Resilience and reactivity of global food security

Unraveling the mesoscale organization induced by network-driven processes

Complex systems are characterized by emergent patterns created by the nontrivial interplay between dynamical processes and the networks of interactions on which these processes unfold. Topological or dynamical descriptors alone are not enough to fully embrace this interplay in all its complexity, and many times one has to resort to dynamics-specific approaches that limit a comprehension of general principles. To address this challenge, we employ a metric-that we name Jacobian distance-which captures the spatiotemporal spreading of perturbations, enabling us to uncover the latent geometry inherent in network-driven processes. We compute the Jacobian distance for a broad set of nonlinear dynamical models on synthetic and real-world networks of high interest for applications from biological to ecological and social contexts. We show, analytically and computationally, that the process-driven latent geometry of a complex network is sensitive to both the specific features of the dynamics and the topological properties of the network. This translates into potential mismatches between the functional and the topological mesoscale organization, which we explain by means of the spectrum of the Jacobian matrix. Finally, we demonstrate that the Jacobian distance offers a clear advantage with respect to traditional methods when studying human brain networks. In particular, we show that it outperforms classical network communication models in explaining functional communities from structural data, therefore highlighting its potential in linking structure and function in the brain.

Diversifying crop rotation increases food production, reduces net greenhouse gas emissions and improves soil health

Global food production faces challenges in balancing the need for increased yields with environmental sustainability. This study presents a six-year field experiment in the North China Plain, demonstrating the benefits of diversifying traditional cereal monoculture (wheat-maize) with cash crops (sweet potato) and legumes (peanut and soybean). The diversified rotations increase equivalent yield by up to 38%, reduce N2O emissions by 39%, and improve the system's greenhouse gas balance by 88%. Furthermore, including legumes in crop rotations stimulates soil microbial activities, increases soil organic carbon stocks by 8%, and enhances soil health (indexed with the selected soil physiochemical and biological properties) by 45%. The large-scale adoption of diversified cropping systems in the North China Plain could increase cereal production by 32% when wheat-maize follows alternative crops in rotation and farmer income by 20% while benefiting the environment. This study provides an example of sustainable food production practices, emphasizing the significance of crop diversification for long-term agricultural resilience and soil health.

Reactivity of complex communities can be more important than stability

Understanding stability-whether a community will eventually return to its original state after a perturbation-is a major focus in the study of various complex systems, particularly complex ecosystems. Here, we challenge this focus, showing that short-term dynamics can be a better predictor of outcomes for complex ecosystems. Using random matrix theory, we study how complex ecosystems behave immediately after small perturbations. Our analyses show that many communities are expected to be 'reactive', whereby some perturbations will be amplified initially and generate a response that is directly opposite to that predicted by typical stability measures. In particular, we find reactivity is prevalent for complex communities of mixed interactions and for structured communities, which are both expected to be common in nature. Finally, we show that reactivity can be a better predictor of extinction risk than stability, particularly when communities face frequent perturbations, as is increasingly common. Our results suggest that, alongside stability, reactivity is a fundamental measure for assessing ecosystem health.

Global trade network patterns are coupled to fisheries sustainability

The rapid development of seafood trade networks alongside the decline in biomass of many marine populations raises important questions about the role of global trade in fisheries sustainability. Mounting empirical and theoretical evidence shows the importance of trade development on commercially exploited species. However, there is limited understanding of how the development of trade networks, such as differences in connectivity and duration, affects fisheries sustainability. In a global analysis of over 400,000 bilateral trade flows and stock status estimates for 876 exploited fish and marine invertebrates from 223 territories, we reveal patterns between seafood trade network indicators and fisheries sustainability using a dynamic panel regression analysis. We found that fragmented networks with strong connectivity within a group of countries and weaker links between those groups (modularity) are associated with higher relative biomass. From 1995 to 2015, modularity fluctuated, and the number of trade connections (degree) increased. Unlike previous studies, we found no relationship between the number or duration of trade connections and fisheries sustainability. Our results highlight the need to jointly investigate fisheries and trade. Improved coordination and partnerships between fisheries authorities and trade organizations present opportunities to foster more sustainable fisheries.

A sustainable food future

The adverse environmental impacts of food production, the ill-health resulting from excess consumption and malnutrition, and the lack of resilience to the increasing number of threats to food availability show that the global system of food provision is not fit for purpose. Here, the causative flaws in the food system are identified and a framework presented for discovering the best ways to eliminate them. This framework is based upon an integrated view of the food system and the socio-economic systems in which it functions. The framework comprises an eight-point plan to describe the structure and functioning of the food system and to discover the optimum ways to bring about the changes needed to deliver a sustainable food future. The plan includes: priorities for research needed to provide options for change; an inclusive analytical methodology that uses the results of this research and incorporates acquisition, sharing and analysis of data; the need for actions at the local and national levels; and the requirements to overcome the barriers to change through education and international cooperation. The prospects for implementation of the plan and the required changes in the outcomes of the food system are discussed.

Effects of conversion of coastal marshes to aquaculture ponds on sediment anaerobic CO2 production and emission in a subtropical estuary of China

The extensive conversion of carbon-rich coastal wetland to aquaculture ponds in the Asian Pacific region has caused significant changes to the sediment properties and carbon cycling. Using field sampling and incubation experiments, the sediment anaerobic CO₂ production and CO₂ emission flux were compared between a brackish marsh and the nearby constructed aquaculture ponds in the Min River Estuary in southeastern China over a three-year period. Marsh sediment had a higher total carbon and lower C:N ratio than aquaculture pond sediment, suggesting the importance of marsh vegetation in supplying labile organic carbon to the sediment. Conversion to aquaculture ponds significantly decreased sediment anaerobic CO₂ production rates by 69.2% compared to the brackish marsh, but increased CO₂ emission, turning the CO₂ sink (-490.8 ± 42.0 mg m^-2 h^-1 in brackish marsh) into a source (6.2 ± 3.9 mg m^-2 h^-1 in aquaculture pond). Clipping the marsh vegetation resulted in the highest CO₂ emission flux (382.6 ± 46.7 mg m^-2 h^-1), highlighting the critical role of marsh vegetation in capturing and sequestering carbon. Sediment anaerobic CO₂ production and CO₂ uptake (in brackish marsh) and emission (in aquaculture ponds) were highest in the summer, followed by autumn, spring and winter. Redundancy analysis and structural equation modeling showed that the changes of sediment temperature, salinity and total carbon content accounted for more than 50% of the variance in CO₂ production and emission. Overall, the results indicate that vegetation clearing was the main cause of change in CO₂ production and emission in the land conversion, and marsh replantation should be a primary strategy to mitigate the climate impact of the aquaculture sector.

Evolution of global food trade network and its effects on population nutritional status

Changes in food systems during the last decades fostered the establishment of global food networks based on exchanges between countries with different income levels. Recent studies explored configuration and factors associated with trade networks of specific food items during limited periods; however, there is lack of evidence on evolution of trade networks of foods for human consumption and its potential effects on population nutritional status. We present the evolution of the global trade network of foods for human consumption from 1986 to 2020, according to country income level, and we explore potential effects of country network centrality and globalization processes on the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Results show intensification of international food trade and globalization processes in the period of analysis with implications for population nutritional status worldwide.

Diversifying agrifood systems to ensure global food security following the Russia–Ukraine crisis

The recent Russia–Ukraine conflict has raised significant concerns about global food security, leaving many countries with restricted access to imported staple food crops, particularly wheat and sunflower oil, sending food prices soaring with other adverse consequences in the food supply chain. This detrimental effect is particularly prominent for low-income countries relying on grain imports, with record-high food prices and inflation affecting their livelihoods. This review discusses the role of Russia and Ukraine in the global food system and the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security. It also highlights how diversifying four areas of agrifood systems—markets, production, crops, and technology can contribute to achieving food supply chain resilience for future food security and sustainability.

Food Production and Consumption in Ordos of Inner Mongolia

Ordos is an ecological fragile area in the upstream and midstream of the Yellow River and a component of the ecological security barrier on the northern frontier of China. With population growth in recent years, the contradiction between human beings and land resources has become increasingly prominent, leading to increased food security risks. Since 2000, the local government has implemented a series of ecological projects to guide farmers and herdsmen to transform from extensive production to intensive production, which has optimized the pattern of food production and consumption. It is necessary to study the balance between food supply and demand to evaluate food self-sufficiency. Here, we used the panel data from 2000 to 2020 collected based on random sampling surveys to reveal the characteristics of food production and consumption, the changes in food self-sufficiency rate and the dependence of food consumption on local production in Ordos. The results showed that food production and consumption dominated by grains have been increasing. The residents' diets were characterized by excessive consumption of grains and meat, and insufficient consumption of vegetables, fruits, and dairy foods. On the whole, the locality has achieved self-sufficiency, because the food supply exceeded the demand during the two decades. However, the self-sufficiency of different food types varied greatly, as some foods, such as wheat, rice, pork, poultry, and eggs, have not been self-sufficient. Due to the increased and diversified food demand of residents, food consumption became less dependent on local production and more dependent on food imported from the central and eastern China, which threatened local food security. The study can provide a scientific basis for decision-makers for the structural adjustment of agricultural and animal husbandry and the structural adjustment of food consumption, to ensure food security and sustainable utilization of land resources.

Reframing the local-global food systems debate through a resilience lens

Despite the growing knowledge that food system solutions should account for interactions and drivers across scales, broader societal debate on how to solve food system challenges is often focused on two dichotomous perspectives and associated solutions: either more localized food systems or greater global coordination of food systems. The debate has found problematic expressions in contemporary challenges, prompting us to revisit the role that resilience thinking can play when faced with complex crises that increase uncertainty. Here we identify four 'aching points' facing food systems that are central points of tension in the local-global debate. We apply the seven principles of resilience to these aching points to reframe the solution space to one that embeds resilience into food systems' management and governance at all scales, supporting transformative change towards sustainable food systems.

Identifying the Spatial–Temporal Pattern of Cropland’s Non-Grain Production and Its Effects on Food Security in China

Non-grain production of cropland (NGPCL) is a common phenomenon in the process of rapid urbanization in order to meet the diversified food demand and prosperity of the rural economy. However, excessive NGPCL will threaten grain production. How to control the moderate development of NGPCL in order to achieve the balance between food security and rural development has become a salient issue. In this study, we constructed a framework to measure NGPCL, revealed the spatial–temporal pattern of NGPCL, and then analyzed its influencing factors from the perspective of the human–land relationship. The results indicate that, firstly, the overall degree of NGPCL in China experienced an increase from 0.44 to 0.51, while the gap among cities was consistently enlarging, with the range value increasing from 0.74 to 0.91. Secondly, the spatial pattern of NGPCL was high in the northwest and southeast, and low in the northeast and central regions. The southern economic developed area exhibited the highest increase, while the Inner Mongolia, northwest China, and traditional agricultural areas experienced a decreasing trend in NGPCL. Thirdly, the spatial agglomeration of NGPCL has been intensified, with the Gansu–Xinjiang Desert plateau, southeast coastal economic belt, and urban agglomeration areas exhibiting a “high–high” agglomeration, while the traditional agricultural areas exhibited “low–low” agglomeration. Fourthly, NGPCL is positively correlated with the urbanization rate, land fragmentation, landscape diversity, land price, and grain production policy, while it is negatively linked with the agricultural employment rate, agricultural machinery level, and cultivated land per capita. The findings of this research are not only deepen the understanding of NGPCL, but are also of great significance for policy makers in order to propose targeted control measures.

Producing aromatic amino acid from corn husk by using polyols as intermediates

Agricultural biomass remains as one of the commonly found waste on Earth. Although valorisation of these wastes has been studied in detail, the fermentation-based processes still need improvement due to the high cost of hydrolysing enzymes, and the presence of growth inhibitors which constrains the fermentation to produce high-value products. To address these challenges, we developed an integrated process in this study combining abiotic- and bio-catalysis to produce l-tyrosine from corn husk. The first step involved a one-pot hydrolytic hydrogenation tandem reaction without the use of the expensive enzymes, which yielded a mixture of polyols and sugars. Without any purification, these crude hydrolysates can be almost completely utilized by an engineered Escherichia coli strain, which did not exhibit any growth inhibition. The strain produced 0.44 g/L l-tyrosine from 10 g/L crude corn husk hydrolysates, demonstrating the feasibility of converting agricultural biomass into a valuable aromatic amino acid via an integrated process.

Connected and extracted: Understanding how centrality in the global wheat supply chain affects global hunger using a network approach

While global food trade has allowed countries to buffer against domestic food production shortfalls and gain access to larger markets, engaging in trade has also opened economies up to shocks and increased extraction of food resources. With this research, we analyze how the global grain network influences country-level nourishment, while controlling for per capita land and food production. First, we model the trade network structure of the global wheat supply chain to measure the centrality or positionality of countries. We use spatial regression analysis to assess the impact of trade networks, volume, purchasing power, production capacity and geography on undernourishment. We find that the six countries most central to the global grain trade by betweenness and eigenvector centralities account for more than half of all wheat exports globally by volume. The centrality of these countries as opposed to volume of wheat produced or traded, determines their influence in the wheat supply chain network. The parametric component of our analysis confirms that trade, and centrality have significant implications for national levels of nourishment. Our findings suggest that for countries with low purchasing power, increasing centrality allows improvements in nourishment levels but for countries with very high purchasing power, increasing centrality can increase hunger outcomes. To counteract perturbations and shortfalls such as those being experienced currently in the globalized food system, local and regional governments may consider refocusing on regional and local based food systems.

RNA Interference: Promising Approach to Combat Plant Viruses

Plant viruses are devastating plant pathogens that severely affect crop yield and quality. Plants have developed multiple lines of defense systems to combat viral infection. Gene silencing/RNA interference is the key defense system in plants that inhibits the virulence and multiplication of pathogens. The general mechanism of RNAi involves (i) the transcription and cleavage of dsRNA into small RNA molecules, such as microRNA (miRNA), or small interfering RNA (siRNA), (ii) the loading of siRNA/miRNA into an RNA Induced Silencing Complex (RISC), (iii) complementary base pairing between siRNA/miRNA with a targeted gene, and (iv) the cleavage or repression of a target gene with an Argonaute (AGO) protein. This natural RNAi pathway could introduce transgenes targeting various viral genes to induce gene silencing. Different RNAi pathways are reported for the artificial silencing of viral genes. These include Host-Induced Gene Silencing (HIGS), Virus-Induced Gene Silencing (VIGS), and Spray-Induced Gene Silencing (SIGS). There are significant limitations in HIGS and VIGS technology, such as lengthy and time-consuming processes, off-target effects, and public concerns regarding genetically modified (GM) transgenic plants. Here, we provide in-depth knowledge regarding SIGS, which efficiently provides RNAi resistance development against targeted genes without the need for GM transgenic plants. We give an overview of the defense system of plants against viral infection, including a detailed mechanism of RNAi, small RNA molecules and their types, and various kinds of RNAi pathways. This review will describe how RNA interference provides the antiviral defense, recent improvements, and their limitations.

Behavioural impairment and oxidative stress by acute exposure of zebrafish to a commercial formulation of tebuconazole

Tebuconazole is a systemic follicular fungicide known to cause diverse problems in non-target organisms namely associated to the pure active ingredient. As such, the objective of this work was to evaluate developmental changes induced by a tebuconazole commercial formulation to a non-target animal model. Zebrafish embryos at ± 2 h post-fertilization were exposed to tebuconazole wettable powder concentrations (0.05, 0.5 and 5 mg L^-1) for 96 h with developmental toxicity assessed throughout the exposure period and biochemical parameters evaluated at the end of the exposure. Behavioural assessment (spatial exploration and response to stimuli) was conducted 24 h after the end of the exposure. While no developmental and physiological alterations were observed, exposure to tebuconazole resulted in an increased generation of reactive oxidative species at the 0.05 and 0.5 mg L^-1 concentrations and a decreased GPx activity at the 0.5 mg L^-1 concentration suggesting a potential protection mechanism. There was also a change in the avoidance-escape behaviour supporting an anxiolytic effect suggesting possible alterations in the central nervous system development demanding further studies.

Accuracy of a one-dimensional reduction of dynamical systems on networks

Resilience is an ability of a system with which the system can adjust its activity to maintain its functionality when it is perturbed. To study resilience of dynamics on networks, Gao et al. [Nature (London) 530, 307 (2016)0028-083610.1038/nature16948] proposed a theoretical framework to reduce dynamical systems on networks, which are high dimensional in general, to one-dimensional dynamical systems. The accuracy of this one-dimensional reduction relies on three approximations in addition to the assumption that the network has a negligible degree correlation. In the present study, we analyze the accuracy of the one-dimensional reduction assuming networks without degree correlation. We do so mainly through examining the validity of the individual assumptions underlying the method. Across five dynamical system models, we find that the accuracy of the one-dimensional reduction hinges on the spread of the equilibrium value of the state variable across the nodes in most cases. Specifically, the one-dimensional reduction tends to be accurate when the dispersion of the node's state is small. We also find that the correlation between the node's state and the node's degree, which is common for various dynamical systems on networks, is unrelated to the accuracy of the one-dimensional reduction.

Evolution of Global Food Trade Patterns and Its Implications for Food Security Based on Complex Network Analysis

Global food trade is an integral part of the food system, and plays an important role in food security. Based on complex network analyses, this paper analyzed the global food trade network (FTN) and its evolution from 1992 to 2018. The results show that: (1) food trade relations have increased and global FTN is increasingly complex, efficient, and tighter. (2) Global food trade communities have become more stable and the trade network has evolved from "unipolar" to "multipolar". (3) Over the nearly 30-year period, the core exporting countries have been stable and concentrated, while the core importing countries are relatively dispersed. The increasingly complex food trade network improves food availability and nutritional diversity; however, the food trade system, led by several large countries, has increased the vulnerability of some countries' food systems and brings about unsafe factors, such as global natural disasters and political instability. It is supposed to establish a food security community to protect the global food trade market, address multiple risks, and promote global food security.

Is Current Research on How Climate Change Impacts Global Food Security Really Objective?

Global food insecurity is becoming more severe under the threat of rising global carbon dioxide concentrations, increasing population, and shrinking farmlands and their degeneration. We acquired the ISI Web of Science platform for over 31 years (1988-2018) to review the research on how climate change impacts global food security, and then performed cluster analysis and research hotspot analysis with VosViewer software. We found there were two drawbacks that exist in the current research. Firstly, current field research data were defective because they were collected from various facilities and were hard to integrate. The other drawback is the representativeness of field research site selection as most studies were carried out in developed countries and very few in developing countries. Therefore, more attention should be paid to developing countries, especially some African and Asian countries. At the same time, new modified mathematical models should be utilized to process and integrate the data from various facilities and regions. Finally, we suggested that governments and organizations across the world should be united to wrestle with the impact of climate change on food security.

Microstructural Characteristics of the Weighted and Directed International Crop Trade Networks

With increasing global demand for food, international food trade is playing a critical role in balancing the food supply and demand across different regions. Here, using trade datasets of four crops that provide more than 50% of the calories consumed globally, we constructed four international crop trade networks (iCTNs). We observed the increasing globalization in the international crop trade and different trade patterns in different iCTNs. The distributions of node degrees deviate from power laws, and the distributions of link weights follow power laws. We also found that the in-degree is positively correlated with the out-degree, but negatively correlated with the clustering coefficient. This indicates that the numbers of trade partners affect the tendency of economies to form clusters. In addition, each iCTN exhibits a unique topology which is different from the whole food network studied by many researchers. Our analysis on the microstructural characteristics of different iCTNs provides highly valuable insights into distinctive features of specific crop trades and has potential implications for model construction and food security.

Integrated farming with intercropping increases food production while reducing environmental footprint

Food security has been a significant issue for the livelihood of smallholder family farms in highly populated regions and countries. Industrialized farming in more developed countries has increased global food supply to meet the demand, but the excessive use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides has negative environmental impacts. Finding sustainable ways to grow more food with a smaller environmental footprint is critical. We developed an integrated cropping system that incorporates four key components: 1) intensified cropping through relay planting or intercropping, 2) within-field strip rotation, 3) soil mulching with available means, such as crop straw, and 4) no-till or reduced tillage. Sixteen field experiments, conducted with a wide range of crop inputs over 12 consecutive years (2006 to 2017), showed that the integrated system with intercropping generates significant synergies-increasing annual crop yields by 15.6 to 49.9% and farm net returns by 39.2% and decreasing the environmental footprint by 17.3%-when compared with traditional monoculture cropping. We conclude that smallholder farmers can achieve the dual goals of growing more food and lowering the environmental footprint by adopting integrated farming systems.

Extreme climate events increase risk of global food insecurity and adaptation needs

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity and spatial extent of extreme climate events, and thus is a key concern for food production. However, food insecurity is usually analysed under a mean climate change state. Here we combine crop modelling and climate scenarios to estimate the effects of extreme climate events on future food insecurity. Relative to median-level climate change, we find that an additional 20-36% and 11-33% population may face hunger by 2050 under a once-per-100-yr extreme climate event under high and low emission scenarios, respectively. In some affected regions, such as South Asia, the amount of food required to offset such an effect is triple the region's current food reserves. Better-targeted food reserves and other adaptation measures could help fill the consumption gap in the face of extreme climate variability.

Supply chain diversity buffers cities against food shocks

Food supply shocks are increasing worldwide^1,2, particularly the type of shock wherein food production or distribution loss in one location propagates through the food supply chain to other locations^3,4. Analogous to biodiversity buffering ecosystems against external shocks^5,6, ecological theory suggests that food supply chain diversity is crucial for managing the risk of food shock to human populations^7,8. Here we show that boosting a city's food supply chain diversity increases the resistance of a city to food shocks of mild to moderate severity by up to 15 per cent. We develop an intensity-duration-frequency model linking food shock risk to supply chain diversity. The empirical-statistical model is based on annual food inflow observations from all metropolitan areas in the USA during the years 2012 to 2015, years when most of the country experienced moderate to severe droughts. The model explains a city's resistance to food shocks of a given frequency, intensity and duration as a monotonically declining function of the city's food inflow supply chain's Shannon diversity. This model is simple, operationally useful and addresses any kind of hazard. Using this method, cities can improve their resistance to food supply shocks with policies that increase the food supply chain's diversity.

A planetary boundaries perspective on the sustainability: resilience relationship in the Kenyan tea supply chain

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether agricultural supply chains (ASC) can be simultaneously sustainable and resilient to ecological disruptions, using the Planetary Boundaries theory. The nine different Planetary Boundaries i.e. climatic change, biodiversity loss, biogeochemical, ocean acidification, land use, freshwater availability, stratosphere ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosols and chemical pollution are examined in relation to ASC sustainability and resilience. Kenya's tea upstream supply chain sustainability and resilience from the ecological point of view is questioned. This study adopts a multi-case study analysis approach of nine producer organisations from Kenya's tea supply chain. The data from the in-depth semi-structured interviews and a focus group discussion are analysed using thematic analysis. The Kenyan tea supply chain producers are not aware of all the nine planetary boundaries, although these impact on their resilience practices. They are engaged in pursuing both sustainability and resilience practices. They implement mainly environmental practices in relation to sustainability, while only a few of them are implementing resilience practices. The sustainability and resilience concepts were found to be interrelated, but resilience does not improve at the same pace as sustainability. It is suggested that the relationship between sustainability and resilience is non-linear. Limitations and future research avenues are also provided.

Dimensionality reduction of complex dynamical systems

One of the outstanding problems in complexity science and engineering is the study of high-dimensional networked systems and of their susceptibility to transitions to undesired states as a result of changes in external drivers or in the structural properties. Because of the incredibly large number of parameters controlling the state of such complex systems and the heterogeneity of its components, the study of their dynamics is extremely difficult. Here we propose an analytical framework for collapsing complex N-dimensional networked systems into an S+1-dimensional manifold as a function of S effective control parameters with S << N. We test our approach on a variety of real-world complex problems showing how this new framework can approximate the system's response to changes and correctly identify the regions in the parameter space corresponding to the system's transitions. Our work offers an analytical method to evaluate optimal strategies in the design or management of networked systems.

•

We analytically collapse N-dimensional networked dynamics in low-dimensional manifolds

•

We test this approach on a variety of real-world complex problems

•

We accurately predict the system's response to changes in parameter values

•

We identify regions in parameter space corresponding to system's critical transitions

Towards food supply chain resilience to environmental shocks

Environmental variability and shock events can be propagated or attenuated along food supply chains by various economic, political and infrastructural factors. Understanding these processes is central to reducing risks associated with periodic food shortages, price spikes and reductions in food quality. Here we perform a scoping review of the literature to examine entry points for environmental variability along the food supply chain, the evidence of propagation or attenuation of this variability, and the food items and types of shock that have been studied. We find that research on food supply shocks has primarily focused on maize, rice and wheat, on agricultural production and on extreme rainfall and temperatures-indicating the need to expand research into the full food basket, diverse sources of environmental variability and the links connecting food production to consumption and nutrition. Insights from this new knowledge can inform key responses-at the level of an individual (for example, substituting foods), a company (for example, switching sources) or a government (for example, strategic reserves)-for coping with disruptions.

Blue water footprint linked to national consumption and international trade is unsustainable

Increasing pressure on the world's freshwater resources raises serious concerns about global food security and the sustainability of water use in agriculture. Here we quantify and map at a 5-arcmin spatial resolution the blue water footprint of each country's national consumption and where they infringe sustainable environmental flows as defined by the presumptive environmental flow standard or the 80% rule, in which runoff depletion by more than 20% will pose risk to ecosystems. We find that 52% of the blue water footprint of global consumption and 43% of international blue virtual water flows come from places where the sustainable environmental flow is violated. About 22% of the environmental flow infringement of the blue water footprint of global consumption lies outside the specific countries of consumption, indicating that a number of them have externalized their impacts. By establishing a link between the consumption of a product in one place and water scarcity in places far from the place of consumption, our assessment may aid a dialogue on how to assign and share responsibilities concerning water use.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Food Security

We present scientific perspectives on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and global food security. International organizations and current evidence based on other respiratory viruses suggests COVID-19 is not a food safety issue, i.e., there is no evidence associating food or food packaging with the transmission of the virus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), yet an abundance of precaution for this exposure route seems appropriate. The pandemic, however, has had a dramatic impact on the food system, with direct and indirect consequences on lives and livelihoods of people, plants, and animals. Given the complexity of the system at risk, it is likely that some of these consequences are still to emerge over time. To date, the direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic have been substantial including restrictions on agricultural workers, planting, current and future harvests; shifts in agricultural livelihoods and food availability; food safety; plant and animal health and animal welfare; human nutrition and health; along with changes in public policies. All aspects are crucial to food security that would require "One Health" approaches as the concept may be able to manage risks in a cost-effective way with cross-sectoral, coordinated investments in human, environmental, and animal health. Like climate change, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be most acutely felt by the poorest and most vulnerable countries and communities. Ultimately, to prepare for future outbreaks or threats to food systems, we must take into account the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations and a "Planetary Health" perspective.

Aquaculture at the crossroads of global warming and antimicrobial resistance

In many developing countries, aquaculture is key to ensuring food security for millions of people. It is thus important to measure the full implications of environmental changes on the sustainability of aquaculture. We conduct a double meta-analysis (460 articles) to explore how global warming and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) impact aquaculture. We calculate a Multi-Antibiotic Resistance index (MAR) of aquaculture-related bacteria (11,274 isolates) for 40 countries, of which mostly low- and middle-income countries present high AMR levels. Here we show that aquaculture MAR indices correlate with MAR indices from human clinical bacteria, temperature and countries’ climate vulnerability. We also find that infected aquatic animals present higher mortalities at warmer temperatures. Countries most vulnerable to climate change will probably face the highest AMR risks, impacting human health beyond the aquaculture sector, highlighting the need for urgent action. Sustainable solutions to minimise antibiotic use and increase system resilience are therefore needed.

Global environmental changes threaten many food-producing sectors, including aquaculture. Here the authors show that countries most vulnerable to climate change will probably face the highest antimicrobial resistance in aquaculture-related bacteria, and that infected aquatic animals have higher mortality at warmer temperatures.

How Does the Control of Grain Purchase Price Affect the Sustainability of the National Grain Industry? One Empirical Study from China

As one of the most important grain protection policies in China, the minimum purchase price policy prevents the fluctuation of grain output and protects the interests of farmers by regulating the prices of major grain varieties. For developing countries with a shortage of agricultural resources, represented by China, an in-depth study on the implementation effect and public satisfaction of this policy is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of the grain industry. Based on the interest demands of the government, farmers, grain enterprises and consumers, this paper constructs a policy satisfaction evaluation model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. The research shows that the implementation effect of this policy has promoted the sustainable development of China’s grain in four aspects: improving farmers’ enthusiasm for planting, optimizing the structure of supply and demand, reducing the adverse impact of disasters, and ensuring the steady increase of output. However, due to the differences in natural resources and folk customs, the implementation effect of this policy varies in different regions.

Bioactive carbon improves nitrogen fertiliser efficiency and ecological sustainability

Agriculture’s most pressing challenge is raising global food production while minimising environmental degradation. Nutrient deficiencies, principally nitrogen (N), limit production requiring future increases in fertiliser use and risk to proximal non-agricultural ecosystems. We investigated combining humate with urea, globally the most widely used N-suppling fertiliser, in a four-year field study. Humate increased pasture yield by 9.8% more than urea and significantly altered soil microbial diversity and function. Humate increased N retention suggesting microbial sequestration may lower N leaching and volatilisation losses. Humic microbial bio-stimulation could feasibly increase fertiliser efficiency and development of ecologically sustainable agriculture.

Engineering plant virus resistance: from RNA silencing to genome editing strategies

Viral diseases severely affect crop yield and quality, thereby threatening global food security. Genetic improvement of plant virus resistance is essential for sustainable agriculture. In the last decades, several modern technologies were applied in plant antiviral engineering. Here we summarized breakthroughs of the two major antiviral strategies, RNA silencing and genome editing. RNA silencing strategy has been used in antiviral breeding for more than thirty years, and many crops engineered to stably express small RNAs targeting various viruses have been approved for commercial release. Genome editing technology has emerged in the past decade, especially CRISPR/Cas, which provides new methods for genetic improvement of plant virus resistance and accelerates resistance breeding. Finally, we discuss the potential of these technologies for breeding crops, and the challenges and solutions they may face in the future.

Agricultural intensification was associated with crop diversification in India (1947-2014)

Declines in agricultural biodiversity associated with modern farming practices may negatively affect the sustainability of agro-ecosystems, but formal knowledge of historical variation in spatio-temporal variation of agro-biodiversity is limited. We used time series of national (1947–2014) and district-level (1956–2008) crop distribution data for India to show that despite strong agricultural intensification after 1960, the average crop species diversity at the district level was stable, but increased at the country-level. While there was a decline in diversity in the major rice and wheat producing regions of northwestern India, associated with intensification of the production of these crops, diversity in western and southern India increased due to expansion of oilseeds and horticultural crops that replaced millet and sorghum. These opposite, but related, trends in crop-level diversity at the sub-national level partially canceled each other out at national level, but there nevertheless was a noticeable increase in overall crop diversity in India during this time period. Our results illustrate how patterns of change in crop diversity need to be considered at different levels of aggregation, and how a decrease in diversity associated with intensification and specialization in one area, may be associated with increased diversity elsewhere, and that support for intensive agriculture with relatively low crop diversity in some regions may be associated with an increase in crop diversity in other regions and at a higher level of aggregation.

National general truck drivers' strike and food security in a Brazilian metropolis

OBJECTIVE

We analysed the impact of the national general truck drivers' strike on the availability, variety and price of foods sold by a food supply centre.

DESIGN

Descriptive study using secondary data to examine the percentage change in the mean price of fruits, vegetables and eggs before, during and after the strike. The strike in Brazil lasted 10 d from 21 to 30 May 2018. The drivers were on strike in order to make diesel oil tax-free and to obtain better working conditions.

SETTING

The food supply centre, named CEASA-Minas Grande BH, was located in the metropolitan area of a Brazilian city.

PARTICIPANTS

We examined twenty types of foods.

RESULTS

After 10 d, there was a ~30 % reduction in the availability of all types of foods and prices increased. Foods with the highest price increases included cabbage (233·3 %), potatoes (220·0 %), papaya (160·0 %) and oranges (78·6 %). At the end of the strike, we observed reductions in the price of eggs, fruits, vegetables, roots and tubers; however, some foods remained more expensive than before the strike, including chayote (203·2 % higher), cucumber (66·7 % higher) and potatoes (60·0 % higher).

CONCLUSIONS

The general truck drivers' strike was correlated with a reduction in the availability of food and, consequently, increases in price and possibly restrictions on access. The strike demonstrated the dependence of metropolises on road transportation and the conventional market. We speculate that initiatives aiming to shorten the food supply chain and promote food sovereignty and resilience of the supply circuits could be important.

Comparative physiology and aquaculture: Toward Omics-enabled improvement of aquatic animal health and sustainable production

Omics-technologies have revolutionized biomedical research over the past two decades, and are now poised to play a transformative role in aquaculture. This article serves as an introduction to a Virtual Special Issue of Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology - Part D: Genomics and Proteomics (CBPD), with the objective to showcase the state-of-the-science for Omics in aquaculture. In this editorial, we describe the role that Omics can play in aquaculture, and provide a synopsis for each of the Special Issue articles that use these technologies to improve aquaculture practices. Current genomic resources available for some aquaculture species are also described. The number of datasets is impressive for species such as Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout, totaling in the thousands (NCBI Gene Expression Omnibus and Sequence Read Archive). We present a conceptual framework that describes how Omics can be leveraged to understand complex responses of aquatic animals in culture for relevant physiological outcomes, such as fecundity, growth, and immunity. Lastly, knowledge gaps and new directions are identified to address current obstacles in aquaculture. Articles in this Special Issue on aquaculture in CBPD highlight the diversity and scope of Omics in aquaculture. As the technology becomes more cost-effective, it is anticipated that genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics and lipidomics will play increasingly important roles in stock diagnostics (e.g. genetics, health, performance). The timing is right, as global concerns are reaching critical levels over food availability/security and water restrictions for humankind.

Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China

Cropland loss resulting from land use change has drawn great attention in China due to the threat to food security. However, little is known about future magnitude and quality of cropland of China. In this study, the dynamic conversion of land use and its effects model (Dyna-CLUE) together with the Markov model and the potential yield data were used to simulate the influence of land use change on cropland quality in the next two decades under three scenarios. The results indicate that, under the trend scenario, the high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase between 2015 and 2030. The crop yield would decrease by 1.3 × 109 kg. Under planned scenario, high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase, and total crop yield would stay almost unchanged. Under the cropland protection scenario, the high-yield cropland would reduce slightly, and the medium-yield and low-yield cropland would increase substantially. The crop yield would increase by 5.36 × 1010 kg. The result of this study will help decision-makers to develop reasonable land use policies to achieve the goals of harmonious development between food security, economic growth, and environmental protection.

Risk and Response to Biological Catastrophe in Lower Income Countries

Natural and intentional biological risks threaten human civilization, both through direct human fatality as well as follow-on effects from a collapse of the just-in-time delivery system that provides food, energy and critical supplies to communities globally. Human beings have multiple innate cognitive biases that systematically impair careful consideration of these risks. Residents of low-income countries, especially those who live in rural areas and are less dependent upon global trade, may be the most resilient communities to catastrophic risks, but low-income countries also present a heightened risk for biological catastrophe. Hotspots for the emergence of new zoonotic diseases are predominantly located in low-income countries. Crowded, poorly supplied healthcare facilities in low-income countries provide an optimal environment for new pathogens to transmit to a next host and adapt for more efficient person-to-person transmission. Strategies to address these risks include overcoming our natural biases and recognizing the importance of these risks, avoiding an over-reliance on developing specific biological countermeasures, developing generalized social and behavioral responses and investing in resilience.

Time dynamics and invariant subnetwork structures in the world cereals trade network

The development of industrial agriculture has enabled a sharp increase in food trade at the global scale. Worldwide trade underpins food security by distributing food surpluses to food deficient countries. The study of agricultural product flows can provide insights on the complex interactions between exporting and importing countries and the resulting network structures. Commercial partnerships between countries can be modelled using a complex network approach. Based on the detailed trade matrices from FAO covering the period from 1986 to 2013, we present an analysis of the world cereal trade in terms of weighted and directed networks. The network nodes are the countries and the links are the trades of agricultural products in mass. We reveal the changing topology and degree distribution of the world network during the studied period. We distinguish three entangled subnetwork structures when considering the temporal stability of the trades. The three subnetworks display distinct properties and a differential contribution in total trade. Trades of uninterrupted activity over the 28-year study period compose the backbone network which accounts for two thirds of all traded mass and is scale-free. Inversely, two thirds of the trades only have one or two consecutive years of activity and define the transient subnetwork which displays random growth and accounts for very little traded mass. The trades of intermediate duration display an exponential growth both in numbers and in traded mass and define the intermediate subnetwork. The topology of each subnetwork is a time invariant. The identification of invariant structures is a useful basis for developing prospective agri-food network modelling to assess their resilience to perturbations and shocks.

Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970-2005 period. The results show that due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970-2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased by more than a factor of two in the 1970-2005 period (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency improvements at the level of animal breeds, but also on four additional pillars: (i) use of alternative feed sources not competing with human food, (ii) reduction of the crude protein content in rations, (iii) the proper use of slurries as fertilizers through coupling of crop and livestock production and (iv) moderation of the human pork consumption.

Spatial Distribution of the International Food Prices: Unexpected Heterogeneity and Randomness

Global food prices are typically analysed in a time-series framework. We complement this approach by focusing on the spatial price dispersion of the country-pair bilateral trade in the international food trade network (IFTN), for ten relevant commodities. The main purposes are to verify if the Law of One Price (LOP) holds and to investigate the emergence of randomness in the price-formation mechanism. We distinguish between the "internal" variance, which indicates the magnitude of price discrimination, and the "external" variance, that is a measure of price dispersion. We find that, for some commodities, spatial price dispersion is remarkable and persistent over time (i.e., failure of the LOP) and that there exists a strict correlation between price spikes and peaks in spatial price variability. We test whether the price distribution can be replicated through a stochastic process of extraction. Surprisingly, the actual distribution of prices, for several commodities, is well described by a random distribution. Then, the process of data aggregation is not neutral because the information at the micro-level scale might be lost at the macro-scale, due to the complexity of the IFTN. Finally, we discuss some possible economic explanations of these outcomes and the main methodological, environmental, and policy consequences.

Synchronized failure of global crop production

Multiple breadbasket failure is a risk to global food security. However, there are no global analyses that have quantitatively assessed if global crop production has actually tended towards synchronized failure historically. We show that synchronization in production within major commodities such as maize and soybean has declined in recent decades, leading to increased global stability in production of these crops. In contrast, synchrony between crops has peaked, making global calorie production more unstable. Under the hypothetical event of complete synchronized failure we estimate simultaneous global production losses for rice, wheat, soybean and maize to lie between -17% and -34%. We find that offsetting these losses by reducing variation in production across all growing locations, and raising production ceilings in breadbaskets, are far more effective than strategies focused on reducing variability in breadbaskets alone or closing production gaps in low productive locations. Our findings suggest that maintaining asynchrony in the food system requires a central place in discussions of future food demand under mean climate change, population growth and consumption trends.

The effects of network topology, climate variability and shocks on the evolution and resilience of a food trade network

Future climate change will impose increased variability on food production and food trading networks. However, the effect of climate variability and sudden shocks on resource availability through trade and its subsequent effect on population growth is largely unknown. Here we study the effect of resource variability and network topology on access to resources and population growth, using a model of population growth limited by resource availability in a trading network. Resources are redistributed in the network based on supply and the distance between nodes (i.e. cities or countries). Resources at nodes vary over time with wave parameters that mimic changes in biomass production arising from known climate variability. Random perturbations to resources are applied to study resilience of individual nodes and the system as a whole. The model demonstrates that redistribution of resources increases the maximum population that can be supported (carrying capacity) by the network. Fluctuations in carrying capacity depend on the amplitude and frequency of resource variability: fluctuations become larger for increasing amplitude and decreasing frequency. Our study shows that topology is the key factor determining the carrying capacity of a node. In larger networks the carrying capacity increases and the distribution of resources in the network becomes more equal. The most central nodes achieve a higher carrying capacity than nodes with a lower centrality. Moreover, central nodes are less susceptible to long-term resource variability and shocks. These insights can be used to understand how worldwide equitable access to resources can be maintained under increasing climate variability.

Decline in climate resilience of European wheat

Food security under climate change depends on the yield performance of staple food crops. We found a decline in the climate resilience of European wheat in most countries during the last 5 to 15 y, depending on the country. The yield responses of all the cultivars to different weather events were relatively similar within northern and central Europe, within southern European countries, and specifically regarding durum wheat. We also found serious Europe-wide gaps in wheat resilience, especially regarding yield performance under abundant rain. Climate resilience is currently not receiving the attention it deserves by breeders, seed and wheat traders, and farmers. Consequently, the results provide insights into the required learning tools, economic incentives, and role of public actors.

Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers’ fields in most European countries after 2002–2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity “deserts” were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.