Spatial distribution and associated factors of measles vaccination among children aged 12-23 months in Ethiopia. A spatial and multilevel analysis

Spatial distribution of zero-dose children in Ethiopia: evidence for a targeted intervention from a large-scale cross-sectional evaluation survey

Background

Ethiopia is the fourth leading contributor to the global total of zero-dose children (those who lack the first dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis containing vaccine) and has substantial regional variations in zero-dose children. This study explored the spatial pattern of zero-dose children aged 12-35 months in Ethiopia.

Methods

A survey was conducted in pastoralist regions, developing regions, newly-established regions, conflict-affected areas, underserved urban populations, hard-to-reach areas, internally displaced populations, and refugees. Spatial autocorrelation was measured using the Global Moran'sIstatistic. Getis-Ord Gi* statistics was applied to calculate the spatial variability of the high and low prevalence rates of zero-dose children. The spatial interpolation technique was also applied to estimate unknown values that fall between known values. Inverse distance weighting interpolation method was used to predict the risk of zero-dose children. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used for the spatial analysis.

Results

A total of 3,646 children aged 12-35 months were included in the study. The spatial distribution of zero-dose children in Ethiopia was non-random (Global Moran'sI = 0.178971, p < 0.001). According to the hotspot analysis, western, eastern and northern parts of Somali and western and central parts of Afar regions had the highest load of zero-dose children (hotspot areas) followed by the Northeastern part of Amhara and southeastern part of Oromia regions. On the other hand, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples, Sidama, and the Eastern part of the Southwest Ethiopia peoples regions were identified as cold spot areas. The spatial interpolation analysis corresponded with the hotspot analysis results where western and central parts of Afar and western, eastern and northern parts of Somali regions were identified as high-risk areas for zero-dose children. However, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Harari, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples, Sidama, Southwest Ethiopia Peoples, and parts of Oromia were found to be low-risk areas for zero-dose children.

Conclusion

The spatial analysis identified that zero-dose children had a significant spatial variation across the study areas. High clusters of zero-dose children were detected in Afar and Somali regions. Implementing routine and mop-up vaccination campaigns in the identified hotspot areas will help Ethiopia to improve coverage and reduce immunization inequalities.

Low Measles Vaccination Coverage and Spatial Analysis of High Measles Vaccination Dropout in Ethiopia's Underprivileged Areas

(1) Background: Measles remains a major cause of disease and death worldwide, especially in the World Health Organization African Region. This study aimed to estimate the coverage of measles vaccinations and map the spatial distribution of measles vaccination dropout in Ethiopia; (2) Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Ethiopia's underprivileged areas. The study included 3646 mothers/caregivers of children. ArcGIS for the spatial analysis, Global Moran's I statistic for spatial autocorrelation, and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics for hot spot analysis were applied; (3) Results: Overall, coverages of measles-containing-vaccine first- and second-doses were 67% and 35%, respectively. Developing regions had the lowest coverages of measles-containing-vaccine first- and second-doses, 46.4% and 21.2%, respectively. On average, the measles vaccination dropout estimate was 48.3%. Refugees had the highest measles vaccination dropout estimate (56.4%). The hot spot analysis detected the highest burden of measles vaccination dropout mainly in the northeastern parts of Ethiopia, such as the Afar Region's zones 1 and 5, the Amhara Region's North Gondar Zone, and peripheral areas in the Benishangul Gumuz Region's Assosa Zone; (4) Conclusions: The overall measles vaccination coverages were relatively low, and measles vaccination dropout estimates were high. Measles vaccination dropout hot spot areas were detected in the northeastern parts of Ethiopia.

Patterns of basic pneumococcal conjugated vaccine coverage in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2018; further analysis of Ethiopian DHS (2016-2019)

Background

Geographic variation is crucial in spotting performance gaps in immunization programs, including the Pneumococcal Conjugated Vaccine (PCV). This will help speed up targeted vaccination and disease elimination programs in resource-limited countries. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the geographic variation and determinants of PCV vaccination coverage among children aged under five years old in Ethiopia.

Methods

This analysis was carried out based on the 2016 and 2019 nationally representative Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). We included two surveys of 10,640 children aged 12-23 months. The spatial analysis also covered 645 and 305 clusters with geographical information for both 2016 and 2019, respectively. We explored the spatial distribution, global spatial autocorrelation, spatial interpolation, and Stats Can windows of children with PCV-3 vaccination. P-values were generated using 999 Monte Carlo simulations to identify statistically significant clusters. To understand the coverage of PCV-3 in all areas of the country, we employed the ordinary Kriging interpolation method to estimate the coverage in unsampled areas. We also used hierarchical multivariate logistic regression to identify the factors associated with the utilization of the PCV vaccine (full vaccination).

Results

Except for Addis Ababa, children in all regions have lower odds of receiving all three PCV vaccines compared to the Tigray region. Residence, sex of a child, mother's literacy status, household wealth index, and place of delivery were significant factors associated with receiving the third dose of PCV. Spatial analysis also showed the Somali and Afar regions had the lowest coverage, while the Addis Ababa and Tigray regions had higher coverage in both surveys.

Conclusion

Even though the coverage of the full PCV vaccine improved from 2016 to 2019, variation was observed among regions and between rural and urban areas. The wealth index and educational status of mothers were the most important determinants of PCV vaccine utilization. Hence, the mass campaign might boost coverage in nomadic and semi-nomadic regions and rural areas. Similarly, programs that narrow the gap due to low socioeconomic differences should be formulated and implemented to increase uptake and general coverage.

Attack rate, case fatality rate and determinants of measles infection during a measles outbreak in Ethiopia: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although Ethiopia is working towards measles elimination, a recurrent measles outbreak has occurred. To take appropriate measures, previously, many fragmented and inconsistent outbreak investigations were done, but there is no consolidated evidence on attack rate, case fatality rate, and determinants of measles infection during the measles outbreak. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify cumulative evidence on attack rate, case fatality rate, and determinants of measles infection during the outbreak.

METHODS

A systematic literature review and Meta-analysis was used. We searched Google Scholar, Medline/PubMed, Cochrane/Wiley Library, EMBASE, Science Direct, and African Journals Online databases using different terms. Investigations that applied any study design, data collection- and analysis methods related to the measles outbreak investigation were included. Data were extracted in an Excel spreadsheet and imported into STATA version 17 software for meta-analysis. The I2 statistics were used to test heterogeneity, and 'Begg's and 'Egger's tests were used to assess publication bias. The odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was presented using forest plots.

RESULTS

Eight measles outbreak investigations with 3004 measles cases and 33 deaths were included in this study. The pooled attack rate (A.R.) and case fatality rate were 34.51/10,000 [95% CI; 21.33-47.70/10,000] population and 2.21% [95% CI; 0.07-2.08%], respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed the highest attack rate of outbreaks in the Oromia region (63.05 per 10,000 population) and the lowest in the Amhara region (17.77 per 10,000 population). Associated factors with the measles outbreak were being unvaccinated (OR = 5.96; 95% CI: 3.28-10.82) and contact history (OR = 3.90; 95% CI: 2.47-6.15).

CONCLUSION

Our analysis revealed compelling evidence within the outbreak descriptions, highlighting elevated attack and case fatality rates. Measles infection was notably linked to being unvaccinated and having a contact history. Strengthening routine vaccination practices and enhancing contact tracing measures are vital strategies moving forward.

Machine learning algorithms' application to predict childhood vaccination among children aged 12-23 months in Ethiopia: Evidence 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey dataset

INTRODUCTION

Childhood vaccination is a cost-effective public health intervention to reduce child mortality and morbidity. But, vaccination coverage remains low, and previous similar studies have not focused on machine learning algorithms to predict childhood vaccination. Therefore, knowledge extraction, association rule formulation, and discovering insights from hidden patterns in vaccination data are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to predict childhood vaccination among children aged 12-23 months using the best machine learning algorithm.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design with a two-stage sampling technique was used. A total of 1617 samples of living children aged 12-23 months were used from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey dataset. The data was pre-processed, and 70% and 30% of the observations were used for training, and evaluating the model, respectively. Eight machine learning algorithms were included for consideration of model building and comparison. All the included algorithms were evaluated using confusion matrix elements. The synthetic minority oversampling technique was used for imbalanced data management. Informational gain value was used to select important attributes to predict childhood vaccination. The If/ then logical association was used to generate rules based on relationships among attributes, and Weka version 3.8.6 software was used to perform all the prediction analyses.

RESULTS

PART was the first best machine learning algorithm to predict childhood vaccination with 95.53% accuracy. J48, multilayer perceptron, and random forest models were the consecutively best machine learning algorithms to predict childhood vaccination with 89.24%, 87.20%, and 82.37% accuracy, respectively. ANC visits, institutional delivery, health facility visits, higher education, and being rich were the top five attributes to predict childhood vaccination. A total of seven rules were generated that could jointly determine the magnitude of childhood vaccination. Of these, if wealth status = 3 (Rich), adequate ANC visits = 1 (yes), and residency = 2 (Urban), then the probability of childhood vaccination would be 86.73%.

CONCLUSIONS

The PART, J48, multilayer perceptron, and random forest algorithms were important algorithms for predicting childhood vaccination. The findings would provide insight into childhood vaccination and serve as a framework for further studies. Strengthening mothers' ANC visits, institutional delivery, improving maternal education, and creating income opportunities for mothers could be important interventions to enhance childhood vaccination.

Spatial multilevel analysis of age at death of under-5 children and associated determinants: EDHS 2000-2016

OBJECTIVE

This study examines trends, spatial distribution and determinants of age at death of under-5 children in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

This study used secondary data from the 2000, 2005, 2011 and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys. A multilevel partial ordinal logistic regression model was used to assess the effects of variables on the age at death of children under 5 years.

SETTING

Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

The final analysis included a sample of 3997 deaths of newborns, infants and toddlers.

RESULTS

A total of 1508, 1054, 830 and 605 deaths of under-5 children were recorded in the 2000, 2005, 2011 and 2016 survey years, respectively. The death of newborns, infants and toddlers showed a significant decrease from 2000 to 2016, with reductions of 33.3% to 17.4%, 42.4% to 12.6% and 45.2% to 11.6%, respectively. The analysis using Global Moran's Index revealed significant spatial autocorrelation in mortality for each survey year (p<0.05). The intraclass correlation of age at death of under-5 children within regions was substantial. Furthermore, the odds of newborn deaths among under-5 children (OR: 0.638, 95% CI: 0.535, 0.759) were lower for those delivered in health institutions compared with those delivered at home.

CONCLUSIONS

Throughout the survey years from 2000 to 2016, newborn children had higher mortality rates compared with infants and toddlers, and significant spatial variations were observed across different zones in Ethiopia. Factors such as child's sex, age of mother, religion, birth size, sex of household head, place of delivery, birth type, antenatal care, wealth index, spatial autocovariate, Demographic and Health Survey year, place of residence and region were found to be significant in influencing the death of under-5 children in Ethiopia. Overall, there has been a decreasing trend in the proportion of under-5 child mortality over the four survey years in Ethiopia.

Epidemiology of confirmed measles virus cases, surveillance, incidence, and associated factors in Eritrea: 18-year retrospective analysis

Background

Despite the outstanding measles vaccine coverage (MVC) in Eritrea, sporadic outbreaks are not uncommon. Therefore, understanding the incidence of laboratory-confirmed measles virus cases, related factors, and spatial inequalities in testing and surveillance remains crucial. In this analysis, we evaluated the incidence and spatiotemporal distribution of measles in Eritrea. An evaluation of the factors associated with measles vaccination and IgM positive (+) febrile rash was also undertaken.

Methods

A retrospective (period: 2002-2020) study was carried out by abstracting data from the integrated disease surveillance and response database (IDSR). Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression. Spatial variability and distribution of confirmed cases was evaluated using ArcGIS Pro version 3.0.1.

Results

In total, 9,111 suspected cases, 2,767 [1,431 (51.7%) females] were serologically tested. The median (IQR) age, minimum-maximum age were 7 years (IQR: 4-14 years) and 1 month-97 years, respectively. Among the 608(21.9%) laboratory-confirmed cases, 534 (87.8%) were unvaccinated and 53 (9.92%) were < 1 year old. The crude incidence rate for MV was 14/100,000 persons. The age-specific positivity rate per 100,000 suspected cases tested was 21.5 with individuals >30 years presenting with the highest rates (69.9/100,000). Higher odds (OR) of MV test positivity was associated with age at onset - higher in the following age-bands [10-14 years: OR = 1.6 (95%CI, 1.1-2.2, value of p = 0.005); 15-29 years: OR = 7.0 (95%CI, 5.3-9.2, value of p = 0.005); and > =30 years: OR = 16.7 (95%CI, 11.7-24) p < 0.001]. Other associations included: Address - higher in Anseba (OR = 2.3, 95%CI: 1.7-3.1, value of p<0.001); Debub (OR = 2.7, 95%CI: 1.9-3.9, value of p < 0.001); Gash-Barka (OR = 15.4, 95%CI: 10.9-21.7, value of p < 0.001); Northern Red Sea (OR = 11.8, 95%CI: 8.5-16.2, value of p < 0.001); and Southern Red Sea (OR = 14.4, 95%CI: 8.2-25.2, value of p < 0.001). Further, test positivity was higher in health centers (OR = 2.5, 95%CI: 1.9-3.4, value of p < 0.001) and hospitals (OR = 6.8, 95%CI: 5.1-9.1, value of p < 0.001). Additional factors included vaccination status - higher in the unvaccinated (OR = 14.7, 95%CI: 11.4-19.1, value of p < 0.001); and year of onset of rash - (higher >2015: OR = 1.4, 95%CI: 1.1-1.7, value of p<0.001). Uptake of measles vaccine associated with a similar complement of factors.

Conclusion

In large part, efforts to eliminate measles in Eritrea are hindered by disparities in vaccine coverage, under-surveillance, and low vaccination rates in neighboring countries. Enhanced surveillance and regional micro planning targeting hard-to-reach areas can be an effective strategy to improve measles elimination efforts in Eritrea.

Factors associated with post-neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: Using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demographic and health survey

Background

Post-neonatal mortality is the number of deaths of infants aged 28 days through 11 months and is expressed as post-neonatal deaths per 1000 live births per year. This study aimed to identify the factors that influence post-neonatal death using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demographic and health survey (EMDHS2019).

Methods

The study included 2126 post neonates born from mothers who had been interviewed about births in the five years before the survey. The survey gathering period was carried out from March 21, 2019, to June 28, 2019. The data were first analyzed with a chi-square test of association, and then relevant factors were evaluated with binary logistic regression models and the results were interpreted using adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and confidence interval(CI) of parameters.

Results

The prevalence of post neonatal death was 16% (95% CI: 15.46, 17.78). The study also showed that not vaccinated post-neonates (AOR = 2.325, 95% CI: 1.784, 3.029), mothers who were not receiving any tetanus injection (AOR = 2.891, 95% CI: 2.254, 3.708), mothers age group 15-24(AOR = 1.836, 95% CI: 1.168, 2.886), Afar (AOR = 2.868, 95% CI: 1.264, 6.506), Somali(AOR = 2.273, 95% CI: 1.029, 5.020), Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region(SNNP) (AOR = 2.619, 95% CI: 1.096, 6.257), 2–4 birth orders (AOR = 1.936, 95% CI: 1.225, 3.060), not attend antenatal care(ANC) visit (AOR = 6.491, 95% CI: 3.928, 10.726), and preceding birth interval less than 24 months (AOR = 1.755, 95% CI: 1.363,2.261) statistically associated with a higher risk of post neonatal death. Although not given anything other than breast milk (AOR = 0.604, 95% CI 0.462, 0.789), urban residents (AOR = 0.545, 95% CI: 0.338, 0.877), single births (AOR = 0.150, 95% CI: 0.096, 0.234), less than 3 children in a family (AOR = 0.665, 95% CI 0.470, 0.939) and the head of the male household (AOR = 0.442, 95% CI: 0.270, 0.724) were statistically associated with a lower risk of post-neonatal mortality.

Conclusions

It is highly suggested that maternal and child health care services (including antenatal care visits, postnatal care visits, and immunization) be strengthened and monitored during the early stages of infancy. Mothers from Somali, Afar, and SNNP regions, as well as multiple births, rural residents, and those giving birth to a child with a birth gap of fewer than 24 months, demand special care.