will help ecology to become a better integrative and predictive science.

Ecometrics: the traits that bind the past and present together

We outline here an approach for understanding the biology of climate change, one that integrates data at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Taxon-free trait analysis, or "ecometrics," is based on the idea that the distribution in a community of ecomorphological traits such as tooth structure, limb proportions, body mass, leaf shape, incubation temperature, claw shape, any aspect of anatomy or physiology can be measured across some subset of the organisms in a community. Regardless of temporal or spatial scale, traits are the means by which organisms interact with their environment, biotic and abiotic. Ecometrics measures these interactions by focusing on traits which are easily measurable, whose structure is closely related to their function, and whose function interacts directly with local environment. Ecometric trait distributions are thus a comparatively universal metric for exploring systems dynamics at all scales. The main challenge now is to move beyond investigating how future climate change will affect the distribution of organisms and how it will impact ecosystem services and to shift the perspective to ask how biotic systems interact with changing climate in general, and how climate change affects the interactions within and between the components of the whole biotic-physical system. We believe that it is possible to provide believable, quantitative answers to these questions. Because of this we have initiated an IUBS program iCCB (integrative Climate Change Biology).

Branch lengths on birth-death trees and the expected loss of phylogenetic diversity

Diversification is nested, and early models suggested this could lead to a great deal of evolutionary redundancy in the Tree of Life. This result is based on a particular set of branch lengths produced by the common coalescent, where pendant branches leading to tips can be very short compared with branches deeper in the tree. Here, we analyze alternative and more realistic Yule and birth-death models. We show how censoring at the present both makes average branches one half what we might expect and makes pendant and interior branches roughly equal in length. Although dependent on whether we condition on the size of the tree, its age, or both, these results hold both for the Yule model and for birth-death models with moderate extinction. Importantly, the rough equivalency in interior and exterior branch lengths means that the loss of evolutionary history with loss of species can be roughly linear. Under these models, the Tree of Life may offer limited redundancy in the face of ongoing species loss.

Phylogenetically clustered extinction risks do not substantially prune the Tree of Life

Anthropogenic activities have increased the rate of biological extinction many-fold. Recent empirical studies suggest that projected extinction may lead to extensive loss to the Tree of Life, much more than if extinction were random. One suggested cause is that extinction risk is heritable (phylogenetically patterned), such that entire higher groups will be lost. We show here with simulation that phylogenetically clustered extinction risks are necessary but not sufficient for the extensive loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD) compared to random extinction. We simulated Yule trees and evolved extinction risks at various levels of heritability (measured using Pagel's ). At most levels of heritability ( in range of 0 to 10), mean values of extinction risk (range 0.25 to 0.75), tree sizes (64 to 128 tips), tree balance and temporal heterogeneity of diversification rates (Yule and coalescent trees), extinction risks do not substantially increase the loss of PD in these trees when compared to random extinction. The maximum loss of PD (20% above random) was only associated with the combination of extremely excessive values of phylogenetic signal, high mean species' extinction probabilities, and extreme (coalescent) tree shapes. Interestingly, we also observed a decline in the rate of increase in the loss of PD at high phylogenetic clustering of extinction risks. Our results suggest that the interplay between various aspects of tree shape and a predisposition of higher extinction risks in species-poor clades is required to explain the substantial pruning of the Tree of Life.

The multidimensionality of the niche reveals functional diversity changes in benthic marine biotas across geological time

Despite growing attention on the influence of functional diversity changes on ecosystem functioning, a palaeoecological perspective on the long-term dynamic of functional diversity, including mass extinction crises, is still lacking. Here, using a novel multidimensional functional framework and comprehensive null-models, we compare the functional structure of Cambrian, Silurian and modern benthic marine biotas. We demonstrate that, after controlling for increases in taxonomic diversity, functional richness increased incrementally between each time interval with benthic taxa filling progressively more functional space, combined with a significant functional dissimilarity between periods. The modern benthic biota functionally overlaps with fossil biotas but some modern taxa, especially large predators, have new trait combinations that may allow more functions to be performed. From a methodological perspective, these results illustrate the benefits of using multidimensional instead of lower dimensional functional frameworks when studying changes in functional diversity over space and time.

The origins of modern biodiversity on land

Comparative studies of large phylogenies of living and extinct groups have shown that most biodiversity arises from a small number of highly species-rich clades. To understand biodiversity, it is important to examine the history of these clades on geological time scales. This is part of a distinct 'phylogenetic expansion' view of macroevolution, and contrasts with the alternative, non-phylogenetic 'equilibrium' approach to the history of biodiversity. The latter viewpoint focuses on density-dependent models in which all life is described by a single global-scale model, and a case is made here that this approach may be less successful at representing the shape of the evolution of life than the phylogenetic expansion approach. The terrestrial fossil record is patchy, but is adequate for coarse-scale studies of groups such as vertebrates that possess fossilizable hard parts. New methods in phylogenetic analysis, morphometrics and the study of exceptional biotas allow new approaches. Models for diversity regulation through time range from the entirely biotic to the entirely physical, with many intermediates. Tetrapod diversity has risen as a result of the expansion of ecospace, rather than niche subdivision or regional-scale endemicity resulting from continental break-up. Tetrapod communities on land have been remarkably stable and have changed only when there was a revolution in floras (such as the demise of the Carboniferous coal forests, or the Cretaceous radiation of angiosperms) or following particularly severe mass extinction events, such as that at the end of the Permian.

Simple model of recovery dynamics after mass extinction

Biotic recoveries following mass extinctions are characterized by a complex set of dynamics, including the rebuilding of whole ecologies from low-diversity assemblages of survivors and opportunistic species. Three broad classes of diversity dynamics during recovery have been suggested: an immediate linear response, a logistic recovery, and a simple positive feedback pattern of species interaction. Here we present a simple model of recovery which generates these three scenarios via differences in the extent of species interactions, thus capturing the dynamical logic of the recovery pattern. The model results indicate that the lag time to biotic recovery increases significantly as biotic interactions become more important in the recovery process.

History matters: ecometrics and integrative climate change biology

Climate change research is increasingly focusing on the dynamics among species, ecosystems and climates. Better data about the historical behaviours of these dynamics are urgently needed. Such data are already available from ecology, archaeology, palaeontology and geology, but their integration into climate change research is hampered by differences in their temporal and geographical scales. One productive way to unite data across scales is the study of functional morphological traits, which can form a common denominator for studying interactions between species and climate across taxa, across ecosystems, across space and through time—an approach we call ‘ecometrics’. The sampling methods that have become established in palaeontology to standardize over different scales can be synthesized with tools from community ecology and climate change biology to improve our understanding of the dynamics among species, ecosystems, climates and earth systems over time. Developing these approaches into an integrative climate change biology will help enrich our understanding of the changes our modern world is undergoing.

Epidemic disease decimates amphibian abundance, species diversity, and evolutionary history in the highlands of central Panama

Amphibian populations around the world are experiencing unprecedented declines attributed to a chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Despite the severity of the crisis, quantitative analyses of the effects of the epidemic on amphibian abundance and diversity have been unavailable as a result of the lack of equivalent data collected before and following disease outbreak. We present a community-level assessment combining long-term field surveys and DNA barcode data describing changes in abundance and evolutionary diversity within the amphibian community of El Copé, Panama, following a disease epidemic and mass-mortality event. The epidemic reduced taxonomic, lineage, and phylogenetic diversity similarly. We discovered that 30 species were lost, including five undescribed species, representing 41% of total amphibian lineage diversity in El Copé. These extirpations represented 33% of the evolutionary history of amphibians within the community, and variation in the degree of population loss and decline among species was random with respect to the community phylogeny. Our approach provides a fast, economical, and informative analysis of loss in a community whether measured by species or phylogenetic diversity.

Phylogenetic Approaches to the Study of Extinction

Species extinction is both a key process throughout the history of life and a pressing concern in the conservation of present-day biodiversity. These two facets have largely been studied by separate communities using different approaches. This article illustrates with examples some of the ways that considering the evolutionary relationships among species—phylogenies—has helped the study of both past and present species extinction. The focus is on three topics: extinction rates and severities, phylogenetic nonrandomness of extinction, and the testing of hypotheses relating extinction-proneness to attributes of organisms or species. Phylogenetic and taxic approaches to extinction have not fully fused, largely because of the difficulties of relating discrete taxa to the underlying continuity of phylogeny. Phylogeny must be considered in comparative tests of hypotheses about extinction, but care must be taken to avoid overcorrecting for phylogenetic nonindependence among taxa.

Colloquium paper: extinction and the spatial dynamics of biodiversity

The fossil record amply shows that the spatial fabric of extinction has profoundly shaped the biosphere; this spatial dimension provides a powerful context for integration of paleontological and neontological approaches. Mass extinctions evidently alter extinction selectivity, with many factors losing effectiveness except for a positive relation between survivorship and geographic range at the clade level (confirmed in reanalyses of end-Cretaceous extinction data). This relation probably also holds during "normal" times, but changes both slope and intercept with increasing extinction. The strong geographical component to clade dynamics can obscure causation in the extinction of a feature or a clade, owing to hitchhiking effects on geographic range, so that multifactorial analyses are needed. Some extinctions are spatially complex, and regional extinctions might either reset a diversity ceiling or create a diversification debt open to further diversification or invasion. Evolutionary recoveries also exhibit spatial dynamics, including regional differences in invasibilty, and expansion of clades from the tropics fuels at least some recoveries, as well as biodiversity dynamics during normal times. Incumbency effects apparently correlate more closely with extinction intensities than with standing diversities, so that regions with higher local and global extinctions are more subject to invasion; the latest Cenozoic temperate zones evidently received more invaders than the tropics or poles, but this dynamic could shift dramatically if tropical diversity is strongly depleted. The fossil record can provide valuable insights, and their application to present-day issues will be enhanced by partitioning past and present-day extinctions by driving mechanism rather than emphasizing intensity.