Models for Eco-Evolutionary Extinction Vortices under Balancing Selection

Population Genomic History of the Endangered Anatolian and Cyprian Mouflons in Relation to Worldwide Wild, Feral, and Domestic Sheep Lineages

Once widespread in their homelands, the Anatolian mouflon (Ovis gmelini anatolica) and the Cyprian mouflon (Ovis gmelini ophion) were driven to near extinction during the 20th century and are currently listed as endangered populations by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. While the exact origins of these lineages remain unclear, they have been suggested to be close relatives of domestic sheep or remnants of proto-domestic sheep. Here, we study whole genome sequences of n = 5 Anatolian mouflons and n = 10 Cyprian mouflons in terms of population history and diversity, comparing them with eight other extant sheep lineages. We find reciprocal genetic affinity between Anatolian and Cyprian mouflons and domestic sheep, higher than all other studied wild sheep genomes, including the Iranian mouflon (O. gmelini). Studying diversity indices, we detect a considerable load of short runs of homozygosity blocks (<2 Mb) in both Anatolian and Cyprian mouflons, reflecting small effective population size (Ne). Meanwhile, Ne and mutation load estimates are lower in Cyprian compared with Anatolian mouflons, suggesting the purging of recessive deleterious variants in Cyprian sheep under a small long-term Ne, possibly attributable to founder effects, island isolation, introgression from domestic lineages, or differences in their bottleneck dynamics. Expanding our analyses to worldwide wild and feral Ovis genomes, we observe varying viability metrics among different lineages and a limited consistency between viability metrics and International Union for Conservation of Nature conservation status. Factors such as recent inbreeding, introgression, and unique population dynamics may have contributed to the observed disparities.

A Numerical Model Supports the Evolutionary Advantage of Recombination Plasticity in Shifting Environments

AbstractNumerous empirical studies have witnessed an increase in meiotic recombination rate in response to physiological stress imposed by unfavorable environmental conditions. Thus, inherited plasticity in recombination rate is hypothesized to be evolutionarily advantageous in changing environments. Previous theoretical models proceeded from the assumption that organisms increase their recombination rate when the environment becomes more stressful and demonstrated the evolutionary advantage of such a form of plasticity. Here, we numerically explore a complementary scenario-when the plastic increase in recombination rate is triggered by the environmental shifts. Specifically, we assume increased recombination in individuals developing in a different environment than their parents and, optionally, also in offspring of such individuals. We show that such shift-inducible recombination is always superior when the optimal constant recombination implies an intermediate rate. Moreover, under certain conditions, plastic recombination may also appear beneficial when the optimal constant recombination is either zero or free. The advantage of plastic recombination was better predicted by the range of the population's mean fitness over the period of environmental fluctuations, compared with the geometric mean fitness. These results hold for both panmixia and partial selfing, with faster dynamics of recombination modifier alleles under selfing. We think that recombination plasticity can be acquired under the control of environmentally responsive mechanisms, such as chromatin epigenetics remodeling.

The effect of divergent and parallel selection on the genomic landscape of divergence

While the role of selection in divergence along the speciation continuum is theoretically well understood, defining specific signatures of selection in the genomic landscape of divergence is empirically challenging. Modelling approaches can provide insight into the potential role of selection on the emergence of a heterogenous genomic landscape of divergence. Here, we extend and apply an individual-based approach that simulates the phenotypic and genotypic distributions of two populations under a variety of selection regimes, genotype-phenotype maps, modes of migration, and genotype-environment interactions. We show that genomic islands of high differentiation and genomic valleys of similarity may respectively form under divergent and parallel selection between populations. For both types of between-population selection, negative and positive frequency-dependent selection within populations generated genomic islands of higher magnitude and genomic valleys of similarity, respectively. Divergence rates decreased under strong dominance with divergent selection, as well as in models including genotype-environment interactions under parallel selection. For both divergent and parallel selection models, divergence rate was higher under an intermittent migration regime between populations, in contrast to a constant level of migration across generations, despite an equal number of total migrants. We highlight that interpreting a particular evolutionary history from an observed genomic pattern must be done cautiously, as similar patterns may be obtained from different combinations of evolutionary processes. Modelling approaches such as ours provide an opportunity to narrow the potential routes that generate the genomic patterns of specific evolutionary histories.

Multi-scale effects of habitat loss and the role of trait evolution

Habitat loss (HL) is a major cause of species extinctions. Although the effects of HL beyond the directly impacted area have been previously observed, they have not been modelled explicitly, especially in an eco-evolutionary context. To start filling this gap, we study a two-patch deterministic consumer-resource model, with one of the patches experiencing loss of resources as a special case of HL. Our model allows foraging and mating within a patch as well as between patches. We then introduce heritable variation in consumer traits related to resource utilization and patch use to investigate eco-evolutionary dynamics and compare results with constant and no trait variation scenarios. Our results show that HL in one patch can indeed reduce consumer densities in the neighbouring patch but can also increase consumer densities in the neighbouring patch when the resources are overexploited. Yet at the landscape scale, the effect of HL on consumer densities is consistently negative. Patch isolation increases consumer density in the patch experiencing HL but has generally negative effects on the neighbouring patch, with context-dependent results at the landscape scale. With high cross-patch dependence and coupled foraging and mating preferences, local HL can sometimes even lead to landscape-level consumer extinction. Eco-evolutionary dynamics can rescue consumers from such extinction in some cases if their death rates are sufficiently small. More generally, trait evolution had positive or negative effects on equilibrium consumer densities after HL, depending on the evolving trait and the spatial scale considered. In summary, our findings show that HL at a local scale can affect the neighbouring patch and the landscape as a whole, where heritable trait variation can, in some cases, alleviate the impact of HL. We thus suggest joint consideration of multiple spatial scales and trait variation when assessing and predicting the impacts of HL.

Evolutionary rescue under demographic and environmental stochasticity

Populations suffer two types of stochasticity: demographic stochasticity, from sampling error in offspring number, and environmental stochasticity, from temporal variation in the growth rate. By modelling evolution through phenotypic selection following an abrupt environmental change, we investigate how genetic and demographic dynamics, as well as effects on population survival of the genetic variance and of the strength of stabilizing selection, differ under the two types of stochasticity. We show that population survival probability declines sharply with stronger stabilizing selection under demographic stochasticity, but declines more continuously when environmental stochasticity is strengthened. However, the genetic variance that confers the highest population survival probability differs little under demographic and environmental stochasticity. Since the influence of demographic stochasticity is stronger when population size is smaller, a slow initial decline of genetic variance, which allows quicker evolution, is important for population persistence. In contrast, the influence of environmental stochasticity is population-size-independent, so higher initial fitness becomes important for survival under strong environmental stochasticity. The two types of stochasticity interact in a more than multiplicative way in reducing the population survival probability. Our work suggests the importance of explicitly distinguishing and measuring the forms of stochasticity during evolutionary rescue.

Beyond simple adaptation: Incorporating other evolutionary processes and concepts into eco-evolutionary dynamics

Studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics have integrated evolution with ecological processes at multiple scales (populations, communities and ecosystems) and with multiple interspecific interactions (antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive). However, evolution has often been conceptualised as a simple process: short-term directional adaptation that increases population growth. Here we argue that diverse other evolutionary processes, well studied in population genetics and evolutionary ecology, should also be considered to explore the full spectrum of feedback between ecological and evolutionary processes. Relevant but underappreciated processes include (1) drift and mutation, (2) disruptive selection causing lineage diversification or speciation reversal and (3) evolution driven by relative fitness differences that may decrease population growth. Because eco-evolutionary dynamics have often been studied by population and community ecologists, it will be important to incorporate a variety of concepts in population genetics and evolutionary ecology to better understand and predict eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature.

Modeling minimum viable population size with multiple genetic problems of small populations

An important goal for conservation is to define minimum viable population (MVP) sizes for long-term persistence of a species. There is increasing evidence of the role of genetics in population extinction; thus, conservation practitioners are starting to consider the effects of deleterious mutations (DM), in particular the effects of inbreeding depression on fitness. We sought to develop methods to account for genetic problems other than inbreeding depression in MVP estimates, quantify the effect of the interaction of multiple genetic problems on MVP sizes, and find ways to reduce the arbitrariness of time and persistence probability thresholds in MVP analyses. To do so, we developed ecoevolutionary quantitative models to track population size and levels of genetic diversity. We assumed a biallelic multilocus genome with loci under single or multiple, interacting genetic forces. We included mutation-selection-drift balance (for loci with DM) and 3 forms of balancing selection for loci for which variation is lost through genetic drift. We defined MVP size as the lowest population size that avoids an ecoevolutionary extinction vortex. For populations affected by only balancing selection, MVP size decreased rapidly as mutation rates increased. For populations affected by mutation-selection-drift balance, the MVP size increased rapidly. In addition, MVP sizes increased rapidly as the number of loci increased under the same or different selection mechanisms until even arbitrarily large populations could not survive. In the case of fixed number of loci under selection, interaction of genetic problems did not always increase MVP sizes. To further enhance understanding about interaction of genetic problems, there is need for more empirical studies to reveal how different genetic processes interact in the genome.

Tracking population genetic signatures of local extinction with herbarium specimens

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Habitat degradation and landscape fragmentation dramatically lower population sizes of rare plant species. Decreasing population sizes may, in turn, negatively affect genetic diversity and reproductive fitness, which can ultimately lead to local extinction of populations. Although such extinction vortex dynamics have been postulated in theory and modelling for decades, empirical evidence from local extinctions of plant populations is scarce. In particular, comparisons between current vs. historical genetic diversity and differentiation are lacking despite their potential to guide conservation management.

METHODS

We studied the population genetic signatures of the local extinction of Biscutella laevigata subsp. gracilis populations in Central Germany. We used microsatellites to genotype individuals from 15 current populations, one ex situ population, and 81 herbarium samples from five extant and 22 extinct populations. In the current populations, we recorded population size and fitness proxies, collected seeds for a germination trial and conducted a vegetation survey. The latter served as a surrogate for habitat conditions to study how habitat dissimilarity affects functional connectivity among the current populations.

KEY RESULTS

Bayesian clustering revealed similar gene pool distribution in current and historical samples but also indicated that a distinct genetic cluster was significantly associated with extinction probability. Gene flow was affected by both the spatial distance and floristic composition of population sites, highlighting the potential of floristic composition as a powerful predictor of functional connectivity which may promote decision-making for reintroduction measures. For an extinct population, we found a negative relationship between sampling year and heterozygosity. Inbreeding negatively affected germination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study illustrates the usefulness of historical DNA to study extinction vortices in threatened species. Our novel combination of classical population genetics together with data from herbarium specimens, an ex situ population and a germination trial underlines the need for genetic rescue measures to prevent extinction of B. laevigata in Central Germany.

Plastic and quantitative genetic divergence mirror environmental gradients among wild, fragmented populations of Impatiens capensis

PREMISE

Habitat fragmentation generates molecular genetic divergence among isolated populations, but few studies have assessed phenotypic divergence and fitness in populations where the genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation are known. Phenotypic divergence could reflect plasticity, local adaptation, and/or genetic drift.

METHODS

We examined patterns and potential drivers of phenotypic divergence among 12 populations of jewelweed (Impatiens capensis) that show strong molecular genetic signals of isolation and drift among fragmented habitats. We measured morphological and reproductive traits in both maternal plants within natural populations and their self-fertilized progeny grown together in a common garden. We also quantified environmental divergence between home sites and the common garden.

RESULTS

Populations with less molecular genetic variation expressed less maternal phenotypic variation. Progeny in the common garden converged in phenotypes relative to their wild mothers but retained among-population differences in morphology, survival, and reproduction. Among-population phenotypic variance was 3-10× greater in home sites than in the common garden for 6 of 7 morphological traits measured. Patterns of phenotypic divergence paralleled environmental gradients in ways suggestive of adaptation. Progeny resembled their mothers less as the environmental distance between their home site and the common garden increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite strong molecular signatures of isolation and drift, phenotypic differences among these Impatiens populations appear to reflect both adaptive quantitative genetic divergence and plasticity. Quantifying the extent of local adaptation and plasticity and how these covary with molecular and phenotypic variation help us predict when populations may lose their adaptive capacity.