Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities

Assessing the response of marine fish communities to climate change and fishing

Globally, marine fish communities are being altered by climate change and human disturbances. We examined data on global marine fish communities to assess changes in community-weighted mean temperature affinity (i.e., mean temperatures within geographic ranges), maximum length, and trophic levels, which, respectively, represent the physiological, morphological, and trophic characteristics of marine fish communities. Then, we explored the influence of climate change and fishing on these characteristics because of their long-term role in shaping fish communities, especially their interactive effects. We employed spatial linear mixed models to investigate their impacts on community-weighted mean trait values and on abundance of different fish lengths and trophic groups. Globally, we observed an initial increasing trend in the temperature affinity of marine fish communities, whereas the weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities showed a declining trend. However, these shift trends were not significant, likely due to the large variation in midlatitude communities. Fishing pressure increased fish communities' temperature affinity in regions experiencing climate warming. Furthermore, climate warming was associated with an increase in weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities. Low climate baseline temperature appeared to mitigate the effect of climate warming on temperature affinity and trophic levels. The effect of climate warming on the relative abundance of different trophic classes and size classes both exhibited a nonlinear pattern. The small and relatively large fish species may benefit from climate warming, whereas the medium and largest size groups may be disadvantaged. Our results highlight the urgency of establishing stepping-stone marine protected areas to facilitate the migration of fishes to habitats in a warming ocean. Moreover, reducing human disturbance is crucial to mitigate rapid tropicalization, particularly in vulnerable temperate regions.

Foraging habits of Northwest Atlantic hooded seals over the past 30 years: Future habitat suitability under global warming

The Arctic is a global warming 'hot-spot' that is experiencing rapid increases in air and ocean temperatures and concomitant decreases in sea ice cover. These environmental changes are having major consequences on Arctic ecosystems. All Arctic endemic marine mammals are highly dependent on ice-associated ecosystems for at least part of their life cycle and thus are sensitive to the changes occurring in their habitats. Understanding the biological consequences of changes in these environments is essential for ecosystem management and conservation. However, our ability to study climate change impacts on Arctic marine mammals is generally limited by the lack of sufficiently long data time series. In this study, we took advantage of a unique dataset on hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) movements (and serum samples) that spans more than 30 years in the Northwest Atlantic to (i) investigate foraging (distribution and habitat use) and dietary (trophic level of prey and location) habits over the last three decades and (ii) predict future locations of suitable habitat given a projected global warming scenario. We found that, despite a change in isotopic signatures that might suggest prey changes over the 30-year period, hooded seals from the Northwest Atlantic appeared to target similar oceanographic characteristics throughout the study period. However, over decades, they have moved northward to find food. Somewhat surprisingly, foraging habits differed between seals breeding in the Gulf of St Lawrence vs those breeding at the "Front" (off Newfoundland). Seals from the Gulf favoured colder waters while Front seals favoured warmer waters. We predict that foraging habitats for hooded seals will continue to shift northwards and that Front seals are likely to have the greatest resilience. This study shows how hooded seals are responding to rapid environmental change and provides an indication of future trends for the species-information essential for effective ecosystem management and conservation.

Environmental drivers of Arctic communities based on metabarcoding of marine sediment eDNA

Our ability to assess biodiversity at relevant spatial and temporal scales for informing management is of increasing importance given this is foundational to identify and mitigate the impacts of global change. Collecting baseline information and tracking ecological changes are particularly important for areas experiencing rapid changes and representing data gaps such as Arctic marine ecosystems. Environmental DNA has the potential to provide such data. We extracted environmental DNA from 90 surface sediment samples to assess eukaryote diversity around Greenland and Svalbard using two separate primer pairs amplifying different sections of the 18S rRNA gene. We detected 27 different phyla and 99 different orders and found that temperature and the change in temperature explained the most variation in the community in a single linear model, while latitude, sea ice cover and change in temperature explained the most variation in the community when assessed by individual non-linear models. We identified potential indicator taxa for Arctic climate change, including a terebellid annelid worm. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that environmental DNA offers a feasible method to assess biodiversity and identifies warming as a key driver of differences in biodiversity across these remote ecosystems.

FISHGLOB_data: an integrated dataset of fish biodiversity sampled with scientific bottom-trawl surveys

Scientific bottom-trawl surveys are ecological observation programs conducted along continental shelves and slopes of seas and oceans that sample marine communities associated with the seafloor. These surveys report taxa occurrence, abundance and/or weight in space and time, and contribute to fisheries management as well as population and biodiversity research. Bottom-trawl surveys are conducted all over the world and represent a unique opportunity to understand ocean biogeography, macroecology, and global change. However, combining these data together for cross-ecosystem analyses remains challenging. Here, we present an integrated dataset of 29 publicly available bottom-trawl surveys conducted in national waters of 18 countries that are standardized and pre-processed, covering a total of 2,170 sampled fish taxa and 216,548 hauls collected from 1963 to 2021. We describe the processing steps to create the dataset, flags, and standardization methods that we developed to assist users in conducting spatio-temporal analyses with stable regional survey footprints. The aim of this dataset is to support research, marine conservation, and management in the context of global change.

A multiyear time series (2004-2012) of bacterial and archaeal community dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean

Climate change is profoundly impacting the Arctic, leading to a loss of multiyear sea ice and a warmer, fresher upper Arctic Ocean. The response of microbial communities to these climate-mediated changes is largely unknown. Here, we document the interannual variation in bacterial and archaeal communities across a 9-year time series of the Canada Basin that includes two historic sea ice minima (2007 and 2012). We report an overall loss of bacterial and archaeal community richness and significant shifts in community composition. The magnitude and period of most rapid change differed between the stratified water layers. The most pronounced changes in the upper water layers (surface mixed layer and upper Arctic water) occurred earlier in the time series, while changes in the lower layer (Pacific-origin water) occurred later. Shifts in taxonomic composition across time were subtle, but a decrease in Bacteroidota taxa and increase in Thaumarchaeota and Euryarchaeota taxa were the clearest signatures of change. This time series provides a rare glimpse into the potential influence of climate change on Arctic microbial communities; extension to the present day should contribute to deeper insights into the trajectory of Arctic marine ecosystems in response to warming and freshening.

New deep learning-based methods for visualizing ecosystem properties using environmental DNA metabarcoding data

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding provides an efficient approach for documenting biodiversity patterns in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The complexity of these data prevents current methods from extracting and analyzing all the relevant ecological information they contain, and new methods may provide better dimensionality reduction and clustering. Here we present two new deep learning-based methods that combine different types of neural networks (NNs) to ordinate eDNA samples and visualize ecosystem properties in a two-dimensional space: the first is based on variational autoencoders and the second on deep metric learning. The strength of our new methods lies in the combination of two inputs: the number of sequences found for each molecular operational taxonomic unit (MOTU) detected and their corresponding nucleotide sequence. Using three different datasets, we show that our methods accurately represent several biodiversity indicators in a two-dimensional latent space: MOTU richness per sample, sequence α-diversity per sample, Jaccard's and sequence β-diversity between samples. We show that our nonlinear methods are better at extracting features from eDNA datasets while avoiding the major biases associated with eDNA. Our methods outperform traditional dimension reduction methods such as Principal Component Analysis, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbour Embedding, Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for dimension reduction. Our results suggest that NNs provide a more efficient way of extracting structure from eDNA metabarcoding data, thereby improving their ecological interpretation and thus biodiversity monitoring.

Conversion of steppe to cropland increases spatial heterogeneity of soil functional genes

The microbiome function responses to land use change are important for the long-term prediction and management of soil ecological functions under human influence. However, it has remains uncertain how the biogeographic patterns of soil functional composition change when transitioning from natural steppe soils (NS) to agricultural soils (AS). We collected soil samples from adjacent pairs of AS and NS across 900 km of Mollisol areas in northeast China, and the soil functional composition was characterized using shotgun sequencing. AS had higher functional alpha-diversity indices with respect to KO trait richness and a higher Shannon index than NS. The distance-decay slopes of functional gene composition were steeper in AS than in NS along both spatial and environmental gradients. Land-use conversion from steppe to farmland diversified functional gene profiles both locally and spatially; it increased the abundances of functional genes related to labile carbon, but decreased those related to recalcitrant substrate mobilization (e.g., lignin), P cycling, and S cycling. The composition of gene functional traits was strongly driven by stochastic processes, while the degree of stochasticity was higher in NS than in AS, as revealed by the neutral community model and normalized stochasticity ratio analysis. Alpha-diversity of core functional genes was strongly related to multi-nutrient cycling in AS, suggesting a key relationship to soil fertility. The results of this study challenge the paradigm that the conversion of natural to agricultural habitat will homogenize soil properties and biology while reducing local and regional gene functional diversity.

Holocene deglaciation drove rapid genetic diversification of Atlantic walrus

Rapid global warming is severely impacting Arctic ecosystems and is predicted to transform the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of Arctic species, though these linkages are poorly understood. We address this gap in knowledge using palaeogenomics to examine how earlier periods of global warming influenced the genetic diversity of Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus), a species closely associated with sea ice and shallow-water habitats. We analysed 82 ancient and historical Atlantic walrus mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes), including now-extinct populations in Iceland and the Canadian Maritimes, to reconstruct the Atlantic walrus' response to Arctic deglaciation. Our results demonstrate that the phylogeography and genetic diversity of Atlantic walrus populations was initially shaped by the last glacial maximum (LGM), surviving in distinct glacial refugia, and subsequently expanding rapidly in multiple migration waves during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. The timing of diversification and establishment of distinct populations corresponds closely with the chronology of the glacial retreat, pointing to a strong link between walrus phylogeography and sea ice. Our results indicate that accelerated ice loss in the modern Arctic may trigger further dispersal events, likely increasing the connectivity of northern stocks while isolating more southerly stocks putatively caught in small pockets of suitable habitat.

Predatory walls may impair climate warming-associated population expansion

Climate change has a profound impact on species distribution and abundance globally, as well as local diversity, which affects ecosystem functioning. In particular, changes in population distribution and abundance may lead to changes in trophic interactions. Although species can often shift their spatial distribution when suitable habitats are available, it has been suggested that predator presence can be a constraint on climate-related distribution shifts. We test this using two well-studied and data-rich marine environments. Focusing on a pair of sympatric fishes, Atlantic haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus and cod Gadus morhua, we study the effect of the presence and abundance of the latter on the former distribution. We found that the distribution of cod and increased abundance may limit the expansion of haddock to new areas and could consequently buffer ecosystem changes due to climate change. Though marine species may track the rate and direction of climate shifts, our results demonstrate that the presence of predators may limit their expansion to thermally suitable habitats. By integrating climatic and ecological data at scales that can resolve predator-prey relationships, this analysis demonstrates the usefulness of considering trophic interactions to gain a more comprehensive understanding and to mitigate the effects of climate change on species distributions.

Combined threats of climate change and contaminant exposure through the lens of bioenergetics

Organisms face energetic challenges of climate change in combination with suites of natural and anthropogenic stressors. In particular, chemical contaminant exposure has neurotoxic, endocrine-disrupting, and behavioral effects which may additively or interactively combine with challenges associated with climate change. We used a literature review across animal taxa and contaminant classes, but focused on Arctic endotherms and contaminants important in Arctic ecosystems, to demonstrate potential for interactive effects across five bioenergetic domains: (1) energy supply, (2) energy demand, (3) energy storage, (4) energy allocation tradeoffs, and (5) energy management strategies; and involving four climate change-sensitive environmental stressors: changes in resource availability, temperature, predation risk, and parasitism. Identified examples included relatively equal numbers of synergistic and antagonistic interactions. Synergies are often suggested to be particularly problematic, since they magnify biological effects. However, we emphasize that antagonistic effects on bioenergetic traits can be equally problematic, since they can reflect dampening of beneficial responses and result in negative synergistic effects on fitness. Our review also highlights that empirical demonstrations remain limited, especially in endotherms. Elucidating the nature of climate change-by-contaminant interactive effects on bioenergetic traits will build toward determining overall outcomes for energy balance and fitness. Progressing to determine critical species, life stages, and target areas in which transformative effects arise will aid in forecasting broad-scale bioenergetic outcomes under global change scenarios.

Over 20% of marine fishes shifting in the North and Barents Seas, but not in the Norwegian Sea

Climate warming generally induces poleward range expansions and equatorward range contractions of species' environmental niches on a global scale. Here, we examined the direction and magnitude of species biomass centroid geographic shifts in relation to temperature and depth for 83 fish species in 9,522 standardised research trawls from the North Sea (1998-2020) to the Norwegian (2000-2020) and Barents Sea (2004-2020). We detected an overall significant northward shift of the marine fish community biomass in the North Sea, and individual species northward shifts in the Barents and North Seas, in 20% and 25% of the species' biomass centroids in each respective region. We did not detect overall community shifts in the Norwegian Sea, where two species (8%) shifted in each direction (northwards and southwards). Among 9 biological traits, species biogeographic assignation, preferred temperature, age at maturity and maximum depth were significant explanatory variables for species latitudinal shifts in some of the study areas, and Arctic species shifted significantly faster than boreal species in the Barents Sea. Overall, our results suggest a strong influence of other factors, such as biological interactions, in determining several species' recent geographic shifts.

Shifts in the composition and distribution of Pacific Arctic larval fish assemblages in response to rapid ecosystem change

The Pacific Arctic marine ecosystem has undergone rapid changes in recent years due to ocean warming, sea ice loss, and increased northward transport of Pacific-origin waters into the Arctic. These climate-mediated changes have been linked to range shifts of juvenile and adult subarctic (boreal) and Arctic fish populations, though it is unclear whether distributional changes are also occurring during the early life stages. We analyzed larval fish abundance and distribution data sampled in late summer from 2010 to 2019 in two interconnected Pacific Arctic ecosystems: the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, to determine whether recent warming and loss of sea ice has restricted habitat for Arctic species and altered larval fish assemblage composition from Arctic- to boreal-associated taxa. Multivariate analyses revealed the presence of three distinct multi-species assemblages across all years: (1) a boreal assemblage dominated by yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera), capelin (Mallotus catervarius), and walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus); (2) an Arctic assemblage composed of Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and other common Arctic species; and (3) a mixed assemblage composed of the dominant species from the other two assemblages. We found that the wind- and current-driven northward advection of warmer, subarctic waters and the unprecedented low-ice conditions observed in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas beginning in 2017 and persisting into 2018 and 2019 have precipitated community-wide shifts, with the boreal larval fish assemblage expanding northward and offshore and the Arctic assemblage retreating poleward. We conclude that Arctic warming is most significantly driving changes in abundance at the leading and trailing edges of the Chukchi Sea larval fish community as boreal species increase in abundance and Arctic species decline. Our analyses document how quickly larval fish assemblages respond to environmental change and reveal that the impacts of Arctic borealization on fish community composition spans multiple life stages over large spatial scales.

Ecological impacts of climate change on Arctic marine megafauna

Global warming affects the Arctic more than any other region. Mass media constantly relay apocalyptic visions of climate change threatening Arctic wildlife, especially emblematic megafauna such as polar bears, whales, and seabirds. Yet, we are just beginning to understand such ecological impacts on marine megafauna at the scale of the Arctic. This knowledge is geographically and taxonomically biased, with striking deficiencies in the Russian Arctic and strong focus on exploited species such as cod. Beyond a synthesis of scientific advances in the past 5 years, we provide ten key questions to be addressed by future work and outline the requested methodology. This framework builds upon long-term Arctic monitoring inclusive of local communities whilst capitalising on high-tech and big data approaches.

Pan-Arctic marine biodiversity and species co-occurrence patterns under recent climate

The Arctic region is experiencing drastic climatic changes bringing about potential ecological shifts. Here, we explored marine biodiversity and potential species associations across eight Arctic marine areas between 2000 and 2019. We compiled species occurrences for a subset of 69 marine taxa (i.e., 26 apex predators and 43 mesopredators) and environmental factors to predict taxon-specific distributions using a multi-model ensemble approach. Arctic-wide temporal trends of species richness increased in the last 20 years and highlighted potential emerging areas of species accrual due to climate-driven species redistribution. Further, regional species associations were dominated by positive co-occurrences among species pairs with high frequencies in the Pacific and Atlantic Arctic areas. Comparative analyses of species richness, community composition, and co-occurrence between high and low summer sea ice concentrations revealed contrasting impacts of and detected areas vulnerable to sea ice changes. In particular, low (high) summer sea ice generally resulted in species gains (loss) in the inflow and loss (gains) in the outflow shelves, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition and therefore potential species associations. Overall, the recent changes in biodiversity and species co-occurrences in the Arctic were driven by pervasive poleward range shifts, especially for wide-ranging apex predators. Our findings highlight the varying regional impacts of warming and sea ice loss on Arctic marine communities and provide important insights into the vulnerability of Arctic marine areas to climate change.

Environmental variables and machine learning models to predict cetacean abundance in the Central-eastern Mediterranean Sea

Although the Mediterranean Sea is a crucial hotspot in marine biodiversity, it has been threatened by numerous anthropogenic pressures. As flagship species, Cetaceans are exposed to those anthropogenic impacts and global changes. Assessing their conservation status becomes strategic to set effective management plans. The aim of this paper is to understand the habitat requirements of cetaceans, exploiting the advantages of a machine-learning framework. To this end, 28 physical and biogeochemical variables were identified as environmental predictors related to the abundance of three odontocete species in the Northern Ionian Sea (Central-eastern Mediterranean Sea). In fact, habitat models were built using sighting data collected for striped dolphins Stenella coeruleoalba, common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus, and Risso's dolphins Grampus griseus between July 2009 and October 2021. Random Forest was a suitable machine learning algorithm for the cetacean abundance estimation. Nitrate, phytoplankton carbon biomass, temperature, and salinity were the most common influential predictors, followed by latitude, 3D-chlorophyll and density. The habitat models proposed here were validated using sighting data acquired during 2022 in the study area, confirming the good performance of the strategy. This study provides valuable information to support management decisions and conservation measures in the EU marine spatial planning context.

Metabarcoding reveals high diversity of benthic foraminifera linked to water masses circulation at coastal Svalbard

Arctic marine biodiversity is undergoing rapid changes due to global warming and modifications of oceanic water masses circulation. These changes have been demonstrated in the case of mega- and macrofauna, but much less is known about their impact on the biodiversity of smaller size organisms, such as foraminifera that represent a main component of meiofauna in the Arctic. Several studies analyzed the distribution and diversity of Arctic foraminifera. However, all these studies are based exclusively on the morphological identification of specimens sorted from sediment samples. Here, we present the first assessment of Arctic foraminifera diversity based on metabarcoding of sediment DNA samples collected in fjords and open sea areas in the Svalbard Archipelago. We obtained a total of 5,968,786 reads that represented 1384 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs). More than half of the ASVs (51.7%) could not be assigned to any group in the reference database suggesting a high genetic novelty of Svalbard foraminifera. The sieved and unsieved samples resolved comparable communities, sharing 1023 ASVs, comprising over 97% of reads. Our analyses show that the foraminiferal assemblage differs between the localities, with communities distinctly separated between fjord and open sea stations. Each locality was characterized by a specific assemblage, with only a small overlap in the case of open sea areas. Our study demonstrates a clear pattern of the influence of water masses on the structure of foraminiferal communities. The stations situated on the western coast of Svalbard that are strongly influenced by warm and salty Atlantic water (AW) are characterized by much higher diversity than stations in the northern and eastern part, where the impact of AW is less pronounced. This high diversity and specificity of Svalbard foraminifera associated with water mass distribution indicate that the foraminiferal metabarcoding data can be very useful for inferring present and past environmental conditions in the Arctic.

Life History of the Arctic Squid Gonatus fabricii (Cephalopoda: Oegopsida) Reconstructed by Analysis of Individual Ontogenetic Stable Isotopic Trajectories

Cephalopods are important in Arctic marine ecosystems as predators and prey, but knowledge of their life cycles is poor. Consequently, they are under-represented in the Arctic ecosystems assessment models. One important parameter is the change in ecological role (habitat and diet) associated with individual ontogenies. Here, the life history of Gonatus fabricii, the most abundant Arctic cephalopod, is reconstructed by the analysis of individual ontogenetic trajectories of stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) in archival hard body structures. This approach allows the prediction of the exact mantle length (ML) and mass when the species changes its ecological role. Our results show that the life history of G. fabricii is divided into four stages, each having a distinct ecology: (1) epipelagic squid (ML < 20 mm), preying mostly on copepods; (2) epi- and occasionally mesopelagic squid (ML 20−50 mm), preying on larger crustaceans, fish, and cephalopods; (3) meso- and bathypelagic squid (ML > 50 mm), preying mainly on fish and cephalopods; and (4) non-feeding bathypelagic gelatinous females (ML > 200 mm). Existing Arctic ecosystem models do not reflect the different ecological roles of G. fabricii correctly, and the novel data provided here are a necessary baseline for Arctic ecosystem modelling and forecasting.

Faster ocean warming threatens richest areas of marine biodiversity

The vulnerability of marine biodiversity to accelerated rates of climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these to 21st century projections, we show that future rates of ocean warming will disproportionately affect the most speciose marine communities, potentially threatening biodiversity in more than 70% of current-day global hotspots of marine species richness. The persistence of these richest areas of marine biodiversity will require many species to move well beyond the biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at rates of redistribution not previously seen. Our approach for quantifying exposure of biodiversity to past and future rates of oceanic warming provides new context and scalable information for deriving and strengthening conservation actions to safeguard marine biodiversity under climate change.

Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species, but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a 28-year-long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227 individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer versus 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current summer habitats will decline (mean loss: -25%), while some expansion into new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains versus losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats.

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic

The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record-breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community-level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short-term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co-occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long-term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial-temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change.

Deep demersal fish communities respond rapidly to warming in a frontal region between Arctic and Atlantic waters

The assessment of climate impact on marine communities dwelling deeper than the well-studied shelf seas has been hampered by the lack of long-term data. For a long time, the prevailing expectation has been that thermal stability in deep ocean layers will delay ecosystem responses to warming. Few observational studies have challenged this view and indicated that deep organisms can respond exceptionally fast to physical change at the sea surface. To address the depth-specific impact of climate change, we investigated spatio-temporal changes in fish community structure along a bathymetry gradient of 150-1500 m between 1998 and 2016 in East Greenland. Here, the Arctic East Greenland Current and the Atlantic Irminger Current meet and mix, representing a sub-Arctic transition zone. We found the strongest signals of community reorganizations at depths between 350 and 1000 m and only weak responses in the shallowest and deepest regions. Changes were in synchrony with atmospheric warming, loss in sea ice and variability in physical sea surface conditions both within our study region and North of the Denmark Strait. These results suggest that interannual variability and long-term climate trends of the larger ecoregion can rapidly affect fish communities down to 1000-m depth through atmospheric ocean coupling and food web interactions.

Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social-ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change.

Trait-based approaches to global change ecology: moving from description to prediction

Trait-based approaches are increasingly recognized as a tool for understanding ecosystem re-assembly and function under intensifying global change. Here we synthesize trait-based research globally (n = 865 studies) to examine the contexts in which traits may be used for global change prediction. We find that exponential growth in the field over the last decade remains dominated by descriptive studies of terrestrial plant morphology, highlighting significant opportunities to expand trait-based thinking across systems and taxa. Very few studies (less than 3%) focus on predicting ecological effects of global change, mostly in the past 5 years and via singular traits that mediate abiotic limits on species distribution. Beyond organism size (the most examined trait), we identify over 2500 other morphological, physiological, behavioural and life-history traits known to mediate environmental filters of species' range and abundance as candidates for future predictive global change work. Though uncommon, spatially explicit process models—which mechanistically link traits to changes in organism distributions and abundance—are among the most promising frameworks for holistic global change prediction at scales relevant for conservation decision-making. Further progress towards trait-based forecasting requires addressing persistent barriers including (1) matching scales of multivariate trait and environment data to focal processes disrupted by global change, and (2) propagating variation in trait and environmental parameters throughout process model functions using simulation.

Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers of Long-Term Changes of Mercury and Feeding Ecology in Arctic Beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) Populations

We assessed long-term changes in the feeding ecology and mercury (Hg) accumulation in Eastern High Arctic-Baffin Bay beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) using total Hg and stable isotope (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) assays in teeth samples from historical (1854-1905) and modern (1985-2000) populations. Mean δ¹³C values in teeth declined significantly over time, from -13.01 ± 0.55‰ historically to -14.41 ± 0.28‰ in 2000, while no consistent pattern was evident for δ¹⁵N due to high individual variability within each period. The temporal shift in isotopic niche is consistent with beluga feeding ecology changing in recent decades to a more pelagic and less isotopically diverse diet or an ecosystem wide change in isotope profiles. Mercury concentrations in modern beluga teeth were 3-5 times higher on average than those in historical beluga. These results are similar to the long-term trends of Hg and feeding ecology reported in other beluga populations and in other Arctic marine predators. Similar feeding ecology shifts across regions and species indicate a consistent increased pelagic diet response to climate change as the Arctic Ocean progressively warmed and lost sea ice. Previously, significant temporal Hg increase in beluga and other Arctic animals was attributed solely to direct inputs of anthropogenic Hg from long-range sources. Recent advances in understanding the Arctic marine Hg cycle suggest an additional, complementary possibility─increased inputs of terrestrial Hg of mixed anthropogenic-natural origin, mobilized from permafrost and other Arctic soils by climate warming. At present, it is not possible to assign relative importance to the two processes in explaining the rise of Hg concentrations in modern Arctic marine predators.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Modelling the biogeographic boundary shift of Calanus finmarchicus reveals drivers of Arctic Atlantification by subarctic zooplankton

Biological communities in the Arctic are changing through the climate-driven encroachment of subarctic species. This "Atlantification" extends to keystone Calanoid copepods, as the small-bodied Calanus finmarchicus increases in abundance in areas where it overlaps with larger Arctic congeners. The environmental factors that are facilitating this shift, whether related to optimal conditions in temperature or seasonality, remain unclear. Assessing these drivers at an Arctic-wide scale is necessary to predict future ecosystem change and impacts. Here we have compiled range-wide occurrences of C. finmarchicus and a suite of seasonal biophysical climatologies to build a boreo-Arctic ecological niche model. The data set was divided into two eras, 1955-1984 and 1985-2017, and an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the seasonal distribution of the abiotic niche of C. finmarchicus in both eras. Comparing outputs between eras reveals an increase in habitat suitability at the Arctic range edge. Large and significant increases in suitability are predicted in the regions of the Greenland, Labrador, and Southern Barents Seas that have experienced reduced sea-ice cover. With the exception of the Barents Sea, these areas also show a seasonal shift in the timing of peak habitat suitability toward an earlier season. Our findings suggest that the Atlantification of Arctic zooplankton communities is accompanied by climate-driven phenology changes. Although seasonality is a critical constraint to the establishment of C. finmarchicus at Arctic latitudes, earlier sea-ice retreat and associated productivity is making these environments increasingly favorable for this subarctic species.

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska's Beaufort Sea, 2001-2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark-recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Biogeography of acoustic biodiversity of NW Mediterranean coralligenous reefs

Monitoring the biodiversity of key habitats and understanding the drivers across spatial scales is essential for preserving ecosystem functions and associated services. Coralligenous reefs are threatened marine biodiversity hotspots that are challenging to monitor. As fish sounds reflect biodiversity in other habitats, we unveiled the biogeography of coralligenous reef sounds across the north-western Mediterranean using data from 27 sites covering 2000 km and 3 regions over a 3-year period. We assessed how acoustic biodiversity is related to habitat parameters and environmental status. We identified 28 putative fish sound types, which is up to four times as many as recorded in other Mediterranean habitats. 40% of these sounds are not found in other coastal habitats, thus strongly related to coralligenous reefs. Acoustic diversity differed between geographical regions. Ubiquitous sound types were identified, including sounds from top-predator species and others that were more specifically related to the presence of ecosystem engineers (red coral, gorgonians), which are key players in maintaining habitat function. The main determinants of acoustic community composition were depth and percentage coverage of coralligenous outcrops, suggesting that fish-related acoustic communities exhibit bathymetric stratification and are related to benthic reef assemblages. Multivariate analysis also revealed that acoustic communities can reflect different environmental states. This study presents the first large-scale map of acoustic fish biodiversity providing insights into the ichthyofauna that is otherwise difficult to assess because of reduced diving times. It also highlights the potential of passive acoustics in providing new aspects of the correlates of biogeographical patterns of this emblematic habitat relevant for monitoring and conservation.

The impact of climate warming on species diversity across scales: Lessons from experimental meta-ecosystems

AIM

The aim was to evaluate the effects of climate warming on biodiversity across spatial scales (i.e., α-, β- and γ-diversity) and the effects of patch openness and experimental context on diversity responses.

LOCATION

Global.

TIME PERIOD

1995-2017.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Fungi, invertebrates, phytoplankton, plants, seaweed, soil microbes and zooplankton.

METHODS

We compiled data from warming experiments and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of warming on different components of diversity (such as species richness and equivalent numbers) at different spatial scales (α-, β- and γ-diversity, partitioning β-diversity into species turnover and nestedness components). We also investigated how these effects were modulated by system openness, defined as the possibility of replicates being colonized by new species, and experimental context (duration, mean temperature change and ecosystem type).

RESULTS

Experimental warming did not affect local species richness (α-diversity) but decreased effective numbers of species by affecting species dominance. Warming increased species spatial turnover (β-diversity), although no significant changes were detected at the regional scale (γ-diversity). Site openness and experimental context did not significantly affect our results, despite significant heterogeneity in the effect sizes of α- and β-diversity.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis shows that the effects of warming on biodiversity are scale dependent. The local and regional inventory diversity remain unaltered, whereas species composition across temperature gradients and the patterns of species dominance change with temperature, creating novel communities that might be harder to predict.

Reproductive traits and population dynamics of benthic invertebrates indicate episodic recruitment patterns across an Arctic polar front

Climate-induced changes in the ocean and sea ice environment of the Arctic are beginning to generate major and rapid changes in Arctic ecosystems, but the effects of directional forcing on the persistence and distribution of species remain poorly understood. Here, we examine the reproductive traits and population dynamics of the bivalve Astarte crenata and sea star Ctenodiscus crispatus across a north-south transect that intersects the polar front in the Barents Sea. Both species present large oocytes indicative of short pelagic or direct development that do not differ in size-frequency between 74.5 and 81.3º latitude. However, despite gametogenic maturity, we found low frequencies of certain size classes within populations that may indicate periodic recruitment failure. We suggest that recruitment of A. crenata could occur periodically when conditions are favorable, while populations of C. crispatus are characterized by episodic recruitment failures. Pyloric caeca indices in C. crispatus show that food uptake is greatest at, and north of, the polar front, providing credence to the view that interannual variations in the quantity and quality of primary production and its flux to the seafloor, linked to the variable extent and thickness of sea ice, are likely to be strong determinants of physiological fitness. Our findings provide evidence that the distribution and long-term survival of species is not only a simple function of adaptive capacity to specific environmental changes, but will also be contingent on the frequency and occurrence of years where environmental conditions support reproduction and settlement.

Coming home - Boreal ecosystem claims Atlantic sector of the Arctic

The Atlantification of the European Arctic has been an increasingly discussed topic in polar science over the past two decades. The alteration of local marine ecosystems towards a more temperate state and the appearance/range expansion of subarctic-boreal species at higher latitudes is a complex phenomenon induced mainly by the changing properties of Atlantic water (AW) transported from the south. Areas under the direct influence of AW experience biological Atlantification of their communities on all trophic levels, resulting in the growing complexity of arctic food webs. Here, besides summarising the main documented messages of biological Atlantification, we take a critical view on the threat posed on Arctic marine communities. We take into account the formation of the Arctic marine fauna, as well as the nature of (re)colonisation of Arctic sites by boreal organisms when evaluating the extent of the issue. We take a look at the history of Arctic colonisations by boreal organisms in an attempt to identify 'neonative taxa returning home'. We also highlight the role of floating plastic debris as an 'instrument from the toolbox of the Anthropocene' aiding the distribution of marine taxa.

Semiparametric model selection for identification of environmental covariates related to adult groundfish catches and weights

Ecologists and fisheries managers are interested in monitoring economically important marine fish species and using this data to inform management strategies. Determining environmental factors that best predict changes in these populations, particularly under rapid climate change, are a priority. I illustrate the application of the least squares-based spline estimation and group LASSO (LSSGLASSO) procedure for selection of coefficient functions in single index varying coefficient models (SIVCMs) on an ecological data set that includes spatiotemporal environmental covariates suspected to play a role in the catches and weights of six groundfish species. Temporal trends in variable selection were apparent, though the selection of variables was largely unrelated to common North Pacific climate indices. These results indicate that the strength of an environmental variable’s effect on a groundfish population may change over time, and not necessarily in-step with known low-frequency patterns of ocean-climate variability commonly attributable to large-scale regime shifts in the North Pacific. My application of the LSSGLASSO procedure for SIVCMs to deep water species using environmental data from various sources illustrates how variable selection with a flexible model structure can produce informative inference for remote and hard-to-reach animal populations.

Ocean warming and species range shifts affect rates of ecosystem functioning by altering consumer-resource interactions

Recent warming trends have driven widespread changes in the performance and distribution of species in many regions, with consequent shifts in assemblage structure and ecosystem functioning. However, as responses to warming vary across species and regions, novel communities are emerging, particularly where warm-affinity range-expanding species have rapidly colonized communities still dominated by cold-affinity species. Such community reconfiguration may alter core ecosystem processes, such as productivity or nutrient cycling, yet it remains unclear whether novel communities function similarly to those they have replaced, and how continued warming will alter functioning in the near future. Using simplified kelp forest communities as a model system, we compared rates of respiration, consumption and secondary productivity between current cold-affinity and future warm-affinity kelp assemblages under both present-day temperatures and near-future warming in a series of mesocosm experiments. Overall, respiration rates of gastropods and amphipods increased with warming but did not differ between cold and warm affinity kelp assemblages. Consumption rates of three consumers (urchin, gastropod and amphipod) differed between kelp assemblages but only amphipod consumption rates increased with warming. A diet derived from warm-affinity kelp assemblages led to a decrease in growth and biomass of urchins, whereas the response of other consumers was variable depending on temperature treatment. These results suggest that climate-driven changes in assemblage structure of primary producers will alter per capita rates of ecosystem functioning, and that specific responses may vary in complex and unpredictable ways, with some mediated by warming more than others. Understanding how differences in life history and functional traits of dominant species will affect ecological interactions and, in turn, important ecosystem processes is crucial to understanding the wider implications of climate-driven community reconfiguration.

Increased functional diversity warns of ecological transition in the Arctic

As temperatures rise, motile species start to redistribute to more suitable areas, potentially affecting the persistence of several resident species and altering biodiversity and ecosystem functions. In the Barents Sea, a hotspot for global warming, marine fish from boreal regions have been increasingly found in the more exclusive Arctic region. Here, we show that this shift in species distribution is increasing species richness and evenness, and even more so, the functional diversity of the Arctic. Higher diversity is often interpreted as being positive for ecosystem health and is a target for conservation. However, the increasing trend observed here may be transitory as the traits involved threaten Arctic species via predation and competition. If the pressure from global warming continues to rise, the ensuing loss of Arctic species will result in a reduction in functional diversity.

Fish ecotyping based on machine learning and inferred network analysis of chemical and physical properties

Functional diversity rather than species richness is critical for the understanding of ecological patterns and processes. This study aimed to develop novel integrated analytical strategies for the functional characterization of fish diversity based on the quantification, prediction and integration of the chemical and physical features in fish muscles. Machine learning models with an improved random forest algorithm applied on 1867 muscle nuclear magnetic resonance spectra belonging to 249 fish species successfully predicted the mobility patterns of fishes into four categories (migratory, territorial, rockfish, and demersal) with accuracies of 90.3-95.4%. Markov blanket-based feature selection method with an ecological-chemical-physical integrated network based on the Bayesian network inference algorithm highlighted the importance of nitrogen metabolism, which is critical for environmental adaptability of fishes in nutrient-rich environments, in the functional characterization of fish biodiversity. Our study provides valuable information and analytical strategies for fish home-range assessment on the basis of the chemical and physical characterization of fish muscle, which can serve as an ecological indicator for fish ecotyping and human impact monitoring.

Atlantic walrus signal latitudinal differences in the long-term decline of sea ice-derived carbon to benthic fauna in the Canadian Arctic

Climate change is altering the biogeochemical and physical characteristics of the Arctic marine environment, which impacts sea ice algal and phytoplankton bloom dynamics and the vertical transport of these carbon sources to benthic communities. Little is known about whether the contribution of sea ice-derived carbon to benthic fauna and nitrogen cycling has changed over multiple decades in concert with receding sea ice. We combined compound-specific stable isotope analysis of amino acids with highly branched isoprenoid diatom lipid biomarkers using archived (1982-2016) tissue of benthivorous Atlantic walrus to examine temporal trends of sea ice-derived carbon, nitrogen isotope baseline and trophic position of Atlantic walrus at high- and mid-latitudes in the Canadian Arctic. Associated with an 18% sea ice decline in the mid-Arctic, sea ice-derived carbon contribution to Atlantic walrus decreased by 75% suggesting a strong decoupling of sea ice-benthic habitats. By contrast, a nearly exclusive amount of sea ice-derived carbon was maintained in high-Arctic Atlantic walrus (98% in 1996 and 89% in 2006) despite a similar percentage in sea ice reduction. Nitrogen isotope baseline or the trophic position of Atlantic walrus did not change over time at either location. These findings indicate latitudinal differences in the restructuring of carbon energy sources used by Atlantic walrus and their benthic prey, and in turn a change in Arctic marine ecosystem functioning between sea ice-pelagic-benthic habitats.

Atlantic walrus signal latitudinal differences in the long-term decline of sea ice-derived carbon to benthic fauna in the Canadian Arctic

Climate change is altering the biogeochemical and physical characteristics of the Arctic marine environment, which impacts sea ice algal and phytoplankton bloom dynamics and the vertical transport of these carbon sources to benthic communities. Little is known about whether the contribution of sea ice-derived carbon to benthic fauna and nitrogen cycling has changed over multiple decades in concert with receding sea ice. We combined compound-specific stable isotope analysis of amino acids with highly branched isoprenoid diatom lipid biomarkers using archived (1982-2016) tissue of benthivorous Atlantic walrus to examine temporal trends of sea ice-derived carbon, nitrogen isotope baseline and trophic position of Atlantic walrus at high- and mid-latitudes in the Canadian Arctic. Associated with an 18% sea ice decline in the mid-Arctic, sea ice-derived carbon contribution to Atlantic walrus decreased by 75% suggesting a strong decoupling of sea ice-benthic habitats. By contrast, a nearly exclusive amount of sea ice-derived carbon was maintained in high-Arctic Atlantic walrus (98% in 1996 and 89% in 2006) despite a similar percentage in sea ice reduction. Nitrogen isotope baseline or the trophic position of Atlantic walrus did not change over time at either location. These findings indicate latitudinal differences in the restructuring of carbon energy sources used by Atlantic walrus and their benthic prey, and in turn a change in Arctic marine ecosystem functioning between sea ice-pelagic-benthic habitats.

Resource-driven colonization by cod in a high Arctic food web

Climate change is commonly associated with many species redistributions and the influence of other factors may be marginalized, especially in the rapidly warming Arctic.The Barents Sea, a high latitude large marine ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic has experienced above-average temperatures since the mid-2000s with divergent bottom temperature trends at subregional scales.Concurrently, the Barents Sea stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, one of the most important commercial fish stocks in the world, increased following a large reduction in fishing pressure and expanded north of 80°N.We examined the influence of food availability and temperature on cod expansion using a comprehensive data set on cod stomach fullness stratified by subregions characterized by divergent temperature trends. We then tested whether food availability, as indexed by cod stomach fullness, played a role in cod expansion in subregions that were warming, cooling, or showed no trend.The greatest increase in cod occupancy occurred in three northern subregions with contrasting temperature trends. Cod apparently benefited from initial high food availability in these regions that previously had few large-bodied fish predators.The stomach fullness in the northern subregions declined rapidly after a few years of high cod abundance, suggesting that the arrival of cod caused a top-down effect on the prey base. Prolonged cod residency in the northern Barents Sea is, therefore, not a certainty.

Multiple facets of marine biodiversity in the Pacific Arctic under future climate

Climate change is triggering a global reorganization of marine life. Biogeographical transition zones, diversity-rich regions straddling biogeographical units where many species live at, or close to, their physiological tolerance limits (i.e., range distribution edges), are redistribution hotspots that offer a unique opportunity to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate-driven thermophilization processes in natural communities. In this context, we examined the impacts of climate change projections in the 21st century (2026-2100) on marine biodiversity in the Eastern Bering and Chukchi seas within the Pacific Arctic, a climatically exposed and sensitive boreal-to-Arctic transition zone. Overall, projected changes in species distributions, modeled using species distribution models, resulted in poleward increases in species richness and functional redundancy, along with pronounced reductions in phylogenetic distances by century's end (2076-2100). Future poleward shifts of boreal species in response to warming and sea ice changes are projected to alter the taxonomic and functional biogeography of contemporary Arctic communities as larger, longer-lived and more predatory taxa expand their leading distributional margins. Drawing from the existing evidence from other Arctic regions, these changes are anticipated to increase the susceptibility and vulnerability of the Arctic ecosystems, as trophic connectance between biological components increases, thus decreasing the modularity of Arctic food webs. Our results demonstrate how integrating multiple diversity facets can provide key insights into the relationships between climate change, species composition and ecosystem functioning across marine biogeographic regions.

Sea ice variability and maritime activity around Svalbard in the period 2012-2019

Climate change is strongly impacting the Arctic environment, leading to rapid sea ice loss. In some sectors, the retreating ice edge is perceived as an opportunity to expand and develop economic activities. Previous studies show this development in the Canadian and Russian Arctic. This paper examines mobility patterns of cruise ships and fishing vessels around Svalbard, a major hotspot of maritime activity and retreating sea ice cover, in relation to sea ice variability between August 2012 and September 2019. The results show a slight overall increase in fisheries and cruise activity, as well as remarkable trends of stretching operational seasons and expanding navigational areas in these sectors. Overall increasing activity and changing mobility patterns provoke a discussion about the implications for safe navigation and sustainable management, thus raising issues of high pan-Arctic relevance.

Shifting fish distributions in warming sub-Arctic oceans

The distributional response of marine fishes to climate warming would be expected to be very different than that of homeothermic birds and mammals, due both to more direct thermal effects on poikilothermic fish physiology and on reduced habitat fragmentation. In this study, we use a combination of linear models and graphical tools to quantify three-dimensional distribution shifts in 82 fish species caught in 5390 standardized groundfish survey tows over a 22-year time frame in the highly-productive sub-Arctic waters around Iceland. Over a 1 °C range, temperature significantly modified the distributional centroids of 72% of all fish species, but had relatively little effect on diversity. Most of the geographic shifts were to the northwest, and there was no overall tendency to move to deeper waters. A doubling of species abundance significantly influenced the distribution of 62% of species, but lacked the poleward orientation observed with temperature increases. Stenothermal species, those near their upper or lower thermal limits, and those with restricted spatial ranges were most likely to shift their distribution in response to climate warming, while deepwater species were not. A 2–3 °C warming of marine waters seems likely to produce large-scale changes in the location of many sub-Arctic fisheries.

Arctic coastal benthos long-term responses to perturbations under climate warming

Climate warming influences structure and function of Arctic benthic ecosystems. Assessing the response of these systems to perturbations requires long-term studies addressing key ecological processes related to recolonization and succession of species. Based on unique time-series (1980-2017), this study addresses successional patterns of hard-bottom benthos in two fjords in NW Svalbard after a pulse perturbation in 1980 and during a period of rapid climate warming. Analysis of seafloor photographs revealed different return rates of taxa, and variability in species densities, through time. It took 13 and 24 years for the community compositions of cleared and control transects to converge in the two fjords. Nearly two decades after the study initiation, an increase in filamentous and foliose macroalgae was observed with a subsequent reorganization in the invertebrate community. Trait analyses showed a decrease in body size and longevity of taxa in response to the pulse perturbation and a shift towards small/medium size and intermediate longevity following the macroalgae takeover. The observed slow recovery rates and abrupt shifts in community structure document the vulnerability of Arctic coastal ecosystems to perturbations and continued effects of climate warming. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.