Methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure and use in the urban region of Boston, Massachusetts

Underestimation of Thermogenic Methane Emissions in New York City

Recent studies have shown that methane emissions are underestimated by inventories in many US urban areas. This has important implications for climate change mitigation policy at the city, state, and national levels. Uncertainty in both the spatial distribution and sectoral allocation of urban emissions can limit the ability of policy makers to develop appropriately focused emission reduction strategies. Top-down emission estimates based on atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements can help to improve inventories and inform policy decisions. This study presents a new high-resolution (0.02 × 0.02°) methane emission inventory for New York City and its surrounding area, constructed using the latest activity data, emission factors, and spatial proxies. The new high-resolution inventory estimates of methane emissions for the New York-Newark urban area are 1.3 times larger than those for the gridded Environmental Protection Agency inventory. We used aircraft mole fraction measurements from nine research flights to optimize the high-resolution inventory emissions within a Bayesian inversion. These sectorally optimized emissions show that the high-resolution inventory still significantly underestimates methane emissions within the New York-Newark urban area, primarily because it underestimates emissions from thermogenic sources (by a factor of 2.3). This suggests that there remains a gap in our process-based understanding of urban methane emissions.

Landfill gas collection efficiency: Categorization of data from existing in-situ measurements

Landfill methane emissions are commonly estimated using cover-type dependent default collection efficiency values, with a first-order decay model or measured gas collection. Current default collection efficiencies used in the United States were predominately derived from 4 studies conducted during or prior to 2007 that relied on flux chambers. Flux chambers are limited by small sample sizes, placement restrictions, and the inability to measure emissions from gas or leachate collection systems. Since 2007, over 14 new studies have been completed using more advanced technologies that allow for direct measurement of methane plumes from most or all of a landfill's surface. On average, these measurements are 2-3 times greater than emissions predicted by current models and collection efficiency defaults. In lieu of measuring emissions from all landfills, updating collection efficiency defaults can bring modeled emissions into better alignment with measurements. To this end, collection efficiency estimates derived from measured data were categorized into cover types and then adjusted to account for cases where whole plume measurement was an amalgamation of multiple cover types. The resultant adjusted default values were 41% for daily cover, 69% for intermediate cover, and 71% for final cover. Direct measurement of landfill methane emissions is preferrable to account for the full range of variables driving landfill emissions, including collection system design and operation. However, applying these updated defaults back into the landfill emission models eliminates underprediction of landfill emissions for the dataset reviewed, and would provide a more accurate estimate of landfill gas emissions where measurements are unavailable.

Ground-Based Mobile Measurements to Track Urban Methane Emissions from Natural Gas in 12 Cities across Eight Countries

To mitigate methane emission from urban natural gas distribution systems, it is crucial to understand local leak rates and occurrence rates. To explore urban methane emissions in cities outside the U.S., where significant emissions were found previously, mobile measurements were performed in 12 cities across eight countries. The surveyed cities range from medium size, like Groningen, NL, to large size, like Toronto, CA, and London, UK. Furthermore, this survey spanned across European regions from Barcelona, ES, to Bucharest, RO. The joint analysis of all data allows us to focus on general emission behavior for cities with different infrastructure and environmental conditions. We find that all cities have a spectrum of small, medium, and large methane sources in their domain. The emission rates found follow a heavy-tailed distribution, and the top 10% of emitters account for 60-80% of total emissions, which implies that strategic repair planning could help reduce emissions quickly. Furthermore, we compare our findings with inventory estimates for urban natural gas-related methane emissions from this sector in Europe. While cities with larger reported emissions were found to generally also have larger observed emissions, we find clear discrepancies between observation-based and inventory-based emission estimates for our 12 cities.

Methane emission and influencing factors of China's oil and natural gas sector in 2020-2060: A source level analysis

The Chinese oil and gas industry requires targeted policies to reduce methane emissions. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to predict future methane emission trends and analyze the factors that influence them. However, changing economic development patterns, insufficient analysis of various factors influencing emissions, and inadequate resolution of methane emission inventories have made these goals difficult to achieve. Accordingly, this study aims to expand the methane emission estimation method to compile source-level emission inventories for future emissions, analyze the factors influencing them, and form a mechanistic understanding of the methane emissions from the local oil and gas industry. The research results indicate that methane emissions deriving from this industry will increase rapidly before 2030, after which they will decline slowly in all scenarios. The production and utilization processes in the natural gas supply chain, i.e., compressors and liquid unloading, include the main sources of methane emissions. Emissions are affected significantly by total production and consumption. Change in the overall supply and demand of natural gas affects change in methane emissions more significantly than adopting new technologies and strengthening facility maintenance, i.e., the overall supply and demand of natural gas are the dominant factors in controlling methane emissions. This study suggests that controlling the total demand for oil and gas should be at the core of the methane emission control policy for the local oil and gas industry. Moreover, equipment maintenance and emission reduction technologies should be used more effectively to reduce total emissions.

Measuring methane emissions during the installation of residential and commercial natural gas meters in China

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that accounts for one-quarter of the world's radiative forcing. Methane emissions from the natural gas sector are prevalent throughout the natural gas (NG) chain. Studies have shown that methane emissions from post-meter uses of natural gas are vastly understated. A surge in the number of natural gas users, for example, would amplify the climate impact of methane emissions during the installation of natural gas meters. Thus, quantifying methane emissions during the installation of natural gas meters is critical in light of severe global climate change and urgent reduction targets. In this study, we used a mass balance approach to calculate methane emissions during the separate installation of 1444 residential natural gas meters and 51 commercial natural gas meters. Our results revealed the methane emission had a fat tail distribution. Specifically, the estimated mean methane emissions for household users were 0.008 (0.001-0.022) kg per household and 0.192 (0.013-0.816) kg per commercial user. Extrapolating these statistics to the whole of China, total emissions from 2007 to 2021 were 3.80 million metric tons (MMt) CH4, with an annual average of 0.25 MMt. Notably, in terms of economic development and population size, the provinces with the highest methane emissions were concentrated in the southeast. Our findings close a gap in measuring CH4 emissions in China across the natural gas chain and provide data to support the reduction targets set and the development of reduction technologies.

Methane Emissions Show Recent Decline but Strong Seasonality in Two US Northeastern Cities

Urban methane emissions estimated using atmospheric observations have been found to exceed estimates derived by using traditional inventory methods in several northeastern US cities. In this work, we leveraged a nearly five-year record of observations from a dense tower network coupled with a newly developed high-resolution emissions map to quantify methane emission rates in Washington, DC, and Baltimore, Maryland. Annual emissions averaged over 2018-2021 were 80.1 [95% CI: 61.2, 98.9] Gg in the Washington, DC urban area and 47.4 [95% CI: 35.9, 58.5] Gg in the Baltimore urban area, with a decreasing trend of approximately 4-5% per year in both cities. We also find wintertime emissions 44% higher than summertime emissions, correlating with natural gas consumption. We further attribute a large fraction of total methane emissions to the natural gas sector using a least-squares regression on our spatially resolved estimates, supporting previous findings that natural gas systems emit the plurality of methane in both cities. This study contributes to the relatively sparse existing knowledge base of urban methane emissions sources and variability, adding to our understanding of how these emissions change in time and providing evidence to support efforts to mitigate natural gas emissions.

An inventory of greenhouse gas emissions due to natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States and Canada from 1980s to 2021

Natural gas is believed to be a critical transitional energy source. However, natural gas pipelines, once failed, will contribute to a large amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including methane from uncontrolled natural gas venting and carbon dioxide from flared natural gas. However, the GHG emissions caused by pipeline incidents are not included in the regular inventories, making the counted GHG amount deviate from the reality. This study, for the first time, establishes an inventory framework for GHG emissions including all natural gas pipeline incidents in the two of the largest gas producers and consumers in North America (United States and Canada) from 1980s to 2021. The inventory comprises GHG emissions resulting from gathering and transmission pipeline incidents in a total of 24 states or regions in the United States between 1970 and 2021, local distribution pipeline incidents in 22 states or regions between 1970 and 2021, as well as natural gas pipeline incidents in a total of 7 provinces or regions in Canada between 1979 and 2021. These datasets can improve the accuracy of regular emission inventories by covering more emission sources in the United States and Canada and provide essential information for climate-oriented pipeline integrity management.

Differentiating and Mitigating Methane Emissions from Fugitive Leaks from Natural Gas Distribution, Historic Landfills, and Manholes in Montréal, Canada

Rapidly reducing urban methane (CH₄) emissions is a critical component of strategies aimed at limiting climate change. Individual source measurements provide the details necessary to develop actionable mitigation strategies and are highly complementary to mobile surveys and other top-down methods. Here, we perform 615 individual source measurements in Montréal, Canada, to quantify CH₄ emissions from historic landfills, manholes, and fugitive emissions from natural gas (NG) distribution systems. We find that in 2020, historic landfills produced 901 (452 to 1541, 95% c.i.) tons of CH₄, manholes emitted 786 (32 to 2602, 95% c.i.) tons of CH₄, and NG distribution systems emitted 451 (176-843, 95% c.i.) tons of CH₄, placing them all within the top four CH₄ sources in Montréal. Methane emissions from both historic landfills and manholes are not accounted for in any greenhouse gas inventory. We find that geochemistry alone cannot positively identify source subcategories (e.g., type of manhole or NG infrastructure) in almost all cases, although C₂/C₁ ratios can distinguish NG distribution sources from biogenic sources (historic landfills and manholes). Using our individual source measurement data, we show that historic landfills have the greatest potential for CH₄ reductions but the highest mitigation costs, unless we target the highest emitting landfills. In contrast, CH₄ emissions from manholes can be reduced at low costs, but reduction methods are commercially unavailable. For NG distribution, methods such as increasing repair rates for high-emitting industrial meters can greatly reduce mitigation costs and emissions. Overall, our results highlight the role of individual source measurements in developing actionable CH₄ mitigation strategies to meet municipal, regional, and national climate action plans.

Atmospheric observations suggest methane emissions in north-eastern China growing with natural gas use

The dramatic increase of natural gas use in China, as a substitute for coal, helps to reduce CO₂ emissions and air pollution, but the climate mitigation benefit can be offset by methane leakage into the atmosphere. We estimate methane emissions from 2010 to 2018 in four regions of China using the GOSAT satellite data and in-situ observations with a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) inverse model and analyze interannual changes of emissions by source sectors. We find that estimated methane emission over the north-eastern China region contributes the largest part (0.77 Tg CH₄ yr^-1) of the methane emission growth rate of China (0.87 Tg CH₄ yr^-1) and is largely attributable to the growth in natural gas use. The results provide evidence of a detectable impact on atmospheric methane observations by the increasing natural gas use in China and call for methane emission reductions throughout the gas supply chain and promotion of low emission end-use facilities.

Machine learning based attribution mapping of climate related discussions on social media

A united front from all the stakeholders including public, administration and academia alike is required to counter the growing threat of climate change. The recent rise of social media as the new public address system, makes it an ideal source of information to assess public discussions and responses in real time. We mine c.1.7 m posts from 55 climate related subreddits on social media platform Reddit since its inception. Using USE, a state-of-the-art sentence encoder, and K-means clustering algorithm, we develop a machine learning based approach to identify, store, process and classify the posts automatically, and at a scale. In the broad and multifaceted theme of climate change, our approach narrows down the focus to 10 critical underlying themes comprising the public discussions on social media over time. Furthermore, we employ a full order partial correlation analysis to assess the relationship between the different identified themes. We show that in line with Paris Agreement, while the climate science community has been successful in influencing the discussions on both the causes and effects of climate change, the public administration has failed to appropriately communicate the causes of climate change and has been able to influence only the discussions on the effects of it. Hence, our study shows a clear gap in the public communication by the administration, wherein counter-intuitively less emphasis has been given on the drivers of climate change. This information can be particularly beneficial to policymakers and climate activists in decision making as they try to close the gap between public and academia.

Climate change and vulnerability of agribusiness: Assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity

The current study has mapped the impact of changes in different climatic parameters on the productivity of major crops cultivated in India like cereal, pulses, and oilseed crops. The vulnerability of crops to different climatic conditions like exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive indicators along with its different components and agribusiness has been studied. The study uses data collected over the past six decades from 1960 to 2020. Analytical tools such as the Tobit regression model and Principal Component Analysis were used for the investigation which has shown that among climatic parameters, an increase in temperature along with huge variations in rainfall and consistent increase in CO₂ emissions have had a negative impact by reducing crop productivity, particularly cereals (26 percent) and oilseed (35 percent). Among various factors, adaptive factors such as cropping intensity, agricultural machinery, and livestock density in combination with sensitivity factors such as average operational land holding size and productivity of cereals, and exposure indicators like Kharif (June-September) temperature, heavy rainfall, and rate of change in maximum and minimum Rabi (October-February) temperature have contributed significantly in increasing crop vulnerability. The agribusiness model needs to be more inclusive. It should pay attention to small and remote farmers, and provide them with inclusive finance that can facilitate the adoption of climate-smart financial innovations, serve the underserved segments, and help them reach the target of a sustainable and inclusive agribusiness model. Though the social, technological, and economic initiatives can enhance the adaptive capacity of farmers, political measures still have a major role to play in providing a healthy climate for agriculture in India through tailored adaptive approaches like the adoption of craft climate adaptation program, dilating the irrigation coverage and location-centric management options. Hence, multidisciplinary and holistic approaches are worth emphasizing for evaluating the future impacts of change in climate on Indian agriculture.

Traffic, transport, and vegetation drive VOC concentrations in a major urban area in Texas

The population of Texas has increased rapidly in the past decade. The San Antonio Field Study (SAFS) was designed to investigate ozone (O₃) production and precursors in this rapidly changing, sprawling metropolitan area. There are still many questions regarding the sources and chemistry of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in urban areas like San Antonio which are affected by a complex mixture of industry, traffic, biogenic sources and transported pollutants. The goal of the SAFS campaign in May 2017 was to measure inorganic trace gases, VOCs, methane (CH₄), and ethane (C₂H₆). The SAFS field design included two sites to better assess air quality across the metro area: an urban site (Traveler's World; TW) and a downwind/suburban site (University of Texas at San Antonio; UTSA). The results indicated that acetone (2.52 ± 1.17 and 2.39 ± 1.27 ppbv), acetaldehyde (1.45 ± 1.02 and 0.93 ± 0.45 ppbv) and isoprene (0.64 ± 0.49 and 1.21 ± 0.85 ppbv; TW and UTSA, respectively) were the VOCs with the highest concentrations. Additionally, positive matrix factorization showed three dominant factors of VOC emissions: biogenic, aged urban mixed source, and acetone. Methyl vinyl ketone and methacrolein (MVK + MACR) exhibited contributions from both secondary photooxidation of isoprene and direct emissions from traffic. The C₂H₆:CH₄ demonstrated potential influence of oil and gas activities in San Antonio. Moreover, the high O₃ days during the campaign were in the NO_x-limited O₃ formation regime and were preceded by evening peaks in select VOCs, NO_x and CO. Overall, quantification of the concentration and trends of VOCs and trace gases in a major city in Texas offers vital information for general air quality management and supports strategies for reducing O₃ pollution. The SAFS campaign VOC results will also add to the growing body of literature on urban sources and concentrations of VOCs in major urban areas.

Home is Where the Pipeline Ends: Characterization of Volatile Organic Compounds Present in Natural Gas at the Point of the Residential End User

The presence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in unprocessed natural gas (NG) is well documented; however, the degree to which VOCs are present in NG at the point of end use is largely uncharacterized. We collected 234 whole NG samples across 69 unique residential locations across the Greater Boston metropolitan area, Massachusetts. NG samples were measured for methane (CH₄), ethane (C₂H₆), and nonmethane VOC (NMVOC) content (including tentatively identified compounds) using commercially available USEPA analytical methods. Results revealed 296 unique NMVOC constituents in end use NG, of which 21 (or approximately 7%) were designated as hazardous air pollutants. Benzene (bootstrapped mean = 164 ppbv; SD = 16; 95% CI: 134-196) was detected in 95% of samples along with hexane (98% detection), toluene (94%), heptane (94%), and cyclohexane (89%), contributing to a mean total concentration of NMVOCs in distribution-grade NG of 6.0 ppmv (95% CI: 5.5-6.6). While total VOCs exhibited significant spatial variability, over twice as much temporal variability was observed, with a wintertime NG benzene concentration nearly eight-fold greater than summertime. By using previous NG leakage data, we estimated that 120-356 kg/yr of annual NG benzene emissions throughout Greater Boston are not currently accounted for in emissions inventories, along with an unaccounted-for indoor portion. NG-odorant content (tert-butyl mercaptan and isopropyl mercaptan) was used to estimate that a mean NG-CH₄ concentration of 21.3 ppmv (95% CI: 16.7-25.9) could persist undetected in ambient air given known odor detection thresholds. This implies that indoor NG leakage may be an underappreciated source of both CH₄ and associated VOCs.

Monitoring methane emissions from oil and gas operations‡

The atmospheric concentration of methane has more than doubled since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Methane is the second-most-abundant greenhouse gas created by human activities and a major driver of climate change. This APS-Optica report provides a technical assessment of the current state of monitoring U.S. methane emissions from oil and gas operations, which accounts for roughly 30% of U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions. The report identifies current technological and policy gaps and makes recommendations for the federal government in three key areas: methane emissions detection, reliable and systematized data and models to support mitigation measures, and effective regulation.

A multi-city urban atmospheric greenhouse gas measurement data synthesis

Urban regions emit a large fraction of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) that contribute to modern-day climate change. As such, a growing number of urban policymakers and stakeholders are adopting emission reduction targets and implementing policies to reach those targets. Over the past two decades research teams have established urban GHG monitoring networks to determine how much, where, and why a particular city emits GHGs, and to track changes in emissions over time. Coordination among these efforts has been limited, restricting the scope of analyses and insights. Here we present a harmonized data set synthesizing urban GHG observations from cities with monitoring networks across North America that will facilitate cross-city analyses and address scientific questions that are difficult to address in isolation.

Measurement(s)	carbon dioxide • methane • carbon monoxide
Technology Type(s)	spectroscopy
Sample Characteristic - Environment	city
Sample Characteristic - Location	North America

Why are methane emissions from China's oil & natural gas systems still unclear? A review of current bottom-up inventories

There is growing awareness and concern on methane (CH₄) emissions from China's oil and natural gas (ONG) systems owing to the carbon neutral target. This paper aims to present a comprehensive review on the bottom-up inventories of the CH₄ emissions from the perspective of the ONG systems in China. The trend and magnitude of total emissions in the last four decades were revealed and limitations of current estimations were explored. Previous studies showed that the average CH₄ emissions from China's ONG systems have almost tripled from 1980 (760 Gg) to 2015 (2180 Gg) with a trend of steady increase. However, the estimated values varied by an order-of-magnitude with the largest discrepancy of 2700 Gg. This discrepancy was unlikely caused mainly by the incompleteness of estimation, since dominant emission sources were all covered by representative studies. Moreover, the differences of activity-level data were within ±10%, which ruled out the possibility that it was the main contributor to the large discrepancies. The emissions estimate has huge variation in large part because of differences in assumed emission factors (EFs) that vary by an order of magnitude. The difficulty was to determine which of the EFs were accurate due to measurement-based data availability. Thus, the large discrepancies stem from the scarcity of publicly available data, which enlarged the impact from various methods adopted by previous studies. For better understanding of CH₄ emissions from the ONG systems in China, the measurements of facility-level emissions and statistics on the ONG infrastructure are required urgently. Due to the high cost and experience-oriented measurement work, international cooperation and communications are critical prerequisites for future CH₄ emission estimates and effective mitigation strategies.

Atmospheric mercury sources in a coastal-urban environment: a case study in Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Mercury (Hg) is an environmental toxicant dangerous to human health and the environment. Its anthropogenic emissions are regulated by global, regional, and local policies. Here, we investigate Hg sources in the coastal city of Boston, the third largest metropolitan area in the Northeastern United States. With a median of 1.37 ng m^-3, atmospheric Hg concentrations measured from August 2017 to April 2019 were at the low end of the range reported in the Northern Hemisphere and in the range reported at North American rural sites. Despite relatively low ambient Hg concentrations, we estimate anthropogenic emissions to be 3-7 times higher than in current emission inventories using a measurement-model framework, suggesting an underestimation of small point and/or nonpoint emissions. We also test the hypothesis that a legacy Hg source from the ocean contributes to atmospheric Hg concentrations in the study area; legacy emissions (recycling of previously deposited Hg) account for ∼60% of Hg emitted annually worldwide (and much of this recycling takes place through the oceans). We find that elevated concentrations observed during easterly oceanic winds can be fully explained by low wind speeds and recirculating air allowing for accumulation of land-based emissions. This study suggests that the influence of nonpoint land-based emissions may be comparable in size to point sources in some regions and highlights the benefits of further top-down studies in other areas.

Majority of US urban natural gas emissions unaccounted for in inventories

Across many cities, estimates of methane emissions from natural gas (NG) distribution and end use based on atmospheric measurements have generally been more than double bottom-up estimates. We present a top-down study of NG methane emissions from the Boston urban region spanning 8 y (2012 to 2020) to assess total emissions, their seasonality, and trends. We used methane and ethane observations from five sites in and around Boston, combined with a high-resolution transport model, to calculate methane emissions of 76 ± 18 Gg/yr, with 49 ± 9 Gg/yr attributed to NG losses. We found no significant trend in the NG loss rate over 8 y, despite efforts from the city and state to increase the rate of repairing NG pipeline leaks. We estimate that 2.5 ± 0.5% of the gas entering the urban region is lost, approximately three times higher than bottom-up estimates. We saw a strong correlation between top-down NG emissions and NG consumed on a seasonal basis. This suggests that consumption-driven losses, such as in transmission or end-use, may be a large component of emissions that is missing from inventories, and require future policy action. We also compared top-down NG emission estimates from six US cities, all of which indicate significant missing sources in bottom-up inventories. Across these cities, we estimate NG losses from distribution and end use amount to 20 to 36% of all losses from the US NG supply chain, with a total loss rate of 3.3 to 4.7% of NG from well pad to urban consumer, notably larger than the current Environmental Protection Agency estimate of 1.4% [R. A. Alvarez et al., Science 361, 186-188 (2018)].

Methane emissions from above-ground natural gas distribution facilities in the urban environment: A fence line methodology and case study in Calgary, Alberta, Canada

The occurrence and emissions of methane (CH₄) from above-ground urban natural gas infrastructure is poorly understood. Compared to below-ground infrastructure, these facilities are relatively easy to monitor and maintain and present an opportunity for cost-effective CH₄ reductions. We present a case study and methodology for detecting, attributing, and quantifying CH₄ emissions from fence line measurements at above-ground natural gas facilities in the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. We produced bounding-box concentration maps by walking around the outer fence of 33 facilities with a backpack-configured trace gas analyzer and a tablet with integrated GPS. Wind measurements were acquired simultaneously from a fixed location on site with a 3D sonic anemometer. We fused geolocation, CH₄ concentration, and wind data to determine the likelihood each facility was emitting. We found one definitive leak by carrying out measurements directly alongside an exposed section of pipe. Based on the presence of methyl mercaptan (CH₃SH) odor, peak ΔCH₄, and the difference between downwind and upwind ΔCH₄, we interpret a high plausibility that 22 facilities were emitting CH₄, followed by 2 with a medium plausibility, and 8 with a low plausibility. Once verified to plausibly emit, these data were used to estimate emissions flux at six facilities where near-field obstructions were limited. The estimated emissions flux for six facilities was 66.31 mg CH₄ s^-1, or 2.1 tonnes CH₄ yr^-1 if this flux remained constant. Overall, this study indicates most above-ground natural gas facilities surveyed in Calgary were emitting CH₄. These facilities represent easy mitigation targets for reducing CH₄ emissions and improving environmental performance. To our knowledge, this is the first study to integrate qualitative and quantitative information to predict detection plausibility in a complex measurement setting.Implications: The fence line methodology outlined in this study represents an extension of source assessment modes in the US EPA's Other Test Method 33A for human portable systems. This has implications for standardization of emissions measurement in situations where other platforms (e.g., vehicles) are less effective due to access limitations. We believe the methodology presented could become a recognized standard based on performance from controlled testing and added to the regulatory toolkit for emissions verification and compliance.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Western Canadian Natural Gas: Proposed Emissions Tracking for Life Cycle Modeling

Natural gas (NG) produced in Western Canada is a major and growing source of Canada's energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions portfolio. Despite recent progress, there is still only limited understanding of the sources and drivers of Western Canadian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We conduct a case study of a production facility based on Seven Generation Energy Ltd.'s Western Canadian operations and an upstream NG emissions intensity model. The case study upstream emissions intensity is estimated to be 3.1-4.0 gCO₂e/MJ NG compared to current best estimates of British Columbia (BC) emissions intensities of 6.2-12 gCO₂e/MJ NG and a US average estimate of 15 gCO₂e/MJ. The analysis reveals that compared to US studies, public GHG emissions data for Western Canada is insufficient as current public data satisfies only 50% of typical LCA model inputs. Company provided data closes most of these gaps (∼80% of the model inputs). We recommend more detailed data collection and presentation of government reported data such as a breakdown of vented and fugitive methane emissions by source. We propose a data collection template to facilitate improved GHG emissions intensity estimates and insight about potential mitigation strategies.

The Potential Ozone Impacts of Landfills

Landfill gas produces ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides and formaldehyde when combusted in flares or stationary engines. Solid waste landfills are also the third largest anthropogenic source of methane in the United States. Methane is both a greenhouse gas and a tropospheric ozone precursor. Despite its low photochemical reactivity, methane may noticeably affect urban ozone if released in large quantities along with other organic compounds in landfill gas. A fine-scale 3D Eulerian chemical transport model was used to demonstrate that, under meteorological and background chemical conditions conducive to high ozone concentrations, typical emissions of ozone precursors from a single hypothetical landfill may result in persistent daytime additions to ozone of over 1 part per billion (ppb) by volume tens of kilometers downwind. Large leaks of landfill gas can enhance this ozone pollution by over a tenth of a ppb, and external sources of non-methane ozone precursors may further exacerbate this impact. In addition, landfill gas combustion may increase near-source exposure to toxic formaldehyde by well over half a ppb. In Southeast Michigan, the combined influence of several landfills upwind of key monitoring sites may contribute significantly to observed exceedances of the U.S. ozone standard.

Mapping Urban Methane Sources in Paris, France

Megacities, with their large and complex infrastructures, are significant sources of methane emissions. To develop a simple, low-cost methodology to quantify these globally important methane sources, this study focuses on mobile measurements of methane (CH₄) and its isotopic composition in Paris. Data collected between September 2018 to March 2019 resulted in 17 days of measurements, which provided spatial distribution of street-level methane mixing ratios, source type identification, and emission quantification. Consequently, 90 potential leaks were detected in Paris sorted into three leak categories: natural gas distribution network emissions (63%), sewage network emissions (33%), and emissions from heating furnaces of buildings (4%). The latter category has not previously been reported in urban methane studies. Accounting for the detectable emissions from the ground, the total estimated CH₄ emission rate of Paris was 5000 L/min (190 t/yr), with the largest contribution from gas leaks (56%). This ranks Paris as a city with medium CH₄ emissions. Two areas of clusters were found, where 22% and 56% of the total potential emissions of Paris were observed. Our findings suggest that the natural gas distribution network, the sewage system, and furnaces of buildings are ideal targets for street-level CH₄ emission reduction efforts for Paris.

The assessment of two different pollutants dispersion from a coal-fired power plant for various thermal regimes

In this study, numerical simulations of the movement and emissions dispersion of two pollutants (sulfur dioxide(SO₂) and carbon dioxide(CO₂)) into the atmospheric boundary layer were considered under natural atmospheric conditions. To test the numerical algorithm and to select the optimal turbulent model, the test problem was solved numerically. The obtained computational data were compared with measurement data and values from the computation of other authors and the SST k-omega model illustrated the closest values to the data from the experiment, this is achieved by modifying the boundary condition for turbulent kinetic energy. The tested computational algorithm was used to characterize the emissions process of two pollutants from two chimneys of the Ekibastuz SDPP and the distribution of CO₂ and SO₂ in the air flow field in natural air condition. For this task, four various velocity variations were considered, as well as several various thermal variations (temperature inversion, constant temperature and decreasing temperature by the height). From the obtained computational results, it should be noticed that different environmental temperature conditions extremely impact the distribution of pollutants CO₂ and SO₂ in the atmospheric surface layer, so at constant temperature conditions, the species for all velocity variations have nearly identical species profile.

Repair Failures Call for New Policies to Tackle Leaky Natural Gas Distribution Systems

Methane leaks in natural gas systems are low-hanging fruit for near-term, locally driven climate policy. Recent work suggests this emissions source is larger than previously believed and that repairing a small number of high emitters can cost-effectively reduce system-wide leakage. How successful are these repairs on the ground? Here, we assess the effectiveness of repair policies in the Massachusetts distribution system. Our analysis leverages state-wide utility data, on-site empirical measurements, stakeholder interviews, and document and legal analysis. We use these mixed methods to investigate the rate of repair failure, where a gas utility identifies and fixes a leak, but on-site emissions are not eliminated. We find that repair failures are relatively common, yet they are repeatedly neglected in policy. By not accounting for repair failures, policy may overestimate the effectiveness of distribution system repairs in meeting local greenhouse gas reduction targets. These results also underscore the importance of data transparency for monitoring and verifying subnational climate policies.

Urban Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Monoxide, and Methane Determined from Ground-Based Measurements in Philadelphia

Nitrogen oxides (NO_X) and methane impact air quality through the promotion of ozone formation, and methane is also a strong greenhouse gas. Despite the importance of these pollutants, emissions in urban areas are poorly quantified. We present measurements of NO_X, CH₄, CO, and CO₂ made at Drexel University in Philadelphia along with NO_X and CO observations at two roadside monitors. Because CO₂ concentrations in the winter result almost entirely from combustion with negligible influence from photosynthesis and respiration, we are able to infer fleet-averaged fuel-based emission factors (EFs) for NO_X and CO, similar in some ways to how EFs are determined from tunnel studies. Comparison of the inferred NO_X and CO fuel-based EF to the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) suggests errors in NEI emissions of either NO_X, CO, or both. From the measurements of CH₄ and CO₂, which are not emitted by the same sources, we infer the ratio of CH₄ emissions (from leaks in the natural gas infrastructure) to CO₂ emissions (from fossil fuel combustion) in Philadelphia. Comparison of the CH₄/CO₂ emission ratios to emission inventories from the Environmental Protection Agency suggests underestimates in CH₄ emissions by almost a factor of 4. These results demonstrate the need for the addition of long-term observations of CH₄ and CO₂ to existing monitoring networks in urban areas to better constrain emissions and complement existing measurements of NO_X and CO.

Dry sonication process for preparation of hybrid structures based on graphene and carbon nanotubes usable for chemical sensors

The combination of graphene (G) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) creates three-dimensional hybrid structures particularly suitable as next-generation electrical interface materials. Nevertheless, efficient mixing of the nanopowders is challenging, unless previous disaggregation and eventual surface modification of both is reached. To avoid use of solvents and multistep purification process for synthesis of stable G/MWCNTs hybrids, herein, a novel dry method based on an air sonication process was used. Taking advantage from the vigorous turbulent currents generated by powerful ultrasonication in air that induces strong thermal convection or radiation to and from the particles, it simultaneously ensures disentanglement of the large MWCNT bundles and G exfoliation and their only mild surface modifications. By changing the ratio between MWCNTs and G, a range of hybrids was obtained, different in surface morphology and chemistry. These hybrids have shown great potential as sensing material for designing mass-based sensors for toxic gases and chemiresistor for vapors detection.

Constraining Urban CO2 Emissions Using Mobile Observations from a Light Rail Public Transit Platform

Urban environments are characterized by pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity, which can present sampling challenges when utilizing conventional greenhouse gas (GHG) measurement systems. In Salt Lake City, Utah, a GHG instrument was deployed on a light rail train car that continuously traverses the Salt Lake Valley (SLV) through a range of urban typologies. CO₂ measurements from a light rail train car were used within a Bayesian inverse modeling framework to constrain urban emissions across the SLV during the fall of 2015. The primary objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate whether ground-based mobile measurements could be used to constrain urban emissions using an inverse modeling framework and (2) quantify the information that mobile observations provided relative to conventional GHG monitoring networks. Preliminary results suggest that ingesting mobile measurements into an inverse modeling framework generated a posterior emission estimate that more closely aligned with observations, reduced posterior emission uncertainties, and extends the geographical extent of emission adjustments.

Investigation of the Spatial Distribution of Methane Sources in the Greater Toronto Area Using Mobile Gas Monitoring Systems

For methane emission reduction strategies in urban areas to be effective, large emitters must be identified. Recent studies in U.S. cities have highlighted the contribution of methane emissions from natural gas distribution networks and end use. We present a methane emission source identification and quantification method for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the largest metropolitan area in Canada, using mobile gas monitoring systems. From May 2018 to August 2019, we collected 77 surveys of methane mixing ratios, covering a distance of about 6400 km, and sampled emission plumes from sources such as closed landfills, natural gas compressor stations, and waterways. Our results indicate that inactive landfills emit less than inventory estimates. Despite this discrepancy, we confirm that the waste sector is the largest methane emitter in the GTA. We also report that the frequency of methane leaks from the local distribution system ranges between 4 and 22 leaks per 100 km of roadway in downtown Toronto, which is comparable to the range observed in U.S. cities, which have invested in modern natural gas distribution infrastructure. Last, we find that engineered waterways, whose emissions are currently not reported in inventories, may be a significant source of methane.

An enhanced procedure for urban mobile methane leak detection

Leaked methane from natural gas distribution pipelines is a significant human and environmental health problem in urban areas. To assess this risk, urban mobile methane leak surveys were conducted, using innovative methodology, on the streets of Hartford, Danbury, and New London, Connecticut, in March 2019. The Hartford survey was done to determine if results from a 2016 survey (Keyes et al., 2019) were persistent, and surveys in additional towns were done to determine if similar findings could be made using an identical approach. Results show that Hartford continues to be problematic, with approximately 3.4 leaks per road mile observed in 2016 and 4.3 leaks per mile estimated in 2019, similar to that previously found in Boston, Massachusetts (Phillips et al., 2013). A preliminary estimate of methane leaks in Hartford is 0.86 metric tonnes per day (or 313 metric tonnes per year), equivalent to 42,840 cubic feet per day of natural gas, and a daily gas consumption of approximately 214 U.S. households. Moreover, the surveys and analyses done for Danbury and New London also reveal problematic leaks, particularly for Danbury with an estimated 3.6 leaks per mile. Although road miles covered in New London were more limited, the survey revealed leak-prone areas, albeit with a range of methane readings lower than those in Hartford and Danbury. Data collection methods for all studies is first reported here and are readily transferable to similar urban settings. This work demonstrates the actionable value that can be gained from data-driven evaluations of urban pipeline performance, and if supplemented with a map of leak-prone pipe geo-location, and information on pipeline operating pressures, will provide a spatial database facilitating proactive repair and replacement of leak-prone urban pipes, a considerable improvement compared to reactive mitigation of human-reported leaks. While this work pertains to the selected urban towns in the Northeast, it exemplifies issues and opportunities nationwide in the United States.

Using the BFAST Algorithm and Multitemporal AIRS Data to Investigate Variation of Atmospheric Methane Concentration over Zoige Wetland of China

The monitoring of wetland methane (CH4) emission is essential in the context of global CH4 emission and climate change. The remotely sensed multitemporal Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CH4 data and the Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) algorithm were used to detect atmospheric CH4 dynamics in the Zoige wetland, China between 2002 and 2018. The overall atmospheric CH4 concentration increased steadily with a rate of 5.7 ± 0.3 ppb/year. After decomposing the time-series of CH4 data using the BFAST algorithm, we found no anomalies in the seasonal and error components. The trend component increased with time, and a total of seven breaks were detected within four cells. Six were well-explained by the air temperature anomalies primarily, but one break was not. The effect of parameter h on decomposition outcomes was studied because it could influence the number of breaks in the trend component. As h increased, the number of breaks decreased. The interplays of the observations of interest, break numbers, and statistical significance should determine the h value.

Policy-Relevant Assessment of Urban CO2 Emissions

Global fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO₂) emissions will be dictated to a great degree by the trajectory of emissions from urban areas. Conventional methods to quantify urban FFCO₂ emissions typically rely on self-reported economic/energy activity data transformed into emissions via standard emission factors. However, uncertainties in these traditional methods pose a roadblock to implementation of effective mitigation strategies, independently monitor long-term trends, and assess policy outcomes. Here, we demonstrate the applicability of the integration of a dense network of greenhouse gas sensors with a science-driven building and street-scale FFCO₂ emissions estimation through the atmospheric CO₂ inversion process. Whole-city FFCO₂ emissions agree within 3% annually. Current self-reported inventory emissions for the city of Indianapolis are 35% lower than our optimal estimate, with significant differences across activity sectors. Differences remain, however, regarding the spatial distribution of sectoral FFCO₂ emissions, underconstrained despite the inclusion of coemitted species information.

A National Estimate of Methane Leakage from Pipeline Mains in Natural Gas Local Distribution Systems

We estimate methane emissions from U.S. local distribution natural gas (NG) pipes using data collected from an advanced mobile leak detection (AMLD) platform. We estimate that there are 630,000 leaks in U.S. distribution mains, resulting in methane emissions of 0.69 Tg/year (95% cr int: 0.25, 1.23). Total emissions are calculated as the product of activity factors and emissions factors. Our analysis leveraged data on >4000 leak indications found using AMLD, combined with utility pipeline GIS information, to allow us to estimate activity factors. We derive emissions factors from AMLD emission rate estimates and correct these emissions factors based on data from in-field studies assessing AMLD emissions estimates. Finally, we quantify uncertainty in both emissions factors and activity factors and propagate the uncertainty to our total emissions estimate. In modeling leak frequency, we find a clear interaction between pipeline material and age with the leakiness of all material types increasing with age. Our national methane emissions estimate is approximately 5× greater (95% cr int: 1.7×, 8.7×) than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's current greenhouse gas inventory estimate for pipeline mains in local distribution systems due to both a larger estimated number of leaks and better characterization of the upper tail of the skewed distribution of emission rates.

Quantifying Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Water Heaters

Methane emissions from natural gas appliances remain the least characterized portion of the fossil-fuel supply chain. Here we examine water heaters from 64 northern California homes to (1) quantify methane emissions from natural gas leaks and incomplete combustion while off, turning on or off, and in steady-state operation from 35 homes; and (2) characterize daily usage patterns over ∼1-2 months per water heater to estimate activity factors from 46 homes. Individual tankless water heaters emitted 2390 [95% CI: 2250, 2540] g CH₄ yr^-1 on average, 0.93% [0.87%, 0.99%] of their natural gas consumed, primarily from on/off pulses. Storage water heaters emitted 1400 [1240, 1560] g CH₄ yr^-1 on average, 0.39% [0.34%, 0.43%] of their natural gas consumption. Despite higher methane emissions, tankless water heaters generate 29% less CO₂e₂₀ than storage water heaters because they use less energy to heat a unit of water. Scaling our measured emissions by the number of storage and tankless water heaters in the United States (56.8 and 1.2 million, respectively), water heaters overall emitted an estimated 82.3 [73.2, 91.5] Gg CH₄ yr^-1, 0.40% [0.35%, 0.44%] of all natural gas consumed by these appliances, comparable in percentage to the EPA's estimate of methane emissions from upstream natural gas production.

Wintertime CO2, CH4, and CO Emissions Estimation for the Washington, DC-Baltimore Metropolitan Area Using an Inverse Modeling Technique

Since greenhouse gas mitigation efforts are mostly being implemented in cities, the ability to quantify emission trends for urban environments is of paramount importance. However, previous aircraft work has indicated large daily variability in the results. Here we use measurements of CO2, CH4, and CO from aircraft over 5 days within an inverse model to estimate emissions from the DC-Baltimore region. Results show good agreement with previous estimates in the area for all three gases. However, aliasing caused by irregular spatiotemporal sampling of emissions is shown to significantly impact both the emissions estimates and their variability. Extensive sensitivity tests allow us to quantify the contributions of different sources of variability and indicate that daily variability in posterior emissions estimates is larger than the uncertainty attributed to the method itself (i.e., 17% for CO2, 24% for CH4, and 13% for CO). Analysis of hourly reported emissions from power plants and traffic counts shows that 97% of the daily variability in posterior emissions estimates is explained by accounting for the sampling in time and space of sources that have large hourly variability and, thus, caution must be taken in properly interpreting variability that is caused by irregular spatiotemporal sampling conditions.

Beyond-the-Meter: Unaccounted Sources of Methane Emissions in the Natural Gas Distribution Sector

The United States Environmental Protection Agency maintains an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Methane (CH₄), a potent gas with a global warming potential 86-125× that of carbon dioxide (CO₂) over a twenty-year period, is the main component of natural gas (NG). As NG becomes an increasingly larger percentage of the energy resources used in the United States, it is ever more important to evaluate the CH₄ emissions inventory. However, the inventory also does not account for all possible sources of CH₄ leaks, contributing to uncertainty in the national CH₄ inventory. Discrepancies between top-down and bottom-up inventories of CH₄ emissions imply that there are significant unaccounted-for sources of CH₄ leaks, especially over cities. Diffuse CH₄ plumes above cities that are not attributable to distribution pipelines or other NG infrastructure suggest many small beyond-the-meter leaks together contribute to large emissions. Here, we evaluate the distribution sector of the CH₄ emissions inventory and make suggestions to improve the inventory by analyzing end-user emissions. Preliminary research into beyond-the-meter emissions suggests that while individually small, the appliances and buildings that make up the residential sector could contribute significantly to national scale emissions. Furnaces are the most leak-prone of appliances, contributing to 0.14% of total CH₄ emissions from the NG sector in the United States. Combining measurements from whole house emissions and steady-state operation of appliances, we estimate that residential homes and appliances could release 9.1 Gg CH₄ yearly in the United States, totaling over 2% of the CH₄ released from the NG sector. While factors such as appliance age and usage, climate, and residential setting could influence the emissions profile of individual appliances, these preliminary estimates justify further exploration of beyond-the-meter emissions.

Seasonal and diurnal variations of greenhouse gases in Florence (Italy): Inferring sources and sinks from carbon isotopic ratios

In this study, the results of a continuous monitoring of (i) CO₂ fluxes, and (ii) CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations and carbon isotopic ratios (δ¹³C-CO₂ and δ¹³C-CH₄) in air, carried out from 7 to 21 July 2017 and from October 10 to December 15, 2017 in the city centre of Florence, are presented. The measurements were performed from the roof of the historical building of the Ximenes Observatory. CO₂ flux data revealed that the metropolitan area acted as a net source of CO₂ during the whole observation period. According to the Keeling plot analysis, anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric CO₂ were mainly represented by vehicular traffic (about 30%) and natural gas combustion (about 70%), the latter contributing 7 times more in December than in July. Moreover, the measured CO₂ fluxes were about 80% higher in fall than in summer, confirming that domestic heating based on natural gas is the dominant CO₂ emitting source in the municipality of Florence. Even though the continuous monitoring revealed a shift in the δ¹³C-CO₂ values related to photosynthetic uptake of atmospheric CO₂, the isotopic effect induced by plant activity was restricted to few hours in October and, to a lesser extent, in November. This suggests that urban planning policies should be devoted to massively increase green infrastructures in the metropolitan area in order to counterbalance anthropogenic emissions. During fall, the atmospheric CH₄ concentrations were sensibly higher with respect to those recorded in summer, whilst the δ¹³C-CH₄ values shifted towards heavier values. The Keeling plot analysis suggested that urban CH₄ emissions were largely related to fugitive emissions from the natural gas distribution pipeline network. On the other hand, δ¹³C-CH₄ monitoring allowed to recognize vehicular traffic as a minor CH₄ emitting source.

Greenhouse gas observations from the Northeast Corridor tower network

We present the organization, structure, instrumentation, and measurements of the Northeast Corridor greenhouse gas observation network. This network of tower-based in situ carbon dioxide and methane observation stations was established in 2015 with the goal of quantifying emissions of these gases in urban areas in the northeastern United States. A specific focus of the network is the cities of Baltimore, MD, and Washington, DC, USA, with a high density of observation stations in these two urban areas. Additional observation stations are scattered throughout the northeastern US, established to complement other existing urban and regional networks and to investigate emissions throughout this complex region with a high population density and multiple metropolitan areas. Data described in this paper are archived at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and can be found at https://doi.org/10.18434/M32126 (Karion et al., 2019).

Self-attenuation corrections for radium measurements of oil and gas solids by gamma spectroscopy

Beneficial reuse and resource recovery of produced water often require treatment to remove radium before valuable products are extracted. The radium content of the treatment waste solids and beneficial products must be accurately determined when evaluating the efficacy and social validity of such treatments. While gamma spectroscopy remains the recommended method for radium measurements, these measurements can be impacted by the composition/mineralogy of the solids, which influence the attenuation of the gamma decay energy - with denser sediments incurring greater degrees of attenuation. This self-attenuation must be accounted for when accurately measuring radium, otherwise radium measurements are found to be inaccurate, sometimes by as much as 50%. To meet industry needs, measurements should be both accurate and rapid, even for small sample sizes. Consequently, we propose a rapid method for accurate radium measurements with an empirical technique to account for sample attenuation in well-detector gamma spectroscopy. This technique utilizes the sample density and sample volume in the measuring vial. These corrections are relevant to a wide range of solid samples and sediment densities that may be encountered during treatment and management of oil and gas solids, including clays, environmental sediment samples, sand grains, and precipitated salts. These corrections can also be applied for situations were low volumes of material are present, as in bench scale studies, thereby rendering this technique applicable to a wider range of scenarios.

Greenhouse gas observations from the Northeast Corridor tower network

We present the organization, structure, instrumentation, and measurements of the Northeast Corridor greenhouse gas observation network. This network of tower-based in situ carbon dioxide and methane observation stations was established in 2015 with the goal of quantifying emissions of these gases in urban areas in the northeastern United States. A specific focus of the network is the cities of Baltimore, MD, and Washington, DC, USA, with a high density of observation stations in these two urban areas. Additional observation stations are scattered throughout the northeastern US, established to complement other existing urban and regional networks and to investigate emissions throughout this complex region with a high population density and multiple metropolitan areas. Data described in this paper are archived at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and can be found at https://doi.org/10.18434/M32126 (Karion et al., 2019).

Seasonally Resolved Excess Urban Methane Emissions from the Baltimore/Washington, DC Metropolitan Region

Urban areas are increasingly recognized as an important source of methane (CH₄), but we have limited seasonally resolved observations of these regions. In this study, we quantify seasonal and annual urban CH₄ emissions over the Baltimore, Maryland, and Washington, DC metropolitan regions. We use CH₄ atmospheric observations from four tall tower stations and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to simulate CH₄ concentrations at these stations. We directly compare these simulations with observations and use a geostatistical inversion method to determine optimal emissions to match our observations. We use observations spanning four seasons and employ an ensemble approach considering multiple meteorological representations, emission inventories, and upwind CH₄ values. Forward simulations in winter, spring, and fall underestimate observed atmospheric CH₄ while in summer, simulations overestimate observations because of excess modeled wetland emissions. With ensemble geostatistical inversions, the optimized annual emissions in DC/Baltimore are 39 ± 9 Gg/month (1 δ), 2.0 ± 0.4 times higher than the ensemble mean of bottom-up emission inventories. We find a modest seasonal variability of urban CH₄ emissions not captured in current inventories, with optimized summer emissions ∼41% lower than winter, broadly consistent with expectations if emissions are dominated by fugitive natural gas sources that correlate with natural gas usage.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND SAFETY PERFORMANCE OF GAS UTILITIES IN THE UNITED STATES

The performance of energy service providers has important environmental and safety consequences in local communities. This paper uses a novel dataset compiled from operator reports and infrastructure monitoring data obtained from three different US federal agencies to assess the performance of retail gas utilities nationwide in terms of addressing gas leaks and minimizing leak volumes. Our panel data set includes yearly observations for 727 retail gas utilities from 2009 to 2017. We show that safety hazards and environmental costs of gas leaks are widespread across providers that vary in terms of ownership, size, and region. We then use series of Bayesian hierarchical models to regress four outcome variables--hazardous leaks, end-year unfixed leaks, total gas volume leaked, and significant incidents--on infrastructure conditions, regional service context, and socio-economic service population characteristics. Unlike what is observed in other critical infrastructure cases such as drinking water, socioeconomic conditions are not strongly predictive of service outcomes. Public utilities exhibit better environmental performance on average, and no difference in maintenance backlogs. Because the environmental costs of poor performance--primarily in terms of methane greenhouse gas emissions--are predominantly social, policy tools such as consolidation and privatization are unlikely to improve environmental outcomes.

Atmospheric Monitoring of Methane in Beijing Using a Mobile Observatory

Cities have multiple fugitive emission sources of methane (CH4) and policies adopted by China on replacing coal with natural gas in recent years can cause fine spatial heterogeneities at the range of kilometers within a city and also contribute to the CH4 inventory. In this study, a mobile observatory was used to monitor the real-time CH4 concentrations at fine spatial and temporal resolutions in Beijing, the most important pilot city of energy transition. Results showed that: several point sources, such as a liquefied natural gas (LNG) power plant which has not been included in the Chinese national greenhouse gas inventory yet, can be identified; the ratio “fingerprints” (CH4:CO2) for an LNG carrier, LNG filling station, and LNG power plant show a shape of “L”; for city observations, the distribution of CH4 concentration, in the range of 1940–2370 ppbv, had small variations while that in the rural area had a much higher concentration gradient; significant correlations between CO2 and CH4 concentrations were found in the rural area but in the urban area there were no such significant correlations; a shape of “L” of CH4:CO2 ratios is obtained in the urban area in wintertime and it is assigned to fugitive emissions from LNG sources. This mobile measurement methodology is capable of monitoring point and non-point CH4 sources in Beijing and the observation results could improve the CH4 inventory and inform relevant policy-making on emission reduction in China.

Using Lidar Technology To Assess Urban Air Pollution and Improve Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Boston

Simulation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is key for forecasting air quality and estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in cities. Here we conducted the first long-term and continuous study of PBL heights (PBLHs) in Boston, MA, using a compact lidar instrument. We developed an image recognition algorithm to estimate PBLHs from the lidar measurements and evaluated simulations of the PBL from seven numerical weather prediction (NWP) model versions, which showed different systematic errors and variability in simulating the PBLHs (discrepancies from -2.5 to 4.0 km). The NWP model with the best overall agreement for the fully developed PBL had R² = 0.72 and a bias of only 0.128 km. However, this model predicted a notable number of anomalously high carbon dioxide concentrations at ground stations, because it occasionally significantly underestimated the PBLH. We also developed a novel method that combines lidar data with footprints from a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to identify long-range transport of air pollution in the nocturnal residual layer. Our framework was powerful in evaluating the performance of models used to estimate air pollution and GHG emissions in cities, which is critical to track progress on emission reduction targets and guide effective policies.

Shale gas transmission and housing prices

In this study, we exploit residential property sales data in New York to value the external environmental costs of the proposed Constitution Pipeline, a high-capacity transmission pipeline designed to transport hydraulically-fractured natural gas in Pennsylvania to large northeastern markets. Results from difference-in-differences models suggest post-announcement price declines of 9% (~$12,000) for those properties located within three kilometers of the pipeline. These results are strongly robust to different specifications and subsets of the data, as well as falsification testing. Additionally, we find some evidence of attenuation in our treatment effect over time, which is indicative of either declining salience or expectations of the pipeline over time. Our results suggest that homebuyer expectations of the environmental externalities of natural gas pipeline construction and operations are large and negative.

Large Fugitive Methane Emissions From Urban Centers Along the U.S. East Coast

Urban emissions remain an underexamined part of the methane budget. Here we present and interpret aircraft observations of six old and leak-prone major cities along the East Coast of the United States. We use direct observations of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ethane (C2H6), and their correlations to quantify CH4 emissions and attribute to natural gas. We find the five largest cities emit 0.85 (0.63, 1.12) Tg CH4/year, of which 0.75 (0.49, 1.10) Tg CH4/year is attributed to natural gas. Our estimates, which include all thermogenic methane sources including end use, are more than twice that reported in the most recent gridded EPA inventory, which does not include end-use emissions. These results highlight that current urban inventory estimates of natural gas emissions are substantially low, either due to underestimates of leakage, lack of inclusion of end-use emissions, or some combination thereof.

Atmospheric observation-based estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from regions of central and southern California

Combustion of fossil fuel is the dominant source of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere in California. Here, we describe radiocarbon (¹⁴CO₂) measurements and atmospheric inverse modeling to estimate fossil fuel CO₂ (ffCO₂) emissions for 2009-2012 from a site in central California, and for June 2013-May 2014 from two sites in southern California. A priori predicted ffCO₂ mixing ratios are computed based on regional atmospheric transport model (WRF-STILT) footprints and an hourly ffCO₂ prior emission map (Vulcan 2.2). Regional inversions using observations from the central California site suggest that emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) are higher in winter and lower in summer. Taking all years together, the average of a total of fifteen 3-month inversions from 2009 to 2012 suggests ffCO₂ emissions from SFBA were within 6 ± 35% of the a priori estimate for that region, where posterior emission uncertainties are reported as 95% confidence intervals. Results for four 3-month inversions using measurements in Los Angeles South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) during June 2013-May 2014 suggest that emissions in SoCAB are within 13 ± 28% of the a priori estimate for that region, with marginal detection of any seasonality. While emissions from the SFBA and SoCAB urban regions (containing ~50% of prior emissions from California) are constrained by the observations, emissions from the remaining regions are less constrained, suggesting that additional observations will be valuable to more accurately estimate total ffCO₂ emissions from California as a whole.

Atmospheric Methane Concentration Allows Estimating Natural Gas Leaks in Heating Systems in Tandil, Argentina

Residential use of natural gas (NG) for heating and cooking purposes may contribute significantly to CH emissions to the atmosphere. To analyze whether the NG demand in the city of Tandil, Argentina, contributes to the increase in atmospheric CH concentration, we conducted systematic collections of time-integrated air samples for a year in six city sites with different population and built-up density. Some meteorological parameters and NG consumption were registered. Atmospheric CH concentration ranged from 1.12 to 1.95 mg m (1.72 to 2.84 ppm) with significant seasonal and spatial variations. In all the sites, with the exception of a peri-urban site bordering rural areas, the maximum CH concentrations were measured during the coldest months, with a statistically significant correlation between residential and commercial NG consumption with respect to air temperature ( < 0.001, = -0.84 to -0.69) and atmospheric CH concentration ( < 0.05, = 0.58 to 0.94). In Argentina, the most popular home heating system is the balanced-draft heater, which has a thermal efficiency of 39 to 63%. This low efficiency allows us to attribute the highest atmospheric CH concentration found during the coldest months mainly to the leaks of the heating systems and the greater residential use of NG. Repairing the gas leaks by increasing thermal efficiency or replacing heating systems with more efficient ones will bring economic, environmental, and health benefits. This study is important for our country where the dependence on the use of NG from heating systems is significant.

Anthropogenic CH4 Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Based on A “Top-Down” Method

There remains significant uncertainty in the estimation of anthropogenic CH4 emissions at local and regional scales. We used atmospheric CH4 and CO2 concentration data to constrain the anthropogenic CH4 emission in the Yangtze River Delta one of the most populated and economically important regions in China. The observation of atmospheric CH4 and CO2 concentration was carried out from May 2012 to April 2017 at a rural site. A tracer correlation method was used to estimate the anthropogenic CH4 emission in this region, and compared this “top-down” estimate with that obtained with the IPCC inventory method. The annual growth rates of the atmospheric CO2 and CH4 mole fractions are 2.5 ± 0.7 ppm year−1 and 9.5 ± 4.7 ppb year−1, respectively, which are 9% and 53% higher than the values obtained at Waliguan (WLG) station. The average annual anthropogenic CH4 emission is 4.37 (± 0.61) × 109 kg in the YRD (excluding rice cultivation). This “top-down” estimate is 20–70% greater than the estimate based on the IPCC method. We suggest that possible sources for the discrepancy include low biases in the IPCC calculation of emission from landfills, ruminants and the transport sector.