Propagating Imprecision: Combining Confidence Intervals from Independent Sources

Novel autoantibodies help diagnose anti-SSA antibody negative Sjögren disease and predict abnormal labial salivary gland pathology

OBJECTIVES

Sjögren disease (SjD) diagnosis often requires either positive anti-SSA antibodies or a labial salivary gland biopsy with a positive focus score (FS). One-third of patients with SjD lack anti-SSA antibodies (SSA-), requiring a positive FS for diagnosis. Our objective was to identify novel autoantibodies to diagnose 'seronegative' SjD.

METHODS

IgG binding to a high-density whole human peptidome array was quantified using sera from SSA- SjD cases and matched non-autoimmune controls. We identified the highest bound peptides using empirical Bayesian statistical filters, which we confirmed in an independent cohort comprising SSA- SjD (n=76), sicca-controls without autoimmunity (n=75) and autoimmune-feature controls (SjD features but not meeting SjD criteria; n=41). In this external validation, we used non-parametric methods for binding abundance and controlled false discovery rate in group comparisons. For predictive modelling, we used logistic regression, model selection methods and cross-validation to identify clinical and peptide variables that predict SSA- SjD and FS positivity.

RESULTS

IgG against a peptide from D-aminoacyl-tRNA deacylase (DTD2) bound more in SSA- SjD than sicca-controls (p=0.004) and combined controls (sicca-controls and autoimmune-feature controls combined; p=0.003). IgG against peptides from retroelement silencing factor-1 and DTD2 were bound more in FS-positive than FS-negative participants (p=0.010; p=0.012). A predictive model incorporating clinical variables showed good discrimination between SjD versus control (area under the curve (AUC) 74%) and between FS-positive versus FS-negative (AUC 72%).

CONCLUSION

We present novel autoantibodies in SSA- SjD that have good predictive value for SSA- SjD and FS positivity.

The disease burden and its distribution characteristics of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province, Southern China

BACKGROUND

Clonorchiasis has significant socioeconomic importance in endemic areas; however, studies investigating the disease burden in specific sub-regions are lacking. This study aims to address the gap by quantifying the current disease burden caused by clonorchiasis in Guangdong province and assessing its distribution characteristics.

METHODS

Comprehensive measures, including prevalence rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and direct medical costs, were used to assess the disease burden of clonorchiasis. To estimate the prevalence rate, the number of infections was divided by the examined population, based on the annual surveillance data on clonorchiasis cases during 2016-2021. The calculation of DALYs was based on the epidemiological parameters according to the definition issued by the World Health Organization. Cost data of clonorchiasis were utilized to quantify the direct medical costs. The distribution characteristics of disease burden were assessed through comparisons of groups of population defined by geographic area, time, and characteristics of people.

RESULTS

In 2021, clonorchiasis posed a significant disease burden in Guangdong Province. The prevalence rate was found to be 4.25% [95% CI (4.02%, 4.49%)], with an associated burden of DALYs of 406,802.29 [95% CI (329,275.33, 49,215,163.78)] person-years. The per-case direct medical costs of patients with clonorchiasis were estimated to be CNY 7907.2 (SD = 5154.4). Notably, while the prevalence rate and DALYs showed a steady decrease from 2016 to 2020, there was a rising trend in 2021. Spatial clustering of clonorchiasis cases and DALYs was also observed, particularly along the Pearl River and Han River. This suggests a concentration of the disease in these regions. Furthermore, significant differences in prevalence rates were found among various demographic groups, including sex, age, occupation, and education level. Additionally, patients with longer hospital stays were more likely to incur higher direct medical costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province remains high, despite significant progress achieved through the implementation of the prevention and control programs. It is suggested that measures should be taken based on the distribution characteristics to maximize the effectiveness of prevention and control, with a primary focus on key populations and areas.

Novel autoantibodies help diagnose anti-SSA antibody negative Sjögren's disease and predict abnormal labial salivary gland pathology

Objectives

Sj□gren's disease (SjD) diagnosis requires either positive anti-SSA antibodies or a labial salivary gland biopsy with a positive focus score (FS). One-third of SjD patients lack anti-SSA antibodies (SSA-), requiring a positive FS for diagnosis. Our objective was to identify novel autoantibodies to diagnose 'seronegative' SjD.

Methods

IgG binding to a high density whole human peptidome array was quantified using sera from SSA- SjD cases and matched non-autoimmune controls. We identified the highest bound peptides using empirical Bayesian statistical filters, which we confirmed in an independent cohort comprising SSA- SjD (n=76), sicca controls without autoimmunity (n=75), and autoimmune controls (SjD features but not meeting SjD criteria; n=41). In this external validation, we used non-parametric methods for peptide abundance and controlled false discovery rate in group comparisons. For predictive modeling, we used logistic regression, model selection methods, and cross-validation to identify clinical and peptide variables that predict SSA- SjD and FS positivity.

Results

IgG against a peptide from D-aminoacyl-tRNA deacylase (DTD2) was bound more in SSA- SjD than sicca controls (p=.004) and more than combined controls (sicca and autoimmune controls combined; p=0.003). IgG against peptides from retroelement silencing factor-1 (RESF1) and DTD2, were bound more in FS-positive than FS-negative participants (p=.010; p=0.012). A predictive model incorporating clinical variables showed good discrimination between SjD versus control (AUC 74%) and between FS-positive versus FS-negative (AUC 72%).

Conclusion

We present novel autoantibodies in SSA- SjD that have good predictive value for SSA- SjD and FS-positivity.

KEY MESSAGES

What is already known on this topic - Seronegative (anti-SSA antibody negative [SSA-]) Sjögren's disease (SjD) requires a labial salivary gland biopsy for diagnosis, which is challenging to obtain and interpret. What this study adds - We identified novel autoantibodies in SSA- SjD that, when combined with readily available clinical variables, provide good predictive ability to discriminate 1) SSA- SjD from control participants and 2) abnormal salivary gland biopsies from normal salivary gland biopsies. How this study might affect research, practice or policy - This study provides novel diagnostic antibodies addressing the critical need for improvement of SSA- SjD diagnostic tools.

Reporting and interpretation of effects in non-randomized nutritional and environmental epidemiology: a methods study

PURPOSE

The presentation of absolute effects, in addition to relative effects, is critical to the optimal interpretation of effect estimates. Failure to present and interpret absolute effects may obscure the magnitude of the effect of an intervention or exposure and mislead evidence users.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we estimate the proportion of systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMAs) addressing the health effects of nutritional and environmental exposures that report absolute effects.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from 2019 through 2021 for SRMAs addressing the health effects of nutritional and environmental exposures and patient-important health outcomes. We included a sample of 200 SRMAs. Pairs of reviewers, working independently and in duplicate, reviewed search records for eligibility and collected data from SRMAs.

RESULTS

More than two-thirds (153/200; 76.5%) of eligible systematic reviews reported on one or more dichotomous outcomes that could be translated to absolute effects. Only eight (8/153, 5.2%)5.2%), however, reported absolute effects. A similar proportion of reviews published in high-impact journals and in other journals reported absolute effects (4/131; 3.1% vs. 4/69; 5.9%). Among reviews that reported absolute effects, six reviews (6/8; 75%) reported absolute risk differences as fractions (e.g., 2 fewer cases per 1000 people) and two reviews (2/8; 25%) presented the number of cases prevented by modifying the exposure (e.g., 2000 cases prevented in United States annually).

CONCLUSIONS

Reviews addressing the effects of nutritional and environmental exposures on health outcomes rarely report absolute effects, which precludes effective interpretation of magnitudes of effects and their importance. We present guidance for review authors, editors, peer reviewers, and evidence users to calculate and interpret absolute effects.

PICH acts as a force-dependent nucleosome remodeler

In anaphase, any unresolved DNA entanglements between the segregating sister chromatids can give rise to chromatin bridges. To prevent genome instability, chromatin bridges must be resolved prior to cytokinesis. The SNF2 protein PICH has been proposed to play a direct role in this process through the remodeling of nucleosomes. However, direct evidence of nucleosome remodeling by PICH has remained elusive. Here, we present an in vitro single-molecule assay that mimics chromatin under tension, as is found in anaphase chromatin bridges. Applying a combination of dual-trap optical tweezers and fluorescence imaging of PICH and histones bound to a nucleosome-array construct, we show that PICH is a tension- and ATP-dependent nucleosome remodeler that facilitates nucleosome unwrapping and then subsequently slides remaining histones along the DNA. This work elucidates the role of PICH in chromatin-bridge dissolution, and might provide molecular insights into the mechanisms of related SNF2 proteins.

On ratio measures of heterogeneity for meta-analyses

As a measure of heterogeneity in meta-analysis, the coefficient of variation (CV) has been recently considered, providing researchers with a complement to the very popular I 2 measure. While I 2 measures the proportion of total variance that is due to variance of the random effects, the CV is the ratio of the standard deviation of the random effects to the effect of interest. Consequently, the CV provides a different measure of the extent of heterogeneity in a meta-analysis relative to the effect being measured. However, very large CV values can occur when the effect is small making interpretation difficult. The purpose of this article is two-fold. First, we consider variants of the CV that exist in the interval 0 , 1 which may be preferable for some researchers. Second, we provide interval estimators for the CV and its variants with excellent coverage properties. We perform simulation studies based on simulated and real data sets and draw comparisons between the methods. For both the CV and its transformations, we recommend confidence intervals using the propagating imprecision method or, as a simpler alternative but at the expense of slightly worse performance in terms of coverage, combining reduced-coverage confidence intervals for the two parameters. These interval estimators typically have better coverage properties for the CV measure than those previously considered.

GRADE guidelines 32: GRADE offers guidance on choosing targets of GRADE certainty of evidence ratings

OBJECTIVE

To provide practical principles and examples to help GRADE users make optimal choices regarding their ratings of certainty of evidence using a minimally or partially contextualized approach.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Based on the GRADE clarification of certainty of evidence in 2017, a project group within the GRADE Working Group conducted iterative discussions and presentations at GRADE Working Group meetings to refine this construct and produce practical guidance.

RESULTS

Systematic review and health technology assessment authors need to clarify what it is in which they are rating their certainty of evidence (i.e., the target of their certainty rating). The decision depends on the degree of contextualization (partially or minimally contextualized), thresholds (null, small, moderate or large effect threshold), and where the point estimate lies in relation to the chosen threshold(s). When the 95% confidence interval crosses multiple possible thresholds (i.e., including both large benefit and large harm), it is not worthwhile for authors to determine the target of certainty rating.

CONCLUSION

GRADE provides practical principles to help systematic review and health technology assessment authors specify the target of their certainty of evidence rating.

GRADE guidelines 27: how to calculate absolute effects for time-to-event outcomes in summary of findings tables and Evidence Profiles

OBJECTIVES

To provide GRADE guidance on how to prepare Summary of Findings tables and Evidence Profiles for time-to-event outcomes with a focus on the calculation of the corresponding absolute effect estimates.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

This guidance was justified by a research project identifying frequent errors and limitations in the presentation of time-to-event outcomes in the Summary of Findings tables. We developed this guidance through an iterative process that included membership consultation, feedback, presentation, and discussion at meetings of the GRADE Working Group.

RESULTS

Review authors need to carefully consider the definition of the outcome of interest; although often the event is used as label for the outcome of interest (e.g., death or mortality), the event-free survival (e.g., overall survival) is reported throughout individual studies. Review authors should calculate the absolute effect correctly, either for the event or absence of the event. We also provide examples on how to calculate the absolute effects for events and the absence of events for various baseline or control group risks and time points.

CONCLUSIONS

This article aids in the development of Summary of Findings tables and Evidence Profiles, including time-to-event outcomes, and addresses the most common scenarios when calculating absolute effects in order to provide an accurate interpretation.

Bidirectional signal exchanges and their mechanisms during joint attention interaction - A hyperscanning fMRI study

Social interactions are essential to our daily life. We tested the hypothesis that social interactions during joint attention (JA) require bidirectional communication, each with a different mechanism. We used a novel multivariate functional connectivity analysis, which enables obtaining directed pathways between four regions at each time-frequency point, with hyper-scanning MRI data of real-time JA interaction. Constructing multiple "4-regional directed pathways" and counting the number of times, regions engaged in feedforward or feedback processes in the 'sender' or the 'receiver brains, we obtained the following. (1) There were more regions in feedforward than in feedback processes (125 versus 99). (2) The right hemisphere was more involved in feedforward (74 versus 33), while the left hemisphere in feedback (66 versus 51). (3) The dmPFC was more engaged in feedforward (73 versus 44) while the TPJ in both (49 versus 45). (4) The dmPFC was more involved in the sending processes (i.e. initiation of feedforward and feedback) while the TPJ in the receiving processes. (5) JA interaction was involved with high MRI frequencies (0.04-0.1 Hz), while continues interactions by low MRI frequencies (0.01-0.04 Hz). (6) Initiation and responding to JA (i.e. IJA and RJA) evolved with composite neural systems: similar systems for pathways that included the dmPFC, vmPFC and the STS, and different systems for pathways that included the TPJ, vmPFC, PCC and the STS. These findings have important consequences in the basic understanding of social interaction and could help in diagnose and follow-up of social impairments.

The number needed to treat in pairwise and network meta-analysis and its graphical representation

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to present ways to graphically represent a number needed to treat (NNT) in (network) meta-analysis (NMA).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A barrier to using NNT in NMA when an odds ratio (OR) or risk ratio (RR) is used is the determination of a single control event rate (CER). We discuss approaches to calculate a CER, and illustrate six graphical methods for NNT from NMA. We illustrate the graphical approaches using an NMA of cognitive enhancers for Alzheimer's dementia.

RESULTS

The NNT calculation using a relative effect measure, such as OR and RR, requires a CER value, but different CERs, including mean CER across studies, pooled CER in meta-analysis, and expert opinion-based CER may result in different NNTs. An NNT from NMA can be presented in a bar plot, Cates plot, or forest plot for a single outcome, and a bubble plot, scatterplot, or rank-heat plot for ≥2 outcomes. Each plot is associated with different properties and can serve different needs.

CONCLUSION

Caution is needed in NNT interpretation, as considerations such as selection of effect size and CER, and CER assumption across multiple comparisons, may impact NNT and decision-making. The proposed graphs are helpful to interpret NNTs calculated from (network) meta-analyses.

Towards the estimation of effect measures in studies using respondent-driven sampling

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly common sampling technique to recruit hidden populations. Statistical methods for RDS are not straightforward due to the correlation between individual outcomes and subject weighting; thus, analyses are typically limited to estimation of population proportions. This manuscript applies the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) to construct confidence intervals for effect measures such as risk difference (difference of proportions) or relative risk in studies using RDS. To illustrate the approach, MOVER is used to construct confidence intervals for differences in the prevalence of demographic characteristics between an RDS study and convenience study of injection drug users. MOVER is then applied to obtain a confidence interval for the relative risk between education levels and HIV seropositivity and current infection with syphilis, respectively. This approach provides a simple method to construct confidence intervals for effect measures in RDS studies. Since it only relies on a proportion and appropriate confidence limits, it can also be applied to previously published manuscripts.