Reply to Padmanabhan and Dixit: Hepatitis C virus entry inhibitors for optimally boosting direct-acting antiviral-based treatments

Interferon at the cellular, individual, and population level in hepatitis C virus infection: Its role in the interferon-free treatment era

The advent of powerful direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) has revolutionized the treatment of hepatitis C. DAAs cure nearly all patients with short duration, oral treatments. Significant efforts are now underway to optimize DAA-based treatments. We discuss the potential role of interferon in this optimization. Clinical studies present compelling evidence that DAAs perform better in treatment-naive individuals than in individuals who previously failed treatment with interferon, a surprising correlation because interferon and DAAs are thought to act independently. Recent mathematical models explore a mechanistic hypothesis underlying this correlation. The hypothesis invokes the action of interferon at the cellular, individual, and population levels. Strong interferon responses prevent the productive infection of cells, reduce viral replication, and impede the development of resistance to DAAs in infected individuals and improve cure rates elicited by DAAs in treated populations. The models develop descriptions of these processes, integrate them into a comprehensive framework, and capture clinical data quantitatively, providing a successful test of the hypothesis. Individuals with strong endogenous interferon responses thus present a promising subpopulation for reducing DAA treatment durations. This review discusses the conceptual advances made by the models, highlights the new insights they unravel, and examines their applicability to optimize DAA-based treatments.

Mutational pathway maps and founder effects define the within-host spectrum of hepatitis C virus mutants resistant to drugs

Knowledge of the within-host frequencies of resistance-associated amino acid variants (RAVs) is important to the identification of optimal drug combinations for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Multiple RAVs may exist in infected individuals, often below detection limits, at any resistance locus, defining the diversity of accessible resistance pathways. We developed a multiscale mathematical model to estimate the pre-treatment frequencies of the entire spectrum of mutants at chosen loci. Using a codon-level description of amino acids, we performed stochastic simulations of intracellular dynamics with every possible nucleotide variant as the infecting strain and estimated the relative infectivity of each variant and the resulting distribution of variants produced. We employed these quantities in a deterministic multi-strain model of extracellular dynamics and estimated mutant frequencies. Our predictions captured database frequencies of the RAV R155K, resistant to NS3/4A protease inhibitors, presenting a successful test of our formalism. We found that mutational pathway maps, interconnecting all viable mutants, and strong founder effects determined the mutant spectrum. The spectra were vastly different for HCV genotypes 1a and 1b, underlying their differential responses to drugs. Using a fitness landscape determined recently, we estimated that 13 amino acid variants, encoded by 44 codons, exist at the residue 93 of the NS5A protein, illustrating the massive diversity of accessible resistance pathways at specific loci. Accounting for this diversity, which our model enables, would help optimize drug combinations. Our model may be applied to describe the within-host evolution of other flaviviruses and inform vaccine design strategies.

Building a mechanistic mathematical model of hepatitis C virus entry

The mechanism by which hepatitis C virus (HCV) gains entry into cells is a complex one, involving a broad range of host proteins. Entry is a critical phase of the viral lifecycle, and a potential target for therapeutic or vaccine-mediated intervention. However, the mechanics of HCV entry remain poorly understood. Here we describe a novel computational model of viral entry, encompassing the relationship between HCV and the key host receptors CD81 and SR-B1. We conduct experiments to thoroughly quantify the influence of an increase or decrease in receptor availability upon the extent of viral entry. We use these data to build and parameterise a mathematical model, which we then validate by further experiments. Our results are consistent with sequential HCV-receptor interactions, whereby initial interaction between the HCV E2 glycoprotein and SR-B1 facilitates the accumulation CD81 receptors, leading to viral entry. However, we also demonstrate that a small minority of viruses can achieve entry in the absence of SR-B1. Our model estimates the impact of the different obstacles that viruses must surmount to achieve entry; among virus particles attaching to the cell surface, around one third of viruses accumulate sufficient CD81 receptors, of which 4-8% then complete the subsequent steps to achieve productive infection. Furthermore, we make estimates of receptor stoichiometry; in excess of 10 receptors are likely to be required to achieve viral entry. Our model provides a tool to investigate the entry characteristics of HCV variants and outlines a framework for future quantitative studies of the multi-receptor dynamics of HCV entry.

Modelling how responsiveness to interferon improves interferon-free treatment of hepatitis C virus infection

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for hepatitis C treatment tend to fare better in individuals who are also likely to respond well to interferon-alpha (IFN), a surprising correlation given that DAAs target specific viral proteins whereas IFN triggers a generic antiviral immune response. Here, we posit a causal relationship between IFN-responsiveness and DAA treatment outcome. IFN-responsiveness restricts viral replication, which would prevent the growth of viral variants resistant to DAAs and improve treatment outcome. To test this hypothesis, we developed a multiscale mathematical model integrating IFN-responsiveness at the cellular level, viral kinetics and evolution leading to drug resistance at the individual level, and treatment outcome at the population level. Model predictions quantitatively captured data from over 50 clinical trials demonstrating poorer response to DAAs in previous non-responders to IFN than treatment-naïve individuals, presenting strong evidence supporting the hypothesis. Model predictions additionally described several unexplained clinical observations, viz., the percentages of infected individuals who 1) spontaneously clear HCV, 2) get chronically infected but respond to IFN-based therapy, and 3) fail IFN-based therapy but respond to DAA-based therapy, resulting in a comprehensive understanding of HCV infection and treatment. An implication of the causal relationship is that failure of DAA-based treatments may be averted by adding IFN, a strategy of potential use in settings with limited access to DAAs. A second, wider implication is that individuals with greater IFN-responsiveness would require shorter DAA-based treatment durations, presenting a basis and a promising population for response-guided therapy.

A PDE multiscale model of hepatitis C virus infection can be transformed to a system of ODEs

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) by targeting its intracellular viral replication. DAAs are effective and deliver high clinical performance against HCV infection, but optimization of the DAA treatment regimen is ongoing. Different classes of DAAs are currently under development, and HCV treatments that combine two or three DAAs with different action mechanisms are being improved. To accurately quantify the antiviral effect of these DAA treatments and optimize multi-drug combinations, we must describe the intracellular viral replication processes corresponding to the action mechanisms by multiscale mathematical models. Previous multiscale models of HCV treatment have been formulated by partial differential equations (PDEs). However, estimating the parameters from clinical datasets requires comprehensive numerical PDE computations that are time consuming and often converge poorly. Here, we propose a user-friendly approach that transforms a standard PDE multiscale model of HCV infection (Guedj J et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2013; 110(10):3991-6) to mathematically identical ordinary differential equations (ODEs) without any assumptions. We also confirm consistency between the numerical solutions of our transformed ODE model and the original PDE model. This relationship between a detailed structured model and a simple model is called ``model aggregation problem'' and a fundamental important in theoretical biology. In particular, as the parameters of ODEs can be estimated by already established methods, our transformed ODE model and its modified version avoid the time-consuming computations and are broadly available for further data analysis.

[Revealing the characteristics of antiviral agents]

Rapid development of novel anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) agents in recent years has greatly improved treatment outcomes. However, such rapid progress in anti-HCV treatment has not allowed us to fully argue the different characteristics of each anti-HCV agent, optimal multidrug combinations, and the selection of treatment enabling to efficiently eliminate drug resistant viruses. We here quantified the intrinsic antiviral effect of 15 anti-HCV agents either clinically available or under developmental phase using a cell culture system, and identified the parameters that represent the antiviral profile of drugs through mathematical analysis. A computer simulation that calculated the antiviral activity and the frequency of mutation rate under dual- and triple-multidrug treatment presented the argument for the advantage of multidrug treatments. In this review, we summarize the novel approaches to evaluate intrinsic antiviral efficacy of drugs by combining the virological and mathematical analyses.