Firth's penalized method in Cox proportional hazard framework for developing predictive models for sparse or heavily censored survival data

Disparities in alcohol- and substance-related hospitalizations and deaths across sexual orientations in Canada: a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

We aim to quantify disparities in substance-related acute events (i.e. hospitalizations and deaths for substances, including alcohol, cannabis, opioids, narcotics, and/or illicit drugs) across sexual orientations based on health administrative data.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a longitudinal analysis from six waves of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2009-2014) linked to hospitalization/mortality data in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

The study sample consisted of survey respondents aged ≥15 (weighted n = 15,406,000) who provided a valid response to the question about sexual orientation. The primary outcome was substance-related acute events, including hospitalizations and deaths due to alcohol, cannabis, opioids, narcotics, and/or illicit drugs. Disparities in substance-related acute events across sexual orientation and gender were examined using flexible parametric survival analysis.

RESULTS

Bisexual women had hazard ratios of 2.46 (95% confidence interval: 1.46-4.15) for any substance-related acute event and 2.67 (95% confidence interval: 1.42-5.00) for non-alcohol substance acute events compared to heterosexual women. Lesbian women did not exhibit significant differences in acute event risk compared to heterosexual women. Gay and bisexual men demonstrated elevated but not statistically significant risks compared to heterosexual men.

CONCLUSIONS

Bisexual women face higher risks of substance-related acute events, potentially due to self-medication of unique stressors brought on by discrimination and isolation. Enhanced education and training for healthcare professionals are essential to increase awareness and sensitivity toward the heightened substance use risk among lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals. Targeted interventions aimed at reducing substance use problems among bisexual individuals warrant increased funding and research.

PNPLA3 genotypes modify the adverse effect of the total energy intake on high-risk nonalcoholic steatohepatitis development

BACKGROUND

The relationship between diet and risk genotypes in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) development and fibrosis progression in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the effects of diet on NASH development and fibrosis progression in patients with NAFLD stratified by the PNPLA3 genotype.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study in a cohort of patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD. Histologic deterioration was obtained using serial transient elastography at every 1 or 2 y. The primary outcome was fibrosis progression, and the secondary outcome was development of high-risk NASH, defined as FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase score ≥0.67 during the follow-up of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver at the baseline. Dietary intake was evaluated using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire.

RESULTS

The primary outcome was observed in 42 (29.0%) of the 145 patients during a median follow-up of 49 mo; neither the total energy intake nor each macronutrient intake significantly affected the primary outcome occurrence. Conversely, the total energy intake (HR per 1-SD: 3.03; 95% CI: 1.31, 7.01) and the PNPLA3 rs738409 genotype [HR per 1 risk allele (G): 2.06; 95% CI: 1.11, 3.83)] were independent risk factors for high-risk NASH. The significant interaction between the total energy intake and PNPLA3 genotype was noted in developing high-risk NASH (P = 0.044). As the number of PNPLA3 risk alleles decreased, the effect of the total energy intake on high-risk NASH increased; the HR per 1-SD increment in total energy intake was 1.52 (95% CI: 0.42, 5.42), 3.54 (95% CI: 1.23, 10.18), and 8.27 (95% CI: 1.20, 57.23) for the GG, CG, and CC genotypes, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The total energy intake adversely affected the development of high-risk NASH in patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD. The effect was more prominent in patients without the PNPLA3 risk allele, highlighting the importance of personalized dietary interventions in NAFLD treatment.

Developmental predictors of young adult borderline personality disorder: a prospective, longitudinal study of females with and without childhood ADHD

BACKGROUND

Research on the precursors of borderline personality disorder (BPD) reveals numerous child and adolescent risk factors, with impulsivity and trauma among the most salient. Yet few prospective longitudinal studies have examined pathways to BPD, particularly with inclusion of multiple risk domains.

METHODS

We examined theory-informed predictors of young-adult BPD (a) diagnosis and (b) dimensional features from childhood and late adolescence via a diverse (47% non-white) sample of females with (n = 140) and without (n = 88) carefully diagnosed childhood attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

RESULTS

After adjustment for key covariates, low levels of objectively measured executive functioning in childhood predicted young adult BPD diagnostic status, as did a cumulative history of childhood adverse experiences/trauma. Additionally, both childhood hyperactivity/impulsivity and childhood adverse experiences/trauma predicted young adult BPD dimensional features. Regarding late-adolescent predictors, no significant predictors emerged regarding BPD diagnosis, but internalizing and externalizing symptoms were each significant predictors of BPD dimensional features. Exploratory moderator analyses revealed that predictions to BPD dimensional features from low executive functioning were heightened in the presence of low socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSIONS

Given our sample size, caution is needed when drawing implications. Possible future directions include focus on preventive interventions in populations with enhanced risk for BPD, particularly those focused on improving executive functioning skills and reducing risk for trauma (and its manifestations). Replication is required, as are sensitive measures of early emotional invalidation and extensions to male samples.

An Exploratory Investigation of Childhood Sexual Abuse and Other Theory-Driven Predictors of Sex Work Among Women with and without Childhood ADHD

Limited research has identified prospective risk factors for young-adult sex work or examined overlapping predictors concurrently. We investigated childhood sexual abuse (CSA), along with other theory-driven predictors of sex work, among a well-characterized sample of girls with and without childhood diagnoses of attention/deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

METHODS

Participants were a racially and socioeconomically diverse sample of 140 girls with rigorously diagnosed ADHD (47 Inattentive [ADHD-I], 93 Combined [ADHD-C]), and 88 age- and ethnicity-matched comparison girls, all followed longitudinally into adulthood. Self-report data on young-adult occupations revealed a subsample of 7 participants reporting engagement in "sex work" or "prostitution." Logistic regressions tested whether CSA, measured both dichotomously and by discrete age ranges, predicted later sex work, accounting for other risk factors.

RESULTS

A lifetime history of CSA was positively associated with sex work in initial analyses (β = 1.51, p = .045), but not after adjusting for additional risk factors. When examined by age ranges, only CSA occurring between ages 9-15 significantly predicted sex work (β = 2.84, p = .043), even after adjusting for additional risk factors. Childhood ADHD-C also emerged as a significant predictor (β = 4.94, p = .015). ADHD-related medication and years of education were protective factors only when CSA was considered dichotomously.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this exploratory study underscore the need for longitudinal research that (a) considers the developmental timing of CSA and (b) accounts for impulsivity and inattention as risk factors for sex work among young-adult women. Implications for clinical practice are briefly discussed.

Immune-mediated diseases and subsequent risk of alopecia areata in a prospective study of US women

INTRODUCTION

Alopecia areata (AA) is the most common form of immune-mediated hair loss. Studies have begun to establish the most frequent comorbid diseases of AA; however, results have been inconsistent with few prospective studies.

METHODS

A total of 63,692 women in the Nurses' Health Study, 53-80 years, were prospectively followed from 2002 to 2014 to determine whether history of immune-mediated disease was associated with AA risk. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AA in relation to immune-mediated conditions were computed using Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for AA risk factors.

RESULTS

133 AA cases were identified during follow-up. Personal history of any immune-mediated disease was associated with increased AA risk (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.24-2.37). History of systemic lupus erythematosus (HR 5.43, 95% CI 2.11-13.97), multiple sclerosis (HR 4.10, 95% CI 1.40-11.96), vitiligo (HR 3.13, 95% CI 1.08-9.10), psoriasis (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.00-4.03), hypothyroidism (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.30-2.71), and rheumatoid arthritis (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.09-2.52) were associated with increased AA risk. History of inflammatory bowel disease or Graves' disease/hyperthyroidism was not significantly associated with AA risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective study, personal history of immune-mediated diseases either individually or overall was associated with increased AA risk.

Cohort Study of Race/Ethnicity and Incident Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma Characterized by Autonomously Determined Visual Field Loss Patterns

Purpose

We evaluated racial/ethnic differences in primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) defined by machine-learning–derived regional visual field (VF) loss patterns.

Methods

Participants (N = 209,036) from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS; 1980–2018), Nurses’ Health Study II (NHS2; 1989–2019), and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS; 1986–2018) who were ≥40 years of age and free of glaucoma were followed biennially. Incident POAG cases (n = 1946) with reproducible VF loss were confirmed with medical records. Total deviation information from the earliest reliable glaucomatous VF for each POAG eye (n = 2564) was extracted, and machine learning analyses were used to identify optimal solutions (“archetypes”) for regional VF loss patterns. Each POAG eye was assigned a VF archetype based on the highest weighting coefficient. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using per-eye Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

We identified 14 archetypes: four representing advanced loss patterns, nine of early loss, and one of no VF loss. Compared to non-Hispanic whites, black participants had higher risk of early VF loss archetypes (HR = 1.98; 95% CI, 1.48–2.66) and even higher risk for advanced loss archetypes (HR = 6.17; 95% CI, 3.69–10.32; P-contrast = 0.0002); no differences were observed for Asians or Hispanic whites. Hispanic white participants had significantly higher risks of POAG with paracentral defects and advanced superior loss; black participants had significantly higher risks of all advanced loss archetypes and three early loss patterns, including paracentral defects.

Conclusions

Blacks, compared to non-Hispanic whites, had higher risks of POAG with early central and advanced VF loss.

Translational Relevance

In POAG, risks of VF loss regional patterns derived from machine learning algorithms showed racial differences.

Association between SARS-COV-2 infection and muscle strain injury occurrence in elite male football players: a prospective study of 29 weeks including three teams from the Belgian professional football league

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and muscle strain injury in elite athletes.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study in three Belgian professional male football teams was performed during the first half of the 2020-2021 season (June 2020-January 2021). Injury data were collected using established surveillance methods. Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 infection was performed by a PCR test before each official game.

RESULTS

Of the 84 included participants, 22 were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and 14 players developed a muscle strain during the follow-up period. Cox's proportional hazards regression analyses demonstrated a significant association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and the development of muscle strain (HR 5.1; 95% CI 1.1 to 23.1; p=0.037), indicating an increased risk of developing muscle strains following SARS-CoV-2 infection. All athletes who sustained a muscle strain after infection were injured within the first month (15.71±11.74 days) after sports resumption and completed a longer time in quarantine (14.57±6.50 days) compared with the infected players who did not develop a muscle strain (11.18±5.25 days).

CONCLUSION

This study reported a five times higher risk of developing a muscle strain after a SARS-CoV-2 infection in elite male football players. Although this association should be examined further, it is possible that short-term detraining effects due to quarantine, and potentially pathological effects of the SARS-CoV-2 infection are associated with a higher risk of muscle strain injury.