Dryland Salinity and the Ecology of Ross River Virus: The Ecological Underpinnings of the Potential for Transmission

Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average β = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

Physiology and ecology combine to determine host and vector importance for Ross River virus

Identifying the key vector and host species that drive the transmission of zoonotic pathogens is notoriously difficult but critical for disease control. We present a nested approach for quantifying the importance of host and vectors that integrates species' physiological competence with their ecological traits. We apply this framework to a medically important arbovirus, Ross River virus (RRV), in Brisbane, Australia. We find that vertebrate hosts with high physiological competence are not the most important for community transmission; interactions between hosts and vectors largely underpin the importance of host species. For vectors, physiological competence is highly important. Our results identify primary and secondary vectors of RRV and suggest two potential transmission cycles in Brisbane: an enzootic cycle involving birds and an urban cycle involving humans. The framework accounts for uncertainty from each fitted statistical model in estimates of species' contributions to transmission and has has direct application to other zoonotic pathogens.

Relationship between Land Use/Land-Use Change and Human Health in Australia: A Scoping Study

We undertook a scoping study to map the relevant evidence, summarise the findings, and to help identify gaps in the knowledge base on the relationship between land use/land-use change and human health in Australia. Our systematic search of the scientific literature for relevant articles up to August 2020 identified 37 articles. All 37 articles meeting our inclusion criteria were published after 2003. Zoonotic or vector-borne disease constituted the most common health outcome type studied. Agriculture/grazing was the land use/land-use change type most frequently represented in the literature, followed by coal seam gas extraction and open cut coal mining. The relationship between land use/land use change and human health in Australia, is not conclusive from the existing evidence. This is because of (1) a lack of comprehensive coverage of the topic, (2) a lack of coverage of the geography, (3) a lack of coverage of study types, and (4) conflicting results in the research already undertaken. If we are to protect human health and the ecosystems which support life, more high-quality, specific, end-user driven research is needed to support land management decisions in Australia. Until the health effects of further land use change are better known and understood, caution ought to be practiced in land management and land conversion.

Emerging zoonotic diseases originating in mammals: a systematic review of effects of anthropogenic land-use change

Zoonotic pathogens and parasites that are transmitted from vertebrates to humans are a major public health risk with high associated global economic costs. The spread of these pathogens and risk of transmission accelerate with recent anthropogenic land-use changes (LUC) such as deforestation, urbanisation, and agricultural intensification, factors that are expected to increase in the future due to human population expansion and increasing demand for resources.We systematically review the literature on anthropogenic LUC and zoonotic diseases, highlighting the most prominent mammalian reservoirs and pathogens, and identifying avenues for future research.The majority of studies were global reviews that did not focus on specific taxa. South America and Asia were the most-studied regions, while the most-studied LUC was urbanisation. Livestock were studied more within the context of agricultural intensification, carnivores with urbanisation and helminths, bats with deforestation and viruses, and primates with habitat fragmentation and protozoa.Research into specific animal reservoirs has improved our understanding of how the spread of zoonotic diseases is affected by LUC. The behaviour of hosts can be altered when their habitats are changed, impacting the pathogens they carry and the probability of disease spreading to humans. Understanding this has enabled the identification of factors that alter the risk of emergence (such as virulence, pathogen diversity, and ease of transmission). Yet, many pathogens and impacts of LUC other than urbanisation have been understudied.Predicting how zoonotic diseases emerge and spread in response to anthropogenic LUC requires more empirical and data synthesis studies that link host ecology and responses with pathogen ecology and disease spread. The link between anthropogenic impacts on the natural environment and the recent COVID-19 pandemic highlights the urgent need to understand how anthropogenic LUC affects the risk of spillover to humans and spread of zoonotic diseases originating in mammals.

Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Thermal biology predicts that vector-borne disease transmission peaks at intermediate temperatures and declines at high and low temperatures. However, thermal optima and limits remain unknown for most vector-borne pathogens. We built a mechanistic model for the thermal response of Ross River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Australia, Pacific Islands, and potentially at risk of emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks at moderate temperatures (26.4°C) and declines to zero at thermal limits (17.0 and 31.5°C). The model accurately predicts that transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics but seasonal in temperate areas, resulting in the nationwide seasonal peak in human cases. Climate warming will likely increase transmission in temperate areas (where most Australians live) but decrease transmission in tropical areas where mean temperatures are already near the thermal optimum. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear models for inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting responses to climate change.

Mosquitoes cannot control their body temperature, so their survival and performance depend on the temperature where they live. As a result, outside temperatures can also affect the spread of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. This has left scientists wondering how climate change may affect the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Predicting the effects of climate change on such diseases is tricky, because many interacting factors, including temperatures and rainfall, affect mosquito populations. Also, rising temperatures do not always have a positive effect on mosquitoes – they may help mosquitoes initially, but it can get too warm even for these animals.

Climate change could affect the Ross River virus, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia. The virus infects 2,000 to 9,000 people each year and can cause long-term joint pain and disability. Currently, the virus spreads year-round in tropical, northern Australia and seasonally in temperate, southern Australia. Large outbreaks have occurred outside of Australia, and scientists are worried it could spread worldwide.

Now, Shocket et al. have built a model that predicts how the spread of Ross River virus changes with temperature. Shocket et al. used data from laboratory experiments that measured mosquito and virus performance across a broad range of temperatures. The experiments showed that ~26°C (80°F) is the optimal temperature for mosquitoes to spread the Ross River virus. Temperatures below 17°C (63°F) and above 32°C (89°F) hamper the spread of the virus. These temperature ranges match the current disease patterns in Australia where human cases peak in March. This is two months after the country’s average temperature reaches the optimal level and about how long it takes mosquito populations to grow, infect people, and for symptoms to develop.

Because northern Australia is already near the optimal temperature for mosquitos to spread the Ross River virus, any climate warming should decrease transmission there. But warming temperatures could increase the disease’s transmission in the southern part of the country, where most people live. The model Shocket et al. created may help the Australian government and mosquito control agencies better plan for the future.

Epidemic host community contribution to mosquito-borne disease transmission: Ross River virus

Most vector-borne diseases infect multiple host species, but disentangling the relative importance of different host species to transmission can be complex. Here we study how host species' abundance and competence (duration and titre of parasitaemia) influence host importance during epidemic scenarios. We evaluate this theory using Ross River virus (RRV, family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus), a multi-host mosquito-borne disease with significant human health impacts across Australia and Papua New Guinea. We used host contribution models to find the importance of key hosts (possums, wallabies, kangaroos, horses, humans) in typical mammal communities around five Australian epidemic centres. We found humans and possums contributed most to epidemic RRV transmission, owing to their high abundances, generally followed by macropods. This supports humans as spillover hosts, and that human-mosquito and possum-mosquito transmission is predominant during epidemics. Sensitivity analyses indicate these findings to be robust across epidemic centres. We emphasize the importance of considering abundance and competence in identifying key hosts (during epidemics in this case), and that competence alone is inadequate. Knowledge of host importance in disease transmission may help to equip health agencies to bring about greater effectiveness of disease mitigation strategies.

Exploring the potential for Ross River virus emergence in New Zealand

Ross River virus (RRV) is an exotic vector-borne disease considered highly likely to emerge as a future human health issue in New Zealand, with its range expansion from Australia being driven by exotic mosquito introduction and improving conditions for mosquito breeding. We investigated our ability to assess the potential for such emergence using deterministic modeling and making preliminary predictions based on currently available evidence. Although data on actual mosquito densities (as opposed to indices) were identified as a need for predictions to be made with greater confidence, this approach generated a contrasting prediction to current opinion. Only limited potential for RRV emergence in New Zealand was predicted, with outbreaks in the human population more likely of concern in urban areas (mainly should major exotic vectors of the virus establish). The mechanistic nature of the model also allowed the understanding that if such outbreaks do occur, they will most likely be driven by virus amplification in dense human populations (as opposed to the spillover infection from wildlife common in Australia). With implications for biosecurity and health care resource allocation, modeling approaches such as that employed here have much to offer both for disease emergence prediction and surveillance strategy design.

Analysis and prediction of Ross River virus transmission in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. The disease is maintained in enzootic cycles between mosquitoes and reservoir hosts. During outbreaks and in endemic regions, RRV transmission can be sustained between vectors and reservoir hosts in zoonotic cycles with spillover to humans. Symptoms include arthritis, rash, fever and fatigue and can persist for several months. The prevalence and associated morbidity make this disease a medically and economically important mosquito-borne disease in Australia.

METHODS

Climate, environment, and RRV vector and reservoir host information were used to develop predictive models in four regions in NSW over a 13-year period (1991-2004). Polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models were used to explore long-term influences of up to 2 years ago that could be related to RRV activity.

RESULTS

Each regional model consisted of a unique combination of predictors for RRV disease highlighting the differences in the disease ecology and epidemiology in New South Wales (NSW). Events up to 2 years before were found to influence RRV activity. The shorter-term associations may reflect conditions that promote virus amplification in RRV vectors whereas long-term associations may reflect RRV reservoir host breeding and herd immunity. The models indicate an association between host populations and RRV disease, lagged by 24 months, suggesting two or more generations of susceptible juveniles may be necessary for an outbreak. Model sensitivities ranged from 60.4% to 73.1%, and model specificities ranged from 57.9% to 90.7%. This was the first study to include reservoir host data into statistical RRV models; the inclusion of host parameters was found to improve model fit significantly.

CONCLUSION

The research presents the novel use of a combination of climate, environment, and RRV vector and reservoir host information in statistical predictive models. The models have potential for public health decision-making.

Land-use change and emerging infectious disease on an island continent

A more rigorous and nuanced understanding of land-use change (LUC) as a driver of emerging infectious disease (EID) is required. Here we examine post hunter-gatherer LUC as a driver of infectious disease in one biogeographical region with a compressed and documented history--continental Australia. We do this by examining land-use and native vegetation change (LUCC) associations with infectious disease emergence identified through a systematic (1973-2010) and historical (1788-1973) review of infectious disease literature of humans and animals. We find that 22% (20) of the systematically reviewed EIDs are associated with LUCC, most frequently where natural landscapes have been removed or replaced with agriculture, plantations, livestock or urban development. Historical clustering of vector-borne, zoonotic and environmental disease emergence also follows major periods of extensive land clearing. These advanced stages of LUCC are accompanied by changes in the distribution and density of hosts and vectors, at varying scales and chronology. This review of infectious disease emergence in one continent provides valuable insight into the association between accelerated global LUC and concurrent accelerated infectious disease emergence.

Bionomics of Culex quinquefasciatus within urban areas of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate density, parity rates, daily survival and longevity of natural populations of Culex quinquefasciatus in three neighborhoods with distinct socio-economic and infrastructure profiles. METHODS: Mosquito collections of the Culex quinquefasciatus species were performed weekly during two four month periods, from August to November 2008 (spring) and March to June 2009 (fall), in a favela (slum), a suburban area and a middle class area of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. Collections were performed with backpack aspirators, in 20 randomly selected houses in each area per week, during 15-20 minutes per house. Ovaries were removed from captured females and classified as initial, intermediary or final stage. Furthermore, females were dissected for determination of parity based on the condition of the tracheal system. Mosquito survival rate and longevity were estimated on a per month basis for each neighborhood. RESULTS: We collected a total of 2,062 Culex quinquefasciatus, but monthly vector density was not correlated with temperature and rainfall. We dissected the ovaries of 625 Culex quinquefasciatus, and overall, there was a higher proportion of nulliparous females during the dryer months, while gravid females were more frequent in rainy months. In the middle class neighborhood, the parity rate reached up to 93.75% with survivorship of 0.979. Lower parity and survival rates were obtained in the suburban area (as low as 36.4% parity and 0.711 daily survival). Up to 84.7% of Culex quinquefasciatus females could survive the eight day period needed to complete West Nile Virus incubation. CONCLUSIONS: The survival rate of Culex quinquefasciatus varied significantly between the neighborhoods. This suggests that vectorial capacity and disease transmission risk may vary greatly between different urban areas, which is potentially useful information for vector control programs.

Dryland salinity and vector-borne disease emergence in southwestern Australia

Broad-scale clearing of native vegetation for agriculture in southwestern Australia has resulted in severe ecosystem degradation, which has been compounded by the subsequent development of large areas of dryland salinity; decreased transevaporation allows the water table to rise, dissolving ancient aeolian salt deposits and creating saline surface pools. The mosquito-borne disease Ross River virus has been noted as a potential adverse human health outcome in salinity-affected regions because the principal vector, Aedes camptorhynchus, is salt tolerant and thrives preferentially in such systems. To understand the geology and ecology underlying the relationship between land clearing and disease emergence, we examine the relationship between dryland salinity processes that determine the dissolved solids profile of saline pools in affected areas, the mosquito vectors and interactions with the human population within the disease cycle. Aedes camptorhynchus is able to survive in a wide range of salinities in pools created by dryland salinity processes. The link with disease emergence is achieved where population distribution and activity overlaps with the convergence of environmental and ecological conditions that enhance disease transmission.

Biological and cultural coevolution and emerging infectious disease: Ross River virus in Australia

Enhanced virulence of pathogens infecting host populations, with no previous exposure thereto, is characteristic of many diseases labelled "emerging" or "resurging". One cause of emergence characteristics can be interpreted as absence of co-evolutionary optimization of interactions between hosts and pathogens. We explore the historical and evolutionary development between Ross River virus (RRV) and its human host in Australia; a mosquito vectored pathogen causing polyarthritic symptoms. Epidemics of RRV have increased in frequency, size and range throughout European settlement. We hypothesise that human cultural evolution contributed to the emergence of RRV in humans, and argue that epidemics of RRV were unlikely to occur in Aboriginal hunter-gatherer societies in Australia's early human history, but only occur in more recent agrarian and industrial societies. A perspective of cultural evolution, in addition to biological evolution, may help with understanding the determinants of disease emergence and resurgence, and inform ongoing development of effective public health interventions.

Colonization of ephemeral water bodies in the Wheatbelt of Western Australia by assemblages of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae): role of environmental factors, habitat, and disturbance

Environmental disturbance may have direct and indirect impacts on organisms. We studied the colonization of ephemeral water bodies by mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Wheatbelt region of southwest Western Australia, an area substantially affected by an expanding anthropogenic salinization. Mosquitoes frequently colonized ephemeral water bodies, responded positively to rainfall, and populated smaller water bodies more densely than larger water bodies. We found that the habitat characteristics of ephemeral water bodies changed in association with salinity. Consequently relationships between salinity and abundance of colonizing mosquitoes were direct (salinity-mosquito) and indirect (salinity-water body characteristics-mosquito). Overall, the structure of mosquito assemblages changed with increasing salinity, favoring an increased regional distribution and abundance of Aedes camptorhynchus Thomson (Diptera: Culicidae), a vector of Ross river virus (RRV; Togoviridae: Alphavirus). We conclude secondary salinization in the Western Australia Wheatbelt results in enhanced vectorial potential for RRV transmission.