Long-term efficacy data for the recombinant zoster vaccine: impact on public health and cost effectiveness in Germany

The public health impact of recombinant herpes zoster vaccination in adults over 50 years in Spain

The recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) is included in the Spanish National Immunisation Programme for adults 65 years of age (years), with a potential progressive catch-up program for adults 66-80 years, starting with 80 years. However, the risk of herpes zoster (HZ) increases significantly from 50 years. We estimated the public health impact (PHI) of vaccinating adults ≥50 years in Spain versus no vaccination, using a Markov model adapted to the Spanish setting. The model simulated a hypothetical ≥50 years cohort over a lifetime, with inputs from Spanish publications, databases, or publications from other countries where Spanish data were unavailable. Base case inputs included 67.7% RZV coverage and 61.1% second dose compliance. Outputs included clinical outcomes avoided, healthcare resource use avoided, and number-needed-to-vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one HZ case. Deterministic (DSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were also conducted. The model estimated that, compared with no vaccination, vaccinating adults ≥50 years in Spain (N = 19,850,213) with RZV could prevent 1,533,353 HZ cases, 261,610 postherpetic neuralgia episodes, 274,159 other complications, and 138 deaths through the cohorts' remaining lifetime, mostly in the 50-59 years cohort. Furthermore, 3,500,492 primary care visits and 71,156 hospitalizations could be avoided, with NNV = 9 to prevent one HZ case. DSA predicted NNV = 7 to prevent one HZ case when second dose compliance was increased to 100%. PSA demonstrated ≥200,000 and ≥1,400,000 cases could be prevented in 86.9% and 18.4% of simulations, respectively. Starting RZV from 50 years could therefore prevent a substantial number of HZ cases and complications. Increasing RZV coverage and second dose compliance could further alleviate PHI of HZ.

Public health impact of herpes zoster vaccination on older adults in Singapore: a modeling study

In Singapore, population aging and rising life expectancy are increasing herpes zoster (HZ) burden, which may be reduced by vaccination. The present study modeled the public health impact of HZ vaccination in Singapore using ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model adapted with Singapore-specific key model inputs, where available. Base case analysis was conducted in adults ≥ 50 years of age (YOA), exploring three vaccination strategies (no vaccination, recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV], zoster vaccine live [ZVL]) under mass vaccination setting (30% coverage). Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. Out of 1.51 million adults in 2021 (base case population), 406,513 (27.0%) cases of HZ, 68,264 (4.5%) cases of post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), and 54,949 (3.6%) cases of other complications were projected without vaccination. RZV was estimated to avoid 73,129 cases of HZ, 11,094 cases of PHN, and 9,205 cases of other complications over the subjects' remaining lifetime; ZVL would avoid 17,565 cases of HZ, 2,781 cases of PHN, and 1,834 cases of other complications. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one case of HZ/PHN was lower for RZV (7/41) than ZVL (26/163). Among all five age-stratified cohorts (50-59/60-64/65-69/70-79/≥80 YOA), RZV (versus no vaccination/ZVL) avoided the largest number of cases in the youngest cohort, 50-59 YOA. Results were robust under scenario and sensitivity analyses. Mass vaccination with RZV is expected to greatly reduce the public health burden of HZ among Singapore individuals ≥ 50 YOA. Findings support value assessment and decision-making regarding public health vaccination strategies for HZ prevention in Singapore.

Herpes zoster in older adults: Impact on carbon footprint in the United States

We provide estimates for (I) annual herpes zoster (HZ) cases, (II) carbon costs related to healthcare utilization, and (III) annual carbon emissions due to HZ among ≥50 years of age (YOA) United States (US) population. We estimated the annual number of HZ cases in the US based on available incidence data and demographic data of individuals ≥50 YOA. Both the healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) associated with HZ cases and the unit carbon dioxide equivalent (i.e. CO2e) costs associated with each type of HCRU in the US were estimated based on literature and studies available online. The carbon footprint associated with HZ annually among US adults ≥50 YOA was estimated by multiplying the unit carbon estimates by the HCRU. In the US population aged ≥50 YOA in 2020 (i.e. approximately 118 million), approximately 1.1 million cases of HZ occur annually assuming no vaccination. Based on 2 sources of HCRU the average kgCO2e per HZ patient ranged from 61.0 to 97.6 kgCO2e, with values by age group ranging from 40.9 kgCO2e in patients aged 50-59 to 195.9 kgCO2e in patients ≥80 YOA. The total annual HZ associated carbon ranged between 67,000 and 107,000 tons of CO2e in the US population aged ≥50 YOA. The impact of HZ on carbon footprint in the US results in considerable greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions. Assuming no vaccination, the burden of HZ is projected to rise over the coming years with the aging populations consequently worsening its impact on GHG emissions. (Figure 1).

Herpes zoster in Belgium: a new solution to an old problem

Herpes zoster (HZ) is caused by reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus. The life-time risk of developing HZ is ~ 30%. Management of HZ can be challenging due to limited efficacy of oral antivirals on pain control, and neuropathic pain that may require aggressive management. Post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) can cause substantial pain and occurs in up to one-quarter of patients with HZ. Up to 48,000 HZ cases are estimated to occur annually in Belgium, estimated to cost almost 7 million euros in treatment. The recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV, Shingrix, GSK) was approved in Europe in 2017. In 2022, the Belgian Superior Health Council recommended vaccination with RZV for immunocompetent adults aged ≥ 60 years, and immunocompromised patients aged ≥ 16 years, including those receiving immunosuppressive therapy, in particular Janus kinase inhibitors. RZV showed high age-independent efficacy in preventing HZ infection and in clinical trials that has since been confirmed in real-world effectiveness studies. In clinical trials, protection was sustained for at least 10 years after vaccination. As of 1 November 2023, RZV is reimbursed for three immunocompromised patient groups aged ≥ 18 years: malignancy treated in the past 5 years, HIV infection, and organ or haematological stem cell transplantation or are a transplant candidate. HZ is vaccine-preventable and RZV provides a highly effective tool for HZ prevention. While reimbursement for some at-risk groups is welcomed, reimbursement currently falls well short of Superior Health Council recommendations. Adult immunisation strategies should be promoted to achieve high vaccination coverage against HZ, contributing to healthy aging in Belgium.

The epidemiologic and economic impact of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in South Korea: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

In South Korea, the National Immunization Program has included one-dose varicella vaccination for 1-year-olds since 2005. This study examines the potential impact of introducing a two-dose varicella vaccination for children, along with zoster vaccination for adults, using either the zoster vaccine live (ZVL) or recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV).

METHODS

The investigation considered four strategies in a base case scenario. The first involved introducing zoster vaccination for 60-year-olds, with a 60 % coverage. The second strategy combined zoster vaccination with a second-dose varicella vaccination for 4-year-olds, with a 90 % coverage. An age-structured model spanning 50 years was employed, assuming a zoster vaccine catch-up campaign over the initial 5 years. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted, assessing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs), and net loss under different ages at zoster vaccination (50, 60, 65, and 70 years) and varying willingness-to-pay (WTP) levels from ₩40 million ($34,998) to ₩84 million ($74,000).

RESULTS

All strategies were cost-effective and significantly reduced herpes zoster (HZ) incidence, preventing approximately 3,077,000 to 7,609,000 cases, depending on the chosen strategy. The combined strategy prevented around 4,950,000 varicella and 653,000 HZ cases additionally. RZV outperformed ZVL by preventing twice as many HZ cases and offering greater QALY gains. However, ZVL was more cost-effective due to its lower cost. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that RZV became more cost-effective at higher WTP thresholds, exceeding ₩60.9 million ($53,193) in terms of ICER and ₩62.5 million ($54,591) for INMBs and net loss. The optimal age for zoster vaccination was 60 years concerning ICER but 50 years regarding INMB.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining RZV with a two-dose varicella vaccination strategy reduced the disease burden and improved QALY more effectively, though ZVL remained more cost-effective at lower WTP levels. Decisions regarding vaccination policies should be balanced between the public health needs and WTP levels.

Updated Public Health Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Canadian Adults Aged 50 Years and Older

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to update previously estimated public health impact and cost effectiveness of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) for the prevention of herpes zoster (HZ) in Canadians aged ≥50 years using longer-term RZV efficacy and waning data and real-world coverage and completion.

METHODS

A multicohort Markov model was used to conduct a cost-utility analysis comparing RZV with no HZ vaccination among Canadians aged ≥50 years. Real-world data were used for first-dose coverage (17.5%) and second-dose completion (65%). Vaccine efficacy and waning data were applied from up to 8-year follow-up from the ZOE-50 and ZOE-70 clinical trials. Incremental costs and benefits were calculated using a lifetime horizon from the healthcare payer (base case) and societal perspectives. A discount rate of 1.5% was applied to costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS

The model estimated that RZV would prevent 303,835 HZ cases, 83,256 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, 39,653 other complications, and 99 HZ-related deaths compared with no HZ vaccination. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated to be $27,486 and $22,097 per QALY (2022 Canadian dollars [CAN$]) from the healthcare payer and societal perspectives, respectively. The base-case ICER was most sensitive to a lower percentage of initial HZ cases with PHN. Almost all probabilistic sensitivity analysis simulations (98.1%) resulted in ICERs

CONCLUSIONS

RZV is expected to remain a cost-effective option for Canadian adults aged ≥50 years when using longer-term RZV efficacy and waning estimates, although the estimated public health impact was smaller than in the previous analysis (due to lower coverage/completion estimates).

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Grants

• GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals

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Affiliation(s)

Sydney George GSK, Mississauga, ON, Canada.
Justin Carrico RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
Katherine A Hicks RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
Dessi Loukov GSK, Mississauga, ON, Canada
Cheryl Ng GSK, Singapore, Singapore
Jessica Regan GSK, Mississauga, ON, Canada
Nikolaos Giannelos GSK, Wavre, Belgium

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Modelling the Public Health Burden of Herpes Zoster and the Impact of Adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Five Selected Countries in Southeast Asia

INTRODUCTION

Herpes zoster (HZ) can cause substantial patient morbidity and lead to large healthcare costs. However, the disease burden of HZ in Southeast Asia may be underestimated. This study aimed to estimate the public health burden of HZ and the impact of vaccinating adults aged ≥ 50 years old in five Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam), with adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccination.

METHODS

For each country, we adapted a static multicohort Markov model developed with a 1-year cycle length and lifetime horizon. Demographics were obtained from the World Health Organization, HZ incidence from a worldwide meta-regression reporting Asian-specific values, proportions of postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) and non-PHN complications from local/regional studies, and vaccine efficacy from a long-term follow-up trial. First-dose coverage and second-dose compliance were assumed to be 30% and 70%, respectively. A one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis (OWSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were performed to assess the robustness and uncertainty of inputs for each country.

RESULTS

Without RZV, it was estimated that there would be a total of approximately 10 million HZ cases, 2.1 million PHN cases, and 1.4 million non-PHN complications in individuals aged ≥ 50 years included in the model. Introducing RZV under 30% coverage could avoid approximately 2.2 million (22%) HZ cases, almost 500,000 (21%) PHN cases, and around 300,000 (22%) non-PHN complications. OWSA showed that first-dose coverage and initial HZ incidence had the largest impact on the estimated number of HZ cases avoided. The number needed to vaccinate ranged from 15 to 21 to prevent one case of HZ and from 68 to 104 to prevent one case of PHN across each country.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that there is substantial HZ disease burden in older adults for the five selected countries in Southeast Asia, negatively impacting national healthcare systems. Introducing RZV could potentially reduce this burden. A graphical abstract is available with this article.

Cost-effectiveness of the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) against herpes zoster: An updated critical review

The objective of this study was to critically review the cost-effectiveness (CE) of the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) against herpes zoster (HZ). A literature review was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane between January 1, 2017, and February 28, 2022, and on select public healthcare agency websites to identify and collect data from CE studies comparing RZV to zoster vaccine live (ZVL) or to no vaccination. Study characteristics, inputs, and outputs were collected. The overall CE of RZV was assessed. RZV vaccination against HZ is cost-effective in 15 out of 18 studies included in the present review. Varying incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) observed may be associated with different assumptions on the duration of protection of RZV, as well as different combinations of structural and disease-related study (model) inputs driving the estimation of ICERs.

How large could the public health impact of introducing recombinant zoster vaccination for people aged ≥50 years in five Latin American countries be?

This study aimed to: (1) estimate the disease burden of herpes zoster (HZ) and (2) assess the potential public health impact of introducing adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccination in adults aged ≥50 years in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia using the ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) static multicohort Markov model. The model followed individuals aged ≥50 years from administration of RZV over their remaining lifetime. Inputs were based, most often, on local data. First dose coverage was assumed to be 35%, with 75% second dose compliance. It was predicted that without RZV, there would be 23,558,675 HZ cases, 6,115,981 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, and 7,058,779 non-PHN complications in the five countries, but introducing RZV under assumed coverage could avoid 4,583,787 (19%) HZ cases, 1,130,751 (18%) PHN cases, and 1,373,419 (19%) non-PHN complications. Also, 10427,504 (20%) doctor's office visits and 1,630,201 (19%) days of hospitalization could be averted in the three countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) with available input data. The numbers needed to be vaccinated to avoid one case of HZ were 9-10 across countries, and to avoid one case of PHN, 35-40. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the input parameters with the largest impact on the estimated number of HZ cases avoided were first dose coverage, initial HZ incidence, and vaccine efficacy waning. In conclusion, the introduction of RZV for older adults in Latin America could greatly reduce the public health burden of HZ and reduce the related doctor visits and hospitalization days.

Public health impact of herpes zoster vaccination on older adults in Hong Kong

The growing burden of herpes zoster (HZ) in Hong Kong, due to an aging population with increasing life expectancy, may be reduced by vaccination. This study aimed to estimate public health impact of HZ vaccination in Hong Kong. The ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model was adapted with Hong Kong-specific key model inputs/assumptions, where available. Base case analysis involved adults ≥50 years of age (YOA), exploring three vaccination strategies (no vaccination/recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV]/zoster vaccine live [ZVL]) under private market (5% coverage) and mass vaccination (40% coverage) settings. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base case population (3.13 million), without vaccination, 891,024 HZ (28.4%), 156,097 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) (5.0%), and 38,755 (1.2%) HZ ophthalmicus (HZO) were projected over their remaining lifetime. Mass RZV vaccination reduced HZ, PHN, and HZO cases by 204,875 (-23.0%), 31,949 (-20.5%), and 8,471 (-21.9%), respectively, which was 4-5 times that reduced with ZVL. RZV was more efficient than ZVL, with lower number needed to vaccinate to prevent one HZ/PHN/HZO case (RZV: 7/40/148; ZVL: 27/163/709). Among all age cohorts, the greatest reduction in cases was projected for RZV (versus no vaccination/ZVL) in the youngest cohort, 50-59 YOA. Results were robust under scenario and sensitivity analyses. HZ burden in Hong Kong is substantial. Mass RZV vaccination is expected to considerably reduce public health burden of HZ among individuals ≥50 YOA, compared with no vaccination/ZVL. Results may support value assessment and decision-making regarding vaccination strategies for HZ prevention in Hong Kong.

The value of herpes zoster prevention in people aging with HIV: A narrative review

OBJECTIVE

Review the evidence on the incidence and impact of herpes zoster among people living with HIV and the potential impact of recombinant zoster vaccine for people aging with HIV.

METHODS

Narrative review.

RESULTS

Although antiretroviral therapy has substantially reduced the risk of herpes zoster among people living with HIV, they remain at an increased risk compared with the general population. Among people aging with HIV, aging per se is now the main risk factor for herpes zoster. Beyond pain, herpes zoster is also associated with a risk of sight-threatening complications in case of trigeminal involvement, disseminated diseases and stroke. Post-herpetic neuralgia is also a potential threat to the quality of life of people aging with HIV. The recombinant zoster vaccine has demonstrated high and sustained efficacy in the prevention of herpes zoster, post-herpetic neuralgia, and other herpes zoster complications in the general population. Immunogenicity data among people living with HIV with high CD4+ T-cell count and controlled viral load are comparable to those among the general population. Real-life effectiveness data indicate high vaccine efficacy among immunocompromised patients other than people living with HIV. High vaccine price, vaccine hesitancy, and limited disease and vaccine awareness represent potential hurdles for high vaccine uptake among people aging with HIV in Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

Herpes zoster, and its complications, is a vaccine-preventable disease of aging people. Given its impact on quality of life, herpes zoster prevention using recombinant zoster vaccine is a safe strategy to be considered in every person aging with HIV.

Healthy ageing: Herpes zoster infection and the role of zoster vaccination

Populations are ageing worldwide, with considerable time lived in ill-health, putting upwards pressure on healthcare budgets. Healthy ageing is defined as maintaining functional ability, including the ability to: meet basic needs; learn, grow and make decisions; be mobile; build and maintain relationships; and contribute to society. The risk and impact of infectious diseases increase with age due to immunosenescence. Vaccination can help to prevent disease in older adults, promoting healthy ageing and active lives. Herpes zoster (HZ) occurs when the varicella zoster virus is reactivated due to declining immunity. HZ is common, with a lifetime risk of one-third, and increases in incidence with age. HZ is associated with severe and intense pain, substantially affecting the functional status of patients as well as their overall health-related quality of life. HZ and its complications may result in prolonged morbidity, including persistent pain (post-herpetic neuralgia, PHN), hearing impairment, vision loss and increased risk of stroke and myocardial infarction. HZ and PHN are difficult to treat, substantiating the benefits of prevention. Vaccines to prevent HZ include a recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV). RZV has shown efficacy against the HZ burden of disease and HZ burden of interference on activities of daily living of over 90% in immunocompetent adults aged ≥50 years. Vaccine efficacy against HZ was maintained at over 70% at 10 years post-vaccination. Adult vaccination, including against HZ, has the potential to reduce burden of disease, thus helping to maintain functioning and quality of life to support healthy ageing in older adults.

The potential impact of increased recombinant zoster vaccine coverage on the burden of herpes zoster among adults aged 50-59 years

INTRODUCTION

Recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) is recommended in the US for prevention of herpes zoster (HZ) in adults aged ≥50 years. Vaccination rates remain suboptimal for adults 50-59 years compared with adults ≥50 years overall. The objective of this study was to model changes in outcomes associated with improved RZV vaccination coverage in US adults 50-59 years.

METHODS

A multicohort Markov model compared a scenario using real-world vaccination coverage for US adults 50-59 years in 2020 versus scenarios assuming higher coverage. Outcomes, based on a lifetime horizon, included HZ cases and complications avoided, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and costs. Model inputs included HZ epidemiology, RZV vaccine efficacy, coverage, adverse events, and costs, based on published literature and US sources. Some inputs were updated from previous models, including real-world estimates of RZV coverage, series completion, and reflecting longer-term data on waning of vaccine efficacy. The model utilized a cohort size of 42,756,488 individuals based on the 2020 US population census.

RESULTS

The model projected that increasing RZV coverage in adults 50-59 years from 7.3 % to 14.6 % (to coverage for adults 60-64 years in 2020) would avoid an additional 504,468 HZ cases, 42,077 postherpetic neuralgia cases, and 56,247 cases of other HZ-associated complications. The increase in vaccine coverage would result in higher vaccination-related costs of $1,172,411,566, but the avoided HZ cases and complications would be expected to result in direct cost savings of $721,973,386 and indirect cost savings of $593,497,480 from avoided productivity loss. Overall, a gain of 5,230 discounted QALYs and cost savings of $143,059,299 from a societal perspective would be realized.

CONCLUSION

Modestly higher RZV coverage in US adults 50-59 years could reduce the clinical burden associated with HZ and may result in societal cost savings. These findings demonstrate the potential value of increasing RZV vaccination in this population.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Update of the Adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Japanese Older Adults

Introduction

This study aimed to update cost-effectiveness and public health impact estimates of the two-dose recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccination against herpes zoster (HZ) in the Japanese population aged 65 years. List price of the vaccine and latest RZV efficacy and waning estimates were incorporated.

Methods

A multicohort static Markov model with a cycle length of 1 year was used to follow a hypothetical cohort of one million people aged 65 years over their remaining lifetime (base case). Age-stratified vaccine efficacy and waning rates were updated on the basis of the latest clinical trial data (interim ZOE-LTFU; NCT02723773). First-dose coverage was assumed at 40%, and second-dose compliance was assumed at 95%. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 2% annually, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated from payer and societal perspectives. The societal perspective considered productivity loss due to suffering HZ, or due to suffering HZ and time required for vaccination. Sensitivity analyses explored the overall uncertainties in the model. Scenario analyses for Japanese adults aged 50, 60, 70, 80, ≥ 50, and ≥ 65 years (main scenario) were conducted. An ICER below ¥5–6 million/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was considered cost-effective.

Results

RZV was estimated to prevent 71,423 HZ cases and 15,858 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases per million people aged 65 years compared with no vaccine in Japan. The ICER was ¥4,205,515 from a payer perspective and was most sensitive to assumptions regarding vaccine efficacy waning, proportion of patients with HZ developing PHN, and HZ incidence. From societal perspectives, ICERs were ¥3,854,192 (productivity loss from suffering HZ only) and ¥4,622,212 (productivity loss from suffering HZ and time required for vaccination). Overall, the results were considered robust under extensive sensitivity and scenario analyses.

Conclusion

Vaccination against HZ with RZV is cost-effective compared with no vaccination in Japanese adults aged 65 years.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13555-022-00744-8.