Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations

Are self-reported fertility preferences biased? Evidence from indirect elicitation methods

Desired fertility measures are routinely collected and used by researchers and policy makers, but their self-reported nature raises the possibility of reporting bias. In this paper, we test for the presence of such bias by comparing responses to direct survey questions with indirect questions offering a varying, randomized, degree of confidentiality to respondents in a socioeconomically diverse sample of Nigerian women ([Formula: see text]). We find that women report higher fertility preferences when asked indirectly, but only when their responses afford them complete confidentiality, not when their responses are simply blind to the enumerator. Our results suggest that there may be fewer unintended pregnancies than currently thought and that the effectiveness of family planning policy targeting may be weakened by the bias we uncover. We conclude with suggestions for future work on how to mitigate reporting bias.

How migration shapes modern contraceptive use among urban young women: Evidence from six African countries

BACKGROUND

Internal migration is an important part of the transition to adulthood for many young people in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines how migration, in relation to marriage and parenthood, impacts modern contraceptive use and health facility visits amongst young urban women.

METHODS

We draw on Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) surveys conducted in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda (2019-2022). Our analysis is unique in being able to adjust for whether women wanted to get pregnant soon. Our sample includes women ages 15-24 years currently residing in urban areas (n = 6,225). We conducted logistic regression models clustered by village level identifier to explore the sequence of life events and the timing of migration in relation to current modern contraceptive use and recent health facility visit, a proxy for engagement with formal health services.

RESULTS

The timing of migration matters more than the sequence of these life events. Young urban women who experienced both migration and a birth, regardless of the order, had increased contraceptive use and recent health facility visit, compared to women who had only experienced one event or neither. Young women who migrated in the past year had 24% lower odds of using a modern method (Odds Ratio = 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.63, 0.91), adjusting for demographic factors and adjusting for fertility preference (Wanting to get pregnant soon). Having had a birth was highly significant for health facility visit and among women who had had a birth, those who migrated in the last year had lower odds of a recent visit (OR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.41, 0.89). Results suggest an initially disruptive effect of migration.

DISCUSSION

Our results suggest young women who recently migrated to urban areas may need additional support in accessing contraception and formal health services for themselves or their children.

Assessing Trends in the Desire to Avoid Pregnancy: A Cautionary Note

The desire to avoid pregnancy-to delay the next birth or have no further births-is a fundamental sexual and reproductive health indicator. We show that two readily available measures-prospective fertility preferences and the demand for contraception [Demand] construct-provide substantially different portraits of historical trends. They also yield correspondingly different assessments of the sources of contraceptive change. We argue, with supporting empirical evidence, that Demand enormously overstates the historical trend in the desire to avoid pregnancy because Demand as currently constructed is in part a function of contraceptive prevalence. This makes for "reverse causality" in decompositions of contraceptive change, producing an upward distortion on the order of 25 percentage points in the amount of contraceptive change attributed to a change in fertility desires. Decomposition of contraception change free of the distortion reveals that contraceptive change has been due almost entirely to more complete implementation of fertility preferences. This is explained in part by the surprisingly slight historical change in preferences, a fact we document and then show is a consequence of a historical shift in parity composition toward lower parities.

Are Contraceptive Method Preferences Stable? Measuring Change in the Preferred Method among Kenyan Women

Contraceptive preferences are important for reproductive outcomes, such as contraceptive continuation and pregnancy. Current approaches to measuring reproductive preferences in population surveys are limited to exploring only fertility preferences and implicitly assume that contracepting people are using a method they want. We know that people change their fertility preferences over the life course as a response to life events, but there is no information about changes in contraceptive preferences, given the limited evidence about the measurement and distribution of contraceptive preferences. In this study, we examined the extent of change in women's contraceptive preferences over one year and identified characteristics associated with this change in Kenya using three rounds of nationally representative longitudinal data. Over one year, 18 percent of contraceptive users and 46 percent of contraceptive nonusers reported changes in their preferred contraceptive. Experiencing a pregnancy or birth and changes in marital status were associated with changes in contraceptive preferences for users and nonusers. We found that contraceptive preferences are dynamic, suggesting that family planning programs should ensure people's access to various methods to respond to women's changing circumstances and preferences.

Cameroon's slow fertility transition: A gender perspective

We interrogate the proposition that men's attitudes have constrained the fertility transition in Cameroon, where fertility remains high and contraceptive use low despite much socio-economic progress. We use five Demographic and Health Surveys to compare trends in desired family size among young women and men and analyse matched monogamous couple data from the two most recent surveys to examine wives' and husbands' desires to stop childbearing and their relative influence on current contraceptive use. In 2018, average desired family size was 5.6 and 5.1, for young men and women respectively, and this difference (half a child) has not changed since 1998. Among matched couples, the proportions wanting to stop childbearing were similar in wives and their husbands, but wives perceived husbands to be much more pronatalist than themselves. Surprisingly, men's own reported preferences were more closely associated with contraceptive use than wives' perceptions of husbands' preferences. We discerned little evidence that men's attitudes have impeded reproductive change.

Unmet need and intention to use as predictors of adoption of contraception in 10 Performance Monitoring for Action geographies

The determinants of fertility typically feature demand as the key motivation driver for contraceptive use. Yet relatively little is known about the extent to which demand for contraception predicts future contraceptive use, primarily due to the lack of longitudinal data that captures these measures at different time points. Two ways in which demand is often measured are unmet need and intention to use. Despite its intended use as a population measure, unmet need is commonly used in individual-level analyses and as a marker for individual-level demand for contraception. Few studies have assessed the extent to which unmet need predicts or reflects women's true latent demand as demonstrated by their future contraceptive use; the same is true for intention to use contraception in the future. We expand on previous research to assess whether and the degree to which unmet need and intention to use contraception predict adoption of contraception within a year, among nonusers in ten representative geographies using Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data. Findings show that in nine of ten sites, intention to use within a year was significantly associated with subsequent adoption, while in eight of ten sites, unmet need for spacing or limiting was not associated with adoption. Our results are important for programs as they try to identify true dynamic demand for contraception.

Socio-economic inequalities in non-use of modern contraceptives among young and non-young married women in India

BACKGROUND

It is documented that married women do not utilize contraceptive methods, because of the fear of adverse effects, no or seldom sexual interaction; perception that they should not use contraception during breastfeeding, postpartum amenorrhea, or dissatisfaction with a specific method of contraception. The current study aimed to examine the socio-economic inequalities associated with the non-use of modern contraceptive methods among young (15-24 years) and non-young (25-49 years) married women and the contributing factors in those inequalities.

METHODS

The present study utilized the cross-sectional data from the fourth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) with a sample of 499,627 women who were currently married. The modern methods of family planning include sterilization, injectables, intrauterine devices (IUDs/PPIUDs), contraceptive pills, implants, the standard days method, condoms, diaphragm, foam/jelly, the lactational amenorrhea method, and emergency contraception. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds of non-use of modern contraceptive methods according to different age groups after controlling for various confounding factors. Additionally, concentration curve and Wagstaff decomposition method were used in the study.

RESULTS

The prevalence of non-use of modern contraceptive use was higher among women from young category (79.0%) than non-young category (45.8%). The difference in prevalence was significant (33.2%; p < 0.001). Women from non-young age group had 39% significantly lower odds of non-use of modern contraceptive use than women from young age group (15-24 years) [AOR: 0.23; CI: 0.23, 0.23]. The value of concentration quintile was -0.022 for young and -0.058 for non-young age groups which also confirms that the non-use of modern contraceptives was more concentrated among women from poor socio-economic group and the inequality is higher among non-young women compared to young women. About 87.8 and 55.5% of the socio-economic inequality was explained by wealth quintile for modern contraceptive use in young and non-young women. A higher percent contribution of educational status (56.8%) in socio-economic inequality in non-use of modern contraceptive use was observed in non-young women compared to only -6.4% in young women. Further, the exposure to mass media was a major contributor to socio-economic inequality in young (35.8%) and non-young (43.2%) women.

CONCLUSION

Adverse socioeconomic and cultural factors like low levels of education, no exposure to mass media, lack of or limited knowledge about family planning, poor household wealth status, religion, and ethnicity remain impediments to the use of modern contraceptives. Thus, the current findings provide evidence to promote and enhance the use of modern contraceptives by reducing socioeconomic inequality.

Is the mortality-fertility nexus gendered? A research note on sex differences in the impact of sibling mortality on fertility preferences

Research guided by demographic transition theory has shown that exposure to mortality influences women's fertility preferences and behaviours. Despite the myriad contexts, methodological approaches, and linkages featured in past studies, they have shared a focus on women, leaving questions on the gendered salience of mortality exposures for adults' fertility-related outcomes unanswered. In this research note, we analyse data from three African countries with distinct fertility profiles (Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to examine associations between sibling mortality exposure and ideal family size among women, men, and couples. We also investigate the stability of these associations over time. The associations between adults' sibling mortality exposure and their own and their spouses' ideal family sizes vary across countries. However, the gendered nature of the results in every country and evidence of cross-spousal effects uniformly demonstrate the need to incorporate sex differences into the study of the mortality-fertility link.

Measurement of Unmet Need for Contraception: A Counterfactual Approach

Unmet need plays a critical role in reproductive health research, evaluation, and advocacy. Although conceptually straightforward, its estimation suffers from a number of methodological limitations, most notably its reliance on biased measures of women's stated fertility preferences. We propose a counterfactual-based approach to measuring unmet need at the population level. Using data from 56 countries, we calculate unmet need in a population as the difference between: (1) the observed contraceptive prevalence in the population; and (2) the calculated contraceptive prevalence in a subsample of women who are identified to be from "ideal" family planning environments. Women from "ideal" environments are selected on characteristics that signal their contraceptive autonomy and decision-making over family planning. We find significant differences between our approach and existing methods to calculating unmet need, and we observe variation across countries when comparing indicators. We argue that our indicator of unmet need is preferable to existing population-level indicators due to its independence from biases that are generated from the use of reported preference measures, the simplicity with which it can be derived, and its relevance for cross-country comparisons as well as context-specific analyses.

Social consequences of COVID-19 on fertility preference consistency and contraceptive use among Nigerian women: insights from population-based data

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence from high income countries showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has had negative effects on population and reproductive health behaviour. This study provides a sub-Saharan Africa perspective by documenting the social consequences of COVID-19 and its relationship to fertility preference stability and modern contraceptive use in Nigeria.

METHOD

We analysed panel data collected by Performance Monitoring for Action in Nigeria. Baseline and Follow-up surveys were conducted before the COVID-19 outbreak (November 2019-February 2020) and during the lockdown respectively (May-July 2020). Analysis was restricted to married non-pregnant women during follow-up (n = 774). Descriptive statistics and generalized linear models were employed to explore the relationship between selected social consequences of COVID-19 and fertility preferences stability (between baseline and follow-up) as well as modern contraceptives use.

RESULTS

Reported social consequences of the pandemic lockdown include total loss of household income (31.3%), food insecurity (16.5%), and greater economic reliance on partner (43.0%). Sixty-eight women (8.8%) changed their minds about pregnancy and this was associated with age groups, higher wealth quintile (AOR = 0.38, CI: 0.15-0.97) and household food insecurity (AOR = 2.72, CI: 1.23-5.99). Fertility preference was inconsistent among 26.1%. Women aged 30-34 years (AOR = 4.46, CI:1.29-15.39) were more likely of inconsistent fertility preference compared to 15-24 years. The likelihood was also higher among women with three children compared to those with only one child (AOR = 3.88, CI: 1.36-11.08). During follow-up survey, 59.4% reported they would feel unhappy if pregnant. This was more common among women with tertiary education (AOR = 2.99, CI: 1.41-6.33). The odds increased with parity. The prevalence of modern contraceptive use was 32.8%. Women aged 45-49 years (AOR = 0.24, CI: 0.10-0.56) were less likely to use modern contraceptives than those aged 15-24 years. In contrast, the odds of contraceptive use were significantly higher among those with three (AOR = 1.82, CI: 1.03-3.20), four (AOR = 2.45, CI: 1.36-4.39) and at least five (AOR = 2.89, CI: 1.25-6.74) children. Unhappy disposition towards pregnancy (AOR = 2.48, CI: 1.724-3.58) was also a significant predictor of modern contraceptive use.

CONCLUSION

Some social consequences of COVID-19 affected pregnancy intention and stability of fertility preference but showed no independent association with modern contraceptive use.

The illusion of stable fertility preferences

Fertility preferences have long played a key role in models of fertility differentials and change. We examine the stability of preferences over time using rich panel data on Kenyan women's fertility desires, expectations, actual fertility, and recall of desires in three waves over a nine-year period, when respondents were in their 20s. We find that although desired fertility is quite unstable, most women perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical future scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time but, in fact, such increases in fertility desires are common. Moreover, when asked to recall past desires, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. These patterns of bias are consistent with the emerging view that fertility desires are contextual, emotionally laden, and structured by identity.

Multiple Perspectives on Recent Trends in Unwanted Fertility in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

The last four decades have witnessed large declines in fertility globally. This study uses data from 78 low- and middle-income countries to examine concurrent trends in unwanted fertility. Three measures of unwanted fertility are contrasted: the conventional unwanted total fertility rate, a proposed conditional unwanted fertility rate, and the percentage of births unwanted. Incidence of unwanted births and prevalence of exposure to unwanted births are both derived from answers to questions on prospective fertility preference, recognized as the most valid and reliable survey measure of preferences. Country-level trends are modeled both historically and with the decline in total fertility, with a focus on regional differentials. Results show that unwanted fertility rates-especially the conditional unwanted fertility rate-have declined substantially in recent decades. By contrast, the percentage of births unwanted has declined less, remaining stable or even increasing: from a birth cohort perspective, declines in unwanted fertility have been far more modest than the increased parental success in avoiding unwanted births. The regional patterns suggest that sub-Saharan Africa has several similarities with other major regions but also some peculiar features, including a recent stall in the decline of unwanted fertility that persists after controlling for the stage of fertility transition.

Consistency of the determinants of achieving fertility desires in Ghana: insights from 2003, 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data sets

Sub-Saharan Africa has entered the early stage of the demographic transition with differences in and between countries. The relation between fertility preference and actual fertility is at the core of the demographic changes during the demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa. At the current pace of the demographic transition, overachieved fertility (actual fertility being higher than fertility preference) is more prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa although some women do achieve their fertility preference. Our aim is to assess the trends and identify factors that consistently influence women with completed fertility to achieve their fertility desires in Ghana over a 10-year period. We used secondary data from the 2003, 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys for the analysis. The sample size was restricted to currently married/living in union women aged 45–49 years. The results indicate that underachieved fertility has increased from 25.1% in 2003 to 35.8% in 2014. Similarly, achieved fertility has also increased from 23.8% in 2003 to 26.0% in 2014. On the contrary, overachieved fertility has decreased from 51.1% in 2003 to 38.2% in 2014. The most persistent determinants of achieved fertility relative to overachieved fertility in Ghana during the last three rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys are child survival status, ethnicity and couple’s fertility preference. The study provides support for programmatic interventions targeting improving child survival and regulating men’s fertility preference.

Pregnancy intention data completeness, quality and utility in population-based surveys: EN-INDEPTH study

BACKGROUND

An estimated 40% of pregnancies globally are unintended. Measurement of pregnancy intention in low- and middle-income countries relies heavily on surveys, notably Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), yet few studies have evaluated survey questions. We examined questions for measuring pregnancy intention, which are already in the DHS, and additional questions and investigated associations with maternity care utilisation and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

METHODS

The EN-INDEPTH study surveyed 69,176 women of reproductive age in five Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Ethiopia, Uganda and Bangladesh (2017-2018). We investigated responses to survey questions regarding pregnancy intention in two ways: (i) pregnancy-specific intention and (ii) desired-versus-actual family size. We assessed data completeness for each and level of agreement between the two questions, and with future fertility desire. We analysed associations between pregnancy intention and number and timing of antenatal care visits, place of delivery, and stillbirth, neonatal death and low birthweight.

RESULTS

Missing data were <2% in all questions. Responses to pregnancy-specific questions were more consistent with future fertility desire than desired-versus-actual family size responses. Using the pregnancy-specific questions, 7.4% of women who reported their last pregnancy as unwanted reported wanting more children in the future, compared with 45.1% of women in the corresponding desired family size category. Women reporting unintended pregnancies were less likely to attend 4+ antenatal care visits (aOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.64-0.83), have their first visit during the first trimester (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.63-0.79), and report stillbirths (aOR 0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.73) or neonatal deaths (aOR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.96), compared with women reporting intended pregnancies. We found no associations for desired-versus-actual family size intention.

CONCLUSIONS

We found the pregnancy-specific intention questions to be a much more reliable assessment of pregnancy intention than the desired-versus-actual family size questions, despite a reluctance to report pregnancies as unwanted rather than mistimed. The additional questions were useful and may complement current DHS questions, although these are not the only possibilities. As women with unintended pregnancies were more likely to miss timely and frequent antenatal care, implementation research is required to improve coverage and quality of care for those women.

A Panel Study of Fertility Preferences and Contraceptive Dynamics in the Presence of Competing Pregnancy Risks in Uganda

Although many studies have examined the influence of women's fertility preferences on subsequent fertility behavior and the role of contraceptive use intentions on unmet need, very few have explored their concurrent effects on contraceptive use dynamics. This study examines the independent concurrent effects of women's fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on subsequent adoption and discontinuation, treating pregnancy as a competing risk factor that may alter contraceptive need. The data are derived from a 2018 follow-up survey of a 2014 national sample of 3,800 Ugandan female respondents of childbearing age. The survey included a contraceptive calendar that recorded pregnancy, birth, and contraceptive event episodes, including reasons for discontinuation. We use competing risk regression to estimate the effect of fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on the cumulative incidence function of contraceptive behaviors, accounting for intervening pregnancy, female background covariates, loss to follow-up, and complex survey design. We find that women's contraceptive intentions significantly increase the rate of contraceptive adoption. After having adopted, women's contraceptive intentions have been realized and do not prolong use. The risk of discontinuation among women who adopted after baseline was significantly higher than for those using at baseline, irrespective of their initial intentions. The effectiveness of the type of contraceptive method chosen significantly lowered discontinuation risk. Fertility preferences were not significantly associated with either time to adoption or discontinuation. The pace of the fertility transition in this sub-Saharan African setting is likely being shaped by reproductive regulation through the intentional use of contraception that enables spacing births.

The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires

Persistently high levels of unintended fertility, combined with evidence that over- and underachieved fertility are typical and not exceptional, have prompted researchers to question the utility of fertility desires writ large. In this study, we elaborate this paradox: widespread unintendedness and meaningful, highly predictive fertility desires can and do coexist. Using data from Malawi, we demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires over both four-month and one-year periods. We find that fertility timing desires are highly predictive of pregnancy and that they follow a gradient wherein the likelihood of pregnancy decreases in correspondence with desired time to next birth. This finding holds despite the simultaneous observation of high levels of unintended pregnancy in our sample. Discordance between desires and behaviors reflects constraints to achieving one's fertility and the fluidity of desires but not their irrelevance. Fertility desires remain an essential-if sometimes blunt-tool in the demographers' toolkit.

Meta-analysis of association between il-6-174 g/c polymorphism and female infertility related disorders

Female infertility continues to increase in prevalence annually and factors causing it need to be researched. As IL-6-174 G/C polymorphism is known to alter the plasma levels of IL-6, abnormal levels of IL-6 found in infertile females could be due to genetic reasons. With the understanding of the importance of IL-6 in reproductive physiology, several individual studies done so far to find the association of this polymorphism with female infertility related disorders were systematically combined for meta-analysis. Articles were searched using electronic data base sources and were included based on specific criteria. Finally, eight articles which includes polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS; n = 4), endometriosis (n = 3) and tubal damage (n = 1) were selected for the analysis. Results showed statistically significant heterogeneity across studies under the allele model (p < 0.0001, I² = 78 %) and dominant model (p < 0.00001, I² = 82%) but not under recessive model (p = 0.31, I² = 16%). This difference could be possibly due to variation in ethnicity, lifestyle, age or BMI related factors. The pooled odds ratio under the three genetic models were 0.87(CI = 0.75-1.02), 0.77 (CI = 0.63-0.94) and 1.05 (CI = 0.76-1.46) respectively. Sub group analysis showed statistical significant (P < 0.01) for PCOS under allele and dominant model, but not for endometriosis and tubal damage. By this meta-analysis, we can say that IL-6-174 G/C polymorphism can be considered as a potential genetic marker for PCOS but not for endometriosis and tubal damage disorders. However, more studies with adequate sample sizes are required to be done in endometriosis, tubal disease and other female infertility disorders to arrive at a definite conclusion.

Longitudinal examination of changing fertility intentions and behaviors over a four-year period in urban Senegal

Background

Fertility intentions and contraceptive use are often used to demonstrate gaps in programs and policies to meet the contraceptive needs of women and couples. Prior work demonstrated that fertility intentions are fluid and change over a woman’s (or couple’s) life course with changing marital status, childbearing, and education/employment opportunities. This study uses longitudinal data to better examine the fluidity of women’s fertility intentions and disentangle the complex interrelationships between fertility and contraceptive use.

Methods

Using survey data from three time points and three urban sites in Senegal, this study examines how women’s fertility intentions and contraceptive use in an earlier period affect pregnancy experience and the intentionality of experienced pregnancies among a sample of 1050 women who were in union at all three time points. We apply correlated random effect longitudinal regression methods to predict a subsequent birth by fertility intentions and modern contraceptive use at an earlier period addressing endogeneity concerns of earlier analyses that only include two time periods.

Results

Descriptive results demonstrate some change in fertility desires over time such that 6–8% of women who reported their pregnancy as intended (i.e., wanted to get pregnant at time of pregnancy) reported earlier that they did not want any(more) children. Multivariate analyses demonstrate that women who want to delay or avoid a pregnancy and are using modern contraception are the least likely to get pregnant. Among women who became pregnant, the only factor differentiating whether the pregnancy is reported as intended or unintended (mistimed or unwanted) was prior fertility intention. Women who wanted to delay a pregnancy previously were more likely to report the pregnancy as unintended compared to women who wanted to get pregnant soon.

Conclusions

These results suggest some post-hoc rationalization among women who are getting pregnant. Women who say they do not want to get pregnant may be choosing not to use a contraceptive method in this urban Senegal context of high fertility. Programs seeking to reach these women need to consider their complex situations including their fertility intentions, family planning use, and the community norms within which they are reporting these intentions and behaviors.