Reply to Ng et al.: Not all trauma is the same, but lessons can be drawn from commonalities

Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes

Early forecasts give people in a storm's path time to prepare. Less is known about the cost to society when forecasts are incorrect. In this observational study, we examine over 700,000 births in the path of Hurricane Irene and find exposure was associated with impaired birth outcomes. Additional warning time was associated with decreased preterm birth rates for women who experienced intense storm exposures documenting a benefit of avoiding a type II forecasting error. A larger share of this at-risk population experienced a type I forecasting error where severe physical storm impacts were anticipated but not experienced. Disaster anticipation disrupted healthcare services by delaying and canceling prenatal care, which may contribute to storm-impacted birth outcomes. Recognizing storm damages depend on human responses to predicted storm paths is critical to supporting the next generation's developmental potential with judicious forecasts that ensure public warning systems mitigate rather than exacerbate climate damages.

Mourning in a Pandemic: The Differential Impact of COVID-19 Widowhood on Mental Health

OBJECTIVES

The death of a spouse is an established predictor of mental health decline that foreshadows worsening physical health and elevated mortality. The millions widowed by COVID-19 worldwide may experience even worse health outcomes than comparable pre-pandemic widows given the particularities of dying, mourning, and grieving during a pandemic defined by protracted social isolation, economic precarity, and general uncertainty. If COVID-19 pandemic bereavement is more strongly associated with mental health challenges than pre-pandemic bereavement, the large new cohort of COVID-19 widow(er)s may be at substantial risk of downstream health problems long after the pandemic abates.

METHODS

We pooled population-based Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe data from 27 countries for two distinct periods: (1) pre-pandemic (Wave 8, fielded October 2019-March 2020; N = 46,266) and (2) early pandemic (COVID Supplement, fielded June-August 2020; N = 55,796). The analysis used a difference-in-difference design to assess whether a spouse dying from COVID-19 presents unique mental health risks (self-reported depression, loneliness, and trouble sleeping), compared with pre-pandemic recent spousal deaths.

RESULTS

We find strong associations between recent spousal death and poor mental health before and during the pandemic. However, our difference-in-difference estimates indicate those whose spouses died of COVID-19 have higher risks of self-reported depression and loneliness, but not trouble sleeping, than expected based on pre-pandemic associations.

DISCUSSION

These results highlight that the millions of COVID-19 widow(er)s face extreme mental health risks, eclipsing those experienced by surviving spouses pre-pandemic, furthering concerns about the pandemic's lasting impacts on health.