Prediction of infection caused by extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae: development of a clinical decision-making nomogram

Fever lasting 48 hours as a predictive factor of ESBL-producing bacteria in non-critically ill patients with urinary tract infection

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most prevalent urological condition worldwide. Choosing appropriate antibiotics for patients who have fever before receiving a culture result is challenging. This retrospective study enrolled patients 394 patients hospitalized at Gangneung Asan Hospital for UTI from May 2017 to April 2021. Fever at 48 h of hospitalization was the analysis point, as this is when the response to antibiotic therapy manifest, although the results of antibiogram are not available. Multivariate analysis was performed to assess the correlation between ESBL producing bacteria (EPB) and fever at 48 h. Overall, 36.3% of patients had EPB and 27.9% had fever at 48 h. In multivariate analysis, a significant positive association was found between EPB and fever (odds ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30, P = 0.004) Female had negative association with multivariate model (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.94, P = 0.004). Diabetes did not demonstrate a significant association with EPB. (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.99-1.22, P = 0.072). Fever at 48 h is associated with EPB and could be considered a predictive factor for EPB infection in patients with UTI. Antibiotic escalation may be considered in patients with fever at 48 h.

Diabetes, SGLT-2 Inhibitors, and Urinary Tract Infection: a Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim of this review is to focus on epidemiology, pathogenesis, risk factors, management, and complications of UTI in people with diabetes as well as reviewing the association of SGLT-2 inhibitors with genitourinary infections.

RECENT FINDINGS

Individuals diagnosed with T2DM are more prone to experiencing UTIs and recurrent UTIs compared to individuals without T2DM. T2DM is associated with an increased risk of any genitourinary infections (GUI), urinary tract infections (UTIs), and genital infections (GIs) across all age categories. SGLT2 inhibitors are a relatively new class of anti-hyperglycemic agents, and studies suggest that they are associated with an increased risk of genitourinary infections. The management of diabetes and lifestyle modifications with a patient-centric approach are the most recognized methods for preventing critical long-term complications including genitourinary manifestations of diabetes. The available data regarding the association of SGLT-2 inhibitors with genitourinary infections is more comprehensive compared to that with UTIs. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms underlining the association between SGLT-2 inhibitors and genital infections and UTIs.

Development and validation of a newly developed nomogram for predicting the risk of deep vein thrombosis after surgery for lower limb fractures in elderly patients

Background

Prevention of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is indispensable in the treatment of lower limb fractures during the perioperative period. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel model for predicting the risk of DVT in elderly patients after orthopedic surgeries for lower limb fractures.

Methods

This observational study included 576 elderly patients with lower limb fractures who were surgically treated from January 2016 to December 2018. Eleven items affecting DVT were optimized by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to construct a predictive model incorporating the selected features. C-index was applied to evaluate the discrimination. Decision curve analysis was employed to determine the clinical effectiveness of this model and calibration plot was applied to evaluate the calibration of this nomogram. The internal validation of this model was assessed by bootstrapping validation.

Results

Predictive factors that affected the rate of DVT in this model included smoking, time from injury to surgery, operation time, blood transfusion, hip replacement arthroplasty, and D-dimer level after operation. The nomogram showed significant discrimination with a C-index of 0.919 (95% confidence interval: 0.893-0.946) and good calibration. Acceptable C-index value could still be reached in the interval validation. Decision curve analysis indicated that the DVT risk nomogram was useful within all possibility threshold.

Conclusion

This newly developed nomogram could be used to predict the risk of DVT in elderly patients with lower limb fractures during the perioperative period.

Decision support-tools for early detection of infection in older people (aged> 65 years): a scoping review

Background

Infection is more frequent, and serious in people aged > 65 as they experience non-specific signs and symptoms delaying diagnosis and prompt treatment. Monitoring signs and symptoms using decision support tools (DST) is one approach that could help improve early detection ensuring timely treatment and effective care.

Objective

To identify and analyse decision support tools available to support detection of infection in older people (> 65 years).

Methods

A scoping review of the literature 2010–2021 following Arksey and O’Malley (2005) framework and PRISMA-ScR guidelines. A search of MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus and PsycINFO using terms to identify decision support tools for detection of infection in people > 65 years was conducted, supplemented with manual searches.

Results

Seventeen papers, reporting varying stages of development of different DSTs were analysed. DSTs largely focussed on specific types of infection i.e. urine, respiratory, sepsis and were frequently hospital based (n = 9) for use by physicians. Four DSTs had been developed in nursing homes and one a care home, two of which explored detection of non- specific infection.

Conclusions

DSTs provide an opportunity to ensure a consistent approach to early detection of infection supporting prompt action and treatment, thus avoiding emergency hospital admissions. A lack of consideration regarding their implementation in practice means that any attempt to create an optimal validated and tested DST for infection detection will be impeded. This absence may ultimately affect the ability of the workforce to provide more effective and timely care, particularly during the current covid-19 pandemic.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03218-w.

A clinical prediction tool for extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae urinary tract infection

Background

Prevalence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing-Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) has risen in patients with urinary tract infections. The objective of this study was to determine explore the risk factors of ESBL-E infection in hospitalized patients and establish a predictive model.

Methods

This retrospective study included all patients with an Enterobacteriaceae-positive urine sample at the first affiliated hospital of Jinan university from January 2018 to December 2019. Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of ESBL-E were analyzed, and multivariate analysis of related factors was performed. From these, a nomogram was established to predict the possibility of ESBL-E infection. Simultaneously, susceptibility testing of a broad array of carbapenem antibiotics was performed on ESBL-E cultures to explore possible alternative treatment options.

Results

Of the total 874 patients with urinary tract infections (UTIs), 272 (31.1%) were ESBL-E positive. In the predictive analysis, five variables were identified as independent risk factors for ESBL-E infection: male gender (OR = 1.607, 95% CI 1.066–2.416), older age (OR = 4.100, 95% CI 1.678–12.343), a hospital stay in preceding 3 months (OR = 1.872, 95% CI 1.141–3.067), invasive urological procedure (OR = 1.810, 95% CI 1.197–2.729), and antibiotic use within the previous 3 months (OR = 1.833, 95% CI 1.055–3.188). In multivariate analysis, the data set was divided into a training set of 611 patients and a validation set of 263 patients The model developed to predict ESBL-E infection was effective, with the AuROC of 0.650 (95% CI 0.577–0.725). Among the antibiotics tested, several showed very high effectiveness against ESBL-E: amikacin (85.7%), carbapenems (83.8%), tigecycline (97.1%) and polymyxin (98.2%).

Conclusions

The nomogram is useful for estimating a UTI patient’s likelihood of infection with ESBL-E. It could improve clinical decision making and enable more efficient empirical treatment. Empirical treatment may be informed by the results of the antibiotic susceptibility testing.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus and antibiotic-resistant infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has been associated with infectious diseases; however, whether T2DM is associated with bacterial-resistant infections has not been thoroughly studied. We ascertained whether people with T2DM were more likely to experience resistant infections in comparison to T2DM-free individuals.

METHODS

Systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis. The search was conducted in Medline, Embase and Global Health. We selected observational studies in which the outcome was resistant infections (any site), and the exposure was T2DM. We studied adult subjects who could have been selected from population-based or hospital-based studies. I² was the metric of heterogeneity. We used the Newcastle-Ottawa risk of bias scale.

RESULTS

The search retrieved 3370 reports, 97 were studied in detail and 61 (449 247 subjects) were selected. Studies were mostly cross-sectional or case-control; several infection sites were studied, but mostly urinary tract and respiratory infections. The random-effects meta-analysis revealed that people with T2DM were twofold more likely to have urinary tract (OR=2.42; 95% CI 1.83 to 3.20; I² 19.1%) or respiratory (OR=2.35; 95% CI 1.49 to 3.69; I² 58.1%) resistant infections. Although evidence for other infection sites was heterogeneous, they consistently suggested that T2DM was associated with resistant infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Compelling evidence suggests that people with T2DM are more likely to experience antibiotic-resistant urinary tract and respiratory infections. The evidence for other infection sites was less conclusive but pointed to the same overall conclusion. These results could guide empirical treatment for patients with T2DM and infections.

Third-Generation Cephalosporin Resistance and Associated Discordant Antibiotic Treatment in Emergency Department Febrile Urinary Tract Infections

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Third-generation cephalosporin-resistant (3GCR) Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Proteus mirabilis (EKP) are an increasingly common cause of community-onset urinary tract infections (UTIs) in the United States. The 3GCR antimicrobial resistance pattern in these Enterobacterales species is most commonly due to production of extended-spectrum β-lactamases. We sought to provide contemporary, emergency department (ED)-focused data on 3GCR-EKP UTI regional prevalence, presentation, antibiotic susceptibility, and empiric treatment patterns, and outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of all adults admitted with a febrile UTI at 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California EDs between January 2017 and June 2019. Inclusion criteria included fever; admitting diagnosis of UTI, pyelonephritis, or sepsis; and ED urine culture with greater than 100,000 colony-forming units/mL of an EKP species. 3GCR was defined as in vitro resistance to ceftriaxone, ceftazidime, or both. 3GCR-EKP cases were compared with non-3GCR-EKP controls for the following: demographics, comorbidities, presenting clinical features, urinary isolate antimicrobial susceptibility, treatment, and clinical outcomes. The primary outcome measure was the rate of discordant initial empiric antibiotic treatment (administered within 6 hours of ED arrival) when compared with antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay and 90-day mortality, adjusted for comorbidities and severity of illness.

RESULTS

There were 4,107 patients (median age 73 years and 35% men) who met study inclusion criteria. Of these patients, 530 (12.9%) had a 3GCR-EKP urinary tract infection. The proportion of subjects possessing risk factors for a health care-associated or extended-spectrum β-lactamase infection was 92.8% of case patients and 86.1% of controls. When comparing 3GCR-EKP case and non-3GCR-EKP control isolates, ciprofloxacin susceptibility rates were 21% versus 88%, and piperacillin/tazobactam susceptibility rates were 89% versus 97%, respectively. Initial empiric antibiotic therapy was discordant with antimicrobial susceptibility testing results in 63% of case patients versus 7% of controls (odds ratio 21.0; 95% confidence interval 16.9 to 26.0). The hospital length of stay was longer for 3GCR-EKP case patients, with an adjusted mean difference of 29.7 hours (95% CI 19.0 to 40.4). Ninety-day mortality was 12% in case patients versus 8% in controls (adjusted odds ratio 1.56; 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.28).

CONCLUSION

In this large, 2017 to 2019 Northern California ED study, nearly 13% of febrile EKP UTIs requiring hospitalization were caused by 3GCR-EKP, and in these cases, initial empiric therapy was often discordant with antimicrobial susceptibility testing. 3GCR-EKP infections were associated with a longer hospital length of stay and higher 90-day mortality. Similar data from other regions and for outpatient UTIs are needed.

Predictive utility of prior positive urine culture of extended- spectrum β -lactamase producing strains

Rising incidence of extended- spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) induced urinary tract infections (UTIs) is an increasing concern worldwide. Thus, it is of paramount importance to investigate novel approaches that can facilitate the identification and guide empiric antibiotic therapy in such episodes. The study aimed to evaluate the usability of antecedent ESBL-positive urine culture to predict the pathogenic identity of future ones. Moreover, the study evaluated the accuracy of selected empiric therapy in index episodes. This was a retrospective study that included 693 cases with paired UTI episodes, linked to two separate hospital admissions within 12 month-period, and a conditional previous ESBL positive episode. Pertinent information was obtained by reviewing patients' medical records and computerized laboratory results. Multivariate analysis showed that shorter interval between index and previous episodes was significantly associated with increased chance of ESBL-positive results in current culture (OR = 0.912, 95CI% = 0.863-0.963, p = 0.001). Additionally, cases with ESBL-positive results in current culture were more likely to have underlying urological/surgical condition (OR = 1.416, 95CI% = 1.018-1.969, p = 0.039). Investigations of the accuracy of current empirical therapy revealed that male patients were less accurately treated compared to female patients (OR = 0.528, 95CI% = 0.289-0.963, p = 0.037). Furthermore, surgical patients were treated less accurately compared to those treated in internal ward (OR = 0.451, 95CI% = 0.234-0.870, p = 0.018). Selecting an agent concordant with previous microbiologic data significantly increased the accuracy of ESBL-UTIs therapy (p<0.001). A quick survey of the previous ESBL urine culture results can guide practitioners in the selection of empiric therapy for the pending current culture and thus improve treatment accuracy.

Independent validation of a predictive nomogram for risk of reinfection in women with recurrent non-complicated urinary tract infections

Aims:

Independent external validation of a predictive nomogram for risk of reinfection in women with a history of non-complicated recurrent urinary tract infection (UTI).

Methods:

A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to validate the LUTIRE nomogram in a Brazilian female cohort. The nomogram was applied to 81 women presenting non-complicated recurring UTI screened at a urological clinic. External validation was performed using the nomogram variables in patients followed up from January 2014 to December 2016 at a urological clinic. Accuracy of the nomogram was obtained by analyzing the predictive capacity observed in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to assess the ability of the nomogram variables to predict the recurrence of UTI over 12 months. The time to recurrence of infection was calculated using a Kaplan–Meier curve and the log-rank test with calculation of the hazard ratio.

Results:

The mean age of the study population was 42.8 years; 57 women (70.37%) had recurrence. The independent variables with statistical significance in the multivariate analysis were gram-negative bacteria [odds ratio (OR) 18.38; p = 0.03897] and number of UTIs in the past 12 months (OR 25.11; p = 0.00006). The accuracy of the nomogram for discriminating patients who had UTI recurrence was 82.6% (95% CI = 72.5–90.1).

Conclusion:

The LUTIRE nomogram showed good accuracy among Brazilian women with recurrent UTI.

Effect of probiotics on multi-resistant organism colonisation in persons with spinal cord injury: secondary outcome of ProSCIUTTU, a randomised placebo-controlled trial

STUDY DESIGN

Randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES

Multi-resistant organism (MRO) colonisation is common in people with SCI. We aimed to determine whether Lactobacillus reuteri RC-14 + Lactobacillus GR-1 (RC14-GR1) and/or Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG + Bifidobacterium BB-12 (LGG-BB12) are effective in preventing or clearing MRO colonisation.

SETTING

New South Wales, Australia.

METHODS

The 207 SCI participants were randomised to one of four arms: (i) RC14-GR1 + LGG-BB12, (ii) RC14-GR1 + placebo, (iii) LGG-BB12 + placebo or (iv) double placebos for 6 months. Microbiological samples of nose, groin, urine and bowel were taken at baseline, 3 and 6 months. Analysis was conducted for the presence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), multi-resistant gram-negative organisms (MRGNs) and vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE). The outcomes were clearance of, or new colonisation with MRSA, MRGN, VRE or MROs and whether participants remained free of MRSA, MRGN, VRE or MROs throughout the study. Risk factors associated with an outcome were adjusted for using nominal or binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

There was a significant reduction in new MRGN colonisation compared with placebo for participants treated with RC14-GR1 (OR 0.10, 95% CI, 0.01-0.88, P = 0.04), after allowing that inpatients were more likely to be newly colonised (OR 21.41, 95% CI, 3.98-115.13, P < 0.0001). Participants who intermittent self-catheterised (IMC) were more likely to remain MRO-free than those utilising SPC or IDCs (OR 2.80, 95% CI, 1.41-5.54, P = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Probiotics are ineffective at clearing MROs in people with SCI. However, RC14-GR1 is effective at preventing new colonisation with MRGNs. The use of IMC significantly improves the chance of remaining MRO-free.

Trends and prediction of antimicrobial susceptibility in urinary bacteria isolated in European emergency departments: the EuroUTI 2010-2016 Study

Objectives

To assess recent trends in susceptibility to antibiotics among urinary isolates isolated in European emergency departments (EDs) and to identify isolates with a high (90% or more) predicted probability of susceptibility to fluoroquinolones or third-generation cephalosporins (3GCs).

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, we included urine cultures obtained from adult patients between 2010 and 2016 in 24 European EDs. Temporal trends were assessed using time-series analysis and multivariate logistic models. Multivariate logistic models were also used to predict susceptibility to fluoroquinolones or 3GCs from patient age and sex, year, month and ED.

Results

We included 88242 isolates. Time-series analysis found a significant increase in susceptibility to fluoroquinolones and no significant trend for susceptibility to 3GCs. Adjusting for patient age and sex, ED and organism, multivariate models showed that susceptibility to 3GCs decreased from 2014 to 2016, while susceptibility to fluoroquinolones increased in 2015 and 2016. Among isolates from 2016, multivariate models predicted high probability of susceptibility to fluoroquinolones in 11% of isolates (positive predictive value 91%) and a high probability of susceptibility to 3GCs in 35% of isolates (positive predictive value 94%).

Conclusions

Susceptibility of ED urinary isolates to fluoroquinolones increased from 2014, while susceptibility to 3GCs decreased from 2015. Predictive models identified isolates with a high probability of susceptibility to fluoroquinolones or 3GCs. The ability of such models to guide the empirical treatment of pyelonephritis in the ED remains to be determined.

A Clinical Prediction Tool for Extended-Spectrum Cephalosporin Resistance in Community-Onset Enterobacterales Urinary Tract Infection

Background

Bacterial resistance to first line antibiotics used to treat community-onset urinary tract infections (UTIs) continues to increase. We sought to create a clinical prediction tool for community-onset UTIs due to extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant (ESC-R) Enterobacterales (formerly Enterobacteriaceae, EB).

Methods

A case-control study was performed. The source population included patients presenting to an emergency department (ED) or outpatient practice with an EB UTI between 2010 and 2013. Case patients had ESC-R EB UTIs. Control patients had ESC-susceptible EB UTIs and were matched to cases 1:1 on study year. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was performed to develop the predictive model by maximizing the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC). Internal validation was performed via bootstrapping.

Results

A total of 302 patients with a community-onset EB UTI were included, with 151 cases and 151 controls. After multivariable analysis, we found that presentation with an ESC-R EB community-onset UTI could be predicted by the following: (1) a history of malignancy; (2) a history of diabetes; (3) recent skilled nursing facility or hospital stay; (4) recent trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole exposure; and (5) pyelonephritis at the time of presentation (AUC 0.73, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit P value 0.23). With this model, each covariate confers a single point, and a patient with ≥ 2 points is considered high risk for ESC-R EB (sensitivity 80%, specificity 54%). The adjusted AUC after bootstrapping was 0.71.

Conclusions

Community-onset ESC-R EB UTI can be predicted using the proposed scoring system, which can help guide diagnostic and therapeutic interventions.