Late Cenozoic onset of the latitudinal diversity gradient of North American mammals

Explanations for latitudinal diversity gradients must invoke rate variation

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) describes the pattern of increasing numbers of species from the poles to the equator. Although recognized for over 200 years, the mechanisms responsible for the largest-scale and longest-known pattern in macroecology are still actively debated. I argue here that any explanation for the LDG must invoke differential rates of speciation, extinction, extirpation, or dispersal. These processes themselves may be governed by numerous abiotic or biotic factors. Hypotheses that claim not to invoke differential rates, such as 'age and area' or 'time for diversification', eschew focus from rate variation that is assumed by these explanations. There is still significant uncertainty in how rates of speciation, extinction, extirpation, and dispersal have varied regionally over Earth history. However, to better understand the development of LDGs, we need to better constrain this variation. Only then will the drivers of such rate variation - be they abiotic or biotic in nature - become clearer.

The hierarchy of factors predicting the latitudinal diversity gradient

The numerous explanations for why Earth's biodiversity is concentrated at low latitudes fail to explain variation in the strength and even direction of the gradient through deep time. Consequently, we do not know if today's gradient is representative of what might be expected on other planets or is merely an idiosyncrasy of Earth's history. We propose a hierarchy of factors driving the latitudinal distribution of diversity: (i) over geologically long time spans, diversity is largely predicted by climate; (ii) when climatic gradients are shallow, diversity tracks habitat area; and (iii) historical contingencies linked to niche conservatism have geologically short-term, transient influence at most. Thus, latitudinal diversity gradients, although variable in strength and direction, are largely predictable on our planet and possibly others.

Biodiversity across space and time in the fossil record

The fossil record is the primary source of information on how biodiversity has varied in deep time, providing unique insight on the long-term dynamics of diversification and their drivers. However, interpretations of fossil record diversity patterns have been much debated, with a traditional focus on global diversity through time. Problems arise because the fossil record is spatially and temporally patchy, so 'global' diversity estimates actually represent the summed diversity across a set of geographically and environmentally distinct regions that vary substantially in number and identity through time. Furthermore, a focus on global diversity lumps the signal of ecological drivers at local and regional scales with the signal of global-scale processes, including variation in the distribution of environments and in provincialism (the extent of subdivision into distinct biogeographic regions). These signals cannot be untangled by studying global diversity measures alone. These conceptual and empirical concerns necessitate a shift away from the study of 'biodiversity through time' and towards the study of 'biodiversity across time and space'. Spatially explicit investigations, including analyses of local- and regional-scale datasets, are central to achieving this and allow analysis of geographic scale, location and the environmental parameters directly experienced by organisms. So far, research in this area has revealed the stability of species richness variation among environments through time, and the potential climatic and Earth-system drivers of changing biodiversity. Ultimately, this research program promises to address key questions regarding the assembly of biodiversity, and the contributions of local-, regional- and global-scale processes to the diversification of life on Earth.

gen3sis: A general engine for eco-evolutionary simulations of the processes that shape Earth's biodiversity

Understanding the origins of biodiversity has been an aspiration since the days of early naturalists. The immense complexity of ecological, evolutionary, and spatial processes, however, has made this goal elusive to this day. Computer models serve progress in many scientific fields, but in the fields of macroecology and macroevolution, eco-evolutionary models are comparatively less developed. We present a general, spatially explicit, eco-evolutionary engine with a modular implementation that enables the modeling of multiple macroecological and macroevolutionary processes and feedbacks across representative spatiotemporally dynamic landscapes. Modeled processes can include species' abiotic tolerances, biotic interactions, dispersal, speciation, and evolution of ecological traits. Commonly observed biodiversity patterns, such as α, β, and γ diversity, species ranges, ecological traits, and phylogenies, emerge as simulations proceed. As an illustration, we examine alternative hypotheses expected to have shaped the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) during the Earth's Cenozoic era. Our exploratory simulations simultaneously produce multiple realistic biodiversity patterns, such as the LDG, current species richness, and range size frequencies, as well as phylogenetic metrics. The model engine is open source and available as an R package, enabling future exploration of various landscapes and biological processes, while outputs can be linked with a variety of empirical biodiversity patterns. This work represents a key toward a numeric, interdisciplinary, and mechanistic understanding of the physical and biological processes that shape Earth's biodiversity.

Out of the extratropics: the evolution of the latitudinal diversity gradient of Cenozoic marine plankton

Many ecological and evolutionary hypotheses have been proposed to explain the latitudinal diversity gradient, i.e. the increase in species richness from the poles to the tropics. Among the evolutionary hypotheses, the 'out of the tropics' (OTT) hypothesis has received considerable attention. The OTT posits that the tropics are both a cradle and source of biodiversity for extratropical regions. To test the generality of the OTT hypothesis, we explored the spatial biodiversity dynamics of unicellular marine plankton over the Cenozoic era (the last 66 Myr). We find large-scale climatic changes during the Cenozoic shaped the diversification and dispersal of marine plankton. Origination was generally more likely in the extratropics and net dispersal was towards the tropics rather than in the opposite direction, especially during the warmer climates of the early Cenozoic. Although migration proportions varied among major plankton groups and climate phases, we provide evidence that the extratropics were a source of tropical microplankton biodiversity over the last 66 Myr.

Truncated bimodal latitudinal diversity gradient in early Paleozoic phytoplankton

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)-the decline in species richness from the equator to the poles-is classically considered as the most pervasive macroecological pattern on Earth, but the timing of its establishment, its ubiquity in the geological past, and explanatory mechanisms remain uncertain. By combining empirical and modeling approaches, we show that the first representatives of marine phytoplankton exhibited an LDG from the beginning of the Cambrian, when most major phyla appeared. However, this LDG showed a single peak of diversity centered on the Southern Hemisphere, in contrast to the equatorial peak classically observed for most modern taxa. We find that this LDG most likely corresponds to a truncated bimodal gradient, which probably results from an uneven sediment preservation, smaller sampling effort, and/or lower initial diversity in the Northern Hemisphere. Variation of the documented LDG through time resulted primarily from fluctuations in annual sea-surface temperature and long-term climate changes.

Spatial sampling heterogeneity limits the detectability of deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), in which species richness decreases from tropical to polar regions, is a pervasive pattern of the modern biosphere. Although the distribution of fossil occurrences suggests this pattern has varied through deep time, the recognition of palaeobiogeographic patterns is hampered by geological and anthropogenic biases. In particular, spatial sampling heterogeneity has the capacity to impact upon the reconstruction of deep time LBGs. Here we use a simulation framework to test the detectability of three different types of LBG (flat, unimodal and bimodal) over the last 300 Myr. We show that heterogeneity in spatial sampling significantly impacts upon the detectability of genuine LBGs, with known biodiversity patterns regularly obscured after applying the spatial sampling window of fossil collections. Sampling-standardization aids the reconstruction of relative biodiversity gradients, but cannot account for artefactual absences introduced by geological and anthropogenic biases. Therefore, we argue that some previous studies might have failed to recover the ‘true’ LBG type owing to incomplete and heterogeneous sampling, particularly between 200 and 20 Ma. Furthermore, these issues also have the potential to bias global estimates of past biodiversity, as well as inhibit the recognition of extinction and radiation events.

Ancient tropical extinctions at high latitudes contributed to the latitudinal diversity gradient

Global biodiversity currently peaks at the equator and decreases toward the poles. Growing fossil evidence suggest this hump-shaped latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) has not been persistent through time, with similar diversity across latitudes flattening out the LDG during past greenhouse periods. However, when and how diversity declined at high latitudes to generate the modern LDG remains an open question. Although diversity-loss scenarios have been proposed, they remain mostly undemonstrated. We outline the "asymmetric gradient of extinction and dispersal" framework that contextualizes previous ideas behind the LDG under a time-variable scenario. Using phylogenies and fossils of Testudines, Crocodilia, and Lepidosauria, we find that the hump-shaped LDG could be explained by (1) disproportionate extinctions of high-latitude tropical-adapted clades when climate transitioned from greenhouse to icehouse, and (2) equator-ward biotic dispersals tracking their climatic preferences when tropical biomes became restricted to the equator. Conversely, equivalent diversification rates across latitudes can account for the formation of an ancient flat LDG. The inclusion of fossils in macroevolutionary studies allows revealing time-dependent extinction rates hardly detectable from phylogenies only. This study underscores that the prevailing evolutionary processes generating the LDG during greenhouses differed from those operating during icehouses.

The latitudinal diversity gradient of tetrapods across the Permo-Triassic mass extinction and recovery interval

The decline in species richness from the equator to the poles is referred to as the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG). Higher equatorial diversity has been recognized for over 200 years, but the consistency of this pattern in deep time remains uncertain. Examination of spatial biodiversity patterns in the past across different global climate regimes and continental configurations can reveal how LDGs have varied over Earth history and potentially differentiate between suggested causal mechanisms. The Late Permian-Middle Triassic represents an ideal time interval for study, because it is characterized by large-scale volcanic episodes, extreme greenhouse temperatures and the most severe mass extinction event in Earth history. We examined terrestrial and marine tetrapod spatial biodiversity patterns using a database of global tetrapod occurrences. Terrestrial tetrapods exhibit a bimodal richness distribution throughout the Late Permian-Middle Triassic, with peaks in the northern low latitudes and southern mid-latitudes around 20-40° N and 60° S, respectively. Marine reptile fossils are known almost exclusively from the Northern Hemisphere in the Early and Middle Triassic, with highest diversity around 20° N. Reconstructed terrestrial LDGs contrast strongly with the generally unimodal gradients of today, potentially reflecting high global temperatures and prevailing Pangaean super-monsoonal climate system during the Permo-Triassic.

Biodiversity Models: What If Unsaturation Is the Rule?

Improving biodiversity predictions is essential if we are to meet the challenges posed by global change. As knowledge is key to feed models, we need to evaluate how debated theory can affect models. An important ongoing debate is whether environmental constraints limit the number of species that can coexist in a community (saturation), with recent findings suggesting that species richness in many communities might be unsaturated. Here, we propose that biodiversity models could address this issue by accounting for a duality: considering communities as unsaturated but where species composition is constrained by different scale-dependent biodiversity drivers. We identify a variety of promising advances for incorporating this duality into commonly applied biodiversity modelling approaches and improving their spatial predictions.

The majority of biodiversity modelling approaches do not explicitly address the question of saturation.

Theoretical and methodological implications of saturation or unsaturation in biodiversity modelling.

Addressing saturation or unsaturation is vital to produce more reliable conservation strategies.

Integrative community modelling frameworks may be the way forward.

Controlling for the species-area effect supports constrained long-term Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate diversification

Variation in the geographic spread of fossil localities strongly biases inferences about the evolution of biodiversity, due to the ubiquitous scaling of species richness with area. This obscures answers to key questions, such as how tetrapods attained their tremendous extant diversity. Here, we address this problem by applying sampling standardization methods to spatial regions of equal size, within a global Mesozoic-early Palaeogene data set of non-flying terrestrial tetrapods. We recover no significant increase in species richness between the Late Triassic and the Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K/Pg) boundary, strongly supporting bounded diversification in Mesozoic tetrapods. An abrupt tripling of richness in the earliest Palaeogene suggests that this diversity equilibrium was reset following the K/Pg extinction. Spatial heterogeneity in sampling is among the most important biases of fossil data, but has often been overlooked. Our results indicate that controlling for variance in geographic spread in the fossil record significantly impacts inferred patterns of diversity through time.

Species richness increases with area sampled, potentially confounding biodiversity patterns from the fossil record. Here, the authors standardize spatial sampling to control for this bias and show that terrestrial vertebrate diversification was bounded during the Mesozoic but that equilibria were reset following the K/Pg extinction.

Shaping the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: New Perspectives from a Synthesis of Paleobiology and Biogeography

An impediment to understanding the origin and dynamics of the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)-the most pervasive large-scale biotic pattern on Earth-has been the tendency to focus narrowly on a single causal factor when a more synthetic, integrative approach is needed. Using marine bivalves as a model system and drawing on other systems where possible, we review paleobiologic and biogeographic support for two supposedly opposing views, that the LDG is shaped primarily by (a) local environmental factors that determine the number of species and higher taxa at a given latitude (in situ hypotheses) or (b) the entry of lineages arising elsewhere into a focal region (spatial dynamics hypotheses). Support for in situ hypotheses includes the fit of present-day diversity trends in many clades to such environmental factors as temperature and the correlation of extinction intensities in Pliocene bivalve faunas with net regional temperature changes. Support for spatial dynamics hypotheses includes the age-frequency distribution of bivalve genera across latitudes, which is consistent with an out-of-the-tropics dynamic, as are the higher species diversities in temperate southeastern Australia and southeastern Japan than in the tropical Caribbean. Thus, both in situ and spatial dynamics processes must shape the bivalve LDG and are likely to operate in other groups as well. The relative strengths of the two processes may differ among groups showing similar LDGs, but dissecting their effects will require improved methods of integrating fossil data with molecular phylogenies. We highlight several potential research directions and argue that many of the most dramatic biotic patterns, past and present, are likely to have been generated by diverse, mutually reinforcing drivers.

Latitudinal diversity gradients in Mesozoic non-marine turtles

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG)-the pattern of increasing taxonomic richness with decreasing latitude-is prevalent in the structure of the modern biota. However, some freshwater taxa show peak richness at mid-latitudes; for example, extant Testudines (turtles, terrapins and tortoises) exhibit their greatest diversity at 25° N, a pattern sometimes attributed to recent bursts of climatically mediated species diversification. Here, we test whether this pattern also characterizes the Mesozoic distribution of turtles, to determine whether it was established during either their initial diversification or as a more modern phenomenon. Using global occurrence data for non-marine testudinate genera, we find that subsampled richness peaks at palaeolatitudes of 15-30° N in the Jurassic, 30-45° N through the Cretaceous to the Campanian, and from 30° to 60° N in the Maastrichtian. The absence of a significant diversity peak in southern latitudes is consistent with results from climatic models and turtle niche modelling that demonstrate a dearth of suitable turtle habitat in Gondwana during the Jurassic and Late Cretaceous. Our analyses confirm that the modern testudinate LBG has a deep-time origin and further demonstrate that LBGs are not always expressed as a smooth, equator-to-pole distribution.