The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

Current and Near-Term Earth-Observing Environmental Satellites, Their Missions, Characteristics, Instruments, and Applications

Among the essential tools to address global environmental information requirements are the Earth-Observing (EO) satellites with free and open data access. This paper reviews those EO satellites from international space programs that already, or will in the next decade or so, provide essential data of importance to the environmental sciences that describe Earth's status. We summarize factors distinguishing those pioneering satellites placed in space over the past half century, and their links to modern ones, and the changing priorities for spaceborne instruments and platforms. We illustrate the broad sweep of instrument technologies useful for observing different aspects of the physio-biological aspects of the Earth's surface, spanning wavelengths from the UV-A at 380 nanometers to microwave and radar out to 1 m. We provide a background on the technical specifications of each mission and its primary instrument(s), the types of data collected, and examples of applications that illustrate these observations. We provide websites for additional mission details of each instrument, the history or context behind their measurements, and additional details about their instrument design, specifications, and measurements.

A two-timescale model of plankton-oxygen dynamics predicts formation of oxygen minimum zones and global anoxia

Decline of the dissolved oxygen in the ocean is a growing concern, as it may eventually lead to global anoxia, an elevated mortality of marine fauna and even a mass extinction. Deoxygenation of the ocean often results in the formation of oxygen minimum zones (OMZ): large domains where the abundance of oxygen is much lower than that in the surrounding ocean environment. Factors and processes resulting in the OMZ formation remain controversial. We consider a conceptual model of coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics that, apart from the plankton growth and the oxygen production by phytoplankton, also accounts for the difference in the timescales for phyto- and zooplankton (making it a "slow-fast system") and for the implicit effect of upper trophic levels resulting in density dependent (nonlinear) zooplankton mortality. The model is investigated using a combination of analytical techniques and numerical simulations. The slow-fast system is decomposed into its slow and fast subsystems. The critical manifold of the slow-fast system and its stability is then studied by analyzing the bifurcation structure of the fast subsystem. We obtain the canard cycles of the slow-fast system for a range of parameter values. However, the system does not allow for persistent relaxation oscillations; instead, the blowup of the canard cycle results in plankton extinction and oxygen depletion. For the spatially explicit model, the earlier works in this direction did not take into account the density dependent mortality rate of the zooplankton, and thus could exhibit Turing pattern. However, the inclusion of the density dependent mortality into the system can lead to stationary Turing patterns. The dynamics of the system is then studied near the Turing bifurcation threshold. We further consider the effect of the self-movement of the zooplankton along with the turbulent mixing. We show that an initial non-uniform perturbation can lead to the formation of an OMZ, which then grows in size and spreads over space. For a sufficiently large timescale separation, the spread of the OMZ can result in global anoxia.

Beneath the surface: Decoding the impact of Chironomus riparius bioturbation on microplastic dispersion in sedimentary matrix

A detailed understanding of microplastics (MPs) behaviour in freshwater ecosystems is crucial for a proper ecological assessment. This includes the identification of significant transport pathways and net accumulation zones, considering their inherent, and already proven influence on aquatic ecosystems. Bioavailability of toxic agents is significantly influenced by macroinvertebrates' behaviour, such as bioturbation and burrowing, and their prior exposure history. This study investigates the effect of bioturbation activity of Chironomus riparius Meigen, 1804 on the vertical transfer of polyethylene MPs ex-situ. The experimental setup exposes larvae to a scenario of 10× the environmentally relevant high concentration of MPs (80 g m-2). Bioturbation activity was estimated using sediment profile imaging with luminophore tracers. This study demonstrated that spherical MPs are vertically transferred in the sediment due to the bioturbation activity of C. riparius larvae and that their presence influences the intensity of the bioturbation activity over time. The present findings provide a noteworthy contribution to the understanding of the relationship between ecosystem engineers and the dispersion and accumulation of MPs within freshwater ecosystems.

Response of Arctic benthic foraminiferal traits to past environmental changes

The Arctic is subjected to all-encompassing disruptions in marine ecosystems caused by anthropogenic warming. To provide reliable estimates of how future changes will affect the ecosystems, knowledge of Arctic marine ecosystem responses to past environmental variability beyond the instrumental era is essential. Here, we present a novel approach on how to evaluate the state of benthic marine biotic conditions during the deglacial and Holocene period on the Northeast Greenland shelf. Benthic foraminiferal species were assigned traits (e.g., oxygen tolerance, food preferences) aiming to identify past faunal changes as a response to external forcing mechanisms. This approach was applied on sediment cores from offshore Northeast Greenland. We performed numerical rate-of-change detection to determine significant changes in the benthic foraminiferal traits. That way, the significant abrupt trait changes can be assessed across sites, providing a better understanding of the impact of climate drivers on the traits. Our results demonstrate that during the last ~ 14,000 years, bottom water oxygen is the main factor affecting the variability in the benthic foraminiferal faunas in this area. Our results show that significant changes in the traits correspond to drastic climate perturbations. Specifically, the deglacial-Holocene transition and mid-Holocene warm period exhibited significant change, with several trait turnovers.

Ecological impacts of climate change on Arctic marine megafauna

Global warming affects the Arctic more than any other region. Mass media constantly relay apocalyptic visions of climate change threatening Arctic wildlife, especially emblematic megafauna such as polar bears, whales, and seabirds. Yet, we are just beginning to understand such ecological impacts on marine megafauna at the scale of the Arctic. This knowledge is geographically and taxonomically biased, with striking deficiencies in the Russian Arctic and strong focus on exploited species such as cod. Beyond a synthesis of scientific advances in the past 5 years, we provide ten key questions to be addressed by future work and outline the requested methodology. This framework builds upon long-term Arctic monitoring inclusive of local communities whilst capitalising on high-tech and big data approaches.

Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior

Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections to establish the detection timescales of anthropogenic signals in the global ocean through analyzing temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH evolution from surface to 2000 m depths. For most variables, anthropogenic changes emerge earlier in the interior ocean than at the surface, due to the lower background variability at depth. Acidification is detectable earliest, followed by warming and oxygen changes in the subsurface tropical Atlantic. Temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Even under mitigated scenarios, inner ocean anthropogenic signals are projected to emerge within the next few decades. This is because they originate from existing surface changes that are now propagating into the interior. In addition to the tropical Atlantic, our study calls for establishment of long-term interior monitoring systems in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in order to elucidate how spatially heterogeneous anthropogenic signals propagate into the interior and impact marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry.

The global spread of jellyfish hazards mirrors the pace of human imprint in the marine environment

The rising demand of ecosystem services, due to the increasing human population in coastal areas, and the subsequent need to secure healthy and sustainable seas constitute a major challenge for marine ecosystems management. In addition, global anthropogenic changes have transformed the marine realm, thereby challenging ecosystem health and the services necessary for human welfare. These changes have opened ecological space for opportunistic organisms, such as jellyfish, resulting in ecosystem-wide and economic implications that threaten marine ecosystem services. Here, we used a comprehensive dataset of jellyfish hazards over the period 1960-2019 to track their dynamics and implications for human welfare. Our results revealed that their large-scale patterns have been mainly enhanced in human-perturbed Large Marine Ecosystems, although the contribution of jellyfish Class to hazard type changed across ocean regions. The long-term variability of these events suggests that their temporal patterns mirror the pace of ocean warming and ocean health degradation nurtured by global anthropogenic changes in recent decades. These results warn of the wide socioecological risks of jellyfish hazards, and their implications advocate for transboundary, regional cooperation to develop effective ecosystem-based management actions. Failure to integrate jellyfish into ocean surveys will compromise coastal ecosystem services governance. Classification: Social Sciences/Sustainability Science, Biological Sciences/Ecology.

Machine learning prediction of connectivity, biodiversity and resilience in the Coral Triangle

Even optimistic climate scenarios predict catastrophic consequences for coral reef ecosystems by 2100. Understanding how reef connectivity, biodiversity and resilience are shaped by climate variability would improve chances to establish sustainable management practices. In this regard, ecoregionalization and connectivity are pivotal to designating effective marine protected areas. Here, machine learning algorithms and physical intuition are applied to sea surface temperature anomaly data over a twenty-four-year period to extract ecoregions and assess connectivity and bleaching recovery potential in the Coral Triangle and surrounding oceans. Furthermore, the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on biodiversity and resilience are quantified. We find that resilience is higher for reefs north of the Equator and that the extraordinary biodiversity of the Coral Triangle is dynamic in time and space, and benefits from ENSO. The large-scale exchange of genetic material is enhanced between the Indian Ocean and the Coral Triangle during La Niña years, and between the Coral Triangle and the central Pacific in neutral conditions. Through machine learning the outstanding biodiversity of the Coral Triangle, its evolution and the increase of species richness are contextualized through geological times, while offering new hope for monitoring its future.

Stable landings mask irreversible community reorganizations in an overexploited Mediterranean ecosystem

Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts. Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes. We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes. We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community. Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management.

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

Negotiating Sustainability Transitions: Why Does It Matter? What Are the Challenges? How to Proceed?

Why Does It Matter [...]

The Climate Change Challenge: A Review of the Barriers and Solutions to Deliver a Paris Solution

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to grow persistently since 1750. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) entered into force in 1994 to stabilize GHG emissions. Since then, the increasingly harmful impacts of global climate change and repeated scientific warnings about future risks have not been enough to change the emissions trend and enforce policy actions. This paper synthesizes the climate change challenges and the insofar insufficient mitigation responses via an integrated literature review. The fossil industry, mainstream economic thinking, national rather than international interests, and political strive for short-term interests present key barriers to climate mitigation. A continuation of such trends is reflected in the Dice model, leading to a 3.5 °C temperature increase by 2100. Despite receiving the Nobel Prize for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis via the Dice model, increases in global mean temperatures overshooting the 1.5 °C to 2 °C Paris targets imply an intensified disruption in the human–climate system. Past and present policy delays and climate disruption pave the way for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering solutions with largely unknown and potentially dangerous side effects. This paper argues against SRM geoengineering and evaluates critical mitigation solutions leading to a decrease in global temperatures without overshooting the Paris targets. The essential drivers and barriers are discussed through a unified approach to tipping points in the human–climate system. The scientific literature presents many economically and technologically viable solutions and the policy and measures required to implement them. The present paper identifies the main barriers to integrating them in a globally cooperative way, presenting an efficient, long-term, and ethical policy approach to climate change.

Calculating dissolved marine oxygen values based on an enhanced Benthic Foraminifera Oxygen Index

Marine oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) trap greenhouse gases, reduce livable habitats, a critical factor for these changes is the amount of dissolved oxygen (DO). The frequently used tool to reconstruct DO values, the Benthic Foraminifera Oxygen Index (BFOI), showed major shortcomings and lacks effectiveness. Therefore, we enhanced the BFOI and introduce enhanced BFOI (EBFOI) formulas by using all available data benthic foraminifers provide, calculating the whole livable habitat of benthic foraminifers, including bottom water oxygenation (BWO) and pore water oxygenation (PWO). Further, we introduce for the first time a transfer function to convert EBFOI vales directly into DO values, increasing efficiency by up to 38%. All formulas are calibrated on modern samples and applied to fossil datasets. Our new approach provides a major improvement in defining and reconstructing marine oxygen levels and eutrophication, by, providing a new toolset for understanding past changes and tracking actual and predicted future expanding OMZs.

Variability of trace metals in coastal and estuary: Distribution, profile, and drivers

Ongoing global changes such as increasing sea-surface temperatures, decreasing acidity levels, and expanding oxygen-minimum zone may impact on the biogeochemical cycles of trace metals in ocean systems. Each trace metal has unique characteristics and a distinctive distribution pattern controlled by chemical, biological, and physical processes that occur in ocean systems. The correlations of variability drivers in trace metals are interesting topics for investigation. Following up on ocean research in the coastal and estuary area, we specifically review the distribution of trace metals in seawater and suspended and surface sediment. The marginal seas usually feature significant terrestrial inputs accompanied by several active water-mass currents. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of variability related to trace-metal distribution in coastal and estuary systems and to specifically describe the distribution, profile and drivers that affect trace metals variability.

Factors Limiting the Range Extension of Corals into High-Latitude Reef Regions

Reef-building corals show a marked decrease in total species richness from the tropics to high latitude regions. Several hypotheses have been proposed to account for this pattern in the context of abiotic and biotic factors, including temperature thresholds, light limitation, aragonite saturation, nutrient or sediment loads, larval dispersal constraints, competition with macro-algae or other invertebrates, and availability of suitable settlement cues or micro-algal symbionts. Surprisingly, there is a paucity of data supporting several of these hypotheses. Given the immense pressures faced by corals in the Anthropocene, it is critical to understand the factors limiting their distribution in order to predict potential range expansions and the role that high latitude reefs can play as refuges from climate change. This review examines these factors and outlines critical research areas to address knowledge gaps in our understanding of light/temperature interactions, coral-Symbiodiniaceae associations, settlement cues, and competition in high latitude reefs.

Phase transitions in biology: from bird flocks to population dynamics

Phase transitions are an important and extensively studied concept in physics. The insights derived from understanding phase transitions in physics have recently and successfully been applied to a number of different phenomena in biological systems. Here, we provide a brief review of phase transitions and their role in explaining biological processes ranging from collective behaviour in animal flocks to neuronal firing. We also highlight a new and exciting area where phase transition theory is particularly applicable: population collapse and extinction. We discuss how phase transition theory can give insight into a range of extinction events such as population decline due to climate change or microbial responses to stressors such as antibiotic treatment.

Symbiosis and the Anthropocene

Recent human activity has profoundly transformed Earth biomes on a scale and at rates that are unprecedented. Given the central role of symbioses in ecosystem processes, functions, and services throughout the Earth biosphere, the impacts of human-driven change on symbioses are critical to understand. Symbioses are not merely collections of organisms, but co-evolved partners that arise from the synergistic combination and action of different genetic programs. They function with varying degrees of permanence and selection as emergent units with substantial potential for combinatorial and evolutionary innovation in both structure and function. Following an articulation of operational definitions of symbiosis and related concepts and characteristics of the Anthropocene, we outline a basic typology of anthropogenic change (AC) and a conceptual framework for how AC might mechanistically impact symbioses with select case examples to highlight our perspective. We discuss surprising connections between symbiosis and the Anthropocene, suggesting ways in which new symbioses could arise due to AC, how symbioses could be agents of ecosystem change, and how symbioses, broadly defined, of humans and “farmed” organisms may have launched the Anthropocene. We conclude with reflections on the robustness of symbioses to AC and our perspective on the importance of symbioses as ecosystem keystones and the need to tackle anthropogenic challenges as wise and humble stewards embedded within the system.

Tipping point realized in cod fishery

Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change.