Disproportionate extinction of South American mammals drove the asymmetry of the Great American Biotic Interchange

Challenges in estimating species' age from phylogenetic trees

Aim

Species age, the elapsed time since origination, can give insight into how species longevity might influence eco-evolutionary dynamics, which has been hypothesized to influence extinction risk. Traditionally, species' ages have been estimated from fossil records. However, numerous studies have recently used the branch lengths of time-calibrated phylogenies as estimates of the ages of extant species. This approach poses problems because phylogenetic trees only contain direct information about species identity at the tips and not along the branches. Here, we show that incomplete taxon sampling, extinction, and different assumptions about speciation modes can significantly alter the relationship between true species age and phylogenetic branch lengths, leading to high error rates. We found that these biases can lead to erroneous interpretations of eco-evolutionary patterns derived from comparing phylogenetic age and other traits, such as extinction risk.

Innovation

For bifurcating speciation, the default assumption in most analyses of species age, we propose a probabilistic approach based on the properties of a birth-death process to improve the estimation of species ages. Our approach can reduce the error by one order of magnitude under cases of high extinction and a high percentage of unsampled extant species.

Main conclusion

Our results call for caution in interpreting the relationship between phylogenetic ages and eco-evolutionary traits, as this can lead to biased and erroneous conclusions. We show that, under the assumption of bifurcating speciation, we can obtain unbiased approximations of species age by combining information from branch lengths with the expectations of a birth-death process.

DeepDive: estimating global biodiversity patterns through time using deep learning

Understanding how biodiversity has changed through time is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, estimates of past biodiversity are challenged by the inherent incompleteness of the fossil record, even when state-of-the-art statistical methods are applied to adjust estimates while correcting for sampling biases. Here we develop an approach based on stochastic simulations of biodiversity and a deep learning model to infer richness at global or regional scales through time while incorporating spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling variation. Our method outperforms alternative approaches across simulated datasets, especially at large spatial scales, providing robust palaeodiversity estimates under a wide range of preservation scenarios. We apply our method on two empirical datasets of different taxonomic and temporal scope: the Permian-Triassic record of marine animals and the Cenozoic evolution of proboscideans. Our estimates provide a revised quantitative assessment of two mass extinctions in the marine record and reveal rapid diversification of proboscideans following their expansion out of Africa and a >70% diversity drop in the Pleistocene.

Phylogenetic congruence of Plasmodium spp. and wild ungulate hosts in the Peruvian Amazon

Malaria parasites are known to infect a variety of vertebrate hosts, including ungulates. However, ungulates of Amazonia have not been investigated. We report for the first time, the presence of parasite lineages closely related to Plasmodium odocoilei clade 1 and clade 2 in free-ranging South American red-brocket deer (Mazama americana; 44.4%, 4/9) and gray-brocket deer (Mazama nemorivaga; 50.0%, 1/2). We performed PCR-based analysis of blood samples from 47 ungulates of five different species collected during subsistence hunting by an indigenous community in the Peruvian Amazon. We detected Plasmodium malariae/brasilianum lineage in a sample from red-brocket deer. However, no parasite DNA was detected in collared peccary (Pecari tajacu; 0.0%, 0/10), white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari; 0.0%, 0/15), and tapir (Tapirus terrestris; 0.0%, 0/11). Concordant phylogenetic analyses suggested a possible co-evolutionary relationship between the Plasmodium lineages found in American deer and their hosts.

How Important Is Budding Speciation for Comparative Studies?

The acknowledgment of evolutionary dependence among species has fundamentally changed how we ask biological questions. Phylogenetic models became the standard approach for studies with 3 or more lineages, in particular those using extant species. Most phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) translate relatedness into covariance, meaning that evolutionary changes before lineages split should be interpreted together whereas after the split lineages are expected to change independently. This clever realization has shaped decades of research. Here, we discuss one element of the comparative method often ignored or assumed as unimportant: if nodes of a phylogeny represent the dissolution of the ancestral lineage into two new ones or if the ancestral lineage can survive speciation events (i.e., budding). Budding speciation is often reported in paleontological studies, due to the nature of the evidence for budding in the fossil record, but it is surprisingly absent in comparative methods. Here, we show that many PCMs assume that divergence happens as a symmetric split, even if these methods do not explicitly mention this assumption. We discuss the properties of trait evolution models for continuous and discrete traits and their adequacy under a scenario of budding speciation. We discuss the effects of budding speciation under a series of plausible evolutionary scenarios and show when and how these can influence our estimates. We also propose that long-lived lineages that have survived through a series of budding speciation events and given birth to multiple new lineages can produce evolutionary patterns that challenge our intuition about the most parsimonious history of trait changes in a clade. We hope our discussion can help bridge comparative approaches in paleontology and neontology as well as foster awareness about the assumptions we make when we use phylogenetic trees.

Climate change and long-term human behaviour in the Neotropics: an archaeological view from the Global South

In this paper, we argue for the inclusion of archaeology in discussions about how humans have contributed to and dealt with climate change, especially in the long term. We suggest Niche Construction Theory as a suitable framework to that end. In order to take into account both human and environmental variability, we also advocate for a situated perspective that includes the Global South as a source of knowledge production, and the Neotropics as a relevant case study to consider. To illustrate this, we review the mid-Holocene Hypsithermal period in the southern Puna and continental Patagonia, both in southern South America, by assessing the challenges posed by this climate period and the archaeological signatures of the time from a Niche Construction Theory perspective. Finally, we emphasize the importance of these considerations for policymaking. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Paleoenvironments shaped the exchange of terrestrial vertebrates across Wallace's Line

Faunal turnover in Indo-Australia across Wallace's Line is one of the most recognizable patterns in biogeography and has catalyzed debate about the role of evolutionary and geoclimatic history in biotic interchanges. Here, analysis of more than 20,000 vertebrate species with a model of geoclimate and biological diversification shows that broad precipitation tolerance and dispersal ability were key for exchange across the deep-time precipitation gradient spanning the region. Sundanian (Southeast Asian) lineages evolved in a climate similar to the humid "stepping stones" of Wallacea, facilitating colonization of the Sahulian (Australian) continental shelf. By contrast, Sahulian lineages predominantly evolved in drier conditions, hampering establishment in Sunda and shaping faunal distinctiveness. We demonstrate how the history of adaptation to past environmental conditions shapes asymmetrical colonization and global biogeographic structure.

Species richness disparity in tropical terrestrial herbaceous floras: evolutionary insight from Collabieae (Orchidaceae)

Species richness is spatially heterogeneous even in the hyperdiverse tropical floras. The main cause of uneven species richness among the four tropical regions are hot debated. To date, higher net diversification rates and/or longer colonization time have been usually proposed to contribute to this pattern. However, there are few studies to clarify the species richness patterns in tropical terrestrial floras. The terrestrial tribe Collabieae (Orchidaceae) unevenly distributes in the tropical regions with a diverse and endemic center in Asia. Twenty-one genera 127 species of Collabieae and 26 DNA regions were used to reconstruct the phylogeny and infer the biogeographical processes. We compared the topologies, diversification rates and niche rates of Collabieae and regional lineages on empirical samplings and different simulated samplings fractions respectively. Our results suggested that the Collabieae originated in Asia at the earliest Oligocene, and then independently spread to Africa, Central America, and Oceania since the Miocene via long-distance dispersal. These results based on empirical data and simulated data were similar. BAMM, GeoSSE and niche analyses inferred that the Asian lineages had higher net diversification and niche rates than those of Oceanian and African lineages on the empirical and simulated analyses. Precipitation is the most important factor for Collabieae, and the Asian lineage has experienced more stable and humid climate, which may promote the higher net diversification rate. Besides, the longer colonization time may also be associated with the Asian lineages' diversity. These findings provided a better understanding of the regional diversity heterogeneity in tropical terrestrial herbaceous floras.

A global phylogeny of butterflies reveals their evolutionary history, ancestral hosts and biogeographic origins

Butterflies are a diverse and charismatic insect group that are thought to have evolved with plants and dispersed throughout the world in response to key geological events. However, these hypotheses have not been extensively tested because a comprehensive phylogenetic framework and datasets for butterfly larval hosts and global distributions are lacking. We sequenced 391 genes from nearly 2,300 butterfly species, sampled from 90 countries and 28 specimen collections, to reconstruct a new phylogenomic tree of butterflies representing 92% of all genera. Our phylogeny has strong support for nearly all nodes and demonstrates that at least 36 butterfly tribes require reclassification. Divergence time analyses imply an origin ~100 million years ago for butterflies and indicate that all but one family were present before the K/Pg extinction event. We aggregated larval host datasets and global distribution records and found that butterflies are likely to have first fed on Fabaceae and originated in what is now the Americas. Soon after the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum, butterflies crossed Beringia and diversified in the Palaeotropics. Our results also reveal that most butterfly species are specialists that feed on only one larval host plant family. However, generalist butterflies that consume two or more plant families usually feed on closely related plants.

Asymmetric migration dynamics of the tropical Asian and Australasian floras

The tropical Asian and Australasian floras have a close relationship, and is a vital distribution pattern of seed plants worldwide. As estimated, more than 81 families and 225 genera of seed plants distributed between tropical Asia and Australasia. However, the evolutionary dynamics of two floras were still vague. Here, a total of 29 plant lineages, represented the main clades of seed plants and different habits, were selected to investigate the biotic interchange between tropical Asia and Australasia by integrated dated phylogenies, biogeography, and ancestral state reconstructions. Our statistics indicated that 68 migrations have occurred between tropical Asia and Australasia since the middle Eocene except terminal migrations, and the migration events from tropical Asia to Australasia is more than 2 times of the reverse. Only 12 migrations occurred before 15 Ma, whereas the remaining 56 migrations occurred after 15 Ma. Maximal number of potential dispersal events (MDE) analysis also shows obvious asymmetry, with southward migration as the main feature, and indicates the climax of bi-directional migrations occurred after 15 Ma. We speculate that the formation of island chains after the Australian-Sundaland collision and climate changes have driven seed plant migrations since the middle Miocene. Furthermore, biotic dispersal and stable habitat may be crucial for floristic interchange between tropical Asia and Australasia.

Integrating deep-time palaeontology in conservation prioritisation

Halting biodiversity loss under growing anthropogenic pressure is arguably the greatest environmental challenge we face. Given that not all species are equally threatened and that resources are always limited, establishing robust prioritisation schemes is critical for implementing effective conservation actions. To this end, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species has become a widely used source of information on species’ extinction risk. Various metrics have been proposed that combine IUCN status with different aspects of biodiversity to identify conservation priorities. However, current strategies do not take full advantage of palaeontological data, with conservation palaeobiology often focussing on the near-time fossil record (the last 2 million years). Here, we make a case for the value of the deep-time (over 2 million years ago), as it can offer tangible parallels with today’s biodiversity crisis and inform on the intrinsic traits that make species prone to extinction. As such, palaeontological data holds great predictive power, which could be harnessed to flag species likely to be threatened but that are currently too poorly known to be identified as such. Finally, we identify key IUCN-based prioritisation metrics and outline opportunities for integrating palaeontological data to validate their implementation. Although the human signal of the current extinction crisis makes direct comparisons with the geological past challenging, the deep-time fossil record has more to offer to conservation than is currently recognised.

The African trees that conquered Asia

[Figure: see text].

Biotic and Abiotic Controls on the Phanerozoic History of Marine Animal Biodiversity

During the past 541 million years, marine animals underwent three intervals of diversification (early Cambrian, Ordovician, Cretaceous–Cenozoic) separated by nondirectional fluctuation, suggesting diversity-dependent dynamics with the equilibrium diversity shifting through time. Changes in factors such as shallow-marine habitat area and climate appear to have modulated the nondirectional fluctuations. Directional increases in diversity are best explained by evolutionary innovations in marine animals and primary producers coupled with stepwise increases in the availability of food and oxygen. Increasing intensity of biotic interactions such as predation and disturbance may have led to positive feedbacks on diversification as ecosystems became more complex. Important areas for further research include improving the geographic coverage and temporal resolution of paleontological data sets, as well as deepening our understanding of Earth system evolution and the physiological and ecological traits that modulated organismal responses to environmental change.

Satellite DNA in Neotropical Deer Species

The taxonomy and phylogenetics of Neotropical deer have been mostly based on morphological criteria and needs a critical revision on the basis of new molecular and cytogenetic markers. In this study, we used the variation in the sequence, copy number, and chromosome localization of satellite I-IV DNA to evaluate evolutionary relationships among eight Neotropical deer species. Using FISH with satI-IV probes derived from Mazama gouazoubira, we proved the presence of satellite DNA blocks in peri/centromeric regions of all analyzed deer. Satellite DNA was also detected in the interstitial chromosome regions of species of the genus Mazama with highly reduced chromosome numbers. In contrast to Blastocerus dichotomus, Ozotoceros bezoarticus, and Odocoileus virginianus, Mazama species showed high abundance of satIV DNA by FISH. The phylogenetic analysis of the satellite DNA showed close relationships between O. bezoarticus and B. dichotomus. Furthermore, the Neotropical and Nearctic populations of O. virginianus formed a single clade. However, the satellite DNA phylogeny did not allow resolving the relationships within the genus Mazama. The high abundance of the satellite DNA in centromeres probably contributes to the formation of chromosomal rearrangements, thus leading to a fast and ongoing speciation in this genus, which has not yet been reflected in the satellite DNA sequence diversification.

Disproportionate extinction of South American mammals drove the asymmetry of the Great American Biotic Interchange

The biological interchange between North and South America associated with the formation of the Isthmus of Panama is key to defining current gradients of species diversity. A major gap in our understanding of the interchange is its asymmetry, where mammals of North American origin attained higher diversity in South America than vice versa. The prevailing view is that this asymmetry resulted from higher origination of immigrant mammals in South America. In contrast, we find that asymmetry results from high extinction of native mammals in South America, which reduced the diversity of native mammals available to disperse northwards. These results shed light on the legacy of the biotic interchange to understand the current patterns of species diversity across the Americas.

The interchange between the previously disconnected faunas of North and South America was a massive experiment in biological invasion. A major gap in our understanding of this invasion is why there was a drastic increase in the proportion of mammals of North American origin found in South America. Four nonmutually exclusive mechanisms may explain this asymmetry: 1) Higher dispersal rate of North American mammals toward the south, 2) higher origination of North American immigrants in South America, 3) higher extinction of mammals with South American origin, and 4) similar dispersal rate but a larger pool of native taxa in North versus South America. We test among these mechanisms by analyzing ∼20,000 fossil occurrences with Bayesian methods to infer dispersal and diversification rates and taxonomic selectivity of immigrants. We find no differences in the dispersal and origination rates of immigrants. In contrast, native South American mammals show higher extinction. We also find that two clades with North American origin (Carnivora and Artiodactyla) had significantly more immigrants in South America than other clades. Altogether, the asymmetry of the interchange was not due to higher origination of immigrants in South America as previously suggested, but resulted from higher extinction of native taxa in southern South America. These results from one of the greatest biological invasions highlight how biogeographic processes and biotic interactions can shape continental diversity.