Graptoloid diversity and disparity became decoupled during the Ordovician mass extinction

Heterogeneous selectivity and morphological evolution of marine clades during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

Morphological disparity and taxonomic diversity are distinct measures of biodiversity, typically expected to evolve synergistically. However, evidence from mass extinctions indicates that they can be decoupled, and while mass extinctions lead to a drastic loss of diversity, their impact on disparity remains unclear. Here we evaluate the dynamics of morphological disparity and extinction selectivity across the Permian-Triassic mass extinction. We developed an automated approach, termed DeepMorph, for the extraction of morphological features from fossil images using a deep learning model and applied it to a high-resolution temporal dataset encompassing 599 genera across six marine clades. Ammonoids, brachiopods and ostracods experienced a selective loss of complex and ornamented forms, while bivalves, gastropods and conodonts did not experience morphologically selective extinctions. The presence and intensity of morphological selectivity probably reflect the variations in environmental tolerance thresholds among different clades. In clades affected by selective extinctions, the intensity of diversity loss promoted the loss of morphological disparity. Conversely, under non-selective extinctions, the magnitude of diversity loss had a negligible impact on disparity. Our results highlight that the Permian-Triassic mass extinction had heterogeneous morphological selective impacts across clades, offering new insights into how mass extinctions can reshape biodiversity and ecosystem structure.

Angiosperm flowers reached their highest morphological diversity early in their evolutionary history

Flowers are the complex and highly diverse reproductive structures of angiosperms. Because of their role in sexual reproduction, the evolution of flowers is tightly linked to angiosperm speciation and diversification. Accordingly, the quantification of floral morphological diversity (disparity) among angiosperm subgroups and through time may give important insights into the evolutionary history of angiosperms as a whole. Based on a comprehensive dataset focusing on 30 characters describing floral structure across angiosperms, we used 1201 extant and 121 fossil flowers to measure floral disparity and explore patterns of floral evolution through time and across lineages. We found that angiosperms reached their highest floral disparity in the Early Cretaceous. However, decreasing disparity toward the present likely has not precluded the innovation of other complex traits at other morphological levels, which likely played a key role in the outstanding angiosperm species richness. Angiosperms occupy specific regions of the theoretical morphospace, indicating that only a portion of the possible floral trait combinations is observed in nature. The ANA grade, the magnoliids, and the early-eudicot grade occupy large areas of the morphospace (higher disparity), whereas nested groups occupy narrower regions (lower disparity).

Late Ordovician Mass Extinction: Earth, fire and ice

The Late Ordovician Mass Extinction was the earliest of the 'big' five extinction events and the earliest to affect the trajectory of metazoan life. Two phases have been identified near the start of the Hirnantian period and in the middle. It was a massive taxonomic extinction, a weak phylogenetic extinction and a relatively benign ecological extinction. A rapid cooling, triggering a major ice age that reduced the temperature of surface waters, prompted a drop in sea level of some 100 m and introduced toxic bottom waters onto the shelves. These symptoms of more fundamental planetary processes have been associated with a range of factors with an underlying driver identified as volcanicity. Volcanic eruptions, and other products, may have extended back in time to at least the Sandbian and early Katian, suggesting the extinctions were more protracted and influential than hitherto documented.

Measurement theory and paleobiology

Measurement theory, a branch of applied mathematics, offers guiding principles for extracting meaning from empirical observations and is applicable to any science involving measurements. Measurement theory is highly relevant in paleobiology because statistical approaches assuming ratio-scaled variables are commonly used on data belonging to nominal and ordinal scale types. We provide an informal introduction to representational measurement theory and argue for its importance in robust scientific inquiry. Although measurement theory is widely applicable in paleobiology research, we use the study of disparity to illustrate measurement theoretical challenges in the quantitative study of the fossil record. Respecting the inherent properties of different measurements enables meaningful inferences about evolutionary and ecological processes from paleontological data.

Disparification and extinction trade-offs shaped the evolution of Permian to Jurassic Odonata

Owing to their prevalence in nowadays terrestrial ecosystems, insects are a relevant group to assess the impact of mass extinctions on emerged land. However, limitations of the insect fossil record make it difficult to assess the impact of such events based on taxonomic diversity alone. Therefore, we documented trends in morphological diversity, i.e., disparity, using wings of Permian to Jurassic Odonata as model. Our results show a decreasing trend in disparity while species richness increased. Both the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic transitions are revealed as important events, associated with strong morphospace restructuring due to selective extinction. In each case, a recovery was assured by the diversification of new forms compensating the loss of others. Early representatives of Odonata continuously evolved new shapes, a pattern contrasting with the classical assertion of a morphospace fulfilled early and followed by selective extinctions and specialization within it.

Divergent vertebral formulae shape the evolution of axial complexity in mammals

Complexity, defined as the number of parts and their degree of differentiation, is a poorly explored aspect of macroevolutionary dynamics. The maximum anatomical complexity of organisms has undoubtedly increased through evolutionary time. However, it is unclear whether this increase is a purely diffusive process or whether it is at least partly driven, occurring in parallel in most or many lineages and with increases in the minima as well as the means. Highly differentiated and serially repeated structures, such as vertebrae, are useful systems with which to investigate these patterns. We focus on the serial differentiation of the vertebral column in 1,136 extant mammal species, using two indices that quantify complexity as the numerical richness and proportional distribution of vertebrae across presacral regions and a third expressing the ratio between thoracic and lumbar vertebrae. We address three questions. First, we ask whether the distribution of complexity values in major mammal groups is similar or whether clades have specific signatures associated with their ecology. Second, we ask whether changes in complexity throughout the phylogeny are biased towards increases and whether there is evidence of driven trends. Third, we ask whether evolutionary shifts in complexity depart from a uniform Brownian motion model. Vertebral counts, but not complexity indices, differ significantly between major groups and exhibit greater within-group variation than recognized hitherto. We find strong evidence of a trend towards increasing complexity, where higher values propagate further increases in descendant lineages. Several increases are inferred to have coincided with major ecological or environmental shifts. We find support for multiple-rate models of evolution for all complexity metrics, suggesting that increases in complexity occurred in stepwise shifts, with evidence for widespread episodes of recent rapid divergence. Different subclades evolve more complex vertebral columns in different configurations and probably under different selective pressures and constraints, with widespread convergence on the same formulae. Further work should therefore focus on the ecological relevance of differences in complexity and a more detailed understanding of historical patterns.

Development and Phenotypic Plasticity of Tubes and Tubaria of the Living Graptolite Rhabdopleura recondita (Pterobranchia, Hemichordata)

The extant graptolite Rhabdopleura recondita has been so far recorded only as inhabiting a bryozoan skeleton. Its larval settlement and metamorphosis are possible in the absence of a bryozoan zoarium, whereas further colony development may require that the larva is hidden inside the bryozoan host. This dependence may constrain the development of R. recondita tube and tubaria compared to the other Rhabdopleura species that develop without a host. We report here on larval settlement and metamorphosis in the absence/presence of a bryozoan host skeleton. We also make the first attempt to test the phenotypical response of R. recondita tubes and tubaria under variable hydrodynamic regimes in laboratory conditions. After 40 days, no significant variation was detected in the number or length of the newly formed tubes. These findings suggest that R. recondita eventually resides in a narrow velocity range and that tube and tubarium development is largely invariable.

Evolution of fungal phenotypic disparity

Organismal-grade multicellularity has been achieved only in animals, plants and fungi. All three kingdoms manifest phenotypically disparate body plans but their evolution has only been considered in detail for animals. Here we tested the general relevance of hypotheses on the evolutionary assembly of animal body plans by characterizing the evolution of fungal phenotypic variety (disparity). The distribution of living fungal form is defined by four distinct morphotypes: flagellated; zygomycetous; sac-bearing; and club-bearing. The discontinuity between morphotypes is a consequence of extinction, indicating that a complete record of fungal disparity would present a more homogeneous distribution of form. Fungal disparity expands episodically through time, punctuated by a sharp increase associated with the emergence of multicellular body plans. Simulations show these temporal trends to be non-random and at least partially shaped by hierarchical contingency. These trends are decoupled from changes in gene number, genome size and taxonomic diversity. Only differences in organismal complexity, characterized as the number of traits that constitute an organism, exhibit a meaningful relationship with fungal disparity. Both animals and fungi exhibit episodic increases in disparity through time, resulting in distributions of form made discontinuous by extinction. These congruences suggest a common mode of multicellular body plan evolution.

Morphological volatility precedes ecological innovation in early echinoderms

Origins of higher taxonomic groups entail dramatic and nearly simultaneous changes in morphology and ecological function, limiting our ability to disentangle the drivers of evolutionary diversification. Here we phylogenetically compare the anatomy and life habits of Cambrian-Ordovician echinoderms to test which facet better facilitates future success. Rates of morphological evolution are faster and involve more volatile trait changes, allowing morphological disparity to accrue faster and earlier in the Cambrian. However, persistent life-habit evolution throughout the early Palaeozoic, combined with iterative functional convergence within adaptive strategies, results in major expansion of ecospace and functional diversity. The interactions between tempo, divergence and convergence demonstrate not only that anatomical novelty precedes ecological success, but also that ecological innovation is constrained, even during a phylum's origin.

The dimensionality and structure of species trait spaces

Trait-based ecology aims to understand the processes that generate the overarching diversity of organismal traits and their influence on ecosystem functioning. Achieving this goal requires simplifying this complexity in synthetic axes defining a trait space and to cluster species based on their traits while identifying those with unique combinations of traits. However, so far, we know little about the dimensionality, the robustness to trait omission and the structure of these trait spaces. Here, we propose a unified framework and a synthesis across 30 trait datasets representing a broad variety of taxa, ecosystems and spatial scales to show that a common trade-off between trait space quality and operationality appears between three and six dimensions. The robustness to trait omission is generally low but highly variable among datasets. We also highlight invariant scaling relationships, whatever organismal complexity, between the number of clusters, the number of species in the dominant cluster and the number of unique species with total species richness. When species richness increases, the number of unique species saturates, whereas species tend to disproportionately pack in the richest cluster. Based on these results, we propose some rules of thumb to build species trait spaces and estimate subsequent functional diversity indices.

Selectivity and the effect of mass extinctions on disparity and functional ecology

Selectivity of mass extinctions is thought to play a major role in coupling or decoupling of taxonomic, morphological, and ecological diversity, yet these measures have never been jointly evaluated within a single clade over multiple mass extinctions. We investigate extinction selectivity and changes in taxonomic diversity, morphological disparity, and functional ecology over the ~160-million-year evolutionary history of diplobathrid crinoids (Echinodermata), which spans two mass extinctions. Whereas previous studies documented extinction selectivity for crinoids during background extinction, we find no evidence for selectivity during mass extinctions. Despite no evidence for extinction selectivity, disparity remains strongly correlated with richness over extinction events, contradicting expected patterns of disparity given nonselective extinction. Results indicate that (i) disparity and richness can remain coupled across extinctions even when selective extinction does not occur, (ii) simultaneous decreases in taxonomic diversity and disparity are insufficient evidence for extinction selectivity, and (iii) selectivity differs between background and mass extinction regimes.

The complex effects of mass extinctions on morphological disparity

Studies of biodiversity through deep time have been a staple for biologists and paleontologists for over 60 years. Investigations of species richness (diversity) revealed that at least five mass extinctions punctuated the last half billion years, each seeing the rapid demise of a large proportion of contemporary taxa. In contrast to diversity, the response of morphological diversity (disparity) to mass extinctions is unclear. Generally, diversity and disparity are decoupled, such that diversity may decline as morphological disparity increases, and vice versa. Here, we develop simulations to model disparity changes across mass extinctions using continuous traits and birth-death trees. We find no simple null for disparity change following a mass extinction but do observe general patterns. The range of trait values decreases following either random or trait-selective mass extinctions, whereas variance and the density of morphospace occupation only decline following trait-selective events. General trends may differentiate random and trait-selective mass extinctions, but methods struggle to identify trait selectivity. Long-term effects of mass extinction trait selectivity change support for phylogenetic comparative methods away from the simulated Brownian motion toward Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Early Burst models. We find that morphological change over mass extinction is best studied by quantifying multiple aspects of morphospace occupation.

Species richness and disparity of parareptiles across the end-Permian mass extinction

The amniote clade Parareptilia is notable in that members of the clade exhibited a wide array of morphologies, were successful in a variety of ecological niches and survived the end-Permian mass extinction. In order to better understand how mass extinction events can affect clades that survive them, we investigate both the species richness and morphological diversity (disparity) of parareptiles over the course of their history. Furthermore, we examine our observations in the context of other metazoan clades, in order to identify post-extinction survivorship patterns that are present in the clade. The results of our study indicate that there was an early increase in parareptilian disparity, which then fluctuated over the course of the Permian, before it eventually declined sharply towards the end of the Permian and into the Triassic, corresponding with the end-Permian mass extinction event. Interestingly, this is a different trend to what is observed regarding parareptile richness, that shows an almost continuous increase until its overall peak at the end of the Late Permian. Moreover, richness did not experience the same sharp drop at the end of the Permian, reaching a plateau until the Anisian, before dropping sharply and remaining low, with the clade going extinct at the end of the Triassic. This observed pattern is likely to be due to the fact that, despite the extinction of several morphologically distinct parareptile clades, the procolophonoids, one of the largest parareptilian clades, were diversifying across the Permian-Triassic boundary. With the clade's low levels of disparity and eventually declining species richness, this pattern most resembles a 'dead clade walking' pattern.

Diversity and Disparity of Therocephalia: Macroevolutionary Patterns through Two Mass Extinctions

Mass extinctions have the potential to substantially alter the evolutionary trends in a clade. If new regions of ecospace are made available, the clade may radiate. If, on the other hand, the clade passes through an evolutionary “bottleneck” by substantially reducing its species richness, then subsequent radiations may be restricted in the disparity they attain. Here we compare the patterns of diversity and disparity in the Therocephalia, a diverse lineage of amniotes that survived two mass extinction events. We use time calibrated phylogeny and discrete character data to assess macroevolutionary patterns. The two are coupled through the early history of therocephalians, including a radiation following the late Guadalupian extinction. Diversity becomes decoupled from disparity across the end-Permian mass extinction. The number of species decreases throughout the Early Triassic and never recovers. However, while disparity briefly decreases across the extinction boundary, it recovers and remains high until the Middle Triassic.

Morphospace saturation in the stem-gnathostomes pteraspidiformes heterostracans: an early radiation of a 'bottom' heavy clade

Ostracoderms (fossil armoured jawless fishes) shed light on early vertebrate evolution by revealing the step-wise acquisition of jawed vertebrate characters, and were important constituents of Middle Palaeozoic vertebrate faunas. A wide variety of head shield shapes are observed within and between the ostracoderm groups, but the timing of these diversifications and the consistency between different measures of their morphospace are unclear. Here, we present the first disparity (explored morphospace) versus diversity (number of taxa) analysis of Pteraspidiformes heterostracans using continuous and discrete characters. Patterns of taxic diversity and morphological disparity are in accordance: they both show a rise to a peak in the Lochkovian followed by a gradual decline in the Middle-Late Devonian. Patterns are largely consistent for disparity measures using sum of ranges or total variance, and when using continuous or discrete characters. Pteraspidiformes heterostracans can be classified as a "bottom-heavy clade", i.e., a group where a high initial disparity decreasing over time is detected. In fact, the group explored morphospace early in its evolutionary history, with much of the subsequent variation in dermal armour occurring as variation in the proportions of already evolved anatomical features. This Early Devonian radiation is also in agreement with the paleobiogeographic distribution of the group, with a maximum of dispersal and explored morphospace during the Lochkovian and Pragian time bins.

The rise of the ruling reptiles and ecosystem recovery from the Permo-Triassic mass extinction

One of the key faunal transitions in Earth history occurred after the Permo-Triassic mass extinction (ca 252.2 Ma), when the previously obscure archosauromorphs (which include crocodylians, dinosaurs and birds) become the dominant terrestrial vertebrates. Here, we place all known middle Permian-early Late Triassic archosauromorph species into an explicit phylogenetic context, and quantify biodiversity change through this interval. Our results indicate the following sequence of diversification: a morphologically conservative and globally distributed post-extinction 'disaster fauna'; a major but cryptic and poorly sampled phylogenetic diversification with significantly elevated evolutionary rates; and a marked increase in species counts, abundance, and disparity contemporaneous with global ecosystem stabilization some 5 million years after the extinction. This multiphase event transformed global ecosystems, with far-reaching consequences for Mesozoic and modern faunas.

Pacing of Paleozoic macroevolutionary rates by Milankovitch grand cycles

Periodic fluctuations in past biodiversity, speciation, and extinction have been proposed, with extremely long periods ranging from 26 to 62 million years, although forcing mechanisms remain speculative. In contrast, well-understood periodic Milankovitch climate forcing represents a viable driver for macroevolutionary fluctuations, although little evidence for such fluctuation exists except during the Late Cenozoic. The reality, magnitude, and drivers of periodic fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates are of interest given long-standing debate surrounding the relative roles of intrinsic biotic interactions vs. extrinsic environmental factors as drivers of biodiversity change. Here, we show that, over a time span of 60 million years, between 9 and 16% of the variance in biological turnover (i.e., speciation probability plus species extinction probability) in a major Early Paleozoic zooplankton group, the graptoloids, can be explained by long-period astronomical cycles (Milankovitch "grand cycles") associated with Earth's orbital eccentricity (2.6 million years) and obliquity (1.3 million years). These grand cycles modulate climate variability, alternating times of relative stability in the environment with times of maximum volatility. We infer that these cycles influenced graptolite speciation and extinction through climate-driven changes to oceanic circulation and structure. Our results confirm the existence of Milankovitch grand cycles in the Early Paleozoic Era and show that known processes related to the mechanics of the Solar System were shaping marine macroevolutionary rates comparatively early in the history of complex life. We present an application of hidden Markov models to macroevolutionary time series and protocols for the evaluation of statistical significance in spectral analysis.

Discrete and continuous character-based disparity analyses converge to the same macroevolutionary signal: a case study from captorhinids

The relationship between diversity and disparity during the evolutionary history of a clade provides unique insights into evolutionary radiations and the biological response to bottlenecks and to extinctions. Here we present the first comprehensive comparison of diversity and disparity of captorhinids, a group of basal amniotes that is important for understanding the early evolution of high-fiber herbivory. A new fully resolved phylogeny is presented, obtained by the inclusion of 31 morphometric characters. The new dataset is used to calculate diversity and disparity through the evolutionary history of the clade, using both discrete and continuous characters. Captorhinids do not show a decoupling between diversity and disparity, and are characterized by a rather symmetric disparity distribution, with a peak in occupied morphospace at about the midpoint of the clade's evolutionary history (Kungurian). This peak represents a delayed adaptive radiation, identified by the first appearance of several high-fiber herbivores in the clade, along with numerous omnivorous taxa. The discrete characters and continuous morphometric characters indicate the same disparity trends. Therefore, we argue that in the absence of one of these two possible proxies, the disparity obtained from just one source can be considered robust and representative of a general disparity pattern.

Decoupled ecomorphological evolution and diversification in Neogene-Quaternary horses

Evolutionary theory has long proposed a connection between trait evolution and diversification rates. In this work, we used phylogenetic methods to evaluate the relationship of lineage-specific speciation rates and the mode of evolution of body size and tooth morphology in the Neogene and Quaternary radiation of horses (7 living and 131 extinct species). We show that diversification pulses are a recurrent feature of equid evolution but that these pulses are not correlated with rapid bursts in phenotypic evolution. Instead, rapid cladogenesis seems repeatedly associated with extrinsic factors that relaxed diversity bounds, such as increasing productivity and geographic dispersals into the Old World. This evidence suggests that diversity dynamics in Equinae were controlled mainly by ecological limits under diversity dependence rather than rapid ecomorphological differentiation.

From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis

Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the "Big Five" mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems.

Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

Trait-based diversification shifts reflect differential extinction among fossil taxa

Evolution provides many cases of apparent shifts in diversification associated with particular anatomical traits. Three general models connect these patterns to anatomical evolution: (i) elevated net extinction of taxa bearing particular traits, (ii) elevated net speciation of taxa bearing particular traits, and (iii) elevated evolvability expanding the range of anatomies available to some species. Trait-based diversification shifts predict elevated hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility (i.e., primitive→derived→highly derived sequences) among pairs of anatomical characters. The three specific models further predict (i) early loss of diversity for taxa retaining primitive conditions (elevated net extinction), (ii) increased diversification among later members of a clade (elevated net speciation), and (iii) increased disparity among later members in a clade (elevated evolvability). Analyses of 319 anatomical and stratigraphic datasets for fossil species and genera show that hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility exceeds the expectations of trait-independent diversification in the vast majority of cases, which was expected if trait-dependent diversification shifts are common. Excess hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility correlates with early loss of diversity for groups retaining primitive conditions rather than delayed bursts of diversity or disparity across entire clades. Cambrian clades (predominantly trilobites) alone fit null expectations well. However, it is not clear whether evolution was unusual among Cambrian taxa or only early trilobites. At least among post-Cambrian taxa, these results implicate models, such as competition and extinction selectivity/resistance, as major drivers of trait-based diversification shifts at the species and genus levels while contradicting the predictions of elevated net speciation and elevated evolvability models.

Joined at the hip: linked characters and the problem of missing data in studies of disparity

Paleontological investigations into morphological diversity, or disparity, are often confronted with large amounts of missing data. We illustrate how missing discrete data affect disparity using a novel simulation for removing data based on parameters from published datasets that contain both extinct and extant taxa. We develop an algorithm that assesses the distribution of missing characters in extinct taxa, and simulates data loss by applying that distribution to extant taxa. We term this technique "linkage." We compare differences in disparity metrics and ordination spaces produced by linkage and random character removal. When we incorporated linkage among characters, disparity metrics declined and ordination spaces shrank at a slower rate with increasing missing data, indicating that correlations among characters govern the sensitivity of disparity analysis. We also present and test a new disparity method that uses the linkage algorithm to correct for the bias caused by missing data. We equalized proportions of missing data among time bins before calculating disparity, and found that estimates of disparity changed when missing data were taken into account. By removing the bias of missing data, we can gain new insights into the morphological evolution of organisms and highlight the detrimental effects of missing data on disparity analysis.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Rates of speciation and morphological evolution are correlated across the largest vertebrate radiation

Several evolutionary theories predict that rates of morphological change should be positively associated with the rate at which new species arise. For example, the theory of punctuated equilibrium proposes that phenotypic change typically occurs in rapid bursts associated with speciation events. However, recent phylogenetic studies have found little evidence linking these processes in nature. Here we demonstrate that rates of species diversification are highly correlated with the rate of body size evolution across the 30,000+ living species of ray-finned fishes that comprise the majority of vertebrate biological diversity. This coupling is a general feature of fish evolution and transcends vast differences in ecology and body-plan organization. Our results may reflect a widespread speciational mode of character change in living fishes. Alternatively, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that phenotypic 'evolvability'-the capacity of organisms to evolve-shapes the dynamics of speciation through time at the largest phylogenetic scales.

Robust regression and posterior predictive simulation increase power to detect early bursts of trait evolution

A central prediction of much theory on adaptive radiations is that traits should evolve rapidly during the early stages of a clade's history and subsequently slowdown in rate as niches become saturated--a so-called "Early Burst." Although a common pattern in the fossil record, evidence for early bursts of trait evolution in phylogenetic comparative data has been equivocal at best. We show here that this may not necessarily be due to the absence of this pattern in nature. Rather, commonly used methods to infer its presence perform poorly when when the strength of the burst--the rate at which phenotypic evolution declines--is small, and when some morphological convergence is present within the clade. We present two modifications to existing comparative methods that allow greater power to detect early bursts in simulated datasets. First, we develop posterior predictive simulation approaches and show that they outperform maximum likelihood approaches at identifying early bursts at moderate strength. Second, we use a robust regression procedure that allows for the identification and down-weighting of convergent taxa, leading to moderate increases in method performance. We demonstrate the utility and power of these approach by investigating the evolution of body size in cetaceans. Model fitting using maximum likelihood is equivocal with regards the mode of cetacean body size evolution. However, posterior predictive simulation combined with a robust node height test return low support for Brownian motion or rate shift models, but not the early burst model. While the jury is still out on whether early bursts are actually common in nature, our approach will hopefully facilitate more robust testing of this hypothesis. We advocate the adoption of similar posterior predictive approaches to improve the fit and to assess the adequacy of macroevolutionary models in general.

Clades reach highest morphological disparity early in their evolution

There are few putative macroevolutionary trends or rules that withstand scrutiny. Here, we test and verify the purported tendency for animal clades to reach their maximum morphological variety relatively early in their evolutionary histories (early high disparity). We present a meta-analysis of 98 metazoan clades radiating throughout the Phanerozoic. The disparity profiles of groups through time are summarized in terms of their center of gravity (CG), with values above and below 0.50 indicating top- and bottom-heaviness, respectively. Clades that terminate at one of the "big five" mass extinction events tend to have truncated trajectories, with a significantly top-heavy CG distribution overall. The remaining 63 clades show the opposite tendency, with a significantly bottom-heavy mean CG (relatively early high disparity). Resampling tests are used to identify groups with a CG significantly above or below 0.50; clades not terminating at a mass extinction are three times more likely to be significantly bottom-heavy than top-heavy. Overall, there is no clear temporal trend in disparity profile shapes from the Cambrian to the Recent, and early high disparity is the predominant pattern throughout the Phanerozoic. Our results do not allow us to distinguish between ecological and developmental explanations for this phenomenon. To the extent that ecology has a role, however, the paucity of bottom-heavy clades radiating in the immediate wake of mass extinctions suggests that early high disparity more probably results from the evolution of key apomorphies at the base of clades rather than from physical drivers or catastrophic ecospace clearing.

Extinction space--a method for the quantification and classification of changes in morphospace across extinction boundaries

Three main modes of extinction are responsible for reductions in morphological disparity: (1) random (caused by a nonselective extinction event); (2) marginal (a symmetric, selective extinction event trimming the margin of morphospace); and (3) lateral (an asymmetric, selective extinction event eliminating one side of the morphospace). These three types of extinction event can be distinguished from one another by comparing changes in three measures of morphospace occupation: (1) the sum of range along the main axes; (2) the sum of variance; and (3) the position of the centroid. Computer simulations of various extinction events demonstrate that the pre-extinction distribution of taxa (random or normal) in the morphospace has little influence on the quantification of disparity changes, whereas the modes of the extinction events play the major role. Together, the three disparity metrics define an "extinction-space" in which different extinction events can be directly compared with one another. Application of this method to selected extinction events (Frasnian-Famennian, Devonian-Carboniferous, and Permian-Triassic) of the Ammonoidea demonstrate the similarity of the Devonian events (selective extinctions) but the striking difference from the end-Permian event (nonselective extinction). These events differ in their mode of extinction despite decreases in taxonomic diversity of similar magnitude.

Decoupling of taxonomic diversity and morphological disparity during decline of the Cambrian trilobite family Pterocephaliidae

Although discordance between taxonomic diversity and morphological disparity is common, little is known about the underlying dynamics that drive this decoupling. Early in the history of the Cambrian trilobite family Pterocephaliidae, there was an increase in taxonomic diversity and morphological diversity. As taxonomic diversity declined in the later history of the clade, range of variation stayed high and disparity continued to increase. However, per-branch rates of morphological evolution estimated from a recent phylogeny decreased with time. Neither within-trait nor within-species variation increased or decreased, suggesting that the declining rates of morphological evolution were more likely related to ecological opportunity or niche partitioning, rather than increasing intrinsic constraints. This is further supported by evidence for increased biofacies associations throughout the time period. Thus, the high disparity seen at low taxonomic diversity late in the history of this clade was due to extinction - either random or targeting mean forms - rather than increased rates of morphological evolution. This pattern also provides a scenario that could account for instances of low taxonomic diversity but high morphological disparity in modern groups.

Rapid action in the Palaeogene, the relationship between phenotypic and taxonomic diversification in Coenozoic mammals

A classic question in evolutionary biology concerns the tempo and mode of lineage evolution. Considered variously in relation to resource utilization, intrinsic constraints or hierarchic level, the question of how evolutionary change occurs in general has continued to draw the attention of the field for over a century and a half. Here we use the largest species-level phylogeny of Coenozoic fossil mammals (1031 species) ever assembled and their body size estimates, to show that body size and taxonomic diversification rates declined from the origin of placentals towards the present, and very probably correlate to each other. These findings suggest that morphological and taxic diversifications of mammals occurred hierarchically, with major shifts in body size coinciding with the birth of large clades, followed by taxonomic diversification within these newly formed clades. As the clades expanded, rates of taxonomic diversification proceeded independently of phenotypic evolution. Such a dynamic is consistent with the idea, central to the Modern Synthesis, that mammals radiated adaptively, with the filling of adaptive zones following the radiation.

Bitemarks: distortion and covariation of the maxillary and mandibular dentition as impressed in human skin

In bitemark analysis the extent of distortion of both maxillary and mandibular arches and how one affects the other has not been studied. A single dentition was used to create 49 bites on unembalmed cadavers. Landmarks were placed on digital images of the bitemarks and scanned images of the biting dentition. A sample of 297 randomly acquired dental models was used for comparison purposes. Geometric morphometric techniques were utilized to statistically describe size and shape change, as well as the correlation between the two arches. Results indicate that the predominant distortion seen was in arch width, at 7-28 times as large as measurement error in the biting dentition and roughly 50% of the variation seen in the random population of dentitions. The correlation of arch width distortion between arches was very low (∼0.03). However, the principal patterns of all shape variation did co-vary in the bitemarks produced by the maxillary and mandibular dentition, an effect indicating independence of size and shape distortion. In conclusion, bitemark analysis should be approached with caution when the principal difference between suspects is arch width.