1
|
Stanley AE, Epanchin-Niell R, Treakle T, Iacona GD. Attributes of preemptive conservation efforts for species precluded from listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conserv Biol 2024; 38:e14200. [PMID: 37817673 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2022] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/12/2023]
Abstract
Preemptive conservation efforts to reduce threats have been credited with precluding the need to list some imperiled species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Such efforts can result in outcomes where species are conserved and regulatory costs associated with ESA listing are avoided. Yet, the extent and type of conservation effort involved in achieving preclusion from listing are not well understood. We quantified the attributes of conservation efforts identified as important for 43 species whose preclusion from listing was attributed to conservation efforts, as described in U.S. Federal Register documents that report the decisions not to list. We considered 2 features of preemptive conservation: effort applied (measured as the number of conservation initiatives) and number of conservation partners involved. We also quantified the type and location of conservation actions. We found a mean of 4.3 initiatives (range 1-22) and 8.2 partners (range 1-31) documented per precluded species; both measures of conservation effort were significantly and positively associated with the species' range area and the proportion of private land across its range. The number of initiatives was also positively related to the number of threats affecting a species. Locations of conservation actions varied; more species had actions on public land than on private land (p = 0.003). Numbers of species with restorative actions (e.g., invasive species control) were similar to numbers with prohibitive actions. Our findings highlight relationships between species' context and preemptive conservation activities, providing a first cross-species analysis of conservation efforts for species that were precluded from listing under the ESA due to conservation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Annabelle E Stanley
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA
- Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Rebecca Epanchin-Niell
- Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Tyler Treakle
- Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA
- School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| | - Gwenllian D Iacona
- Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
- Center for Biodiversity Outcomes, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Van de Waal DB, White LA, Everett R, Asik L, Borer ET, Frenken T, González AL, Paseka R, Seabloom EW, Strauss AT, Peace A. Reconciling contrasting effects of nitrogen on host immunity and pathogen transmission using stoichiometric models. Ecology 2023; 104:e4170. [PMID: 37755721 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2022] [Revised: 06/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/29/2023] [Indexed: 09/28/2023]
Abstract
Hosts rely on the availability of nutrients for growth, and for defense against pathogens. At the same time, changes in host nutrition can alter the dynamics of pathogens that rely on their host for reproduction. For primary producer hosts, enhanced nutrient loads may increase host biomass or pathogen reproduction, promoting faster density-dependent pathogen transmission. However, the effect of elevated nutrients may be reduced if hosts allocate a growth-limiting nutrient to pathogen defense. In canonical disease models, transmission is not a function of nutrient availability. Yet, including nutrient availability is necessary to mechanistically understand the response of infection to changes in the environment. Here, we explore the implications of nutrient-mediated pathogen infectivity and host immunity on infection outcomes. We developed a stoichiometric disease model that explicitly integrates the contrasting dependencies of pathogen infectivity and host immunity on nitrogen (N) and parameterized it for an algal-host system. Our findings reveal dynamic shifts in host biomass build-up, pathogen prevalence, and the force of infection along N supply gradients with N-mediated host infectivity and immunity, compared with a model in which the transmission rate was fixed. We show contrasting responses in pathogen performance with increasing N supply between N-mediated infectivity and N-mediated immunity, revealing an optimum for pathogen transmission at intermediate N supply. This was caused by N limitation of the pathogen at a low N supply and by pathogen suppression via enhanced host immunity at a high N supply. By integrating both nutrient-mediated pathogen infectivity and host immunity into a stoichiometric model, we provide a theoretical framework that is a first step in reconciling the contrasting role nutrients can have on host-pathogen dynamics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Dedmer B Van de Waal
- Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Freshwater and Marine Ecology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Lauren A White
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland, USA
| | - Rebecca Everett
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Haverford College, Haverford, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Lale Asik
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of the Incarnate Word, San Antonio, Texas, USA
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, USA
| | - Elizabeth T Borer
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Thijs Frenken
- Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research (GLIER), University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario, Canada
| | - Angélica L González
- Department of Biology and Center for Computational and Integrative Biology, Rutgers University, Camden, New Jersey, USA
| | - Rachel Paseka
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Eric W Seabloom
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Alexander T Strauss
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA
- River Basin Center, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA
| | - Angela Peace
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, USA
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Pisor A, Lansing JS, Magargal K. Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220390. [PMID: 37718608 PMCID: PMC10505856 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0390] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023] Open
Abstract
There is global consensus that we must immediately prioritize climate change adaptation-change in response to or anticipation of risks from climate change. Some researchers and policymakers urge 'transformative change', a complete break from past practices, yet report having little data on whether new practices reduce the risks communities face, even over the short term. However, researchers have some leads: human communities have long generated solutions to changing climate, and scientists who study culture have examples of effective and persistent solutions. This theme issue discusses cultural adaptation to climate change, and in this paper, we review how processes of biological adaptation, including innovation, modification, selective retention and transmission, shape the landscapes decision-makers care about-from which solutions emerge in communities, to the spread of effective adaptations, to regional or global collective action. We introduce a comprehensive portal of data and models on cultural adaptation to climate change, and we outline ways forward. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anne Pisor
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-1009, USA
- Department of Human Behavior, Ecology and Culture, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, 04103 Leipzig, Sachsen, Germany
| | - J. Stephen Lansing
- Santa Fe Institute, NM87506, USA
- Complexity Science Hub, 1080 Vienna, Austria
| | - Kate Magargal
- Environmental and Sustainability Studies, University of Utah Health, Salt Lake City, UT84112, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Elsler LG, Oostdijk M, Gephart JA, Free CM, Zhao J, Tekwa E, Bochniewicz EM, Giron-Nava A, Johnson AF. Global trade network patterns are coupled to fisheries sustainability. PNAS Nexus 2023; 2:pgad301. [PMID: 37817775 PMCID: PMC10560747 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Revised: 07/12/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 10/12/2023]
Abstract
The rapid development of seafood trade networks alongside the decline in biomass of many marine populations raises important questions about the role of global trade in fisheries sustainability. Mounting empirical and theoretical evidence shows the importance of trade development on commercially exploited species. However, there is limited understanding of how the development of trade networks, such as differences in connectivity and duration, affects fisheries sustainability. In a global analysis of over 400,000 bilateral trade flows and stock status estimates for 876 exploited fish and marine invertebrates from 223 territories, we reveal patterns between seafood trade network indicators and fisheries sustainability using a dynamic panel regression analysis. We found that fragmented networks with strong connectivity within a group of countries and weaker links between those groups (modularity) are associated with higher relative biomass. From 1995 to 2015, modularity fluctuated, and the number of trade connections (degree) increased. Unlike previous studies, we found no relationship between the number or duration of trade connections and fisheries sustainability. Our results highlight the need to jointly investigate fisheries and trade. Improved coordination and partnerships between fisheries authorities and trade organizations present opportunities to foster more sustainable fisheries.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Laura G Elsler
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Maartje Oostdijk
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - Jessica A Gephart
- Department of Environmental Science, American University, Washington, DC 20016, USA
| | - Christopher M Free
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
| | - Junfu Zhao
- Institute of Marxism, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Eden Tekwa
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 1B1, Canada
| | | | - Alfredo Giron-Nava
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305, USA
| | - Andrew F Johnson
- Marine SPACE group, The Lyell Centre, Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Currie, Scotland EH14 4AS, UK
- MarFishEco Fisheries Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh, Scotland EH7 5HT, UK
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Treakle T, Epanchin-Niell R, Iacona GD. Factors associated with preemptive conservation under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conserv Biol 2023; 37:e14104. [PMID: 37185993 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2022] [Revised: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
In recent decades, there has been an increasing emphasis on proactive efforts to conserve species being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) before they are listed (i.e., preemptive conservation). These efforts, which depend on voluntary actions by public and private land managers across the species' range, aim to conserve species while avoiding regulatory costs associated with ESA listing. We collected data for a set of social, economic, environmental, and institutional factors that we hypothesized would influence voluntary decisions to promote or inhibit preemptive conservation of species under consideration for ESA listing. We used logistic regression to estimate the association of these factors with preemptive conservation outcomes based on data for a set of species that entered the ESA listing process and were either officially listed (n = 314) or preemptively conserved (n = 73) from 1996 to 2018. Factors significantly associated with precluded listing due to preemptive conservation included high baseline conservation status, low proportion of private land across the species' range, small total range size, exposure to specific types of threats, and species' range extending over several states. These results highlight strategies that can help improve conservation outcomes, such as allocating resources for imperiled species earlier in the listing process, addressing specific threats, and expanding incentives and coordination mechanisms for conservation on private lands.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tyler Treakle
- Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., USA
- ASU School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| | - Rebecca Epanchin-Niell
- Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., USA
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Gwenllian D Iacona
- Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., USA
- ASU School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
- Center for Biodiversity Outcomes, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Mainali KP, Singh PB, Evans M, Adhikari A, Hu Y, Hu H. A brighter shade of future climate on Himalayan musk deer Moschus leucogaster. Sci Rep 2023; 13:12771. [PMID: 37550330 PMCID: PMC10406878 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-39481-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 07/26/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Himalayan musk deer (Moschus leucogaster) is classified as an endangered species by IUCN with a historically misunderstood distribution due to misidentification with other species of musk deer, Moschus spp. Taking advantage of recent genetic analyses confirming the species of various populations in Nepal and China, we produced an accurate estimate of the species' current and future distribution under multiple climate change scenarios. We collected high-quality occurrence data using systematic surveys of various protected areas of Nepal to train species distribution models. The most influential determinants of the distribution of Himalayan musk deer were precipitation of the driest quarter, temperature seasonality, and annual mean temperature. These variables, and precipitation in particular, determine the vegetation type and structure in the Himalaya, which is strongly correlated with the distribution of Himalayan musk deer. We predicted suitable habitats between the Annapurna and Kanchenjunga region of Nepal Himalaya as well as the adjacent Himalaya in China. Under multiple climate change scenarios, the vast majority (85-89%) of current suitable sites are likely to remain suitable and many new areas of suitable habitat may emerge to the west and north of the current species range in Nepal and China. Two-thirds of current and one-third of future suitable habitats are protected by the extensive network of protected areas in Nepal. The projected large gains in suitable sites may lead to population expansion and conservation gains, only when the threat of overexploitation and population decline is under control.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kumar P Mainali
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, Maryland, USA
- Conservation Innovation Center, Chesapeake Conservancy, Annapolis, Maryland, USA
| | - Paras Bikram Singh
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China.
- Biodiversity Conservation Society Nepal, Bagdol, Lalitpur, Nepal.
| | - Michael Evans
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, Maryland, USA
- Environmental Science and Policy Dept., George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
| | - Arjun Adhikari
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
| | - Yiming Hu
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Huijian Hu
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China.
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Van Kleunen LB, Peterson KA, Hayden MT, Keyes A, Schwartz AJ, Li H, Dee LE. Decision-making under uncertainty for species introductions into ecological networks. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:983-1004. [PMID: 37038276 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2022] [Revised: 03/11/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
Abstract
Ecological communities are increasingly subject to natural and human-induced additions of species, as species shift their ranges under climate change, are introduced for conservation and are unintentionally moved by humans. As such, decisions about how to manage ecosystems subject to species introductions and considering multiple management objectives need to be made. However, the impacts of gaining new species on ecological communities are difficult to predict due to uncertainty in introduced species characteristics, the novel interactions that will be produced by that species, and the recipient ecosystem structure. Drawing on ecological and conservation decision theory, we synthesise literature into a conceptual framework for species introduction decision-making based on ecological networks in high-uncertainty contexts. We demonstrate the application of this framework to a theoretical decision surrounding assisted migration considering both biodiversity and ecosystem service objectives. We show that this framework can be used to evaluate trade-offs between outcomes, predict worst-case scenarios, suggest when one should collect additional data, and allow for improving knowledge of the system over time.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lucy B Van Kleunen
- Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Katie A Peterson
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, Maryland, USA
| | - Meghan T Hayden
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Aislyn Keyes
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Aaron J Schwartz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Henry Li
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Laura E Dee
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Kinnebrew E, Ochoa-Brito JI, French M, Mills-Novoa M, Shoffner E, Siegel K. Biases and limitations of Global Forest Change and author-generated land cover maps in detecting deforestation in the Amazon. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0268970. [PMID: 35793333 PMCID: PMC9258877 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2021] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Studying land use change in protected areas (PAs) located in tropical forests is a major conservation priority due to high conservation value (e.g., species richness and carbon storage) here, coupled with generally high deforestation rates. Land use change researchers use a variety of land cover products to track deforestation trends, including maps they produce themselves and readily available products, such as the Global Forest Change (GFC) dataset. However, all land cover maps should be critically assessed for limitations and biases to accurately communicate and interpret results. In this study, we assess deforestation in PA complexes located in agricultural frontiers in the Amazon Basin. We studied three specific sites: Amboró and Carrasco National Parks in Bolivia, Jamanxim National Forest in Brazil, and Tambopata National Reserve and Bahuaja-Sonene National Park in Peru. Within and in 20km buffer areas around each complex, we generated land cover maps using composites of Landsat imagery and supervised classification, and compared deforestation trends to data from the GFC dataset. We then performed a dissimilarity analysis to explore the discrepancies between the two remote sensing products. Both the GFC and our supervised classification showed that deforestation rates were higher in the 20km buffer than inside the PAs and that Jamanxim National Forest had the highest deforestation rate of the PAs we studied. However, GFC maps showed consistently higher rates of deforestation than our maps. Through a dissimilarity analysis, we found that many of the inconsistencies between these datasets arise from different treatment of mixed pixels or different parameters in map creation (for example, GFC does not detect reforestation after 2012). We found that our maps underestimated deforestation while GFC overestimated deforestation, and that true deforestation rates likely fall between our two estimates. We encourage users to consider limitations and biases when using or interpreting our maps, which we make publicly available, and GFC’s maps.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Eva Kinnebrew
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Jose I. Ochoa-Brito
- Geography Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
- Fundación EcoCiencia, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Matthew French
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Megan Mills-Novoa
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth Shoffner
- Department of Geography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Katherine Siegel
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Abstract
Bed bug outbreaks pose a major challenge in urban environments and cause significant strain on public resources. Few studies have systematically analyzed this insect epidemic or the potential effects of policies to combat bed bugs. Here we use three sources of administrative data to characterize the spatial-temporal trends of bed bug inquiries, complaints, and reports in New York City. Bed bug complaints have significantly decreased (p < 0.01) from 2014–2020, the absolute number of complaints per month dropping by half (875 average complaints per month to 440 average complaints per month); conversely, complaints for other insects including cockroaches and flies did not decrease over the same period. Despite the decrease of bed bug complaints, areas with reported high bed bug infestation tend to remain infested, highlighting the persistence of these pests. There are limitations to the datasets; still the evidence available suggests that interventions employed by New York City residents and lawmakers are stemming the bed bug epidemic and may serve as a model for other large cities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn P. Hacker
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Andrew J. Greenlee
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Alison L. Hill
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Daniel Schneider
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Michael Z. Levy
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
MacLachlan MJ, Liebhold AM, Yamanaka T, Springborn MR. Hidden patterns of insect establishment risk revealed from two centuries of alien species discoveries. Sci Adv 2021; 7:eabj1012. [PMID: 34705509 PMCID: PMC8550319 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abj1012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Accepted: 09/03/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the socioeconomic drivers of biological invasion informs policy development for curtailing future invasions. While early 20th-century plant trade expansions preceded increased establishments of plant pests in Northern America, increased establishments did not follow accelerating imports later that century. To explore this puzzle, we estimate the historical establishment of plant-feeding Hemiptera in Northern America as a function of historical U.S. imports of live plants from seven world regions. Delays between establishment and discovery are modeled using a previously unused proxy for dynamic discovery effort. By recovering the timing of pest arrivals from their historical discoveries, we disentangle the joint establishment-discovery process. We estimate long delays to discovery, which are partially attributable to the low detectability of less economically important insect species. We estimate that many introduced species remain undiscovered, ranging from around one-fifth for Eurasian regions to two-fifths for Central and South America.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Andrew M. Liebhold
- U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Morgantown, WV 26505, USA
- Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Praha 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Takehiko Yamanaka
- Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, NARO (NIAES), Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Michael R. Springborn
- Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Jiao J, Suarez GP, Fefferman NH. How public reaction to disease information across scales and the impacts of vector control methods influence disease prevalence and control efficacy. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1008762. [PMID: 34181645 PMCID: PMC8270472 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008762] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2021] [Revised: 07/09/2021] [Accepted: 05/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
With the development of social media, the information about vector-borne disease incidence over broad spatial scales can cause demand for local vector control before local risk exists. Anticipatory intervention may still benefit local disease control efforts; however, infection risks are not the only focal concerns governing public demand for vector control. Concern for environmental contamination from pesticides and economic limitations on the frequency and magnitude of control measures also play key roles. Further, public concern may be focused more on ecological factors (i.e., controlling mosquito populations) or on epidemiological factors (i.e., controlling infection-carrying mosquitoes), which may lead to very different control outcomes. Here we introduced a generic Ross-MacDonald model, incorporating these factors under three spatial scales of disease information: local, regional, and global. We tailored and parameterized the model for Zika virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquito. We found that sensitive reactivity caused by larger-scale incidence information could decrease average human infections per patch breeding capacity, however, the associated increase in total control effort plays a larger role, which leads to an overall decrease in control efficacy. The shift of focal concerns from epidemiological to ecological risk could relax the negative effect of the sensitive reactivity on control efficacy when mosquito breeding capacity populations are expected to be large. This work demonstrates that, depending on expected total mosquito breeding capacity population size, and weights of different focal concerns, large-scale disease information can reduce disease infections without lowering control efficacy. Our findings provide guidance for vector-control strategies by considering public reaction through social media.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jing Jiao
- National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States of America
- Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo P. Suarez
- Department of Agriculture and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Nina H. Fefferman
- National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States of America
- Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Shaw AK, White LA, Michalska-Smith M, Borer ET, Craft ME, Seabloom EW, Snell-Rood EC, Travisano M. Lessons from movement ecology for the return to work: Modeling contacts and the spread of COVID-19. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0242955. [PMID: 33481803 PMCID: PMC7822505 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2020] [Accepted: 11/12/2020] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Human behavior (movement, social contacts) plays a central role in the spread of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 was driven by global human movement, and initial lockdown measures aimed to localize movement and contact in order to slow spread. Thus, movement and contact patterns need to be explicitly considered when making reopening decisions, especially regarding return to work. Here, as a case study, we consider the initial stages of resuming research at a large research university, using approaches from movement ecology and contact network epidemiology. First, we develop a dynamical pathogen model describing movement between home and work; we show that limiting social contact, via reduced people or reduced time in the workplace are fairly equivalent strategies to slow pathogen spread. Second, we develop a model based on spatial contact patterns within a specific office and lab building on campus; we show that restricting on-campus activities to labs (rather than labs and offices) could dramatically alter (modularize) contact network structure and thus, potentially reduce pathogen spread by providing a workplace mechanism to reduce contact. Here we argue that explicitly accounting for human movement and contact behavior in the workplace can provide additional strategies to slow pathogen spread that can be used in conjunction with ongoing public health efforts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Allison K. Shaw
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Lauren A. White
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Matthew Michalska-Smith
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
- Department of Plant Pathology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth T. Borer
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Meggan E. Craft
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Eric W. Seabloom
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Emilie C. Snell-Rood
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Michael Travisano
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
- BioTechnology Institute, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Smith SL, Golden AS, Ramenzoni V, Zemeckis DR, Jensen OP. Adaptation and resilience of commercial fishers in the Northeast United States during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0243886. [PMID: 33332383 PMCID: PMC7746300 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0243886] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 11/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Commercial fisheries globally experienced numerous and significant perturbations during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting the livelihoods of millions of fishers worldwide. In the Northeast United States, fishers grappled with low prices and disruptions to export and domestic markets, leaving many tied to the dock, while others found ways to adapt to the changing circumstances brought about by the pandemic. This paper investigates the short-term impacts of the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic (March-June 2020) on commercial fishers in the Northeast U.S. to understand the effects of the pandemic on participation in the fishery and fishers' economic outcomes, using data collected from an online survey of 258 Northeast U.S. commercial fishers. This research also assesses characteristics of those fishers who continued fishing and their adaptive strategies to the changing circumstances. Analysis of survey responses found the majority of fishers continued fishing during the early months of the pandemic, while a significant number had stopped fishing. Nearly all reported a loss of income, largely driven by disruptions of export markets, the loss of restaurant sales, and a resulting decline in seafood prices. Landings data demonstrate that while fishing pressure in 2020 was reduced for some species, it remained on track with previous years for others. Fishers reported engaging in a number of adaptation strategies, including direct sales of seafood, switching species, and supplementing their income with government payments or other sources of income. Many fishers who had stopped fishing indicated plans to return, suggesting refraining from fishing as a short-term adaptation strategy, rather than a plan to permanently stop fishing. Despite economic losses, fishers in the Northeast U.S. demonstrated resilience in the face of the pandemic by continuing to fish and implementing other adaptation strategies rather than switching to other livelihoods.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Lindley Smith
- Department of Human Ecology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Abigail S. Golden
- Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States of America
- Graduate Program in Ecology and Evolution, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Victoria Ramenzoni
- Department of Human Ecology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Douglas R. Zemeckis
- Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, Toms River, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Olaf P. Jensen
- Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States of America
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Meli P, Holl KD, Rey Benayas JM, Jones HP, Jones PC, Montoya D, Moreno Mateos D. A global review of past land use, climate, and active vs. passive restoration effects on forest recovery. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0171368. [PMID: 28158256 PMCID: PMC5291368 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 212] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2016] [Accepted: 01/19/2017] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Global forest restoration targets have been set, yet policy makers and land managers lack guiding principles on how to invest limited resources to achieve them. We conducted a meta-analysis of 166 studies in naturally regenerating and actively restored forests worldwide to answer: (1) To what extent do floral and faunal abundance and diversity and biogeochemical functions recover? (2) Does recovery vary as a function of past land use, time since restoration, forest region, or precipitation? (3) Does active restoration result in more complete or faster recovery than passive restoration? Overall, forests showed a high level of recovery, but the time to recovery depended on the metric type measured, past land use, and region. Abundance recovered quickly and completely, whereas diversity recovered slower in tropical than in temperate forests. Biogeochemical functions recovered more slowly after agriculture than after logging or mining. Formerly logged sites were mostly passively restored and generally recovered quickly. Mined sites were nearly always actively restored using a combination of planting and either soil amendments or recontouring topography, which resulted in rapid recovery of the metrics evaluated. Actively restoring former agricultural land, primarily by planting trees, did not result in consistently faster or more complete recovery than passively restored sites. Our results suggest that simply ending the land use is sufficient for forests to recover in many cases, but more studies are needed that directly compare the value added of active versus passive restoration strategies in the same system. Investments in active restoration should be evaluated relative to the past land use, the natural resilience of the system, and the specific objectives of each project.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Paula Meli
- Natura y Ecosistemas Mexicanos A.C., Mexico DF, Mexico
- Fundación Internacional para la Restauración de Ecosistemas, Madrid, Spain
- * E-mail:
| | - Karen D. Holl
- Environmental Studies Department, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - José María Rey Benayas
- Fundación Internacional para la Restauración de Ecosistemas, Madrid, Spain
- Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
| | - Holly P. Jones
- Department of Biological Sciences and Institute for the Study of the Environment, Sustainability, and Energy, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Peter C. Jones
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Daniel Montoya
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modeling, Station D’Ecologie Experimentale du CNRS, Moulis, France
- Centre INRA de Dijon, Dijon Cedex, France
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - David Moreno Mateos
- Fundación Internacional para la Restauración de Ecosistemas, Madrid, Spain
- Basque Center for Climate Change – BC3, Bilbao, Spain
- IKERBASQUE, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain
| |
Collapse
|