Predicting the likelihood of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in premature neonates

Predictive modeling of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in premature infants: the impact of new diagnostic standards

Aim

To provide a risk prediction for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in premature infants under the new diagnostic criteria and establish a prediction model.

Methods

In this study, we retrospectively collected case data on preterm infants admitted to the NICU from August 2015 to August 2018. A lasso analysis was performed to identify the risk factors associated with the development of BPD. A nomogram predictive model was constructed in accordance with the new diagnostic criteria for BPD.

Result

A total of 276 preterm infants were included in the study.The incidence of BPD under the 2018 diagnostic criteria was 11.2%. Mortality was significantly higher in the BPD group than the non-BPD group under the 2018 diagnostic criteria (P < 0.05). Fourteen possible variables were selected by the Lasso method, with a penalty coefficient λ=0.0154. The factors that eventually entered the logistic regression model included birth weight [BW, OR = 0.9945, 95% CI: 0.9904-0.9979], resuscitation way (OR = 4.8249, 95% CI: 1.3990-19.4752), intrauterine distress (OR = 8.0586, 95% CI: 1.7810-39.5696), score for SNAPPE-II (OR = 1.0880, 95% CI: 1.0210-1.1639), hematocrit (OR = 1.1554, 95% CI: 1.0469-1.2751) and apnea (OR = 7.6916, 95% CI: 1.4180-52.1236). The C-index after adjusting for fitting deviation was 0.894.

Conclusion

This study made a preliminary exploration of the risk model for early prediction of BPD and indicated good discrimination and calibration in premature infants.

Association between Serum Lactate and Morbidity and Mortality in Neonates: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Lactate is a marker of hypoperfusion in critically ill patients. Whether lactate is useful for identifying and stratifying neonates with a higher risk of adverse outcomes remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate the association between lactate and morbidity and mortality in neonates.

METHODS

A meta-analysis was performed to determine the association between blood lactate levels and outcomes in neonates. Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from inception to 1 May 2021. A total of 49 observational studies and 14 data accuracy test studies were included. The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies and the QUADAS-2 tool for data accuracy test studies. The primary outcome was mortality, while the secondary outcomes included acute kidney injury, necessity for renal replacement therapy, neurological outcomes, respiratory morbidities, hemodynamic instability, and retinopathy of prematurity.

RESULTS

Of the 3184 articles screened, 63 studies fulfilled all eligibility criteria, comprising 46,069 neonates. Higher lactate levels are associated with mortality (standard mean difference, -1.09 [95% CI, -1.46 to -0.73]). Using the estimated sensitivity (0.769) and specificity (0.791) and assuming a prevalence of 15% for adverse outcomes (median of prevalence among studies) in a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 neonates, assessing the lactate level alone would miss 346 (3.46%) cases (false negative) and wrongly diagnose 1776 (17.76%) cases (false positive).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher lactate levels are associated with a greater risk of mortality and morbidities in neonates. However, our results do not support the use of lactate as a screening test to identify adverse outcomes in newborns. Research efforts should focus on analyzing serial lactate measurements, rather than a single measurement.

Pulmonary phenotypes of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in the preterm infant

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) remains the most common complication of premature birth, imposing a significant and potentially life-long burden on patients and their families. Despite advances in our understanding of the mechanisms that contribute to patterns of lung injury and dysfunctional repair, current therapeutic strategies remain non-specific with limited success. Contemporary definitions of BPD continue to rely on clinician prescribed respiratory support requirements at specific time points. While these criteria may be helpful in broadly identifying infants at higher risk of adverse outcomes, they do not offer any precise information regarding the degree to which each compartment of the lung is affected. In this review we will outline the different pulmonary phenotypes of BPD and discuss important features in the pathogenesis, clinical presentation, and management of these frequently overlapping scenarios.

MALAT1 binds to miR-188-3p to regulate ALOX5 activity in the lung inflammatory response of neonatal bronchopulmonary dysplasia

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) causes high morbidity and mortality in infants, but no effective preventive or therapeutic agents have been developed to combat BPD. In this study, we assessed the expression of MALAT1 and ALOX5 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from BPD neonates, hyperoxia-induced rat models and lung epithelial cell lines. Interestingly, we found upregulated expression of MALAT1 and ALOX5 in the experimental groups, along with upregulated expression of proinflammatory cytokines. According to bioinformatics prediction, MALAT1 and ALOX5 simultaneously bind to miR-188-3p, which was downregulated in the experimental groups above. Silencing MALAT1 or ALOX5 and overexpressing miR-188-3p inhibited apoptosis and promoted the proliferation of hyperoxia-treated A549 cells. Suppressing MALAT1 or overexpressing miR-188-3p increased the expression levels of miR-188-3p but decreased the expression levels of ALOX5. Moreover, RNA immunoprecipitation (RIP) and luciferase assays showed that MALAT1 directly targeted miR-188-3p to regulate ALOX5 expression in BPD neonates. Collectively, our study demonstrates that MALAT1 regulates ALOX5 expression by binding to miR-188-3p, providing novel insights into potential therapeutics for BPD treatment.

CREB1 Transcriptionally Activates LTBR to Promote the NF-κB Pathway and Apoptosis in Lung Epithelial Cells

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a prevalent chronic pediatric lung disease. Aberrant proliferation and apoptosis of lung epithelial cells are important in the pathogenesis of BPD. Lymphotoxin beta receptor (LTBR) is expressed in lung epithelial cells. Blocking LTBR induces regeneration of lung tissue and reverts airway fibrosis in young and aged mice. This study is aimed at revealing the role of LTBR in BPD. A mouse model of BPD and two in vitro models of BPD using A549 cells and type II alveolar epithelial (ATII) cells were established by exposure to hyperoxia. We found that LTBR and CREB1 exhibited a significant upregulation in lungs of mouse model of BPD. LTBR and CREB1 expression were also increased by hyperoxia in A549 and ATII cells. According to results of cell counting kit-8 assay and flow cytometry analysis, silencing of LTBR rescued the suppressive effect of hyperoxia on cell viability and its promotive effect on cell apoptosis of A549 and ATII cells. Bioinformatics revealed CREB1 as a transcriptional factor for LTBR, and the luciferase reporter assay and ChIP assay subsequently confirmed it. The NF-κB pathway was regulated by LTBR. CREB1 induced LTBR expression at the transcriptional level to regulate NF-κB pathway and further modulate A549 and ATII cells viability and apoptosis. In conclusion, this study revealed the CREB1/LTBR/NF-κB pathway in BPD and supported the beneficial role of LTBR silence in BPD by promoting viability and decreasing apoptosis of lung epithelial cells.

Utility of umbilical cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels for predicting bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants with very low and extremely low birth weight

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

There remains controversy regarding vitamin D deficiency and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in very low birth weight (VLBW) and extremely low birth weight (ELBW) preterm infants. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency assessed by umbilical cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] in preterm infants in northeast China and to evaluate the ability and optimal threshold of 25(OH)D for predicting BPD.

METHODS

The clinical data of VLBW and ELBW preterm infants with known cord-blood 25(OH)D levels were analyzed retrospectively. Infants were divided into groups based on their cord-blood 25(OH)D levels and BPD diagnosis. Logistic regression was performed to assess the risk factors for BPD and a nomogram was established. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the optimal threshold of cord-blood 25(OH)D concentration for predicting BPD.

RESULTS

A total of 267 preterm infants were included, of which 225 (84.3%) exhibited vitamin D deficiency and 134 (50.2%) were diagnosed with BPD. The incidence of BPD was lower in the group with a 25(OH)D level of >20 ng/ml than in the other groups (P = 0.024). Infants with BPD had lower cord-blood 25(OH)D levels than those without BPD (11.6 vs. 13.6 ng/ml, P = 0.016). The multivariate logistic regression model revealed that 25(OH)D levels (odds ratio [OR] = 0.933, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.891-0.977), gestational age (OR = 0.561, 95% CI: 0.425-0.740), respiratory distress syndrome (OR = 2.989, 95% CI: 1.455-6.142), and pneumonia (OR = 2.546, 95% CI: 1.398-4.639) were independent risk factors for BPD. A predictive nomogram containing these four risk factors was established, which had a C-index of 0.814. ROC curve analysis revealed that the optimal cutoff value of 25(OH)D for predicting BPD was 15.7 ng/ml (area under the curve = 0.585, 95% CI: 0.523-0.645, P = 0.016), with a sensitivity of 75.4% and a specificity of 42.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

A cord-blood 25(OH)D level of <15.7 ng/ml was predictively valuable for the development of BPD. The nomogram established in this study can help pediatricians predict the risk of BPD more effectively and easily.

Development and verification of a risk prediction model for bronchopulmonary dysplasia in very low birth weight infants

BACKGROUND

To analyze the risk factors of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) of very low birth weight infants (VLBWIs), and to develop and verify a risk prediction model of BPD.

METHODS

The data of 611 VLBWIs from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) of a tertiary grade A hospital in Suzhou from January 2017 to September 2019 were collected. The data was randomly divided into the modeling set (451 cases) and the validation set (160 cases). Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the data, and the model was examined by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The grouped data was used to verify the sensitivity and specificity of the model.

RESULTS

The study found that neonatal asphyxia, the positive rate of sputum culture, neonatal sepsis, neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS), blood transfusions (≥3), patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), the time of invasive mechanical ventilation, the duration of oxygen therapy, and the time of parenteral nutrition were the independent risk factors of BPD, while 1 min Apgar score was a protective factor. The model formula was Z=neonatal asphyxia * 1.229 + the positive rate of sputum culture * 1.265 + neonatal sepsis * 1.677 + NRDS * 1.848 + blood transfusions (≥3) * 1.455 + PDA * 1.835 - 1 min Apgar score * 0.25 + the time of invasive mechanical ventilation * 0.123 + the duration of oxygen therapy * 0.09 + the time of parenteral nutrition * 0.057 - 8.077. The area under the ROC curve of this model was 0.965 (95% CI: 0.946-0.983), with a sensitivity of 93.7% and a specificity of 91.3%. Verification of this prediction model showed a sensitivity of 92.9% and a specificity of 76%, demonstrating that the effects of this model were satisfactory.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk prediction model had a good predictive effect for the risk of BPD in VLBWIs, and can provide a reference for preventive treatment and nursing intervention.

Role of macrophages in fetal development and perinatal disorders

In the fetus and the neonate, altered macrophage function has been implicated not only in inflammatory disorders but also in developmental abnormalities marked by altered onset, interruption, or imbalance of key structural changes. The developmental role of macrophages were first noted nearly a century ago, at about the same time when these cells were being identified as central effectors in phagocytosis and elimination of microbes. Since that time, we have made considerable progress in understanding the diverse roles that these cells play in both physiology and disease. Here, we review the role of fetal and neonatal macrophages in immune surveillance, innate immunity, homeostasis, tissue remodeling, angiogenesis, and repair of damaged tissues. We also discuss the possibility of therapeutic manipulation of the relative abundance and activation status of macrophage subsets in various diseases. This article combines peer-reviewed evidence from our own studies with results of an extensive literature search in the databases PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus. IMPACT: We have reviewed the structure, differentiation, and classification of macrophages in the neonatal period. Neonatal macrophages are derived from embryonic, hepatic, and bone marrow precursors. Macrophages play major roles in tissue homeostasis, innate immunity, inflammation, tissue repair, angiogenesis, and apoptosis of various cellular lineages in various infectious and inflammatory disorders. Macrophages and related inflammatory mediators could be important therapeutic targets in several neonatal diseases.

Comparison of Multivariable Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Models for Predicting Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia or Death in Very Preterm Infants

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is the most prevalent and clinically significant complication of prematurity. Accurate identification of at-risk infants would enable ongoing intervention to improve outcomes. Although postnatal exposures are known to affect an infant's likelihood of developing BPD, most existing BPD prediction models do not allow risk to be evaluated at different time points, and/or are not suitable for use in ethno-diverse populations. A comprehensive approach to developing clinical prediction models avoids assumptions as to which method will yield the optimal results by testing multiple algorithms/models. We compared the performance of machine learning and logistic regression models in predicting BPD/death. Our main cohort included infants <33 weeks' gestational age (GA) admitted to a Canadian Neonatal Network site from 2016 to 2018 (n = 9,006) with all analyses repeated for the <29 weeks' GA subcohort (n = 4,246). Models were developed to predict, on days 1, 7, and 14 of admission to neonatal intensive care, the composite outcome of BPD/death prior to discharge. Ten-fold cross-validation and a 20% hold-out sample were used to measure area under the curve (AUC). Calibration intercepts and slopes were estimated by regressing the outcome on the log-odds of the predicted probabilities. The model AUCs ranged from 0.811 to 0.886. Model discrimination was lower in the <29 weeks' GA subcohort (AUCs 0.699-0.790). Several machine learning models had a suboptimal calibration intercept and/or slope (k-nearest neighbor, random forest, artificial neural network, stacking neural network ensemble). The top-performing algorithms will be used to develop multinomial models and an online risk estimator for predicting BPD severity and death that does not require information on ethnicity.

Respiratory Severity Score greater than or equal to 2 at birth is associated with an increased risk of mortality in infants with birth weights less than or equal to 1250 g

OBJECTIVE

Respiratory Severity Score (RSS), the product of mean airway pressure and the fraction of inspired oxygen may estimate the severity of neonatal lung disease. We aimed to determine if RSS on the first day of life is associated with mortality and/or comorbidities in infants born less than or equal to 1250 g.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the NYS Perinatal Data System for premature inborn infants from 2006 to 2016 born between 400 and 1250 g (N = 730). RSS was divided into three categories: less than 2 (low, n = 310), 2-5 (moderate, n = 265), greater than 5 (high, n = 155). The primary outcome was mortality. Logistic regression determined associations with composite outcomes of death or respiratory morbidity (respiratory support after 36 weeks postmenstrual age), death or neurologic morbidity (periventricular leukomalacia) or high-grade intraventricular hemorrhage), and death/severe morbidity (death or neurologic morbidity or respiratory morbidity or stage ≥ III retinopathy of prematurity or necrotizing enterocolitis) by RSS category.

RESULTS

Birthweight and gestational age were lower with the increasing RSS category (p < .001 for both). Mode of delivery, antenatal steroids, and maternal age did not differ by RSS. In adjusted analyses, there were increased odds of mortality in infants with moderate RSS (odds ratio [95% confidence intervals]: 3.1 (1.7-5.4) and high 4.5 (2.5-8.2). These groups had higher odds of death or respiratory morbidity, death or neurologic morbidity, and death/severe morbidity.

CONCLUSION

Higher RSS (≥2) is associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidities in infants born less than or equal to 1250 g.