On the altitude dependence of the temperature scaling behaviour at the global troposphere

Atmospheric pollution in the ten most populated US cities. Evidence of persistence

The degree of persistence in daily PM₂₅ and O₃ in the ten most populated US cities, namely New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas and San Jose is examined in this work. We employ a methodology based on fractional integration, using the order of integration as a measure of the degree of persistence. Using data for the time period from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020, our results indicate that fractional integration and long memory features are both present in all the examined cases, with the integration order of the series being constrained in the (0, 1) interval. Based on this, the estimation of the coefficients for the time trend produces results which are substantially different from those obtained under the I (0) assumption.

Diagnostic model for the society safety under COVID-19 pandemic conditions

The aim of this paper is to develop an information-modeling method for assessing and predicting the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, a detailed analysis of official statistical information provided by global and national organizations is carried out. The developed method is based on the algorithm of multi-channel big data processing considering the demographic and socio-economic information. COVID-19 data are analyzed using an instability indicator and a system of differential equations that describe the dynamics of four groups of people: susceptible, infected, recovered and dead. Indicators of the global sustainable development in various sectors are considered to analyze COVID-19 data. Stochastic processes induced by COVID-19 are assessed with the instability indicator showing the level of stability of official data and the reduction of the level of uncertainty. It turns out that the number of deaths is rising with the Human Development Index. It is revealed that COVID-19 divides the global population into three groups according to the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and the number of infected people. The prognosis for the number of infected people in December 2020 and January-February 2021 shows negative events which will decrease slowly.

Optical Spectral Tools for Diagnosing Water Media Quality: A Case Study on the Angara/Yenisey River System in the Siberian Region

This paper presents the results of spectral optical measurements of hydrochemical characteristics in the Angara/Yenisei river system (AYRS) extending from Lake Baikal to the estuary of the Yenisei River. For the first time, such large-scale observations were made as part of a joint American-Russian expedition in July and August of 1995, when concentrations of radionuclides, heavy metals, and oil hydrocarbons were assessed. The results of this study were obtained as part of the Russian hydrochemical expedition in July and August, 2019. For in situ measurements and sampling at 14 sampling sites, three optical spectral instruments and appropriate software were used, including big data processing algorithms and an AYRS simulation model. The results show that the water quality in AYRS has improved slightly due to the reasonably reduced anthropogenic industrial impact. Chemical concentrations in water have been found to vary along the Angara River depending on the location of the dams. The results of in situ measurements and modeling evaluations are given. To overcome the uncertainties in the data caused by the large monitoring area, it is recommended to use the combined AYRS simulation model and the universal 8-channel spectrophotometer installed on a fixed platform for continuous monitoring.

Characterizing variability and predictability for air pollutants with stochastic models

We investigate the dynamics of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and ozone concentrations in Hong Kong. Using fluctuation functions as a measure for their variability, we develop several simple data models and test their predictive power. We discuss two relevant dynamical properties, namely, the scaling of fluctuations, which is associated with long memory, and the deviations from the Gaussian distribution. While the scaling of fluctuations can be shown to be an artifact of a relatively regular seasonal cycle, the process does not follow a normal distribution even when corrected for correlations and non-stationarity due to random (Poissonian) spikes. We compare predictability and other fitted model parameters between stations and pollutants.

The Signature of the Coronavirus Lockdown in Air Pollution in Greece

The change in atmospheric pollution from a public lockdown in Greece introduced to curb the spread of the COVID-19 is examined based on ground-based and satellite observations. The results showed that in most cases, the change in atmospheric pollution is not statistically significant. It is probably an artifact of the meteorological conditions that contributed significantly to the long-range transport of air pollutants over Greece during the shutdown period.

A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data

Atmospheric pollutants and environmental indicators are often used to reconstruct historic atmospheric pollution from peat, as it accumulates over time by decomposing plant material, thus recording a history of air pollution. In the present study, three key parameters related to the peat bogs’ surface wetness dynamics in European Russia during the Holocene were investigated using modern statistical analysis. These parameters are: (i) the water table depth (WTD) in relation to the surface, which is reconstructed based on the community structure of the subfossil testate amoeba assemblages; (ii) the peat humification estimated as absorption of alkaline extract that directly reflects moisture at which the peat was formed; (iii) the Climate Moisture Index (CMI) and the Aridity Index derived from pollen-based reconstructions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation and classifying moisture conditions as the ratio between available annual precipitation and potential land surface evapotranspiration. All these parameters provide useful information about the paleoclimate (atmospheric moisture component) dynamics. High values of WTD and peat humification appear to comply with Gutenberg–Richter law. It is noteworthy that this law also seems to reproduce the high values of the modeled climate moisture and aridity indices. The validity of this new result is checked by replacing “conventional time” with “natural time”. On this basis, a new nowcasting tool is developed to more accurately estimate the average waiting time for the extreme values of these climate parameters. This will help to understand climate variability better to address emerging development needs and priorities by implementing empirical studies of the interactions between climatic effects, mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable growth.

A New Passive Microwave Tool for Operational Forest Fires Detection: A Case Study of Siberia in 2019

The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for early detection of forest fires, especially in forest zones prone to fires using microwave remote sensing and information-modeling tools. A decision-making system is developed as a tool for operational coupled analysis of modeling results and remote sensing data. The main operating structure of this system has blocks that calculate the moisture of forest canopy, the soil-litter layer, and the forest physical temperature using the observed brightness temperature provided by the flying platform IL-18 equipped with passive microwave radiometers of 1.43, 13.3 and 37.5 GHz frequencies. The hydrological parameters of the forest are assessed with both a developed regional hydrological model and remote sensing observations. The hydrological model allows for the detection of fire-prone zones that are subject to remote sensing when modeling results are corrected and thermal temperatures are evaluated. An approach for the real time forest fires classification via daytime remote sensing observations is proposed. The relative theoretical and experimental results presented here have allowed us to use a new approach to forests monitoring during periods of potential fire. A decision-making algorithm is presented that aims at analyzing data flows from radiometers located on the remote sensing platform to calculate the probability of forest fire occurring in geographical pixels. As case study, the state of forest fires that occurred in Siberia in 2019 using microwave remote sensing measurements conducted by a flying IL-18 laboratory is presented. This remote sensing platform is equipped with optical and microwave tools that allow the optical and microwave images of the observed forest areas. The main operating frequencies of microwave radiometers are 1.43, 13.3 and 37.5 GHz. Microwave radiometers provide data on water content in the forest canopy and on litter and physical temperatures. Based on the long-term measurements made in Siberia, the possible improvement of the proposed decision-making system for future relevant studies is discussed in detail. The basic idea of cost-effective monitoring of forested areas consists of a two-stage exploration of fire risk zones. The first monitoring stage is performed using the hydrological model of the study area to identify low moisture areas of the forest canopy and litter. The second stage of monitoring is conducted using the remote sensing platform only in the local fire-dangerous areas in order to more precisely identify the areas prone to fire and to detect and diagnose real burning zones. The developed algorithm allows the calculation of physical temperatures and the detection of temperature anomalies based on measured brightness temperatures. Finally, the spatial distribution of the probability of forest fire occurrence is given as an example of the decision-making system along with a comparison of this distribution with the satellite images provided by the EOSDIS Land data.

Future Temperature Extremes Will Be More Harmful: A New Critical Factor for Improved Forecasts

There is increasing evidence that extreme weather events such as frequent and intense cold spells and heat waves cause unprecedented deaths and diseases in both developed and developing countries. Thus, they require extensive and immediate research to limit the risks involved. Average temperatures in Europe in June-July 2019 were the hottest ever measured and attributed to climate change. The problem, however, of a thorough study of natural climate change is the lack of experimental data from the long past, where anthropogenic activity was then very limited. Today, this problem can be successfully resolved using, inter alia, biological indicators that have provided reliable environmental information for thousands of years in the past. The present study used high-resolution quantitative reconstruction data derived from biological records of Lake Silvaplana sediments covering the period 1181-1945. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a slight temperature change in the past could trigger current or future intense temperature change or changes. Modern analytical tools were used for this purpose, which eventually showed that temperature fluctuations were persistent. That is, they exhibit long memory with scaling behavior, which means that an increase (decrease) in temperature in the past was always followed by another increase (decrease) in the future with multiple amplitudes. Therefore, the increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events due to climate change will be more pronounced than expected. This will affect human well-being and mortality more than that estimated in today's modeling scenarios. The scaling property detected here can be used for more accurate monthly to decadal forecasting of extreme temperature events. Thus, it is possible to develop improved early warning systems that will reduce the public health risk at local, national, and international levels.

Evaluation of microclimates and assessment of thermal comfort of Panthera leo in the Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya

Quantifying comfort levels of lions within the Masai Mara National Reserve in Kenya is the main focus of this study. Its discourse delineates step by step the process of quantifying comfort levels of lions within the Mara. Resource-efficient measures for humans in the built environment have long been developed through the creation of passive zones and modulated ventilation. In an analogous manner, new procedures are being adapted for creating optimized microclimates in natural game reserves. This involves CFD (computational fluid dynamics)-inspired landscaping. It is seen that the predicted mean vote (PMV) values-measures of thermal comfort-exceed the expected comfortable ranges suitable for normal functioning of lions in the reserve. This calls for a detailed exploration on sustainable development of this sanctuary. The paper illustrates how modern tools in computational fluid dynamics can be used along with standard ecological models to ascertain the optimal extent of airflow, levels of hydration, and land use pattern changes affecting the prevailing microclimate.

The Earth's Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability

This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled “nature-society system (NSS) model”, through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts.

Impacts of air pollution and climate on materials in Athens, Greece

Abstract. For more than 10 years now the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece, has contributed to the UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) ICP Materials (International Co-operative Programme on Effects on Materials including Historic and Cultural Monuments) programme for monitoring the corrosion/soiling levels of different kinds of materials due to environmental air-quality parameters. In this paper we present the results obtained from the analysis of observational data that were collected in Athens during the period 2003–2012. According to these results, the corrosion/soiling of the particular exposed materials tends to decrease over the years, except for the case of copper. Based on this long experimental database that is applicable to the multi-pollutant situation in the Athens basin, we present dose–response functions (DRFs) considering that dose stands for the air pollutant concentration, response for the material mass loss (normally per annum) and function, the relationship derived by the best statistical fit to the data.

On the scaling of the solar incident flux

Abstract. It was recently found that spectral solar incident flux (SIF) as a function of the ultraviolet wavelengths exhibits 1/f-type power-law correlations. In this study, an attempt was made to explore the residues of the SIF with respect to the Planck law over a wider range of wavelengths, from 115.5 to 629.5 nm. Using spectral, Haar and Detrended Fluctuation analyses, we show that over the range from 10–20 nm to the maximum lag (≈ 500 nm), the SIF residues have a scaling regime with fluctuation exponent H ≈ 0.37 but with high intermittency (C1 ≈ 0.16, multifractal index α≈ 1.7) and spectral exponent ≈ 1.46. Over the shorter wavelengths range we found on the contrary low intermittency (C1 ≈ 0) with spectral exponent ≈ 1 and H ≈ 0.

New spectral functions of the near-ground albedo derived from aircraft diffraction spectrometer observations

Abstract. The airborne spectral observations of the upward and downward irradiances are revisited to investigate the dependence of the near-ground albedo as a function of wavelength in the entire solar spectrum for different surfaces (sand, water, snow) and under different conditions (clear or cloudy sky). The radiative upward and downward fluxes were determined by a diffraction spectrometer flown on a research aircraft that was performing multiple flight paths near the ground. The results obtained show that the near-ground albedo does not generally increase with increasing wavelengths for all kinds of surfaces as is widely believed today. Particularly, in the case of water surfaces it was found that the albedo in the ultraviolet region is more or less independent of the wavelength on a long-term basis. Interestingly, in the visible and near-infrared spectra the water albedo obeys an almost constant power-law relationship with wavelength. In the case of sand surfaces it was found that the sand albedo is a quadratic function of wavelength, which becomes more accurate if the ultraviolet wavelengths are neglected. Finally, it was found that the spectral dependence of snow albedo behaves similarly to that of water, i.e. both decrease from the ultraviolet to the near-infrared wavelengths by 20–50%, despite the fact that their values differ by one order of magnitude (water albedo being lower). In addition, the snow albedo vs. ultraviolet wavelength is almost constant, while in the visible near-infrared spectrum the best simulation is achieved by a second-order polynomial, as in the case of sand, but with opposite slopes.

On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies

Abstract. The annual and the monthly mean values of the land-surface air temperature anomalies from 1880–2011, over both hemispheres, are used to investigate the existence of long-range correlations in their temporal evolution. The analytical tool employed is the detrended fluctuation analysis, which eliminates the noise of the non-stationarities that characterize the land-surface air temperature anomalies in both hemispheres. The reliability of the results obtained from this tool (e.g., power-law scaling) is investigated, especially for large scales, by using error bounds statistics, the autocorrelation function (e.g., rejection of its exponential decay) and the method of local slopes (e.g., their constancy in a sufficient range). The main finding is that deviations of one sign of the land-surface air temperature anomalies in both hemispheres are generally followed by deviations with the same sign at different time intervals. In other words, the land-surface air temperature anomalies exhibit persistent behaviour, i.e., deviations tend to keep the same sign. Taking into account our earlier study, according to which the land and sea surface temperature anomalies exhibit scaling behaviour in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, we conclude that the difference between the scaling exponents mainly stems from the sea surface temperature, which exhibits a stronger memory in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere. Moreover, the variability of the scaling exponents of the annual mean values of the land-surface air temperature anomalies versus latitude shows an increasing trend from the low latitudes to polar regions, starting from the classical random walk (white noise) over the tropics. There is a gradual increase of the scaling exponent from low to high latitudes (which is stronger over the Southern Hemisphere).

Long-range persistence of temperature records induced by long-term climatic phenomena

The occurrence of persistence in climatic systems has been investigated by analyzing 1167 surface temperature records, covering 110 years, in the whole United States. Due to the nonlinear and nonstationary character of temperature time series, the seasonal cycle suffers from both phase and amplitude modulations, which are not properly removed by the classical definition of the temperature anomaly. In order to properly filter out the seasonal component and the monotonic trends, we define the temperature anomaly in a different way by using the empirical mode decomposition (EMD). The essence of this method is to empirically identify the intrinsic oscillatory modes from the temperature records according to their characteristic time scale. The original signal is thus decomposed into a collection of a finite small number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), having its own time scale and representing oscillations experiencing amplitude and phase modulations, and a residue, describing the mean trend. The sum of all the IMF components as well as the residue reconstructs the original signal. Partial reconstruction can be achieved by selectively choosing IMFs in order to remove trivial trends and noise. The EMD description in terms of time-dependent amplitude and phase functions overcomes one of the major limitation of the Fourier analysis, namely, a correct description of nonlinearities and nonstationarities. By using the EMD definition of temperature anomalies we found persistence of fluctuations with a different degree according to the geographical location, on time scales in the range 3-15 years. The spatial distribution of the detrended fluctuation analysis exponent, used to quantify the degree of memory, indicates that the long-term persistence could be related to to the presence of climatic regions, which are more sensitive to climatic phenomena such as the El Niño southern oscillation.