Geography of intergenerational mobility and child development

Diversity-aware Population Models: Quantifying Associations between Socio-Spatial Factors and Cognitive Development in the ABCD Cohort

Population-level analyses are inherently complex due to a myriad of latent confounding effects that underlie the interdisciplinary topics of research interest. Despite the mounting demand for generative population models, the limited generalizability to underrepresented groups hinders their widespread adoption in downstream applications. Interpretability and reliability are essential for clinicians and policymakers, while accuracy and precision are prioritized from an engineering standpoint. Thus, in domains such as population neuroscience, the challenge lies in determining a suitable approach to model population data effectively. Notably, the traditional strata-agnostic nature of existing methods in this field reveals a pertinent gap in quantitative techniques that directly capture major sources of population stratification. The emergence of population-scale cohorts, like the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study, provides unparalleled opportunities to explore and characterize neurobehavioral and sociodemographic relationships comprehensively. We propose diversity-aware population modeling, a framework poised to standardize systematic incorporation of diverse attributes, structured with respect to intrinsic population stratification to obtain holistic insights. Here, we leverage Bayesian multilevel regression and poststratification, to elucidate inter-individual differences in the relationships between socioeconomic status (SES) and cognitive development. We constructed 14 varying-intercepts and varying-slopes models to investigate 3 cognitive phenotypes and 5 sociodemographic variables (SDV), across 17 US states and 5 race subgroups. SDVs exhibited systemic socio-spatial effects that served as fundamental drivers of variation in cognitive outcomes. Low SES was disproportionately associated with cognitive development among Black and Hispanic children, while high SES was a robust predictor of cognitive development only among White and Asian children, consistent with the minorities' diminished returns (MDRs) theory. Notably, adversity-susceptible subgroups demonstrated an expressive association with fluid cognition compared to crystallized cognition. Poststratification proved effective in correcting group attribution biases, particularly in Pennsylvania, highlighting sampling discrepancies in US states with the highest percentage of marginalized participants in the ABCD Study©. Our collective analyses underscore the inextricable link between race and geographic location within the US. We emphasize the importance of diversity-aware population models that consider the intersectional composition of society to derive precise and interpretable insights across applicable domains.

Parental supervision positively impacts children's economic prospects two decades later: A prospective longitudinal study

IMPORTANCE

Upward income mobility is associated with better health outcomes and reduced stress. However, opportunities are unequally distributed, particularly so for those in rural communities and whose family have lower educational attainment.

OBJECTIVE

To test the impact of parental supervision on their children's income two decades later adjusting for parental economic and educational status.

DESIGN

This study is a longitudinal, representative cohort study. From 1993-2000, annual assessments of 1,420 children were completed until age 16, then followed up at age 35, 2018-2021, for further assessment. Models tested direct effects of parental supervision on child income, and indirect effects via child educational attainment.

SETTING

This study is an ongoing longitudinal population-based study of families in 11 predominately rural counties of the Southeastern U.S.

PARTICIPANTS

About 8% of the residents and sample are African American and fewer than 1% are Hispanic. American Indians make up 4% of the population in study but were oversampled to make up 25% of the sample. 49% of the 1,420 participants are female.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

1258 children and parents were assessed for sex, race/ethnicity, household income, parent educational attainment, family structure, child behavioral problems, and parental supervision. The children were followed up at age 35 to assess their household income and educational attainment.

RESULTS

Parental educational attainment, income, and family structure were strongly associated with their children's household income at age 35 (e.g., r = .392, p < .05). Parental supervision of the child was associated with increased household income for the child at age 35, adjusting for SES of the family of origin. Children of parents who did not engage in adequate supervision earned approximately $14,000 less/year (i.e., ~13% of the sample's median household income) than those who did. The association of parental supervision and child income at 35 was mediated by the child's educational attainment.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests adequate parental supervision during early adolescence is associated with children's economic prospects two decades later, in part by improving their educational prospects. This is particularly important in areas such as rural Southeast U.S.

Growing up poor but doing well: Contextual factors that predict academic success

This paper combines data on family, school, neighborhood, and city contexts with survey data from the Year 9 (n = 2,193) and Year 15 (n = 2, 236) Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to study children in America's inner-cities who are "beating the odds". We identify children as beating the odds if they were born to families of low socio-economic status but scored above the state average in reading, vocabulary and math at age 9, and were academically on-track by age 15. We also examine if the influences of these contexts are developmentally nuanced. We find that living in two parent households where harsh parenting methods are absent (family context) and living in neighborhoods where two parent families predominate (neighborhood context) are protective factors that help children beat the odds. We also find that city-wide contexts of higher levels of religiosity and fewer single parent households contribute to children beating the odds, however, these macro predictors are weaker when compared with family/neighborhood contexts. We find that these contextual effects are indeed developmentally nuanced. We conclude with a discussion of some interventions and policies that could help increase the number of at-risk children who beat the odds.

Geography of mobility and parenting behavior in low income families

BACKGROUND

The geographic location of birth has implications for low-income children's upward economic mobility, as Chetty, Hendren, Kline, and Saez (2014) found in an examination of millions of income tax records from each county in the US. Additional work indicates that low income children in higher economic mobility counties have higher language scores and fewer behavioral problems (Donnelly et al., 2017). However, the processes by which the geography of opportunity influences parenting are less well-understood.

OBJECTIVE

This study examines whether living in higher intergenerational mobility counties is associated with less harsh parenting, material hardship, household violence and substance use, and low child supervision - parenting behaviors that increase the risk for child maltreatment - for low-income families.

DATA

Data come from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a longitudinal birth cohort of low income families in 20 cities in the U.S (N ~, 2841; 76% lower (household income of $41,994 or less) and 24% higher-income) linked to county level data on intergenerational mobility from the Equality of Opportunity Project.

METHODS

We estimate OLS and Linear Probability regressions of the association between (1) exposure to county-level intergenerational mobility and (2) number of waves of exposure to county intergenerational mobility 1 standard deviation above the mean and maternal parenting behaviors.

RESULTS

A 1 standard deviation increase in county level intergenerational mobility is associated with decreases in harsh parenting, but not indicators of neglect. Longer exposure to high intergenerational mobility areas was associated with decreased maternal harsh parenting and risk for child maltreatment.

CONCLUSIONS

For low-income children, higher intergenerational mobility is associated with decreased risk of harsh parenting, particularly at younger ages, as is longer exposure to high intergenerational mobility areas. That lower-income families are less likely to live in economically mobile geographies may exacerbate inequalities among income groups.

The power of the future: Intergenerational income mobility and child maltreatment in the United States

BACKGROUND

Recent research has shown that the likelihood of children experiencing intergenerational, upward income mobility depends on the community in which they are raised. Whether parents consider their children's economic chances in their parenting decisions, however, is not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relationship between county-level income mobility-distinct from income inequality and poverty-and child maltreatment.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Administrative data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System: Child File for 2406 counties were merged with measures of intergenerational income mobility from Chetty et al. (2014a), including the probability that a child born in the bottom quintile of the national income distribution reaches the top quintile by age thirty.

METHODS

Weighted least squares analyses were used to empirically estimate the relationship between intergenerational income mobility and child maltreatment report rates. Maltreatment reports were also divided into subgroups by age and metropolitan status.

RESULTS

Counties where children have a greater chance of moving up the income ladder have lower child maltreatment report rates, independent from income inequality and poverty rates. This relationship is consistent across all child ages (0-17). The relationship between upward income mobility and substantiated child maltreatment is also negatively correlated among non-metropolitan counties.

CONCLUSIONS

Children experience a lower risk for maltreatment if they are more likely to move up the income ladder in adulthood. Macroeconomic factors and policies that reduce income inequality and enhance economic mobility are likely to prevent child maltreatment.

Moving up but not getting ahead: Family socioeconomic position in pregnancy, social mobility, and child cognitive development in the first seven years of life

Objectives

Understanding when and how socioeconomic position (SEP) influences cognitive development is key to reducing population inequalities in health and achievement. The objective of this study was to determine the unique association between prenatal family SEP and child cognitive development, and to determine whether marked postnatal social mobility was associated with improvements in child cognitive performance to age 7.

Methods

Data were from children enrolled in the US National Collaborative Perinatal Project (NCPP) (n = 28,761) during 1959-1965, a dataset large enough to observe marked mobility, which remains uncommon. Multivariable linear regression was used to examine the relationship between SEP (i.e., parental income, education, occupation) during gestation and cognitive performance at 8 months (Bayley Scales of Infant Development Mental Development Index) and at 7 years (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children).

Results

Holding demographic and perinatal factors constant, family SEP during gestation was not associated with cognitive performance at 8 months (B = -0.03, 95% CI: -0.07-0.01) but was positively associated with performance at 7 years even after accounting for SEP at 7 years (B = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.11-1.45). Children whose families experienced the most extreme upward mobility (from the lowest to highest income quartile) showed a 12 percentile increase in cognitive performance in the first 7 years of life. Those with the most extreme downward mobility (from the highest to lowest income quartile) still experienced an 8 percentile increase in cognitive performance in this interval.

Conclusions

The proportion of children in poverty today is similar to 1965 and intergenerational mobility has declined markedly. Prenatal SEP may contribute to inequalities in child cognitive performance that even extraordinary social mobility cannot erase. To optimize cognitive development across generations, current means-tested programs to support families with young children should be supplemented by universal approaches to ensure access to opportunity before young people become parents.

Neighborhood poverty, intergenerational mobility, and early developmental health in a population birth cohort

Living in a neighborhood with high levels of intergenerational mobility is associated with better childhood cognition and behavior as well as adult health. Nevertheless, it is unclear if such differences originate earlier, and thus if neighborhood intergenerational mobility is associated with health differences at birth. To address this question, we examined whether neighborhood intergenerational mobility, independent of neighborhood poverty, was associated with low birth weight (LBW) in a population-based cohort of singleton children born in California in 2017 (n = 426,873). Although increased neighborhood mobility was associated with a decreased likelihood of LBW, it was no longer associated with LBW (OR = 0.98, CI = 0.96, 1.00) after adjusting for neighborhood poverty. Meanwhile, neighborhood poverty was associated with LBW (OR = 1.04, CI = 1.02, 1.05) after accounting for mobility, with the odds of LBW 9.4% higher among children born where neighborhood poverty was in the 90th percentile compared with children born where neighborhood poverty was in the 10th percentile. Findings indicate that neighborhood poverty, but not intergenerational mobility, is a robust and independent correlate of increased LBW births, and thus early developmental health. These findings also suggest that the role of neighborhood intergenerational mobility in child and adult health outcomes may emerge later in development, independent of LBW, or that the role of neighborhood intergenerational mobility in LBW may be indirectly mediated through exposure to neighborhood poverty.

Contributions of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to Child Development

We describe the promise of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS) for developmental researchers. FFCWS is a birth cohort study of 4,898 children born in 1998-2000 in large US cities. This prospective national study collected data on children and parents at birth and during infancy (age 1), toddlerhood (age 3), early childhood (age 5), middle childhood (age 9), adolescence (age 15), and, in progress, young adulthood (age 22). Though FFCWS was created to understand the lives of unmarried parent families, its comprehensive data on parents, children, and contexts can be used to explore many other developmental questions. We identify six opportunities for developmentalists: (a) analyzing developmental trajectories, identifying the importance of the timing of exposures for later development, (c) documenting bidirectional influences on development, (d) understanding development in context, (e) identifying biological moderators and mechanisms, and ( f ) using an urban-born cohort that is large, diverse, and prospective.

Youth academic achievement, social context, and body mass index

This study assesses the relationship between academic achievement and body mass index for age (BMI) trajectories across childhood and adolescence, and investigates how this relationship is moderated by social context. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that academic achievement is not associated with improved BMI among youth from disadvantaged social contexts. We test for differences by race/ethnicity, and examine the role of county-level economic mobility in shaping these patterns. We use data from the longitudinal Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS), an ongoing birth cohort study representative of children born in large US cities in 2000, and measure BMI, academic achievement, and social context at Years 5, 9, and 15. Estimating multilevel random effects linear regression models of BMI from childhood to adolescence, we find that youth who were exposed to social advantage displayed a negative association between academic achievement and BMI. In contrast, youth exposed to social disadvantage displayed no association between academic achievement and BMI. This difference was observed regardless of race/ethnicity. County-level economic mobility modified the observed relationship, such that youth living in places with low levels of mobility displayed higher BMI associated with high academic performance. The results suggest that the health costs of academic achievement among disadvantaged youth are concentrated in areas with low institutional support for upward mobility. The findings demonstrate that the unequal benefits of educational attainment begin early in life, while living in places that promote upward mobility can help individuals realize the health benefits of their own educational attainment.

The social context of nearest neighbors shapes educational attainment regardless of class origin

We study the association between sociospatial neighborhood conditions throughout childhood and educational attainment in adulthood. Using unique longitudinal microdata for a medium-sized Swedish town, we geocode its population at the address level, 1939 to 1967, and link individuals to national registers, 1968 to 2015. Thus, we adopt a long-term perspective on the importance of nearby neighbors during a period when higher education expanded. Applying a method for estimating individual neighborhoods at the address level, we analyze the association between the geographically weighted social class of the nearest 6 to 100 childhood neighbors (ages 2 to 17), and the likelihood of obtaining a university degree by age 40, controlling for both family social class and school districts. We show that even when growing up in a town with relatively low economic inequality, the social class of the nearest same-age neighbors in childhood was associated with educational attainment, and that the associations were similar regardless of class origin. Growing up in low-class neighborhoods lowered educational attainment; growing up in high-class neighborhoods increased attainment. Social class and neighborhoods reinforced each other, implying that high-class children clustered with each other had much higher odds of obtaining a university degree than low-class children from low-class neighborhoods. Thus, even if all groups benefited from the great expansion of free higher education in Sweden (1960s to 1970s), the large inequalities between the classes and neighborhoods remained unchanged throughout the period. These findings show the importance of an advantageous background, both regarding the immediate family and the networks of nearby people of the same age.

Privacy, Ethics, and Data Access: A Case Study of the Fragile Families Challenge

Stewards of social data face a fundamental tension. On one hand, they want to make their data accessible to as many researchers as possible to facilitate new discoveries. At the same time, they want to restrict access to their data as much as possible to protect the people represented in the data. In this article, we provide a case study addressing this common tension in an uncommon setting: the Fragile Families Challenge, a scientific mass collaboration designed to yield insights that could improve the lives of disadvantaged children in the United States. We describe our process of threat modeling, threat mitigation, and third-party guidance. We also describe the ethical principles that formed the basis of our process. We are open about our process and the trade-offs we made in the hope that others can improve on what we have done.

Contributions of Research based on the PSID Child Development Supplement

The Child Development Supplement to the PSID (PSID-CDS) began in 1997 with a cohort of 2,394 households including 3,586 children. Since that auspicious start, three waves of the first cohort were collected - 1997, 2002-03, and 2007-08 - and a new cohort was interviewed in 2014. To date more than 400 journal articles, chapters, books, and dissertations that used the data have been collected in the PSID bibliography. This paper brings together founders and early adopters to summarize important contributions to the child development, time use, media, and health literatures. The purpose of this paper is not a detailed literature review but an overview of the literature and knowledge base to which PSID-CDS researchers have contributed. It points out unique methodological and measurement contributions, summarizes the motivation for research on parental investments in children, reviews findings regarding healthy child development, and examines the role of neighborhoods in children's lives.

Diverse socioeconomic processes influencing health and wellbeing across generations in deprived neighbourhoods in Malta

This study contributes to the geography of health by emphasising intergenerational differences in health determinants in a Mediterranean context. Using a grounded theory approach, it aims to explore the intergenerational processes between parents and children and their impact on determinants of health and wellbeing by focusing on the neighbourhood processes, including human, social and cultural capital in their neighbourhood. Through structured in-depth interviews with parents and children coming from two deprived neighbourhoods in Malta, it was shown that what may be considered valuable and beneficial for the adults' wellbeing may be detrimental for their children. In other cases, the neighbourhood processes that are being experienced negatively by adults seem to be beneficial for the health and wellbeing of young people. Thus the neighbourhood does not influence the inhabitants of different age groups in a homogenous and consistent manner. Indeed, the experiences of adults and children, even though they belong to the same family and neighbourhood, may differ from each other. It also emerged that it is not only the parents who can influence determinants of a young person's wellbeing; children and adolescents are able to negotiate and contradict their parents' wishes and decisions in order to enjoy conditions that they find beneficial. This study therefore demonstrates how the processes related to the social determinants of health are not static but highly dynamic, even across generations.