Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature

Anthropogenic forcings reverse a simulated multi-century naturally-forced Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell intensification

The Hadley circulation plays a central role in determining the location and intensity of the hydrological cycle in tropical and subtropical latitudes. Thus, the human-induced historical and projected weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation has considerable societal impacts. Yet, it is currently unknown how unparalleled this weakening is relative to the response of the circulation to natural forcings in past centuries. Here, using state-of-the-art climate models, we show that in contrast to the recent and future human-induced Hadley circulation weakening, natural forcings acted to intensify the circulation by cooling the climate over the last millennium. The reversal of a naturally-forced multi-centennial trend by human emissions highlights their unprecedented impacts on the atmospheric circulation. Given the amplifying effect of natural forcings on the Hadley circulation, our analysis stresses the importance of adequately incorporating natural forcings in climate model projections to better constrain future tropical climate changes.

A Study on the Online Attention of Emergency Events of Torrential Rain in Shanxi and Henan

To analyze the differences in the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of online attention to sudden torrential rain public events in Shanxi and Henan provinces in China, and their influencing factors, the Baidu index search platform was used to obtain the online attention of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) nationwide for the 20 July 2021 to 9 August 2021 Henan torrential rain and the 5 October 2021 to 25 October 2021 Shanxi torrential rain. The geographical concentration index, the coefficient of variation, the Moran index, and the Pearson correlation were used to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the online attention of the floods in Shanxi and Henan and their influencing factors. The study shows that: (1) from a temporal perspective, the daily internet attention of both the Shanxi and Henan torrential rain reached its highest value on the third day, showing a sharp rise followed by a sharp fall in an inverted “V” pattern, and compared to the prolonged and continuous torrential rain in Shanxi, the short-lived precipitation and broken ring of the Henan torrential rain were seriously urgent, showing a higher internet attention. For example, the highest daily attention in Shanxi was only 73,643, while the highest daily attention in Henan was 56,054, which is 7.6 times higher than the former. The Geographical Concentration (G) index of internet attention for torrential rain in Shanxi increased from 1.55 to 8.25 within three weeks, with attention shifting from scattered to concentrated, while the G-index for torrential rain in Henan showed an inverted “V” shape; the Coefficient of Variation (CV) index for torrential rain in both provinces showed a downward trend within three weeks. (2) In terms of spatial distribution, the regional distribution of the network concern about the torrential rain in Shanxi and Henan is uneven. The provinces and cities with a higher concern about the torrential rain in Shanxi are mainly some eastern provinces and cities, such as Jiangsu, Beijing, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hainan, etc., who have signed coal protection agreements with Shanxi. The provinces and cities with a higher concern about the torrential rain in Henan are mainly the economically developed coastal provinces or provinces adjacent to Henan, such as Beijing, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Shaanxi, etc. The concern of each city for the torrential rain in the two provinces is in line with the law of distance decay. (3) In terms of influencing factors, the level of regional economic development, demographic factors, and Internet penetration and distance all have a certain influence on the level of attention to sudden torrential rain, and the study found that the level of economic development and demographic factors have the most significant influence on the level of internet attention.

Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system

The ambition and effectiveness of climate policies will be essential in determining greenhouse gas emissions and, as a consequence, the scale of climate change impacts^1,2. However, the socio-politico-technical processes that will determine climate policy and emissions trajectories are treated as exogenous in almost all climate change modelling^3,4. Here we identify relevant feedback processes documented across a range of disciplines and connect them in a stylized model of the climate-social system. An analysis of model behaviour reveals the potential for nonlinearities and tipping points that are particularly associated with connections across the individual, community, national and global scales represented. These connections can be decisive for determining policy and emissions outcomes. After partly constraining the model parameter space using observations, we simulate 100,000 possible future policy and emissions trajectories. These fall into 5 clusters with warming in 2100 ranging between 1.8 °C and 3.6 °C above the 1880-1910 average. Public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of mitigation technologies, and the responsiveness of political institutions emerge as important in explaining variation in emissions pathways and therefore the constraints on warming over the twenty-first century.

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex "Gigafire" occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

α2-Antiplasmin as a potential regulator of the spatial memory process and age-related cognitive decline

α2-Antiplasmin (α2AP), a principal physiological plasmin inhibitor, is mainly produced by the liver and kidneys, but it is also expressed in several parts of the brain, including the hippocampus and cerebral cortex. Our previous study demonstrated that α2AP knockout mice exhibit spatial memory impairment in comparison to wild-type mice, suggesting that α2AP is necessary for the fetal and/or neonatal development of the neural network for spatial memory. However, it is still unclear whether α2AP plays a role in the memory process. The present study demonstrated that adult hippocampal neurogenesis and remote spatial memory were enhanced by the injection of an anti-α2AP neutralizing antibody in WT mice, while the injection of α2AP reduced hippocampal neurogenesis and impaired remote spatial memory, suggesting that α2AP is a negative regulator in memory processing. The present study also found that the levels of α2AP in the brains of old mice were higher than those in young mice, and a negative correlation between the α2AP level and spatial working memory. In addition, aging-dependent brain oxidative stress and hippocampal inflammation were attenuated by α2AP deficiency. Thus, an age-related increase in α2AP might cause cognitive decline accompanied by brain oxidative stress and neuroinflammation. Taken together, our findings suggest that α2AP is a key regulator of the spatial memory process, and that it may represent a promising target to effectively regulate healthy brain aging.

StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales

Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening windows into past climate–biodiversity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of biodiversity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth’s history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity.

Measurement(s)	climate change • climate • temperature of air • volume of hydrological precipitation
Technology Type(s)	computational modeling technique • digital curation
Factor Type(s)	timing of temperature and precipitation estimates
Sample Characteristic - Environment	climate system
Sample Characteristic - Location	Earth (planet)

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12831935

Identifying a human signal in the North Atlantic warming hole

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have large climate impacts affecting the weather of the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to a substantial warming over much of the North Atlantic, caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the 21st century, climate projections show a surprising region of considerable future cooling at midlatitudes, referred to as the North Atlantic warming hole. A similar pattern of surface temperature trends has been observed in recent decades, but it remains unclear whether this pattern is of anthropogenic origin or a simple manifestation of internal climate variability. Here, analyzing state-of-the-art climate models and observations, we show that the recent North Atlantic warming hole is of anthropogenic origin. Our analysis reveals that the anthropogenic signal has only recently emerged from the internal climate variability, and can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. We further show that a declining northward oceanic heat flux in recent decades, which is linked to this surface temperature pattern, is also of anthropogenic origin.

Most of the North Atlantic has seen strong increase in surface temperatures in recent decades, except for one region, which has been called the North Atlantic warming hole. Here, the authors employ detection and attribution techniques to show that this temperature pattern in recent decades is being caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic "fingerprint" predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth's climate.

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870's to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS) [Lau and Kim, 2015]. The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellar overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Rainfall characteristics analyses indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20th century and projections during the 21st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080-2099 relative to a base period of 1986-2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian Summer Monsoon circulation and rainfall

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing and amplifying influences on the global and regional drivers, circulation and rainfall responses of the Asian monsoon under global greenhouse warming (GHG) and aerosol forcing, based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. The inclusion of aerosol emissions strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

Tropospheric Warming Over The Past Two Decades

Satellite temperature measurements do not support the recent claim of a "leveling off of warming" over the past two decades. Tropospheric warming trends over recent 20-year periods are always significantly larger (at the 10% level or better) than model estimates of 20-year trends arising from natural internal variability. Over the full 38-year period of the satellite record, the separation between observed warming and internal variability estimates is even clearer. In two out of three recent satellite datasets, the tropospheric warming from 1979 to 2016 is unprecedented relative to internally generated temperature trends on the 38-year timescale.

Quantification of Local Warming Trend: A Remote Sensing-Based Approach

Understanding the warming trends at local level is critical; and, the development of relevant adaptation and mitigation policies at those levels are quite challenging. Here, our overall goal was to generate local warming trend map at 1 km spatial resolution by using: (i) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based 8-day composite surface temperature data; (ii) weather station-based yearly average air temperature data; and (iii) air temperature normal (i.e., 30 year average) data over the Canadian province of Alberta during the period 1961-2010. Thus, we analysed the station-based air temperature data in generating relationships between air temperature normal and yearly average air temperature in order to facilitate the selection of year-specific MODIS-based surface temperature data. These MODIS data in conjunction with weather station-based air temperature normal data were then used to model local warming trends. We observed that almost 88% areas of the province experienced warming trends (i.e., up to 1.5°C). The study concluded that remote sensing technology could be useful for delineating generic trends associated with local warming.

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO₂, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO₂/CH₄ changes.

Perception, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change: a survey among CDC health professionals in Shanxi province, China

BACKGROUND

A better understanding of public perceptions, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change will provide an important foundation for government׳s policy-making, service provider׳s guideline development and the engagement of local communities. The purpose of this study was to assess the perception towards climate change, behavior change, mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the central government among the health professionals in the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China.

METHODS

In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 CDC health professionals in various levels of CDC in Shanxi Province, China. Descriptive analyses were performed.

RESULTS

More than two thirds of the respondents believed that climate change has happened at both global and local levels, and climate change would lead to adverse impacts to human beings. Most respondents (74.8%) indicated the emission of greenhouse gases was the cause of climate change, however there was a lack of knowledge about greenhouse gases and their sources. Media was the main source from which respondents obtained the information about climate change. A majority of respondents showed that they were willing to change behavior, but their actions were limited. In terms of mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the Chinese Government, respondents׳ perception showed inconsistency between strategies and relevant actions. Moreover, although the majority of respondents believed some strategies and measures were extremely important to address climate change, they were still concerned about economic development, energy security, and local environmental protection.

CONCLUSION

There are gaps between perceptions and actions towards climate change among these health professionals. Further efforts need to be made to raise the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to address climate change in the context of the proposed policies with local sustainable development.

Identifying external influences on global precipitation

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle ("thermodynamic" changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt ("dynamic" changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.