Construction and validation of a morbidity index based on the International Classification of Primary Care

Young adults with depression: A registry-based longitudinal study of work-life marginalisation. The Norwegian GP-DEP study

AIMS

To explore the association between a depression diagnosis in young adulthood and risk of marginalisation at age 29 years, among those who had completed upper secondary school and those who had not completed at age 21.

METHODS

In a longitudinal cohort study based on nationwide registers we followed 111,558 people from age 22-29 years. Outcomes were risk of marginalisation and educational achievement at age 29. Exposure was a diagnosed depression at ages 22-26 years. Comorbid mental and somatic health conditions, gender and country of origin were covariates. Relative risks were estimated with Poisson regression models, stratified by educational level at age 21.

RESULTS

For people who had not completed upper secondary school at age 21 years, a depression diagnosis at age 22-26 increased the risk of low income (relative risk = 1.33; 95% confidence interval = 1.25-1.40), prolonged unemployment benefit (1.46; 1.38-1.55) and social security benefit (1.56; 1.41-1.74) at age 29 compared with those with no depression. Among those who had completed upper secondary school at age 21 years, depression increased the risk of low income (1.71; 1.60-1.83), prolonged unemployment benefit (2.17; 2.03-2.31), social security benefit (3.62; 2.91-4.51) and disability pension (4.43; 3.26-6.01) compared with those with no depression. Mental comorbidity had a significant impact on risk of marginalisation in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Depression in one's mid-20s significantly increases the risk of marginalisation at age 29 years, and comorbid mental health conditions reinforce this association. Functional ability should be given priority in depression care in early adulthood to counteract marginalisation.

Continuity and breaches in GP care and their associations with mortality for patients with chronic disease: an observational study using Norwegian registry data

BACKGROUND

Despite many benefits of continuity of care with a named regular GP (RGP), continuity is deteriorating in many countries.

AIM

To investigate the association between RGP continuity and mortality, in a personal list system, in addition to examining how breaches in continuity affect this association for patients with chronic diseases.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A registry-based observational study using Norwegian primary care consultation data for patients with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes mellitus, or heart failure.

METHOD

The Usual Provider of Care (UPC, value 0-1) Index was used to measure both disease-related (UPCdisease) and overall (UPCall) continuity with the RGP at the time of consultation. In most analyses, patients who changed RGP during the study period were excluded. In the combined group of all four chronic conditions, the proportion of consultations with other GPs and out-of-hours services was calculated. Cox regression models calculated the associations between continuity during 2013-2016 and mortality in 2017-2018.

RESULTS

Patients with COPD with UPCdisease <0.25 had 47% increased risk of dying within 2 years (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval = 1.22 to 1.64) compared with those with UPCdisease ≥0.75. Mortality also increased with decreasing UPCdisease for patients with heart failure and decreasing UPCall for those with diabetes. In the combined group of chronic conditions, mortality increased with decreasing UPCall. This latter association was also found for patients who had changed RGP.

CONCLUSION

Higher disease-related and overall RGP UPC are both associated with lower mortality. However, changing RGP did not significantly affect mortality, indicating a compensatory benefit of informational and management continuity in a patient list system.

How valid is a prescription-based multimorbidity index (Rx-risk) in predicting mortality in the Outcomes and Multimorbidity In Type 2 diabetes (OMIT) study? A nation-wide registry-based cohort study from Norway

OBJECTIVE

The prescription-based Rx-risk index has previously been developed to measure multimorbidity. We aimed to adapt and evaluate the validity of the Rx-risk index in prediction of mortality among persons with type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

Registry-based study.

SETTING

Adults with type 2 diabetes in Norway identified within the 'Outcomes and Multimorbidity In Type 2 diabetes' cohort, with linkage to prescriptions from the Norwegian Prescription Database and mortality from the Population Registry.

PARTICIPANTS

We defined a calibration sample of 42 290 adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes 1950-2013, and a temporal validation sample of 7085 adults diagnosed 2014-2016 to evaluate the index validity over time PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: All-cause mortality METHODS: For the calibration sample, dispensed drug prescriptions in 2013 were used to define 44 morbidity categories. Weights were estimated using regression coefficients from a Cox regression model with 5 year mortality as the outcome and all morbidity categories, age and sex included as covariates. The Rx-risk index was computed as a weighted sum of morbidities. The validity of the index was evaluated using C-statistic and calibration plots.

RESULTS

In the calibration sample, mean (SD) age at start of follow-up and duration of diabetes was 63.8 (12.4) and 10.1 (7.0) years, respectively. The overall C-statistic was 0.82 and varied from 0.74 to 0.85 when stratifying on age groups, sex, level of education and country of origin. In the validation sample, mean (SD) age and duration of diabetes was 59.7 (13.0) and 2.0 (0.8) years, respectively. Despite younger age, shorter duration of diabetes and later time period, the C-index was high both in the total sample (0.84) and separately for men (0.83) and women (0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

The Rx-risk index showed good discrimination and calibration in predicting mortality and thus presents a valid tool to assess multimorbidity among persons with type 2 diabetes.

The impact of variation in out-of-hours doctors' referral practices: a Norwegian registry-based observational study

BACKGROUND

In a gatekeeping system, the individual doctor's referral practice is an important factor for hospital activity and patient safety.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to investigate the variation in out-of-hours (OOH) doctors' referral practice, and to explore these variations' impact on admissions for selected diagnoses reflecting severity, and 30-day mortality.

METHODS

National data from the doctors' claims database were linked with hospital data in the Norwegian Patient Registry. Based on the doctor's individual referral rate adjusted for local organizational factors, the doctors were sorted into quartiles of low-, medium-low-, medium-high-, and high-referral practice. The relative risk (RR) for all referrals and for selected discharge diagnoses was calculated using generalized linear models.

RESULTS

The OOH doctors' mean referral rate was 110 referrals per 1,000 consultations. Patients seeing a doctor in the highest referring practice quartile had higher likelihood of being referred to hospital and diagnosed with the symptom of pain in throat and chest, abdominal pain, and dizziness compared with the medium-low quartile (RR 1.63, 1.49, and 1.95). For the critical conditions of acute myocardial infarction, acute appendicitis, pulmonary embolism, and stroke, we found a similar, but weaker, association (RR 1.38, 1.32, 1.24, and 1.19). The 30-day mortality among patients not referred did not differ between the quartiles.

CONCLUSIONS

Doctors with high-referral practice referred more patients who were later discharged with all types of diagnoses, including serious and critical conditions. With low-referral practice, severe conditions might have been overlooked, although the 30-day mortality was not affected.

Prevalence and predictors of post-COVID-19 symptoms in general practice - a registry-based nationwide study

BACKGROUND

With Norwegian national registry data, we assessed the prevalence of post-COVID-19 symptoms at least 3 months after confirmed infection, and whether sociodemographic factors and pre-pandemic health problems were risk factors for these symptoms.

METHODS

All persons with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test from February 2020 to February 2021 (exposed) were compared to a group without a positive test (unexposed) matched on age, sex, and country of origin. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for 18 outcome symptoms commonly described as post-COVID-19 related, registered by GPs. We compared relative risks (RR) for fatigue, memory disturbance, or shortness of breath among exposed and unexposed using Poisson regression models, assessing sex, age, education, country of origin, and pre-pandemic presence of the same symptom and comorbidity as possible risk factors, with additional analyses to assess hospitalisation for COVID-19 as a risk factor among exposed.

RESULTS

The exposed group (N = 53 846) had a higher prevalence of most outcome symptoms compared to the unexposed (N = 485 757), with the highest risk for shortness of breath (HR 2.75; 95%CI 2.59-2.93), fatigue (2.08; 2.00-2.16) and memory disturbance (1.41;1.26-1.59). High HRs were also found for disturbance of smell/taste and hair loss, but frequencies were low. Concerning risk factors, sociodemographic factors were at large similarly associated with outcome symptoms in both groups. Registration of the outcome symptom before the pandemic increased the risk for fatigue, memory disturbance and shortness of breath after COVID-19, but these associations were weaker among exposed. Comorbidity was not associated with fatigue and shortness of breath in the COVID-19 group. For memory disturbance, the RR was slightly increased with the higher comorbidity score both among exposed and unexposed.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 was associated with a range of symptoms lasting more than three months after the infection.

Effect of sense of coherence on long-term work participation among rehabilitation patients: a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the causal effect of sense of coherence on long-term work participation after rehabilitation, including stratification by age and diagnoses.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≤ 60 years, employed and accepted for somatic interprofessional rehabilitation in 2015 (n = 192).

METHODS

Patients reported sense of coherence before rehabilitation in 2015 and mental and physical functioning in 2016. Register data were used to measure work participation during 2018 and days working without social security benefits during 2016-18. Regression models were used to explore the total effect of sense of coherence and the possible mediation of functioning. Results are reported as odds ratios (95% confidence intervals).

RESULTS

During 2018, 77% of the total study cohort participated in work activities. The subgroup with musculoskeletal diagnoses had the fewest days of working without social security benefits. A causal relationship was found between sense of coherence and long-term work participation. Some of the effect of sense of coherence was mediated by mental functioning. The total effect of sense of coherence was strongest for patients with musculo-skeletal diagnoses (work participation: 1.11 (1.05, 1.17), days working without social security benefits: 1.05 (0.01, 109)).

CONCLUSION

Improving coping resources may be beneficial to facilitate long-term work participation after injury or illness, especially for individuals with musculoskeletal diagnoses.

Combination of health care service use and the relation to demographic and socioeconomic factors for patients with musculoskeletal disorders: a descriptive cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) access health care in different ways. Despite the high prevalence and significant costs, we know little about the different ways patients use health care. We aim to fill this gap by identifying which combinations of health care services patients use for new MSDs, and its relation to clinical characteristics, demographic and socioeconomic factors, long-term use and costs, and discuss what the implications of this variation are.

METHODS

The study combines Norwegian registers on health care use, diagnoses, comorbidities, demographic and socioeconomic factors. Patients (≥ 18 years) are included by their first health consultation for MSD in 2013-2015. Latent class analysis (LCA) with count data of first year consultations for General Practitioners (GPs), hospital consultants, physiotherapists and chiropractors are used to identify combinations of health care use. Long-term high-cost patients are defined as total cost year 1-5 above 95th percentile (≥ 3 744€).

RESULTS

We identified seven latent classes: 1: GP, low use; 2: GP, high use; 3: GP and hospital; 4: GP and physiotherapy, low use; 5: GP, hospital and physiotherapy, high use; 6: Chiropractor, low use; 7: GP and chiropractor, high use. Median first year health care contacts varied between classes from 1-30 and costs from 20€-838€. Eighty-seven percent belonged to class 1, 4 or 6, characterised by few consultations and treatment in primary care. Classes with high first year use were characterised by higher age, lower education and more comorbidities and were overrepresented among the long-term high-cost users.

CONCLUSION

There was a large variation in first year health care service use, and we identified seven latent classes based on frequency of consultations. A small proportion of patients accounted for a high proportion of total resource use. This can indicate the potential for more efficient resource use. However, the effect of demographic and socioeconomic variables for determining combinations of service use can be interpreted as the health care system transforming unobserved patient needs into variations in use. These findings contribute to the understanding of clinical pathways and can help in the planning of future care, reduction in disparities and improvement in health outcomes for patients with MSDs.