Zero-inflated models for adjusting varying exposures: a cautionary note on the pitfalls of using offset

An extensive re-evaluation of evidence and analyses of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) I: Within proactive culling areas

Here, in the first of two investigations, we evaluate and extend the analyses of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) to estimate the effectiveness of proactive badger culling for reducing incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in cattle within culling areas. Using previously reviewed, publicly available data, alongside frequentist and Bayesian approaches, we re-estimate culling effects for confirmed incidence of herd breakdowns (TB incidents in cattle) within proactive culling areas. We appraise the varying assumptions and statistical structures of individual models to determine model appropriateness. Our re-evaluation of frequentist models provides results consistent with peer-reviewed analyses of RBCT data, due to the consistency of beneficial effects across three analysis periods. Furthermore, well-fitting Bayesian models with weakly informative prior distribution assumptions produce high probabilities (91.2%-99.5%) of beneficial effects of proactive culling on confirmed herd breakdowns within culling areas in the period from the initial culls (between 1998 and 2002) until 2005. Similarly high probabilities of beneficial effects were observed post-trial (from 1 year after last culls until March 2013). Thus, irrespective of statistical approach or study period, we estimate substantial beneficial effects of proactive culling within culling areas, consistent with separate, existing, peer-reviewed analyses of the RBCT data.

Childhood trauma and the use of opioids and other prescription analgesics in adolescence and young adulthood: The HUNT Study

ABSTRACT

Opioid and nonopioid analgesics are commonly prescribed to young people to alleviate pain. Even short-term prescriptions increase the risk of persistent use and future misuse of potent analgesics, such as opioids. Childhood trauma exposure has been found to be related to pain conditions and to using more prescription analgesics. This large, prospective cohort study aimed to investigate the association of a broad range of childhood trauma exposures with prescription rates for opioid and nonopioid analgesics in adolescence and young adulthood. Self-reported data on childhood trauma exposures from adolescents (aged 13-19 years) who participated in the Young-HUNT3 Study (2006-2008, n = 8199) were linked to data from the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD, 2004-2021). We found that exposure to childhood trauma was consistently associated with higher prescription rates for opioids throughout adolescence and young adulthood. The highest incidence rate ratio (IRR) in adolescence was observed for sexual abuse (IRR 1.63, confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.23). In young adulthood, the highest IRR was observed for physical violence (2.66, CI 2.27-3.12). The same overall pattern was observed for nonopioid analgesics. The more frequent prescriptions of opioid and nonopioid analgesics to participants exposed to childhood trauma suggests a higher symptom load of pain causing them to seek professional help with pain relief. Receiving potent analgesics is not without risk, and the likelihood of misuse may be elevated among trauma-exposed individuals. A trauma-informed approach to pain could be vital for guiding clinicians to the most effective and least harmful treatment for each patient.

1965 US Voting Rights Act Impact on Black and Black Versus White Infant Death Rates in Jim Crow States, 1959-1980 and 2017-2021

Objectives. To investigate the impact of the US Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965 on Black and Black versus White infant deaths in Jim Crow states. Methods. Using data from 1959 to 1980 and 2017 to 2021, we applied difference-in-differences methods to quantify differential pre-post VRA changes in infant deaths in VRA-exposed versus unexposed counties, controlling for population size and social, economic, and health system characteristics. VRA-exposed counties, identified by Section 4, were subject to government interventions to remove existing racist voter suppression policies. Results. Black infant deaths in VRA-exposed counties decreased by an average of 11.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7, 21.0) additional deaths beyond the decrease experienced by unexposed counties between the pre-VRA period (1959-1965) and the post-VRA period (1966-1970). This translates to 6703 (95% CI = 999.6, 12 348) or 17.5% (95% CI = 3.1%, 28.1%) fewer deaths than would have been experienced in the absence of the VRA. The equivalent differential changes were not significant among the White or total population. Conclusions. Passage of the VRA led to pronounced reductions in Black infant deaths in Southern counties subject to government intervention because these counties had particularly egregious voter suppression practices. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(3):300-308. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307518).

Seeing the forest and the trees: Holistic view of social distancing on the spread of COVID-19 in China

The human social and behavioral activities play significant roles in the spread of COVID-19. Social-distancing centered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the best strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19 prior to an effective pharmaceutical or vaccine solution. This study investigates various social-distancing measures' impact on the spread of COVID-19 using advanced global and novel local geospatial techniques. Social distancing measures are acquired through website analysis, document text analysis, and other big data extraction strategies. A spatial panel regression model and a newly proposed geographically weighted panel regression model are applied to investigate the global and local relationships between the spread of COVID-19 and the various social distancing measures. Results from the combined global and local analyses confirm the effectiveness of NPI strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19. While global level strategies allow a nation to implement social distancing measures immediately at the beginning to minimize the impact of the disease, local level strategies fine tune such measures based on different times and places to provide targeted implementation to balance conflicting demands during the pandemic. The local level analysis further suggests that implementing different NPI strategies in different locations might allow us to battle unknown global pandemic more efficiently.

Evaluation of post-discharge engagement for emergency department patients with opioid use history who received telehealth recovery coaching services

BACKGROUND

In recent years, emergency departments (EDs) across the nation have implemented peer recovery coach (PRC) services to support patients who use opioids. The majority of such interventions discussed in the literature follow an in-person modality where PRCs engage patients directly at the ED bedside. However, the use of telehealth services in EDs is becoming more popular. These services connect PRCs with ED patients in real-time via secure communications technology, and very little is known about the service- and clinical-based outcomes with which they are associated. The current study sought to assess factors associated with successful post-discharge follow-up of patients with a history of opioid use who received PRC telehealth services while in the ED.

METHOD

Data come from records for 917 patients who engaged with a telehealth PRC one or more times (1208 total engagements) at 1 of 13 EDs within the same health system. A multilevel Poisson regression model was used to assess the degree to which variables predicted successful post-discharge follow-up, defined as the number of times a PRC successfully spoke with the patient each month after ED discharge.

RESULTS

At least one follow-up was successfully completed by a PRC for 23% of enrolled patients. Significant predictors of successful follow-up included patient employment at baseline (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR]: 2.8, CI: 2.05-3.9), living in a rural area (IRR: 1.8, CI: 1.04-3.2), PRC provision of referrals (IRR: 1.7, CI: 1.2-2.2), number of ED encounters in the previous 365 days (IRR: 0.99, CI: 0.98-0.99), and duration of the initial PRC telehealth interaction (IRR: 0.87, CI: 0.85-0.88).

CONCLUSION

Given that relationship development is a key tool in the PRC profession, understanding successful follow-up associated with telehealth engagement has unique importance. The results have potential utility for planning and implementing peer telehealth services in EDs and other locations, which is needed for the development of the PRC profession and the likely expansion of peer telehealth services.

The association between involuntary alcohol treatment and subsequent emergency department visits and hospitalizations: a Bayesian analysis of treated patients and matched controls

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Many nations have provisions for involuntary treatment of alcohol dependence where the person is at serious risk of harm to themselves. To date, there has been little thorough evaluation of its effectiveness. This study aimed to determine if there were differences between involuntary and voluntary treatment for alcohol dependence on subsequent emergency and hospital care.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort design using linked routinely collected administrative data on health-care utilization.

SETTING

Hospital and community-based alcohol treatment, New South Wales, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 231 patients who were involuntarily treated for alcohol dependence and 231 matched controls who received treatment as usual within the period May 2012 to April 2018.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

Involuntary treatment comprised a 28-day mandated hospital admission which included supervised withdrawal, comprehensive assessment, rehabilitation and support followed by voluntary aftercare support for up to 6 months. Treatment as usual comprised three not mutually exclusive forms of intensive voluntary alcohol treatment: withdrawal management, rehabilitation and pharmacotherapies for alcohol dependence.

MEASUREMENTS

Outcome measures: changes in the number of emergency department (ED) visits and number of unplanned hospital admissions 12 months before and 12 months after completion of index treatment.

FINDINGS

Both groups showed a reduction in ED visits (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.56, 95% credible intervals (CrI) = 0.39-0.78) and unplanned hospital admissions (IRR = 0.49, 95% CrI = 0.37-0.65). There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups (IRR = 0.77, 95% CrI = 0.58-1.03 for ED visits and IRR = 0.79, 95% CrI = 0.62-1.01 for hospital admissions). The Bayes factors were 0.925 and 0.936 for ED visits and unplanned hospital admissions, respectively, interpreted as weak evidence in support of the null hypothesis of no difference between the interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Involuntary treatment of alcohol dependence was associated with reduced health service utilization in the year following treatment, and the outcomes did not differ from those of a matched control group.

A comparison of zero-inflated and hurdle models for modeling zero-inflated count data

Counts data with excessive zeros are frequently encountered in practice. For example, the number of health services visits often includes many zeros representing the patients with no utilization during a follow-up time. A common feature of this type of data is that the count measure tends to have excessive zero beyond a common count distribution can accommodate, such as Poisson or negative binomial. Zero-inflated or hurdle models are often used to fit such data. Despite the increasing popularity of ZI and hurdle models, there is still a lack of investigation of the fundamental differences between these two types of models. In this article, we reviewed the zero-inflated and hurdle models and highlighted their differences in terms of their data generating processes. We also conducted simulation studies to evaluate the performances of both types of models. The final choice of regression model should be made after a careful assessment of goodness of fit and should be tailored to a particular data in question.