Drivers of Rift Valley fever epidemics in Madagascar

Identification of a novel member of the genus Laulavirus (family Phenuiviridae) from the entomopathogenic ascomycete fungus Cordyceps javanica

The virus family Phenuiviridae (order Hareavirales, comprising segmented negative-sense single stranded RNA viruses) has highly diverse members that are known to infect animals, plants, protozoans, and fungi. In this study, we identified a novel phenuivirus infecting a strain of the entomopathogenic fungus Cordyceps javanica isolated from a small brown plant hopper (Laodelphax striatellus), and this virus was tentatively named "Cordyceps javanica negative-strand RNA virus 1" (CjNRSV1). The CjNRSV1 genome consists of three negative-sense single stranded RNA segments (RNA1-3) with lengths of 7252, 2401, and 1117 nt, respectively. The 3'- and 5'-terminal regions of the RNA1, 2, and 3 segments have identical sequences, and the termini of the RNA segments are complementary to each other, reflecting a common characteristic of viruses in the order Hareavirales. RNA1 encodes a large protein (∼274 kDa) containing a conserved domain for the bunyavirus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) superfamily, with 57-80% identity to the RdRP encoded by phenuiviruses in the genus Laulavirus. RNA2 encodes a protein (∼79 kDa) showing sequence similarity (47-63% identity) to the movement protein (MP, a plant viral cell-to-cell movement protein)-like protein (MP-L) encoded by RNA2 of laulaviruses. RNA3 encodes a protein (∼28 kDa) with a conserved domain of the phenuivirid nucleocapsid protein superfamily. Phylogenetic analysis using the RdRPs of various phenuiviruses and other unclassified phenuiviruses showed CjNRSV1 to be grouped with established members of the genus Laulavirus. Our results suggest that CjNRSV1 is a novel fungus-infecting member of the genus Laulavirus in the family Phenuiviridae.

Gullying and landscape evolution: Lavaka in Lac Alaotra, Madagascar shed light on rates of change and non-anthropogenic controls

Gully evolution remains poorly understood, largely because multidecadal analysis is lacking. Large gullies (called lavaka) that pepper Madagascar's highlands are generally attributed to human impact; but longitudinal data are few, and anthropogenic causation is inferred not verified. We focus on Lac Alaotra, Madagascar's largest lake and wetland, its major rice-growing region, and an ecological hotspot surrounded by fault-controlled steep hills with abundant lavaka. Analysis of historical aerial photographs and recent orthoimagery reveals that the proportion of highly active lavaka has decreased since mid-20th century. At the same time, human population, farming intensity, and livestock density have increased exponentially. This suggests that background factors, including seismicity, are primary drivers of lavaka formation. Although human activities may contribute to erosion overall, land management policies that overemphasize human causation of gullying and neglect background forcing factors (in Madagascar and elsewhere) are unlikely to be effective in erosion mitigation.

Identification of a negative-strand RNA virus with natural plant and fungal hosts

The presence of viruses that spread to both plant and fungal populations in nature has posed intriguingly scientific question. We found a negative-strand RNA virus related to members of the family Phenuiviridae, named Valsa mali negative-strand RNA virus 1 (VmNSRV1), which induced strong hypovirulence and was prevalent in a population of the phytopathogenic fungus of apple Valsa canker (Valsa mali) infecting apple orchards in the Shaanxi Province of China. Intriguingly, VmNSRV1 encodes a protein with a viral cell-to-cell movement function in plant tissue. Mechanical leaf inoculation showed that VmNSRV1 could systemically infect plants. Moreover, VmNSRV1 was detected in 24 out of 139 apple trees tested in orchards in Shaanxi Province. Fungal inoculation experiments showed that VmNSRV1 could be bidirectionally transmitted between apple plants and V. mali, and VmNSRV1 infection in plants reduced the development of fungal lesions on leaves. Additionally, the nucleocapsid protein encoded by VmNSRV1 is associated with and rearranged lipid droplets in both fungal and plant cells. VmNSRV1 represents a virus that has adapted and spread to both plant and fungal hosts and shuttles between these two organisms in nature (phyto-mycovirus) and is potential to be utilized for the biocontrol method against plant fungal diseases. This finding presents further insights into the virus evolution and adaptation encompassing both plant and fungal hosts.

Ability of a dynamical climate sensitive disease model to reproduce historical Rift Valley Fever outbreaks over Africa

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, and is considered a priority pathogen by the WHO. RVF epidemics mostly occur in Africa and can decimate livestock herds, causing significant economic losses and posing health risks for humans. RVF transmission is associated with the occurrence of El Niño events that cause floods in eastern Africa and favour the emergence of mosquitoes in wetlands. Different risk models have been developed to forecast RVF transmission risk but very few studies have validated models at pan-African scale. This study aims to validate the skill of the Liverpool Rift Valley Fever model (LRVF) in reproducing RVF epidemics over Africa and to explore the relationship between simulated climatic suitability for RVF transmission and large-scale climate modes of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Our results show that the LRVF model correctly simulates RVF transmission hotspots and reproduces large epidemics that affected African countries. LRVF was able to correctly reproduce major RVF epidemics in Somalia, Kenya, Zambia and to a lesser extent for Mauritania and Senegal. The positive phases of ENSO and DMI are associated with an increased risk of RVF over the Horn of Africa, with important time lags. Following research activities should focus on the development of predictive modelling systems at different time scales.

Effects of cattle on vector-borne disease risk to humans: A systematic review

Vector-borne pathogens (VBPs) causing vector-borne diseases (VBDs) can circulate among humans, domestic animals, and wildlife, with cattle in particular serving as an important source of exposure risk to humans. The close associations between humans and cattle can facilitate the transmission of numerous VBPs, impacting public health and economic security. Published studies demonstrate that cattle can influence human exposure risk positively, negatively, or have no effect. There is a critical need to synthesize the information in the scientific literature on this subject, in order to illuminate the various ecological mechanisms that can affect VBP exposure risk in humans. Therefore, the aim of this systematic review was to review the scientific literature, provide a synthesis of the possible effects of cattle on VBP risk to humans, and propose future directions for research. This study was performed according to the PRISMA 2020 extension guidelines for systematic review. After screening 470 peer-reviewed articles published between 1999-2019 using the databases Web of Science Core Collection, PubMed Central, CABI Global Health, and Google Scholar, and utilizing forward and backward search techniques, we identified 127 papers that met inclusion criteria. Results of the systematic review indicate that cattle can be beneficial or harmful to human health with respect to VBDs depending on vector and pathogen ecology and livestock management practices. Cattle can increase risk of exposure to infections spread by tsetse flies and ticks, followed by sandflies and mosquitoes, through a variety of mechanisms. However, cattle can have a protective effect when the vector prefers to feed on cattle instead of humans and when chemical control measures (e.g., acaricides/insecticides), semio-chemicals, and other integrated vector control measures are utilized in the community. We highlight that further research is needed to determine ways in which these mechanisms may be exploited to reduce VBD risk in humans.

Economic Aspects of Bovine Ephemeral Fever (BEF) Outbreaks in Dairy Cattle Herds

Bovine ephemeral fever virus (BEFV) is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) transmitted by blood-feeding insects (mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges). While the dispersal of arboviral diseases such as bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) into naive areas is often the result of globalization and animal movement, the endemization and local outbreaks of these diseases are mainly influenced by environmental changes. Climate change affects the activity, distribution, dynamics, and life cycles of these vectors (arthropods), the replication of viruses within their vectors, and weakens animal's immune systems. Although BEF does not currently occur in the Americas and Europe (other than in the western regions of Turkey), the risk of BEFV emergence, spread, and endemization in Europe is real. Over the past two decades, arboviruses such as the bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) have emerged in Europe without warning and caused significant losses to the dairy and meat industries. Since the European cattle population has never been exposed to BEFV, the economic losses to dairy and beef production in this continent due to the reduction in milk production, loss of valuable cows, and abortion, should BEF emerge, would probably be considerable. Moreover, arboviruses can also cause substantial financial damage due to restrictions on animal trade and transportation, like the current EHDV-8 outbreak in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we used national data stored in the Israeli herd book to examine the economic aspects of BEF outbreaks in affected dairy cattle farms countrywide. Our results demonstrate that BEF outbreaks can have immediate and delayed effects, causing severe economic losses due to culling (loss of valuable cows) and a reduction in milk production that affects dairy farm income for months after clinical diagnosis. To our knowledge, this is the first extensive study on the impact of a BEF outbreak at a population level, enabling to conduct accurate risk assessments in future cases of BEFV emergence and re-emergence.

Seroprevalence of Brucella spp. and Rift Valley fever virus among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County, northern Kenya

Brucella spp. and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) are classified as priority zoonotic agents in Kenya, based on their public health and socioeconomic impact on the country. Data on the pathogen-specific and co-exposure levels is scarce due to limited active surveillance. This study investigated seroprevalence and co-exposure of Brucella spp. and RVFV and associated risk factors among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County, northern Kenya. A cross-sectional serosurvey was done in all 19 slaughterhouses in Isiolo County, enrolling 378 participants into the study. The overall seroprevalences for Brucella spp. and RVFV were 40.2% (95% CI: 35.2-45.4) and 18.3% (95% CI: 14.5-22.5), respectively while 10.3% (95% CI 7.4%-13.8%) of individuals were positive for antibodies against both Brucella spp. and RVFV. Virus neutralisation tests (VNT) confirmed anti-RVFV antibodies in 85% of ELISA-positive samples. Our seroprevalence results were comparable to community-level seroprevalences previously reported in the area. Since most of the study participants were not from livestock-keeping households, our findings attribute most of the detected infections to occupational exposure. The high exposure levels indicate slaughterhouse workers are the most at-risk population and there is need for infection, prevention, and control programs among this high-risk group. This is the first VNT confirmation of virus-neutralising antibodies among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County and corroborates reports of the area being a high-risk RVFV area as occasioned by previously reported outbreaks. This necessitates sensitization campaigns to enhance awareness of the risks involved and appropriate mitigation measures.

Environmental and economic determinants of temporal dynamics of the ruminant movement network of Senegal

Our understanding of the drivers of the temporal dynamics of livestock mobility networks is currently limited, despite their significant implications for the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. We analyzed the effect of time-varying environmental and economic variables-biomass production, rainfall, livestock market prices, and religious calendar on long-distance movements of cattle and small ruminant herds in Senegal in the years 2014 and 2019. We used principal component analysis to explore the variation of the hypothesized explanatory variables in space and time and a generalized additive modelling approach to assess the effect of those variables on the likelihood of herd movement between pairs of administrative units. Contrary to environmental variables, the patterns of variation of market prices show significant differences across locations. The explanatory variables at origin had the highest contribution to the model deviance reduction. Biomass production and rainfall were found to affect the likelihood of herd movement for both species on at least 1 year. Market price at origin had a strong and consistent effect on the departure of small ruminant herds. Our study shows the potential benefits of regular monitoring of market prices for future efforts at forecasting livestock movements and associated sanitary risks.

Adaptation to a Multiplex Bead Assay and Seroprevalence to Rift Valley Fever N Protein: Nampula Province, Mozambique, 2013-2014

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with outbreaks reported in the Arabian Peninsula and throughout SSA. The natural reservoir for RVFV are ruminants, with livestock populations exceeding 50% exposure rates in some areas of SSA. Transmission to humans can occur through exposure to infected livestock products or multiple species of mosquito vectors. In 2013 and 2014, cross-sectional surveys occurred in two districts of Nacala-a-Velha and Mecubúri in northern Mozambique, and participants provided blood samples for later serological assays. IgG against the N protein of RVFV was detected through multiplex bead assay (MBA). Of the 2,278 persons enrolled between the two surveys and study sites, 181 (7.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9%-9.1%) were found to be IgG seropositive with increasing seroprevalence with older age and significantly higher seroprevalence in Nacala-a-Velha (10.5%, 8.8%-12.5%) versus Mecubúri (5.7%, 4.5%-7.1%). Seroprevalence estimates were not significantly different between the 2013 and 2014 surveys. Significant spatial clustering of IgG positive persons were consistent among surveys and within the two districts, pointing toward the consistency of serology data for making population-level assumptions regarding RVFV seroprevalence. A subset of persons (n = 539) provided samples for both the 2013 and 2014 surveys, and a low percentage (0.81%) of these were found to seroconvert between these two surveys. Including the RVFV N protein in an MBA antigen panel could assist elucidate RVFV exposure in SSA. IMPORTANCE Due to sporadic transmission, human contact with Rift Valley Fever Virus (RVFV) is difficult to ascertain at a population level. Detection of antibodies against RVFV antigens assist in estimating exposure as antibodies remain in the host long after the virus has been cleared. In this study, we show that antibodies against RVFV N protein can be detected from dried blood spot (DBS) samples being assayed by multiplex bead assay. DBS from two districts in northern Mozambique were tested for IgG against the N protein, and 7.9% of all enrolled persons were seropositive. Older persons, males, and persons residing closer to the coast had higher RVFV N protein seroprevalence. Spatial clustering of IgG positive persons was noted in both districts. These results show low exposure rates to RVFV in these two northern districts in Mozambique, and the ability to perform serology for the RVFV N protein from dried blood samples.

Structural Modifications and Biological Evaluations of Rift Valley Fever Virus Inhibitors Identified from Chemical Library Screening

The Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an emerging high-priority pathogen endemic in Africa with pandemic potential. There is no specific treatment or approved antiviral drugs for the RVFV. We previously developed a cell-based high-throughput assay to screen small molecules targeting the RVFV and identified a potential effective antiviral compound (1-N-(2-(biphenyl-4-yloxy)ethyl)propane-1,3-diamine) as a lead compound. Here, we investigated how structural modifications of the lead compound affected the biological properties and the antiviral effect against the RVFV. We found that the length of the 2-(3-aminopropylamino)ethyl chain of the compound was important for the compound to retain its antiviral activity. The antiviral activity was similar when the 2-(3-aminopropylamino)ethyl chain was replaced with a butyl piperazine chain. However, we could improve the cytotoxicity profile of the lead compound by changing the phenyl piperazine linker from the para-position (compound 9a) to the meta-position (compound 13a). Results from time-of-addition studies suggested that compound 13a might be active during virus post-entry and/or the replication phase of the virus life cycle and seemed to affect the K⁺ channel. The modifications improved the properties of our lead compound, and our data suggest that 13a is a promising candidate to evaluate further as a therapeutic agent for RVFV infection.

Infectious disease in an era of global change

The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Zika virus disease epidemic all resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality while spreading across borders to infect people in multiple countries. At the same time, the past few decades have ushered in an unprecedented era of technological, demographic and climatic change: airline flights have doubled since 2000, since 2007 more people live in urban areas than rural areas, population numbers continue to climb and climate change presents an escalating threat to society. In this Review, we consider the extent to which these recent global changes have increased the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, even as improved sanitation and access to health care have resulted in considerable progress worldwide.

Rift valley fever in Africa with the emerging interest in Libya

Rift valley fever (RVF) is an acute vector-borne viral zoonotic disease of domestic and wild ruminants. The RVF virus (RVFV) belonging to the Phlebovirus genus of the Bunyaviridae family causes this disease. Studies have shown that mosquitoes are the vectors that transmit RVFV. Specifically, Aedes and Culex mosquito species are among the many vectors of this virus, which affects not only sheep, goats, buffalo, cattle, and camels but also human beings. Since the 30s of the last century, RVF struck Africa, and to a lesser extent, Asian continents, with subsequent episodes of epizootic, epidemic, and sporadic outbreaks. These outbreaks, therefore, resulted in the cumulative loss of thousands of human lives, thereby disrupting the livestock market or only those with seropositive cases. After that outbreak episode, RVF was not reported in Libya until January 13, 2020, where it was reported for the 1st time in a flock of sheep and goats in the southern region of the country. Although insufficient evidence to support RVF clinical cases among the confirmed seropositive animals exists, neither human cases nor death were reported in Libya. Yet, the overtime expansion of RVF kinetics in the Libyan neighborhoods, in addition to the instability and security vacuum experienced in the country, lack of outbreak preparedness, and the availability of suitable climatic and disease vector factors, makes this country a possible future scene candidate for RVF expansion. Urgently, strengthening veterinary services (VS) and laboratory diagnostic capacities, including improvement of monitoring and surveillance activity programs, should be implemented in areas at risk (where imported animals crossing borders from Libyan neighborhoods and competent vectors are found) at national, sub-national, and regional levels. The Libyan government should also implement a tripartite framework (one health approach) among the veterinary public health, public health authority, and environmental sanitation sectors to implement RVF surveillance protocols, along with an active partnership with competent international bodies (OIE, FAO, and WHO). Therefore, this review comprises the most updated data regarding the epidemiological situation of RVF infections and its socioeconomic impacts on African and Asian continents, and also emphasize the emerging interest of RVF in Libya.

Critical Systematic Review of Zoonoses and Transboundary Animal Diseases' Prioritization in Africa

Background: Disease prioritization aims to enhance resource use efficiency concerning human and animal health systems’ preparedness and response to the most important problems for the optimization of beneficial outcomes. In sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), several prioritizations of zoonoses and transboundary animal diseases (TADs) have been implemented at different scales to characterize potential disease impacts. Method and principal findings: In this systematic review, we analyze the methodologies used, outcomes, and their relevance by discussing criteria required to align decision-makers’ perceptions of impacts to those of other stakeholders for different prioritization in SSA. In general, the sectorial representativeness of stakeholders for processes implemented with the support of international partners showed slight differences with the absence of local stakeholders. Whatever the tool prioritized, zoonoses were similar in general because of the structured nature of those tools in assessing decision-makers’ preferences through value trade-offs between criteria while ensuring transparency and reproducibility. However, by involving field practitioners and farmers, there were different outcomes with processes concerning only decision makers and experts who were more sensitive to infectious TADs, while the former raised parasitic disease constraints. In this context, multicriteria decision analysis-based zoonoses and TADs prioritizations involving a balanced participation of stakeholders might contribute to bridging these divergences, whatever the scale. Conclusion and significance: Prioritization processes were important steps toward building and harmonizing technical laboratory and surveillance networks to coordinate projects to address priority zoonoses and TADs at the country and/or sub-regional level. Those processes should be enhanced.

Rift valley fever: diagnostic challenges and investment needs for vaccine development

Rift valley fever virus (RVFV) is a causative agent of a viral zoonosis that constitutes a major clinical burden in wild and domestic ruminants. The virus causes major outbreaks in livestock (sheep, goats, cattle and camels) and can be transmitted to humans by contaminated animal products or via arthropod vectors. Human-to-human transmission has not been reported to date, but spill-over events from animals have led to outbreaks in humans in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Currently, there is no licensed human vaccine against RVFV and the virus is listed as a priority pathogen by the World Health Organisation (WHO) due to the high epidemic potential and the lack of effective countermeasures. Multiple large RVFV outbreaks have been reported since the virus was discovered. During the last two decades, over 4000 cases and ~1000 deaths have been reported. The lack of systematic surveillance to estimate the true burden and incidence of human RVF disease is a challenge for planning future vaccine efficacy evaluation. This creates a need for robust diagnostic methodologies that can be deployed in remote regions to aid case confirmation, assessment of seroprevalence as well as pathogen surveillance required for the different stages of vaccine evaluation. Here, we perform comprehensive landscaping of the available diagnostic solutions for detection of RVFV in humans. Based on the identified gaps in the currently available in-house and commercially available methods, we highlight the specific investment needs for diagnostics that are critical for accelerating the development of effective vaccines against RVFV.

Serological evidence of Rift Valley fever virus infection among domestic ruminant herds in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Prior to the first recorded outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Uganda, in March 2016, earlier studies done until the 1970's indicated the presence of the RVF virus (RVFV) in the country, without any recorded outbreaks in either man or animals. While severe outbreaks of RVF occurred in the neighboring countries, none were reported in Uganda despite forecasts that placed some parts of Uganda at similar risk. The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) undertook studies to determine the RVF sero-prevalence in risk prone areas. Three datasets from cattle sheep and goats were obtained; one from retrospective samples collected in 2010-2011 from the northern region; the second from the western region in 2013 while the third was from a cross-sectional survey done in 2016 in the south-western region. Laboratory analysis involved the use of the Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISA). Data were subjected to descriptive statistical analyses, including non-parametric chi-square tests for comparisons between districts and species in the regions.

RESULTS

During the Yellow Fever outbreak investigation of 2010-2011 in the northern region, a total sero-prevalence of 6.7% was obtained for anti RVFV reacting antibodies (IgG and IgM) among the domestic ruminant population. The 2013 sero-survey in the western region showed a prevalence of 18.6% in cattle and 2.3% in small ruminants. The 2016 sero-survey in the districts of Kabale, Kanungu, Kasese, Kisoro and Rubirizi, in the south-western region, had the respective district RVF sero-prevalence of 16.0, 2.1, 0.8, 15.1and 2.7% among the domestic ruminants combined for this region; bovines exhibited the highest cumulative sero-prevalence of 15.2%, compared to 5.3 and 4.0% respectively for sheep and goats per species for the region.

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of apparent outbreaks in Uganda, despite neighboring enzootic areas, having minimal restrictions to the exchange of livestock and their products across borders, suggest an unexpected RVF activity in the study areas that needs to be unraveled. Therefore, more in-depth studies are planned to mitigate the risk of an overt RVF outbreak in humans and animals as has occurred in neighboring countries.

Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce-data environments: A Spatial Qualitative Risk Analysis applied to foot-and-mouth disease in Tunisia 2014-2019

This article presents a participative and iterative qualitative risk assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed through regional training action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field, and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the risk factors into ordinal levels of risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of risk-based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a qualitative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic. Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high-risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown. The relative risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread risk categories. Our results show that the qualitative risk assessment framework can be a useful decision support tool for risk-based disease surveillance and control, in particular in scarce-data environments.

Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa

(1) Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in domestic ruminants have severe socio-economic impacts. Climate-based continental predictions providing early warnings to regions at risk for RVF outbreaks are not of a high enough resolution for ruminant owners to assess their individual risk. (2) Methods: We analyzed risk factors for RVF occurrence and severity at the farm level using the number of domestic ruminant deaths and abortions reported by farmers in central South Africa during the 2010 RVF outbreaks using a Bayesian multinomial hurdle framework. (3) Results: We found strong support that the proportion of days with precipitation, the number of water sources, and the proportion of goats in the herd were positively associated with increased severity of RVF (the numbers of deaths and abortions). We did not find an association between any risk factors and whether RVF was reported on farms. (4) Conclusions: At the farm level we identified risk factors of RVF severity; however, there was little support for risk factors of RVF occurrence. The identification of farm-level risk factors for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) occurrence would support and potentially improve current prediction methods and would provide animal owners with critical information needed in order to assess their herd's risk of RVFV infection.

Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability

BACKGROUND

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target.

METHODS

We combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Using boosted regression trees, we made monthly environmental suitability predictions from January 1995 to December 2016 at a 5 × 5-km resolution throughout regions of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. We calculated the average number of months per year suitable for transmission, the mean suitability for each calendar month, and the "spillover potential," a measure incorporating suitability with human and livestock populations.

RESULTS

Several countries where cases have not yet been reported are suitable for RVF. Areas across the region of interest are suitable for transmission at different times of the year, and some areas are suitable for multiple seasons each year. Spillover potential results show areas within countries where high populations of humans and livestock are at risk for much of the year.

CONCLUSIONS

The widespread environmental suitability of RVF highlights the need for increased preparedness, even in countries that have not previously experienced cases. These maps can aid in prioritizing long-term RVF preparedness activities and determining optimal times for recurring preparedness activities. Given an outbreak, our results can highlight areas often at risk for subsequent transmission that month, enabling decision-makers to target responses effectively.

Seropositivity and associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors for Rift Valley fever virus occurrence in pastoral herds of Nigeria: a cross sectional survey

Background

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne emerging zoonotic disease of animals and humans, characterized by socioeconomic losses to livestock farmers and global public health threat. The study determined RVFV seroprevalence in cattle, assessed pastoralists’ knowledge about RVF, and factors that influence its occurrence in pastoral cattle herds of Nigeria. A cross-sectional study was conducted in pastoral herds of North-central Nigeria from 2017 to 2018. Data were collected using serology and questionnaire tools. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the obtained data. Categorical variables were presented as proportions and their associations determined by Chi-square tests. Associations of risk factors were analyzed by univariable and multivariable logistic regressions analyses at 95% confidence level.

Results

The overall IgM seropositivity of RVFV in pastoral cattle herds was 5.6%. This was higher in nomadic herds (7.4%) than in agro-pastoral herds (3.8%). All animal demographic characteristics of age, sex and breeds were not significantly (p > 0.05) associated with RVFV occurrence in pastoral herds. All the 403 pastoralists selected participated in the study, with the majorities of them being male, married and have no formal education. Majority of the pastoralists had low knowledge levels about zoonotic RVFV infection. All identified socio-ecological factors significantly (p < 0.05) influenced RVFV occurrence in herds. Mosquitoes availability in cattle environment (OR = 7.81; 95% CI: 4.85, 12.37), presence of rivers and streams at grazing fields (OR = 10.80; 95% CI: 6.77, 17.34), high rainfall (OR = 4.30; 95% CI: 2.74, 6.59), irrigated rice fields (OR = 5.14; 95% CI: 3.21, 7.79), bushy vegetation (OR = 6.11; 95% CI: 3.96, 9.43), animal movement (OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.45, 3.25), and seasons (OR = 2.34; 95% CI: 1.55, 3.51) were more likely to influenced RVFV occurrence in cattle herds.

Conclusions

Results of this study had illustrated recent circulation of RVFV in pastoral cattle herds in Nigeria and needs urgent interventions. The surveyed pastoralists had low knowledge level about RVF while the socio-ecological factors significantly influenced RVFV occurrence in herds. To address these gaps, pastoralists should be educated on clinical manifestations and modes of transmission of the disease in animals and humans, and mitigation measures. Adequate knowledge about RVF epidemiology will assure food security and public health.

Rift Valley Fever: Important Considerations for Risk Mitigation and Future Outbreaks

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic phlebovirus of the Phenuiviridae family with great opportunity for emergence in previously unaffected regions, despite its current geographical limits. Outbreaks of RVFV often infect humans or domesticated animals, such as livestock, concurrently and occur sporadically, ranging from localized outbreaks in villages to multi-country events that spread rapidly. The true burden of Rift Valley fever (RVF) is not well defined due to underreporting, misdiagnosis caused by the broad spectrum of disease presentation, and minimal access for rapid and accurate laboratory confirmation. Severe symptoms may include hemorrhagic fever, loss of vision, psychological impairment or disturbances, and organ failure. Those living in endemic areas and travelers should be aware of the potential for exposure to ongoing outbreaks or interepidemic transmission, and engage in behaviors to minimize exposure risks, as vaccinations in humans are currently unavailable and animal vaccinations are not used routinely or ubiquitously. The lack of vaccines approved for use in humans is concerning, as RVFV has proven to be highly pathogenic in naïve populations, causing severe disease in a large percent of confirmed cases, which could have considerable impact on human health.

Rift Valley fever in northern Senegal: A modelling approach to analyse the processes underlying virus circulation recurrence

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is endemic in northern Senegal, a Sahelian area characterized by a temporary pond network that drive both RVF mosquito population dynamics and nomadic herd movements. To investigate the mechanisms that explain RVF recurrent circulation, we modelled a realistic epidemiological system at the pond level integrating vector population dynamics, resident and nomadic ruminant herd population dynamics, and nomadic herd movements recorded in Younoufere area. To calibrate the model, serological surveys were performed in 2015–2016 on both resident and nomadic domestic herds in the same area. Mosquito population dynamics were obtained from a published model trained in the same region. Model comparison techniques were used to compare five different scenarios of virus introduction by nomadic herds associated or not with vertical transmission in Aedes vexans. Our serological results confirmed a long lasting RVF endemicity in resident herds (IgG seroprevalence rate of 15.3%, n = 222), and provided the first estimation of RVF IgG seroprevalence in nomadic herds in West Africa (12.4%, n = 660). Multivariate analysis of serological data suggested an amplification of the transmission cycle during the rainy season with a peak of circulation at the end of that season. The best scenario of virus introduction combined yearly introductions of RVFV from 2008 to 2015 (the study period) by nomadic herds, with a proportion of viraemic individuals predicted to be larger in animals arriving during the 2^nd half of the rainy season (3.4%). This result is coherent with the IgM prevalence rate (4%) found in nomadic herds sampled during the 2^nd half of the rainy season. Although the existence of a vertical transmission mechanism in Aedes cannot be ruled out, our model demonstrates that nomadic movements are sufficient to account for this endemic circulation in northern Senegal.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is one of the most important vector borne disease in Africa, seriously affecting the health of domestic ruminants and humans and leading to severe economic consequences. This disease is endemic in northern Senegal, a Sahelian area characterized by a temporary pond network that drive both RVF mosquito population dynamics and nomadic herd movements. Two non-exclusive mechanisms may support this endemicity: recurrent introductions of the virus by nomadic animals, and vertical transmission of the virus (i.e. from infected female mosquito to eggs) in local Aedes populations. The authors followed resident and nomadic domestic herds for 1 year. They used the data thus obtained to model a realistic epidemiological system at the pond level integrating vector population dynamics, resident and nomadic ruminant herd population dynamics. They found that the best scenario explaining RVF remanence combined yearly introductions of RVFV by nomadic herds, with a viraemic proportion predicted to be larger in animals arriving during the 2^nd half of the rainy season, which is consistent with an amplification of virus circulation in the area during the rainy season. Although the existence of a vertical transmission mechanism in Aedes cannot be ruled out, their results demonstrates that nomadic movements are sufficient to account for this endemic circulation in northern Senegal.

Rift Valley Fever: risk of persistence, spread and impact in Mayotte (France)

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by different mosquito species, especially Aedes and Culex genus, to animals and humans. In November 2018, RVF re-emerged in Mayotte (France) after 11 years. Up to the end of October 2019, 126 outbreaks in animals and 143 human cases were reported. RVF mortality was 0.01%, and the number of abortions reported in polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive ruminants was fivefold greater than the previous 7 years. Milk loss production in 2019 compared to 2015-2018 was estimated to be 18%, corresponding to an economic loss of around €191,000 in all of Mayotte. The tropical climate in Mayotte provides conditions for the presence of mosquitoes during the whole year, and illegal introductions of animals represent a continuous risk of (re)introduction of RVF. The probability of RVF virus (RVFV) persisting in Mayotte for 5 or more years was estimated to be < 10% but could be much lower if vertical transmission in vectors does not occur. Persistence of RVF by vertical transmission in Mayotte and Réunion appears to be of minor relevance compared to other pathways of re-introduction (i.e. animal movement). However, there is a high uncertainty since there is limited information about the vertical transmission of some of the major species of vectors of RVFV in Mayotte and Réunion. The only identified pathways for the risk of spread of RVF from Mayotte to other countries were by infected vectors transported in airplanes or by wind currents. For the former, the risk of introduction of RVF to continental France was estimated to 4 × 10-6 epidemic per year (median value; 95% CI: 2 × 10-8; 0.0007), and 0.001 epidemic per year to Réunion (95% CI: 4 × 10-6; 0.16). For the latter pathway, mosquitoes dispersing on the wind from Mayotte between January and April 2019 could have reached the Comoros Islands, Madagascar, Mozambique and, possibly, Tanzania. However, these countries are already endemic for RVF, and an incursion of RVFV-infected mosquitoes would have negligible impact.

Mechanisms of inter-epidemic maintenance of Rift Valley fever phlebovirus

Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV) is an arthropod-borne virus that has caused substantial epidemics throughout Africa and in the Arabian Peninsula. The virus can cause severe disease in livestock and humans and therefore the control and prevention of viral outbreaks is of utmost importance. The epidemiology of RVFV has some particular characteristics. Unexpected and significant epidemics have been observed in spatially and temporally divergent patterns across the African continent. Sudden epidemics in previously unaffected areas are followed by periods of long-term apparent absence of virus and sudden, unpredictable reoccurrence in disparate regions. Therefore, the elucidation of underlying mechanisms of viral maintenance is one of the largest gaps in the knowledge of RVFV ecology. It remains unknown whether the virus needs to be reintroduced before RVF outbreaks can occur, or if unperceived viral circulation in local vertebrates or mosquitoes is sufficient for maintenance of the virus. To gain insight into these knowledge gaps, we here review existing data that describe potential mechanisms of RVFV maintenance, as well as molecular and serological studies in endemic and non-endemic areas that provide evidence of an inter- or pre-epidemic virus presence. Basic and country-specific mechanisms of RVFV introduction into non-endemic countries are summarized and an overview of studies using mathematical modeling of RVFV persistence is given.

Application of exponential random graph models to determine nomadic herders' movements in Senegal

Understanding human and animal mobility patterns is a key to predict local and global disease spread. We analysed the nomad herds' movement network in a pilot area of northern Senegal and used exponential random graph models (ERGM) to investigate the reasons behind these movements. We interviewed 132 nomadic herders to collect information about nomad herd structures, movements, and reasons for taking specific routes or gathering in certain areas. We constructed a spatially explicit network with villages as the nodes and nomad herds' movements as the connecting edges. The final ERGM showed that node and edge attributes such as presence of cattle in the herd (odds ratio = 12, CI: 5.3, 27.3), morbidity (odds ratio = 3.6, CI: 2.3, 5.7), and lack of water (odds ratio = 2, CI: 1.3, 3.1) were important predictors of nomad herds' movements. This study not only provides valuable information for monitoring important livestock diseases such as Rift Valley Fever in Senegal, but also helps implement outreach, education, and intervention programs for other emerging and endemic diseases affecting nomadic herds.

Culicoides Latreille in the sun: faunistic inventory of Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Mayotte (Comoros Archipelago, Indian Ocean)

BACKGROUND

The south-west insular territories of the Indian Ocean have recently received attention concerning the diversity of arthropods of medical or veterinary interest. While a recent study highlighted the circulation of Culicoides-borne viruses, namely bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic disease, with clinical cases in Mayotte (comprising two islands, Petite-Terre and Grand-Terre), Comoros Archipelago, no data have been published concerning the species diversity of Culicoides present on the two islands.

RESULTS

A total of 194,734 biting midges were collected in 18 sites, covering two collection sessions (April and June) in Mayotte. Our study reports for the first time livestock-associated Culicoides species and recorded at least 17 described Afrotropical species and one undescribed species. The most abundant species during the April collection session were C. trifasciellus (84.1%), C. bolitinos (5.4%), C. enderleini (3.9%), C. leucostictus (3.3%) and C. rhizophorensis (2.1%). All other species including C. imicola represented less than 1% of the total collection. Abundance ranged between 126-78,842 females with a mean and median abundance of 14,338 and 5111 individuals/night/site, respectively. During the June collection, the abundance per night was low, ranging between 6-475 individuals. Despite low abundance, C. trifasciellus and C. bolitinos were still the most abundant species. Culicoides sp. #50 is recorded for the first time outside South Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reports for the first time the Culicoides species list for Mayotte, Comoros Archipelago, Indian Ocean. The low abundance and rare occurrence of C. imicola, which is usually considered the most abundant species in the Afrotropical region, is unexpected. The most abundant and frequent species is C. trifasciellus, which is not considered as a vector species so far, but its role needs further investigation. Further work is needed to describe Culicoides sp. #50 and to carry on faunistic investigations on the other islands of the archipelago as well as in neighboring countries.

The influence of raw milk exposures on Rift Valley fever virus transmission

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic phlebovirus that can be transmitted to humans or livestock by mosquitoes or through direct contact with contaminated bodily fluids and tissues. Exposure to bodily fluids and tissues varies by types of behaviors engaged for occupational tasks, homestead responsibilities, or use in dietary or therapeutic capacities. While previous studies have included milk exposures in their analyses, their primary focus on livestock exposures has been on animal handling, breeding, and slaughter. We analyzed data from multiple field surveys in Kenya with the aim of associating RVFV infection to raw milk exposures from common animal species. Of those with evidence of prior RVFV infection by serology (n = 267), 77.2% engaged in milking livestock compared to 32.0% for 3,956 co-local seronegative individuals (p < 0.001), and 86.5% of seropositive individuals consumed raw milk compared to 33.4% seronegative individuals (p < 0.001). Individuals who milked and also consumed raw milk had greater odds of RVFV exposure than individuals whose only contact to raw milk was through milking. Increased risks were associated with exposure to milk sourced from cows (p < 0.001), sheep (p < 0.001), and goats (p < 0.001), but not camels (p = 0.98 for consuming, p = 0.21 for milking). Our data suggest that exposure to raw milk may contribute to a significant number of cases of RVFV, especially during outbreaks and in endemic areas, and that some animal species may be associated with a higher risk for RVFV exposure. Livestock trade is regulated to limit RVFV spread from endemic areas, yet further interventions designed to fully understand the risk of RVFV exposure from raw milk are imperative.

Hepatitis in slaughterhouse workers

Slaughterhouse workers (SHW) are at increased risk of hepatitis which can occur due to different organisms and should be investigated for viral, bacterial, and parasitic organisms. Slaughter house personnel including butchers are at a higher risk of infections from cuts and blood-letting, with the possible risk of the transmission of blood-borne pathogens to their colleagues. The objective of this review is to evaluate the common etiologies of hepatitis in SHW which will assist in the assessment of these patients presenting with transaminitis. Types of Microorganisms causing hepatitis with their reservoirs, routes of transmission, laboratory diagnosis, clinical features, treatment options and preventive strategies are included in this review. Proper investigation and awareness is of utmost importance as it causes significant financial constraints derived from workers health cost and from livestock production losses when the disease is confirmed. The work up is essential because infected workers might be a source of infections to other colleagues, family and the consumers.

First occurrence of Rift Valley fever outbreak in Niger, 2016

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito‐borne viral zoonosis causing abortions and high mortality among animals, whereas in humans, the disease is usually mild or asymptomatic. In September 2016, the Republic of Niger declared the first RVF outbreak in the northern region of Tahoua near the Malian border. This study describes the outbreak and reports the results of serological and molecular investigations of the human and animal samples collected. Serum samples from both human and animal suspected cases have been confirmed at the Centre de Recherche Médicale et Sanitaire (CERMES) and the Laboratoire Centrale d'Elevage (LABOCEL) public health and animal reference laboratories, respectively. Techniques for biological confirmation were real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR) and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Phylogenetic trees were established after genetic sequencing of the small and medium segments of the RVF virus (RVFV) genome. Out of the 399 human samples collected, 17 (4.3%) were confirmed positive for RVFV. Overall, 33 (8.3%) deaths occurred out of which five (29%) were among the 17 confirmed cases. Regarding animals, 45 samples were tested, three of which were RT‐PCR positive and 24 were IgG positive. The phylogenetic analyses showed that the Niger strains clustered with Senegal 2013 and Mauritania 2015 RVFV strains. This first outbreak of RVF was very challenging for public and animal health laboratories in Niger. Besides resulting in human deaths, important loss of cattle has been reported. Therefore, vigilance has to be strengthened emphasising vector control strategies and active surveillance among animals.

Livestock trade network: potential for disease transmission and implications for risk-based surveillance on the island of Mayotte

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte.

Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) of humans and domestic animals are a significant component of the global burden of disease and a key driver of poverty. The transmission cycles of VBDs are often strongly mediated by the ecological requirements of the vectors, resulting in complex transmission dynamics, including intermittent epidemics and an unclear link between environmental conditions and disease persistence. An important broader concern is the extent to which theoretical models are reliable at forecasting VBDs; infection dynamics can be complex, and the resulting systems are highly unstable. Here, we examine these problems in detail using a case study of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a high-burden disease endemic to Africa. We develop an ecoepidemiological, compartmental, mathematical model coupled to the dynamics of ambient temperature and water availability and apply it to a realistic setting using empirical environmental data from Kenya. Importantly, we identify the range of seasonally varying ambient temperatures and water-body availability that leads to either the extinction of mosquito populations and/or RVF (nonpersistent regimens) or the establishment of long-term mosquito populations and consequently, the endemicity of the RVF infection (persistent regimens). Instabilities arise when the range of the environmental variables overlaps with the threshold of persistence. The model captures the intermittent nature of RVF occurrence, which is explained as low-level circulation under the threshold of detection, with intermittent emergence sometimes after long periods. Using the approach developed here opens up the ability to improve predictions of the emergence and behaviors of epidemics of many other important VBDs.

Predictive gravity models of livestock mobility in Mauritania: The effects of supply, demand and cultural factors

Animal movements are typically driven by areas of supply and demand for animal products and by the seasonality of production and demand. As animals can potentially spread infectious diseases, disease prevention can benefit from a better understanding of the factors influencing movements patterns in space and time. In Mauritania, an important cultural event, called the Tabaski (Aïd el Kebir) strongly affects timing and structure of movements, and due to the arid and semi-arid climatic conditions, the season can also influence movement patterns. In order to better characterize the animal movements patterns, a survey was carried out in 2014, and those data were analysed here using social network analysis (SNA) metrics and used to train predictive gravity models. More specifically, we aimed to contrast the movements structure by ruminant species, season (Tabaski vs. Non-Tabaski) and mode of transport (truck vs. foot). The networks differed according to the species, and to the season, with a changed proportion of truck vs. foot movements. The gravity models were able to predict the probability of a movement link between two locations with moderate to good accuracy (AUC ranging from 0.76 to 0.97), according to species, seasons, and mode of transport, but we failed to predict the traded volume of those trade links. The significant predictor variables of a movement link were the human and sheep population at the source and origin, and the distance separating the locations. Though some improvements would be needed to predict traded volumes and better account for the barriers to mobility, the results provide useful predictions to inform epidemiological models in space and time, and, upon external validation, could be useful to predict movements at a larger regional scale.

Towards the description of livestock mobility in Sahelian Africa: Some results from a survey in Mauritania

Understanding spatio-temporal patterns of host mobility is a key factor to prevent and control animal and human diseases. This is utterly important in low-income countries, where animal disease epidemics have strong socio-economic impacts. In this article we analyzed a livestock mobility database, whose data have been collected by the Centre National d'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (CNERV) Mauritania, to describe its patterns and temporal evolution. Data were collected through phone and face-to-face interviews in almost all the regions in Mauritania over a period of roughly two weeks during June 2015. The analysis has shown the existence of two mobility patterns throughout the year: the first related to routine movements from January to August; the second strictly connected to the religious festivity of Tabaski that in 2014 occurred at the beginning of October. These mobility patterns are different in terms of animals involved (fewer cattle and dromedaries are traded around Tabaski), the means of transportation (the volume of animals moved by truck raises around Tabaski) and destinations (most of the animals are traded nationally around Tabaski). Due to the differences between these two periods, public health officers, researchers and other stakeholders should take account of the time of the year when implementing vaccination campaigns or creating surveillance networks.

Ex-ante assessment of different vaccination-based control schedules against the peste des petits ruminants virus in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious and widespread viral infection of small ruminants (goats and sheep), causing heavy economic losses in many developing countries. Therefore, its progressive control and global eradication by 2030 was defined as a priority by international organizations addressing animal health. The control phase of the global strategy is based on mass vaccination of small ruminant populations in endemic regions or countries. It is estimated that a 70% post-vaccination immunity rate (PVIR) is needed in a given epidemiological unit to prevent PPR virus spread. However, implementing mass vaccination is difficult and costly in smallholder farming systems with scattered livestock and limited facilities. Regarding this, controlling PPR is a special challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we focused on this region to assess the effect of several variables of PVIR in two contrasted smallholder farming systems.

METHODS

Using a seasonal matrix population model of PVIR, we estimated its decay in goats reared in sub-humid areas, and sheep reared in semi-arid areas, over a 4-year vaccination program. Assuming immunologically naive and PPR-free epidemiological unit, we assessed the ability of different vaccination scenarios to reach the 70% PVIR throughout the program. The tested scenarios differed in i) their overall schedule, ii) their delivery month and iii) their vaccination coverage.

RESULTS

In sheep reared in semi-arid areas, the vaccination month did affect the PVIR decay though it did not in goats in humid regions. In both cases, our study highlighted i) the importance of targeting the whole eligible population at least during the two first years of the vaccination program and ii) the importance of reaching a vaccination coverage as high as 80% of this population. This study confirmed the relevance of the vaccination schedules recommended by international organizations.

Understanding the legal trade of cattle and camels and the derived risk of Rift Valley Fever introduction into and transmission within Egypt

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne zoonosis, which may cause significant losses for the livestock sector and have serious public health implications. Egypt has been repeatedly affected by RVF epidemics, mainly associated to the importation of animals from sub-Saharan countries, where the disease is endemic. The objective of our study was the improvement of the surveillance and control strategies implemented in Egypt. In order to do that, first we evaluated the legal trade of live animals into and within Egypt. Then, we assessed the risk of Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) transmission within the country using a multi-criteria evaluation approach. Finally, we combined the animal trade and the risk of RVFV transmission data to identify those areas and periods in which the introduction of RVFV is more likely. Our results indicate that the main risk of RVFV introduction is posed by the continuous flow of large number of camels coming from Sudan. The risk of RVFV transmission by vectors is restricted to the areas surrounding the Nile river, and does not vary significantly throughout the year. Imported camels are taken to quarantines, where the risk of RVFV transmission by vectors is generally low. Then, they are taken to animal markets or slaughterhouses, many located in populated areas, where the risk of RVFV transmission to animals or humans is much higher. The measures currently implemented (quarantines, vaccination or testing) seem to have a limited effect in reducing the risk of RVFV introduction, and therefore other (risk-based) surveillance strategies are proposed.

Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006-2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data.