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Abera TA, Heiskanen J, Maeda EE, Muhammed MA, Bhandari N, Vakkari V, Hailu BT, Pellikka PKE, Hemp A, van Zyl PG, Zeuss D. Deforestation amplifies climate change effects on warming and cloud level rise in African montane forests. Nat Commun 2024; 15:6992. [PMID: 39143071 PMCID: PMC11324879 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51324-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2024] [Accepted: 08/05/2024] [Indexed: 08/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Tropical montane forest ecosystems are pivotal for sustaining biodiversity and essential terrestrial ecosystem services, including the provision of high-quality fresh water. Nonetheless, the impact of montane deforestation and climate change on the capacity of forests to deliver ecosystem services is yet to be fully understood. In this study, we offer observational evidence demonstrating the response of air temperature and cloud base height to deforestation in African montane forests over the last two decades. Our findings reveal that approximately 18% (7.4 ± 0.5 million hectares) of Africa's montane forests were lost between 2003 and 2022. This deforestation has led to a notable increase in maximum air temperature (1.37 ± 0.58 °C) and cloud base height (236 ± 87 metres), surpassing shifts attributed solely to climate change. Our results call for urgent attention to montane deforestation, as it poses serious threats to biodiversity, water supply, and ecosystem services in the tropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Temesgen Alemayehu Abera
- Department of Environmental Informatics, Faculty of Geography, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Deutschhausstraße 12, 35037, Marburg, Germany.
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Janne Heiskanen
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eduardo Eiji Maeda
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mohammed Ahmed Muhammed
- Department of Environmental Informatics, Faculty of Geography, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Deutschhausstraße 12, 35037, Marburg, Germany
- School of Earth Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Netra Bhandari
- Department of Environmental Informatics, Faculty of Geography, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Deutschhausstraße 12, 35037, Marburg, Germany
| | - Ville Vakkari
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland
- Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group, Chemical Resource Beneficiation, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
| | - Binyam Tesfaw Hailu
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
- School of Earth Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Petri K E Pellikka
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
- State Key Laboratory for Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China
| | - Andreas Hemp
- Department of Plant Systematics, University of Bayreuth, 95440, Bayreuth, Germany
| | - Pieter G van Zyl
- Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group, Chemical Resource Beneficiation, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
| | - Dirk Zeuss
- Department of Environmental Informatics, Faculty of Geography, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Deutschhausstraße 12, 35037, Marburg, Germany
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2
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Terschanski J, Nunes MH, Aalto I, Pellikka P, Wekesa C, Maeda EE. The role of vegetation structural diversity in regulating the microclimate of human-modified tropical ecosystems. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 360:121128. [PMID: 38776661 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2024] [Revised: 04/20/2024] [Accepted: 05/08/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
Vegetation regulates microclimate stability through biophysical mechanisms such as evaporation, transpiration and shading. Therefore, thermal conditions in tree-dominated habitats will frequently differ significantly from standardized free-air temperature measurements. The ability of forests to buffer temperatures nominates them as potential sanctuaries for tree species intolerant to the increasingly challenging thermal conditions established by climate change. Although many factors influencing thermal conditions beneath the vegetation cover have been ascertained, the role of three-dimensional vegetation structure in regulating the understory microclimate remains understudied. Recent advances in remote sensing technologies, such as terrestrial laser scanning, have allowed scientists to capture the three-dimensional structural heterogeneity of vegetation with a high level of accuracy. Here, we examined the relationships between vegetation structure parametrized from voxelized laser scanning point clouds, air and soil temperature ranges, as well as offsets between field-measured temperatures and gridded free-air temperature estimates in 17 sites in a tropical mountain ecosystem in Southeast Kenya. Structural diversity generally exerted a cooling effect on understory temperatures, but vertical diversity and stratification explained more variation in the understory air and soil temperature ranges (30%-40%) than canopy cover (27%), plant area index (24%) and average stand height (23%). We also observed that the combined effects of stratification, canopy cover and elevation explained more than half of the variation (53%) in understory air temperature ranges. Stratification's attenuating effect was consistent across different levels of elevation. Temperature offsets between field measurements and free-air estimates were predominantly controlled by elevation, but stratification and structural diversity were influential predictors of maximum and median temperature offsets. Moreover, stable understory temperatures were strongly associated with a large offset in daytime maximum temperatures, suggesting that structural diversity primarily contributes to thermal stability by cooling daytime maximum temperatures. Our findings shed light on the thermal influence of vertical vegetation structure and, in the context of tropical land-use change, suggest that decision-makers aiming to mitigate the thermal impacts of land conversion should prioritize management practices that preserve structural diversity by retaining uneven-aged trees and mixing plant species of varying sizes, e.g., silvopastoral, or agroforestry systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Terschanski
- Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Regina-Pacis-Weg 3, 53113, Bonn, Germany; Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Yliopistonkatu 4, 00100, Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Matheus Henrique Nunes
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Yliopistonkatu 4, 00100, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, 20742, Maryland, United States.
| | - Iris Aalto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Yliopistonkatu 4, 00100, Helsinki, Finland; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom.
| | - Petri Pellikka
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Yliopistonkatu 4, 00100, Helsinki, Finland; State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, PR China; Wangari Maathai Institute for Environmental and Peace Studies, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 29053, 00625, Kangemi, Kenya.
| | - Chemuku Wekesa
- Taita Taveta Research Centre, Kenya Forestry Research Institute - KEFRI, P.O. Box 1206-70304, Wundanyi, Kenya.
| | - Eduardo Eiji Maeda
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Yliopistonkatu 4, 00100, Helsinki, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute - FMI, Erik Palménin Aukio 1, 00101, Helsinki, Finland.
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3
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Bottino MJ, Nobre P, Giarolla E, da Silva Junior MB, Capistrano VB, Malagutti M, Tamaoki JN, de Oliveira BFA, Nobre CA. Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil. Sci Rep 2024; 14:5131. [PMID: 38429332 PMCID: PMC11319773 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-55176-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/21/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Land use change and atmospheric composition, two drivers of climate change, can interact to affect both local and remote climate regimes. Previous works have considered the effects of greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere and the effects of Amazon deforestation in atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, we investigate the impacts of the Brazilian Amazon savannization and global warming in a fully coupled ocean-land-sea ice-atmosphere model simulation. We find that both savannization and global warming individually lengthen the dry season and reduce annual rainfall over large tracts of South America. The combined effects of land use change and global warming resulted in a mean annual rainfall reduction of 44% and a dry season length increase of 69%, when averaged over the Amazon basin, relative to the control run. Modulation of inland moisture transport due to savannization shows the largest signal to explain the rainfall reduction and increase in dry season length over the Amazon and Central-West. The combined effects of savannization and global warming resulted in maximum daily temperature anomalies, reaching values of up to 14 °C above the current climatic conditions over the Amazon. Also, as a consequence of both climate drivers, both soil moisture and surface runoff decrease over most of the country, suggesting cascading negative future impacts on both agriculture production and hydroelectricity generation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcus Jorge Bottino
- National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra SP-RJ Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12630-000, Brazil.
| | - Paulo Nobre
- National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra SP-RJ Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12630-000, Brazil
| | - Emanuel Giarolla
- National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra SP-RJ Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12630-000, Brazil
| | - Manoel Baptista da Silva Junior
- National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra SP-RJ Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12630-000, Brazil
| | | | - Marta Malagutti
- National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra SP-RJ Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12630-000, Brazil
| | - Jonas Noboru Tamaoki
- National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra SP-RJ Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12630-000, Brazil
| | | | - Carlos Afonso Nobre
- Institute of Advanced Studies (IEA), São Paulo University, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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4
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Zhang J, Wu J, Hughes AC, Kaplan JO, Maeda EE. Bio-geophysical feedback to climate caused by the conversion of Amazon Forest to soybean plantations. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 905:166802. [PMID: 37683854 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166802] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Revised: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/02/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023]
Abstract
Over the past two decades, soybean cultivation has become one of the principal replacements for forests in the Brazilian Amazon. Previous studies showed that the conversion of forests into large-scale soybean farms has different effects on local and regional climate than other forms of land use, e.g., conversion to pasture. The bio-geophysical feedbacks that lead to changes in temperature and rainfall caused by the expansion of commodity crops is not fully understood, and this has implications for both modelling potential future climatic change and understanding its impact. Here we performed model simulations to characterize the feedback to climate caused by the replacement of Amazonian forests with soybean and pastures. Our results show that: when compared to deforestation caused by pastures, the conversion of forests into soybean plantations results in more pronounced changes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Because they are characterized by a period of the year with bare soil, soybean fields transmit more long-wave radiation to the atmosphere than pastures, leading to an increase in boundary layer average temperature by 2.4 K. Although soybean plantations tend to strengthen convective lifting, the decrease in boundary layer water vapor content plays a decisive role in reducing rainfall. Finally, we demonstrate that the climatic impacts associated with the replacement of forests by soybean is likely to be magnified with agricultural expansion along new frontiers in the northern and western regions of the Amazon basin due to a more pronounced reduction in water vapor content.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Zhang
- School of Biological Sciences, the University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
| | - Jin Wu
- School of Biological Sciences, the University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
| | | | - Jed O Kaplan
- Department of Earth Sciences and Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Eduardo Eiji Maeda
- University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2, 00014 Helsinki, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, FMI, Finland.
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5
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Butt EW, Baker JCA, Bezerra FGS, von Randow C, Aguiar APD, Spracklen DV. Amazon deforestation causes strong regional warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2309123120. [PMID: 37903256 PMCID: PMC10636322 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2309123120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Tropical deforestation impacts the climate through complex land-atmosphere interactions causing local and regional warming. However, whilst the impacts of deforestation on local temperature are well understood, the regional (nonlocal) response is poorly quantified. Here, we used remote-sensed observations of forest loss and dry season land-surface temperature during the period 2001 to 2020 to demonstrate that deforestation of the Amazon caused strong warming at distances up to 100 km away from the forest loss. We apply a machine learning approach to show nonlocal warming due to forest loss at 2-100 km length scales increases the warming due to deforestation by more than a factor 4, from 0.16 K to 0.71 K for each 10-percentage points of forest loss. We estimate that rapid future deforestation under a strong inequality scenario could cause dry season warming of 0.96 K across Mato Grosso state in southern Brazil over the period 2020 to 2050. Reducing deforestation could reduce future warming caused by forest loss to 0.4 K. Our results demonstrate the contribution of tropical deforestation to regional climate warming and the potential for reduced deforestation to deliver regional climate adaptation and resilience with important implications for sustainable management of the Amazon.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edward W. Butt
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LeedsLS2 9JT, United Kingdom
| | - Jessica C. A. Baker
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LeedsLS2 9JT, United Kingdom
| | | | - Celso von Randow
- INPE - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos12227-010, Brazil
| | - Ana P. D. Aguiar
- INPE - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos12227-010, Brazil
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm106 91, Sweden
| | - Dominick V. Spracklen
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LeedsLS2 9JT, United Kingdom
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Zeng Y, Hao D, Park T, Zhu P, Huete A, Myneni R, Knyazikhin Y, Qi J, Nemani RR, Li F, Huang J, Gao Y, Li B, Ji F, Köhler P, Frankenberg C, Berry JA, Chen M. Structural complexity biases vegetation greenness measures. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1790-1798. [PMID: 37710041 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02187-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
Vegetation 'greenness' characterized by spectral vegetation indices (VIs) is an integrative measure of vegetation leaf abundance, biochemical properties and pigment composition. Surprisingly, satellite observations reveal that several major VIs over the US Corn Belt are higher than those over the Amazon rainforest, despite the forests having a greater leaf area. This contradicting pattern underscores the pressing need to understand the underlying drivers and their impacts to prevent misinterpretations. Here we show that macroscale shadows cast by complex forest structures result in lower greenness measures compared with those cast by structurally simple and homogeneous crops. The shadow-induced contradictory pattern of VIs is inevitable because most Earth-observing satellites do not view the Earth in the solar direction and thus view shadows due to the sun-sensor geometry. The shadow impacts have important implications for the interpretation of VIs and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as measures of global vegetation changes. For instance, a land-conversion process from forests to crops over the Amazon shows notable increases in VIs despite a decrease in leaf area. Our findings highlight the importance of considering shadow impacts to accurately interpret remotely sensed VIs and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence for assessing global vegetation and its changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yelu Zeng
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
| | - Dalei Hao
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.
| | - Taejin Park
- NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, USA
- Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Moffett Field, CA, USA
| | - Peng Zhu
- Department of Geography and Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Alfredo Huete
- Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ranga Myneni
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Yuri Knyazikhin
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jianbo Qi
- Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphere, Toulouse, France
| | - Ramakrishna R Nemani
- NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, USA
- Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Moffett Field, CA, USA
| | - Fa Li
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Jianxi Huang
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Yongyuan Gao
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Baoguo Li
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Fujiang Ji
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | | | | | - Joseph A Berry
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Min Chen
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
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7
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Abera T, Heiskanen J, Maeda E, Odongo V, Pellikka P. Impacts of land cover and management change on top-of-canopy and below-canopy temperatures in Southeastern Kenya. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 874:162560. [PMID: 36870488 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162560] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2022] [Revised: 02/24/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Impacts of land cover conversion have been studied well from the top-of-canopy level using satellite observations. Yet, the warming or cooling impacts of land cover and management change (LCMC) from below-canopy level remain less explored. Here, we studied the below-canopy temperature change from field to landscape level across multiple LCMC in southeastern Kenya. To study this, in situ microclimate sensors, satellite observations, and high-resolution below-canopy temperature modelling approaches were used. Our results show that from field to landscape scale, forest to cropland conversion, followed by thicket to cropland change, generate higher surface temperature warming than other conversion types. At field scale, tree loss increases the mean soil temperature (measured at 6 cm below ground) more than the mean below-canopy surface temperature but its impact on the diurnal temperature range was higher on surface temperature than soil temperature in both forest to cropland and thicket to cropland/grassland conversions. At landscape scale, compared with top-of-canopy land surface temperature warming, which was estimated at Landsat overpass time (∼10:30 a.m.), forest to cropland conversion generates ∼3 °C higher below-canopy surface temperature warming. Land management change, through fencing of wildlife conservation areas and limiting mobility of mega browsers, can have an impact on woody cover and induce more below-canopy surface temperature warming than top-of-canopy in comparison with non-conservancy areas. These results indicate that human induced land changes can generate more below-canopy warming than inferred from top-of-canopy satellite observations. Together, the results highlight the importance of considering the climatic impacts of LCMC from both top-of-canopy and below-canopy level for effective mitigation of anthropogenic warming from land surface changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Temesgen Abera
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, University of Helsinki, Finland; Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Janne Heiskanen
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, University of Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eduardo Maeda
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, University of Helsinki, Finland; Area of Ecology and Biodiversity, Faculty of Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Vincent Odongo
- International Livestock Research Institute, Mazingira Centre, P.O. Box 30709-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Petri Pellikka
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014, University of Helsinki, Finland; Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Finland; State Key Laboratory for Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
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8
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Rodrigues AA, Macedo MN, Silvério DV, Maracahipes L, Coe MT, Brando PM, Shimbo JZ, Rajão R, Soares-Filho B, Bustamante MMC. Cerrado deforestation threatens regional climate and water availability for agriculture and ecosystems. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6807-6822. [PMID: 36073184 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the most biodiverse savannas in the world, yet 46% of its original cover has been cleared to make way for crops and pastures. These extensive land-use transitions (LUTs) are expected to influence regional climate by reducing evapotranspiration (ET), increasing land surface temperature (LST), and ultimately reducing precipitation. Here, we quantify the impacts of LUTs on ET and LST in the Cerrado by combining MODIS satellite data with annual land use and land cover maps from 2006 to 2019. We performed regression analyses to quantify the effects of six common LUTs on ET and LST across the entire gradient of Cerrado landscapes. Results indicate that clearing forests for cropland or pasture increased average LST by ~3.5°C and reduced mean annual ET by 44% and 39%, respectively. Transitions from woody savannas to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 1.9°C and reduced mean annual ET by 27% and 21%, respectively. Converting native grasslands to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 0.9 and 0.6°C, respectively. Conversely, grassland-to-pasture transitions increased mean annual ET by 15%. To date, land changes have caused a 10% reduction in water recycled to the atmosphere annually and a 0.9°C increase in average LST across the biome, compared to the historic baseline under native vegetation. Global climate changes from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will only exacerbate these effects. Considering potential future scenarios, we found that abandoning deforestation control policies or allowing legal deforestation to continue (at least 28.4 Mha) would further reduce yearly ET (by -9% and -3%, respectively) and increase average LST (by +0.7 and +0.3°C, respectively) by 2050. In contrast, policies encouraging zero deforestation and restoration of the 5.2 Mha of illegally deforested areas would partially offset the warming and drying impacts of land-use change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ariane A Rodrigues
- Department of Ecology, University of Brasília, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Marcia N Macedo
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
- Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Divino V Silvério
- Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
- Federal Rural University of the Amazon, Capitão Poço, Pará, Brazil
| | - Leandro Maracahipes
- Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
- Institute of Biology, State University of Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Michael T Coe
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
- Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Paulo M Brando
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
- Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Julia Z Shimbo
- Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Raoni Rajão
- Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Britaldo Soares-Filho
- Center for Remote Sensing, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
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9
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Vaglietti G, Delacote P, Leblois A. Droughts and deforestation: Does seasonality matter? PLoS One 2022; 17:e0276667. [PMID: 36301898 PMCID: PMC9612518 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0276667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Extreme weather events, particularly droughts, have strong impacts on the livelihoods of populations in rural areas. In a context of low access to insurance and credit markets, households respond to such shocks by implementing different risk-management strategies, which in turn are likely to have an impact on the environment, in particular through land-use changes and deforestation. This paper contributes to the emerging literature on the links between droughts and deforestation: (1) distinguishing responses to previously experienced droughts versus current droughts, and (2) disentangling the time of the agricultural season at which droughts occur. We show that deforestation declines whenever a drought occurs during the growing season, while it increases whenever a drought occurs during the harvesting season. These impacts are mitigated within protected areas and are exacerbated in more accessible locations, i.e., areas within 4 hours of travel time of main/major cities. By contrast, deforestation outcomes following droughts that occur during the planting season depend on whether the crop considered is maize or cassava.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giuliaz Vaglietti
- Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech-INRAE, BETA, Nancy Cedex, France
- Climate Economics Chair, Palais Brongniart, Paris, France
- * E-mail:
| | - Philippe Delacote
- Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech-INRAE, BETA, Nancy Cedex, France
- Climate Economics Chair, Palais Brongniart, Paris, France
| | - Antoine Leblois
- Climate Economics Chair, Palais Brongniart, Paris, France
- CEE-M Univ Montpellier, CNRS INRAE Institut Agro, Montpellier, France
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10
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Forest fragmentation impacts the seasonality of Amazonian evergreen canopies. Nat Commun 2022; 13:917. [PMID: 35177619 PMCID: PMC8854568 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28490-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 01/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Predictions of the magnitude and timing of leaf phenology in Amazonian forests remain highly controversial. Here, we use terrestrial LiDAR surveys every two weeks spanning wet and dry seasons in Central Amazonia to show that plant phenology varies strongly across vertical strata in old-growth forests, but is sensitive to disturbances arising from forest fragmentation. In combination with continuous microclimate measurements, we find that when maximum daily temperatures reached 35 °C in the latter part of the dry season, the upper canopy of large trees in undisturbed forests lost plant material. In contrast, the understory greened up with increased light availability driven by the upper canopy loss, alongside increases in solar radiation, even during periods of drier soil and atmospheric conditions. However, persistently high temperatures in forest edges exacerbated the upper canopy losses of large trees throughout the dry season, whereas the understory in these light-rich environments was less dependent on the altered upper canopy structure. Our findings reveal a strong influence of edge effects on phenological controls in wet forests of Central Amazonia. Even evergreen tropical forests can have seasonal dynamics, which may be sensitive to disturbance. Here, the authors combine high-resolution remote sensing observations and microclimate data to show that forest fragmentation impacts canopy phenology dynamics in the Amazon forest.
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11
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Recent Hydrological Droughts in Brazil and Their Impact on Hydropower Generation. WATER 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/w14040601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Brazil has endured the worst droughts in recorded history over the last decade, resulting in severe socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The country is heavily reliant on water resources, with 77.7% of water consumed for agriculture (irrigation and livestock), 9.7% for the industry, and 11.4% for human supply. Hydropower plants generate about 64% of all electricity consumed. The aim of this study was to improve the current state of knowledge regarding hydrological drought patterns in Brazil, hydrometeorological factors, and their effects on the country’s hydroelectric power plants. The results show that since the drought occurred in 2014/2015 over the Southeast region of Brazil, several basins were sharply impacted and remain in a critical condition until now. Following that event, other regions have experienced droughts, with critical rainfall deficit and high temperatures, causing a pronounced impact on water availability in many of the studied basins. Most of the hydropower plants end the 2020–2021 rainy season by operating at a fraction of their total capacity, and thus the country’s hydropower generation was under critical regime.
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12
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Contrasting impacts of forests on cloud cover based on satellite observations. Nat Commun 2022; 13:670. [PMID: 35115519 PMCID: PMC8813950 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28161-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Forests play a pivotal role in regulating climate and sustaining the hydrological cycle. The biophysical impacts of forests on clouds, however, remain unclear. Here, we use satellite data to show that forests in different regions have opposite effects on summer cloud cover. We find enhanced clouds over most temperate and boreal forests but inhibited clouds over Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast US. The spatial variation in the sign of cloud effects is driven by sensible heating, where cloud enhancement is more likely to occur over forests with larger sensible heat, and cloud inhibition over forests with smaller sensible heat. Ongoing forest cover loss has led to cloud increase over forest loss hotspots in the Amazon (+0.78%), Indonesia (+1.19%), and Southeast US (+ 0.09%), but cloud reduction in East Siberia (-0.20%) from 2002-2018. Our data-driven assessment improves mechanistic understanding of forest-cloud interactions, which remain uncertain in Earth system models. How forests influence cloud cover in different regions is not well understood. Here, the authors use satellite data to show that forests enhance clouds over most temperate and boreal forests but inhibited clouds over forests of Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast US relative to nonforest areas.
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13
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Marengo JA, Jimenez JC, Espinoza JC, Cunha AP, Aragão LEO. Increased climate pressure on the agricultural frontier in the Eastern Amazonia-Cerrado transition zone. Sci Rep 2022; 12:457. [PMID: 35013448 PMCID: PMC8748735 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-04241-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Several large-scale drivers of both anthropogenic and natural environmental changes are interacting nonlinearly in the transition zone between eastern Amazonia and the adjacent Cerrado, considered to be another Brazilian agricultural frontier. Land-use change for agrobusiness expansion together with climate change in the transition zone between eastern Amazonia and the adjacent Cerrado may have induced a worsening of severe drought conditions over the last decade. Here we show that the largest warming and drying trends over tropical South America during the last four decades are observed to be precisely in the eastern Amazonia-Cerrado transition region, where they induce delayed wet-season and worsen severe drought conditions over the last decade. Our results evidence an increase in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, subsidence, dry-day frequency, and a decrease in precipitation, humidity, and evaporation, plus a delay in the onset of the wet season, inducing a higher risk of fire during the dry-to-wet transition season. These findings provide observational evidence of the increasing climatic pressure in this area, which is sensitive for global food security, and the need to reconcile agricultural expansion and protection of natural tropical biomes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Juan C Jimenez
- GCU/IPL, Univerdity of Valencia, C/Catedratico Jose Beltran, 46980, Paterna, Valencia, Spain
| | - Jhan-Carlo Espinoza
- Université Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, G-INP, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
| | | | - Luiz E O Aragão
- Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research INPE, Av. dos Astronautas, 1.758, 12227-010, Sao José dos Campos, Brazil
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14
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Wang QJ, Geng Y, Xia XQ. The Impact of Globalization on Forest Growth: Evidence from Multinational Panel Data. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph182412969. [PMID: 34948579 PMCID: PMC8700828 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182412969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2021] [Revised: 12/06/2021] [Accepted: 12/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Even though some existing literature has studied the impact of globalization on forest growth, this research remains inconclusive; moreover, little clarification has emerged as to whether the influence of globalization on forest growth is consistent among different countries. To fill this research gap, we investigated the impact of globalization on forest growth and considered what factors could change the influence of the former upon the latter. To empirically investigate these essential issues, we utilized cross-country data covering 108 countries during the period 1991–2018 to conduct a system generalized method of moment (GMM) estimation. The baseline results confirm the positive impact of globalization on forest growth, which is also supported by several robustness tests, such as changing the measurements and setting new samples. Furthermore, an increase in globalization would bring about higher forest growth. Aside from this, two specific dimensions of globalization, namely economics and trade, can also protect forest growth. Additionally, a higher FDI strengthens the positive impact of globalization on forest growth, while aging, industrial share, and CO2 emissions weaken it. Finally, the impact of globalization on forests is weaker in democracies, emerging markets, and countries with higher fiscal freedoms, while it is stronger in countries with higher political stability. Our study provides substantial policy implications for governments participating in international treaties related to forest growth. The structure of this paper is organized as follows.
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Affiliation(s)
- Quan-Jing Wang
- School of Business, Zhengzhou University, 100 Kexue Road, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
| | - Yong Geng
- School of Environment and Science Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, 800 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200240, China;
| | - Xi-Qiang Xia
- School of Business, Zhengzhou University, 100 Kexue Road, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
- Correspondence:
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Pettorelli N, Graham NAJ, Seddon N, Maria da Cunha Bustamante M, Lowton MJ, Sutherland WJ, Koldewey HJ, Prentice HC, Barlow J. Time to integrate global climate change and biodiversity science‐policy agendas. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13985] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Nathalie Seddon
- Nature‐based Solutions Initiative Department of Zoology University of Oxford Oxford UK
| | | | | | - William J. Sutherland
- Department of Zoology Cambridge University Cambridge UK
- BioRISC (Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine’s) St Catharine’s College Cambridge UK
| | - Heather J. Koldewey
- Conservation and Policy Zoological Society of London London UK
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter Penryn UK
| | | | - Jos Barlow
- Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University Lancaster UK
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