Causal associations of alcohol consumption with cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality among Chinese males

Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for Coronary Artery Disease Using Extreme Gradient Boosting

Purpose

Early recognition of coronary artery disease (CAD) could delay its progress and significantly reduce mortality. Sensitive, specific, cost-efficient and non-invasive indicators for assessing individual CAD risk in community population screening are urgently needed.

Patients and Methods

3112 patients with CAD and 3182 controls were recruited from three clinical centers in China, and differences in baseline and clinical characteristics were compared. For the discovery cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to identify significant features and four machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)) were applied to construct models for CAD risk assessment, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and precision-recall (PR) curve were conducted to evaluate their predictive accuracy. The optimal model was interpreted by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis and assessed by the ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and validated by two external cohorts.

Results

Using LASSO filtration, all included variables were considered to be statistically significant. Four machine learning models were constructed based on these features and the results of ROC and PR curve implied that the XGBoost model exhibited the highest predictive performance, which yielded a high area of ROC curve (AUC) of 0.988 (95% CI: 0.986-0.991) to distinguish CAD patients from controls with a sensitivity of 94.6% and a specificity of 94.6%. The calibration curve showed that the predicted results were in good agreement with actual observations, and DCA exhibited a better net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. External validation of the model also exhibited favorable discriminatory performance, with an AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.953 (95% CI: 0.945-0.960), 89.9%, and 87.1% in the validation cohort, and 0.935 (95% CI: 0.915-0.955), 82.0%, and 90.3% in the replication cohort.

Conclusion

Our model is highly informative for clinical practice and will be conducive to primary prevention and tailoring the precise management for CAD patients.

What Causes Premature Coronary Artery Disease?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review provides an overview of genetic and non-genetic causes of premature coronary artery disease (pCAD).

RECENT FINDINGS

pCAD refers to coronary artery disease (CAD) occurring before the age of 65 years in women and 55 years in men. Both genetic and non-genetic risk factors may contribute to the onset of pCAD. Recent advances in the genetic epidemiology of pCAD have revealed the importance of both monogenic and polygenic contributions to pCAD. Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is the most common monogenic disorder associated with atherosclerotic pCAD. However, clinical overreliance on monogenic genes can result in overlooked genetic causes of pCAD, especially polygenic contributions. Non-genetic factors, notably smoking and drug use, are also important contributors to pCAD. Cigarette smoking has been observed in 25.5% of pCAD patients relative to 12.2% of non-pCAD patients. Finally, myocardial infarction (MI) associated with spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) may result in similar clinical presentations as atherosclerotic pCAD. Recognizing the genetic and non-genetic causes underlying pCAD is important for appropriate prevention and treatment. Despite recent progress, pCAD remains incompletely understood, highlighting the need for both awareness and research.

The association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality: An umbrella review of systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume drinkers as a reference group

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality have reported different relative risk (RR) curves, possibly due to the choice of reference group. Results have varied from 'J-shaped' curves, where low-volume consumption is associated with reduced risk, to monotonically increased risk with increasing consumption. We summarised the evidence on alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality exclusively from systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers as the reference group.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic umbrella review of systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in prospective cohort studies using a reference group of lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers. Several databases (PubMed/Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/Cochrane Library) were searched to March 2022. Reviews were assessed for risk of bias, and those with reference groups containing former drinkers were excluded.

RESULTS

From 2149 articles retrieved, 25 systematic reviews were identified, and five did not include former drinkers in the reference group. Four of the five included reviews had high risk of bias. Three reviews reported a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality with significant decreased risk for low-volume drinking (RR range 0.84 to 0.95), while two reviews did not. The one review at low risk of bias reported monotonically increased risk with greater consumption (RRs = 1.02, 1.13, 1.33 and 1.52 for low-, medium-, high- and higher-volume drinking, respectively, compared with occasional drinking). All five reviews reported significantly increased risk with higher levels of alcohol consumption (RR range 1.28 to 3.70). Sub-group analyses were reported by sex and age; however, there were evidence gaps for many important factors. Conversely, 17 of 20 excluded systematic reviews reported decreased mortality risk for low-volume drinking.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 70% of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published to March 2022 of all-cause mortality risk associated with alcohol consumption did not exclude former drinkers from the reference group and may therefore be biased by the 'sick-quitter effect'.

Exploring the link between comorbidities and Alzheimer's dementia in the Australian Imaging, Biomarker & Lifestyle (AIBL) study

INTRODUCTION

Mounting evidence suggests that certain comorbidities may influence the clinical evolution of Alzheimer's dementia (AD).

METHODS

We conducted logistic regression analyses on the medical history and cognitive health diagnoses of participants in the Australian Imaging, Biomarker & Lifestyle study (n = 2443) to investigate cross-sectional associations between various comorbidities and mild cognitive impairment (MCI)/AD.

RESULTS

A mixture of associations were observed. Higher comorbidity of anxiety and other neurological disorders was associated with higher odds of AD, while arthritis, cancer, gastric complaints, high cholesterol, joint replacement, visual defect, kidney and liver disease were associated with lower odds of AD.

DISCUSSION

This study underscores the links between specific comorbidities and MCI/AD. Further research is needed to elucidate the longitudinal comorbidity-MCI/AD associations and underlying mechanisms of these associations.

Highlights

Comorbidities that significantly increased AD odds included anxiety and other neurological disorders.Arthritis, cancer, gastric complaints, high cholesterol, joint replacement, visual defect, kidney and liver disease were associated with lower odds of AD.Alcohol consumption had the most significant confounding effect in the study.Visual-AD association was modified by age, sex, and APOE ε4 allele status.Anxiety-AD and depression-AD associations were modified by sex.

Alcohol consumption and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality-a linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Many observational studies support light-to-moderate alcohol intake as potentially protective against premature death. We used a genetic approach to evaluate the linear and nonlinear relationships between alcohol consumption and mortality from different underlying causes.

METHODS

We used data from 278 093 white-British UK Biobank participants, aged 37-73 years at recruitment and with data on alcohol intake, genetic variants, and mortality. Habitual alcohol consumption was instrumented by 94 variants. Linear Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted using five complementary approaches, and nonlinear MR analyses by the doubly-ranked method.

RESULTS

There were 20 834 deaths during the follow-up (median 12.6 years). In conventional analysis, the association between alcohol consumption and mortality outcomes was 'J-shaped'. In contrast, MR analyses supported a positive linear association with premature mortality, with no evidence for curvature (Pnonlinearity ≥ 0.21 for all outcomes). The odds ratio [OR] for each standard unit increase in alcohol intake was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.39) for all-cause mortality, 1.30 (95% CI 1.10-1.53) for cardiovascular disease, 1.20 (95% CI 1.08-1.33) for cancer, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.36-3.12) for digestive disease mortality. These results were consistent across pleiotropy-robust methods. There was no clear evidence for an association between alcohol consumption and mortality from respiratory diseases or COVID-19 (1.32, 95% CI 0.96-1.83 and 1.46, 95% CI 0.99-2.16, respectively; Pnonlinearity ≥ 0.21).

CONCLUSION

Higher levels of genetically predicted alcohol consumption had a strong linear association with an increased risk of premature mortality with no evidence for any protective benefit at modest intake levels.

Should we remove wine from the Mediterranean diet?: a narrative review

Moderate alcohol intake (or, more specifically, red wine) represents one of the postulated beneficial components of the traditional Mediterranean diet. Many well-conducted nonrandomized studies have reported that light-to-moderate alcohol intake is not only associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, but also of all-cause mortality. Nonetheless, alcohol is an addictive substance imposing huge threats for public health. Alcohol consumption is associated with increased risks of cancer, neurological harms, injuries, and other adverse outcomes. Both the Global Burden of Disease (2016) and Mendelian randomization studies recently supported that the healthiest level of alcohol intake should be 0. Therefore, despite findings of conventional observational epidemiologic studies supporting a potential beneficial role of wine in the context of a healthy Mediterranean dietary pattern, a strong controversy remains on this issue. Age, sex, and drinking patterns are likely to be strong effect modifiers. In this context, a new 4-y noninferiority pragmatic trial in Spain (University of Navarra Alumni Trialist Initiative or "UNATI"), publicly funded by the European Research Council, will randomly assign >10,000 current drinkers (males, 50-70 y; females, 55-75 y) to repeatedly receive advice on either abstention or moderation in alcohol consumption. The recruitment will begin in mid-2024. The primary endpoint is a composite of the main clinical outcomes potentially related to alcohol intake including all-cause mortality. Clinical trial registry number: PREDIMED, ISRCTN35739639, www.predimed.es; SUN, clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT02669602, https://medpreventiva.es/i2CmeL.

Alcohol intake and cause-specific mortality: conventional and genetic evidence in a prospective cohort study of 512 000 adults in China

BACKGROUND

Genetic variants that affect alcohol use in East Asian populations could help assess the causal effects of alcohol consumption on cause-specific mortality. We aimed to investigate the associations between alcohol intake and cause-specific mortality using conventional and genetic epidemiological methods among more than 512 000 adults in China.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study enrolled 512 724 adults (210 205 men and 302 519 women) aged 30-79 years, during 2004-08. Residents with no major disabilities from ten diverse urban and rural areas of China were invited to participate, and alcohol use was self-reported. During 12 years of follow-up, 56 550 deaths were recorded through linkage to death registries, including 23 457 deaths among 168 050 participants genotyped for ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for cause-specific mortality by self-reported and genotype-predicted alcohol intake were estimated using Cox regression.

FINDINGS

33% of men drank alcohol most weeks. In conventional observational analyses, ex-drinkers, non-drinkers, and heavy drinkers had higher risks of death from most major causes than moderate drinkers. Among current drinkers, each 100 g/week higher alcohol intake was associated with higher mortality risks from cancers (HR 1·18 [95% CI 1·14-1·22]), cardiovascular disease (CVD; HR 1·19 [1·15-1·24]), liver diseases (HR 1·51 [1·27-1·78]), non-medical causes (HR 1·15 [1·08-1·23]), and all causes (HR 1·18 [1·15-1·20]). In men, ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984 genotypes predicted 60-fold differences in mean alcohol intake (4 g/week in the lowest group vs 255 g/week in the highest). Genotype-predicted alcohol intake was uniformly and positively associated with risks of death from all causes (n=12 939; HR 1·07 [95% CI 1·05-1·10]) and from pre-defined alcohol-related cancers (n=1274; 1·12 [1·04-1·21]), liver diseases (n=110; 1·31 [1·02-1·69]), and CVD (n=6109; 1·15 [1·10-1·19]), chiefly due to stroke (n=3285; 1·18 [1·12-1·24]) rather than ischaemic heart disease (n=2363; 1·06 [0·99-1·14]). Results were largely consistent using a polygenic score to predict alcohol intake, with higher intakes associated with higher risks of death from alcohol-related cancers, CVD, and all causes. Approximately 2% of women were current drinkers, and although power was low to assess observational associations of alcohol with mortality, the genetic evidence suggested that the excess risks in men were due to alcohol, not pleiotropy.

INTERPRETATION

Higher alcohol intake increased the risks of death overall and from major diseases for men in China. There was no genetic evidence of protection from moderate drinking for all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including CVD.

FUNDING

Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, GlaxoSmithKline, Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.

Association of Magnesium Depletion Score With Cardiovascular Disease and Its Association With Longitudinal Mortality in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease

Background Dietary magnesium and serum magnesium play an important part in cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the association between magnesium depletion score (MDS) and CVD development and prognosis remains unclear. This analysis examines the cross-sectional relationship between MDS and CVD, and the longitudinal association between MDS and all-cause and CVD mortality in individuals with CVD. Methods and Results In all, 42 711 individuals were selected from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, including 5015 subjects with CVD. The association between MDS and total and individual CVDs was examined using the survey-weighted multiple logistic regression analysis. Among 5011 patients with CVD, 2285 and 927 participants were recorded with all-cause and CVD deaths, respectively. We applied survey-weighted Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to investigate the impact of MDS on the mortality of individuals with CVD. The CVD group had higher MDS levels than the non-CVD groups. After controlling all confounding factors, individuals with MDS of 2 and ≥3 had higher odds of total CVD and specific CVD than those with MDS of 0. Besides, each 1-unit increase in MDS was strongly related to the risk of total CVD and specific CVD. The relationship between MDS and total CVD was stable and significant in all subgroups. The fully adjusted Cox regression model indicated that high MDS, irrespective of MDS as a categorical or continuous variable, was significantly associated with an elevated risk of all-cause and CVD deaths. Conclusions MDS is a vital risk factor for the prevalence and mortality of individuals with CVD.

Association between genetic predisposition and disease burden of stroke in China: a genetic epidemiological study

Background

Stroke ranks second worldwide and first in China as a leading cause of death and disability. It has a polygenic architecture and is influenced by environmental and lifestyle factors. However, it remains unknown as to whether and how much the genetic predisposition of stroke is associated with disease burden.

Methods

Allele frequency from the whole genome sequencing data in the Chinese Millionome Database of 141,418 individuals and trait-specific polygenic risk score models were applied to estimate the provincial genetic predisposition to stroke, stroke-related risk factors and stroke-related drug response. Disease burden including mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost(YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and prevalence in China was collected from the Global Burden Disease study. The association between stroke genetic predisposition and the epidemiological burden was assessed and then quantified in both regression-based models and machine learning-based models at a provincial resolution.

Findings

Among the 30 administrative divisions in China, the genetic predisposition of stroke was characterized by a north-higher-than-south gradient (p < 0.0001). Genetic predisposition to stroke, blood pressure, body mass index, and alcohol use were strongly intercorrelated (rho >0.6; p < 0.05 after Bonferroni correction for each comparison). Genetic risk imposed an independent effect of approximately 1-6% on mortality, DALYs and YLLs.

Interpretation

The distribution pattern of stroke genetic predisposition is different at a macroscopic level, and it subtly but significantly impacts the epidemiological burden. Further research is warranted to identify the detailed aetiology and potential translation into public health measures.

Funding

Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission (Z191100006619106), CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CAMS-I2M, 2023-I2M-1-001), the National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding (2022-GSP-GG-17), National Natural Science Foundation of China (32000398, 32171441 to X.J.), Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China (2017A030306026 to X.J.), and National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC2502402).

Interaction between the expression of hsa_circRPRD1A and hsa_circHERPUD2 and classical coronary risk factors promotes the development of coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggest that classical coronary risk factors play a significant role in the pathogenesis of coronary artery disease. Our study aims to explore the interaction of circRNA with classical coronary risk factors in coronary atherosclerotic disease.

METHOD

Combined analysis of RNA sequencing results from coronary segments and peripheral blood mononuclear cells of patients with coronary atherosclerotic disease was employed to identify critical circRNAs. Competing endogenous RNA networks were constructed by miRanda-3.3a and TargetScan7.0. The relative expression quantity of circRNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells was determined by qRT-PCR in a large cohort including 256 patients and 49 controls. Spearman's correlation test, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, multivariable logistic regression analysis, one-way analysis of variance, and crossover analysis were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 34 circRNAs were entered into our study, hsa_circRPRD1A, hsa_circHERPUD2, hsa_circLMBR1, and hsa_circDHTKD1 were selected for further investigation. A circRNA-miRNA-mRNA network is composed of 20 microRNAs and 66 mRNAs. The expression of hsa_circRPRD1A (P = 0.004) and hsa_circHERPUD2 (P = 0.003) were significantly down-regulated in patients with coronary artery disease compared to controls. The area under the curve of hsa_circRPRD1A and hsa_circHERPUD2 is 0.689 and 0.662, respectively. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses identified hsa_circRPRD1A (OR = 0.613, 95%CI:0.380-0.987, P = 0.044) as a protective factor for coronary artery disease. Based on the additive model, crossover analysis demonstrated that there was an antagonistic interaction between the expression of hsa_circHERPUD2 and alcohol consumption in subjects with coronary artery disease.

CONCLUSION

Our findings imply that hsa_circRPRD1A and hsa_circHERPUD2 could be used as biomarkers for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease and provide epidemiological support for the interactions between circRNAs and classical coronary risk factors.

Alcohol consumption and socioeconomic status associated with the risk of kidney cancer in a large Australian cohort study

PURPOSE

Studies have shown an inverse association between alcohol consumption and kidney cancer risk. We postulate that this inverse association may be further influenced by other risk factors.

METHODS

We used an Australian cohort, the 45 and Up Study recruited between 2005-2009 to investigate the association between alcohol consumption, and other potential risk factors and kidney cancer incidence. The median follow up was 5.4 years.

RESULTS

Of the 267 357 participants aged ≥45 years living in New South Wales, 497 were diagnosed with kidney cancer. There was a significant inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk of kidney cancer (p = 0.027), and a significant inverse dose-response relationship (p=0.011). There was significant interaction between alcohol consumption and socioeconomic status (p interaction = 0.001). Participants residing in higher socioeconomic areas (the two most advantaged quintiles) who consumed 8-10 drinks or >10 drinks per week, respectively, had a lower risk of kidney cancer compared to the group who consumed 1-4 drinks per week (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.15-0.76, HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.31-0.83) with a dose-response trend of HR 0.62 (95% CI 0.42-0.93) per 7 drink increase in weekly alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSION

There could be an inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk in those residents in higher socioeconomic areas.

DATA AVAILABILITY

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the Sax Institute (https://www.saxinstitute.org.au/our-work/45-up-study/).

Association between monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio and coronary heart disease in US adults in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2009-2018

BACKGROUND

Monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio (MHR) is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) events. The purpose of this study was to analyze the correlation between MHR and CHD in American adults from 2009 to 2018 in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) database.

METHODS

A total of 25 862 persons in the NHANES from 2009 to 2018 were included in the cross-sectional analysis. The independent variable was MHR and the outcome variable was CHD. MHR was obtained by dividing the number of monocytes by the high-density lipoprotein concentration, and whether it is CHD is obtained through a questionnaire. Univariate analysis, stratified analysis, and a multivariate linear regression model were used to study the correlation between MHR and CHD.

RESULTS

In each multivariate linear regression model, MHR was positively correlated with CHD, and this positive correlation was stable in both men and women [man odds ratio (OR): 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.17-2.03; woman OR: 2.21; 95% CI, 1.40-3.50]. Our results show that the association between MHR and CHD was significant until MHR was less than 0.6 (OR: 7.2; 95% CI, 4.0-13.0); however, in cases where MHR was greater than 0.6, the results were negative but not significantly different (OR: 0.6; 95% CI, 0.3-1.2).

CONCLUSION

MHR has a clear association with CHD. Our prediction model and validation model show that MHR is highly predictive and robust as a predictor of CHD, therefore it can play an important role in the prediction of CHD.

Insights into Causal Cardiovascular Risk Factors from Mendelian Randomization

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

This review summarizes major insights into causal risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) by using Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain unconfounded estimates, contextualized within its strengths and weaknesses.

RECENT FINDINGS

MR studies have confirmed the role of major CVD risk factors, including alcohol, smoking, adiposity, blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, lipids, and possibly inflammation, but added that the relation with alcohol is likely linear, confirmed the role of diastolic blood pressure, identified apolipoprotein B as the major target lipid, and foreshadowed results of some trials concerning anti-inflammatories. Identifying a healthy diet and the role of early life influences, such as birth weight, has proved more difficult. Use of MR has winnowed empirically driven hypotheses about CVD into a set of genetically validated targets of intervention. Greater inclusion of global diversity in genetic studies and the use of an overarching framework would enable even more informative MR studies.

Alcohol and Cardiovascular Diseases—Do the Consumption Pattern and Dose Make the Difference?

Excessive consumption of alcohol is not only a social problem, but it also significantly increases the morbidity and mortality rates of many societies. A correlation has been demonstrated between alcohol consumption and increased mortality from cancer, accidents and injuries, liver cirrhosis and other causes. Alcohol abuse increases the incidence of hemorrhagic stroke and the risk of ischemic stroke, induces serious arrhythmias, adversely affects blood pressure and damages the heart muscle. The dose and way of drinking alcohol play a crucial role in assessing whether this drink allows people to maintain health or whether it is a great health and social threat. The beneficial effects of low and moderate doses of alcohol on the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases have been shown in many population studies and meta-analyses in which the effect of U-shaped or J-shaped curves relating alcohol intake to cardiovascular mortality was observed, especially in ischemic heart disease. However, due to the fact that alcohol consumption is associated with many health hazards, it is not recommended to consume it as a preventive action of cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, recent studies suggest that association of low-to-moderate alcohol consumption with the reduction in cardiovascular risk is a result of lifestyle changes and that any reduction in alcohol consumption is in fact beneficial in terms of general health.