Cross-national patterns of intergenerational continuities in childbearing in developed countries

The recent decline in period fertility in England and Wales: Differences associated with family background and intergenerational educational mobility

During 2010-20, period fertility in England and Wales fell to its lowest recorded level. The aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the decline in period fertility in two dimensions: differentials by the education of a woman's parents (family background) and by a woman's education in relation to that of her parents (intergenerational educational mobility). The analysis finds a substantial decline in fertility in each education group, whether defined by a woman's parents' education alone or by a woman's own education relative to her parents' education. Considering parents' and women's own education together helps differentiate fertility further than analysing either generation's education in isolation. Using these educational mobility groups more clearly shows a narrowing of TFR differentials over the decade, but timing differences persist.

Intergenerational transmission of fertility in Spain among cohorts born during the first half of twentieth century

It is known that historically fertility is correlated between generations of the same family. These links tend to be explained either in terms of the biogenetic determinants of reproduction or by the transmission of intra-familial values associated with reproduction and family life. Less is known about the micro-determinants of these links or about the extent to which the progressive modernization of reproductive outcomes over the past century has affected behavior. In this paper, we will address these issues for Spain with data from the Socio-Demographic Survey (SDS) carried out in 1991 and including data on cohorts born between 1900 and 1946. These data enable us to explore the micro determinants of fertility at different points of time during this period. Our results point to the existence of a significant correlation between intergenerational reproductive outcomes that persists and strengthens throughout this period of demographic change. Results confirm the importance of birth order in large family groups where firstborn offspring are more likely to have larger families than subsequent siblings. There is also evidence that the strength of these intergenerational ties increases with the onset of more modern demographic behavior characterized by sharply declining fertility. The results presented here promise to condition future debates on the subject.

Polarized adult fertility patterns following early parental death

Death of a parent during childhood has become rare in developed countries but remains an important life course event that may have consequences for family formation. This paper describes the link between parental death before age 18 and fertility outcomes in adulthood. Using the large national 2011 French Family Survey (INSEE-INED), we focus on the 1946-66 birth cohorts, for whom we observe entire fertility histories. The sample includes 11,854 respondents who have lost at least one parent before age 18. We find a strong polarization of fertility behaviours among orphaned males, more pronounced for those coming from a disadvantaged background. More often childless, particularly when parental death occurred in adolescence, some seem to retreat from parenthood. But orphaned men and women who do become parents seem to embrace family life, by beginning childbearing earlier and having more children, especially when the deceased parent is of the same sex.

Preferences for a mixed-sex composition of offspring: A multigenerational approach

Parents with two boys or two girls are more likely to have a third child than those with a 'sex mix'. However, little is known on whether these 'mixed-sex preferences' extend beyond the nuclear family. This study leverages the random variation in sex at birth to assess whether the sex of nieces and nephews, in combination with own children, matters for fertility choices. Using three-generational data from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I show that extended families (including grandparents, their children, and their grandchildren) are collectively more likely to have three or more grandchildren when lacking sex mix, whether the first two grandchildren are siblings or cousins. I explore the pathways for these offspring sex preferences, finding support for a preference for an uninterrupted line of male descendants. This multigenerational approach also contributes a new estimation strategy that causally estimates the effects of family sizes on outcomes beyond fertility.

Maternal age at birth and daughter's fecundability

STUDY QUESTION

Do daughters of older mothers have lower fecundability?

SUMMARY ANSWER

In this cohort study of North American pregnancy planners, there was virtually no association between maternal age ≥35 years and daughters' fecundability.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Despite suggestive evidence that daughters of older mothers may have lower fertility, only three retrospective studies have examined the association between maternal age and daughter's fecundability.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Prospective cohort study of 6689 pregnancy planners enrolled between March 2016 and January 2020.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO) is an ongoing pre-conception cohort study of pregnancy planners (age, 21-45 years) from the USA and Canada. We estimated fecundability ratios (FR) for maternal age at the participant's birth using multivariable proportional probabilities regression models.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Daughters of mothers ≥30 years were less likely to have previous pregnancies (or pregnancy attempts) or risk factors for infertility, although they were more likely to report that their mother had experienced problems conceiving. The proportion of participants with prior unplanned pregnancies, a birth before age 21, ≥3 cycles of attempt at study entry or no follow-up was greater among daughters of mothers <25 years. Compared with maternal age 25-29 years, FRs (95% CI) for maternal age <20, 20-24, 30-34, and ≥35 were 0.72 (0.61, 0.84), 0.92 (0.85, 1.00), 1.08 (1.00, 1.17), and 1.00 (0.89, 1.12), respectively.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Although the examined covariates did not meaningfully affect the associations, we had limited information on the participants' mother. Differences by maternal age in reproductive history, infertility risk factors and loss to follow-up suggest that selection bias may partly explain our results.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our finding that maternal age 35 years or older was not associated with daughter's fecundability is reassuring, considering the trend towards delayed childbirth. However, having been born to a young mother may be a marker of low fecundability among pregnancy planners.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

PRESTO was funded by NICHD Grants (R21-HD072326 and R01-HD086742) and has received in-kind donations from Swiss Precision Diagnostics, FertilityFriend.com, Kindara.com, and Sandstone Diagnostics. Dr Wise is a fibroid consultant for AbbVie, Inc.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

n/a.

Intergenerational persistence of family formation trajectories among teenage-mothers and -fathers in Sweden

In this paper, we address the questions of whether early family trajectories of parents are reflected in childbearing teenagers, and how socio-economic and family background factors impact these intergenerational correlations. We use within-dyad sequence analysis to examine combined marital and childbearing trajectories, up to age 30, of two generations of a representative sample of childbearing teenagers born between 1975 and 1985 and their progenitors, drawn from the Swedish population register data. We find evidence for within-family persistence of early family trajectories, with better matches across family state sequences for dyads composed of childbearing teenagers and their parents, than for dyads composed of childbearing teenagers and parents of random birth cohort peers. Regression analysis shows that these intergenerational associations are stronger and occur among later-born siblings from non-traditional family backgrounds, and among families with lower socio-economic backgrounds. This study fills gaps in the knowledge of intergenerational family life course dynamics beyond the early parenthood event.

Sibling influence on family formation: A study of social interaction effects on fertility, marriage, and divorce

This study examined social interaction effects on family formation and dissolution, asking whether fertility, marital, and divorce behavior spread in the sibling network. Using panel data from the German SOEP (1984 - 2016; N = 4,521 individuals), we estimated discrete-time event history models with random effects at the individual to examine whether siblings' transitions to parenthood, marriage, and divorce influence an individual's chance to have children, marry, and divorce. Results show that the hazard of becoming a parent increased in the short term after a sibling had a child. Similarly, the hazard of getting married increased following a sibling's marriage. Tentative evidence also suggested that transition rates to divorce increased in the longer term following a sibling's divorce. Furthermore, we found evidence for social interaction effects across different transitions in the process of family formation, as the transition rates to marriage decreased after a sibling divorced. Conversely, the risk of divorce decreased following a sibling's entry to marriage. Overall, these findings illustrate that the impact of network partners on demographic behavior is not limited to the same behavioral domain and might be negative as well as positive.

Grandparenthood in China and Western Europe: An analysis of CHARLS and SHARE

Grandparenthood is a fascinating research area that not only brings together three generations and multiple roles in different life domains, but also echoes social contexts across historical times and places. Comparative research on grandparenthood, however, rarely includes non-western countries. This article seeks to answer the question of how grandparenthood differs between Western Europe and China by using comparable representative surveys of older adults. We extend the literature in two ways by showing that: 1) compared to Western Europe, becoming a grandparent occurs earlier and is virtually universal in both Urban and Rural China - the probability of being a grandparent is over 80% for Chinese by the time they are 55, while the same cannot be said for Western Europeans until they are aged between 70 and 80; and 2) the role-overlaps with grandparenthood are different for older Chinese and Western Europeans. The probability of being a working grandparent in Rural China is about twice that in Western Europe, while the rate is similar to Western Europeans for Urban Chinese. Chinese grandparents are also more likely to live with their children than Western Europeans. Conversely, as all family transitions come earlier for Chinese but life expectancy is shorter, the probabilities that grandparenthood overlaps with widowhood and filial roles are similar to that in Western Europe. Taken together, this study provides an overarching picture of the characteristics of grandparenthood in different societies that are fundamental to the meaning, performance, and impact of grandparental roles and relevant to a better understanding of grandparenthood worldwide.

How Does Birth Order and Number of Siblings Affect Fertility? A Within-Family Comparison Using Swedish Register Data

This study examines how the sibling constellation in childhood is associated with later fertility behaviour of men and women in Sweden. Administrative register data are used to investigate how birth order affects completed fertility, how the number of siblings and birth order jointly affect completed fertility, and in both cases if there are gender differences in these relationships. Our data consist of all fully biologically related siblings in Sweden whose mothers were born between 1915 and 1935 (the younger generation is born primarily in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s; N = 1,472,813). To study the direct effect of birth order on fertility, sibling comparison models are applied, while to analyse the joint effect of number of siblings and birth order, the sample was stratified by birth order. Results show that higher birth order has a negative effect on completed fertility for women; hence, earlier-born women show overall higher fertility than later-born women. Parity transitions indicate that later-born women are less likely to have two or more children, while no overall gradient for men can be found. The number of siblings is more positively associated with completed fertility for firstborn than for later-born individuals. We conclude that the position in the family of origin can be seen as an additional factor that influences fertility, although effect sizes are rather small.

Is the Family Size of Parents and Children Still Related? Revisiting the Cross-Generational Relationship Over the Last Century

In most developed countries, the fertility levels of parents and children are positively correlated. This article analyzes the strength of the intergenerational transmission of family size over the last century, including a focus on this reproduction in large and small families. Using the large-scale French Family Survey (2011), we show a weak but significant correlation of approximately 0.12–0.15, which is comparable with levels in other Western countries. It is stronger for women than men, with a gender convergence across cohorts. A decrease in intergenerational transmission is observed across birth cohorts regardless of whether socioeconomic factors are controlled, supporting the idea that the family of origin has lost implicit and explicit influence on fertility choices. As parents were adopting the two-child family norm, the number of siblings lost its importance for having two children, but it continues to explain lower parity and, above all, three-child families. This suggests that the third child has increasingly become an “extra child” (beyond the norm) favored by people from large families.

Is Educating Girls the Best Investment for South Asia? Association Between Female Education and Fertility Choices in South Asia: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Background: Universal education is a key strategy to enhance the well-being of individuals and improve the economic and social development of societies. A large proportion of school-aged girls in developing countries are not attending schools. Approximately one-third of South Asian girls do not attend school and in some regions only one in four girls attend primary school. Eliminating gender disparities in school attendance may lead to improvements in female education and reproductive health.

Objectives: To conduct a systematic review of the available data from international organizations and regional registries to explore the association between female education and fertility choices in South Asia.

Methods: Systematic review and synthesis of secondary data.

Data sources: MEDLINE, Embase, Google Scholar, World Health Organization, World Bank, United Nations Population Fund, Millennium Development Goals, Institute of Health Management, World Fact book, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and regional registries were searched for papers published between 1970 and October 2016 and the included papers contained data from 1960.

Study eligibility criteria and data abstraction process: Studies were included if they contained data on (i) female education and/or literacy levels in South Asia; and (ii) fertility behavior in South Asian females. Quality of the included studies and extracted data were assessed by two independent reviewers.

Results: According to the World Bank report in 2016, the female literacy rate in South Asia has increased from 45.5% in 2000 to 57.0% in 2010 while a decreased trend of total fertility rate (i.e., number of children born per woman) was observed from 6.0 in 1960 to 2.6 in 2014.

Limitations: Only studies in English were included.

Conclusion: A negative relationship seems to exist between levels of literacy and total fertility rates in South Asian females which if further improved may contribute to longer-term improvements in maternal and child health.

The Effect of Childhood Family Size on Fertility in Adulthood: New Evidence From IV Estimation

Although fertility is positively correlated across generations, the causal effect of children's experience with larger sibships on their own fertility in adulthood is poorly understood. With the sex composition of the two firstborn children as an instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of sibship size on adult fertility using high-quality data from Norwegian administrative registers. Our study sample is all firstborns or second-borns during the 1960s in Norwegian families with at least two children (approximately 110,000 men and 104,000 women). An additional sibling has a positive effect on male fertility, mainly causing them to have three children themselves, but has a negative effect on female fertility at the same margin. Investigation into mediators reveals that mothers of girls shift relatively less time from market to family work when an additional child is born. We speculate that this scarcity in parents' time makes girls aware of the strains of life in large families, leading them to limit their own number of children in adulthood.

Education and the Transition to Fatherhood: The Role of Selection Into Union

Although advanced education has been found to be consistently associated with a later transition to parenthood for women, findings about education and the transition to parenthood have been much less consistent for men, and no stylized fact has emerged from the literature. We argue that the inconsistency of findings for men is due to the fact that the selection process involved in union formation has been disregarded in earlier studies. We hypothesize that men's educational attainment consistently and positively affects the transition to fatherhood via higher rates of union formation. We apply multiprocess event-history analysis to data from the Generations and Gender Surveys for 10 European countries. Our results show indeed a consistent positive effect of education on the transition to fatherhood, but it operates chiefly through selection into union. Failing to account for this selection process leads to a major underestimation of the salience of education for the transition to fatherhood.

Intergenerational transmission of parent-child relationship quality: Evidence from a multi-actor survey

Intergenerational transmission is a long-standing interest of social science research. However, little attention has been devoted to the study of transmission of relationship quality between several generations of family members. Exploiting multigenerational multi-actor data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), we estimate multilevel models to investigate whether, in three-generation families, relationship quality between the middle generation and the oldest (that is, grandparent) generation predicts relationship quality between the youngest generation of adolescent children and the middle generation. Our results reveal evidence of intergenerational transmission of emotional closeness, conflict, and ambivalence. Transmission was more consistently observed when emanating from ties to grandfathers than from ties to grandmothers. A hypothesis concerning differences in the strength of transmission between East Germany and West Germany found no support. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations and perspectives for future research.

Is fertility associated with the number of siblings of the couple? Evidence from India

The influence of family on an individual's fertility has long been an important topic of interest in fertility research. Although studies conducted mostly in developed countries found a significant bearing of fertility of the parents on the fertility of the children, there is a lack of formal research around this topic in India. The present study analyses the effect of sibling size of husband and wife on the completed family size of women using information of 5506 ever-married women aged 45-49 years incorporated in the India Human Development Survey-II (2011-2012). Inferential statistics, bivariate, Chi-square and Poisson regression were used as the methods of analysis. The unadjusted estimates of Poisson regression reveal sibling size of women (IRR: 1.02; p < 0.001) and husband (IRR: 1.01; p < 0.001) have a positive correlation with the completed family size of women. However, in the adjusted model, the effect of sibling size especially of husband diminishes gradually in the presence of socio-economic covariates of the women.

Sibling similarity in family formation

Sibling studies have been widely used to analyze the impact of family background on socioeconomic and, to a lesser extent, demographic outcomes. We contribute to this literature with a novel research design that combines sibling comparisons and sequence analysis to analyze longitudinal family-formation trajectories of siblings and unrelated persons. This allows us to scrutinize in a more rigorous way whether sibling similarity exists in family-formation trajectories and whether siblings' shared background characteristics, such as parental education and early childhood family structure, can account for similarity in family formation. We use Finnish register data from 1987 through 2007 to construct longitudinal family-formation trajectories in young adulthood for siblings and unrelated dyads (N = 14,257 dyads). Findings show that family formation is moderately but significantly more similar for siblings than for unrelated dyads, also after controlling for crucial parental background characteristics. Shared parental background characteristics add surprisingly little to account for sibling similarity in family formation. Instead, gender and the respondents' own education are more decisive forces in the stratification of family formation. Yet, family internal dynamics seem to reinforce this stratification such that siblings have a higher probability to experience similar family-formation patterns. In particular, patterns that correspond with economic disadvantage are concentrated within families. This is in line with a growing body of research highlighting the importance of family structure in the reproduction of social inequality.

Beyond Transmission: Intergenerational Patterns of Family Formation Among Middle-Class American Families

Research about parental effects on family behavior focuses on intergenerational transmission: that is, whether children show the same family behavior as their parents. This focus potentially overemphasizes similarity and obscures heterogeneity in parental effects on family behavior. In this study, we make two contributions. First, instead of focusing on isolated focal events, we conceptualize parents’ and their children’s family formation holistically as the process of union formation and childbearing between ages 15 and 40. We then discuss mechanisms likely to shape these intergenerational patterns. Second, beyond estimating average transmission effects, we innovatively apply multichannel sequence analysis to dyadic sequence data on middle-class American families from the Longitudinal Study of Generations (LSOG; N = 461 parent-child dyads). The results show three salient intergenerational family formation patterns among this population: a strong transmission, a moderated transmission, and an intergenerational contrast pattern. We examine what determines parents’ and children’s likelihood to sort into a specific intergenerational pattern. For middle-class American families, educational upward mobility is a strong predictor of moderated intergenerational transmission, whereas close emotional bonds between parents and children foster strong intergenerational transmission. We conclude that intergenerational patterns of family formation are generated at the intersection of macro-structural change and family internal psychological dynamics.