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Valente C, Toh WQ, Jalingo I, Lépine A, de Paula Á, Miller G. Are self-reported fertility preferences biased? Evidence from indirect elicitation methods. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2407629121. [PMID: 39136983 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2407629121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2024] [Accepted: 06/24/2024] [Indexed: 08/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Desired fertility measures are routinely collected and used by researchers and policy makers, but their self-reported nature raises the possibility of reporting bias. In this paper, we test for the presence of such bias by comparing responses to direct survey questions with indirect questions offering a varying, randomized, degree of confidentiality to respondents in a socioeconomically diverse sample of Nigerian women ([Formula: see text]). We find that women report higher fertility preferences when asked indirectly, but only when their responses afford them complete confidentiality, not when their responses are simply blind to the enumerator. Our results suggest that there may be fewer unintended pregnancies than currently thought and that the effectiveness of family planning policy targeting may be weakened by the bias we uncover. We conclude with suggestions for future work on how to mitigate reporting bias.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine Valente
- School of Economics, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TU, United Kingdom
| | - Wen Qiang Toh
- Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam 3062, Netherlands
| | - Inuwa Jalingo
- National Population Commission, Abuja P.M.B. 281, Nigeria
| | - Aurélia Lépine
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London WC1N 1EH, United Kingdom
| | - Áureo de Paula
- Department of Economics, University College London, London WC1H 0AN, United Kingdom
- Institute for Fiscal Studies, London WC1E 7AE, United Kingdom
- Cemmap, London WC1E 7AE, United Kingdom
| | - Grant Miller
- Department of Health Policy, Stanford Medical School, Stanford, CA 94305
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398
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Pinchoff J, Pike I, Austrian K, Grace K, Kabiru C. How migration shapes modern contraceptive use among urban young women: Evidence from six African countries. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0307141. [PMID: 39042650 PMCID: PMC11265688 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 07/02/2024] [Indexed: 07/25/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Internal migration is an important part of the transition to adulthood for many young people in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines how migration, in relation to marriage and parenthood, impacts modern contraceptive use and health facility visits amongst young urban women. METHODS We draw on Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) surveys conducted in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda (2019-2022). Our analysis is unique in being able to adjust for whether women wanted to get pregnant soon. Our sample includes women ages 15-24 years currently residing in urban areas (n = 6,225). We conducted logistic regression models clustered by village level identifier to explore the sequence of life events and the timing of migration in relation to current modern contraceptive use and recent health facility visit, a proxy for engagement with formal health services. RESULTS The timing of migration matters more than the sequence of these life events. Young urban women who experienced both migration and a birth, regardless of the order, had increased contraceptive use and recent health facility visit, compared to women who had only experienced one event or neither. Young women who migrated in the past year had 24% lower odds of using a modern method (Odds Ratio = 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.63, 0.91), adjusting for demographic factors and adjusting for fertility preference (Wanting to get pregnant soon). Having had a birth was highly significant for health facility visit and among women who had had a birth, those who migrated in the last year had lower odds of a recent visit (OR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.41, 0.89). Results suggest an initially disruptive effect of migration. DISCUSSION Our results suggest young women who recently migrated to urban areas may need additional support in accessing contraception and formal health services for themselves or their children.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Kathryn Grace
- University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States of America
| | - Caroline Kabiru
- African Population and Health Research Center, Nairobi, Kenya
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Casterline JB, El-Zeini L, Ibitoye M. Assessing Trends in the Desire to Avoid Pregnancy: A Cautionary Note. Stud Fam Plann 2024. [PMID: 39044337 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/25/2024]
Abstract
The desire to avoid pregnancy-to delay the next birth or have no further births-is a fundamental sexual and reproductive health indicator. We show that two readily available measures-prospective fertility preferences and the demand for contraception [Demand] construct-provide substantially different portraits of historical trends. They also yield correspondingly different assessments of the sources of contraceptive change. We argue, with supporting empirical evidence, that Demand enormously overstates the historical trend in the desire to avoid pregnancy because Demand as currently constructed is in part a function of contraceptive prevalence. This makes for "reverse causality" in decompositions of contraceptive change, producing an upward distortion on the order of 25 percentage points in the amount of contraceptive change attributed to a change in fertility desires. Decomposition of contraception change free of the distortion reveals that contraceptive change has been due almost entirely to more complete implementation of fertility preferences. This is explained in part by the surprisingly slight historical change in preferences, a fact we document and then show is a consequence of a historical shift in parity composition toward lower parities.
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Cardona C, Sarnak D, Gemmill A, Gichangi P, Thiongo M, Anglewicz P. Are Contraceptive Method Preferences Stable? Measuring Change in the Preferred Method among Kenyan Women. Stud Fam Plann 2024. [PMID: 39010650 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/17/2024]
Abstract
Contraceptive preferences are important for reproductive outcomes, such as contraceptive continuation and pregnancy. Current approaches to measuring reproductive preferences in population surveys are limited to exploring only fertility preferences and implicitly assume that contracepting people are using a method they want. We know that people change their fertility preferences over the life course as a response to life events, but there is no information about changes in contraceptive preferences, given the limited evidence about the measurement and distribution of contraceptive preferences. In this study, we examined the extent of change in women's contraceptive preferences over one year and identified characteristics associated with this change in Kenya using three rounds of nationally representative longitudinal data. Over one year, 18 percent of contraceptive users and 46 percent of contraceptive nonusers reported changes in their preferred contraceptive. Experiencing a pregnancy or birth and changes in marital status were associated with changes in contraceptive preferences for users and nonusers. We found that contraceptive preferences are dynamic, suggesting that family planning programs should ensure people's access to various methods to respond to women's changing circumstances and preferences.
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Fotso JC, Cleland JG, Adje EO. Cameroon's slow fertility transition: A gender perspective. POPULATION STUDIES 2024; 78:79-91. [PMID: 38470717 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2297687] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2022] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2024]
Abstract
We interrogate the proposition that men's attitudes have constrained the fertility transition in Cameroon, where fertility remains high and contraceptive use low despite much socio-economic progress. We use five Demographic and Health Surveys to compare trends in desired family size among young women and men and analyse matched monogamous couple data from the two most recent surveys to examine wives' and husbands' desires to stop childbearing and their relative influence on current contraceptive use. In 2018, average desired family size was 5.6 and 5.1, for young men and women respectively, and this difference (half a child) has not changed since 1998. Among matched couples, the proportions wanting to stop childbearing were similar in wives and their husbands, but wives perceived husbands to be much more pronatalist than themselves. Surprisingly, men's own reported preferences were more closely associated with contraceptive use than wives' perceptions of husbands' preferences. We discerned little evidence that men's attitudes have impeded reproductive change.
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Sarnak D, Anglewicz P, Ahmed S. Unmet need and intention to use as predictors of adoption of contraception in 10 Performance Monitoring for Action geographies. SSM Popul Health 2023; 22:101365. [PMID: 36909928 PMCID: PMC9996096 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101365] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2022] [Revised: 01/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The determinants of fertility typically feature demand as the key motivation driver for contraceptive use. Yet relatively little is known about the extent to which demand for contraception predicts future contraceptive use, primarily due to the lack of longitudinal data that captures these measures at different time points. Two ways in which demand is often measured are unmet need and intention to use. Despite its intended use as a population measure, unmet need is commonly used in individual-level analyses and as a marker for individual-level demand for contraception. Few studies have assessed the extent to which unmet need predicts or reflects women's true latent demand as demonstrated by their future contraceptive use; the same is true for intention to use contraception in the future. We expand on previous research to assess whether and the degree to which unmet need and intention to use contraception predict adoption of contraception within a year, among nonusers in ten representative geographies using Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data. Findings show that in nine of ten sites, intention to use within a year was significantly associated with subsequent adoption, while in eight of ten sites, unmet need for spacing or limiting was not associated with adoption. Our results are important for programs as they try to identify true dynamic demand for contraception.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dana Sarnak
- Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA
| | - Phil Anglewicz
- Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA
| | - Saifuddin Ahmed
- Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA
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Srivastava S, Mohanty P, Muhammad T, Kumar M. Socio-economic inequalities in non-use of modern contraceptives among young and non-young married women in India. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:797. [PMID: 37127678 PMCID: PMC10150497 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15669-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2022] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND It is documented that married women do not utilize contraceptive methods, because of the fear of adverse effects, no or seldom sexual interaction; perception that they should not use contraception during breastfeeding, postpartum amenorrhea, or dissatisfaction with a specific method of contraception. The current study aimed to examine the socio-economic inequalities associated with the non-use of modern contraceptive methods among young (15-24 years) and non-young (25-49 years) married women and the contributing factors in those inequalities. METHODS The present study utilized the cross-sectional data from the fourth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) with a sample of 499,627 women who were currently married. The modern methods of family planning include sterilization, injectables, intrauterine devices (IUDs/PPIUDs), contraceptive pills, implants, the standard days method, condoms, diaphragm, foam/jelly, the lactational amenorrhea method, and emergency contraception. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds of non-use of modern contraceptive methods according to different age groups after controlling for various confounding factors. Additionally, concentration curve and Wagstaff decomposition method were used in the study. RESULTS The prevalence of non-use of modern contraceptive use was higher among women from young category (79.0%) than non-young category (45.8%). The difference in prevalence was significant (33.2%; p < 0.001). Women from non-young age group had 39% significantly lower odds of non-use of modern contraceptive use than women from young age group (15-24 years) [AOR: 0.23; CI: 0.23, 0.23]. The value of concentration quintile was -0.022 for young and -0.058 for non-young age groups which also confirms that the non-use of modern contraceptives was more concentrated among women from poor socio-economic group and the inequality is higher among non-young women compared to young women. About 87.8 and 55.5% of the socio-economic inequality was explained by wealth quintile for modern contraceptive use in young and non-young women. A higher percent contribution of educational status (56.8%) in socio-economic inequality in non-use of modern contraceptive use was observed in non-young women compared to only -6.4% in young women. Further, the exposure to mass media was a major contributor to socio-economic inequality in young (35.8%) and non-young (43.2%) women. CONCLUSION Adverse socioeconomic and cultural factors like low levels of education, no exposure to mass media, lack of or limited knowledge about family planning, poor household wealth status, religion, and ethnicity remain impediments to the use of modern contraceptives. Thus, the current findings provide evidence to promote and enhance the use of modern contraceptives by reducing socioeconomic inequality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shobhit Srivastava
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, 400088, India
| | - Parimala Mohanty
- Institute of Medical Sciences & Sum Hospital, Siksha "O" Anusandhan Deemed to Be University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - T Muhammad
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, 400088, India.
| | - Manish Kumar
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, 400088, India
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Smith-Greenaway E, Lin Y. Is the mortality-fertility nexus gendered? A research note on sex differences in the impact of sibling mortality on fertility preferences. POPULATION STUDIES 2023; 77:141-151. [PMID: 36748425 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2168036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
Research guided by demographic transition theory has shown that exposure to mortality influences women's fertility preferences and behaviours. Despite the myriad contexts, methodological approaches, and linkages featured in past studies, they have shared a focus on women, leaving questions on the gendered salience of mortality exposures for adults' fertility-related outcomes unanswered. In this research note, we analyse data from three African countries with distinct fertility profiles (Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to examine associations between sibling mortality exposure and ideal family size among women, men, and couples. We also investigate the stability of these associations over time. The associations between adults' sibling mortality exposure and their own and their spouses' ideal family sizes vary across countries. However, the gendered nature of the results in every country and evidence of cross-spousal effects uniformly demonstrate the need to incorporate sex differences into the study of the mortality-fertility link.
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Karra M. Measurement of Unmet Need for Contraception: A Counterfactual Approach. Stud Fam Plann 2022; 53:657-680. [PMID: 36495077 PMCID: PMC10107817 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Unmet need plays a critical role in reproductive health research, evaluation, and advocacy. Although conceptually straightforward, its estimation suffers from a number of methodological limitations, most notably its reliance on biased measures of women's stated fertility preferences. We propose a counterfactual-based approach to measuring unmet need at the population level. Using data from 56 countries, we calculate unmet need in a population as the difference between: (1) the observed contraceptive prevalence in the population; and (2) the calculated contraceptive prevalence in a subsample of women who are identified to be from "ideal" family planning environments. Women from "ideal" environments are selected on characteristics that signal their contraceptive autonomy and decision-making over family planning. We find significant differences between our approach and existing methods to calculating unmet need, and we observe variation across countries when comparing indicators. We argue that our indicator of unmet need is preferable to existing population-level indicators due to its independence from biases that are generated from the use of reported preference measures, the simplicity with which it can be derived, and its relevance for cross-country comparisons as well as context-specific analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahesh Karra
- is an Assistant Professor of Global Development Policy at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, 152 Bay State Road, Room G04C, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
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Akinyemi JO, Dipeolu OI, Adebayo AM, Gbadebo BM, Ajuwon GA, Olowolafe TA, Adewoyin Y, Odimegwu CO. Social consequences of COVID-19 on fertility preference consistency and contraceptive use among Nigerian women: insights from population-based data. Contracept Reprod Med 2022; 7:14. [PMID: 35915478 PMCID: PMC9343223 DOI: 10.1186/s40834-022-00181-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Emerging evidence from high income countries showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has had negative effects on population and reproductive health behaviour. This study provides a sub-Saharan Africa perspective by documenting the social consequences of COVID-19 and its relationship to fertility preference stability and modern contraceptive use in Nigeria. METHOD We analysed panel data collected by Performance Monitoring for Action in Nigeria. Baseline and Follow-up surveys were conducted before the COVID-19 outbreak (November 2019-February 2020) and during the lockdown respectively (May-July 2020). Analysis was restricted to married non-pregnant women during follow-up (n = 774). Descriptive statistics and generalized linear models were employed to explore the relationship between selected social consequences of COVID-19 and fertility preferences stability (between baseline and follow-up) as well as modern contraceptives use. RESULTS Reported social consequences of the pandemic lockdown include total loss of household income (31.3%), food insecurity (16.5%), and greater economic reliance on partner (43.0%). Sixty-eight women (8.8%) changed their minds about pregnancy and this was associated with age groups, higher wealth quintile (AOR = 0.38, CI: 0.15-0.97) and household food insecurity (AOR = 2.72, CI: 1.23-5.99). Fertility preference was inconsistent among 26.1%. Women aged 30-34 years (AOR = 4.46, CI:1.29-15.39) were more likely of inconsistent fertility preference compared to 15-24 years. The likelihood was also higher among women with three children compared to those with only one child (AOR = 3.88, CI: 1.36-11.08). During follow-up survey, 59.4% reported they would feel unhappy if pregnant. This was more common among women with tertiary education (AOR = 2.99, CI: 1.41-6.33). The odds increased with parity. The prevalence of modern contraceptive use was 32.8%. Women aged 45-49 years (AOR = 0.24, CI: 0.10-0.56) were less likely to use modern contraceptives than those aged 15-24 years. In contrast, the odds of contraceptive use were significantly higher among those with three (AOR = 1.82, CI: 1.03-3.20), four (AOR = 2.45, CI: 1.36-4.39) and at least five (AOR = 2.89, CI: 1.25-6.74) children. Unhappy disposition towards pregnancy (AOR = 2.48, CI: 1.724-3.58) was also a significant predictor of modern contraceptive use. CONCLUSION Some social consequences of COVID-19 affected pregnancy intention and stability of fertility preference but showed no independent association with modern contraceptive use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua O Akinyemi
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. .,Infectious Diseases Institute, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. .,Demography and Population Studies Programme, Schools of Public Health and Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
| | - Oluwafemi I Dipeolu
- Department of Health Promotion and Education, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Ayodeji M Adebayo
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Babatunde M Gbadebo
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Grace A Ajuwon
- E.Latunde Odeku Medical Library, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Tubosun A Olowolafe
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Yemi Adewoyin
- Demography and Population Studies Programme, Schools of Public Health and Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Department of Geography, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria
| | - Clifford O Odimegwu
- Demography and Population Studies Programme, Schools of Public Health and Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Müller MW, Hamory J, Johnson-Hanks J, Miguel E. The illusion of stable fertility preferences. POPULATION STUDIES 2022; 76:169-189. [PMID: 35576966 PMCID: PMC9256780 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2057577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2021] [Accepted: 02/04/2022] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Fertility preferences have long played a key role in models of fertility differentials and change. We examine the stability of preferences over time using rich panel data on Kenyan women's fertility desires, expectations, actual fertility, and recall of desires in three waves over a nine-year period, when respondents were in their 20s. We find that although desired fertility is quite unstable, most women perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical future scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time but, in fact, such increases in fertility desires are common. Moreover, when asked to recall past desires, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. These patterns of bias are consistent with the emerging view that fertility desires are contextual, emotionally laden, and structured by identity.
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Casterline JB, El-Zeini LO. Multiple Perspectives on Recent Trends in Unwanted Fertility in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Demography 2021; 59:371-388. [PMID: 34904156 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-9644472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
The last four decades have witnessed large declines in fertility globally. This study uses data from 78 low- and middle-income countries to examine concurrent trends in unwanted fertility. Three measures of unwanted fertility are contrasted: the conventional unwanted total fertility rate, a proposed conditional unwanted fertility rate, and the percentage of births unwanted. Incidence of unwanted births and prevalence of exposure to unwanted births are both derived from answers to questions on prospective fertility preference, recognized as the most valid and reliable survey measure of preferences. Country-level trends are modeled both historically and with the decline in total fertility, with a focus on regional differentials. Results show that unwanted fertility rates-especially the conditional unwanted fertility rate-have declined substantially in recent decades. By contrast, the percentage of births unwanted has declined less, remaining stable or even increasing: from a birth cohort perspective, declines in unwanted fertility have been far more modest than the increased parental success in avoiding unwanted births. The regional patterns suggest that sub-Saharan Africa has several similarities with other major regions but also some peculiar features, including a recent stall in the decline of unwanted fertility that persists after controlling for the stage of fertility transition.
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Affiliation(s)
- John B Casterline
- Institute for Population Research, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Laila O El-Zeini
- Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
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Yeboah I, Kwankye SO, Frempong-Ainguah F. Consistency of the determinants of achieving fertility desires in Ghana: insights from 2003, 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data sets. GENUS 2021. [DOI: 10.1186/s41118-021-00137-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
AbstractSub-Saharan Africa has entered the early stage of the demographic transition with differences in and between countries. The relation between fertility preference and actual fertility is at the core of the demographic changes during the demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa. At the current pace of the demographic transition, overachieved fertility (actual fertility being higher than fertility preference) is more prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa although some women do achieve their fertility preference. Our aim is to assess the trends and identify factors that consistently influence women with completed fertility to achieve their fertility desires in Ghana over a 10-year period. We used secondary data from the 2003, 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys for the analysis. The sample size was restricted to currently married/living in union women aged 45–49 years. The results indicate that underachieved fertility has increased from 25.1% in 2003 to 35.8% in 2014. Similarly, achieved fertility has also increased from 23.8% in 2003 to 26.0% in 2014. On the contrary, overachieved fertility has decreased from 51.1% in 2003 to 38.2% in 2014. The most persistent determinants of achieved fertility relative to overachieved fertility in Ghana during the last three rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys are child survival status, ethnicity and couple’s fertility preference. The study provides support for programmatic interventions targeting improving child survival and regulating men’s fertility preference.
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Yargawa J, Machiyama K, Ponce Hardy V, Enuameh Y, Galiwango E, Gelaye K, Mahmud K, Thysen SM, Kadengye DT, Gordeev VS, Blencowe H, Lawn JE, Baschieri A, Cleland J. Pregnancy intention data completeness, quality and utility in population-based surveys: EN-INDEPTH study. Popul Health Metr 2021; 19:6. [PMID: 33557851 PMCID: PMC7869206 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-020-00227-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND An estimated 40% of pregnancies globally are unintended. Measurement of pregnancy intention in low- and middle-income countries relies heavily on surveys, notably Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), yet few studies have evaluated survey questions. We examined questions for measuring pregnancy intention, which are already in the DHS, and additional questions and investigated associations with maternity care utilisation and adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS The EN-INDEPTH study surveyed 69,176 women of reproductive age in five Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Ethiopia, Uganda and Bangladesh (2017-2018). We investigated responses to survey questions regarding pregnancy intention in two ways: (i) pregnancy-specific intention and (ii) desired-versus-actual family size. We assessed data completeness for each and level of agreement between the two questions, and with future fertility desire. We analysed associations between pregnancy intention and number and timing of antenatal care visits, place of delivery, and stillbirth, neonatal death and low birthweight. RESULTS Missing data were <2% in all questions. Responses to pregnancy-specific questions were more consistent with future fertility desire than desired-versus-actual family size responses. Using the pregnancy-specific questions, 7.4% of women who reported their last pregnancy as unwanted reported wanting more children in the future, compared with 45.1% of women in the corresponding desired family size category. Women reporting unintended pregnancies were less likely to attend 4+ antenatal care visits (aOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.64-0.83), have their first visit during the first trimester (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.63-0.79), and report stillbirths (aOR 0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.73) or neonatal deaths (aOR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.96), compared with women reporting intended pregnancies. We found no associations for desired-versus-actual family size intention. CONCLUSIONS We found the pregnancy-specific intention questions to be a much more reliable assessment of pregnancy intention than the desired-versus-actual family size questions, despite a reluctance to report pregnancies as unwanted rather than mistimed. The additional questions were useful and may complement current DHS questions, although these are not the only possibilities. As women with unintended pregnancies were more likely to miss timely and frequent antenatal care, implementation research is required to improve coverage and quality of care for those women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Judith Yargawa
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kazuyo Machiyama
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Victoria Ponce Hardy
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Yeetey Enuameh
- Kintampo Health Research Centre, Kintampo, Ghana
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Edward Galiwango
- IgangaMayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Makerere University Centre for Health and Population Research, Makerere, Uganda
| | - Kassahun Gelaye
- Dabat Research Centre Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Dabat, Ethiopia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Kaiser Mahmud
- Health Systems and Population Studies Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Sanne M. Thysen
- Bandim Health Project, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
- Research Centre for Vitamins and Vaccines, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Research Open Patient data Explorative Network (OPEN), University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | - Damazo T. Kadengye
- Data, Measurement and Evaluation Unit, African Population and Health Research Centre, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Vladimir Sergeevich Gordeev
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Institute of Population Health Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Hannah Blencowe
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Joy E. Lawn
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Angela Baschieri
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - John Cleland
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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15
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Sarnak DO, Tsui A, Makumbi F, Kibira SPS, Ahmed S. A Panel Study of Fertility Preferences and Contraceptive Dynamics in the Presence of Competing Pregnancy Risks in Uganda. Demography 2021; 58:295-320. [PMID: 33834246 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-8937285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Although many studies have examined the influence of women's fertility preferences on subsequent fertility behavior and the role of contraceptive use intentions on unmet need, very few have explored their concurrent effects on contraceptive use dynamics. This study examines the independent concurrent effects of women's fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on subsequent adoption and discontinuation, treating pregnancy as a competing risk factor that may alter contraceptive need. The data are derived from a 2018 follow-up survey of a 2014 national sample of 3,800 Ugandan female respondents of childbearing age. The survey included a contraceptive calendar that recorded pregnancy, birth, and contraceptive event episodes, including reasons for discontinuation. We use competing risk regression to estimate the effect of fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on the cumulative incidence function of contraceptive behaviors, accounting for intervening pregnancy, female background covariates, loss to follow-up, and complex survey design. We find that women's contraceptive intentions significantly increase the rate of contraceptive adoption. After having adopted, women's contraceptive intentions have been realized and do not prolong use. The risk of discontinuation among women who adopted after baseline was significantly higher than for those using at baseline, irrespective of their initial intentions. The effectiveness of the type of contraceptive method chosen significantly lowered discontinuation risk. Fertility preferences were not significantly associated with either time to adoption or discontinuation. The pace of the fertility transition in this sub-Saharan African setting is likely being shaped by reproductive regulation through the intentional use of contraception that enables spacing births.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dana O Sarnak
- Population, Family and Reproductive Health Department, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Amy Tsui
- Population, Family and Reproductive Health Department, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Fredrick Makumbi
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics Department, School of Public Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Simon Peter Sebina Kibira
- Community Health and Behavioral Sciences Department, School of Public Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Saifuddin Ahmed
- Population, Family and Reproductive Health Department, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
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16
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Abstract
Persistently high levels of unintended fertility, combined with evidence that over- and underachieved fertility are typical and not exceptional, have prompted researchers to question the utility of fertility desires writ large. In this study, we elaborate this paradox: widespread unintendedness and meaningful, highly predictive fertility desires can and do coexist. Using data from Malawi, we demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires over both four-month and one-year periods. We find that fertility timing desires are highly predictive of pregnancy and that they follow a gradient wherein the likelihood of pregnancy decreases in correspondence with desired time to next birth. This finding holds despite the simultaneous observation of high levels of unintended pregnancy in our sample. Discordance between desires and behaviors reflects constraints to achieving one's fertility and the fluidity of desires but not their irrelevance. Fertility desires remain an essential-if sometimes blunt-tool in the demographers' toolkit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Yeatman
- Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Campus Box 188, PO Box 173364, Denver, CO, 80217, USA.
- University of Colorado Population Center, Boulder, CO, USA.
| | | | - Sarah Garver
- Sociology Department, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
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17
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Benjamin JJ, Koshy T, Kumar KM, Maruthy KN, Padmavathi R. Meta-analysis of association between il-6-174 g/c polymorphism and female infertility related disorders. J Reprod Immunol 2020; 140:103134. [PMID: 32402924 DOI: 10.1016/j.jri.2020.103134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2020] [Revised: 04/08/2020] [Accepted: 04/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Female infertility continues to increase in prevalence annually and factors causing it need to be researched. As IL-6-174 G/C polymorphism is known to alter the plasma levels of IL-6, abnormal levels of IL-6 found in infertile females could be due to genetic reasons. With the understanding of the importance of IL-6 in reproductive physiology, several individual studies done so far to find the association of this polymorphism with female infertility related disorders were systematically combined for meta-analysis. Articles were searched using electronic data base sources and were included based on specific criteria. Finally, eight articles which includes polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS; n = 4), endometriosis (n = 3) and tubal damage (n = 1) were selected for the analysis. Results showed statistically significant heterogeneity across studies under the allele model (p < 0.0001, I2 = 78 %) and dominant model (p < 0.00001, I2 = 82%) but not under recessive model (p = 0.31, I2 = 16%). This difference could be possibly due to variation in ethnicity, lifestyle, age or BMI related factors. The pooled odds ratio under the three genetic models were 0.87(CI = 0.75-1.02), 0.77 (CI = 0.63-0.94) and 1.05 (CI = 0.76-1.46) respectively. Sub group analysis showed statistical significant (P < 0.01) for PCOS under allele and dominant model, but not for endometriosis and tubal damage. By this meta-analysis, we can say that IL-6-174 G/C polymorphism can be considered as a potential genetic marker for PCOS but not for endometriosis and tubal damage disorders. However, more studies with adequate sample sizes are required to be done in endometriosis, tubal disease and other female infertility disorders to arrive at a definite conclusion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiby Jolly Benjamin
- Department of Physiology, Sri Ramachandra Medical College and Research Institute, Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research (SRIHER), Porur, Chennai-600116
| | - Teena Koshy
- Department of Human Genetics, Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research, Porur, Chennai-600116
| | - K Mahesh Kumar
- Department of Biochemistry and physiology, Government Yoga and Naturopathy Medical College and Hospital, Chennai-600106
| | | | - R Padmavathi
- Associate Dean - PG studies & Professor, Department of Physiology, Sri Ramachandra Medical College and Research Institute, Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research(SRIHER), Porur, Chennai-600116.
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18
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Speizer IS, Escamilla V, Lance PM, Guilkey DK. Longitudinal examination of changing fertility intentions and behaviors over a four-year period in urban Senegal. Reprod Health 2020; 17:38. [PMID: 32183890 PMCID: PMC7077111 DOI: 10.1186/s12978-020-0893-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2019] [Accepted: 03/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Fertility intentions and contraceptive use are often used to demonstrate gaps in programs and policies to meet the contraceptive needs of women and couples. Prior work demonstrated that fertility intentions are fluid and change over a woman’s (or couple’s) life course with changing marital status, childbearing, and education/employment opportunities. This study uses longitudinal data to better examine the fluidity of women’s fertility intentions and disentangle the complex interrelationships between fertility and contraceptive use. Methods Using survey data from three time points and three urban sites in Senegal, this study examines how women’s fertility intentions and contraceptive use in an earlier period affect pregnancy experience and the intentionality of experienced pregnancies among a sample of 1050 women who were in union at all three time points. We apply correlated random effect longitudinal regression methods to predict a subsequent birth by fertility intentions and modern contraceptive use at an earlier period addressing endogeneity concerns of earlier analyses that only include two time periods. Results Descriptive results demonstrate some change in fertility desires over time such that 6–8% of women who reported their pregnancy as intended (i.e., wanted to get pregnant at time of pregnancy) reported earlier that they did not want any(more) children. Multivariate analyses demonstrate that women who want to delay or avoid a pregnancy and are using modern contraception are the least likely to get pregnant. Among women who became pregnant, the only factor differentiating whether the pregnancy is reported as intended or unintended (mistimed or unwanted) was prior fertility intention. Women who wanted to delay a pregnancy previously were more likely to report the pregnancy as unintended compared to women who wanted to get pregnant soon. Conclusions These results suggest some post-hoc rationalization among women who are getting pregnant. Women who say they do not want to get pregnant may be choosing not to use a contraceptive method in this urban Senegal context of high fertility. Programs seeking to reach these women need to consider their complex situations including their fertility intentions, family planning use, and the community norms within which they are reporting these intentions and behaviors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ilene S Speizer
- Department of Maternal and Child Health, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA. .,Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 123 W. Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA.
| | - Veronica Escamilla
- Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 123 W. Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA
| | - Peter M Lance
- Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 123 W. Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA
| | - David K Guilkey
- Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 123 W. Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA.,Department of Economics, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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