A 4-year study of the epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae in four rural areas of Bangladesh

Satellite-Derived, Smartphone-Delivered Geospatial Cholera Risk Information for Vulnerable Populations

Cholera, an acute waterborne diarrheal disease, remains a major global health challenge. Despite being curable and preventable, it can be fatal if left untreated, especially for children. Bangladesh, a cholera-endemic country with a high disease burden, experiences two peaks annually, during the dry pre-monsoon spring and the wet post-monsoon fall seasons. An early warning system for disseminating cholera risk, which has potential to reduce the disease burden, currently does not exist in Bangladesh. Such systems can raise timely awareness and allow households in rural, riverine areas like Matlab to make behavioral adjustments with water usage and around water resources to reduce contracting and transmitting cholera. Current dissemination approaches typically target local government and public health organizations; however, the vulnerable rural populations largely remain outside the information chain. Here, we develop and evaluate the accuracy of an early warning system-CholeraMap that uses high-resolution earth observations to forecast cholera risk and disseminate geocoded risk maps directly to Matlab's population via a mobile smartphone application. Instead of relying on difficult to obtain station-based environmental and hydroclimatological data, this study offers a new opportunity to use remote sensing data sets for designing and operating a disease early warning system. CholeraMap delivers monthly, color-coded geospatial maps (1 km × 1 km spatial resolution) with household and community cholera risk information. Our results demonstrate that the satellite-derived local-scale risk model satisfactorily captured the seasonal cholera pattern for the Matlab region, and a detailed high-resolution picture of the spatial progression of at-risk areas during outbreak months.

Genomic insights into the 2022-2023Vibrio cholerae outbreak in Malawi

Malawi experienced its deadliest Vibrio cholerae (Vc) outbreak following devastating cyclones, with >58,000 cases and >1700 deaths reported between March 2022 and May 2023. Here, we use population genomics to investigate the attributes and origin of the Malawi 2022-2023 Vc outbreak isolates. Our results demonstrate the predominance of ST69 clone, also known as the seventh cholera pandemic El Tor (7PET) lineage, expressing O1 Ogawa (~ 80%) serotype followed by Inaba (~ 16%) and sporadic non-O1/non-7PET serogroups (~ 4%). Phylogenetic reconstruction revealed that the Malawi outbreak strains correspond to a recent importation from Asia into Africa (sublineage AFR15). These isolates harboured known antimicrobial resistance and virulence elements, notably the ICEGEN/ICEVchHai1/ICEVchind5 SXT/R391-like integrative conjugative elements and a CTXφ prophage with the ctxB7 genotype compared to historical Malawian Vc isolates. These data suggest that the devastating cyclones coupled with the recent importation of 7PET serogroup O1 strains, may explain the magnitude of the 2022-2023 cholera outbreak in Malawi.

Mechanisms of cholera transmission via environment in India and Bangladesh: state of the science review

OBJECTIVES

Cholera has a long history in India and Bangladesh, the region where six out of the past seven global pandemics have been seeded. The changing climate and growing population have led to global cholera cases remaining high despite a consistent improvement in the access to clean water and sanitation. We aim to provide a holistic overview of variables influencing environmental cholera transmission within the context of India and Bangladesh, with a focus on the mechanisms by which they act.

CONTENT

We identified 56 relevant texts (Bangladesh n = 40, India n = 7, Other n = 5). The results of the review found that cholera transmission is associated with several socio-economic and environmental factors, each associated variable is suggested to have at least one mediating mechanism. Increases in ambient temperature and coastal sea surface temperature support cholera transmission via increases in plankton and a preference of Vibrio cholerae for warmer waters. Increased rainfall can potentially support or reduce transmission via several mechanisms.

SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK

Common issues in the literature are co-variance of seasonal factors, limited access to high quality cholera data, high research bias towards research in Dhaka and Matlab (Bangladesh). A specific and detailed understanding of the relationship between SST and cholera incidence remains unclear.

Clinical surveillance systems obscure the true cholera infection burden in an endemic region

Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely relies on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden estimates and limit the impact of targeted cholera-prevention measures. Serological surveillance provides a complementary approach to monitoring infections, although the link between serologically derived infections and medically attended disease incidence-shaped by immunological, behavioral and clinical factors-remains poorly understood. We unravel this cascade in a cholera-endemic Bangladeshi community by integrating clinic-based surveillance, healthcare-seeking and longitudinal serological data through statistical modeling. Combining the serological trajectories with a reconstructed incidence timeline of symptomatic cholera, we estimated an annual Vibrio cholerae O1 infection incidence rate of 535 per 1,000 population (95% credible interval 514-556), with incidence increasing by age group. Clinic-based surveillance alone underestimated the number of infections and reported cases were not consistently correlated with infection timing. Of the infections, 4 in 3,280 resulted in symptoms, only 1 of which was reported through the surveillance system. These results impart insights into cholera transmission dynamics and burden in the epicenter of the seventh cholera pandemic, where >50% of our study population had an annual V. cholerae O1 infection, and emphasize the potential for a biased view of disease burden and infection risk when depending solely on clinical surveillance data.

The incidence, and spatial trends of cholera in Sabah over 15 years: Repeated outbreaks in coastal areas

Vibrio cholerae remains a notable public health challenge across Malaysia. Although the Malaysian state of Sabah is considered a cholera-affected area, gaps remain in understanding the epidemiological trends and spatial distribution of outbreaks. Therefore, to determine longitudinal and spatial trends in cholera cases data were obtained from the Sabah State Health Department for all notified cases of cholera between 2005-2020. A cholera outbreak is defined as one or more confirmed cases in a single locality with the evidence of local transmission. All records were geolocated to village level. Satellite-derived data and generalised linearized models were used to assess potential risk factors, including population density, elevation, and distance to the sea. Spatiotemporal clustering of reported cholera cases and zones of increased cholera risk were evaluated using the tau statistic (τ) at 550m, 5km and 10km distances. Over a 15-year period between 2005-2020, 2865 cholera cases were recorded in Sabah, with a mean incidence rate of 5.6 cases per 100,000 (95% CI: 3.4-7.9). From 2015-2020, 705 symptomatic cases and 727 asymptomatic cases were reported. Symptomatic cases primarily occurred in local Malaysian populations (62.6%, 441/705) and in children and adolescents under 15-years old (49.4%, 348/705). On average, cases were reported in areas with low population density (19.45 persons/km2), low elevations (19.45m) and near coastal areas. Spatiotemporal clustering of cholera cases was identified up to 3.5km, with increased village-level cholera risk within 500m and 5 days of initial case presentation to a health facility (Risk Ratio = 9.7, 95% CI: 7.5-12.4). Cholera incidence has high spatial and temporal heterogeneity within Sabah, with some districts experiencing repeated outbreaks. Cholera cases clustered across space and time, with village-level risk of cholera highest within 5 days and within close proximity to primary case villages, suggesting local transmission.

Vibrio cholerae O1 Inhabit Intestines and Spleens of Fish in Aquaculture Ponds

Vibrio cholerae is the causative agent of cholera, an acute diarrheal disease that spreads locally and globally in epidemics and pandemics. Although it was discovered that fish harbor V. cholerae strains in their intestines, most investigations revealed non-toxic V. cholerae serogroups in fish. Due to the rarity of toxigenic V. cholerae serogroups, it is difficult to cultivate these strains from environmental samples. Hence, here we aimed to uncover evidence of the occurrence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the intestines and spleens of various fish species. By using molecular detection tools, we show that V. cholerae O1 and strains positive for the cholera toxin inhabit both healthy and diseased fish intestines and spleens, suggesting that fish may serve as intermediate vectors of toxigenic V. cholerae. No significant differences were found between the abundance of toxigenic V. cholerae (either O1 or cholera toxin positive strains) in the healthy and the diseased fish intestines or spleens. In conclusion, a variety of fish species may serve as potential vectors and reservoirs of toxigenic V. cholerae as they form a link between the other reservoirs of V. cholerae (chironomids, copepods, and waterbirds). Similarly, they may aid in the spread of this bacterium between water bodies.

Estimating the proportion of clinically suspected cholera cases that are true Vibrio cholerae infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Cholera surveillance relies on clinical diagnosis of acute watery diarrhea. Suspected cholera case definitions have high sensitivity but low specificity, challenging our ability to characterize cholera burden and epidemiology. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of clinically suspected cholera that are true Vibrio cholerae infections and identify factors that explain variation in positivity.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic review of studies that tested ≥10 suspected cholera cases for V. cholerae O1/O139 using culture, PCR, and/or a rapid diagnostic test. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for studies that sampled at least one suspected case between January 1, 2000 and April 19, 2023, to reflect contemporary patterns in V. cholerae positivity. We estimated diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity using a latent class meta-analysis. We estimated V. cholerae positivity using a random-effects meta-analysis, adjusting for test performance. We included 119 studies from 30 countries. V. cholerae positivity was lower in studies with representative sampling and in studies that set minimum ages in suspected case definitions. After adjusting for test performance, on average, 52% (95% credible interval (CrI): 24%, 80%) of suspected cases represented true V. cholerae infections. After adjusting for test performance and study methodology, the odds of a suspected case having a true infection were 5.71 (odds ratio 95% CrI: 1.53, 15.43) times higher when surveillance was initiated in response to an outbreak than in non-outbreak settings. Variation across studies was high, and a limitation of our approach was that we were unable to explain all the heterogeneity with study-level attributes, including diagnostic test used, setting, and case definitions.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that burden estimates based on suspected cases alone may overestimate the incidence of medically attended cholera by 2-fold. However, accounting for cases missed by traditional clinical surveillance is key to unbiased cholera burden estimates. Given the substantial variability in positivity between settings, extrapolations from suspected to confirmed cases, which is necessary to estimate cholera incidence rates without exhaustive testing, should be based on local data.

Estimating the gap between clinical cholera and true community infections: findings from an integrated surveillance study in an endemic region of Bangladesh

Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely rely on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden estimates and limit the impact of targeted cholera-prevention measures. Serologic surveillance provides a complementary approach to monitoring infections, though the link between serologically-derived infections and medically-attended disease - shaped by immunological, behavioral, and clinical factors - remains poorly understood. We unravel this cascade in a cholera-endemic Bangladeshi community by integrating clinic-based surveillance, healthcare seeking, and longitudinal serological data through statistical modeling. We found >50% of the study population had a V. cholerae O1 infection annually, and infection timing was not consistently correlated with reported cases. Four in 2,340 infections resulted in symptoms, only one of which was reported through the surveillance system. These results provide new insights into cholera transmission dynamics and burden in the epicenter of the 7th cholera pandemic and provide a framework to synthesize serological and clinical surveillance data.

Genomic epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae during a mass vaccination campaign of displaced communities in Bangladesh

Ongoing diarrheal disease surveillance throughout Bangladesh over the last decade has revealed seasonal localised cholera outbreaks in Cox's Bazar, where both Bangladeshi Nationals and Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs) reside in densely populated settlements. FDMNs were recently targeted for the largest cholera vaccination campaign in decades. We aimed to infer the epidemic risk of circulating Vibrio cholerae strains by determining if isolates linked to the ongoing global cholera pandemic ("7PET" lineage) were responsible for outbreaks in Cox's Bazar. We found two sublineages of 7PET in this setting during the study period; one with global distribution, and a second lineage restricted to Asia and the Middle East. These subclades were associated with different disease patterns that could be partially explained by genomic differences. Here we show that as the pandemic V. cholerae lineage circulates in this vulnerable population, without a vaccine intervention, the risk of an epidemic was very high.

Vibrio cholerae in rural and urban Bangladesh, findings from hospital-based surveillance, 2000-2021

With more than 100,000 cases estimated each year, Bangladesh is one of the countries with the highest number of people at risk for cholera. Moreover, Bangladesh is formulating a countrywide cholera-control plan to satisfy the GTFCC (The Global Task Force on Cholera Control) Roadmap's goals. With a particular focus on cholera trends, variance in baseline and clinical characteristics of cholera cases, and trends in antibiotic susceptibility among clinical isolates of Vibrio cholerae, we used data from facility-based surveillance systems from icddr,b's Dhaka, and Matlab Hospitals from years 2000 to 2021. Female patients comprised 3,553 (43%) in urban and 1,099 (51.6%) in rural sites. Of the cases and most patients 5,236 (63.7%) in urban and 1,208 (56.7%) in the rural site were aged 15 years and more. More than 50% of the families belonged to the poor and lower-middle-class; in 2009 (24.4%) were in urban and in 1,791 (84.2%) were in rural sites. In the urban site, 2,446 (30%) of households used untreated drinking water, and 702 (9%) of families disposed of waste in their courtyard. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, the risk of cholera has significantly increased due to waste disposal in the courtyard and the boiling of water has a protective effect against cholera. Rotavirus (9.7%) was the most prevalent co-pathogen among the under-5 children in both sites. In urban sites, the percentage of V. cholerae along with co-existing ETEC and Campylobacter is changing in the last 20 years; Campylobacter (8.36%) and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) (7.15%) were the second and third most prevalent co-pathogens. Shigella (1.64%) was the second most common co-pathogen in the rural site. Azithromycin susceptibility increased slowly from 265 (8%) in 2006-2010 to 1485 (47.8%) in 2016-2021, and erythromycin susceptibility dropped substantially over 20 years period from 2,155 (98.4%) to 21 (0.9%). Tetracycline susceptibility decreased in the urban site from 2051 (45.9%) to 186 (4.2%) and ciprofloxacin susceptibility decreased from 2,581 (31.6%) to 1,360 (16.6%) until 2015, then increased 1,009 (22.6%) and 1,490 (18.2%) in 2016-2021, respectively. Since 2016, doxycycline showed 902 (100%) susceptibility. Clinicians need access to up-to-date information on antimicrobial susceptibility for treating hospitalized patients. To achieve the WHO-backed objective of eliminating cholera by 2030, the health systems need to be put under a proper surveillance system that may help to improve water and sanitation practices and deploy oral cholera vaccines strategically.

A new generation of real-time environmental monitoring systems to study the impact of El Niño on disease dynamics

Global warming is drastically altering weather patterns, accentuating the frequency and strength of global events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This alteration is driving the spread of diseases sensitive to climate such as diarrheal diseases. Environmental monitoring through remote sensing, in combination with data from epidemiological surveillance programs, is facilitating the study of infectious disease dynamics associated with El Niño. This integrative approach can inform the development of strategies for mitigating the impact of these diseases on public health. Here, we discuss some of the achievements of this approach in the management, control, and prevention of infectious diseases linked to El Niño.

Cholera Dynamics and the Emergence of Pandemic Vibrio cholerae

Cholera is a severe diarrheal disease caused by the aquatic bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Interestingly, to date, only one major clade has emerged to cause pandemic disease in humans: the clade that encompasses the strains from the O1 and O139 serogroups. In this chapter, we provide a comprehensive perspective on the virulence factors and mobile genetic elements (MGEs) associated with the emergence of pandemic V. cholerae strains and highlight novel findings such as specific genomic background or interactions between MGEs that explain their confined distribution. Finally, we discuss pandemic cholera dynamics contextualizing them within the evolution of the bacterium.

Vibrio cholerae high cell density quorum sensing activates the host intestinal innate immune response

Quorum sensing fundamentally alters the interaction of Vibrio cholerae with aquatic environments, environmental hosts, and the human intestine. At high cell density, the quorum-sensing regulator HapR represses not only expression of cholera toxin and the toxin co-regulated pilus, virulence factors essential in human infection, but also synthesis of the Vibrio polysaccharide (VPS) exopolysaccharide-based matrix required for abiotic and biotic surface attachment. Here, we describe a feature of V. cholerae quorum sensing that shifts the host-pathogen interaction toward commensalism. By repressing pathogen consumptive anabolic metabolism and, in particular, tryptophan uptake, V. cholerae HapR stimulates host intestinal serotonin production. This, in turn, activates host intestinal innate immune signaling to promote host survival.

Non-serogroup O1/O139 agglutinable Vibrio cholerae: a phylogenetically and genealogically neglected yet emerging potential pathogen of clinical relevance

Somatic antigen agglutinable type-1/139 Vibrio cholerae (SAAT-1/139-Vc) members or O1/O139 V. cholerae have been described by various investigators as pathogenic due to their increasing virulence potential and production of choleragen. Reported cholera outbreak cases around the world have been associated with these choleragenic V. cholerae with high case fatality affecting various human and animals. These virulent Vibrio members have shown genealogical and phylogenetic relationship with the avirulent somatic antigen non-agglutinable strains of 1/139 V. cholerae (SANAS-1/139- Vc) or O1/O139 non-agglutinating V. cholerae (O1/O139-NAG-Vc). Reports on implication of O1/O139-NAGVc members in most sporadic cholera/cholera-like cases of diarrhea, production of cholera toxin and transmission via consumption and/or contact with contaminated water/seafood are currently on the rise. Some reported sporadic cases of cholera outbreaks and observed change in nature has also been tracable to these non-agglutinable Vibrio members (O1/O139-NAGVc) yet there is a sustained paucity of research interest on the non-agglutinable V. cholerae members. The emergence of fulminating extraintestinal and systemic vibriosis is another aspect of SANAS-1/139- Vc implication which has received low attention in terms of research driven interest. This review addresses the need to appraise and continually expand research based studies on the somatic antigen non-serogroup agglutinable type-1/139 V. cholerae members which are currently prevalent in studies of water bodies, fruits/vegetables, foods and terrestrial environment. Our opinion is amassed from interest in integrated surveillance studies, management/control of cholera outbreaks as well as diarrhea and other disease-related cases both in the rural, suburban and urban metropolis.

Contrasting Epidemiology of Cholera in Bangladesh and Africa

In Bangladesh and West Bengal cholera is seasonal, transmission occurs consistently annually. By contrast, in most African countries, cholera has inconsistent seasonal patterns and long periods without obvious transmission. Transmission patterns in Africa occur during intermittent outbreaks followed by elimination of that genetic lineage. Later another outbreak may occur because of reintroduction of new or evolved lineages from adjacent areas, often by human travelers. These then subsequently undergo subsequent elimination. The frequent elimination and reintroduction has several implications when planning for cholera's elimination including: a) reconsidering concepts of definition of elimination, b) stress on rapid detection and response to outbreaks, c) more effective use of oral cholera vaccine and WASH, d) need to readjust estimates of disease burden for Africa, e) re-examination of water as a reservoir for maintaining endemicity in Africa. This paper reviews major features of cholera's epidemiology in African countries which appear different from the Ganges Delta.

Genome-wide analysis provides a deeper understanding of the population structure of the Salmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi B complex in Bangladesh

The Salmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi B complex causes a wide range of diseases, from gastroenteritis to paratyphoid fever, depending on the biotypes Java and sensu stricto. The burden of Paratyphi B biotypes in Bangladesh is still unknown, as these are indistinguishable by Salmonella serotyping. Here, we conducted the first whole-genome sequencing (WGS) study on 79 Salmonella isolates serotyped as Paratyphi B that were collected from 10 nationwide enteric disease surveillance sites in Bangladesh. Placing these in a global genetic context revealed that these are biotype Java, and the addition of these genomes expanded the previously described PG4 clade containing Bangladeshi and UK isolates. Importantly, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes were scarce amongst Bangladeshi S. Java isolates, somewhat surprisingly given the widespread availability of antibiotics without prescription. This genomic information provides important insights into the significance of S. Paratyphi B biotypes in enteric disease and their implications for public health.

Association between cholera treatment outcome and nutritional status in children aged 2-4 years in Nigeria

SETTING

Cholera can aggravate or precipitate malnutrition, and children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have a higher incidence and longer duration of diarrhoea.

OBJECTIVE

To describe 1) characteristics of and treatment outcomes in children aged 2-4 years with cholera, 2) the case fatality rate (CFR) in all children treated, and 3) the associations between nutritional status, hydration status, treatment administered and hospital outcomes.

DESIGN

An observational cohort study of children admitted to one cholera treatment centre in Maiduguri, Nigeria, with a focus on children aged 2-4 years. CFRs were examined by cross tabulation and mean length of stay (LOS) using analysis of variance.

RESULTS

SAM was identified in 24% of children aged 2-4 years. The CFR for children aged 2-4 years was 1.4%. As the sample size was small, we did not find any association between nutritional status and death due to cholera. The proportion of children discharged within 2 days was 79%, and the longest stay was 8 days. In general, health facility LOS increased with severity of malnutrition.

CONCLUSION

Our study found that nutritional status affected the LOS, but was unable to find an association between malnutrition and fatality among children aged 2-4 years.

Cholera Hot-Spots and Contextual Factors in Burundi, Planning for Elimination

The Republic of Burundi first reported cholera cases in 1978 and outbreaks have been occurring nearly every year since then. From 2008-2020, 6949 cases and 43 deaths were officially reported. To evaluate Burundi's potential to eliminate cholera, we identified hotspots using cholera incidence and disease persistence as suggested by the Global Task Force for Cholera Control. The mean annual incidence for each district that reported cholera ranged from 0.29 to 563.14 cases per 100,000 population per year from 2014-2020. Ten of 12 Health Districts which recorded cholera cases reported a mean annual incidence ≥5 per 100,000 for this time period. Cholera cases occur during the second half of the year in the areas near Lake Tanganyika and along the Ruzizi River, with the highest risk district being Bujumbura Centre. Additional research is needed to understand the role of Lake Tanganyika; risks associated with fishing; migration patterns; and other factors that may explain cholera's seasonality. Due to the consistent epidemiological pattern and the relatively small area affected by cholera, control and elimination are feasible with an integrated program of campaigns using oral cholera vaccine over the short term and community-based interventions including WASH activities for sustained control.

Epidemiology of Cholera in Bangladesh: Findings From Nationwide Hospital-based Surveillance, 2014-2018

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in prevention, detection, and treatment, cholera remains a major public health problem in Bangladesh and little is known about cholera outside of limited historical sentinel surveillance sites. In Bangladesh, a comprehensive national cholera control plan is essential, although national data are needed to better understand the magnitude and geographic distribution of cholera.

METHODS

We conducted systematic hospital-based cholera surveillance among diarrhea patients in 22 sites throughout Bangladesh from 2014 to 2018. Stool specimens were collected and tested for Vibrio cholerae by microbiological culture. Participants' socioeconomic status and clinical, sanitation, and food history were recorded. We used generalized estimating equations to identify the factors associated with cholera among diarrhea patients.

RESULTS

Among 26 221 diarrhea patients enrolled, 6.2% (n = 1604) cases were V. cholerae O1. The proportion of diarrhea patients positive for cholera in children <5 years was 2.1% and in patients ≥5 years was 9.5%. The proportion of cholera in Dhaka and Chittagong Division was consistently high. We observed biannual seasonal peaks (pre- and postmonsoon) for cholera across the country, with higher cholera positivity during the postmonsoon in western regions and during the pre-monsoon season in eastern regions. Cholera risk increased with age, occupation, and recent history of diarrhea among household members.

CONCLUSIONS

Cholera occurs throughout a large part of Bangladesh. Cholera-prone areas should be prioritized to control the disease by implementation of targeted interventions. These findings can help strengthen the cholera-control program and serve as the basis for future studies for tracking the impact of cholera-control interventions in Bangladesh.

Methods for Model Calibration under High Uncertainty: Modeling Cholera in Bangladesh

Background. Published data on a disease do not always correspond directly to the parameters needed to simulate natural history. Several calibration methods have been applied to computer-based disease models to extract needed parameters that make a model's output consistent with available data. Objective. To assess 3 calibration methods and evaluate their performance in a real-world application. Methods. We calibrated a model of cholera natural history in Bangladesh, where a lack of active surveillance biases available data. We built a cohort state-transition cholera natural history model that includes case hospitalization to reflect the passive surveillance data-generating process. We applied 3 calibration techniques: incremental mixture importance sampling, sampling importance resampling, and random search with rejection sampling. We adapted these techniques to the context of wide prior uncertainty and many degrees of freedom. We evaluated the resulting posterior parameter distributions using a range of metrics and compared predicted cholera burden estimates. Results. All 3 calibration techniques produced posterior distributions with a higher likelihood and better fit to calibration targets as compared with prior distributions. Incremental mixture importance sampling resulted in the highest likelihood and largest number of unique parameter sets to better inform joint parameter uncertainty. Compared with naïve uncalibrated parameter sets, calibrated models of cholera in Bangladesh project substantially more cases, many of which are not detected by passive surveillance, and fewer deaths. Limitations. Calibration cannot completely overcome poor data quality, which can leave some parameters less well informed than others. Calibration techniques may perform differently under different circumstances. Conclusions. Incremental mixture importance sampling, when adapted to the context of high uncertainty, performs well. By accounting for biases in data, calibration can improve model projections of disease burden.

Tube Well Use as Protection Against Rotavirus Infection During the Monsoons in an Urban Setting

Rotavirus, a diarrheal pathogen spread via fecal-oral transmission, is typically characterized by a winter incidence peak in most countries. Unlike for cholera and other waterborne infections, the role of sanitation and socioeconomic factors on the spatial variation of rotavirus seasonality remains unclear. In the current study, we analyzed their association with rotavirus seasonality, specifically the odds of monsoon cases, across 46 locations from 2001 to 2012 in Dhaka. Drinking water from tube wells, compared to other sources, has a clear protective effect against cases during the monsoon, when flooding and water contamination are more likely. This finding supports a significant environmental component of transmission.

Environmental Reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae: Challenges and Opportunities for Ocean-Color Remote Sensing

The World Health Organization has estimated the burden of the on-going pandemic of cholera at 1.3 to 4 million cases per year worldwide in 2016, and a doubling of case-fatality-rate to 1.8% in 2016 from 0.8% in 2015. The disease cholera is caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae that can be found in environmental reservoirs, living either in free planktonic form or in association with host organisms, non-living particulate matter or in the sediment, and participating in various biogeochemical cycles. An increasing number of epidemiological studies are using land- and water-based remote-sensing observations for monitoring, surveillance, or risk mapping of Vibrio pathogens and cholera outbreaks. Although the Vibrio pathogens cannot be sensed directly by satellite sensors, remotely-sensed data can be used to infer their presence. Here, we review the use of ocean-color remote-sensing data, in conjunction with information on the ecology of the pathogen, to map its distribution and forecast risk of disease occurrence. Finally, we assess how satellite-based information on cholera may help support the Sustainable Development Goals and targets on Health (Goal 3), Water Quality (Goal 6), Climate (Goal 13), and Life Below Water (Goal 14).

An overview of VaxchoraTM, a live attenuated oral cholera vaccine

Cholera remains a public health threat among the least privileged populations and regions affected by conflicts and natural disasters. Together with Water, Sanitation and Hygiene practices, use of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) is a key tool to prevent cholera. Bivalent whole-cell killed OCVs have been extensively used worldwide and found effective in protecting populations against cholera in endemic and outbreak settings. No cholera vaccine had been available for United States (US) travelers at risk for decades until 2016 when CVD 103-HgR (Vaxchora™), an oral live attenuated vaccine, was licensed by the US FDA. A single dose of Vaxchora™ protected US volunteers against experimental challenge 10 days and 3 months after vaccination. However, use of Vaxchora™ poses several challenges in resource poor settings as it requires reconstitution, is age-restricted to 18 to 64 years, has no data in populations endemic for cholera, and faces challenges related to cold chain and cost.

Organization and implementation of an oral cholera vaccination campaign in an endemic urban setting in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Bangladesh has historically been cholera endemic, with seasonal cholera outbreaks occurring each year. In collaboration with the government of Bangladesh, the Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) initiated operational research to test strategies to reach the high-risk urban population with an affordable oral cholera vaccine (OCV) "ShancholTM" and examine its effectiveness in reducing diarrhea due to cholera. Here we report a sub-analysis focusing on the organization, implementation and effectiveness of different oral cholera vaccine delivery strategies in the endemic urban setting in Bangladesh. We described how the vaccination program was planned, prepared and implemented using different strategies to deliver oral cholera vaccine to a high-risk urban population in Dhaka, Bangladesh based on administrative data and observations made during the program. The objective of this study is to evaluate the organization, implementation and effectiveness of different oral cholera vaccine delivery strategies in the endemic urban setting in Bangladesh. OCV administration by trained local volunteers through outreach sites and mop-up activities yielded high coverage of 82% and 72% of 172,754 targeted individuals for the first and second dose respectively, using national Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) campaign mechanisms without disrupting routine immunization activities. The cost of delivery was low. Safety and cold chain requirements were adequately managed. The adopted strategies were technically and programmatically feasible. Current evidence on implementation strategies in different settings together with available OCV stockpiles should encourage at-risk countries to use OCV along with other preventive and control measures.

Feasibility, coverage and cost of oral cholera vaccination conducted by icddr,b using the existing national immunization service delivery mechanism in rural setting Keraniganj, Bangladesh

Background: Cholera is a considerable health burden in developing country settings including Bangladesh. The oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is a preventative tool to control the disease. The objective of this study was to describe whether the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), could provide the OCV to rural communities using existing government infrastructure.

Methods: The study was conducted in rural sub-district Keraniganj, 20 km from the capital city Dhaka. All listed participants one year and above in age (excluding pregnant women) were offered two doses of OCV at a 14 day interval. Existing government facilities were used to deliver and also maintain the cold chain required for the vaccine. All events related to vaccination were recorded at the 17 vaccination sites to evaluate the coverage and feasibility of OCV program.

Results: A total of 29,029 individuals received the 1st dose (90% of target) and 26,611 individuals received the 2nd dose (83% of target and 92% of 1st dose individuals) of OCV. The highest vaccination coverage was in younger children (1–9 years) and the lowest was amongst 18–29-year age group. Somewhat better coverage was seen amongst the female participants than males (92% vs. 88% for the 1st dose and 93% vs. 90% for the 2nd dose). The cost of vaccine cost was calculated as US$1.00 per dose plus freight, insurance, and transportation and the total vaccine delivery cost was US$70,957.

Conclusion: This was a project undertaken using existing public health program resources to collect empirical evidence on the use of a mass OCV campaign in the rural setting. Mass vaccination with the OCV is feasible in the rural setting using existing governmental vaccine delivery systems in Bangladesh.

Vibrio cholerae Transmits Through Water Among the Household Contacts of Cholera Patients in Cholera Endemic Coastal Villages of Bangladesh, 2015-2016 (CHoBI7 Trial)

Recurrent cholera causes significant morbidity and mortality in cholera endemic estuarine areas of Bangladesh. There have been limited studies to investigate the transmission patterns of V. cholerae associated with cholera in Bangladesh. In this study, we characterized V. cholerae serogroup O1 isolated from 30 cholera patients, 76 household contacts, 119 stored drinking water samples, and 119 water source samples in Bakerganj and Mathbaria, two cholera endemic coastal regions in Bangladesh. Results of phenotypic and molecular characterization of V. cholerae isolates (n = 56) confirmed them to be toxigenic belonging to serogroup O1 biotype El Tor (ET), and possessing cholera toxin of the classical biotype (altered ET). Molecular fingerprinting of the V. cholerae O1 of clinical and water origins determined by PFGE of Not-I- digested genomic DNA showed them to be closely related, as the PFGE banding patterns were highly homogenous. Phylogenetic analysis using dendrogram of cholera patients, household contacts, and household groundwater sources showed isolates within households to be clonally linked, suggesting water as an important vehicle of transmission of cholera in the coastal villages of Bangladesh. Transmission of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 through drinking water in cholera endemic rural settings underscores the urgent need for evidence based water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions promoting safe drinking water to prevent morbidity and mortality related to cholera and other enteric infections in Bangladesh.

Vibrio spp. infections

Vibrio is a genus of ubiquitous bacteria found in a wide variety of aquatic and marine habitats; of the >100 described Vibrio spp., ~12 cause infections in humans. Vibrio cholerae can cause cholera, a severe diarrhoeal disease that can be quickly fatal if untreated and is typically transmitted via contaminated water and person-to-person contact. Non-cholera Vibrio spp. (for example, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio alginolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus) cause vibriosis - infections normally acquired through exposure to sea water or through consumption of raw or undercooked contaminated seafood. Non-cholera bacteria can lead to several clinical manifestations, most commonly mild, self-limiting gastroenteritis, with the exception of V. vulnificus, an opportunistic pathogen with a high mortality that causes wound infections that can rapidly lead to septicaemia. Treatment for Vibrio spp. infection largely depends on the causative pathogen: for example, rehydration therapy for V. cholerae infection and debridement of infected tissues for V. vulnificus-associated wound infections, with antibiotic therapy for severe cholera and systemic infections. Although cholera is preventable and effective oral cholera vaccines are available, outbreaks can be triggered by natural or man-made events that contaminate drinking water or compromise access to safe water and sanitation. The incidence of vibriosis is rising, perhaps owing in part to the spread of Vibrio spp. favoured by climate change and rising sea water temperature.

Biofilms Comprise a Component of the Annual Cycle of Vibrio cholerae in the Bay of Bengal Estuary

Vibrio cholerae, an estuarine bacterium, is the causative agent of cholera, a severe diarrheal disease that demonstrates seasonal incidence in Bangladesh. In an extensive study of V. cholerae occurrence in a natural aquatic environment, water and plankton samples were collected biweekly between December 2005 and November 2006 from Mathbaria, an estuarine village of Bangladesh near the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. Toxigenic V. cholerae exhibited two seasonal growth peaks, one in spring (March to May) and another in autumn (September to November), corresponding to the two annual seasonal outbreaks of cholera in this region. The total numbers of bacteria determined by heterotrophic plate count (HPC), representing culturable bacteria, accounted for 1% to 2.7% of the total numbers obtained using acridine orange direct counting (AODC). The highest bacterial culture counts, including toxigenic V. cholerae, were recorded in the spring. The direct fluorescent antibody (DFA) assay was used to detect V. cholerae O1 cells throughout the year, as free-living cells, within clusters, or in association with plankton. V. cholerae O1 varied significantly in morphology, appearing as distinctly rod-shaped cells in the spring months, while small coccoid cells within thick clusters of biofilm were observed during interepidemic periods of the year, notably during the winter months. Toxigenic V. cholerae O1 was culturable in natural water during the spring when the temperature rose sharply. The results of this study confirmed biofilms to be a means of persistence for bacteria and an integral component of the annual life cycle of toxigenic V. cholerae in the estuarine environment of Bangladesh.

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is autochthonous in the estuarine aquatic environment. This study describes morphological changes in naturally occurring V. cholerae O1 in the estuarine environment of Mathbaria, where the bacterium is culturable when the water temperature rises and is observable predominantly as distinct rods and dividing cells. In the spring and fall, these morphological changes coincide with the two seasonal peaks of endemic cholera in Bangladesh. V. cholerae O1 cells are predominantly coccoid within biofilms but are rod shaped as free-living cells and when attached to plankton or to particulate matter in interepidemic periods of the year. It is concluded that biofilms represent a stage of the annual life cycle of V. cholerae O1, the causative agent of cholera in Bangladesh.

Prevalence of Vibrio cholerae in Coastal Alternative Supplies of Drinking Water and Association with Bacillus-Like Spore Formers

The scarcity of hygienic drinking water is a normal phenomenon in the coastal areas of Bangladesh due to the high salinity of ground water. The inhabitants of this locality, therefore, live on alternative supplies of water including rain-fed pond water, and rainwater with persistent complex microbial interactions therein, often contaminated with life-threatening pathogens. Hence, this study was aimed at analyzing the prevalence of Vibrio cholerae (Vc) in the alternative drinking waters of Mathbaria, a coastal subdistrict neighboring the Bay of Bengal, the efficacy of pond sand filter (PSF) and the co-association among Bacillus-like spore formers (Sf) and Vc. Vc presumably entrapped into the membrane filter was enriched in alkaline peptone water medium and was isolated on selective thiosulfate-citrate-bile salts-sucrose and taurocholate-tellurite-gelatin agar media. They were finally identified by immunochromatographic one step rapid test and serology test. A total of 26% Vc positive samples were obtained out of 100 [ponds—48, household (HH)—29, and PSFs—23] where 13% cases were pathogenic (Vc O1) and 13% were non-pathogenic (Vc non-O1/non-O139). The distribution of Vc as observed was 33, 26, and 13.8% in waters derived from pond surface, PSF, and HH reservoirs, respectively, and for pathogenic type, it was 62.5%, 50%, and nil, respectively. Although none of the samples was identified with pathogenic Vc O139, the statistics represents a significant and augmentative risk of cholera outbreak in the focused area. The antibiotic sensitivity pattern in this study resembled the trend observed during last few years for Vc. The PSF demonstrated its inability to remove Vc from any of the samples and in addition, the filter itself was evidenced to be the source of pathogens and spores in further contamination and transmission. The development of biofilm in the PSF could be hypothesized as the reservoir in contaminating pathogen-free water samples. From the test of homogeneity, the risk levels of alternative water sources were estimated equal regarding Vc. Simultaneously, it was determined statistically that the prevalence of Vc, by no means, is influenced by Bacillus-like Sf be it for pond surface, HH, or PSF derived water.

Nanoparticle-based lateral flow biosensor combined with multiple cross displacement amplification for rapid, visual and sensitive detection of Vibrio cholerae

Vibrio cholerae is an important human pathogen that is responsible for cholera, a severe acute watery diarrhea. In the current study, a multiple cross displacement amplification (MCDA) coupled with amplicon detection by chromatographic lateral flow biosensor (LFB) method (MCDA-LFB) was successfully established and evaluated for the identification of V. cholerae. A set of 10 primers was designed specifically to recognize 10 different regions of the V. cholerae-specific gene ompW. The optimized time and temperature conditions for the MCDA were 30 min and 63°C, respectively. The MCDA-LFB assay correctly identified 31 strains of V. cholerae but did not detect 13 non-cholerae Vibrio strains and 30 non-Vibrio strains. The sensitivity of MCDA-LFB for target pathogen detection in pure culture was 10 fg per reaction. In the case of spiked shrimp samples without enrichment, the limit of detection was 4.1 CFUs per reaction or equivalent to 4.1 × 102 CFU g-1. The whole process, including shrimp homogenates processing (30 min), MCDA reaction (30 min) and results reporting (2 min), could be finished within 65 min. These results show that this assay is suitable for the rapid, sensitive and specific detection of V. cholerae in food, environmental and clinical samples.

Socioeconomic risk factors for cholera in different transmission settings: An analysis of the data of a cluster randomized trial in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Cholera remains a threat globally, and socioeconomic factors play an important role in transmission of the disease. We assessed socioeconomic risk factors for cholera in vaccinated and non-vaccinated communities to understand whether the socioeconomic risk factors differ by transmission patterns for cholera.

METHODS

We used data from a cluster randomized control trial conducted in Dhaka, Bangladesh. There were 90 geographic clusters; 30 in each of the three arms of the study: vaccine (VAC), vaccine plus behavioural change (VBC), and non-intervention. The data were analysed for the three populations: (1) vaccinees in the vaccinated communities (VAC and VBC arms), (2) non-vaccinated individuals in the vaccinated communities and (3) all individuals in the non-vaccinated communities (non-intervention arm). A generalized estimating equation with logit link function was used to evaluate the risk factors for cholera among these different populations adjusting for household level correlation in the data.

RESULTS

A total of 528 cholera and 226 cholera with severe dehydration (CSD) in 268,896 persons were observed during the two-year follow-up. For population 1, the cholera risk was not associated with any socioeconomic factors; however CSD was less likely to occur among individuals living in a household having ≤4 members (aOR=0.55, 95% CI=0.32-0.96). Among population 2, younger participants and individuals reporting diarrhoea during registration were more likely to have cholera. Females and individuals reporting diarrhoea during registration were at increased risk of CSD. Among population 3, individuals living in a household without a concrete floor, in an area with high population density, closer to the study hospital, or not treating drinking water were at significantly higher risk for both cholera and CSD.

CONCLUSION

The profile of socioeconomic factors associated with cholera varies by individuals' vaccination status as well as the transmission setting. In a vaccinated community where transmission would be expected to be lower, socioeconomic factors may not increase the risk of the disease.

Identification of burden hotspots and risk factors for cholera in India: An observational study

Background

Even though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease.

Methodology/Principle findings

We acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010–2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as “hotspots” based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as “hotspots” from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district.

Conclusions/Significance

The study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India.

Molecular Epidemiology of Cholera Outbreaks during the Rainy Season in Mandalay, Myanmar

Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, remains a global threat to public health. In Myanmar, the availability of published information on the occurrence of the disease is scarce. We report here that cholera incidence in Mandalay generally exhibited a single annual peak, with an annual average of 312 patients with severe dehydration over the past 5 years (since 2011) and was closely associated with the rainy season. We analyzed cholera outbreaks, characterized 67 isolates of V. cholerae serogroup O1 in 2015 from patients from Mandalay, and compared them with 22 V. cholerae O1 isolates (12 from Mandalay and 10 from Yangon) in 2014. The isolates carried the classical cholera toxin B subunit (ctxB), the toxin-coregulated pilus A (tcpA) of Haitian type, and repeat sequence transcriptional regulator (rstR) of El Tor type. Two molecular typing methods, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA), differentiated the 89 isolates into seven pulsotypes and 15 MLVA profiles. Pulsotype Y15 and one MLVA profile (11, 7, 7, 16, 7) were predominantly found in the isolates from cholera outbreaks in Mandalay, 2015. Pulsotypes Y11, Y12, and Y15 with some MLVA profiles were detected in the isolates from two remote areas, Mandalay and Yangon, with temporal changes. These data suggested that cholera spread from the seaside to the inland area in Myanmar.

Induction of immunomodulatory miR-146a and miR-155 in small intestinal epithelium of Vibrio cholerae infected patients at acute stage of cholera

The potential immunomodulatory role of microRNAs in small intestine of patients with acute watery diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholerae O1 or enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) infection was investigated. Duodenal biopsies were obtained from study-participants at the acute (day 2) and convalescent (day 21) stages of disease, and from healthy individuals. Levels of miR-146a, miR-155 and miR-375 and target gene (IRAK1, TRAF6, CARD10) and 11 cytokine mRNAs were determined by qRT-PCR. The cellular source of microRNAs in biopsies was analyzed by in situ hybridization. The ability of V. cholerae bacteria and their secreted products to cause changes in microRNA- and mRNA levels in polarized tight monolayers of intestinal epithelial cells was investigated. miR-146a and miR-155 were expressed at significantly elevated levels at acute stage of V. cholerae infection and declined to normal at convalescent stage (P<0.009 versus controls; P = 0.03 versus convalescent stage, pairwise). Both microRNAs were mainly expressed in the epithelium. Only marginal down-regulation of target genes IRAK1 and CARD10 was seen and a weak cytokine-profile was identified in the acute infected mucosa. No elevation of microRNA levels was seen in ETEC infection. Challenge of tight monolayers with the wild type V. cholerae O1 strain C6706 and clinical isolates from two study-participants, caused significant increase in miR-155 and miR-146a by the strain C6706 (P<0.01). One clinical isolate caused reduction in IRAK1 levels (P<0.05) and none of the strains induced inflammatory cytokines. In contrast, secreted factors from these strains caused markedly increased levels of IL-8, IL-1β, and CARD10 (P<0.001), without inducing microRNA expression. Thus, miR-146a and miR-155 are expressed in the duodenal epithelium at the acute stage of cholera. The inducer is probably the V. cholerae bacterium. By inducing microRNAs the bacterium can limit the innate immune response of the host, including inflammation evoked by its own secreted factors, thereby decreasing the risk of being eliminated.

Elucidation of the tidal influence on bacterial populations in a monsoon influenced estuary through simultaneous observations

The influence of tides on bacterial populations in a monsoon influenced tropical estuary was assessed through fine resolution sampling (1 to 3 h) during spring and neap tides from mouth to the freshwater end at four stations during pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Higher abundance of total bacterial count (TBC) in surface water near the river mouth, compared to the upstream, during pre-monsoon was followed by an opposite scenario during the monsoon When seasonally compared, it was during the post-monsoon season when TBC in surface water was highest, with simultaneous decrease in their count in the river sediment. The total viable bacterial count (TVC) was influenced by the depth-wise stratification of salinity, which varied with tidal fluctuation, usually high and low during the neap and spring tides respectively. The abundance of both the autochthonous Vibrio spp. and allochthonous coliform bacteria was influenced by the concentrations of dissolved nutrients and suspended particulate matter (SPM). It is concluded that depending on the interplay of riverine discharge and tidal amplitude, sediment re-suspension mediated increase in SPM significantly regulates bacteria populations in the estuarine water, urging the need of systematic regular monitoring for better prediction of related hazards, including those associated with the rise in pathogenic Vibrio spp. in the changing climatic scenarios.

Characterization of V. cholerae T3SS-dependent cytotoxicity in cultured intestinal epithelial cells

AM-19226 is a pathogenic, non-O1/non-O139 serogroup strain of Vibrio cholerae that uses a Type 3 Secretion System (T3SS) mediated mechanism to colonize host tissues and disrupt homeostasis, causing cholera. Co-culturing the Caco2-BBE human intestinal epithelial cell line with AM-19226 in the presence of bile results in rapid mammalian cell death that requires a functional T3SS. We examined the role of bile, sought to identify the mechanism, and evaluated the contributions of T3SS translocated effectors in in vitro cell death. Our results suggest that Caco2-BBE cytotoxicity does not proceed by apoptotic or necrotic mechanisms, but rather displays characteristics consistent with osmotic lysis. Cell death was preceded by disassembly of epithelial junctions and reorganization of the cortical membrane skeleton, although neither cell death nor cell-cell disruption required VopM or VopF, two effectors known to alter actin dynamics. Using deletion strains, we identified a subset of AM-19226 Vops that are required for host cell death, which were previously assigned roles in protein translocation and colonization, suggesting that they function other than to promote cytotoxicity. The collective results therefore suggest that cooperative Vop activities are required to achieve cytotoxicity in vitro, or alternatively, that translocon pores destabilize the membrane in a bile dependent manner.

PREDICTIVE MODELING OF CHOLERA OUTBREAKS IN BANGLADESH

Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on environmental predictors. To do this, we estimate the contribution of environmental variables, such as water depth and water temperature, to cholera outbreaks in the context of a disease transmission model. We implement a method which simultaneously accounts for disease dynamics and environmental variables in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model. The entire system is treated as a continuous-time hidden Markov model, where the hidden Markov states are the numbers of people who are susceptible, infected, or recovered at each time point, and the observed states are the numbers of cholera cases reported. We use a Bayesian framework to fit this hidden SIRS model, implementing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of the environmental and transmission parameters given the observed data. We test this method using both simulation and data from Mathbaria, Bangladesh. Parameter estimates are used to make short-term predictions that capture the formation and decline of epidemic peaks. We demonstrate that our model can successfully predict an increase in the number of infected individuals in the population weeks before the observed number of cholera cases increases, which could allow for early notification of an epidemic and timely allocation of resources.

O-Specific Polysaccharide-Specific Memory B Cell Responses in Young Children, Older Children, and Adults Infected with Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa in Bangladesh

Cholera caused by Vibrio cholerae O1 confers at least 3 to 10 years of protection against subsequent disease regardless of age, despite a relatively rapid fall in antibody levels in peripheral blood, suggesting that memory B cell responses may play an important role in protection. The V. cholerae O1-specific polysaccharide (OSP) component of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is responsible for serogroup specificity, and it is unclear if young children are capable of developing memory B cell responses against OSP, a T cell-independent antigen, following cholera. To address this, we assessed OSP-specific memory B cell responses in young children (2 to 5 years, n = 11), older children (6 to 17 years, n = 21), and adults (18 to 55 years, n = 28) with cholera caused by V. cholerae O1 in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We also assessed memory B cell responses against LPS and vibriocidal responses, and plasma antibody responses against OSP, LPS, and cholera toxin B subunit (CtxB; a T cell-dependent antigen) on days 2 and 7, as well as days 30, 90, and 180 after convalescence. In all age cohorts, vibriocidal responses and plasma OSP, LPS, and CtxB-specific responses peaked on day 7 and fell toward baseline over the follow-up period. In comparison, we were able to detect OSP memory B cell responses in all age cohorts of patients with detectable responses over baseline for 90 to 180 days. Our results suggest that OSP-specific memory B cell responses can occur following cholera, even in the youngest children, and may explain in part the age-independent induction of long-term immunity following naturally acquired disease.

Clinical and Environmental Surveillance for Vibrio cholerae in Resource Constrained Areas: Application During a 1-Year Surveillance in the Far North Region of Cameroon

Biological confirmation of the presence of Vibrio cholerae in clinical and environmental samples is often constrained due to resource- and labor-intensive gold standard methods. To develop low-cost, simple, and sustainable surveillance techniques, we modified previously published specimen sampling and culture techniques and applied the use of enriched dipstick testing in conjunction with the use of filter paper for DNA specimen preservation during clinical and environmental surveillance in the Far North of Cameroon from August 2013 to October 2014. The enriched dipstick methodology during routine use in a remote setting demonstrated a specificity of 99.8% compared with polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The novel application of filter paper as a preservation method for cholera DNA specimens reduced the need for cold chain storage and allowed for PCR characterization and confirmation of V. cholerae. The application of basic technologies such as the enriched dipstick, the use of simplified gauze filtration for environmental sample collection, and the use of filter paper for sample preservation enabled early case identification with reduced logistics and supply cost while reporting minimal false-positive results. Simplified laboratory and epidemiological methodologies can improve the feasibility of cholera surveillance in rural and resource-constrained areas, facilitating early case detection and rapid response implementation.

Characterization of environmental Vibrio cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 in the Pearl River Estuary, China

Toxigenic isolates of Vibrio cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 from aquatic reservoirs are a key source for recurrent epidemics of cholera in human populations. However, we do not have an optimal understanding of the microbiology of the strains within these reservoirs, particularly outside of the time periods when there are active cholera cases in the surrounding community. The main objective of the present study was to identify and characterize V. cholerae O1 and O139 in the Pearl River Estuary at a time when active disease was not being identified, despite prior occurrence of epidemic cholera in the region. Water samples were collected at 24 sites in the research area at monthly intervals between 2007 and 2010, and screened for the presence of V. cholerae O1 and O139. All isolates were screened for the presence of ctxAB, ompW, toxR, and tcpA genes. Multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) was used to assess possible relationships among strains. The results show that Vibrio cholerae O1 or O139 was isolated, on average, from 6.7% of the sites screened at each time point. All V. cholerae O1 and O139 isolates were ctxAB negative, and 37% were positive for tcpA. Isolation was most common in the oldest, most urbanized district compared with other districts, and was associated with lower pH. Despite year-to-year variability in isolation rates, there was no evidence of seasonality. MLVA of 27 selected isolates showed evidence of high genetic diversity, with no evidence of clustering by year or geographic location. In this region where cholera has been epidemic in the past, there is evidence of environmental persistence of V. cholerae O1 and O139 strains. However, environmental strains were consistently nontoxigenic, with a high level of genetic diversity; their role as current or future agents of human disease remains uncertain.

The out-of-the-delta hypothesis: dense human populations in low-lying river deltas served as agents for the evolution of a deadly pathogen

Cholera is a diarrheal disease that has changed the history of mankind, devastating the world with seven pandemics from 1817 to the present day. Although there is little doubt in the causative agent of these pandemics being Vibrio cholerae of the O1 serogroup, where, when, and how this pathogen emerged is not well understood. V. cholerae is a ubiquitous coastal species that likely existed for tens of thousands of years. However, the evolution of a strain capable of causing a large-scale epidemic is likely more recent historically. Here, we propose that the unique human and physical geography of low-lying river deltas made it possible for an environmental bacterium to evolve into a deadly human pathogen. Such areas are often densely populated and salt intrusion in drinking water frequent. As V. cholerae is most abundant in brackish water, its favored environment, it is likely that coastal inhabitants would regularly ingest the bacterium and release it back in the environment. This creates a continuous selection pressure for V. cholerae to adapt to life in the human gut.

Incidence of severe diarrhoea due to Vibrio cholerae in the catchment area of six surveillance hospitals in Bangladesh

Cholera is an important public health problem in Bangladesh. Interventions to prevent cholera depend on their cost-effectiveness which in turn depends on cholera incidence. Hospital-based diarrhoeal disease surveillance has been ongoing in six Bangladeshi hospitals where a systematic proportion of patients admitted with diarrhoea were enrolled and tested for Vibrio cholerae. However, incidence calculation using only hospital data underestimates the real disease burden because many ill persons seek treatment elsewhere. We conducted a healthcare utilization survey in the catchment areas of surveillance hospitals to estimate the proportion of severe diarrhoeal cases that were admitted to surveillance hospitals and estimated the population-based incidence of severe diarrhoea due to V. cholerae by combining both hospital surveillance and catchment area survey data. The estimated incidence of severe diarrhoea due to cholera ranged from 0.3 to 4.9/1000 population in the catchment area of surveillance hospitals. In children aged <5 years, incidence ranged from 1.0 to 11.0/1000 children. Diarrhoeal deaths were most common in the Chhatak Hospital's catchment area (18.5/100 000 population). This study provides a credible estimate of the incidence of severe diarrhoea due to cholera in Bangladesh, which can be used to assess the cost-effectiveness of cholera prevention activities.

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

In situ proteolysis of the Vibrio cholerae matrix protein RbmA promotes biofilm recruitment

The estuarine gram-negative rod and human diarrheal pathogen Vibrio cholerae synthesizes a VPS exopolysaccharide-dependent biofilm matrix that allows it to form a 3D structure on surfaces. Proteins associated with the matrix include, RbmA, RbmC, and Bap1. RbmA, a protein whose crystallographic structure suggests two binding surfaces, associates with cells by means of a VPS-dependent mechanism and promotes biofilm cohesiveness and recruitment of cells to the biofilm. Here, we show that RbmA undergoes limited proteolysis within the biofilm. This proteolysis, which is carried out by the hemagglutinin/protease and accessory proteases, yields the 22-kDa C-terminal polypeptide RbmA*. RbmA* remains biofilm-associated. Unlike full-length RbmA, the association of RbmA* with cells is no longer VPS-dependent, likely due to an electropositive surface revealed by proteolysis. We provide evidence that this proteolysis event plays a role in recruitment of VPS(-) cells to the biofilm surface. Based on our findings, we propose that association of RbmA with the matrix reinforces the biofilm structure and leads to limited proteolysis of RbmA to RbmA*. RbmA*, in turn, promotes recruitment of cells that have not yet initiated VPS synthesis to the biofilm surface. The assignment of two functions to RbmA, separated by a proteolytic event that depends on matrix association, dictates an iterative cycle in which reinforcement of recently added biofilm layers precedes the recruitment of new VPS(-) cells to the biofilm.

Comparative effectiveness of different strategies of oral cholera vaccination in bangladesh: a modeling study

Background

Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies.

Methods & Findings

We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1–14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies.

Conclusions

We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions.

Bangladesh has a high burden of cholera and may become the first country to use cholera vaccine on a large scale. Mass cholera vaccination may be hard to justify to international funding agencies because of the modest efficacy of existing vaccines and their limited duration of protection. However, mass cholera vaccination can induce high levels of indirect protection in a population, i.e., protecting even unvaccinated individuals by lowering cholera incidence, and a case for cost-effective cholera vaccination could be made. Mathematical modeling is one way to predict the magnitude of indirect protection conferred by a proposed vaccination program. Here, we predict the effectiveness of various mass cholera vaccination strategies in Bangladesh using a mathematical model. We found that maintaining high levels of vaccination coverage in children could be very effective in reducing the burden of cholera, and secondary transmission of cholera would virtually stop when 70% of the population is vaccinated. Mathematical modeling may play a key role in planning widespread cholera vaccination efforts in Bangladesh and other countries.

Household Transmission of Vibrio cholerae in Bangladesh

Background

Vibrio cholerae infections cluster in households. This study's objective was to quantify the relative contribution of direct, within-household exposure (for example, via contamination of household food, water, or surfaces) to endemic cholera transmission. Quantifying the relative contribution of direct exposure is important for planning effective prevention and control measures.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Symptom histories and multiple blood and fecal specimens were prospectively collected from household members of hospital-ascertained cholera cases in Bangladesh from 2001–2006. We estimated the probabilities of cholera transmission through 1) direct exposure within the household and 2) contact with community-based sources of infection. The natural history of cholera infection and covariate effects on transmission were considered. Significant direct transmission (p-value<0.0001) occurred among 1414 members of 364 households. Fecal shedding of O1 El Tor Ogawa was associated with a 4.9% (95% confidence interval: 0.9%–22.8%) risk of infection among household contacts through direct exposure during an 11-day infectious period (mean length). The estimated 11-day risk of O1 El Tor Ogawa infection through exposure to community-based sources was 2.5% (0.8%–8.0%). The corresponding estimated risks for O1 El Tor Inaba and O139 infection were 3.7% (0.7%–16.6%) and 8.2% (2.1%–27.1%) through direct exposure, and 3.4% (1.7%–6.7%) and 2.0% (0.5%–7.3%) through community-based exposure. Children under 5 years-old were at elevated risk of infection. Limitations of the study may have led to an underestimation of the true risk of cholera infection. For instance, available covariate data may have incompletely characterized levels of pre-existing immunity to cholera infection. Transmission via direct exposure occurring outside of the household was not considered.

Conclusions

Direct exposure contributes substantially to endemic transmission of symptomatic cholera in an urban setting. We provide the first estimate of the transmissibility of endemic cholera within prospectively-followed members of households. The role of direct transmission must be considered when planning cholera control activities.

Since John Snow's ground-breaking investigations of the devastating outbreaks in 19^th-century London, cholera has been considered the quintessential waterborne human infection, transmitting via fecal contamination of environmental water sources. Recently, renewed interest has been paid to the potential importance of transmission through direct exposure within close-contact groups, such as, via fecal contamination of surfaces, food, or drinking water within households. Significant direct transmission of cholera within close contact groups would represent a new target for innovative prevention and control strategies. We estimated the probability of transmission 1) via direct contact within 364 urban households located in an endemic cholera setting (Dhaka, Bangladesh) and 2) via exposure to sources located outside of these households. In this setting we estimated a 4 to 8 percent probability of becoming infected with cholera via direct exposure within households in this setting versus a 2 to 3 percent likelihood of infection due to exposure to external sources over a comparable time period. Our results demonstrate that direct (within-household) transmission is a significant component of endemic cholera transmission, suggesting that biomedical and behavioral-modification interventions specifically targeting this mode of transmission could substantially reduce the cholera burden in this type of setting.