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Cheng Q, Jing Q, Collender PA, Head JR, Li Q, Yu H, Li Z, Ju Y, Chen T, Wang P, Cleary E, Lai S. Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1287678. [PMID: 38106890 PMCID: PMC10722414 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1287678] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Given the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk have reached conflicting conclusions, potentially due to the neglect of prior water availability in mosquito breeding sites as an effect modifier. Methods In this study, we addressed this research gap by considering the impact of prior water availability for the first time. We measured prior water availability as the cumulative precipitation over the preceding 8 weeks and utilized a distributed lag non-linear model stratified by the level of prior water availability to examine the association between dengue infection risk and heavy rainfall in Guangzhou, a dengue transmission hotspot in southern China. Results Our findings suggest that the effects of heavy rainfall are likely to be modified by prior water availability. A 24-55 day lagged impact of heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in dengue risk when prior water availability was low, with the greatest incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.37 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.02-1.83] occurring at a lag of 27 days. In contrast, a heavy rainfall lag of 7-121 days decreased dengue risk when prior water availability was high, with the lowest IRR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43-0.79), occurring at a lag of 45 days. Discussion These findings may help to reconcile the inconsistent conclusions reached by previous studies and improve our understanding of the complex relationship between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qu Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Qinlong Jing
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Philip A. Collender
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, , University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
| | - Jennifer R. Head
- Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
| | - Qi Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Hailan Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Zhichao Li
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Ju
- School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Peng Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Eimear Cleary
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Shengjie Lai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
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Cheng Q, Jing Q, Collender PA, Head JR, Li Q, Yu H, Li Z, Ju Y, Chen T, Wang P, Cleary E, Lai S. Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China. RESEARCH SQUARE 2023:rs.3.rs-3302421. [PMID: 37693392 PMCID: PMC10491345 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3302421/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/12/2023]
Abstract
Background Given the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk have reached conflicting conclusions. Methods In this study, we use a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the association between dengue infection risk and heavy rainfall in Guangzhou, a dengue transmission hotspot in southern China, stratified by prior water availability. Results Our findings suggest that the effects of heavy rainfall are likely to be modified by prior water availability. A 24-55 day lagged impact of heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in dengue risk when prior water availability was low, with the greatest incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.37 (95% credible interval (CI): 1.02-1.83) occurring at a lag of 27 days. In contrast, a heavy rainfall lag of 7-121 days decreased dengue risk when prior water availability was high, with the lowest IRR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43-0.79), occurring at a lag of 45 days. Conclusions These findings may help to reconcile the inconsistent conclusions reached by previous studies and improve our understanding of the complex relationship between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qu Cheng
- Huazhong University of Science and Technology
| | - Qinlong Jing
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | | | - Qi Li
- Huazhong University of Science and Technology
| | - Hailan Yu
- Huazhong University of Science and Technology
| | | | | | | | - Peng Wang
- Huazhong University of Science and Technology
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Tsuzuki S, Asai Y, Ibuka Y, Nakaya T, Ohmagari N, Hens N, Beutels P. Social contact patterns in Japan in the COVID-19 pandemic during and after the Tokyo Olympic Games. J Glob Health 2022; 12:05047. [DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.05047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Shinya Tsuzuki
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
- Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Yusuke Asai
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yoko Ibuka
- Faculty of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Tomoki Nakaya
- Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - Norio Ohmagari
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Niel Hens
- Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
- Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Data Science
| | - Philippe Beutels
- Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
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The importance of community during rapid development: The influence of social networks on acute gastrointestinal illness in rural Ecuador. SSM Popul Health 2022; 19:101159. [PMID: 35795263 PMCID: PMC9251719 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2021] [Revised: 05/10/2022] [Accepted: 06/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Social networks are often measured as conduits of infection. Our prior cross-sectional analyses found that denser social ties among individuals reduces transmission of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in coastal Ecuador; social networks can describe both risk and protection. We extend findings to examine how social connectedness influences AGI longitudinally in Ecuador from 2007 to 2013, a time of rapid development, using a two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate multiple network effects. A larger community network of people to discuss important matters with was consistently protective against AGI over time, and a network defined by people passing time together became a stronger measure of risk, due to increasing population density and travel. These networks were interdependent: the joint effect of having a small passing time network and large important matters network reduced the odds of AGI over time (2007: OR 1.16 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.44), 2013: OR 0.56 (95% CI: 0.45, 0.71)); and synergistic: the people an individual passed time with became the people they discussed important matters with. Focus groups emphasized that with greater remoteness came greater community cohesion resulting in safer WASH practices. Social networks can enhance and reduce health differently as social infrastructure evolves, highlighting the importance of community-level factors in a period of rapid development. Social connectedness, a construct often represented as social networks, plays an important role in public health. This construct can lead to both protection from and risk of infectious diseases, particularly during rapid development. Two types of longitudinal social network data from Ecuador were assessed: core discussion network and passing time network. The two types of social connections interact and contribute differentially to the reduction of acute gastrointestinal illness. In more remote areas, the strength of the community structure and organization was critical for disease reduction despite minimal road access.
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Wang LP, Han JY, Zhou SX, Yu LJ, Lu QB, Zhang XA, Zhang HY, Ren X, Zhang CH, Wang YF, Lin SH, Xu Q, Jiang BG, Lv CL, Chen JJ, Li CJ, Li ZJ, Yang Y, Liu W, Fang LQ, Hay SI, Gao GF, Yang WZ. The changing pattern of enteric pathogen infections in China during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nation-wide observational study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2021; 16:100268. [PMID: 34568854 PMCID: PMC8450280 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2021] [Revised: 08/12/2021] [Accepted: 08/19/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Background Non pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) including hand washing directives were implemented in China and worldwide to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, which are likely to have had impacted a broad spectrum of enteric pathogen infections. Methods Etiologically diagnostic data from 45 937 and 67 395 patients with acute diarrhea between 2012 and 2020, who were tested for seven viral pathogens and 13 bacteria respectively, were analyzed to assess the changes of enteric pathogen infections in China during the first COVID-19 pandemic year compared to pre-pandemic years. Findings Test positive rates of all enteric viruses decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012−2019, with a relative decrease of 71•75% for adenovirus, 58•76% for norovirus, 53•50% for rotavirus A, and 72•07% for the combination of other four uncommon viruses. In general, a larger reduction of positive rate in viruses was seen among adults than pediatric patients. A rebound of rotavirus A was seen after September 2020 in North China rather than South China. Test positive rates of bacteria decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012−2019, excepting for nontyphoidal Salmonella and Campylobacter coli with 66•53% and 90•48% increase respectively. This increase was larger for pediatric patients than for adult patients. Interpretation The activity of enteric pathogens changed profoundly alongside the NPIs implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Greater reductions of the test positive rates were found for almost all enteric viruses than for bacteria among acute diarrhea patients, with further large differences by age and geography. Lifting of NPIs will lead to resurgence of enteric pathogen infections, particularly in children whose immunity may not have been developed and/or waned. Funding China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention; National Natural Science Funds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li-Ping Wang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jia-Yi Han
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Shi-Xia Zhou
- Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.,State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Lin-Jie Yu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Qing-Bin Lu
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Xiao-Ai Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Hai-Yang Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Xiang Ren
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Cui-Hong Zhang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yi-Fei Wang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Sheng-Hong Lin
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Qiang Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Bao-Gui Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Chen-Long Lv
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Jin-Jin Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Chang-Jun Li
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Zhong-Jie Li
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U. S. A
| | - Wei Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China.,Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Li-Qun Fang
- Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.,State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China
| | - Simon I Hay
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington.,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
| | - George F Gao
- Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wei-Zhong Yang
- Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Zuo S, Yang L, Dou P, Ho HC, Dai S, Ma W, Ren Y, Huang C. The direct and interactive impacts of hydrological factors on bacillary dysentery across different geographical regions in central China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 764:144609. [PMID: 33385650 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2020] [Revised: 12/14/2020] [Accepted: 12/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies found non-linear mutual interactions among hydrometeorological factors on diarrheal disease. However, the complex interactions of the hydrometeorological, topographical and human activity factors need to be further explored. This study aimed to reveal how hydrological and other factors jointly influence bacillary dysentery in different geographical regions. Using Anhui Province in China, consisted of Huaibei plain, Jianghuai hilly and Wannan mountainous regions, we integrated multi-source data (6 meteorological, 3 hydrological, 2 topographic, and 9 socioeconomic variables) to explore the direct and interactive relationship between hydrological factors (quick flow, baseflow and local recharge) and other factors by combining the ecosystem model InVEST with spatial statistical analysis. The results showed hydrological factors had significant impact powers (q = 0.444 (Huaibei plain) for local recharge, 0.412 (Jianghuai hilly region) and 0.891 (Wannan mountainous region) for quick flow, respectively) on bacillary dysentery in different regions, but lost powers at provincial level. Land use and soil properties have created significant interactions with hydrological factors across Anhui province. Particularly, percentage of farmland in Anhui province can influence quick flow across Jianghuai, Wannan regions and the whole province, and it also has significant interactions with the baseflow and local recharge across the plain as well as the whole province. Percentage of urban areas had interactions with baseflow and local recharge in Jianghuai and Wannan regions. Additionally, baseflow and local recharge could be interacted with meteorological factors (e.g. temperature and wind speed), while these interactions varied in different regions. In conclusion, it was evident that hydrological factors had significant impacts on bacillary dysentery, and also interacted significantly with meteorological and socioeconomic factors. This study applying ecosystem model and spatial analysis help reveal the complex and nonlinear transmission of bacillary dysentery in different geographical regions, supporting the development of precise public health interventions with consideration of hydrological factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shudi Zuo
- Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, China
| | - Lianping Yang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
| | - Panfeng Dou
- Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, China
| | - Hung Chak Ho
- Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Shaoqing Dai
- Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yin Ren
- Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
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