Exploring the population-level impact of MenB vaccination via modeling: Potential for serogroup replacement

Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.

Models to predict the public health impact of vaccine resistance: A systematic review

Pathogen evolution is a potential threat to the long-term benefits provided by public health vaccination campaigns. Mathematical modeling can be a powerful tool to examine the forces responsible for the development of vaccine resistance and to predict its public health implications. We conducted a systematic review of existing literature to understand the construction and application of vaccine resistance models. We identified 26 studies that modeled the public health impact of vaccine resistance for 12 different pathogens. Most models predicted that vaccines would reduce overall disease burden in spite of evolution of vaccine resistance. Relatively few pathogens and populations for which vaccine resistance may be problematic were covered in the reviewed studies, with low- and middle-income countries particularly under-represented. We discuss the key components of model design, as well as patterns of model predictions.

Protecting UK adolescents and adults against meningococcal serogroup B disease

INTRODUCTION

Meningococcal serogroup B disease (MenB) is endemic in the UK and continues to cause the majority of invasive meningococcal disease. Two broadly protective protein-based MenB vaccines are now licensed and available, both with wide age indications. Whilst the UK recently became the first country to routinely vaccinate infants against MenB, a recommendation has not yet been extended to older age groups who can also now benefit from these vaccines.

AREAS COVERED

This review summarizes the evidence supporting the rationale for adolescents and adults in the UK to consider MenB vaccination.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Although MenB disease is rare, the UK reports one of the highest annual incidence rates within the European region, with over a third of cases occurring in those aged 10+ years. Overall, the case fatality rate following MenB disease in the UK is 4.2% but can be more than twice as high in teenagers and adults than in infants, and survivors are often left with life-changing disabling sequelae. MenB outbreaks are unpredictable and continue to occur in regions where it is endemic. These outbreaks often affect students attending school or university, with living on a campus being an important risk factor. Concerned individuals in this age group should consider MenB vaccination.

Meningococcal carriage in children and young adults in the Philippines: a single group, cross-sectional study

This cross-sectional prevalence study investigates meningococcal carriage for the first time in a Southeast Asian population. Posterior pharyngeal swabs were collected between August 2013 and March 2014 from 937 healthy Filipinos aged 5-24 years attending school or university in Manila. Of these, 35 were found to be carriers giving an overall carriage prevalence of 3·7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·6-5·2]. Carriage was associated with age (P < 0·001) and was highest (9·0%, 95% CI 5·5-13·8) in subjects aged 10-14 years, but was comparatively low (<3%) in all other age groups considered. This suggests that an immunization programme in the Philippines designed to reduce carriage acquisition and induce herd immunity may require a vaccine dose before the age of 10 years. Serogroup B was most commonly carried (65·7%, 95% CI 47·8-80·9), with a small number of carriers for serogroups C, Y and W also present. Two individuals (5·7%, 95% CI 0·7-19·2) who were simultaneously carrying multiple serogroups were identified. This exploratory study provides valuable insight into the asymptomatic carriage of Neisseria meningitidis in a healthy subset of the Filipino population and illustrates the importance of generating local carriage data.